Valuetainment - April 09, 2026


“Trump’s Wall Of Worry” - Iran BLINKS As Ceasefire Reopens Strait of Hormuz


Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

190.68996

Word count

3,370

Sentence count

227

Harmful content

Toxicity

9

sentences flagged

Hate speech

22

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Rob and Pat discuss the latest in the Iran crisis and how to deal with it. Also, the President announces a ceasefire between Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz and talks about the future of the Middle East peace process.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.040 Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice.
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00:00:30.000 Last night, two days ago, matter of fact, let's go with the two-day sequencing.
00:00:33.920 First, the president tweets on Easter the following thing.
00:00:37.800 Rob, go to the Easter one because the Easter one is what pissed off a lot of different people.
00:00:42.280 So this is Easter's tweet that the president puts up.
00:00:45.340 He gets out there and says, Tuesday will be power plant day, bridge day, all wrapped up in one. 0.71
00:00:50.800 In Iran, there will be nothing like it. 1.00
00:00:52.420 Open the effing straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. 1.00
00:00:56.680 Just watch. Praise to Allah. 1.00
00:00:58.600 At least he's giving credit to their, you know, praise be to Allah.
00:01:01.680 Donald J. Trump.
00:01:02.800 Tucker Carlson reacts to this with a video that went viral.
00:01:06.340 Everybody reacted to it.
00:01:07.600 What is this all about?
00:01:09.220 Tucker's right.
00:01:10.260 Tucker's not right.
00:01:11.520 Why would he say such a thing like this?
00:01:13.300 Here's Tucker.
00:01:13.840 Go for it, Rob.
00:01:14.820 You think you are?
00:01:16.480 You're tweeting out the F word on Easter morning? 0.99
00:01:22.480 You'll be living in hell. 0.98
00:01:24.840 Just watch. 0.99
00:01:25.980 Praise be to Allah. 0.98
00:01:28.120 So obviously, you're mocking the religion of Iran. Okay. If you seek a religious war, 0.89
00:01:39.020 that's a good idea. But by the way, no decent person mocks other people's religions. You may 1.00
00:01:47.280 have a problem with the theology. Presumably, you do if it's not your religion, and you can
00:01:51.120 explain what that is. But to mock other people's faith is to mock the idea of faith itself.
00:01:57.440 and we should never mock that
00:01:59.180 because at its core is the acknowledgement
00:02:01.500 that we are not in charge of the universe.
00:02:03.260 We did not build it.
00:02:04.620 We won't be here at the end of it.
00:02:06.400 We can destroy life.
00:02:07.520 We cannot create it because we are not God.
00:02:09.720 The message of all faith,
00:02:12.680 the biggest picture left.
00:02:13.940 And obviously, you know,
00:02:16.060 the folks on X went to town.
00:02:18.400 Tucker's right, Tucker's wrong.
00:02:19.460 Then they played the greatest hits in the past
00:02:20.900 of Tucker criticizing Islam
00:02:22.360 and saying, hey, what happened to you?
00:02:24.040 Did you switch?
00:02:24.680 Did you not?
00:02:25.060 So the president, you know, hears the message coming from the market.
00:02:29.240 And you would think the next day the president would get a little bit more softer.
00:02:33.080 And then this is what he says the following day with his tweets.
00:02:36.440 And everyone's like, Pat, how come you don't react to this?
00:02:39.320 This is not how a president speaks.
00:02:41.500 Rob, if you want to pull up the wild one, a whole civilization will die tonight.
00:02:48.380 Never to be brought back again.
00:02:50.520 I don't want that to happen, but it probably will.
00:02:53.040 However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionally wonderful can happen.
00:03:02.860 Who knows?
00:03:03.920 We will find out tonight one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world.
00:03:08.880 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end.
00:03:14.340 God bless the great people of Iran.
00:03:17.540 So then that phrase got people reacting, saying,
00:03:21.580 who in the history of mankind has ever said a whole civilization will end tonight?
00:03:27.280 Which civilization?
00:03:28.380 And people started speculating.
00:03:30.100 Is it Iran? Is it this?
00:03:32.660 Who is he talking about?
00:03:33.880 Anyway, so that happens.
00:03:36.680 And then it leads to the ceasefire, which the call happened yesterday,
00:03:41.920 based on a conversation with Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif
00:03:44.220 and Federal Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan and Warren,
00:03:47.760 they dequested that I hold off the destructive force 0.98
00:03:50.400 being sent tonight to Iran 0.88
00:03:51.720 and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran,
00:03:54.460 agreeing to the complete immediate and safe opening
00:03:56.480 of the Strait of Hormuz. 0.87
00:03:57.600 I agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran
00:03:59.620 for a period of two weeks. 0.79
00:04:01.700 This will be double-sided ceasefire.
00:04:03.500 The reason for doing so is that we have already met
00:04:05.600 and exceeded all military objectives
00:04:07.240 and we are very far along
00:04:10.800 with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran
00:04:14.760 and peace in the Middle East.
00:04:16.060 We received a 10-point proposal from Iran
00:04:17.980 and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.
00:04:21.380 Almost all of the various points of past contention
00:04:23.960 have been agreed to between U.S. and Iran,
00:04:26.420 but a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalized
00:04:29.160 and consummated on behalf of the United States of America
00:04:32.220 as president and also represented countries in the Middle East.
00:04:34.440 It is an honor to have this long-term problem close to resolution.
00:04:37.500 And then, of course, thank you for your attention to this matter.
00:04:40.060 While this happens, minutes after this tweet happens, there's attacks.
00:04:44.860 Iran attacks, I believe, bombs Israel.
00:04:47.220 Israel attacks them.
00:04:48.200 Jesse Waters retweeted a clip saying minutes after this was tweeted, and everybody reacted.
00:04:52.980 Is the ceasefire going to happen?
00:04:54.100 Is it not going to happen?
00:04:55.040 I have my own strong thoughts on this.
00:04:57.520 Is this it, Rob, that was shown?
00:04:59.180 Yes, sir.
00:04:59.500 Go for it.
00:04:59.820 This is minutes after the president tweets that.
00:05:02.880 Go ahead.
00:05:05.200 Well, Jesse, as anticipated, the sirens are now wailing over Tel Aviv.
00:05:09.400 indicating that another missile is inbound and it looks like those bright lights in the sky
00:05:16.220 are the missiles and it looks like you can see an interceptor that is in hot pursuit
00:05:21.420 of the missiles and it's always quite dramatic when you see those interceptors going after it
00:05:29.460 and these ones might disappear behind our building here we're going to lose sight of them
00:05:33.540 but they're still quite lethal and coming into Tel Aviv.
00:05:38.380 And I didn't see an interception in this case.
00:05:41.440 You should be able to hear it in a second or so.
00:05:44.980 You can pause it right here.
00:05:46.440 Okay, so that's that.
00:05:47.360 That's happening.
00:05:47.940 So people are like, they didn't keep the ceasefire,
00:05:49.380 all this other stuff.
00:05:50.880 I'll pause here because we got a lot of other things
00:05:52.960 that we'll get into with this here.
00:05:54.060 Tom, your thoughts from the comments, first comments,
00:05:58.020 his second comments, Tucker's comments,
00:06:00.180 and then obviously the ceasefire today.
00:06:01.680 And then Colin, I'm going to come to you next.
00:06:02.780 Well, I think basically what happened over Easter weekend is President Kaiser Soce, I mean Trump, really played a Kaiser Soce moment.
00:06:13.660 And he's been negotiating this. He's had Whitcoff negotiating this.
00:06:17.780 Vance was in Budapest talking to Viktor Orban, which I think is very interesting because I think that's like a like a center point there between Putin, Ukraine and this on both sides of it.
00:06:29.160 And Orban can also talk to the, you know, the Iranians.
00:06:32.780 So what do I think happened? I think that perhaps Iran blinked.
00:06:39.720 All of a sudden we heard that they made a comment in a positive direction on nukes after he's saying, I don't want to do this, but I'm going to do this.
00:06:48.000 And the Kaiser associate principal says you have to the other side has to think that you're one percent crazier than they are so that they become nervous.
00:06:56.660 And there was a lot of commentary that went around when Reagan was elected that there were people inside the Iranian government at that time.
00:07:06.600 And it was an early government. It hadn't been around for 50 years.
00:07:09.860 It was the now volatile government. But they actually thought Reagan was bonkers. 0.92
00:07:14.960 They thought he was insane and willing to use, you know, nukes and things. 0.80
00:07:19.320 And that got the hostage crisis moving.
00:07:21.800 So I think what happened is he went in with a hard negotiating position.
00:07:27.160 I think Iran blinked a little bit and said, OK, OK, let's let's discuss this.
00:07:33.440 And I think there were other people working on it.
00:07:35.280 I think China was working on it because now we know China is in a crude oil deficit right now.
00:07:41.000 They're in a shortage right now and they're feeling true economic pinch.
00:07:44.780 So I think then he comes out with this and finishing it up,
00:07:50.020 showing that he can say F you on one hand,
00:07:54.640 but then at the other side he's saying God bless the people of Iran.
00:07:58.860 He wants them to see that as well, Pat.
00:08:00.860 He wants the citizens to see that last line.
00:08:03.540 Colin, where are you at with this?
00:08:04.380 Yeah, I agree.
00:08:05.220 I mean, it kind of reminds me of the tariff playbook
00:08:08.360 because he did a similar sort of negotiating tactic back last April
00:08:12.480 where he makes these very extreme, almost like seemingly very irrational positions.
00:08:17.180 He goes really far to one side, probably doesn't really mean that.
00:08:21.660 And it forces the other side to come to the middle a little bit.
00:08:24.540 And this seems to be part of the Trump negotiating playbook, you know.
00:08:27.380 So he's doing the same thing here.
00:08:29.860 Is it the most diplomatic way to do all of this?
00:08:32.420 I don't know.
00:08:33.300 Probably not.
00:08:35.260 But at the same time, I mean, this is probably, I mean, considering we're only about six weeks
00:08:41.080 in, this is starting to look like about as good of an outcome as we could probably expect.
00:08:47.620 I mean, two days ago, it seemed like, you know, maybe something really bad was going
00:08:53.100 to happen, that this was going to escalate, that we were going to have boots on the ground.
00:08:56.280 And so now you're getting into a position where it looks like this is really coming
00:09:01.080 to a close.
00:09:02.020 Everybody, I think, wanted an off ramp for this thing.
00:09:04.980 And here we are.
00:09:06.300 So I think that, you know, that he did the same thing with the, if you remember the tariffs,
00:09:10.800 he said, six weeks, I'll make a six week deal with you. I'll make a six week deal with you.
00:09:14.340 I'll make a six week deal with you. And he did that for months and months and months. And it
00:09:18.120 was slowly an off ramp for everybody getting off of the tariffs there. And the same thing sort of
00:09:22.580 happening here where, you know, he says two weeks. I think, you know, frankly, I think this thing
00:09:27.460 really, the markets probably bottomed a week ago. Oil probably peaked a week ago. So I think we were
00:09:33.640 starting to find a bottom in a lot of this stuff. And that's going to play out. I mean, Trump is a
00:09:37.740 master of building a wall of worry for the market. And so, you know, all of this stuff is a persistent
00:09:43.420 worry, but really markets look ahead of that. The economy looks ahead of that. Yeah, it's true. And
00:09:48.480 Rob, if you want to pull up the market watch numbers, crude oil is down $20, okay, from $1.12
00:09:54.800 to $92, down 18%. Dow Jones futures up 2.7. S&P futures up 2.67. NASDAQ futures up 3.5.
00:10:04.880 Gold is up 3%, up to $4,800.
00:10:08.000 Silver is up 7.73%.
00:10:10.220 And then you have Bitcoin is up to $71,000.
00:10:14.240 And some of the stuff that's happening.
00:10:16.240 But Brandon, do you have an opposing opinion?
00:10:19.960 I want to hear that.
00:10:20.840 Go for it.
00:10:21.280 I sure do.
00:10:21.800 Go ahead.
00:10:22.100 So listen, I'm supporting Trump.
00:10:24.340 I hope everything he does is the best thing for the country.
00:10:28.240 I support him this whole time and everything.
00:10:30.240 But I think he stumbled upon the fact here that we've put ourselves in the terrible position of not being equipped to deal with a situation like this.
00:10:37.960 You know, Ukraine went through, I believe, 10 years of weapons that were built in the first five weeks of the Ukraine war.
00:10:44.300 So we've been seeing in the headlines for the last four years, there's huge shortages of these defense missiles we've been using.
00:10:50.480 And I don't think we have the capacity to keep this up for much longer.
00:10:53.160 You know, the oil is the one thing.
00:10:54.400 But, yeah, sure, we're the best military in the world.
00:10:56.840 We have the most advanced technology, but we've had our manufacturing hollowed out over the last several decades.
00:11:02.500 So that's the most unsettling thing to me.
00:11:04.700 I think that's what we need to be putting our effort in behind the scenes is to ramp that back up,
00:11:08.440 because we're not in a position to carry this out if we wanted to.
00:11:11.160 So, yes, I agree that the Kaiser-Sose thing, I don't think Trump's crazy or unhinged Iraq.
00:11:16.280 I think he was acting that way to try to scare them into something that was palatable.
00:11:19.860 But I don't think this is an optimal outcome at all.
00:11:22.300 I think we're in a worse situation than we were before he started this thing,
00:11:24.740 Because now Iran has realized, OK, we could flip this switch of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, which they didn't even blockade it.
00:11:30.320 They just have the mere threat of a drone hitting a ship that's going through.
00:11:34.100 So it's not like they're moving ships out of the way.
00:11:36.160 When you say they're clearing the strait, they're just promising not to drone strike any boats to go through.
00:11:40.280 So I don't even know if boats are going to have the courage to go through it, even though they're saying, yeah, there's a ceasefire.
00:11:44.860 Yeah, we're not going to do anything to you.
00:11:46.380 So who wins from this?
00:11:48.100 Because for me, you know, Trump's negotiation, when people are like, I can't believe he said this, I can't believe he said this, stop being surprised with what he says.
00:11:55.040 I mean, he made that, you should have already been baptized to that in 2015 when he started campaigning on this stuff.
00:12:01.180 They're rapists, they're sending their wars, they're this.
00:12:03.140 He's been doing a shock job, you know, to get people to react to it for a long time. 0.95
00:12:07.820 So I do think you have to act crazier.
00:12:10.000 I do think you have to act like you have nothing to lose.
00:12:11.840 I do think you have to kind of come from that strength position, 0.99
00:12:14.720 and especially when you're dealing with people from Iran. 1.00
00:12:18.280 That part I agree with.
00:12:19.840 But who – I just sent a poll to Rob, and I want to see what our audience is going to say.
00:12:24.080 Because our audience is fairly reasonable.
00:12:26.360 Who do you think won in this ceasefire?
00:12:28.540 Iran, U.S., or too early to tell?
00:12:31.160 Iran's in a better position than they were before because they have more leverage over the U.S.
00:12:34.040 than the rest of the world now. 0.58
00:12:35.000 Do you agree, Tom?
00:12:36.520 No.
00:12:37.040 Tell me why. 0.57
00:12:37.580 Now, I think Iran agreeing to a ceasefire, I don't see how you say they win, because basically we're about to escalate from military targets, and we hit another military target on Karg Island two days ago, so they know what's coming, and they know what's next. 0.88
00:12:58.900 and you're talking about power plants you're talking about that you're talking about the 0.96
00:13:02.160 pumping station on karg island it's they're one step from that and so do they win technically
00:13:10.740 yeah they win not being more fully destroyed but i don't think they win anything in a ceasefire
00:13:17.320 because we're not saying i've had enough let's have a ceasefire we're saying to them have you
00:13:22.140 had enough do you want to ceasefire have you had enough yeah that's one way to look at it but
00:13:27.120 think about it like this like how frequently do we disagree with iran in terms of they want
00:13:31.060 something we want something different pretty frequently right so they've now realized that
00:13:35.460 they could simply put out the threat of hey anything that goes through the um the straightforward
00:13:39.440 moves we're going to knock it out we're going to hit with the drone and shut down global traffic
00:13:43.460 there like they didn't have that before you know the and we wanted them to stop doing that and
00:13:48.460 couldn't make them stop by brute force you know that's an objective fact we i don't think we were
00:13:53.240 able to do that you know i think we would have done that if we were able to do it so so you're
00:13:56.540 saying okay so let me give some stats here 92 percent of iran's largest vessels destroyed that's
00:14:01.480 140 plus iran's missile drone attack rate down 90 from week one the death rate for iran is at
00:14:09.800 i don't know 10 000 killed in nearly a thousand civilians you know six seven thousand military
00:14:15.920 personnel that's for the first 34 days we're at what days right now we're at uh 39 39 days okay
00:14:21.600 So 4 million people have displaced, 3.2 million in Iran, 1.2 million in Lebanon.
00:14:27.760 So when you look at that, and then the argument, Tom, is made by some people saying,
00:14:32.200 I do think this is, you just gave Iran a two-week timeout.
00:14:36.160 And that two-week timeout is for them to go out there and figure out other ways on what to do with Russia and China.
00:14:40.080 Because this negotiation was involving who? 0.60
00:14:43.180 Pakistan is the one that brokered it.
00:14:44.680 They said China made a phone call to get Iran to kind of be like, hey, listen, this is a good thing for you to do.
00:14:49.980 So China was involved in helping with this.
00:14:52.800 But what do you think Iran's going to be doing next two weeks? 1.00
00:14:55.580 I think China's the winner, actually. 0.98
00:14:57.260 It's funny you mention them because, I mean, you look at everybody in the room here.
00:15:01.320 China all of a sudden looks like the adult in the room.
00:15:03.940 And I think their negotiating position in terms of everything involving Taiwan, I mean, that's my big worry.
00:15:10.700 I typically, I look at big geopolitical risks like this, the tariffs last year, even this thing I said, this can't last.
00:15:18.600 this won't last more than a few weeks it's just politically it can't you can't go into the midterms
00:15:22.720 with four dollar gasoline and six and a half percent mortgage rates it's just it's impossible
00:15:27.300 it's a narrative killer and so but the the geopolitical risk that is extremely worrisome 0.86
00:15:33.160 in the long run is china going into taiwan because it disrupts so many things that has the potential
00:15:38.360 to turn into such a big flare-up china's position i think across the board has strengthened 0.99
00:15:44.540 sequentially across time as we get closer and closer to that potential inevitability. 0.98
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