Valuetainment - “Very Dangerous Bluff” - Carney WARNS Alberta Over Succession Fears

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00:00:30.000 So consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries.

00:00:36.440 Okay, this is a CNBC story.

00:00:38.900 Index consumer sentiment fell from 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2.

00:00:43.980 It also well below the 49.8 levels we saw at the end of April.

00:00:47.920 Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruption.

00:00:50.960 The Strait of Hormuz continues to boost gasoline prices.

00:00:53.160 and sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough

00:00:59.000 seen in June of 2022.

00:01:00.900 Critically, consumer peer worried that inflation will increase.

00:01:03.900 Now, while you're seeing numbers like this with the consumer, okay,

00:01:07.600 and where they're at with the market, Trump knows this.

00:01:09.980 Trump's paying attention to numbers like this.

00:01:11.580 He knows, you know, he is dealing with this,

00:01:14.100 whether it's going into midterm or whatever you want to call it.

00:01:17.240 If this is happening, report comes out yesterday,

00:01:20.900 which is very interesting, Rob.

00:01:22.240 If you want to play this clip, not this one, the one that shows how many of Trump's endorsements have won.

00:01:29.180 Because this wasn't the case with midterms in 2022 when it happened.

00:01:33.780 This wasn't the case earlier.

00:01:35.720 But a video comes out yesterday.

00:01:38.140 I don't know if it was Fox or CNN.

00:01:39.740 It was one of the two that showed 117.

00:01:43.500 Not this one, Rob.

00:01:44.540 That one right there.

00:01:45.280 But can you make that bigger?

00:01:46.080 Watch this.

00:01:46.540 Go ahead.

00:01:46.740 Press play.

00:01:47.580 Watch this.

00:01:48.140 This is his scorecard, okay?

00:01:51.340 He has endorsed eight governors.

00:01:53.360 Now, some of these races weren't real close, didn't have a lot of competition, but some

00:01:56.340 of them did.

00:01:57.200 I mean, we saw what happened in Louisiana, the primary of Bill Cassidy.

00:01:59.900 We saw what happened a week ago tonight with Tom Massey in Kentucky, and now we're seeing

00:02:04.340 it again tonight, okay, in Texas.

00:02:06.000 Governor level, Trump endorsed eight.

00:02:08.520 He won eight times.

00:02:09.940 U.S. House, 101 endorsed.

00:02:11.780 That's insane.

00:02:12.260 He won.

00:02:13.780 Yeah, sorry.

00:02:14.680 101 endorsed in the House, and he won 101.

00:02:17.760 Let me put on the pencil right here and show you this.

00:02:19.600 U.S. Senate, Sean, he has endorsed eight candidates.

00:02:23.960 And prior to tonight, he had won eight times.

00:02:26.900 And now you can take the endorsement from eight to nine endorsed and from eight to nine winner.

00:02:35.200 Ken Paxton was outspent nine to one.

00:02:38.640 Got the endorsement from Trump, got the endorsement of Wesley Hunt,

00:02:41.560 a congressman who got knocked out two and a half months ago.

00:02:44.600 And now we got the set up in Paxton of Tallarico.

00:02:47.080 Many Republicans felt if John Cornyn could win tonight, that he could be an easy winner over Tallarico.

00:02:54.020 We'll never know that now.

00:02:55.700 And a lot of Republicans felt.

00:02:57.700 118 endorsements, 118 won.

00:03:01.440 So this whole message that Trump doesn't have the influence he won't longer.

00:03:05.900 I had Ken Paxson on on the podcast, what, two weeks ago, Rob?

00:03:09.360 It was probably less than two weeks ago.

00:03:11.200 Last week.

00:03:11.780 Last week.

00:03:12.280 We're talking to the guy.

00:03:13.260 He was down.

00:03:14.580 While we had him on, he was down to Cornyn.

00:03:16.380 nine times more spent and then all of a sudden the day after the podcast he gets the endorsement

00:03:22.060 from the president he beat you know how much he beat him by can you pull up by how much

00:03:26.440 ken paxton the ag beat cornyn who has been in the system for 40 plus years he's been the system

00:03:33.440 he beat him by 27 points you're talking about a landslide victory not something small so

00:03:43.620 So, Humberto, I'll come to you.

00:03:45.480 For all these people that keep criticizing and say, well, you know, the economy and this and this and that,

00:03:49.560 why do his endorsement right there?

00:03:51.380 Look at this.

00:03:52.760 62 to 37, he won by 134,000 votes, 207,000 to 341.

00:03:59.980 That was early.

00:04:01.180 They had called that.

00:04:01.920 That was 33% of the vote.

00:04:03.260 It was worse than that.

00:04:04.560 Yeah.

00:04:04.900 And he had a massive lead at the beginning.

00:04:07.720 So, Humberto, where are you at with this?

00:04:09.220 Economy on one end, but there's still endorsement carries weight.

00:04:12.420 The thing is that President Trump has something really special because sometimes you will see that he picks not the obvious candidate.

00:04:19.700 So this is part of his likability and the weight he carries.

00:04:22.700 But he's also very observant.

00:04:24.940 He knows talent.

00:04:26.700 You know what I mean?

00:04:27.140 For example, the race in California.

00:04:30.440 You know, you will think that the obvious candidate would have been Sheriff Bianco.

00:04:36.680 Yeah, Sheriff Bianco.

00:04:38.240 But he picked, you know.

00:04:39.220 Steve Hilton.

00:04:39.740 Steve Hilton.

00:04:40.400 You know what I mean?

00:04:41.460 So it's part, you know, his likability and it's part skill.

00:04:44.580 Like, he won't pick anybody.

00:04:45.760 He will learn about them.

00:04:47.360 But his record wasn't this good in 2022.

00:04:50.300 His record has never been this good.

00:04:52.160 He's undefeated right now.

00:04:53.780 I think he's making better picks.

00:04:55.540 You think it's because he's making better picks?

00:04:57.580 Some people would say if he would have picked Cornyn,

00:05:00.780 Cornyn would have won.

00:05:02.580 Meaning if he would have said Cornyn, Cornyn is winning.

00:05:04.700 But this was a very good pick.

00:05:06.140 It's a beatdown.

00:05:07.220 It's not about a good pick.

00:05:09.060 And he's a great guy.

00:05:10.120 I understand that, but he picked the underdog.

00:05:12.400 So to the people that keep criticizing him, you can say whatever you want.

00:05:17.320 The market is reacting to his endorsements.

00:05:19.800 The market's reacting to his endorsements.

00:05:21.240 Is it going to be enough to work in California?

00:05:23.640 I don't know.

00:05:24.060 I know Al Green is out.

00:05:25.420 If you know who Al Green is.

00:05:26.500 I know.

00:05:26.820 That's wonderful.

00:05:27.480 Al Green lost yesterday, and the market couldn't believe that this guy,

00:05:32.840 an establishment guy, is going to be gone.

00:05:34.440 The guy that pulled up with signs got kicked out of the thing twice.

00:05:37.520 Right there, Rob.

00:05:37.840 Go to the one above.

00:05:39.200 up. Go to the one above. Yeah, that one right there, right there. If you can play that, it's

00:05:43.540 only 38 seconds. Go for it. A jarring one to see, I think, just in terms of where expectations were.

00:05:49.580 Green, one four bend in a landslide in the preliminary, getting crushed by Menifee here

00:05:56.140 in his home base. And again, that's Harris County. And so our decision desk is saying-

00:06:01.080 You can pause that. Some interesting people are out. It'll be interesting to see what happens

00:06:04.960 next. But Trump's still carrying that weight. Now, going into Canada, Tom, I'm going to come

00:06:08.820 you with this one here. Carney's got a little bit of an interesting thing he's dealing with

00:06:13.420 Alberta. Alberta's coming out saying, hey, we want to do a vote to see if we can do a Brexit style

00:06:19.260 and Alberta leaves Canada. What do you mean? Yeah, we just kind of want to leave and do our own thing

00:06:24.760 because, you know, we don't like the way you're governing. And Mark Carney is reacting to it

00:06:30.780 saying, wait a minute, what are you guys talking about? You know, Prime Minister Mark Carney has

00:06:35.080 warned Alberta's push for separation from Canada is a dangerous bluff that its supporters would

00:06:39.780 regret, much like the UK's Brexiters, who want to rejoin the EU. Kearney, who was the Bank of

00:06:44.060 England's governor during Britain's Brexit referendum in 2016, said many proponents who

00:06:48.880 wanted to leave the bloc now regret the decision. I saw firsthand what happened in UK when the view

00:06:55.500 was, vote for this, it'll be soft, and then we'll negotiate. They're still 10 years later trying to

00:07:01.620 undo what people didn't think they were voting for, but what they ended up having.

00:07:06.100 Alberta's premier, Daniel Smith, on Thursday, go to her first, Rob, if you can, before we

00:07:10.960 go to Carney's, announced plans to hold a public vote on October 19th to decide whether

00:07:18.060 to pursue a referendum for the province to separate from Canada.

00:07:23.200 So if you type in Daniel Smith, Alberta, it'll come up.

00:07:26.700 She was all over the place yesterday.

00:07:29.700 It's a short video that they have.

00:07:34.240 No, that's not the one.

00:07:35.360 Go a little bit lower.

00:07:36.560 Not that one.

00:07:37.120 Okay, I'll find it.

00:07:37.780 I'll text it to you if you want.

00:07:38.660 That's one right there, Rob.

00:07:39.600 That's one right there.

00:07:40.440 Yeah.

00:07:41.000 Go to the top one.

00:07:42.000 Go to the top one if you can.

00:07:43.500 Yeah, go for it.

00:07:44.620 I have a very clear understanding of what the duty to consult really means and what it doesn't mean.

00:07:49.540 And I think at the moment, there's a lack of clarity on that.

00:07:52.800 And you've talked a lot about...

00:07:54.020 I'd like to respond.

00:07:55.060 Is this the one?

00:07:55.860 Zoom out a little bit, Rob.

00:07:56.760 No, I think we know that that is not correct.

00:07:59.320 Is that the one with Alberta wanting to leave?

00:08:02.140 Specifically, and we spoke about this, so I don't mind.

00:08:05.740 Can you mute it?

00:08:06.280 Yeah, go back to Mark Carney's, and then we'll come back.

00:08:08.180 I'll send you the one that I have.

00:08:09.280 Go for it.

00:08:10.940 Question in terms of the specifics of the question.

00:08:14.580 We have an obligation as the federal government to look at the question

00:08:17.980 and determine whether it's consistent with the Clarity Act that is underway.

00:08:23.160 ultimately if there are questions around that questions about the clarity of the

00:08:28.720 of the question if you fall that would be a role for Parliament I'm not saying

00:08:33.560 that's the case but I'm just we're just in the process of doing our due diligence

00:08:37.400 I will say I will make the following observation though about the question

00:08:41.700 and it's this is an observation from experience in these separation issues it

00:08:49.100 It is often advanced that vote for this and it's a free option.

00:08:53.940 Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in a future negotiation.

00:08:57.900 That is a very dangerous bluff.

00:08:59.900 That is a very dangerous bluff.

00:09:01.840 I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was vote for this.

00:09:07.040 Tom, how likely is it that this could possibly happen?

00:09:11.840 Well, let me show you the tale of the tape in Canada.

00:09:14.120 First of all, it's not likely it can happen.

00:09:15.940 But why are Albertans upset?

00:09:18.300 This is the Texas of Canada.

00:09:20.320 Equalization payments.

00:09:21.360 This is where they take tax dollars and they give them to the provinces who are more liberal.

00:09:27.960 And the provinces that do better are the ones that have to take their excess dollars and get given to everybody else.

00:09:34.700 Will you please look at the Canadian provinces and the bar chart that says AB.

00:09:40.080 You see that, Pat?

00:09:41.360 That's Alberta. 1.00

00:09:43.160 Look how high it sticks up. 0.85

00:09:44.800 Alberta makes tax dollars 1.00

00:09:47.600 Look who gets the tax dollars

00:09:49.760 Nova Scotia

00:09:51.700 New Brunswick

00:09:52.660 Quebec

00:09:53.540 Manitoba

00:09:55.300 Look at that

00:09:56.140 This is why the people of Alberta are upset

00:09:58.680 The equalization payments are going to the other provinces

00:10:02.440 In other words, the ones

00:10:03.400 They can't carry their own weight with liberal policies

00:10:05.960 And look at that

00:10:07.320 It sticks up

00:10:08.660 It's just shocking

00:10:09.580 You find that shocking, Jeff?

00:10:11.360 It's crazy

00:10:12.100 I mean, why do you think they want to secede?

00:10:14.800 We're making money. We have we're making with oil and agriculture and and and everything we do.

00:10:21.320 We're the Texas of Canada. I look at it this way.

00:10:24.580 The reason it's unlikely is because Ottawa could even if they wanted to say, OK, we'll trade you Minnesota for which is like another Quebec, but weirder.

00:10:34.200 We'll change you Minnesota for Alberta. I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

00:10:39.960 Take a look this and they'd have to take the Timberwolves. So the take a look.

00:10:43.840 this is why they're upset it's not likely pat but this chart right here is why the people

00:10:49.100 of alberta are pissed off you see that chart that's their tax dollars and the red is tax

00:10:55.640 dollars that go to other people that can't carry their own weight that's why alberta's pissed

00:10:59.900 it's not going to happen because there's the constitutional process in canada is dragged i

00:11:04.340 mean the vote is just the start of the process and even the the premier of alberta miss smith

00:11:08.800 she's not for it either she's saying i mean she's actually a good politician here saying look i'm

00:11:13.540 Not for independence, but I think we need to put it to a vote just to put this issue to rest.

00:11:16.940 But it's got to go through parliament.

00:11:19.020 It's got to go through all sorts of – it's never going to happen.

00:11:22.220 But the issue goes beyond.

00:11:23.400 The chart is why the Albertans are upset.

00:11:25.160 That's where it starts.

00:11:25.940 I know.

00:11:26.340 They have a recent –

00:11:27.200 It goes beyond that, though.

00:11:28.260 It's like Iowa being governed by New York City.

00:11:31.840 There's different value systems in Alberta.

00:11:34.740 The Midwest of Canada is a lot like the Midwest of the United States.

00:11:37.680 There's very different value systems, very different political identities,

00:11:40.840 very different political philosophies.

00:11:43.460 It's almost like they're two different countries at this point.

00:11:46.000 And so the independence movement, it's like you're seeing in a place like Oregon, where parts of Oregon want to secede.

00:11:52.160 Well, Quebec wants to be independent for a long time.

00:11:54.760 You know, it's very unlikely the culture, Justin, Rob, is 20 percent chance that the referendum goes through.

00:12:01.460 If the referendum goes through, they will need to win by a large margin, like 60 percent plus, so they get taken seriously.

00:12:09.320 They only have 35 percent support right now for this, 25 to 40 percent support.

00:12:12.640 It will need to be a very clear signal, like 60% plus.

00:12:15.880 So Congress takes it seriously.

00:12:18.500 They need to see if it's clear enough of a signal to put it to vote.

00:12:22.360 If they put it to vote, they might secede and join the United States.

00:12:26.040 But we don't need to train Minnesota.

00:12:27.440 I like Minnesotans.

00:12:29.760 You don't need to what? 0.60

00:12:31.420 Trade them for Minnesota.

00:12:34.100 Well, that's a whole thing.

00:12:35.320 They've said they don't want to join the U.S. either.

00:12:37.260 Even if they do secede from Canada, they want to be a separate state.

00:12:40.920 But but I mean, that's it's just I think the most important part of this is that it's registering the voter sentiment.

00:12:48.420 Yeah, it's it's more than dissatisfaction.

00:12:50.380 We've gone past dissatisfaction.

00:12:51.900 We've gone way past apathy.

00:12:53.340 Apathy is where it always starts.

00:12:54.500 You go way past apathy.

00:12:55.600 Now we're into voter dissatisfaction to the point that we need to fight back.

00:12:58.860 It's getting to the point where people are tired of being governed by people who don't take you seriously.

00:13:03.420 In fact, it's the same thing, you know, fly over country, the idea of fly over people on the coast in the United States.

00:13:09.180 It's not that they don't necessarily agree with people in the middle of the country. 0.58

00:13:13.260 They don't even like them.

00:13:14.780 And it shows in a lot of the policies that come up.

00:13:17.300 Same thing in Canada.

00:13:18.600 Ottawa does not govern for Alberta.

00:13:20.720 Ottawa governs for Ontario and Quebec and maybe, what is it, British Columbia over there in the west.

00:13:25.920 And 60% of the Quebecois are hyper-liberals.

00:13:29.580 Yes, they're not Alberta.

00:13:32.560 Yeah, that's the residents of Quebec and Montreal.

00:13:37.680 Say it again one more time.

00:13:38.700 How do you say it?

00:13:39.180 Kupakwa.

00:13:39.880 Kupakwa.

00:13:40.520 I love it.

00:13:41.100 Folks, if you're running a business and you're hiring people, there is nothing more annoying than when you hire people and it doesn't go your way.

00:13:51.180 And often it ends up costing you a ton of money.

00:13:54.560 Rob, go ahead and play this clip.

00:13:56.120 So the average bad hire a small business owner makes costs the company $17,000.

00:14:00.120 The worst hires could cost you $240,000.

00:14:02.980 Why?

00:14:03.220 It's not just losing the employee.

00:14:04.860 Many times you lose them.

00:14:06.680 They're sitting next to somebody.

00:14:07.880 They've already infected the negativity on them.

00:14:09.960 They draw that person out.

00:14:11.040 Imagine that person was with you for two years.

00:14:13.200 And many times you knew this was not a good fit.

00:14:15.480 You knew this wasn't going to be somebody that was going to work with you culturally,

00:14:18.620 but you looked the other way.

00:14:19.500 You didn't have a system on who to hire.

00:14:21.080 You didn't have a system on what questions to ask.

00:14:23.000 Your calibration wasn't in place.

00:14:24.400 So one of the best things we're going to do this year at the Vol Conference,

00:14:27.160 live in front of 12,000 people, we're going to bring a few of our employees up there

00:14:32.120 and show you how we calibrate quarterly on how we score people on five different metrics

00:14:36.980 and why this has helped our company's retention go higher

00:14:40.680 as well as grow exponentially in ways we've never experienced before.

00:14:44.000 And this will only happen at the Vault Conference that we host once a year.

00:14:48.100 12,000 people from 60-plus countries will be attending the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas

00:14:52.660 August 31st through September 3rd, going through this 296-page manual together.

00:14:58.220 And if you haven't yet registered, click on the link above or below.

00:15:02.000 Get registered.

00:15:02.860 You may want to bring your team with you.

00:15:05.400 It'll be a very special event this year.

00:15:06.900 Looking forward to seeing you there.

00:15:08.020 There you go.

00:15:08.520 Go to vault2026.com.

00:15:10.720 Again, vault2026.com.

00:15:13.600 Speaker, Stephen Bartlett from the Diary of the CEO.

00:15:15.880 He'll be there.

00:15:16.400 Logan Paul will be there to talk about how to create a brand.

00:15:19.780 Then we'll have Joe Montana and Jerry Rice simultaneously interview on how to find a running mate.

00:15:24.360 When you get a running mate, what happens to you?

00:15:25.860 And last but not least, Dan Martell, author of Buy Back Your Time, who has exited multiple companies.

00:15:31.900 We'll discuss how to leverage AI today.

00:15:33.920 Go to vault2026.com.

00:15:35.540 Get registered.

00:15:36.160 Cannot wait to see all of you guys there.

00:15:38.240 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:15:40.980 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

Valuetainment - May 30, 2026

“Very Dangerous Bluff” - Carney WARNS Alberta Over Succession Fears

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