Valuetainment - April 22, 2025


＂Worst April Since The Great Depression＂ – Trump’s China Trade War Triggers MASSIVE Market MELTDOWN


Episode Stats

Length

10 minutes

Words per Minute

179.10448

Word Count

1,808

Sentence Count

155

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary

JPMorgan Chase details how they think Trump's trade war will play out and what investors should do in the event of a full recession. The Dow is now headed for the worst April in 100 years as investors send a no confidence signal to the market.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Right now, a lot of people are concerned with what's going on.
00:00:03.060 Yesterday, the market had another, what is it, 2.5%, 3% correction,
00:00:07.280 give or take, whatever the number was.
00:00:09.480 Here, JPMorgan Chase details exactly how they think
00:00:13.620 Trump's trade war will play out and what investors should do.
00:00:18.080 Okay, so let's see what the story from Insider is saying
00:00:21.540 in regards to Chase's predictions with Trump's tariffs.
00:00:26.300 Okay, so JPMorgan Chase predicts Trump's tariffs will lead to some deals
00:00:32.960 with trade partners with the effective tax rate rising to 10% to 20%
00:00:38.240 compared to 2% earlier this year.
00:00:41.500 The firm noted this represents a meaningful increase in imports duties
00:00:46.560 but lands within Wall Street estimates pre-liberation day,
00:00:51.220 expecting economic growth to slow unemployment and inflation to rise,
00:00:54.220 but the U.S. to avoid a full recession.
00:00:56.960 The bank recommends structured notes for investors stating
00:00:59.960 they can simultaneously provide defensive exposure to stocks
00:01:03.980 while delivering income through options premiums.
00:01:07.280 Upside, offering a strategy to navigate the tariff-included market uncertainty.
00:01:12.880 JPMorgan Chase advises incorporating hedge funds into diversified portfolios,
00:01:17.160 noting that volatility will allow hedge funds to exploit market mispricings
00:01:21.560 and relative value play across asset classes.
00:01:25.500 Tom?
00:01:26.220 Well, Business Insider is covering JPMorgan,
00:01:29.480 and JPMorgan had a big letter that came out a week and a half ago,
00:01:33.720 and one of the things that people noted in there
00:01:36.420 is they seem to be having or trying to have like a calming effect on investors.
00:01:42.520 Like they're saying, hey, we think the tax rate will be 10% to 20%
00:01:46.320 of some of these tariffs compared to 2%,
00:01:49.060 which is what we estimated pre-liberation day.
00:01:52.300 So what they're trying to say, Vinny, is, hey, what we said before liberation day
00:01:56.940 when the markets are going crazy and that was April 2nd,
00:01:59.540 hey, it's happening.
00:02:00.580 It's happening about that way.
00:02:02.140 So they're trying to have a calming effect,
00:02:04.060 and then what they're mentioning to people is, you know, structured notes.
00:02:08.880 And I won't go into deep detail.
00:02:10.480 Adam could probably talk about it too.
00:02:11.620 But a structured note is basically an investment vehicle
00:02:16.100 that allows you a little bit of downside protection
00:02:18.940 and a little bit of upside protection,
00:02:20.740 and you get a little coupon in there.
00:02:22.600 So what they're saying is there are other investment products
00:02:25.620 that are designed for times when the markets
00:02:29.360 and the financial instruments are volatile.
00:02:32.700 And I felt like, Pat, that what Business Insider was covering,
00:02:36.820 but they missed the headline.
00:02:38.160 I think they blew the headline.
00:02:39.400 It would be J.P. Morgan recommends calm
00:02:43.300 and consider alternative investments
00:02:46.860 as the tariff situation, trade war, plays out,
00:02:51.640 and we think it's going to land 10% to 20% tax on certain goods,
00:02:56.780 which is what we said before liberation day.
00:02:59.200 And I think they missed the headline
00:03:00.200 because I think that's what J.P. Morgan is.
00:03:01.820 That's exactly what they're saying here.
00:03:03.640 And, oh, by the way, call J.P. Morgan
00:03:05.340 because we can help you buy some of these things.
00:03:07.260 Operators are standing by.
00:03:08.380 Adam.
00:03:09.460 I guess, you know, for those of us that support Trump,
00:03:13.280 you know, many of us in this room,
00:03:14.600 including myself who voted for Trump,
00:03:17.300 at what point are we going to sound the alarm and say,
00:03:19.540 I don't know, is this actually working out?
00:03:23.260 I think we all understand the need for tariffs.
00:03:25.500 I think we all understand the need for taking on China.
00:03:28.200 I think we all understand the need for not kicking the can down the road.
00:03:31.700 But at the same time, when are we going to say,
00:03:33.740 is this actually working?
00:03:35.520 I think it's totally fair to ask questions.
00:03:38.120 You know, this is the Tom and I were talking about this earlier.
00:03:40.620 The number one story in the Wall Street Journal was the following.
00:03:44.240 The Dow is now headed for the worst April in 100 years
00:03:47.900 as investors send a no confidence signal to the market.
00:03:52.740 Now, we all said brace for impact.
00:03:55.360 We kind of have to have a short term,
00:03:57.260 take a couple of steps back in order to take 10 steps forward.
00:04:00.320 But the market is getting a little fearful.
00:04:04.380 You know, as Warren Buffett always says,
00:04:05.660 be fearful when people are greedy, be greedy when people are fearful.
00:04:07.740 I'm still investing in the market.
00:04:10.160 I'll always bet on America.
00:04:11.800 But if you go to the fear greed index,
00:04:13.440 which we tend to take a look at on this show,
00:04:16.220 right now people are in extreme fear.
00:04:19.960 So, you know, I don't want to be,
00:04:23.340 this is not a joke,
00:04:24.880 but on Liberation Day, April 2nd,
00:04:27.100 like the only thing that's been liberated so far
00:04:29.260 is trillions of dollars of wealth from the U.S. stock market.
00:04:32.100 And I don't want that, nor does anybody want that.
00:04:34.640 But since then, since it's potentially the worst April
00:04:37.240 in almost 100 years,
00:04:39.560 the Dow is down, stocks are down,
00:04:41.440 the S&P is down, the dollar is down,
00:04:43.100 U.S. treasuries and bonds are down,
00:04:45.200 consumer sentiment is down,
00:04:47.120 gold is up because that's obviously a store of value,
00:04:49.860 the VIX is up because that's volatility index,
00:04:52.560 and the fear and greed index is very fearful.
00:04:55.060 So at what point do we say,
00:04:57.280 look, Trump, we're rooting for you, bro.
00:04:59.480 But hopefully this thing turns around very quickly.
00:05:01.460 Is three months too, or like,
00:05:04.000 and I get it, Adam, trust me, I'm with you 100%,
00:05:06.040 but isn't this something that we have to go through
00:05:09.080 as a nation because of how horrible everything,
00:05:12.720 $37 trillion in debt, nobody respects it.
00:05:16.240 Just to answer this,
00:05:17.580 and then I'm going to let you do your thing.
00:05:19.220 The debt is obviously one thing,
00:05:20.620 but the tariffs are totally the other thing.
00:05:21.920 I understand, you know, what Doja's doing,
00:05:23.460 but if Trump, who is very mindful of his legacy
00:05:28.140 and how things are talked about in the news,
00:05:32.020 even if he doesn't trust the mainstream media,
00:05:34.460 this is the lowest S&P has ever been
00:05:38.320 since inauguration for any president in 100 years.
00:05:42.820 So this is not a good look for Trump.
00:05:45.000 We're all rooting for this to turn around.
00:05:47.000 But my simple question is,
00:05:48.440 at what point do we sound the alarm bells and say,
00:05:51.260 yeah, I don't know.
00:05:51.900 Let me tell you what I did yesterday.
00:05:53.000 So for me, yesterday, I looked into a couple things.
00:05:56.820 I went and looked into,
00:05:58.380 and it's so funny you were saying that.
00:05:59.880 You were kind of headed in that direction.
00:06:01.920 Rob, can you go pull up the following?
00:06:05.020 What are the longest any trade deals took?
00:06:11.020 Go on chat, GBT, and ask the question,
00:06:12.700 what is the longest any trade deal took?
00:06:16.100 Okay, if you pull it up, here's what you'll notice.
00:06:18.820 I want to find out what's the longest.
00:06:20.000 Okay.
00:06:20.900 Okay, the longest trade deals ever.
00:06:23.000 Doha Development Round, WTO, 23 years.
00:06:27.440 It's still going.
00:06:29.240 EU-Mercosur Agreement,
00:06:32.140 that's EU-Argentina-Brazil-Uruguay,
00:06:35.620 1999 to 2019.
00:06:38.120 Okay?
00:06:38.980 And it's still not ratified.
00:06:40.540 Okay?
00:06:41.100 Then you got TT,
00:06:42.880 Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,
00:06:45.180 13 years.
00:06:46.400 WTO General Agreement on Trade and Services,
00:06:49.640 10 years.
00:06:50.760 Canada-EU, 8 years.
00:06:53.160 And then I want to put the fastest.
00:06:55.220 And here's what I found with the fastest.
00:06:57.200 U.S.-Jordan FTA, 4 months.
00:06:59.760 This is in 2000.
00:07:01.500 U.S.-Australia FTA,
00:07:04.400 a trade agreement, fastest trade deals,
00:07:06.880 one year.
00:07:08.000 U.S.-MCA, 1 1⁄2 years.
00:07:10.480 That's U.S.-Mexico-Canada,
00:07:11.780 2017 to 2018.
00:07:13.480 U.S.-Singapore, 2 years.
00:07:15.280 So even the fourth fastest was two years.
00:07:19.760 Okay.
00:07:19.980 Okay?
00:07:20.600 By the way, people who are watching this,
00:07:23.340 they're shaking right now.
00:07:26.100 You know what I'm saying?
00:07:27.300 They're kind of like,
00:07:27.740 what are you talking about?
00:07:28.820 It's going to take this long to go through this?
00:07:32.540 That's what you think is going to take place?
00:07:34.660 Well, if this is truly something that's a dramatic,
00:07:42.040 dramatic change that we're going to be making,
00:07:45.120 you know, this is something we have to go through.
00:07:46.620 So now, I then looked up to see what companies were taking a hit.
00:07:52.180 Okay?
00:07:52.460 And there's two different types of deals.
00:07:54.000 Bilateral trade deals, two countries.
00:07:56.460 It takes one to five years.
00:07:58.360 Multilateral trade deals, three countries plus.
00:08:00.780 Takes five to ten years.
00:08:01.940 Okay?
00:08:02.600 But in the China trade deal,
00:08:04.940 there are a lot of companies right now in China
00:08:06.520 that are taking a hit.
00:08:08.100 Because to them, they're just shutting down.
00:08:09.740 They're telling employees,
00:08:10.460 go home, we have no work for you.
00:08:12.140 And this is real.
00:08:13.160 That's happening.
00:08:14.160 Okay?
00:08:14.360 And some parts of America as well,
00:08:16.740 some places are shutting down saying,
00:08:18.180 we don't have work for you.
00:08:19.540 We can't afford to have work for you.
00:08:21.960 So the pain is there as we're going through it.
00:08:24.620 Right?
00:08:25.160 You're hearing some small business owners talk about,
00:08:27.640 you know, I financed my mortgage.
00:08:30.240 You know, I've taken money out of my mortgage
00:08:31.840 to be able to do this.
00:08:32.820 And da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da.
00:08:33.900 All the stuff that they're talking about.
00:08:35.640 So the pain is definitely there.
00:08:37.740 I had no idea what was going to happen with the Yetis.
00:08:40.420 I had no idea.
00:08:41.480 When our team said, Pat, they're not going to last.
00:08:43.760 Because like this, all of it was gone.
00:08:46.400 Next thing you know, we were swamped by messages of Pat.
00:08:49.720 Can we get additional Yetis to do collaboration
00:08:51.980 with Value Tim and the Future Looks Bright?
00:08:54.300 The next one is here.
00:08:55.660 Now, keep in mind, these will go very fast.
00:08:57.560 Rob, if you want to play this clip,
00:08:59.040 we got different ones.
00:08:59.880 These are based on what many of you guys asked.
00:09:02.340 This is the Future Looks Bright Yeti,
00:09:03.860 whether it's a pink one, whether it's the red one,
00:09:06.820 whether it's the Tiffany blue or the white.
00:09:10.440 This one seems to be, it's sick.
00:09:13.260 It's absolutely sick.
00:09:15.040 Yeah, or even a smaller one that you got.
00:09:17.420 And on top of this, Rob, if you can also go to the website,
00:09:20.780 there are, I think it's 10 coolers that we got.
00:09:24.180 A couple people asked for coolers.
00:09:25.260 Only 10?
00:09:25.520 I just got 10 of them.
00:09:26.320 We're like, let's just see if there's a market for it.
00:09:27.800 I guarantee you that they'll be gone before we're out.
00:09:29.480 They asked.
00:09:30.340 I said, let's get 10 and let's see how it does.
00:09:32.420 Look at that.
00:09:32.760 Look how sick that is.
00:09:33.640 With Future Looks Bright right on top of it.
00:09:34.980 That's so badass.
00:09:35.440 So, vtmerch.com, go place your order.
00:09:38.020 Be the first to get it because these things will go very quickly.
00:09:42.880 Again, it is limited supply and they're absolutely sick.
00:09:47.980 When you go to work and you have this vitamin logo
00:09:49.700 and the future looks bright, it looks insane.
00:09:51.780 Okay, again, go to vtmerch.com, place your order
00:09:54.160 with the Yeti collaboration.
00:09:56.400 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this,
00:09:58.840 click here.
00:09:59.200 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.
00:10:05.440 We'll see you next time.