Valuetainment - March 12, 2026


“Trump May Seize Hormuz” - Iran's Strait Of Hormuz SHOWDOWN Sends Oil Markets Into CHAOS


Episode Stats


Length

20 minutes

Words per minute

187.94315

Word count

3,923

Sentence count

291

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

21

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Trump says he's considering seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important choke point in the world for crude oil supply and demand. Crude oil prices decline 6.19% to $85.27 a barrel after hitting nearly $120 earlier in the day.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:30.000 Oil prices declined after hitting nearly $120, as Trump says, U.S. considering taking over straight-up Hormuz.
00:00:40.640 Rob, I think you got a video on this one.
00:00:42.080 If you want to pull it up, I'll read it, and then we'll get right into the story.
00:00:47.180 So, oil prices fell Monday in extended trading after President Trump said he was considering seizing control straight-up Hormuz,
00:00:54.000 the most important choke point in the world for crude market.
00:00:58.740 The crude oil was down 6.19% to 85.27%.
00:01:03.400 And Trump told CBS News in a phone conversation that ships are moving through straight.
00:01:09.740 The president said he's thinking about taking it over.
00:01:12.340 He also indicated he thought the war would be soon.
00:01:15.280 The moment he said that, people reacted.
00:01:17.600 Rob, is this the clip?
00:01:18.740 This is Fox News.
00:01:19.880 Yes, sir.
00:01:20.340 Do you have the numbers?
00:01:21.360 Can we see what oil prices are right now?
00:01:23.860 As of literally right now where prices of oil are.
00:01:26.900 Tom, have you looked at it this morning?
00:01:28.300 Yeah, it's U.S. WTI, West Texas Intermediate,
00:01:32.940 which usually runs about $2 to $3 less than Brent crude.
00:01:36.840 Those are the two global markers.
00:01:39.880 And so we're hovering around $85 right now, which is significantly down.
00:01:43.760 So we're up a couple bucks today,
00:01:45.480 but it certainly has settled down from the last two days.
00:01:48.260 Can you press on five days, Rob?
00:01:51.460 Five days high was what, $110, $112?
00:01:54.260 $1.10-ish.
00:01:57.620 Okay.
00:01:58.180 Anthony, what do you think is going on here with oil prices?
00:02:00.700 Went up, went down.
00:02:01.620 What are your thoughts?
00:02:03.400 Well, I mean, obviously, you know, you've got 21 miles straight,
00:02:07.640 20% of the world's oil coming through there.
00:02:11.300 You have to shut down production because there's no place to put the supply of oil
00:02:16.180 in places like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
00:02:18.780 So they're shutting down production.
00:02:21.700 And, unfortunately, it's not like an on and off switch.
00:02:23.840 You can't just flip it back on, Patrick.
00:02:26.700 So it takes about three to six weeks to get it back up and running.
00:02:31.120 And so, you know, I used to work at Goldman Sachs, Jay Aaron, commodity division.
00:02:35.420 They would get in there and get, you know, long oil and play the volatility trade.
00:02:39.680 And then, of course, the president, you know, he likes pulling ripcord every once in a while.
00:02:45.580 I mean, they call it taco.
00:02:47.060 I think he has a really interesting strategy here in the Middle East, which we'll talk about later.
00:02:50.280 But I think the bottom line is oil prices, my prediction, will trend lower back to where they were at the beginning of the year once this resolves itself.
00:02:59.440 Tom?
00:03:00.020 Yeah, I'm on the same page of trending back lower.
00:03:02.280 I mean, if you go to that chart and you just look back for, say, three months, and, you know, we were 67 to 74 was kind of the range.
00:03:12.480 Yeah, there you go.
00:03:13.640 67, keep going, going, going, right there we were.
00:03:16.220 Right before, there's 63, 62.
00:03:18.780 So between USWTI and Brent crude, Brent runs a couple bucks more, that's where we were.
00:03:26.220 And we were in a happy little place that's above what's called extraction cost, $67, $70 is good profit for most everybody in the value chain, even profitable for Alberta oil sands or North Dakota shale.
00:03:40.340 So the oil market was okay.
00:03:42.160 And what this is is uncertainty creates this.
00:03:44.800 If you take a look at what uncertainty does in markets, that's what people need to understand.
00:03:50.360 These are not permanent things.
00:03:51.860 These are reactionary.
00:03:53.120 Rob, could you look at S&P and go back a full year so we can see last April?
00:04:00.040 You know, Liberation Day, whatever we wanted to call it, no, no, one year, one full year.
00:04:06.380 And it goes back.
00:04:07.540 You had this huge spike that happened.
00:04:10.040 And you were sitting there looking at, there we go, in April.
00:04:14.800 look at the spike down. That was uncertainty. But then the fundamentals of the market came back,
00:04:19.820 people announced earnings, and everything was okay. Oil's a little bit different, because as
00:04:25.000 Anthony said, it takes time to spin the stuff back up. But North Sea oil hasn't stopped. And
00:04:30.940 West Texas Intermediate hasn't stopped. And North Dakota and Alberta hasn't stopped. So there's a
00:04:35.400 lot of supply in the West that was business as usual. And we are, I believe the number, correct 0.97
00:04:41.340 me here. We are two times the amount of oil is now going out of Venezuela as in the 30 days prior
00:04:48.280 to, you know, relieving Maduro of his presidential duties, dictatorial duties, because they were
00:04:55.640 basically limited shipping because there was embargoes and other things going on. And now
00:05:01.480 they have all the pipes going. And so if you can get a boat to Venezuela and you've got a place to
00:05:07.220 refine heavy crude which is what comes out of venezuela then you're going to be good so for
00:05:12.100 most people freaking out i don't think this is going to affect travel costs like air like you
00:05:16.960 know avgas as they call aviation fuel i think the spike is going to settle back down pat and just
00:05:22.680 add something so i mean and the and the thing about venezuela which has been brilliant for the
00:05:26.980 united states is our refineries remember were set up pre maduro pre chavez so they can refine that
00:05:35.580 heavy crude and so it's an easy shipment to the united states and i think that was the play you
00:05:41.020 know if you combine venezuela and iran it's 31 of the world's oil reserves so there's a big play
00:05:47.900 going on right now what do you think the strategy is you said earlier you know trump strategy it's
00:05:51.580 interesting what do you actually think the strategy is well i mean you know he's got tremendous
00:05:56.920 communication skills president trump but he has sometimes a hard time articulating vision so i'll
00:06:03.000 channel it for you because i know i'm a long time he's looking at this and saying to himself
00:06:07.980 i was able to figure out a way not to have regime change sort of regime change light in venezuela
00:06:13.840 i was able to get delsey rodriguez to come on side with me uh and basically flip venezuela
00:06:21.080 into a friendly okay and that also gives him some leverage on china and he was told again rightly or
00:06:27.220 He was told by intelligence, he was told by DIA, defense intelligence, that there were secularists in Iran and that this sort of revolution that was happening in January was an indication that people were getting tired, 85 percent of the people against the regime, et cetera.
00:06:44.340 And so he said, OK, here's an opportunity to create a Delce Rodriguez 2.
00:06:49.180 Let's see if we can get to the table.
00:06:50.600 I guess the big question I would have for the president, him and I don't talk anymore, but I would have, what happened in Oman?
00:06:57.360 Because they had a deal in Oman.
00:06:59.220 The Iranians more or less gave them exactly what they wanted. 0.98
00:07:02.060 So there has to be something underlying why he ultimately made the decision to attack.
00:07:06.460 Maybe it was the Israeli thing that Secretary Rubio said.
00:07:09.340 But the vision was knock out the regime, or at least the top few guys, and then find a secularist to do business with and create the pivot.
00:07:18.840 But where I know, and fairly certain, he's upset with the Israelis because the Israelis went down the line and killed everybody, Patrick. 0.76
00:07:27.300 And I think the president, and he more or less admitted that in an Oval Office conversation.
00:07:32.420 He said, yeah, I'm trying to find somebody to do it.
00:07:33.720 Well, we like the guy, but he's dead.
00:07:35.100 Yeah.
00:07:35.600 We're trying to find somebody to do it, and they keep killing the people.
00:07:38.680 And so you had to—
00:07:40.060 They keep. 0.99
00:07:41.040 So that's funny because the they is, Israelis keep killing the people. 1.00
00:07:44.500 Yeah, so the Americans and the Israelis were on site, on message for the original strikes,
00:07:50.960 and then they diverged in terms of what their objectives were later on.
00:07:56.580 The Israelis have made a decision.
00:07:58.060 You caused us this problem in Gaza, Hezbollah, Hamas. 0.85
00:08:02.440 You've been a state sponsor of terrorism. 0.77
00:08:04.640 And remember, and I think everyone here knows this, but in the Iranian Constitution,
00:08:09.320 if you read it, because I've gone through it, they want to export their radicalism,
00:08:13.320 radicalism and they want to end Israel. Those are the two things. And so you're the prime
00:08:17.360 minister of Israel. Someone's telling you they want to wipe you out. Imagine if, you know,
00:08:21.220 one of the countries near us was saying, hey, our number one dedication is to destroy the United
00:08:26.560 States. You know, it's good. You got to put you got to put your you got to put your guard up.
00:08:30.260 There it is. It's all the information. More ideological. For one is more business. For
00:08:34.760 Trump, it's more business. For Israel, it's more emotional. Emotion, survival. I want to kill
00:08:39.240 everybody and anthony over the weekend didn't trump basically say he says the country is yours 0.99
00:08:45.100 for the taking come and take it he was encouraging them over the weekend the the citizens to the
00:08:50.340 citizens okay so there's a there's another very big problem there so the citizens have been declawed
00:08:55.200 okay over the last 20 years all the guns have been taken away all of the right to really peaceful
00:09:02.420 dissent. They've got a full on security state. So imagine the NSA to the ninth power and they've
00:09:10.060 got a tippy tip or a payment structure going on. So if I see you in your apartment doing something
00:09:16.100 that I think I don't like, I can call the regime and they'll they'll send to come in and check on
00:09:23.240 you. Right. So so they have this massive surveillance state and they've suppressed the
00:09:27.020 people. So president's right. We'd like you to overthrow the regime, but you don't have any
00:09:32.100 guns and you don't have any ammo to overthrow the regime right and you don't have a an ability
00:09:36.920 on your own to overthrow the regime so they've been declawed and that that's a big issue and so
00:09:42.160 what's that what's that issue now and i'm you know not in love with i mean you talk about regime
00:09:46.300 change you went from khameini to younger khameini and less than a scaramucci i mean eight days later
00:09:51.960 they got right you know you got you had no real regime change and this guy's a hardened guy and so
00:09:58.000 So I'm worried about that.
00:10:01.300 Now, having said all that, what's plan two?
00:10:04.560 Plan two is blow the living daylights out of them,
00:10:08.420 degrade their missile strike capability, their drone capability.
00:10:12.140 And manufacture.
00:10:12.860 And manufacture.
00:10:13.500 But remember something, because, you know, I've been to Afghanistan,
00:10:16.300 and I understand those mountain ranges over there.
00:10:19.620 They've got so much stuff hidden in those mountains.
00:10:23.760 And so you're going to have to drop some severe bunker buster bombs all over the place to try to dislodge that.
00:10:30.580 And it's a gigantic country, guys.
00:10:32.500 You know, Patrick grew up, or was at least born there, 93 million people, gigantic country.
00:10:38.100 You know, it would basically fit in the middle of the United States without the coast.
00:10:42.860 And they got a lot of terrain there where they could be hiding stuff.
00:10:46.100 Last point, which I think is the most important one, you've got 460 or so kilos of uranium.
00:10:53.760 That's missing since we dropped those bombs. And so the president knows that our people know that that's why they're thinking about putting a a ground troops or special forces in there to see if they can get that at the nuclear fissile material out of the country.
00:11:08.940 That's a thousand. So it goes kilos. That's about a thousand pounds of weapons grade.
00:11:14.080 We think we don't know, but that's what we think. But if that number is correct, it's a thousand pounds.
00:11:18.260 Okay, so be in the Situation Room. Let's workshop the Situation Room. You're the President of the United States. Your ally is Israel. They want to destroy Israel. They're wreaking havoc in the region. I'm sure Patrick knows this. The Gulf states are saying two things at the same time. 0.88
00:11:36.760 telling the president quietly we support you publicly and then they're writing open letters
00:11:41.660 that they don't support him which is totally cool by the way this is exactly what delci rodriguez did
00:11:46.700 after the decapitation of maduro i'm not going to take the bs of the president but that was all
00:11:52.480 staged so so you're getting you're getting two channels of information but the gulf states are
00:11:58.900 really telling the president hit him as hard as you possibly can but don't destroy our economies
00:12:04.860 and don't destroy the global economy.
00:12:07.160 And, by the way, the Iranians, because they've been thinking about this too,
00:12:11.320 I can't beat the United States, but I've got to outlast them,
00:12:14.960 and I have to terrorize the countries in this region that are allied with the United States,
00:12:20.880 and that's why you're seeing drones going into the Dubai airport, hitting apartment buildings.
00:12:25.560 Iran's desalination plan. 0.60
00:12:27.120 Yeah, the desalination.
00:12:28.500 That was a rough one.
00:12:29.540 You probably shouldn't be shooting at schools.
00:12:32.040 I think that was a mistake.
00:12:33.220 I think the president is making a mistake by not owning up to that.
00:12:37.560 That was a Tomahawk missile that hit the school.
00:12:40.380 I'm certain that the Americans didn't do that on purpose.
00:12:43.780 That's unfortunately the fog of war.
00:12:45.920 But just admit it and let's move on.
00:12:48.780 Because if it happened to us, we'd be crazy, right?
00:12:51.200 Yeah.
00:12:51.500 This thing feels sloppy, though, compared to Venezuela.
00:12:53.780 Like Venezuela was meticulous.
00:12:55.880 That strike on Iran last year was meticulous with the bunker buster bombs. 0.99
00:12:59.260 So it's almost like I'm wondering if they're strategically acting incompetent right now, because even when Hagseth and the other general goes up there, they're acting like they're unclear on what they want to do with the straightforward moves, which is why I think the oil market's been so volatile, because, I mean, I imagine that it's pretty easy to clear it out if they want extra savage, but they're not showing the willingness to be extra savage.
00:13:20.660 So let me let me jump in, because I think I think that this is the problem.
00:13:25.680 They got a little overconfident, as we sometimes do.
00:13:29.060 Some of my worst mistakes is when I'm overconfident, particularly in markets.
00:13:32.600 They beautifully executed in Venezuela.
00:13:35.480 They saw this as a six or 12 day war.
00:13:39.340 And I know what they did. They went to the president of Mar-a-Lago and said, hey, look at this six day war in 1967.
00:13:45.860 The Israelis knocked the daylights out of the Egyptians. 1.00
00:13:49.140 It forced secularism in Egypt, and it eventually led—
00:13:53.020 Fronts in that war.
00:13:53.940 Yeah, exactly.
00:13:54.660 And they took over the Sinai Peninsula. 0.83
00:13:56.400 Had to give it back to them in the Camp David Accords.
00:13:58.660 But it caused secularization.
00:14:01.720 You have a chance here.
00:14:02.940 Last year, you had the 12-day war.
00:14:05.280 No real damage from the Iranians coming back to us. 1.00
00:14:08.980 We're going to do this 6-12-21 days.
00:14:11.720 There'll be no real damage.
00:14:12.960 But once you went after the Supreme Leader—
00:14:15.520 Remember what Trump has said from the White House.
00:14:17.940 If they take me out, there's a whole list of things I've given people to do to the Iranians. 1.00
00:14:24.300 You've heard him say that.
00:14:26.140 So just imagine the Supreme Leader has now been taken out,
00:14:29.280 and the Iranians are going down the list they were told to do after that takeout.
00:14:34.880 And so the president and his team, I am now being critical,
00:14:38.700 just to tell you what the vision is, they didn't anticipate that.
00:14:41.260 And that's the big thing.
00:14:43.080 Mike Tyson would tell you, everybody has a planet that you're punched in the face.
00:14:47.080 You know, you were in the 101st Airborne.
00:14:50.220 82nd Airborne was dropped off-site on June 5th prior to D-Day.
00:14:54.560 They had to fight their way out of that in a 360-degree circle.
00:14:57.980 So we have things that go on in war that are bad, so now they're recalibrating.
00:15:02.740 But that was ultimately the mistake.
00:15:04.760 But if he handles this well, okay, and I've been a critic of the president.
00:15:09.520 I think people know that.
00:15:10.500 I don't like the process.
00:15:11.900 We talk about the democracy and the threat to it.
00:15:14.420 But if he handles this well, he could have his cake and eat it, too.
00:15:19.320 He could have a marginal—he's maybe not going to get the regime changed and the fanaticism there,
00:15:25.260 but he could have a marginalized country, which will lower those oil prices and stabilize that reason.
00:15:30.920 What's victory, though?
00:15:32.020 Because you got—to me, what victory is to U.S. I don't think is the same victory as it is to Israel. 0.85
00:15:39.320 I don't think they're aligned there.
00:15:40.600 Would you agree with that?
00:15:41.360 100%.
00:15:41.800 Tom, would you agree with that as well?
00:15:43.040 100%, yeah.
00:15:43.480 The victory to U.S. is different than victory for Israel, Tom?
00:15:49.140 Yes and no.
00:15:51.120 There's part of it is, but Mossad has always had, and I'm not a spokesperson for Mossad.
00:15:57.200 I'm very critical of them.
00:15:59.080 Mossad has always had their agenda.
00:16:01.340 And their agenda has been very different and sometimes a lot more lethal than the West and the U.N.
00:16:09.140 Because NATO has been a friend.
00:16:11.840 The U.S. has been a friend.
00:16:13.480 People say, no, no, no, you've been led by Israel.
00:16:15.940 No, no, no.
00:16:16.900 There have been times where, okay, here's where we all agree,
00:16:20.020 but then Israel's had these other lethal things to do. 0.51
00:16:23.080 Israel has taken people out of apartment buildings in Lebanon with missiles
00:16:28.020 and didn't tell the U.S.
00:16:30.300 U.S. CIA knew about it.
00:16:31.900 I've read stuff.
00:16:33.080 We've talked to CIA people that have leaked it.
00:16:36.600 The CIA knew and said, you know, we really think that guy,
00:16:39.380 the guy in Lebanon, kaboom, whoop, they did it, you know? 1.00
00:16:43.080 And so. So to them, if you were. They have another agenda down deep. I get that. So what I think they want to fail partition state. That's what I think. OK, great.
00:16:51.400 So they want to get rid of what they want. They want Syria, Lebanon. Israel looks at its survival and says we do really well in this region if we have failed partition states and we have secular Arabs that want to do business with Israel in the United States.
00:17:08.120 That's the Abraham Accords. 0.99
00:17:09.740 On the side where there's the radicals, mostly, unfortunately, the Shia Muslims, 1.00
00:17:14.800 they would rather have them have failed states than anything organized.
00:17:19.060 I don't think the Americans want that.
00:17:20.780 That's just me talking now.
00:17:22.560 Americans don't want. 0.99
00:17:23.920 No, the Americans don't want a failed state.
00:17:25.420 They want a controllable leader.
00:17:26.920 That's what they want.
00:17:27.500 Because you get Somalia with the Orleans. 0.98
00:17:29.500 You don't have it right now.
00:17:30.780 No.
00:17:31.120 No.
00:17:31.380 They want a Del C rivalry.
00:17:32.840 You can't do a Del C because there's not a VP model there, right?
00:17:36.300 Right, right.
00:17:36.780 So it's not like you can go – what happened to Venezuela is not going to happen.
00:17:41.380 Tom said something very important.
00:17:42.800 He says, you know what's the problem with suicide bombers?
00:17:46.280 And Humberto said, what?
00:17:47.860 He says, the suicide part.
00:17:49.520 He says, when you're going to war and you're willing to commit suicide on behalf of your country, you change the game.
00:17:57.420 Venezuelans don't think that way.
00:17:59.060 There's only a couple countries that think that way, right?
00:18:01.920 I'm willing to go out there and, you know, Iran being one of them. 0.99
00:18:05.640 But when you're looking at this, so in your mind, I just pulled up right now just to search for myself.
00:18:11.300 So Israel planned and executed the strike operationally to kill Khamenei.
00:18:17.000 I want to tell you guys what's going on with us.
00:18:18.560 We're hiring aggressively.
00:18:20.280 Nearly 50% plus of the employees that work at Valuetainment, any one of our companies,
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00:18:33.360 50% is not from here.
00:18:35.440 They move here to work with us.
00:18:37.400 If you're looking at the different jobs that we have right now, we have, I don't know, 30, 40 different job openings.
00:18:42.840 Rob, if you have the clip to show on working over here, if you want to play that clip.
00:18:48.420 And then at the end, I want to give you guys a tip.
00:18:50.300 Guy sends me a text.
00:18:51.340 A lot of people send me texts saying, hey, Pat, can you put in a good word in my best friend's nephew applied?
00:18:56.800 You know, I applied.
00:18:57.920 What can I do to get up there?
00:18:59.060 I'm going to give you a tip at the end what to do to be a differentiator because our HR team only looks at people that do this one thing.
00:19:04.740 But go ahead and watch this clip.
00:19:05.740 Go for it, Rob.
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00:20:39.000 So if you want to find out more about different jobs that we have, again, go to vt.com forward slash career, apply now, looking forward to hopefully working together soon.
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