Valuetainment - ＂Worst April Since The Great Depression＂ – Trump’s China Trade War Triggers MASSIVE Market MELTDOWN

00:00:00.000 Right now, a lot of people are concerned with what's going on.

00:00:03.060 Yesterday, the market had another, what is it, 2.5%, 3% correction,

00:00:07.280 give or take, whatever the number was.

00:00:09.480 Here, JPMorgan Chase details exactly how they think

00:00:13.620 Trump's trade war will play out and what investors should do.

00:00:18.080 Okay, so let's see what the story from Insider is saying

00:00:21.540 in regards to Chase's predictions with Trump's tariffs.

00:00:26.300 Okay, so JPMorgan Chase predicts Trump's tariffs will lead to some deals

00:00:32.960 with trade partners with the effective tax rate rising to 10% to 20%

00:00:38.240 compared to 2% earlier this year.

00:00:41.500 The firm noted this represents a meaningful increase in imports duties

00:00:46.560 but lands within Wall Street estimates pre-liberation day,

00:00:51.220 expecting economic growth to slow unemployment and inflation to rise,

00:00:54.220 but the U.S. to avoid a full recession.

00:00:56.960 The bank recommends structured notes for investors stating

00:00:59.960 they can simultaneously provide defensive exposure to stocks

00:01:03.980 while delivering income through options premiums.

00:01:07.280 Upside, offering a strategy to navigate the tariff-included market uncertainty.

00:01:12.880 JPMorgan Chase advises incorporating hedge funds into diversified portfolios,

00:01:17.160 noting that volatility will allow hedge funds to exploit market mispricings

00:01:21.560 and relative value play across asset classes.

00:01:25.500 Tom?

00:01:26.220 Well, Business Insider is covering JPMorgan,

00:01:29.480 and JPMorgan had a big letter that came out a week and a half ago,

00:01:33.720 and one of the things that people noted in there

00:01:36.420 is they seem to be having or trying to have like a calming effect on investors.

00:01:42.520 Like they're saying, hey, we think the tax rate will be 10% to 20%

00:01:46.320 of some of these tariffs compared to 2%,

00:01:49.060 which is what we estimated pre-liberation day.

00:01:52.300 So what they're trying to say, Vinny, is, hey, what we said before liberation day

00:01:56.940 when the markets are going crazy and that was April 2nd,

00:01:59.540 hey, it's happening.

00:02:00.580 It's happening about that way.

00:02:02.140 So they're trying to have a calming effect,

00:02:04.060 and then what they're mentioning to people is, you know, structured notes.

00:02:08.880 And I won't go into deep detail.

00:02:10.480 Adam could probably talk about it too.

00:02:11.620 But a structured note is basically an investment vehicle

00:02:16.100 that allows you a little bit of downside protection

00:02:18.940 and a little bit of upside protection,

00:02:20.740 and you get a little coupon in there.

00:02:22.600 So what they're saying is there are other investment products

00:02:25.620 that are designed for times when the markets

00:02:29.360 and the financial instruments are volatile.

00:02:32.700 And I felt like, Pat, that what Business Insider was covering,

00:02:36.820 but they missed the headline.

00:02:38.160 I think they blew the headline.

00:02:39.400 It would be J.P. Morgan recommends calm

00:02:43.300 and consider alternative investments

00:02:46.860 as the tariff situation, trade war, plays out,

00:02:51.640 and we think it's going to land 10% to 20% tax on certain goods,

00:02:56.780 which is what we said before liberation day.

00:02:59.200 And I think they missed the headline

00:03:00.200 because I think that's what J.P. Morgan is.

00:03:01.820 That's exactly what they're saying here.

00:03:03.640 And, oh, by the way, call J.P. Morgan

00:03:05.340 because we can help you buy some of these things.

00:03:07.260 Operators are standing by.

00:03:08.380 Adam.

00:03:09.460 I guess, you know, for those of us that support Trump,

00:03:13.280 you know, many of us in this room,

00:03:14.600 including myself who voted for Trump,

00:03:17.300 at what point are we going to sound the alarm and say,

00:03:19.540 I don't know, is this actually working out?

00:03:23.260 I think we all understand the need for tariffs.

00:03:25.500 I think we all understand the need for taking on China. 1.00

00:03:28.200 I think we all understand the need for not kicking the can down the road.

00:03:31.700 But at the same time, when are we going to say,

00:03:33.740 is this actually working?

00:03:35.520 I think it's totally fair to ask questions.

00:03:38.120 You know, this is the Tom and I were talking about this earlier.

00:03:40.620 The number one story in the Wall Street Journal was the following.

00:03:44.240 The Dow is now headed for the worst April in 100 years

00:03:47.900 as investors send a no confidence signal to the market.

00:03:52.740 Now, we all said brace for impact.

00:03:55.360 We kind of have to have a short term,

00:03:57.260 take a couple of steps back in order to take 10 steps forward.

00:04:00.320 But the market is getting a little fearful.

00:04:04.380 You know, as Warren Buffett always says,

00:04:05.660 be fearful when people are greedy, be greedy when people are fearful.

00:04:07.740 I'm still investing in the market.

00:04:10.160 I'll always bet on America. 0.82

00:04:11.800 But if you go to the fear greed index,

00:04:13.440 which we tend to take a look at on this show,

00:04:16.220 right now people are in extreme fear.

00:04:19.960 So, you know, I don't want to be,

00:04:23.340 this is not a joke,

00:04:24.880 but on Liberation Day, April 2nd,

00:04:27.100 like the only thing that's been liberated so far

00:04:29.260 is trillions of dollars of wealth from the U.S. stock market.

00:04:32.100 And I don't want that, nor does anybody want that.

00:04:34.640 But since then, since it's potentially the worst April

00:04:37.240 in almost 100 years,

00:04:39.560 the Dow is down, stocks are down,

00:04:41.440 the S&P is down, the dollar is down,

00:04:43.100 U.S. treasuries and bonds are down,

00:04:45.200 consumer sentiment is down,

00:04:47.120 gold is up because that's obviously a store of value,

00:04:49.860 the VIX is up because that's volatility index,

00:04:52.560 and the fear and greed index is very fearful.

00:04:55.060 So at what point do we say,

00:04:57.280 look, Trump, we're rooting for you, bro.

00:04:59.480 But hopefully this thing turns around very quickly.

00:05:01.460 Is three months too, or like,

00:05:04.000 and I get it, Adam, trust me, I'm with you 100%,

00:05:06.040 but isn't this something that we have to go through

00:05:09.080 as a nation because of how horrible everything,

00:05:12.720 $37 trillion in debt, nobody respects it.

00:05:16.240 Just to answer this,

00:05:17.580 and then I'm going to let you do your thing.

00:05:19.220 The debt is obviously one thing,

00:05:20.620 but the tariffs are totally the other thing.

00:05:21.920 I understand, you know, what Doja's doing,

00:05:23.460 but if Trump, who is very mindful of his legacy

00:05:28.140 and how things are talked about in the news,

00:05:32.020 even if he doesn't trust the mainstream media,

00:05:34.460 this is the lowest S&P has ever been

00:05:38.320 since inauguration for any president in 100 years.

00:05:42.820 So this is not a good look for Trump.

00:05:45.000 We're all rooting for this to turn around.

00:05:47.000 But my simple question is,

00:05:48.440 at what point do we sound the alarm bells and say,

00:05:51.260 yeah, I don't know.

00:05:51.900 Let me tell you what I did yesterday.

00:05:53.000 So for me, yesterday, I looked into a couple things.

00:05:56.820 I went and looked into,

00:05:58.380 and it's so funny you were saying that.

00:05:59.880 You were kind of headed in that direction.

00:06:01.920 Rob, can you go pull up the following?

00:06:05.020 What are the longest any trade deals took?

00:06:11.020 Go on chat, GBT, and ask the question,

00:06:12.700 what is the longest any trade deal took?

00:06:16.100 Okay, if you pull it up, here's what you'll notice.

00:06:18.820 I want to find out what's the longest.

00:06:20.000 Okay.

00:06:20.900 Okay, the longest trade deals ever.

00:06:23.000 Doha Development Round, WTO, 23 years.

00:06:27.440 It's still going.

00:06:29.240 EU-Mercosur Agreement,

00:06:32.140 that's EU-Argentina-Brazil-Uruguay,

00:06:35.620 1999 to 2019.

00:06:38.120 Okay?

00:06:38.980 And it's still not ratified.

00:06:40.540 Okay?

00:06:41.100 Then you got TT,

00:06:42.880 Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,

00:06:45.180 13 years.

00:06:46.400 WTO General Agreement on Trade and Services,

00:06:49.640 10 years.

00:06:50.760 Canada-EU, 8 years.

00:06:53.160 And then I want to put the fastest.

00:06:55.220 And here's what I found with the fastest.

00:06:57.200 U.S.-Jordan FTA, 4 months.

00:06:59.760 This is in 2000.

00:07:01.500 U.S.-Australia FTA,

00:07:04.400 a trade agreement, fastest trade deals,

00:07:06.880 one year.

00:07:08.000 U.S.-MCA, 1 1⁄2 years.

00:07:10.480 That's U.S.-Mexico-Canada, 0.67

00:07:11.780 2017 to 2018.

00:07:13.480 U.S.-Singapore, 2 years.

00:07:15.280 So even the fourth fastest was two years.

00:07:19.760 Okay.

00:07:19.980 Okay?

00:07:20.600 By the way, people who are watching this,

00:07:23.340 they're shaking right now.

00:07:26.100 You know what I'm saying?

00:07:27.300 They're kind of like,

00:07:27.740 what are you talking about?

00:07:28.820 It's going to take this long to go through this?

00:07:32.540 That's what you think is going to take place?

00:07:34.660 Well, if this is truly something that's a dramatic,

00:07:42.040 dramatic change that we're going to be making,

00:07:45.120 you know, this is something we have to go through.

00:07:46.620 So now, I then looked up to see what companies were taking a hit.

00:07:52.180 Okay?

00:07:52.460 And there's two different types of deals.

00:07:54.000 Bilateral trade deals, two countries.

00:07:56.460 It takes one to five years.

00:07:58.360 Multilateral trade deals, three countries plus.

00:08:00.780 Takes five to ten years.

00:08:01.940 Okay?

00:08:02.600 But in the China trade deal,

00:08:04.940 there are a lot of companies right now in China

00:08:06.520 that are taking a hit.

00:08:08.100 Because to them, they're just shutting down.

00:08:09.740 They're telling employees,

00:08:10.460 go home, we have no work for you.

00:08:12.140 And this is real.

00:08:13.160 That's happening.

00:08:14.160 Okay?

00:08:14.360 And some parts of America as well,

00:08:16.740 some places are shutting down saying,

00:08:18.180 we don't have work for you.

00:08:19.540 We can't afford to have work for you.

00:08:21.960 So the pain is there as we're going through it.

00:08:24.620 Right?

00:08:25.160 You're hearing some small business owners talk about,

00:08:27.640 you know, I financed my mortgage.

00:08:30.240 You know, I've taken money out of my mortgage

00:08:31.840 to be able to do this.

00:08:32.820 And da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da.

00:08:33.900 All the stuff that they're talking about.

00:08:35.640 So the pain is definitely there.

00:08:37.740 I had no idea what was going to happen with the Yetis. 0.99

00:08:40.420 I had no idea.

00:08:41.480 When our team said, Pat, they're not going to last.

00:08:43.760 Because like this, all of it was gone.

00:08:46.400 Next thing you know, we were swamped by messages of Pat.

00:08:49.720 Can we get additional Yetis to do collaboration 0.94

00:08:51.980 with Value Tim and the Future Looks Bright?

00:08:54.300 The next one is here.

00:08:55.660 Now, keep in mind, these will go very fast.

00:08:57.560 Rob, if you want to play this clip,

00:08:59.040 we got different ones.

00:08:59.880 These are based on what many of you guys asked.

00:09:02.340 This is the Future Looks Bright Yeti,

00:09:03.860 whether it's a pink one, whether it's the red one,

00:09:06.820 whether it's the Tiffany blue or the white.

00:09:10.440 This one seems to be, it's sick.

00:09:13.260 It's absolutely sick.

00:09:15.040 Yeah, or even a smaller one that you got.

00:09:17.420 And on top of this, Rob, if you can also go to the website,

00:09:20.780 there are, I think it's 10 coolers that we got.

00:09:24.180 A couple people asked for coolers.

00:09:25.260 Only 10?

00:09:25.520 I just got 10 of them.

00:09:26.320 We're like, let's just see if there's a market for it.

00:09:27.800 I guarantee you that they'll be gone before we're out.

00:09:29.480 They asked.

00:09:30.340 I said, let's get 10 and let's see how it does.

00:09:32.420 Look at that.

00:09:32.760 Look how sick that is.

00:09:33.640 With Future Looks Bright right on top of it.

00:09:34.980 That's so badass.

00:09:35.440 So, vtmerch.com, go place your order.

00:09:38.020 Be the first to get it because these things will go very quickly.

00:09:42.880 Again, it is limited supply and they're absolutely sick.

00:09:47.980 When you go to work and you have this vitamin logo

00:09:49.700 and the future looks bright, it looks insane.

00:09:51.780 Okay, again, go to vtmerch.com, place your order

00:09:54.160 with the Yeti collaboration.

00:09:56.400 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this,

00:09:58.840 click here.

00:09:59.200 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

00:10:05.440 We'll see you next time.

Valuetainment - April 22, 2025

＂Worst April Since The Great Depression＂ – Trump’s China Trade War Triggers MASSIVE Market MELTDOWN

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