In this episode, Clay Travis and Sexton are joined by Stephen Yates, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former White House National Security Adviser, to discuss whether the United States will go to war with Iran.
00:00:31.240And the reason we're asking is because, as we know, there's sort of a dual-track situation playing out.
00:00:38.460On the one hand, there's negotiations, I think, in Geneva, sounds right, over Iran's nuclear program that the administration is involved in.
00:00:46.640And then there's also a buildup, a substantial buildup of military assets, aerial assets, specifically F-35s, F-22s in the Mideast, prepared for what could be a sustained aerial campaign against Iran.
00:01:07.260Well, Buck, I think that the president and his team are doing far more than any of its predecessors to kind of increase the chances of a negotiated settlement of sorts.
00:01:20.600It's very, very difficult to see there being any security from the nuclear program under the current regime.
00:01:27.040That's why the president says that if the regime were to change, that might be better.
00:02:13.400I mean, I think that is kind of where we dive into next because the understanding that we had, and I think it was the right decision on the first strike,
00:02:22.340was this is directly attributed to trying to eliminate Iran's nuclear arsenal, right, or their ability to develop a nuclear arsenal.
00:02:34.320Are we trying to replace the Ayatollah with this strike?
00:02:38.020Are we still going after nuclear weapons?
00:02:40.420I think this needs to be a huge part of the discussion in general is what is the strategic goal here?
00:02:48.760And how do you think the administration goes about making that choice?
00:02:54.060Well, I completely agree that it's necessary.
00:02:57.480We've fought off the ghosts of Iraq in many, many different ways.
00:03:02.900But that idea of making clear what the strategic objective is and what America's role is relative to other countries' role, very, very clear.
00:03:11.280I think that the targets that they would hit would look more military, so it would be nuclear, but also some of the ballistic missile and other capabilities to demonstrate that we can do this and there's nothing they can do about it,
00:03:24.200and knock them back a little bit to maybe buy more time and see whether they sober up for real negotiations.
00:03:30.580There's, I think, this added layer of statements that were made about the atrocities that are committed by the regime, the human rights violations, and I have deep sympathy for that, but I don't think that is the proper use of the U.S. military.
00:03:43.700I think that's the area that has to be made much, much more clear.
00:03:48.100The strike had to be degrading the capabilities of the regime while they have maximum pressure to degrade the economic capabilities of the regime, and the rest of the world is going to have to step in and help handle some of the other elements of the political transformation, in my view.
00:04:03.080You know, Steve, yes, the ghosts of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars loom large in all these conversations, and I think that's a good thing, I mean, in terms of making sure that we don't get pulled into something,
00:04:18.820and I think Trump is very wary of getting pulled into something deeper and at much greater risk to us and to our people than we want to be.
00:04:28.000So, as part of that, one of the conversations that I think keeps coming up, and people have been asking me, so I want to pose this to you and get your take on it.
00:04:35.860In Venezuela, okay, we took Maduro out and, well, took him to a prison cell in New York, but there was a clear pathway of other people, and really much of the rest of the regime is in charge there now.
00:04:49.260So there's kind of an ongoing negotiation process about what will happen and how that country moves forward, but the U.S. clearly has a lot of leverage.
00:04:58.900Do we have any real sense as to if the mullahs fall, if they fall, who takes over?
00:05:06.580Buck, that is the most important issue that they have to work through, and I don't take it as a given that whatever the U.S. does in the near term is going to be about regime change.
00:05:17.700I think what they demonstrated in Venezuela is that a step along the way is that we are going to change maybe the nature of the current regime and renegotiate sort of the terms of trade and dealing with the United States and the world.
00:05:33.020And under these new terms, maybe we buy more time for a longer-term transition to whether it's an opposition or a reformed country.
00:05:41.760But in Venezuela, the opposition is not yet in charge.
00:05:44.880It may be in the not-too-distant future if there's an election.
00:05:49.300I mean, the debatification issue in Iraq, which you know as well as anybody, just is one of the biggest ghosts of what people think of as a failure in the Iraq strategy.
00:06:00.600Keeping some of those institutions in place so there isn't broader instability and mayhem across the region is one of the priorities they have to have.
00:06:09.540So I think there could be a move that gets at the top leadership, and there could be a change to someone else in the regime.
00:06:17.540Personally, I would love it if this regime went away.
00:06:20.740But I personally just think that the U.S. role is to strike hard the way no one else can, to contain fallout as best anyone can.
00:06:29.540But it's the Abraham Accords countries and others that really need to be managing more of how do we have an economic and political relationship that's different with Iran.
00:06:38.580We have a lot of Iranian listeners on this program.
00:06:41.900A couple of months ago, we opened up phone lines and said, hey, what kind of support is there in your social networks for Iranians in the United States for the royal family to be installed in some way as a holder of power that is a transition to potentially a new government?
00:07:01.320Steve, is that a crazy idea in your mind?
00:07:04.400Again, building on what we learned in Iraq, sweeping out one group and trying to replace another can be dangerous.
00:07:11.640But there is some form of nostalgic, positive reflection on the royal family, if only based on how awful things have been under the Mullahs.
00:07:22.640Well, I agree, and that could be a viable alternative.
00:07:26.500But I think one of the things we felt got stung in the Iraq situation was having a leader that comes into place that is just viably identified as the American choice.
00:07:38.600And for a lot of the world that suffers from pretty high dose TDS, if it's perceived as being Trump's choice, there could be a problem of trying to hold coalitions and investment and other security engagements that are necessary for that transition.
00:07:55.240I think that might explain why we have this muddled or middle ground approach in Venezuela, too.
00:08:00.480If the opposition was seen as chosen by the United States and our president, then there could be maybe grounds for greater resistance.
00:08:08.700So a more organic and sort of stepping stones across the river approach seems to be the way they've gone at that.
00:08:16.000That might be more what they try with Iran.
00:08:19.540But I do think that looking at viable alternatives to the theocratic regime, most of the diaspora agrees with that, which is a fancy way of saying the people who are Iranian that live overseas.
00:08:30.360And then I think there are also large parts of Persian culture that are not Islamist that could work with that kind of an approach.
00:08:39.700But it needs to be seen and protected as being the Iranian people's choice.
00:08:55.800And that's an area where I think, oddly, while people wouldn't attach smart power to the make America great again foreign policy, I think that we've used some very effective levers that are non-military.
00:09:11.300We've used our military to cut off the oil.
00:09:16.860The movement in Venezuela politically was tied very, very close to them.
00:09:20.060So in terms of political warfare, economic warfare and economic security, we've really maxed options.
00:09:26.180And so I think we've got the best shot we've had for this external pressure campaign to maybe give a different path forward.
00:09:34.160But what fascinates me is really in Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and maybe other places, we're really seeing a very sophisticated approach to easing these transitions without America going in to push it too far and have it blow up back on us.
00:09:51.040Buck asked a good question about Cuba, and I'm utterly fascinated about that.
00:10:00.260There's a big difference oftentimes between what is publicly said and what is privately said, particularly from the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia et al, that clearly have made the decision they don't like Iran and would like to see changes made there.
00:10:15.540Do they actually want the Ayatollah out, in your impression?
00:10:20.280This is the Saudi Arabia's, the Bahrain's, the UAE's are just kind of running all through all these different countries that are technically Muslim countries, but are not allied with Iran.
00:10:29.620Or do they deep down like the fact that the Ayatollah is such a disaster that they don't have to worry about Iran as a regional threat so long as he is there and therefore don't actually want him gone?
00:10:44.640Well, I think there is a pretty clear sense.
00:10:48.420And, you know, in our country, I don't think enough Americans appreciate the fact that the Iranian regime has threatened to kill our president more than once over the history of this dispute.
00:11:00.500I mean, just remember, presidents are human beings, but also you just can't allow that if you are a sovereign power and a global power.
00:11:07.980And these other regional allies, believe me, they have suffered under assassination attempts and other kinds of violence against them.
00:11:16.980They have have blood feud with the theocratic regime across the water from them in many cases, some across a border like Iran and Iraq.
00:11:25.800It's, I think, very, very clear to them that they would much prefer to have a reform-oriented government there, and they would invest heavily.
00:11:36.120And there is a path to peace and prosperity that way, but it's expanding the ethos of the Abraham Accords.
00:11:42.040And under the theocratic regime in Iran, that's not an option.
00:11:44.960They support the radical terrorists that attacked Israel and believe in river-to-the-sea mentality, and that is not compatible with our allies in the Gulf.
00:11:54.840Stephen, before we let you go, I'm sure you saw AOC showing up in Munich to show off her foreign policy skills.
00:12:06.660She was asked about this crazy thing that no one had ever heard of before, the China-Taiwan conflict, or the possibility of China-Taiwan open conflict.
00:12:16.180And her answer was hysterical, so we appreciate that the humorous component of this was covered.
00:12:21.660If you were to give AOC, if you were tutoring her on this issue, say, hey, here's what you should say, so you sound like you know what's really going on with China-Taiwan,
00:12:32.160what would be your 60-second or less answer to the question that she turned into, yeah, like, I mean, they have maps and stuff?
00:12:39.960Well, it was mind-blowing, and if I were her, I would not go to a security conference and try to do that as a social media influencer.
00:12:51.160You better just do a 10-second search of Grok, and probably AI could have given better talking points.
00:12:57.460And I'd say you begin with the basics, free people who are investing heavily in our country.
00:13:05.500We should be giving them the ability to defend themselves as much as humanly possible.
00:13:09.920And also, let's hold up some accountability and transparency with China.
00:13:14.160At the very least, stand with an ally like Japan, and let's see where we can go and avoid the conflict.
00:14:10.980And producer Allie heard me, and Buck heard me, trying to figure out, what should I wear?
00:14:15.820And one of the answers, even though Buck and I are not huge suit guys, is there's lots of awesome stuff with comfort in mind that Cozy Earth puts out there.
00:17:26.940But if it gets shut down under this FCC equal time doctrine, I would argue it's an even bigger bonus for him.
00:17:35.640Because most people would have never seen this but for the fact that Stephen Colbert went on and attacked his bosses for not letting him have on James Tallarico.
00:21:39.400And there's nothing that could have been more clear than this was an op.
00:21:44.680And, you know, you called it out right away.
00:21:46.280And I think it was definitely apparent to anyone seeing how this was going to go.
00:21:51.380But it reminds me of the old days with CNN and the Trump first term with Jim Acosta when it was, you know, oh, my gosh, like they're shutting down the First Amendment.
00:21:59.300Look at how mean they're being to journalists.
00:22:00.760There's nothing better for his career than when Trump would make fun of him.
00:22:03.360There's nothing better for a CNN anchor than when Trump would go after them because their audience loves to see that.
00:22:09.140There's nothing better for Don Lemon than getting arrested.
00:22:11.740As we said on this program, the idea that he was going to bear consequences was just not true.
00:22:17.500It's the best thing that ever happened to his career.
00:22:19.420And so this victim narrative that they create, it's all just self-serving nonsense, as we know.
00:22:28.520But the good news for everybody is James Tallarico is going to get smoked in the Senate race.
00:22:32.440I mean, he's not going to come close, I think.
00:22:45.000He married a woman whose family has money, and, you know, he wears jeans.
00:22:51.240And he's like, we're going to, like, take all your AR-15s, and, like, we're going to make a big pile of them and, like, light them on fire.
00:22:57.580And all the libs on the coast are like, he's amazing, and he wears Wrangler jeans and cowboy boots, so Texas will love him.
00:23:13.820Now, I do think the question here going forward is, I know they're going to toss to the curb.
00:23:22.740Colbert's show in May, I think, is over.
00:23:24.740And in the meantime, as we could well have expected, he's throwing as many fits as he can, kicking and screaming on the way out to his show ceasing to exist.
00:23:33.560And then guess what's going to happen, Buck?
00:23:35.400Spotify, or someone like Spotify, is going to give Stephen Colbert $100 million to do a podcast.
00:23:42.580And Stephen Colbert is not going to be a victim.
00:23:45.880And then every single left-wing legacy media outlet in the country is going to do a huge story about how Stephen Colbert was a victim.
00:23:53.660I can tell you exactly how this is going to play out.
00:23:56.320His podcast is going to be highly rated because they're going to promote it like crazy.
00:24:00.180And he's going to do basically the exact same show on podcast.
00:24:11.980I can tell you exactly how the next year of Stephen Colbert's life is going to play out.
00:24:16.900Which reminds me, they manufacture his popularity and they manufacture delusions, which is a fantastic book, Manufacturing Delusion, that all of you who have not already purchased your copy should go purchase a copy of.
00:24:29.560Because this first week, we have to be John Meacham's book.
00:24:32.640You know, Clay, I am getting John Meacham.
00:24:34.800For those of you who don't know, he's a presidential historian.
00:24:37.920You know, there's a lot of books about these presidents.
00:24:39.300But he became the go-to historian on Morning Joe alongside Beschloss to be like, Trump is Hitler and he's going to destroy America.
00:24:49.440I have people sending me, because our books came out on the same day, that if you go to, let's just say, a large brick-and-mortar retailer with many stores across the country in places, you will see that there will be like 15.
00:25:01.420There's a huge display of Meacham's book.
00:40:26.560And so they've got an organization called In the Black, which focuses on governments not overspending, that they help support.
00:40:33.960I'm going to be talking with them about it next week.
00:40:36.400But these guys are just, they're great American patriots who have built a business that is having a tremendous amount of success because they're trying to preserve family memories.
00:40:46.260They want you to be able to share your old VHS cassette tapes, your 8mm film reels, your old photos.
00:40:55.360Whatever it might be, what would happen?
00:40:58.020What would happen if, unfortunately, you had a flood or if your, let's say, your garage caught fire, something goes wrong, and all those old family memories, well, they might not survive the disaster.
00:41:09.140Or if you've got somebody who is your family member, elderly, and they're putting them in the garage or in the attic, and you just don't know where they are.
00:41:18.160They can get lost in transition from a move, everything else.
00:41:21.680What if you digitized them once and for all to make sure all those great family memories are shareable with the kids and the grandkids?
00:43:56.460That was yesterday in the White House as President Trump honored black history and actually spent a decent amount of time, I believe, based on the clips that I saw, also talking about the Reverend Jesse Jackson, who he got along with.
00:44:09.680Trump did quite well and issued a statement that I thought was very kind on the passing at 84 years old of Jesse Jackson.
00:44:22.100One other good bit of news here as we finish the hour, since I'm trying to look and make sure we got good news, 30-year mortgage rates are hitting four-year lows today, Buck.
00:44:32.660I don't know how much attention it's going to get.
00:44:35.480They're still high, right at 6% on a 30-year.
00:44:39.400And I know many of you out there have got 3%, 3.5%, 4% mortgages, and so you're not going to be moving.
00:44:47.620But these mortgage rates coming down to an era before they started to skyrocket because of Joe Biden's inflation,
00:44:56.220it is hugely important to the American economy because we have to get more houses on the market, pricing will be more reasonable, all those things.
00:45:08.020So many people are not willing to move because of the mortgages that they have.
00:45:13.020It's going to make a tremendous difference.
00:45:15.260We could be moving in that direction at some time this year.
00:45:19.220But mortgage rates 30 years have hit a four-year low, worth mentioning for people out there as the spring shopping season for homes gets closer and closer.
00:45:30.260I think there may be a little bit more thawing because so many people are just not willing to move based on the 15- and 30-year mortgage rates that they got.
00:45:38.680I know a bunch of you are nodding along right now because you're saying,
00:45:42.200hey, I can sell my home, but I'm going to have to pay way more in mortgage rates no matter where I move,
00:45:47.420and that is often true for a lot of people out there.
00:45:49.800So that is worth mentioning and is positive.