Valuetainment - ＂Worse Than a Recession＂ - Tony Robbins Breaks Down Ray Dalio's Warning on U.S. Debt

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00:00:29.060 to raise manply. He's talking about robots, 10 years, more robots. Elon talked about it. There's

00:00:33.320 going to be more robots. I think we're going to sell 10 to 30 million robots. And he's like,

00:00:36.940 wait, what? Yeah, I think Tesla is going to sell 10 to 30. And the way he answered it was like,

00:00:40.960 that's not a big deal, right? He talked about this last year. We all saw that clip. How do

00:00:45.300 you feel about what's happening with companies like Autopilot that they're able to go get the

00:00:50.260 13F filing of what Jim Simons was doing with Renaissance Technology, who has been doing 49%

00:00:55.680 and I can match their 13F filings and I just put it in there.

00:00:58.340 You know, the whole Nancy Pelosi trader, the upside-down Kramer.

00:01:01.900 What do you think that's going to do to the market?

00:01:03.900 Do you believe in that concept?

00:01:05.200 What do you think that's going to do?

00:01:05.840 Most of that is more marketing than substance because even on the 13F filings,

00:01:09.880 there's a huge delay between now and the time.

00:01:13.040 You don't know when they sell, right?

00:01:14.040 You don't know if they've sold it, so it's totally gone.

00:01:16.440 You know, the Nancy Pelosi or the Jim Kramer things,

00:01:19.520 you know, those are great marketing.

00:01:21.100 They may work, they may not.

00:01:22.260 It really doesn't drive things near as much as the just reality of indexing, because the amount of indexing that has happened in our country and around the world, that is what's created this concentration.

00:01:32.860 That's what's created all this correlation to where when things move, they move in the same direction.

00:01:37.640 A very simple portfolio that was well diversified in 2005 had an average correlation, cross correlation, as it's called, of 0.16.

00:01:46.740 Remember, one is fully correlated.

00:01:48.420 Zero is not 0.16.

00:01:50.080 Today, that exact same portfolio and the exact same weights is 0.65.

00:01:55.420 Nothing's changed with those assets other than the concentration and indexing that has happened

00:01:59.840 that when people are sellers, everybody's a seller.

00:02:03.040 When people are a buyer, everybody's a buyer.

00:02:05.020 Because when you buy the ETF, you buy that index fund, they have to literally be a seller

00:02:10.240 or they have to be a buyer.

00:02:11.620 There is no in-between.

00:02:13.200 So in stress environments, when the market gets stressed, correlation goes up.

00:02:17.760 that exact same portfolio in stress environments, average correlation is over 85%. Everything gets

00:02:24.680 hammered at the same time except for a few assets. That's why the holy grail of investing is so

00:02:29.040 important. That's why it has to be things that truly are less correlated or not correlated at

00:02:33.600 all in somebody's portfolio to get them off the roller coaster, get them on the escalator.

00:02:38.500 You're a big fan of Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio, I spent some time with him at his Bridgewater. He's right

00:02:43.160 across an R-Monk, right?

00:02:44.460 Right by IBM, I think, where his headquarters is at.

00:02:47.360 He has been talking about many signs.

00:02:50.440 We just crossed $40 trillion of debt, right?

00:02:52.440 And he's been talking a lot about, hey, all the signs of the Great Depression,

00:02:56.460 all the signs, and I think he's got a video on YouTube that he did

00:02:59.520 that's like 45 minutes.

00:03:01.120 If you can go YouTube, type in Ray Dalio, solve for filter,

00:03:05.120 go to views on his channel, maybe just go to his channel.

00:03:08.300 This video's got 50 million views, and it's not like it's a short video.

00:03:13.160 Go to his channel right there, Principles by Ray Dalio, if you can.

00:03:16.440 Go to videos and then go to popular, please.

00:03:20.060 Where is that at? 0.98

00:03:21.060 Holy shit. 0.98

00:03:22.480 What does it say? 0.99

00:03:23.800 409 million views.

00:03:24.960 Second one, 202 million views, right?

00:03:27.260 These are not small numbers.

00:03:28.580 These are ridiculous numbers to get.

00:03:30.740 He believes a possible depression-type moment is around the corner.

00:03:36.260 Do you agree with him?

00:03:37.880 Well, I agree with him that that's not exactly what he believes.

00:03:40.720 what he believes is there is a pattern that has happened throughout human history and he studied

00:03:45.540 more than 500 years of history to see what has that pattern been and the pattern is how countries

00:03:50.680 grow just like a kid grows we have different stages look if you're a toddler you're going

00:03:55.040 to get in more trouble than if you're just an infant right because you can do different things

00:03:58.320 teenager goes like crazy you mature you get a little older you get a little older you make

00:04:02.840 different types of things you age you behave differently in each stage well so do countries

00:04:07.380 And so there is a pattern that happens

00:04:09.120 that when a country gets too much debt,

00:04:11.700 when a country gets where people expect too much

00:04:14.200 without working very hard,

00:04:15.680 and you can look all the way back to Roman times,

00:04:17.580 you can look at what's happened to the British Empire,

00:04:20.540 there is a period of time

00:04:21.480 in which someone else becomes the challenger. 0.91

00:04:23.960 And right now, China is that challenger for us by far.

00:04:26.800 When that occurs, you have some conflict

00:04:29.440 and the conflict will often happen even more so

00:04:32.080 if there's conflict within the country as well.

00:04:34.380 So we not only have debt, we have several of these elements.

00:04:36.560 We have internal conflict in our country, where really we've used social media to a great extent, and other actors outside of us have actually augmented this to create more conflict internally.

00:04:47.120 That makes you weaker, right?

00:04:48.820 We're all spending money all around the world on different wars.

00:04:51.360 China is keeping everything central and playing Go.

00:04:54.300 We're playing chess.

00:04:55.440 If you don't understand the difference, Go is a million times more complex.

00:04:58.920 But Go is much slower.

00:05:00.420 You're gradually, before somebody knows it, taking over their territory.

00:05:03.880 You're not going straight into war.

00:05:05.480 It's kind of like the art of art of war.

00:05:07.540 So we're in a place right now where we have to cut back on our expenses, but no one's

00:05:12.460 doing it.

00:05:12.880 Neither party's doing it.

00:05:14.140 And so he's raised the flag saying we can't have more.

00:05:17.700 We're going to have a trillion dollars worth of debt that we're the interest we're paying

00:05:21.360 this year.

00:05:21.760 Well, I'm going to answer the question is that nobody wants to address that issue because

00:05:25.320 it's certainly not popular and politicians forever have not wanted to do it because it

00:05:29.120 doesn't get them elected to do it.

00:05:31.100 But we're right now in August where they were projecting we were going to be at the end

00:05:34.700 of the year.

00:05:35.480 $40 trillion.

00:05:36.920 So he said on the brink, his words.

00:05:39.200 Yes.

00:05:39.460 I believe we are currently on the brink.

00:05:41.520 Yes.

00:05:41.860 I'm worried about something worse than a recession.

00:05:44.880 If this isn't handled well, worse than a recession, depression is kind of what he's talking about.

00:05:49.740 Now, he's also worried about civil strife.

00:05:52.760 He's worried about all those elements together.

00:05:54.280 So they're all legitimate.

00:05:55.580 I bring him out to talk.

00:05:56.740 He's a dear friend.

00:05:57.680 He sent me a note the other day.

00:05:58.880 He said, you know, he said there's a Chinese proverb that says a rabbit has many holes.

00:06:04.380 He said, how many other holes do you have in the world

00:06:06.360 and make sure you're in great shape?

00:06:07.980 So yes, I think it's a very serious issue.

00:06:11.080 But I think the only way to solve it

00:06:13.260 is by individuals actually pressing on their politicians.

00:06:16.520 But right now, we have politicians on both sides

00:06:19.180 that take advantage of whatever's going on in the environment

00:06:21.100 for more power.

00:06:21.940 It has nothing to do with what serves the American people.

00:06:24.680 And so it doesn't look good for us to solve it.

00:06:27.480 But here's what I know about human history.

00:06:29.500 Usually, it takes a crisis for us to wake up.

00:06:32.740 You look at a business, even in my own business careers,

00:06:34.820 I can say you look at Blockbuster. 0.98

00:06:37.000 Blockbuster, well, they weren't dumb people.

00:06:39.140 How did they go out of business? 0.90

00:06:40.640 They could have bought Netflix for $50 million.

00:06:42.900 They go, ah, we need them.

00:06:45.000 Everything was going so well for so long

00:06:47.460 that all of a sudden it didn't do well.

00:06:49.620 They did not recover.

00:06:50.780 Other companies found a way to recover.

00:06:53.180 They saw what was happening, the crisis happened,

00:06:55.180 and it made them come up with a new way to do things.

00:06:57.580 So I think crisis creates breakthroughs.

00:06:59.720 Some of those breakthroughs are painful.

00:07:01.380 some of those breakthroughs are going to be very, very,

00:07:03.240 they're going to make a better life for all of us.

00:07:04.980 We do have some capacity to deal with that debt

00:07:07.200 by becoming more productive, and he talks about that.

00:07:09.680 AI is one of that possibilities,

00:07:11.680 but we're not getting the AI to produce the level of result yet

00:07:15.240 that gives us that massive jump in productivity

00:07:17.720 because you've got to look at your assets and your liabilities.

00:07:20.200 If you talk to people that look at this country and say,

00:07:23.060 what are all our resources?

00:07:24.780 That includes all of our resources below the ground,

00:07:27.020 everything that we have.

00:07:28.080 the ratio of debt compared to our real full resources is something that's completely manageable

00:07:33.460 in the minds of those people but are we coming to a place where this is gonna people are gonna

00:07:38.780 have to have a reckoning i believe the answer is absolutely yes i wonder who's gonna take the lead

00:07:42.560 on this because you're right you can't win an election by hey we're gonna cut the debt during

00:07:45.960 my term i'm gonna make sure we're gonna cut some entitlement programs less spending on military

00:07:50.580 less spending on this i don't want this guy to be elected it's gonna be such easy fear porn coming

00:07:54.740 against this guy so it's almost as if supreme i don't even know how you put it through supreme

00:07:59.220 someone needs to say hey we're the board of america you can't be doing it's going to be a

00:08:04.180 crisis that does so i mean people will say it's a crisis for people to be burning type of thing

00:08:08.200 like when people overuse a drug and that's what we've been doing with capital to a certain extent

00:08:11.840 right and they overused or we've been spending that's been our drug we are bloated what happens

00:08:16.120 to a point there's a point when you keep trying to get more in you get less of a high and then

00:08:20.320 there's a point where you finally hit a crisis and you either die out of that crisis or you

00:08:24.320 transform. I think we're going to have a crisis. There's no question about it. And the way I love

00:08:28.380 what you guys said, which is very important is the eight, eight to 12 uncorrelated investments

00:08:34.820 to make sure, even if it happens, you know, there's going to be certain things that are going

00:08:40.640 to perform well during that season. But if you're a hundred percent, just in one area, like when you

00:08:44.780 You put hold on S&P 500 or sell?

00:08:47.340 I put sell.

00:08:48.220 You put sell.

00:08:48.960 So if you're only in S&P 500, you know, back in the days they used to say,

00:08:51.940 well, just put your money in an investment company, Active America,

00:08:54.460 with American funds or go to T. Rowe Price or all this other stuff.

00:08:57.840 Those days are behind us. 0.99

00:08:59.900 So shit, okay, so maybe let me. 0.99

00:09:01.560 But you're not trying to time the market. 1.00

00:09:02.680 No, I'm not trying to time the market.

00:09:03.660 I can't do that.

00:09:04.400 Nobody does that.

00:09:04.960 Nobody does that.

00:09:05.640 Okay, so give me the hedge.

00:09:07.240 Would your hedge against a massive crisis that could be a 40% type of a correction that happens?

00:09:14.240 Ray's hedge is in Money Master the Game, and it basically is what we're doing, which is he calls it the all-weather portfolio.

00:09:20.740 And he's figured out, for example, and this is somewhat complex, I'll make it simple.

00:09:24.180 When people think about stocks and bonds, and they go, I'm 50-50, I'm split the difference.

00:09:29.320 You're not 50-50, because stocks are three times more volatile than bonds.

00:09:33.720 So the idea of a 60-40, 50-50 is based on an illusion, based on the level of risk.

00:09:39.520 It's not that.

00:09:40.400 That's why people get a result that they're really unhappy with.

00:09:43.340 So he has laid out, and I've laid out in my book, the exact balance of how to put yourself in so if one thing goes up, the other one's down, vice versa, so that you end up with a balanced portfolio that isn't the most aggressive thing that'll give you the highest returns, but it'll protect you in all weather, any season, any environment you're in.

00:10:01.320 He's the master of that.

00:10:02.740 And what we did is we took that exact same concept, which for all of those that are in the financial industry know that Markowitz won the Nobel Prize for modern portfolio theory.

00:10:10.940 What Ray did, such a great service, is he made that actually understandable for a whole lot of people.

00:10:15.400 And what we did is we took the all-weather concept and we applied it to the true less correlated assets that are the private markets.

00:10:23.460 So when you have private market assets that definitely have less correlation and you combine them with the overall philosophy of the all-weather portfolio,

00:10:30.980 that's how you get to what we refer to as the holy grail of investing.

00:10:34.220 That is what ultimately allows people to ride through that.

00:10:36.600 I do want to come back to one thing you said.

00:10:38.180 there is actually a solution that doesn't require a crisis.

00:10:40.960 It's not very popular, but it is a reality that the American people do have the power

00:10:46.000 to actually fix the debt problem themselves without worrying about politicians.

00:10:50.560 And that is a constitutional convention where they say we're going to pass a balanced budget amendment.

00:10:56.040 Now, there's a lot of pain that comes with that, and there's a lot of hurdles to do that,

00:10:59.960 but that actually is within the Constitution.

00:11:02.360 The rights of the American people, if they stand up or unified,

00:11:05.980 then they absolutely can make a difference but i don't know if that's going to happen in my lifetime

00:11:11.060 or not and we have to prepare the investments in case it doesn't and we want to have that all

00:11:16.560 weather portfolio using the best of the public markets and the best of the private markets and

00:11:20.920 every investor and by the way if you're watching this right now and you're part of the camp that's

00:11:24.040 like oh my god that's why i'm so scared and and that's why i'm just not going to get into the

00:11:28.680 market because what if it does happen well if you don't and it does happen and the next five ten

00:11:33.860 years the market goes you missed out on so much you know the whole thing of if you go back and

00:11:38.800 you know 20 years and you miss the six best days that's right the difference between the amount of

00:11:44.820 money you would lose it's in the if depending on how much money you you lose so much money in return

00:11:50.180 for it to be fear-based and by the way the best days are usually within two weeks of the worst

00:11:54.760 days if you take a look at history and people are panicked and they stay out of it that's also why

00:11:58.960 having assets and something that aren't quite as liquid where you've got people why has private

00:12:04.100 equity done so well when the stock market they don't drop as much in the return faster how is

00:12:08.360 that because they don't have to sell when everybody's going crazy they just like as if

00:12:12.500 you and your own real estate they own a business they don't even have a choice you got to stay

00:12:16.340 locked in got cash flow we don't have to do anything we keep running the business now maybe

00:12:20.400 we buy during that time but we sell when the market goes higher again and that's why they're

00:12:24.320 able to produce these magnitudes of wealth look if you look at the fortune you know 400 and say

00:12:28.780 who are the people who are the wealthiest in the country?

00:12:31.400 What is the industry they're in?

00:12:33.180 Most people say tech, completely wrong.

00:12:35.400 Real estate, completely wrong.

00:12:36.540 Medical, wrong.

00:12:38.280 And by the way, it is not hedge funds

00:12:40.540 because they come and go.

00:12:41.660 It's private equity.

00:12:42.760 Because these guys are not trying to time something.

00:12:45.880 They're buying an asset.

00:12:46.940 Same thing you and I do in a business, right?

00:12:48.180 You and I have done this many times.

00:12:49.620 Get a business and what do we do?

00:12:51.140 Add massive value.

00:12:52.860 Transform the team.

00:12:53.720 Bring a new CEO.

00:12:54.580 Bring in the AI.

00:12:55.600 Change the marketing.

00:12:56.260 grow that business and sell it for a multiple to another business or take it public that's what

00:13:01.580 they do it's a very different form it's not like the old days where they took something divided up

00:13:05.580 and sold off all the pieces and put it all in debt those days are over for the most part today

00:13:09.940 your uncle dale is the undisputed king of hot takes buffalo they're a lock because his barber

00:13:15.220 said so don't listen to dale go with the score bet breaking news live odds and real-time stats

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Valuetainment - September 25, 2026

＂Worse Than a Recession＂ - Tony Robbins Breaks Down Ray Dalio's Warning on U.S. Debt

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