Valuetainment - May 30, 2026


＂Trump's Game Of Chicken＂ - The Abraham Accords ULTIMATUM Iran Never Saw Coming


Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

200.70747

Word count

3,480

Sentence count

314

Harmful content

Hate speech

20

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.040 Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice.
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00:00:30.000 So a report just came in from, is it Kobashi Letters?
00:00:32.880 Is that the one that you have, Rob?
00:00:34.300 Kobashi Letters?
00:00:35.040 I keep thinking Kobashi is like the one from the usual suspects when he's saying something at the end.
00:00:39.740 So breaking.
00:00:40.400 This just happened a few minutes ago, maybe an hour ago.
00:00:42.200 Iranian state media announces initial details of memorandum on understanding for the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
00:00:47.840 Initial details of the deal per Iran.
00:00:49.580 U.S. military forces will withdraw from vicinity of Iran.
00:00:52.660 The U.S. Navy will lift its blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
00:00:55.220 Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial transit ships through Strait of Hormuz.
00:00:59.420 two pre-war levels within one month.
00:01:02.280 Iranian state media says military vessels are not included in this draft.
00:01:07.820 The management of routing of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
00:01:11.260 will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.
00:01:14.000 If a final deal is reached within 60 days,
00:01:17.260 this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution.
00:01:22.840 U.S. oil prices extend losses to drop below $89.
00:01:27.220 You notice one word wasn't mentioned in any one of those.
00:01:30.480 And what is that one word?
00:01:31.980 Uranium.
00:01:32.540 That's right.
00:01:33.120 I didn't see it one time there.
00:01:34.760 Now, that's them saying that.
00:01:37.080 We've heard it from our rent on what's going to happen.
00:01:39.540 Oil prices right now, if you go back to that, 89.80 hasn't been prices like that since April 13th.
00:01:45.460 I thought that was a day, Tom.
00:01:46.900 April 17th, it got down.
00:01:48.540 It also got down on March 23rd.
00:01:50.280 But every other point in there, we've been 90 to 108.
00:01:53.780 So, yeah, every day we're hearing, well, it's going to be this.
00:01:56.040 Well, it's going to be that.
00:01:57.180 And I have the reports here of the dates going back and forth on how the deal was taking place,
00:02:01.300 which I'll get to that here in a minute.
00:02:02.580 I've got to find what page it was on, which one minute is like, yeah, we got the deal.
00:02:06.540 Oh, we don't have the deal.
00:02:07.580 Oh, they're doing this.
00:02:08.500 Oh, they're doing that.
00:02:09.340 And then while this is happening, Israel overnight yesterday attacks Lebanon, I think South Lebanon,
00:02:16.240 and they killed 31 in South Lebanon as Israel expands ground operation.
00:02:22.080 And this report came out, Rob, is this it?
00:02:24.740 Yes, sir.
00:02:25.080 Go for it.
00:02:25.580 go for it if you want to play that rubble and destruction in the city of tyre in the wake of
00:02:30.140 israeli attacks across southern lebanon with a ceasefire supposedly in place and peace talks
00:02:36.540 planned this is the reality on the ground when the warning of the attack came people panicked
00:02:44.140 because there were children and women and old people and they all wanted to leave their homes
00:02:49.420 because they were afraid of being killed or injured devastating devastating you can pause
00:02:54.220 army released this keep playing that on tuesday saying it struck more than 100 sites linked to
00:03:01.240 hezbollah the militant group backed by iran israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said
00:03:06.840 the israeli army's offensive was deepening under my and the defense ministers so you see that you
00:03:14.040 see oil prices you see every day hey negotiating getting closer and then you're seeing stories if
00:03:18.740 they don't we're going to retaliate and arrive if i'm not mistaken there was some strikes in
00:03:22.820 in Tehran, Iran, or something like that?
00:03:24.880 That just happened?
00:03:25.540 You want to play that?
00:03:26.180 Go for it.
00:03:27.720 The U.S. strikes inside Iran.
00:03:29.540 The Pentagon says multiple targets were hit
00:03:31.600 in the southern part of the country.
00:03:33.280 It's called the action self-defense.
00:03:36.100 In time, Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone overnight.
00:03:39.080 Also in self-defense,
00:03:40.660 it's not clear what all this means for the peace talks,
00:03:43.340 but as Tayyip has the latest from Tel Aviv
00:03:45.300 and joins us now.
00:03:46.500 MTS, good morning.
00:03:49.900 Vlad, very good morning to you.
00:03:51.240 Well, after weeks of intense diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran, these overnight strikes by U.S. forces really threatens this already fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, who did seem to be heading towards some kind of an agreement to end the war.
00:04:05.780 Now, in a statement to CBS News from CENTCON, it said, and I'm quoting here, targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.
00:04:16.000 U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing.
00:04:21.460 Okay, so then, again, I'm giving all of this and then I'm going to come to you guys.
00:04:26.000 Trump comes out and says, in order for this deal to get done, we got to do the Abraham Accords and tie to Pakistan and others.
00:04:32.300 And wait a minute, they're like, we're not open to this.
00:04:34.780 Pakistan flat out said, I'm not open to it.
00:04:36.220 So let me read this. 1.00
00:04:37.500 Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords 0.56
00:04:44.020 and that if Iran signs the agreement with me as president of the United States,
00:04:48.260 it would be an honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled world coalition.
00:04:55.800 If he's able to pull this off, okay, if he's able to pull this off,
00:04:59.520 but by the way, Pakistan already said they're not interested.
00:05:01.740 If he's able to pull this off, Jeff, how big of a deal would this be if he pulls this off?
00:05:06.380 Oh, the whole thing would be huge.
00:05:07.800 I mean, it would be world changing.
00:05:09.300 If he can pull, I mean, that's always been the question.
00:05:11.200 The goal here has been this could be absolutely historic and seismic.
00:05:15.360 So the question is, can he actually get there?
00:05:18.900 Because think about what the Middle East would look like. 0.63
00:05:20.720 Hell, think about what the entire world would look like if Iran is a functioning democratic state.
00:05:26.300 92 million people.
00:05:27.600 Huge opportunity, huge potential.
00:05:29.700 Not just around, though, but the spillover effects across the rest of the Middle East where you don't have constant tensions and terrorism and security issues and all that kind of stuff.
00:05:37.400 You know, political scuffles in the conflicts.
00:05:39.880 You take all that stuff away and everybody gets down to business, the world looks very, very different.
00:05:44.740 And the world looks a lot better.
00:05:46.720 So if he can pull it off, it would be absolutely huge.
00:05:49.900 And I think that is the, as I said it from the very beginning, Trump sees the long-run goal here as worth whatever the short-run pain is.
00:05:58.060 And the short-run pain could be pretty substantial.
00:06:00.640 We're starting to see some of the evidence for that already showing up.
00:06:03.660 But it would be worth it if he can pull it off.
00:06:06.380 That's the issue.
00:06:07.280 Can he actually pull it off?
00:06:08.300 Your thoughts?
00:06:08.720 I think there's a couple of things in here. What's interesting is that you have UAE and
00:06:16.360 Bahrain were the two that broke ranks of the Arab coalition. I think they signed onto the
00:06:21.840 Abraham Accords, right? Or they signed letters of intent that said, hey, we're in. Am I correct? 0.67
00:06:26.860 Those two. And it's very interesting that those two have been targeted quite a bit, right? Also
00:06:31.740 because we've got things there. But if this got pulled off, it's not just the signing of the
00:06:36.380 Abraham Accords. It's got to be everything that goes with it. And if that happens, I think this
00:06:42.480 would be amazing because what are the key parts of the Abraham Accords? You recognize that Israel
00:06:50.960 is a sovereign nation. That is usually the core, help me, Humberto, that's the core
00:06:56.740 that the Islamic countries don't want, right? By signing the Abraham Accords, you recognize, 1.00
00:07:03.380 But the majority of the ones that refused to sign, Egypt refused to sign for other reasons, but they had already recognized them.
00:07:09.180 They have the Camp David Peace Accords.
00:07:11.420 And so Egypt said, well, we're not signing the Abraham Accords because they didn't want to be on the opposite side of everybody else.
00:07:18.460 But I think this would be huge, Pat.
00:07:19.900 This would be huge. 0.93
00:07:21.880 And when you've got UAE and Bahrain already in there, then you've got the Saudis in the background, you know, just waiting to step across the line.
00:07:29.940 because the Saudis want Western economic entanglements and deals.
00:07:36.120 The Saudis don't want this protracted thing going on right now.
00:07:39.840 Yeah, last time I heard the word entanglement,
00:07:41.500 it was Jada Pinkett talking about different things.
00:07:43.620 Your thoughts with this?
00:07:45.500 Pat, this is going to sound very selfish,
00:07:48.980 but I'm sick and tired of this.
00:07:51.680 I just want a deal.
00:07:53.100 Like, I can't keep on paying.
00:07:55.160 Like, I drive a big Ram truck.
00:07:57.080 I can't pay $4.25 forever at the gas pump.
00:08:01.800 You know what I mean?
00:08:04.020 Trump got voted in because he's a dealmaker.
00:08:07.300 Never count him out.
00:08:08.380 I think he's going to come out swinging with a deal.
00:08:12.060 I don't know how long it's going to take, but I just want a deal.
00:08:14.680 I literally have tuned out out of all this news cycle until we have a deal on the table and it's signed.
00:08:20.400 Well, Trump has taken the opposite approach, right?
00:08:22.960 What he's saying is I'm not going to just sign a deal.
00:08:25.020 I'm only going to sign the deal that I think works long run.
00:08:28.180 That's why, you know, both sides have kind of dug in here and it's a game of chicken right now.
00:08:31.700 Well, the thing is that you can't undo the past.
00:08:34.960 You can't turn time back.
00:08:36.540 If you do any deal right now, we might end up in a worse position than we started.
00:08:40.920 You know what I mean?
00:08:42.000 So it needs to be a deal that is better than the Obama deal.
00:08:45.220 So that's the baseline to have a deal better than the Obama deal. 0.53
00:08:48.300 It needs to leave us in a position or leave Iran outside of position of power that they have right now at the Strait of Hormuz. 0.51
00:08:54.600 So they need to dismantle that for oil supply, and they need to close the deal. 0.79
00:08:59.200 So, like, we're between a rock and a hard place.
00:09:01.220 It's not an easy deal to make.
00:09:02.740 You know what I mean?
00:09:03.280 By the way, let me just tell you when you're saying this.
00:09:05.300 So May 23rd, Trump says deal largely negotiated.
00:09:09.180 Oil goes down 5.5%.
00:09:10.920 Sunday, May 24th, not even fully negotiated yet.
00:09:14.760 Oil bounces up 1.5%.
00:09:16.400 May 25th, proceeding nicely.
00:09:19.360 New U.S. strikes.
00:09:20.480 Oil spikes 3%.
00:09:21.720 Tuesday, May 26th.
00:09:23.360 Good deal or deal another way.
00:09:25.900 Brent goes to 99.58.
00:09:27.600 Now it comes down, there's a deal taking place.
00:09:29.440 Then on top of that, when you're thinking about the Abraham Accords,
00:09:31.940 UAE already signed September 2020.
00:09:35.940 Bahrain already signed September 2020.
00:09:38.560 So did Morocco, which I hear Morocco's got a pretty good soccer team
00:09:41.180 going into the World Cup.
00:09:42.520 Sudan signed January of 2021.
00:09:44.520 These are golf states that we're going through, right, with Abraham Accords.
00:09:47.960 Saudi Arabia, not signed, reportedly reluctant.
00:09:53.380 They're the key mediator in the Iran deal, reportedly reluctant.
00:09:57.040 And the bigger producer.
00:09:58.040 That's right. Turkey, not signed. No public response.
00:10:00.940 So Qatar and Turkey haven't made any response.
00:10:04.920 Iran's deal intermediary is Qatar, and Turkey is a NATO member.
00:10:08.000 Erdogan called. Pakistan rejected under no impulsion.
00:10:11.700 They're saying compulsion. We're not interested for nothing. 1.00
00:10:14.740 Whatever you do, we're not even going to deal with this.
00:10:16.440 and Pakistan's the army chief in Tehran for the Iran talks.
00:10:19.700 Egypt not signed.
00:10:21.080 Already they said, we already have peace treaty with Israel since 79.
00:10:26.280 A noise Cairo separate treaty.
00:10:28.000 And Jordan said, we're not signing because we've already had a peace treaty
00:10:30.860 with Israel since 1994.
00:10:32.800 So same issue. 0.91
00:10:33.520 So take Egypt and Jordan out. 0.90
00:10:36.100 Take Turkey out. 0.99
00:10:36.740 Take Turkey out. 0.90
00:10:37.760 Yeah. 0.92
00:10:38.180 Maybe you get Qatar and Saudi.
00:10:40.100 Then you got Pakistan that's saying no.
00:10:42.060 I think you get Qatar and Saudi.
00:10:43.240 Because remember, Qatar cooperated with the U.S. request to freeze assets.
00:10:46.440 They have the largest frozen asset stack at over $6 billion.
00:10:50.520 Qatar cooperating with our government saying, OK, I'll freeze the assets and I'll hold court. 0.90
00:10:54.360 How do you get Pakistan? 0.98
00:10:55.960 How do you get Pakistan? 0.88
00:10:56.900 Pakistan and Turkey to me are the two toughest.
00:10:59.660 Turkey doesn't want to talk about Israel going back a million years.
00:11:04.300 I think it's a no deal for them.
00:11:06.100 For Turkey, no deal whatsoever.
00:11:07.740 They can never do that.
00:11:08.720 Not under the current government there.
00:11:11.540 Turkey's a no-go. 0.99
00:11:12.340 Got it.
00:11:12.760 So then do you think Trump knows this?
00:11:15.140 Of course he does.
00:11:15.780 Okay, so is he just buying time right now?
00:11:18.360 Is that what you said earlier, that he's buying time?
00:11:20.080 Yeah, that's what it sounds like to me.
00:11:21.100 He's pushing it off by saying, I have a deal done,
00:11:23.800 but all these other countries are not going along,
00:11:25.980 so I can't sign the deal.
00:11:27.400 I can't even tell you what it is because, you know, 1.00
00:11:29.720 Pakistan is being, they're not going along with the Abraham.
00:11:32.720 Oh, Saudi Arabia is objecting,
00:11:34.340 and I haven't been on the phone with Turkey just yet,
00:11:36.160 so I can't say that they're, by him saying that they all have to sign up,
00:11:39.880 it sounds like a delay tag.
00:11:41.280 Okay, so let me go to this.
00:11:43.400 Let me go to this while you're talking, right?
00:11:45.520 So we're saying all this stuff with, you know, what's going on there.
00:11:49.280 At the same time, if you go look at how the market is reacting,
00:11:53.520 what, you know, J.P. Morgan predicts, negative growth shock.
00:11:57.940 Goldilocks is leaving the building, J.P. Morgan predicts.
00:12:00.480 There's two stories here about the economy I'm coming to you with, Jeff.
00:12:03.420 So first one is from J.P. Morgan Chase.
00:12:06.040 Well, let's hit oil first.
00:12:07.620 I think that's an important point.
00:12:08.720 Go for it.
00:12:09.100 What we want to look for is from the oil market specifically,
00:12:13.800 but as a place to start.
00:12:15.020 What we're really looking for is oil to make an aggressive move
00:12:17.760 that signals that the market itself believes that this is actually happening.
00:12:22.040 So, you know, prices have been bouncing around.
00:12:24.160 If you do the math, the 10th percentile for the last two months
00:12:26.960 is about $91 per barrel.
00:12:28.740 And the high side is $106.
00:12:30.060 Right.
00:12:30.480 So it's been in a pretty, it's not a tight range,
00:12:32.760 but it's been that range for the last couple months.
00:12:35.040 What we're looking for is the market to get to a tipping point
00:12:37.980 where you say, okay, we don't have complete information,
00:12:39.640 but we're reasonably assured that this thing is going to get done.
00:12:43.340 What you're going to see is oil prices go down and then stay down.
00:12:46.620 They're probably going to bounce around a little bit.
00:12:48.320 But once they go down below $90 per barrel, then go early 80s or low 80s.
00:12:52.740 And then if they keep going into the 70s, that'll be the signal that this thing is actually happening.
00:12:58.040 So right now, it's sort of like, okay, it could possibly happen.
00:13:00.500 The probability is not zero.
00:13:02.120 So the key number is 79, 78.
00:13:03.760 Somewhere around there.
00:13:04.760 We've been as low as 83.80.
00:13:06.580 That was what you're talking about on April 17th.
00:13:08.660 That's the closing price on April 17th.
00:13:10.400 Then it bounced right back higher.
00:13:11.440 Now, there's some other factors to consider, including what ends up happening after the war, how much damage has been done to oil supply, which might push oil prices back up.
00:13:19.820 But for the oil market to tell you that we believe this thing is getting done, we need to see low 80s, if not high 70s, and then not just a bounce for a day or two in those levels.
00:13:28.680 We need to see oil prices drop down and stay there. They need to stick there.
00:13:32.240 So what does this mean to the economy, to the average person?
00:13:35.140 It means gasoline prices. It means...
00:13:37.160 It won't be going down anytime soon?
00:13:38.320 I mean, there's going to be some – I mean, prices are sticky, especially when you get further down the supply chain.
00:13:43.500 Tom, are you in the same place with them?
00:13:45.100 Yeah, the pricing of the barrel of oil will move quickly.
00:13:51.400 We have to remember where we were.
00:13:53.520 We were between 62 and 67.
00:13:56.500 Remember New Year's?
00:13:57.420 I think it was right around 57, 58.
00:13:59.680 57 December was the low.
00:14:01.180 Yeah, 57 December, and it was New Year's weekend.
00:14:03.300 And then we jumped up to 62 to 67, where we stayed basically until the war started at the end of February.
00:14:10.820 I think that's where we stayed.
00:14:11.980 So I agree that 79 is a key point because 79, Pat, is only $10 from 67, where we were in February before everything started.
00:14:20.680 So I agree with that marker.
00:14:22.260 However, it goes like this.
00:14:24.900 You know, once I sell you land so that you can feed your family, now it's going to take time to grow crops.
00:14:31.280 And right now, the supplies are so low that now we've got to get oil through the system to do it.
00:14:39.540 Now, the good news is here in the U.S., you know, we've been able to do some of that.
00:14:44.680 Not all of it, but the commodity price of oil will come down, but then it's going to take –
00:14:49.080 it's the same thing we talked about, Pat, about June 14th.
00:14:53.240 You need about, I think you need 75 days, two and a half months to start to see prices really shift because you can get everything processed.
00:15:04.380 And now cheaper diesel is being bought.
00:15:06.480 It's cheaper diesel in the truck carrying apples.
00:15:08.960 Cheaper diesel in the truck.
00:15:10.160 Cheaper stable diesel.
00:15:10.920 That's the main thing.
00:15:11.920 Yeah.
00:15:12.360 Yeah, no, I mean, it gets back down to.
00:15:14.520 Yeah, back down to a stable.
00:15:15.220 Where are we right now?
00:15:16.040 Let me read this to you.
00:15:16.820 550 diesel?
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