Valuetainment - October 04, 2023


Trillion Dollar Consulting Industry That Rules The World - The McKinsey, BCG & Bain Influence


Episode Stats

Length

17 minutes

Words per Minute

213.42421

Word Count

3,716

Sentence Count

295


Summary

McKinsey & Company is the most influential company in the world. Since 2008, they have obtained $940 million worth of federal contracts with the DoD being its top client. And by the way, they don t even flinch when they do it nowadays. And matter of fact, this has become so powerful that Fortune 500 companies as well as government, like government employees, prime ministers, and presidents are coming from these big consulting firms.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 So did you know the business of Ideas?
00:00:01.640 Yes, Ideas is officially a trillion-dollar industry per year.
00:00:05.440 That means people spend a trillion dollars per year simply for advice.
00:00:10.100 A Tim's Donut and Coffee is the original collab.
00:00:12.560 And now, any classic donut is a dollar when you buy any size original or dark roast coffee.
00:00:16.760 Get a deal on the iconic duo with a Tim's Dollar Donut.
00:00:19.780 Plus tax at participating restaurants for limited time.
00:00:21.780 Terms apply. See app for details.
00:00:23.180 It's time for Tim's.
00:00:25.200 You ever heard of a company called Verizon?
00:00:26.780 Did you know they gave?
00:00:27.900 Not $10 million.
00:00:28.720 Not $20 million.
00:00:29.420 They gave $120 million to McKinsey over two years.
00:00:32.640 You know for what?
00:00:33.400 Purely for consulting and advice.
00:00:35.140 And by the way, they don't even flinch when they're doing it nowadays.
00:00:37.480 And matter of fact, this has become so powerful that Fortune 500 companies,
00:00:40.840 as well as government, like government employees, prime ministers, presidents,
00:00:44.060 are coming from these big consulting firms.
00:00:46.920 Let me give you a list of these names.
00:00:48.480 CEO of Google is a McKinsey alumni.
00:00:50.360 So is COO of Facebook.
00:00:51.920 CEO of Morgan Stanley, Vodafone, Lego, Boeing, Best Buy, Levi.
00:00:55.480 You know who also is a McKinsey alumni?
00:00:56.960 Chelsea Clinton.
00:00:57.900 Let me continue.
00:00:58.500 This is BCG alumni.
00:01:00.120 Ready?
00:01:00.740 Benjamin Netanyahu was a BCG consultant.
00:01:03.760 Bain founder used to be a BCG consultant.
00:01:06.560 John Legend, Grammy award winner, was a BCG consultant.
00:01:09.940 Here's a Bain alumni where they're working at now.
00:01:12.080 Ready?
00:01:12.460 CEO of Nike, American Express YouTube, all Bain alumnis.
00:01:15.820 Mitt Romney used to be at Bain.
00:01:17.560 CEO of Dell, co-founder of Intuit.
00:01:19.600 So you may be asking, Pat, I don't understand where you're going with this.
00:01:22.000 Do you want me to go be a consultant on McKinsey or Bain or BCG?
00:01:24.200 No, what I'm trying to tell you is, it's no longer about the $120 million contract of Verizon with McKinsey.
00:01:29.620 Today, the average person is willing to pay you for your expertise if you become a consultant.
00:01:35.500 Not with McKinsey, with yourself.
00:01:37.640 And we're going to talk about that today.
00:01:38.900 Okay, so if you get value out of this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
00:01:51.400 Let's get right into it.
00:01:52.360 Let's talk about what many call is the most influential company in the world, McKinsey & Company.
00:01:57.520 So first of all, they have offices in 130 cities in 65 countries.
00:02:01.560 They advise clients like Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Disney, U.S. Department of Energy, FDA, Postal Service, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
00:02:07.900 Since 2008, they have obtained $940 million worth of federal contracts.
00:02:13.020 With the DoD being its top client, received $120 million from Verizon over a two-year period, $13 million from U.S. Steel over a three-year period.
00:02:21.200 Advising senior officials on developing technology for the Air Force and Space Force to evaluating the management of the F-35 program.
00:02:28.240 They've consulted Russian weapons manufacturer, Rostec.
00:02:30.940 They've advised China Communications and the government-owned engineering company responsible for building man-made islands in the South China Sea.
00:02:37.840 In 2016, the same year they were advising China Communications, in 2016, in a year which McKinsey carried 64 contracts for the U.S. government, they also carried 137 contracts for Saudi Arabia.
00:02:49.660 They advised opioid makers, Purdue Pharma, Indopharmaceuticals, Johnson & Johnson, and Mallinckrodt to help them deal with regulators, secure approval for new products, adopt aggressive strategies to increase sales, recommendation that Purdue Pharma turbocharge its sales of Oxycontin, work as a management consulting firm for the opioid industry over a 15-year period.
00:03:07.320 They work with Juul from 2017 to 2019.
00:03:09.740 You know what Juul does?
00:03:10.460 It's that vape company.
00:03:11.460 I'm sure you've heard of Juul.
00:03:12.440 Tobacco companies, insurance, and hospitals.
00:03:14.800 You name it, they've done it all.
00:03:16.120 And by the way, I can tell you the same thing with Bain and BCG.
00:03:18.860 I'm trying to give you a history of how powerful some of these companies are.
00:03:21.380 So when it comes on to consulting companies, they talk about three different types.
00:03:25.080 One is the MBB, you'll hear about.
00:03:27.140 One is M stands for McKinsey & Company, B stands for Bain & Company, and the other B stands for BCG.
00:03:32.300 They're known for being the most prestigious strategy and management consulting firms in the world.
00:03:36.920 Then the big four firms are Deloitte, PwC, EY, and KPMG.
00:03:40.800 These are all the management consulting and accounting services referred to as the big four as they're the largest accounting firms.
00:03:46.520 Of course, accounting is consulting.
00:03:48.400 These guys are more strategy.
00:03:49.960 So for strategy, it's more BCG, McKinsey, and Bain.
00:03:53.020 But since they add accounting, which is part of consulting, these are the guys who are considered the big four.
00:03:57.460 And then you have the boutique consulting firms.
00:03:59.140 You can talk about Oliver Wyman, PA, LEK, Rollenberger.
00:04:02.740 And these guys focus on specialized expertise or geographically localized.
00:04:06.760 The term Tier 2 and Tier 3 and boutique are used for this group.
00:04:11.000 And by the way, I would add two other types of consulting firms to this.
00:04:14.280 One being the types that target companies doing a million dollars per year up to a half a billion dollars per year.
00:04:19.480 These guys are not interested in these companies.
00:04:21.120 They're more interested in the bigger companies, the S&P 500, the Fortune 500 type of companies.
00:04:25.200 And the last type of consulting firm is you.
00:04:26.920 What do I mean by you?
00:04:27.820 What if you have a successful marriage of 32 years?
00:04:30.360 How did you do it?
00:04:31.040 People want to know about that.
00:04:32.060 They're willing to pay for it.
00:04:33.080 What if you run a YouTube channel with 100,000 subs?
00:04:35.160 How many people are stuck at 5,000 or 10,000 subs?
00:04:37.860 They want to learn from you.
00:04:39.060 What if you're an expert at ChatGBT?
00:04:40.480 The other day at a conference I was hosting, I said, raise your hand if you know how to use AI and ChatGBT.
00:04:45.400 Out of 400 people in a room, less than 10 people raised their hands.
00:04:48.440 The other 390, they don't know how to use it.
00:04:50.200 What if you know how to do it?
00:04:51.380 People will ask you, I'm an expert in AI and ChatGBT.
00:04:55.000 What if it's relationship, finance, business, college planning, dating, funnels, equipment to buy?
00:05:00.720 I can go on and on and on.
00:05:02.100 There's also a place for those type of consultants like you.
00:05:06.180 So you may be asking, Pat, how do I take advantage of this?
00:05:08.240 I'm not, I don't know how to start a consulting firm.
00:05:10.160 I totally get it.
00:05:10.980 I'll give you counsel on that at the end.
00:05:12.460 All I'm saying is the consulting industry, the business of ideas is changing.
00:05:16.860 So before I give you that, let's look at how the industry's changed the last 200 years.
00:05:21.260 Industrial revolution in the mid-1800s.
00:05:23.500 During this revolution, scientific management was introduced.
00:05:26.580 Using these techniques, firms increased their operational efficiency by analyzing and optimizing
00:05:31.940 each step of a task.
00:05:33.480 Widely embraced by the U.S. factory managers in the early 20th century as they scrambled
00:05:37.940 for efficiency and required measures to speed up their workers' performance.
00:05:42.220 Then came the management consultancy in the early 1900s, assisting managers in making choices,
00:05:47.460 improving processes, solving problems.
00:05:49.460 New kinds of manufacturing sparked growth and increased requirements companies' traditional
00:05:52.980 capabilities in 1914.
00:05:55.020 Booz Allen Hamilton was founded and became the first management consultancy to engage with
00:05:59.280 government and industry.
00:06:00.720 If you want to know who worked at Booz Allen, maybe you know John McAfee from McAfee Antivirus
00:06:04.280 or Snowden.
00:06:05.160 Both of them used to work at Booz Allen.
00:06:06.800 Then came demand for financial advice after the Great Depression of the 1920s.
00:06:10.920 Following the Great Financial Crisis of 1929, the Glass-Steagall Banking Act in 1933
00:06:15.500 separated commercial banking from investment banking and created the need for a new strategy
00:06:20.400 in banking.
00:06:21.400 This new law triggered rapid growth in demand for expert advice in banking, finance, management
00:06:26.620 strategy, and organization, which boosted the consulting industry.
00:06:30.060 McKinsey & Company, founded in 1926, was one of the first consulting firms to specialize
00:06:34.940 in both accounting and strategy.
00:06:37.280 Do you notice how the industry of advice and ideas was evolving?
00:06:40.220 Like people are asking for new advice, just like it is today, how they may need your advice.
00:06:44.880 Then came strategy revolution.
00:06:46.400 This is in the 60s and 70s.
00:06:47.820 The post-World War II prosperity in America created an environment where little attention
00:06:51.880 was given to finding a competitive edge in business.
00:06:54.540 Between 1948 and 1973, there was very little international competition in business.
00:06:58.660 Dow Jones bull market through 50s and 60s crashed during the 70s and took 25 years to recover.
00:07:04.000 This is when the strategy revolution began.
00:07:06.140 The recession and the oil shock of the 70s created the need for strategic consulting services.
00:07:11.620 So you may say, Pat, at a downturn?
00:07:13.420 Yes.
00:07:13.760 Why?
00:07:14.140 Okay, take a look at the Dow Jones real quick here.
00:07:16.040 If you look at the chart, you look at 1960-something when it peaked, right?
00:07:19.280 Look what happened the next 20 years, how it drops.
00:07:21.800 What happens when a company peaks?
00:07:23.320 People become cocky.
00:07:24.400 They become arrogant.
00:07:25.300 They know it all.
00:07:25.980 They no longer ask for advice.
00:07:27.120 They no longer hire anybody.
00:07:28.140 Oh, we know what we're doing.
00:07:29.260 We don't need your help.
00:07:29.980 And it takes 25 years for the Dow to recover because finally people came to their senses.
00:07:35.660 We need help.
00:07:37.320 We need different people's POV to change our business.
00:07:41.260 I remember clearly, I can give you five examples of counsel I got that revolutionized our company.
00:07:47.940 I remember one time sitting down with a guy in New York about EBITDA.
00:07:50.520 I'm building an insurance company.
00:07:51.800 He says, Pat, you can have a company doing $10 million a year,
00:07:54.580 and this company could be worth seven times EBITDA.
00:07:56.900 Let's just say $70 million.
00:07:57.860 But that another company here is doing $10 million a year,
00:08:01.040 but they're a tech-enabled company.
00:08:02.620 They're worth 15 times.
00:08:03.820 I said, let me get this straight.
00:08:05.200 Both companies are profiting $10 million.
00:08:07.140 Yes.
00:08:07.940 One will only get seven times.
00:08:09.680 The other one will get 15 times.
00:08:10.860 Yes.
00:08:11.340 Why?
00:08:11.960 Because this is tech-enabled, and the company that buys it are not just buying the EBITDA.
00:08:16.500 They're also buying the technology.
00:08:18.440 Immediately, we went and spent $3 to $5 million investing in the technology,
00:08:22.060 and we ended up selling around 15 times EBITDA just because of this one advice.
00:08:27.300 What do you think that one advice was worth to me?
00:08:30.280 Priceless.
00:08:31.040 That's the whole idea where people become cocky and do no longer ask for advice.
00:08:34.700 All of a sudden, they experience a plateau in their business or a downfall.
00:08:38.200 And this is when ideas started coming up like different philosophies by a legendary guy in
00:08:42.080 consulting, Bruce Henderson from BCG.
00:08:44.000 The growth share metrics, which was helping companies evaluate where and how to allocate
00:08:47.780 cash among their business units or the experience curve.
00:08:51.040 This models the evolution of cost with the number of units produced for the first time,
00:08:54.420 could use your volume to predict cost.
00:08:56.240 By knowing your cost, you could price appropriately.
00:08:58.260 The old-school pricing method was to price the new product high to recoup investment.
00:09:02.020 The problem with that was that it allowed competitors to capture market share.
00:09:05.320 So in other words, what he's trying to say is instead of trying to make it as profitable
00:09:07.800 as possible with your product, go sell it at a price point that can get such a big market
00:09:12.020 share of that product that your competitors can no longer compete with you.
00:09:15.460 And by the way, he did this with a couple of companies.
00:09:17.140 One of them being Texas Instruments Calculator.
00:09:18.980 You've heard of TI before.
00:09:20.020 In 1950, TI was a leading electronics manufacturer and its biggest customer was DOD, Department
00:09:24.860 of Defense.
00:09:25.640 So even though they were doing good getting these types of accounts, they wanted to expand
00:09:28.480 customer base.
00:09:29.280 And when looking for products that incorporated integrated circuits and could be sold in consumer
00:09:33.920 markets rather than just DOD, they decided on personal calculators.
00:09:37.680 So they invented the personal calculator in 1967, which was small and portable.
00:09:41.580 This was a big deal because at the time, the previous calculator just a year prior to that was 55
00:09:46.260 pounds and it cost $2,500 to buy.
00:09:48.740 The average person cannot spend $2,500 in 1966 to buy a calculator.
00:09:54.060 And they decided to price the calculator at $500 a piece, thinking they were being competitive
00:09:57.900 compared to the $2,500.
00:09:59.460 So then Texas Instruments hires BCG and they made a bold suggestion based on their assessment.
00:10:04.340 Instead of selling it for $500 a calculator, they said you should sell it for $10 a calculator.
00:10:09.340 Can you imagine the look on their faces?
00:10:10.660 Wait a minute.
00:10:11.180 These guys are selling for $2,500.
00:10:12.880 We're doing $500.
00:10:13.900 Why would we go all the way down to $10?
00:10:16.400 Have you lost your mind?
00:10:17.240 They said, no, here's why we suggest you do this.
00:10:20.000 So eventually, TI trusts them.
00:10:21.380 You know what happens to TI?
00:10:22.360 In 1971, they sell 3 million calculators.
00:10:24.860 73, 17 million.
00:10:26.700 74, 28 million.
00:10:28.380 75, 45 million.
00:10:30.020 Can you imagine you're selling 45 million calculators in 1975?
00:10:33.240 Who is the other calculator company you can even think about?
00:10:35.760 Can you think of?
00:10:36.320 I know you're going to say, well, I use my smartphone.
00:10:37.980 I get it.
00:10:38.680 But back then, name another calculator company.
00:10:40.840 You can't.
00:10:41.720 They dominated the marketplace.
00:10:43.500 So what ends up happening?
00:10:44.760 J. Fred Busey, who drove this initiative, ended up getting promoted to the company president
00:10:48.740 in 76, NCO in 84.
00:10:51.540 Today, Texas Instruments has a market cap of, ready, $162 billion.
00:10:56.460 And many of you watching this, you probably don't even know who TI is.
00:10:59.480 Some of you who do, you're probably above 35 years old.
00:11:02.160 So what's the point?
00:11:03.280 One idea turned them into a Fortune 500 company.
00:11:06.680 This is why a trillion dollars is spent every year on ideas.
00:11:11.120 And these companies realize they're one great idea away from an explosion.
00:11:14.960 Another case study with BCG is Black & Decker.
00:11:17.220 Here's what Black & Decker did when they hired BCG.
00:11:19.760 So these guys were stuck with a 20% market share in the 1950s for power tools.
00:11:23.620 They hired BCG.
00:11:24.500 BCG identifies that Black & Decker sales increased when they lowered their prices.
00:11:28.940 Black & Decker was hesitant to do this because they were concerned with recovering its investment.
00:11:33.380 For example, when Black & Decker was selling ladders for $30, they sold 50,000 ladders that year.
00:11:38.720 But when Black & Decker lowered the price from $30 to 1995, they sold 600,000 ladders that year.
00:11:45.220 That's 12 times the amount at $30.
00:11:48.320 So what's the difference between the two?
00:11:49.900 That's $1.5 million of sales versus $12 million in sales.
00:11:53.620 Lower prices kept competitors away.
00:11:55.540 They used market research to see how low competitors could price their products before going bust.
00:12:00.040 And here's what happened to their revenue.
00:12:01.720 1964, $100 million.
00:12:03.420 $69, $200 million.
00:12:05.040 $74, $500 million.
00:12:06.640 And if they weren't to get that advice from BCG, they may still be small.
00:12:10.320 And more importantly, they may have had three, four, five other competitors taking market share away from them.
00:12:15.980 I'll give you another case study, a complete different story.
00:12:17.960 This is Bausch & Lomb, who's a lens company.
00:12:19.840 They hired Bain.
00:12:20.540 But before they hired Bain, let me kind of give you an idea where they were at.
00:12:23.480 So these guys are selling eyeglasses, cameras, military equipment.
00:12:26.220 Pioneered the creation of soft contact lenses in the 60s.
00:12:29.500 And by the 70s, they held 50% of the market for soft lenses and was responsible for about two-thirds of revenue.
00:12:35.380 They started facing increased competition from companies like Johnson & Johnson, who were introducing new products like extended-used soft lenses.
00:12:42.840 Bain spotted Bausch & Lomb for being vulnerable and went to work.
00:12:45.720 They conducted market research like a spy network.
00:12:48.120 They studied a manufacturing plant of a competitor by watching a BBC tape of the Queen touring the factory, blew up images of every piece of equipment, and reverse-engineered the factory to do a competitive cost analysis, finding out exactly what the Bausch & Lomb price needed to be, spoke with all types of eye doctors for research three months.
00:13:06.160 The final report from Bain & Company to Bausch & Lomb was that they were under serious threat from these new lens manufacturers, and they made the following recommendations.
00:13:14.160 There were three ways to manufacture lenses, and they recommended getting into all of them.
00:13:17.620 Bausch & Lomb had an advantage of marketing and distribution power from its prior success.
00:13:21.760 They started to acquire manufacturers for these two types of lenses they were not making and then underpriced to new companies.
00:13:27.940 Also recommended getting into high-end lens solutions, which could be sold at a premium.
00:13:32.280 And by the way, this has been one of the most successful displays of consulting.
00:13:35.020 They ended up capturing 60% of the market for new fits, 50% competitive cost advantage, and eventually they achieved market dominance.
00:13:41.920 And by the way, the power here goes to Bain, because Bain is watching all these different companies saying, listen, you guys are struggling.
00:13:47.080 You're under a lot of threat.
00:13:48.380 You don't know it.
00:13:48.960 Let us show you the case study.
00:13:49.920 Here's what you're going through.
00:13:50.800 We can help you.
00:13:51.860 This is what we suggest you do.
00:13:53.040 If you hire us, can you imagine how this worked out?
00:13:55.600 And then now these guys are sitting there saying, man, great idea, because we got the lower market share,
00:14:00.880 and then we also got the most expensive lenses in our dominating marketplace.
00:14:05.020 Kudos to Bain.
00:14:05.900 Next came IT consulting and the big four.
00:14:08.220 This is 80s and 90s.
00:14:09.480 Models like the experience curve and growth metrics were eventually exposed.
00:14:12.580 It became clear that a specialized approach was needed on a case-by-case basis.
00:14:16.860 Simultaneously, the need for IT guidance and knowledge expanded at an exponential rate.
00:14:20.760 Due to antitrust concerns, computer companies were prohibited from selling their expertise,
00:14:24.740 created the opportunity for independent vendors to offer IT consulting services.
00:14:29.020 The big four quickly expanded their services from accounting and auditing to include consulting.
00:14:33.840 They occupied the IT consulting niche market, and by the mid-90s,
00:14:37.560 that surpassed the majority of the other consulting firms in size,
00:14:40.840 IT consulting is the largest and fastest-growing segment of management consulting
00:14:44.520 with only operational excellence coming close.
00:14:47.200 Then came the specializer in the 2000s.
00:14:49.060 This was more about strategic management, information technology, human resource consulting,
00:14:53.000 digital management consulting, meaning you could specific, go to,
00:14:56.220 I want to know how to recruit better people.
00:14:57.660 Boom, I want to know how to retain better people.
00:14:59.280 Boom, I want to know how to create better culture.
00:15:00.840 It was whatever the specific niche was, this came next in the 2000s.
00:15:04.140 And by the way, you keep hearing about the evolution,
00:15:06.120 the current evolution of consulting is how you can predict the future.
00:15:10.440 Matter of fact, McKinsey & Company just bought a company,
00:15:12.440 I think it's 2015 or something, called Quantum Black.
00:15:15.260 Quantum Black is an AI that helps harness the power of hybrid intelligence
00:15:19.120 to create unimagined opportunities in a constantly changing world.
00:15:23.020 So what can you and I take away from this whole history of what happened with consulting firms?
00:15:26.740 How does that apply to you and I?
00:15:27.880 It's very simple.
00:15:28.520 We all fall in one of two categories.
00:15:30.040 You're either giving advice or you're getting advice.
00:15:32.360 Some people's advice is worth more.
00:15:35.140 Some people's advice is worth less.
00:15:37.000 For you and I, I have spent millions of dollars getting advice.
00:15:41.700 Legal, accounting, finance, business, strategy.
00:15:45.060 Cannot tell you endless amount of money I've spent here.
00:15:47.280 Also on this side, people ask me for advice.
00:15:49.300 For some of you watching, it's like,
00:15:50.500 well, you want me to ask people for money for advice
00:15:52.600 or you want me to pay money for somebody for advice?
00:15:54.520 Yes, it happens all the time.
00:15:56.100 Do you remember how many years ago you and I didn't feel comfortable saying,
00:15:58.600 I'm never going to post a picture of my family on Instagram or Facebook?
00:16:01.260 This is crazy.
00:16:02.040 You did it.
00:16:02.900 I'm never going to post my location where I'm at.
00:16:05.020 You did it.
00:16:05.720 There's a lot of things that we didn't do before.
00:16:07.460 So today, what would happen if you got the right advice on marriage?
00:16:10.300 We just had a friend that went through a divorce.
00:16:12.740 His wife got $2.5 million from him.
00:16:15.400 He's only worth $5 million.
00:16:16.760 Some of me say, but that's a lot of money.
00:16:18.260 He's been busting his ass for 30 years to get to that number as a business owner.
00:16:21.160 If he would have spent $5,000 on an upshot agreement, it would have been $2.5 million.
00:16:25.800 But he didn't pay for that advice.
00:16:27.580 Not paying for that advice costs him millions.
00:16:30.200 This is normal and personal and business and content creation.
00:16:33.660 So now if you're watching the same path, I love it.
00:16:35.620 I want to be able to ask people for advice, but I can't afford this kind of money.
00:16:38.260 These guys are charging millions of dollars.
00:16:39.800 And I feel like I can bring some advice to others, but what do I do this?
00:16:42.260 I don't know how to ask for credit card, calendar scheduling.
00:16:44.620 No problem.
00:16:45.300 There's an app for that called Minect.
00:16:47.020 Minect is, do you have a minute to connect?
00:16:49.520 Let's Minect.
00:16:50.020 Think about Minect is only fans for experts and consultants.
00:16:53.640 You can go to this app, look for expertise of people that have, and ask them questions.
00:16:57.640 This guy's $10 a question, $20 a question.
00:17:00.000 You can do it through text or video, or you can do FaceTime with them all in the app.
00:17:04.020 And if you become an expert, you can decide your price point.
00:17:06.920 You can create your profile.
00:17:08.260 You can share it with your social media and email list that you may have.
00:17:11.080 And people will come here and pay you for advice.
00:17:14.420 So if you got value out of this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
00:17:17.300 And if you want to start Minecting, whether it's asking others for advice or giving advice,
00:17:21.980 download the app right here.
00:17:23.600 Take care, everybody.
00:17:24.320 Bye-bye, bye-bye.