Valuetainment - November 07, 2025


Triangular Diplomacy： Geopolitical Chess Move That Destroyed USSR & Built China


Episode Stats

Length

12 minutes

Words per Minute

197.75131

Word Count

2,562

Sentence Count

189

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

21


Summary

In this episode, I talk about the power of triangular diplomacy and how it can be used to deal with the world's most powerful nations. President Trump is trying to figure out who is a better ally to China and Russia, and the answer may surprise you.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 For many years, I would ask the question, why would Nixon help China become a behemoth in 1971, 1972?
00:00:06.240 Why would you have Kissinger fake, he's sick, Pakistan goes to China, brokers a deal on the way back in India,
00:00:12.880 he gets sick, so he can fool everybody all of a sudden, and all of a sudden, the deal gets done.
00:00:16.820 But at the time, who was their enemy? It wasn't China. China was barely a top-ten economy in the world.
00:00:21.220 Nobody woke up in the morning worrying about what China was going to do.
00:00:23.760 But there was another country called USSR that was a behemoth.
00:00:28.500 And Nixon and Kissinger used an old idea from Otto von Bismarck, the previous chancellor in Germany in the 1800s.
00:00:37.200 While he is not the biggest country in the world, not militarily, nor GDP,
00:00:41.520 but he used this triangular diplomacy to decide how to get along and work with France when they were the enemy.
00:00:47.980 Italy, Austria, all these guys. And he was able to pull it off.
00:00:51.200 Kissinger brought it up. However, that may have been a good decision in the 70s,
00:00:56.060 but that has cost us a lot of issues today, because China's now a behemoth,
00:01:00.960 and President Trump is trying to decide who is a better ally today.
00:01:06.720 Does he side with China? Does he side with Russia?
00:01:09.620 We're going to talk about that today.
00:01:11.120 All right, if you get value yet, it's free to give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
00:01:21.860 Stick around to the very end. I'm going to give you the PDF to all the notes on where to go to get them.
00:01:25.240 Having said that, let's get right into it.
00:01:27.080 Two key words for this triangular diplomacy to work.
00:01:32.100 But before we do that, many times when you think about, well, Pat, wouldn't it be awesome
00:01:36.940 if U.S. got along with China and with Russia and we all did business together?
00:01:42.800 China does business with U.S., you know, Russia does business with U.S.,
00:01:46.760 and Russia and China do business together, and it's utopia.
00:01:49.920 Wouldn't you want that? Wouldn't that be awesome?
00:01:52.180 Nope, this wouldn't work, because there's two things you need for you to be able to drive and move.
00:01:56.720 We're going to talk about those two T words at the end.
00:01:59.340 And this next one is where some may say, well, wouldn't it be great if U.S. has great relationship with China?
00:02:04.520 We're doing business with them. Russia's doing business with us.
00:02:07.280 We're doing business with them. But China and Russia don't get along.
00:02:10.360 This is also tough to do because they need each other for oil, business, their neighbors.
00:02:15.540 They have to find a way to do something together, right?
00:02:18.600 Number three is what? U.S. has a good relationship with China, bad with Russia, and China's bad with Russia.
00:02:24.480 That's ideal. You pick and choose one side.
00:02:26.540 The other one is U.S. has a good relationship with Russia, bad with China, and China and Russia don't have the advantage.
00:02:33.620 So you're able to leverage one of the relationships to get this person to work with you on things that you need.
00:02:38.700 And the worst possible situation is what?
00:02:41.500 For U.S. to not have a good relationship with China, not have a good relationship with Russia,
00:02:46.060 and you get these two guys to become great with you, you're in deep trouble.
00:02:50.480 So the two things you need, the two T-words, one of them is trust, the other T-word is tension.
00:02:57.220 You need trust, and you need tension.
00:02:59.520 Whether the tension is with Russia, but there's trust here, or vice versa,
00:03:04.780 now you can actually drive some of your motives that you have in place.
00:03:08.960 Today, the president is on one hand trying to do stuff with Putin,
00:03:12.840 and then all of a sudden he notices Putin is not playing ball, he's making it difficult.
00:03:17.000 Then all of a sudden, publicly, he comes out, says things to Putin,
00:03:20.100 and then he says, I think we're going to figure things out with China.
00:03:22.900 And then he goes to China, puts sanctions on Russia, puts sanctions on Russia,
00:03:27.420 and then what happens all of a sudden?
00:03:29.000 This is the scenario.
00:03:30.460 I'm going to put sanctions on Russia when it comes down to buying and doing business with them.
00:03:34.300 What do Chinese business owners say?
00:03:36.080 Hey, guys, we can't buy oil from you.
00:03:38.340 Why?
00:03:38.960 Because he just put sanctions on us.
00:03:40.760 Wait a minute, are you kidding me?
00:03:41.960 No, I'm not.
00:03:43.160 Who are the two countries Russia relies on to buy oil from them?
00:03:46.060 Number one is China, and number two is India.
00:03:48.080 You can't be doing that.
00:03:49.600 Then India, Modi says, I'm going to go buy oil from Russia,
00:03:54.120 and then the U.S. is like, wait a minute, Modi, what are you doing?
00:03:56.140 So then Trump has to go to Pakistan and kind of work with,
00:03:59.060 you understand how this works out.
00:04:00.120 So this is the triangular to be able to use a little bit of tension and a little bit of trust.
00:04:03.880 But let's take a look at this on how this whole thing works out.
00:04:06.600 When we look at history, when we look at history, this is what you'll find, okay?
00:04:10.700 In 1973, this is the size of army, the biggest size of the army in the world.
00:04:18.340 Soviet Union is number one, and number two is China.
00:04:21.360 They're relatively right next to each other.
00:04:23.400 We're number three when it comes down to size.
00:04:25.540 When it comes down to GDP in 1973, guess what you'll see here, okay?
00:04:30.840 We're number one GDP by a mile.
00:04:32.920 Who's number two?
00:04:33.620 Soviet Union.
00:04:34.740 Pay attention very closely to this.
00:04:36.780 Soviet Union is number two.
00:04:37.900 Where is China?
00:04:39.340 China is all the way down here.
00:04:40.960 Very small GDP.
00:04:42.400 Nixon opens it up, and China one by one by one.
00:04:45.940 They take out Canada, Italy, UK, France, West Germany, Japan, Soviet Union.
00:04:50.620 There's only one country left.
00:04:51.920 So you look at this, you're like, well, okay, at the time, why did we open them up?
00:04:57.560 Well, because Russia was starting to become so powerful.
00:05:00.900 Kissinger and Nixon needed a little bit of tension for them to become humble again.
00:05:05.500 Again, we can help China because they have what?
00:05:08.700 They have a ton of people that live there.
00:05:10.700 They have a ton of workers.
00:05:12.180 We can produce products cheap.
00:05:13.820 We can benefit from their manufacturing, and then we can essentially humble who?
00:05:17.900 Hey, Soviet, you're getting a little too arrogant.
00:05:20.400 Pump the brakes.
00:05:21.100 Now watch.
00:05:21.980 Let's continue when we're looking at this on a couple of the other slides.
00:05:25.600 Go to 1881, okay?
00:05:27.320 This is the story of Autobahn Bismarck that we're talking about.
00:05:30.740 In 1881, this is GDP, UK is number one, US is number two, France is three, Germany is four.
00:05:38.080 That's Bismarck.
00:05:39.120 Russia, and suddenly you're looking at an 1881 military size.
00:05:43.080 Russia's massive, okay?
00:05:45.080 France is second.
00:05:46.480 Then you have the Queen Dynasty, German Empire.
00:05:48.800 He's sitting in between Hungary, in between France, in between all of these guys.
00:05:55.160 He's trying to find a way, what are we going to do about this?
00:05:57.240 So for him, in 1873, he creates the alliances.
00:06:01.400 Who was the first one in the Three Emperors League?
00:06:03.440 Germany, Austria, Russia.
00:06:04.940 He's protected against two.
00:06:06.520 He isolates France.
00:06:07.720 This is Bismarck that we're talking about.
00:06:11.100 1879, it's a dual alliance.
00:06:12.620 Him and Germany and Austria and Hungary.
00:06:15.180 Mutual defense against Russia.
00:06:17.060 1881, 1884, three Emperor Alliance.
00:06:19.580 Germany, Austria, Russia again.
00:06:21.520 Same thing, 1882, Triple Alliance.
00:06:23.220 Germany, Austria, Italy this time.
00:06:25.060 Against France.
00:06:26.240 This is how he was able to protect himself against possibly being bullied,
00:06:31.280 even though they were not the biggest.
00:06:32.620 Now, stay with me here.
00:06:34.140 When we go and take a look at 2024 and where we are today,
00:06:40.400 now look where we are.
00:06:41.560 China went from 8 or number 9, economy to number 2.
00:06:44.520 And when Russia was all the way at the top, you know where Russia's at now?
00:06:48.080 Russia drops to barely number 9 on the list, number 10 on the list.
00:06:52.840 Why?
00:06:53.600 Because at that time, Kissinger and Nixon are trying to find a way to humble USSR
00:06:59.820 from becoming too powerful.
00:07:01.800 People, they chose a not-as-strong ally that the other country needs.
00:07:07.340 They sided with China.
00:07:09.220 It was a temporary win in the 70s and the 80s.
00:07:12.380 But today in 2025, they helped a small little country that didn't have a lot of GDP.
00:07:17.900 China had a lot of people, not a lot of GDP.
00:07:20.520 And now they're standing up here.
00:07:22.360 And where's Russia at now?
00:07:23.600 All the way at 10th place.
00:07:24.920 So now that's GDP.
00:07:25.920 If we look at military size, look what's going on today, okay?
00:07:29.640 What do you see?
00:07:30.360 China, military size, 2025, massive.
00:07:34.700 India, number 2, massive.
00:07:37.260 Out of nowhere.
00:07:38.460 U.S. is 3.
00:07:39.380 Look who's behind U.S.
00:07:40.760 North Korea.
00:07:41.620 Look at Russia.
00:07:42.800 It is such a close race.
00:07:45.040 It's never been like this when you're looking.
00:07:47.260 So then you have to go down here and kind of look at, well, because it's always choosing
00:07:50.480 number 3 against 2.
00:07:52.140 Because 2 is powerful.
00:07:53.180 So 2 and 3 together beats you.
00:07:55.600 But if you side with 3, 2 has to listen to you.
00:07:58.060 So in this case, even though Trump would ideally like to go with Russia to team up against China,
00:08:05.240 but they're not playing ball.
00:08:06.620 And Putin's like, look, man, I'm not going to be easy with you because I'm trying to get
00:08:09.820 what I want from Ukraine.
00:08:11.520 And then this is when all of a sudden he also flips it on Russia.
00:08:14.100 It's like, really?
00:08:14.620 Then I'm going to go side with Ukraine.
00:08:16.100 Hey, no problem.
00:08:16.880 Do whatever you want to do with the things you have.
00:08:18.320 But wait a minute.
00:08:18.820 Why are you going there?
00:08:19.540 Again, 1 with 3 against 2.
00:08:23.600 1 with 3 against 1.
00:08:25.900 In this case, military that we're looking at, not GDP.
00:08:28.540 So let me bring it back to you on what we're talking about here and how this applies to
00:08:32.160 today.
00:08:33.020 So while we're talking about all this, the ideal situation that Trump would probably want
00:08:39.300 to follow the triangular diplomacy of Kissinger as well as Bismarck would be for the relationship
00:08:46.040 to be better here, to put pressure here.
00:08:49.400 But he's not playing ball.
00:08:50.880 So if he doesn't play ball, what do you do in a situation like this?
00:08:54.140 These are a few things that comes to mind for you to be thinking about, okay?
00:08:58.360 What matters here, outside of the two words, Trump is an expert at creating tension, expert
00:09:04.400 at creating tension.
00:09:05.700 He uses tariffs.
00:09:06.840 He uses sanctions.
00:09:07.820 He uses things he says on social media, posts he put on truth.
00:09:11.400 He is so good at creating tension.
00:09:14.780 But now it's going to come down to what vision is he going to be selling?
00:09:19.860 Hey, China, let's work together because imagine if dot, dot, dot.
00:09:23.860 Hey, Russia, imagine if, and then you may be selling a vision and a plan that's very
00:09:29.860 good, but maybe the other party is not wanting to play ball.
00:09:33.380 So if they're not, Putin's like, I'm not going to play ball.
00:09:35.960 Then you have to leverage, which your leverage is what?
00:09:39.020 Sanctions, tariffs, public humiliation, everything that he'll use.
00:09:44.080 And then you have to make sure you bring your biggest diplomats that everybody get diplomacy
00:09:48.640 done.
00:09:49.800 Patience.
00:09:50.700 There's an element of unpredictability, which we know the president has.
00:09:53.840 And last but not least, say if you're Putin and he comes to the table and figures things
00:09:59.540 out with Ukraine, Trump has to figure out a way to do, again, this was my opinion.
00:10:05.380 I could be fully wrong.
00:10:06.840 Trump has to figure out a way to do this while Putin still saves face in front of his people
00:10:14.300 and in front of the world stage.
00:10:16.580 This applies to China.
00:10:17.900 This applies to India.
00:10:19.540 This applies to Putin.
00:10:20.920 This applies to Zelensky.
00:10:22.280 This applies to all of them.
00:10:23.780 This skill set of helping the other person save face is a very, very important skill
00:10:30.340 set in this arena.
00:10:32.080 Very, very.
00:10:32.900 You know why?
00:10:33.660 Because every one of these guys that is doing what they're doing for their country,
00:10:38.040 what do you think they are?
00:10:38.800 If we say we're America first, what do you think Putin is?
00:10:40.980 Russia first?
00:10:41.800 What do you think Xi is?
00:10:43.240 China first?
00:10:44.000 What do you think Modi is?
00:10:45.260 India first?
00:10:46.420 You have to make sure and understand that these guys are driven by their legacy and their
00:10:50.600 history books.
00:10:51.580 What are history books going to say about Putin?
00:10:53.720 What are their history books going to say about them?
00:10:55.820 Of course, many of these guys can kind of make it good about them, but they want to make
00:10:59.160 sure it looks and says, President Putin or President Xi, Prime Minister this, Prime Minister
00:11:04.740 that was part of the most incredible peace tariff deal in the history.
00:11:08.840 He has to do that, and President Trump is very capable of doing this.
00:11:13.140 So in this situation, everything that we talked about right now could change.
00:11:16.560 You know why it could change?
00:11:17.480 Because you can't control what the leaders are going to be doing.
00:11:19.600 We don't know what China's going to do.
00:11:20.940 We don't know what Russia's going to do.
00:11:22.500 But my prediction, if this tariff deal gets done with China and they figure something out
00:11:28.360 and the announcement is made, it'll be a day where the market can go up 3% to 5% in one
00:11:35.280 day.
00:11:35.780 When that announcement is made, it'll go up 3% to 5%.
00:11:39.180 And if a bunch of these things get done, Russia, Ukraine, the tariffs with China, the
00:11:46.140 sanctions being lifted on Russia, let's say all that gets done before 2026 World Cup,
00:11:51.300 you know what World Cup could be seen as?
00:11:53.680 With all the enemies being in the same room together, you know what that could look like
00:11:56.920 with the competition, with the tournament, with the market opening up, but oh, 250 year
00:12:00.960 anniversary of US, it could be a very, very special year in 2026.
00:12:07.420 But that comes down to what Xi and what Putin want to do and if they want to play ball with
00:12:13.120 the president or not.
00:12:14.380 If you got value out of this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
00:12:17.400 If you want all the notes, and by the way, we got a ton of research in here that I haven't
00:12:21.980 covered, go to the Manek Circle, the QR code is going to be somewhere around here, download
00:12:26.340 the app, get the notes for free, that will give it to you to share it and study and do
00:12:30.780 whatever you want to do with it.
00:12:32.000 And if you want to learn more about Henry Kissinger, what an interesting, who was this
00:12:35.440 guy?
00:12:36.320 Well, why is this guy such an interesting guy?
00:12:38.080 President Trump the other day said, I believe Marco Rubio is going to go down as better Secretary
00:12:43.740 of State than what Kissinger did because Kissinger would leak information.
00:12:48.740 He said that.
00:12:49.420 Just a few weeks ago, he said this.
00:12:51.200 So if you want to learn more about Kissinger, click here to watch the video.
00:12:54.460 Take care, everybody.
00:12:55.120 Bye-bye, bye-bye.
00:12:56.340 Bye-bye.