Verdict with Ted Cruz - March 05, 2026


Bonus： Daily Review with Clay and Buck - Mar 5 2026


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 2 minutes

Words per Minute

166.3112

Word Count

10,345

Sentence Count

735

Misogynist Sentences

15

Hate Speech Sentences

29


Summary

On today's show, Clay and Buck discuss the latest updates from the air campaign against Iran, including President Trump weighing in with his assessment of how this is going so far, concerns rising as the Strait of Hormuz has become a ghost town, not much shipping going through there because of concerns about Iranian reprisals, oil prices jumping a bit on that one, more on James Tallarico and the Texas Senate race, and much, much more.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.500 Guaranteed human.
00:00:04.420 Welcome, everybody, to the Thursday edition of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.
00:00:10.640 Great to be here with all of you across this great land of ours.
00:00:14.280 We have updates on the air campaign against Iran, the war from the sky.
00:00:20.280 Continuing on, President Trump weighing in with his assessment of how this is going so far.
00:00:26.660 Concerns rising as the Strait of Hormuz has become a bit of a ghost town.
00:00:34.860 Not a lot of shipping going through there because of concerns about Iranian reprisals.
00:00:39.740 Oil prices jumping a little bit.
00:00:42.440 Some are starting to hit the panicking button on that one.
00:00:45.840 We will look at the analysis and where things actually are and what is likely to happen.
00:00:50.640 More on that Texas Senate race.
00:00:52.220 More on James Tallarico.
00:00:54.180 And I have to say, some of the chatter online is, guys, we have to hold some of these clips until closer to the election because some of them are truly astonishing.
00:01:05.320 And the fact that Democrats believe that this is a person who will win a Senate seat in Texas, I wouldn't want this person in charge of the Mr. Softee stand on the corner.
00:01:17.800 However, this guy is a loon.
00:01:19.680 This guy is crazy.
00:01:21.560 But we'll get into it.
00:01:22.560 But he quotes the Bible.
00:01:24.220 So if you work for the New York Times, anybody who kind of sounds like this and quotes the Bible has to be a godly man.
00:01:30.540 And so he must know something, even though he thinks that Jesus, all about trans, all about transing the youth.
00:01:36.120 Big Jesus, huge into transing the kids, according to James Tallarico.
00:01:40.180 We'll talk more about this.
00:01:41.240 And also, I'm a little too excited about this, actually, but apparently it's not the first of its kind, but a rule, a rule for the skies.
00:01:53.900 It has nothing to do with our airworn Iran, a rule for the skies when it comes to air travel that is, I think, in defense of Western civilization itself.
00:02:04.680 I think, finally, the savages are on their back heels thanks to a United Airlines rule that if you'd, you know, Clay, I don't want to get into it right now because we have more important things, but this gets me very excited.
00:02:18.320 And you know what it has to do with headphone usage on planes.
00:02:23.900 The savages can no longer have their way with just playing their iPads and their phones with no headphones.
00:02:30.260 So we all have to hear whatever garbage they're watching or listening to.
00:02:35.460 It is.
00:02:38.980 There's a bunch.
00:02:39.920 We're going to have some fun and also talk about serious things that are going on right now.
00:02:44.120 I love the James Tallarico story because this thing is just an utter disaster.
00:02:49.640 We're going to go to Israel, by the way, at the bottom of this hour with Yael Eckstein and hear what it's like in Israel right now.
00:02:56.880 And then our buddy Ryan Gerdusky is going to be on with us to talk some of this Tallarico and decision making as it pertains to the Senate landscape as the primaries have started.
00:03:06.460 But, Buck, I think the biggest and most important thing about Iran right now, if you look at the overall trajectory of where we're headed, is what is the exit strategy for Iran in the context of to what extent are they going to reach a leader that we are okay with?
00:03:30.020 Because I would suggest, I'm curious if you would, how you would analyze this.
00:03:35.140 Iran's strategy right now, I think, is going to be, hey, we'll just take as many bombs as necessary.
00:03:41.560 And the president is not going to stay committed to this long range.
00:03:46.180 And all we've got to do is withstand four or five weeks of significant bombing, and then we'll stick our heads up, see who is still around, and we'll just elevate somebody.
00:03:59.740 I think this is what the government in power right now is thinking.
00:04:02.840 The next Ayatollah is not going to be a lot different than the past Ayatollah, and we will try to rebuild from the destruction that is there.
00:04:11.040 I think the question is, to what extent is the new leader signed off on by America, and what is the time frame?
00:04:19.500 Because I think the longer this goes on, the tougher it gets for Trump.
00:04:23.020 But the reality is, when we're bombing from a distance, I don't think it really impacts a lot of Americans in a very significant way.
00:04:31.680 Well, this is why I mentioned the oil prices situation.
00:04:36.520 The oil prices spike is something that, certainly if this continues on, and if it happens along the lines of what we saw with the Russia-Ukraine war,
00:04:46.240 where I think it got up to $120-something a barrel at one point because of concerns over access to fossil fuels, to natural gas and oil.
00:04:59.700 So that's something that they have to take into consideration here.
00:05:02.540 The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke point.
00:05:06.760 About 20% of the world's global oil supply does go through that strait, and there are currently hundreds of ships, tankers, etc., idling.
00:05:17.520 Not really sure where they're going and what they're going to do because they're not going to be able to enter or exit the strait under the current circumstance.
00:05:24.680 That has to change.
00:05:25.460 Trump, meanwhile, saying this has cut 14, things are going great from the aerial war front, even better than he expected them to.
00:05:33.980 Play 14.
00:05:34.960 We're doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly, I would say.
00:05:40.500 Somebody said, on a scale of 10, where would you rate it?
00:05:43.020 I said about a 15.
00:05:44.220 Their leadership is just rapidly going.
00:05:46.800 Everybody that seems to want to be a leader, they end up dead, and it's an amazing, amazing thing that's taking place.
00:05:58.500 And he's saying, on a scale of 10, I would rate it about 15.
00:06:03.960 Clay, Trump seems to be very pleased with how this is going so far, that we are in a position to essentially destroy all of the offensive capability.
00:06:14.820 One of the big parts of this is tracking and destroying what they call the missile cities.
00:06:20.200 Wall Street Journal had a big piece on this.
00:06:22.160 These underground bunkers, essentially, where they store a lot of missiles, and then they have these mobile missile launchers.
00:06:30.060 Those are like the first things that U.S. and Israeli planes are looking to pick off.
00:06:34.540 Not only are we picking them off the moment they move to try to fire, but also we're destroying those bunkers in place, caving them in.
00:06:42.100 And so, all of a sudden, thousands of missiles will no longer be accessible to the Iranian regime.
00:06:47.740 The military outgunning that we are seeing right now is, I think, far beyond what a lot of people would have expected.
00:06:55.700 I think that's completely right.
00:06:58.000 And, again, one of the things that is so interesting, and you know this because you're a military history person as well,
00:07:05.480 is conflict accelerates technological advance, and initially wars are fought on the technology of the past war.
00:07:14.900 Everybody says, hey, this would have beaten the past war, and then you start to see an evolution rapidly.
00:07:21.620 You've seen it with Ukraine and Russia.
00:07:23.220 I think there is an argument, and I'm not sure how long it's going to exist, but I think there's an argument that boots on the ground is not a requirement anymore like it would have been in the past
00:07:37.980 because you can find and track people through the technological sophistication and evolution that we have seen in a way that didn't exist in the past.
00:07:47.880 And let me hit you with this question, Buck, because I was thinking about it this morning as I was doing my prep.
00:07:52.760 When we did the first Gulf War, I think a lot of people thought, hey, we should have continued on.
00:07:59.380 This is the one in 1990-ish, and we could have taken out Saddam Hussein.
00:08:04.400 We didn't, and then we went back in in 2003 and all of the disaster that ensued from there.
00:08:10.380 In today's technology, we would have just been able to wipe out Saddam Hussein without ever having to have the mass troops in the same way.
00:08:21.580 And I wonder how that would have changed 1990 and 2003 if we had been able to decapitate Saddam Hussein like we did with the Ayatollah.
00:08:31.680 And I do think that President Trump, who just said to Axios, Khamenei's son is a lightweight.
00:08:41.660 There are reports that the Ayatollah's 40-some-odd young son is going to be elevated.
00:08:47.240 I have to be involved in the appointment.
00:08:50.960 President Trump to Axios, I have to be involved in the appointment.
00:08:55.520 So the current kid that they're trying to elevate, I say kid, he's in his 40s, according to Trump, is a lightweight.
00:09:03.060 And Trump says, I need to be involved in the choice that they make as to who the next leader is.
00:09:07.820 So I think what you're seeing is the White House sees this as a Venezuela-like situation.
00:09:16.620 Now, the wild card here is, is it possible that there could be people out there who are rising up inside of Iran?
00:09:27.280 You're skeptical on that, that it's more difficult without us being boots on the ground to actually have a regime change.
00:09:33.960 Well, I got to tell you, and we have so many veterans, GWAT veterans listening right now,
00:09:39.560 many of whom served tours of combat in Iraq, many of whom served multiple tours, spent years of their lives over there.
00:09:50.460 And you start talking about using the Kurds as the cleanup force for Iran, which is being reported all over the place.
00:09:56.680 Now, the White House has said, no, no, we're not confirming that.
00:09:59.500 They're not denying it.
00:10:00.260 They're not confirming it.
00:10:01.040 But everybody who remembers the rough days in Iraq knows that the Kurds, they have a utility.
00:10:09.820 They are good allies for what they are in the areas that are Kurdish.
00:10:15.500 But the moment that you start telling people who are non-Kurdish that the Kurdish overlords, so to speak, have arrived, you get big problems.
00:10:25.400 There's big problems in Iraq, and it could cause, I think, big problems in Iran.
00:10:30.200 And I think that's why the administration knows.
00:10:32.580 I don't think they're going to do that.
00:10:33.980 I think they'll want the Kurds to just do what they did in Iraq, stabilize the more Kurdish portions of Iran.
00:10:40.660 And the point here is, Clay, we've got to find somebody else that has some kind of federalist, unifying capability here to get them.
00:10:50.800 First of all, you have to oust the people who still have control of the guys with the guns, which has not happened yet.
00:10:56.680 And we've taken out the major military equipment.
00:10:59.440 But until people aren't afraid that men with masks and AK-47s will come in the middle of the night and execute them in front of their families for speaking out, this thing is a long way from over.
00:11:09.420 However, we have to get through that phase, which means we need somebody with ground strength of some level.
00:11:18.120 And then we have to have somebody who will oversee a transition to elections and a basically I think what they want is a constitutional monarchy.
00:11:26.320 Rather, I think that would be the best situation.
00:11:28.620 You bring back the Shah, you have a constitution, you have elections.
00:11:31.880 The Shah is kind of a figurehead for a period of time.
00:11:34.640 Maybe that's the way, but this is the big missing piece here.
00:11:38.420 I mean, I feel much better about what's going to happen in Venezuela, or I should say higher confidence level about what's going to happen in Venezuela over the next three years than Iran right now.
00:11:47.920 It's just an unknown.
00:11:49.840 I think all that is well said.
00:11:52.260 Here's one thing that I would say.
00:11:54.340 I think the way we could get out is we declare victory, we allow someone that we don't think is actually anywhere near as bad as the Ayatollah to come to power.
00:12:05.740 And here's the stick.
00:12:08.540 The carrot is, okay, you're the new ruler of Iran.
00:12:12.060 Here's the stick, Buck.
00:12:13.480 We have demonstrated that we can kill any leader of Iran basically whenever the president of the United States or Israel decides to do so.
00:12:23.200 And I would think that if you get a new ruler that the president is in some way in favor of, that in the back of their mind knowing, wait a minute, that could be me too, makes it far more likely that they are going to follow the direction of the president and I think to a large extent Marco Rubio.
00:12:44.500 And look, that's the deal that Delce Rodriguez has right now in Venezuela.
00:12:48.440 If you read what happened there, they said, hey, we took Maduro.
00:12:52.760 She was like, no way.
00:12:54.120 And they were like, here's a video of him.
00:12:55.880 He's in our possession.
00:12:57.480 You either are going to work with us or we're going to take you out and prosecute you too.
00:13:03.380 And I have to believe that those are the kind of conversations that are going to take place in Iran.
00:13:08.720 Now, in an ideal world, you would end up with a constitutional monarchy and you would have sane rulers and you would have a brand new regime that comes in and Iran would become a flourishing marketplace of ideas in a way that it was prior to the rise of the Islamic Republic.
00:13:25.920 That might be too optimistic.
00:13:28.520 So having a ruler that we know doesn't have the ability to get nuclear weapons is a supreme success.
00:13:36.700 We said yesterday, if we could go back in time and keep North Korea from having nuclear weapons, the world would be much safer.
00:13:43.040 Here we may well have done that for Iran.
00:13:46.280 And what I come back to is this is the antithesis of what most politicians do.
00:13:50.580 Most politicians just worry about the time when they're in office and then they leave big messes for the next politician to have to try to clean up.
00:13:59.500 Trump is making here, to his credit, a generational decision that he will not personally necessarily benefit from very much in the next two years and change that he has to be president of the United States.
00:14:14.060 And that is actually incredibly commendable.
00:14:16.660 Trump is trying to do a lot of things right now that I think are generational in nature that will not inure directly to his benefit.
00:14:25.580 In fact, if you look, as you mentioned, at the price of gas in the short term, it honestly has a political cost that is more substantial for him than the benefit that he will get out of it.
00:14:37.700 We shall see.
00:14:39.200 That's my biggest takeaway from all of this.
00:14:41.320 People that are saying it's great.
00:14:42.680 People that are saying it's terrible.
00:14:44.800 No one knows yet.
00:14:45.920 I have a lot of faith in Trump and his team, but it is faith.
00:14:49.820 It is not a done deal.
00:14:51.480 So let's see what they're able to pull off here.
00:14:55.300 They have just like with tariffs.
00:14:57.060 I said Trump has earned the right to have us say, all right, sir, see this through.
00:15:01.760 This is why we elected you.
00:15:03.680 All right.
00:15:03.820 If you took twenty thousand dollars from your savings account in 2006, exactly 20 years ago, and invested it in to gold, just gold, it would be worth about one hundred and sixty five thousand dollars today.
00:15:14.180 That's more than eight hundred percent increase over two decades.
00:15:17.720 Smart Americans have been diversifying a portion of their savings into precious metals like gold for years.
00:15:23.140 And you can, too, by the way, with global instability concerns about oil markets.
00:15:27.480 Guess what?
00:15:28.960 Gold tends to do well when the world gets worried.
00:15:32.460 So now might be a really good time to get some gold.
00:15:35.680 I mean, actual physical gold or Birch Gold Group can help you convert an existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in gold.
00:15:43.820 Just text my name Buck to 98 98 98 to receive your free info kit on gold.
00:15:48.600 No obligation.
00:15:49.620 Just useful information.
00:15:51.100 Text my name.
00:15:51.740 B-U-C-K to 98 98 98 today.
00:15:57.320 Making America great again isn't just one man.
00:16:00.780 It's many.
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00:16:43.420 Welcome in.
00:16:44.640 Hour number two.
00:16:45.600 Clay Travis, Buck Sexton's show.
00:16:48.320 We appreciate all of you hanging out with us.
00:16:50.620 We're going to talk with Ryan Gerdusky in the third hour.
00:16:53.420 We were just talking with Yael Eckstein in Israel in the first hour of the program.
00:16:59.980 Let's talk about a couple of things here, Buck, that I think are interesting on the American political front.
00:17:09.140 First of all, the fallout of what happened in the Texas primary on Tuesday has led to reports that President Trump is potentially going to endorse and that he is ready to have a nominee in the Senate in Texas.
00:17:29.740 What is that telling us about the landscape in general?
00:17:33.120 I think it is that President Trump is really seriously focused on preserving the majority in the Senate.
00:17:42.280 The House, I think, is going to be more challenging because there are a lot of different races to focus on.
00:17:50.660 In the Senate, we've got a 53-47 advantage for the Republicans right now.
00:17:56.120 Given that J.D. Vance breaks the ties, that means that Democrats would have to pick up four different seats.
00:18:03.320 And if you look at the way the landscape of the different states are setting up, Maine is going to be tough for Susan Collins.
00:18:12.500 That is a blue state that I know they break it up and that there is a red part of that blue state.
00:18:19.180 But Susan Collins seems to be almost the only Republican that can win in Maine right now.
00:18:25.100 You've got a really difficult race shaping up in North Carolina, open Senate seat.
00:18:30.020 Michael Watley is going to be going up against Roy Cooper.
00:18:33.200 Roy Cooper is a popular former governor who has been elected statewide before.
00:18:37.340 So that is going to be a tough battle.
00:18:41.340 And then you've got Georgia, which is probably the best opportunity of Republicans to pick off an existing seat where Ossoff is running.
00:18:50.260 But you start to run through all these different maps and it almost becomes impossible for Democrats to win control of the Senate if Texas is preserved.
00:19:02.060 And so I think President Trump is making a calculated decision about what exactly he wants to do to preserve that Senate majority.
00:19:12.400 And you say, OK, what's going on with that Senate majority?
00:19:14.940 I think there's a decent chance, Buck, that one of the older Supreme Court justices, maybe even more than one of the older Supreme Court justices, decides to step down.
00:19:24.840 Given the fact that we have a basic majority gets a Supreme Court justice life tenure, I don't know how long it's going to be until Republicans have control of the Senate and the presidency again might happen this year.
00:19:39.040 But you would like to have it happen for the next couple of years, given the ages that everybody is in the Senate right now.
00:19:45.900 So there's going to be a lot of focus on the House and we know what they will do.
00:19:49.640 They will impeach.
00:19:50.400 It will become difficult to get anything through Congress at all.
00:19:53.920 I would argue it's very difficult to get everything through Congress now.
00:19:57.380 But Ken Paxton, who we just reached out to to invite on the program, has just said he would drop out of the Senate race if the SAVE Act were passed and they ended the filibuster in order to do so.
00:20:12.600 I think this is an intriguing political situation that we're in because John Thune now, the leader of the Senate, is put on the hot seat a bit here because he knows that basically his preservation of a Senate majority is almost guaranteed if they pass the SAVE Act.
00:20:31.760 But that is the challenge that we face.
00:20:36.920 And again, we have an offer out to Paxton.
00:20:39.120 There have been reports that Trump is going to endorse Cornyn, the sitting incumbent.
00:20:44.260 One bit of update for all of you out there.
00:20:46.900 There is a live press conference update in Austin, Texas on the shooter that killed multiple people in an Austin nightclub bar shooting scene.
00:21:00.180 And so we were we are running on that and we will get you an update on that information.
00:21:06.480 Although, Buck, I think, as we said on the program, when you show up in a Iranian T-shirt, kind of a suggestion that maybe you're acting out as a basis of terrorism for that behavior.
00:21:19.920 So we will we will talk about all of that.
00:21:24.180 Now, what's your assessment here, Buck, as you analyze this again?
00:21:29.720 The Texas Senate to me, it's the the larger story here is President Trump sees that Texas Senate seat if it's in Republican hands.
00:21:38.100 The map just doesn't add up for for Democrats very easily.
00:21:43.640 Maybe you get Maine.
00:21:45.240 Maybe you get North Carolina.
00:21:46.820 You might be favored there.
00:21:48.220 But then you would have to flip Ohio.
00:21:50.220 You would have to flip Texas.
00:21:51.680 We just had Steve Dane step down in Montana, but Montana would be a tough flip.
00:21:56.660 And that presumes that you win the toss ups in Trump states, in Georgia, in Michigan, that kind of map.
00:22:04.020 I was out there, too, but seems difficult.
00:22:06.700 I think Trump feels if he has Texas in his back pocket that the Senate majority is confirmed.
00:22:12.160 And I think that's motivating a lot of his actions.
00:22:14.500 Yeah, I think that the Senate's looking good for Republicans overall.
00:22:19.620 I think that you are going to have a tougher time with the House.
00:22:24.640 And this is the conventional wisdom that everyone has on this, because it's probably going to be the case.
00:22:30.220 I would say James Tallarico.
00:22:34.340 Here he is.
00:22:35.240 This is cut seven.
00:22:36.620 He says they're going to call me a radical leftist and a fake Christian.
00:22:40.840 Maybe because you are, James.
00:22:42.700 But let's talk about this.
00:22:43.820 Play seven.
00:22:44.300 They're scared of the movement we are building.
00:22:47.040 They're going to throw everything they have at us.
00:22:49.400 They're going to call me a radical leftist.
00:22:51.720 They're going to call me a fake Christian.
00:22:54.260 They'll call our movement un-Texan, un-American.
00:22:57.680 They'll call us a threat.
00:22:59.460 The only truth is we are a threat.
00:23:02.220 We're a threat to their corrupt system.
00:23:05.780 Two thousand years ago, when the powerful few at the top hurt those at the bottom,
00:23:11.500 that barefoot rabbi didn't stay in his room and pray.
00:23:15.280 He walked into the seat of power and flipped over the tables of injustice.
00:23:21.240 To those who love this state, to those who love this country, to those who love our neighbors,
00:23:27.700 it's time to start flipping tables.
00:23:30.620 Oh, just comparing himself to Jesus.
00:23:32.860 This guy, very humble, very humble fellow.
00:23:35.300 James Tallarico, this tweet has been getting more attention.
00:23:37.980 This was him speaking, or rather tweeting, after the Ahmaud Arbery case.
00:23:46.900 He wrote, this was in 2020,
00:23:50.820 White skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus,
00:23:57.020 but we spread it wherever we go, through our words, our actions, and our systems.
00:24:02.480 We don't have to be showing symptoms like a white hood or a Confederate flag to be contagious.
00:24:09.720 Our inherent racism as white people, Clay, is contagious,
00:24:14.460 and we have to seek to contain that contagion by just having our white skin.
00:24:20.340 This guy doesn't think he's a leftist?
00:24:22.500 I really want to ask the question.
00:24:24.160 Between the, God is trans or non-binary, you got to trans the kids,
00:24:29.140 abortion is exactly what Jesus had in mind,
00:24:32.300 loves abortion, Jesus loves abortion, it's great to kill babies,
00:24:35.720 and white skin is a form of contagion that pollutes society everywhere it goes.
00:24:41.620 If these are all his positions, if he is not a leftist, who is a leftist?
00:24:48.200 I want to know, if he is not to the left of the Democrat Party, who is?
00:24:51.340 I'm just curious.
00:24:52.480 I'm going to say this, and some of you are going to say you can't be serious, Clay.
00:24:55.640 I'm serious.
00:24:56.120 I think he may be crazier than Jasmine Crockett.
00:24:59.200 Oh, no, I think so, too.
00:25:01.180 I think so, too.
00:25:02.160 It's possible that this guy is further left wing than Jasmine Crockett was,
00:25:08.460 and I think he's crazier.
00:25:10.020 I mean, he posted, did you see this?
00:25:11.720 I shared this.
00:25:13.620 In December of 2021, he said his favorite Christmas gift was a Dr. Fauci action figure,
00:25:20.740 and he said that everybody in Texas needed to make sure that they got their COVID shot
00:25:25.600 and had gotten their most recent round of boosters.
00:25:29.400 December of 21.
00:25:31.260 Yeah, that's, you know, December of 21 is a lot of people, you know, March, April, 2020,
00:25:36.820 you go back in time.
00:25:38.380 By May of 2020, somehow you and I were smart enough to be able to deduce everything that
00:25:43.260 had to do with COVID.
00:25:44.160 So I'm giving people passes in March and April of 2020 and kind of the confusion of the moment.
00:25:50.400 But by May of 2020, like the whole COVID game, the rig job should have been apparent if you
00:25:57.160 were paying attention.
00:25:58.400 December of 21, posting a Fauci action figure, you are a committed left winger.
00:26:04.980 And you mentioned this a little bit in the first hour, but I think Tallarico actually is
00:26:10.300 an interesting dynamic because it feels very much like Tim Walls.
00:26:17.640 This is people who are leftist, left-wing women largely, trying to pick guys that they think
00:26:27.040 will appeal to normal guys.
00:26:28.940 And failing miserably because they don't understand how to talk to normal dudes.
00:26:36.940 Remember when they try to call Tim Walls, Coach Walls, and they put him in the plaid shirt
00:26:42.720 and they gave him a gun and they sent him out and they said, look, he wears boots.
00:26:46.160 He's a totally normal guy.
00:26:47.720 And then totally normal guys watch Tim Walls and they said, this is not a totally normal
00:26:52.320 guy.
00:26:52.820 James Tallarico is a lesbian's idea of a white guy that will appeal to normal white guys and
00:27:01.360 normal men out there.
00:27:02.760 No, to Christians specifically.
00:27:05.340 Just because he does the, I talk about Jesus thing, he's going to appeal to anybody who believes
00:27:10.780 in Jesus.
00:27:11.780 This is the New York Times editorial board version of a white Christian guy from Texas who other
00:27:18.800 people who go to Christian churches are going to find common ground with.
00:27:25.320 It's absurd.
00:27:26.160 Again, they just have no idea.
00:27:28.040 It's like a different species to them.
00:27:30.180 It's like an alien life.
00:27:31.520 They're trying to translate a language that they don't really understand and find someone
00:27:37.680 who they think can speak to people that they recognize they have lost.
00:27:41.400 I just don't think there's going to be any ability here whatsoever to corral voters.
00:27:52.260 Now, on the Paxton front and the Cornyn front, I think this is a tactical decision from Trump
00:28:01.120 that he wants to allocate resources so that we can make a real run in Michigan.
00:28:07.820 He knows that Georgia is going to be pick up a bull.
00:28:11.980 He knows that Maine and North Carolina are going to be super difficult battlegrounds and
00:28:16.940 you got Ohio and Iowa and Texas and Montana and all these other different states and he's
00:28:23.280 trying to figure out how we can spend the least amount of money necessary in Texas to win
00:28:28.860 this race and I think Trump has been convinced that that is by him endorsing John Cornyn.
00:28:35.780 Now, Cornyn beat Paxton by a small margin of votes in the primary and I believe what happened
00:28:44.460 was the Cornyn people went back to Trump and they said Ken Paxton wasn't able to beat us
00:28:50.220 head-to-head in the Republican primary.
00:28:53.160 You have to get over 50% support in order to be the official nominee so we have the runoff
00:28:58.180 in late May and they are saying he's not going to be able to beat us in May either whether
00:29:04.780 you believe that or not and then there's going to be a hundred million dollars spent or more in
00:29:11.380 this additional primary potentially and then you're going to have to spend hundreds of millions
00:29:16.200 of dollars more if Paxton is the nominee in order to beat Tallarico.
00:29:21.420 Now, here's what I would say.
00:29:23.440 I think whoever the Republican nominee is is going to beat Tallarico.
00:29:26.960 I think they're going to raise a lot of money for him just like they did for Beto,
00:29:30.800 but I think this guy is actually a far less appealing version of Beto.
00:29:35.780 I think he's crazier.
00:29:37.360 I think he's got further left-wing opinions.
00:29:40.520 Just say it, Beto's a little more handsome.
00:29:42.680 Beto's a better speaker.
00:29:44.340 Beto's a better looking guy.
00:29:46.020 Better looking guy, you know.
00:29:47.860 Beto in those Wrangler jeans, a little more exciting to the ladies and some of the guys
00:29:52.640 than Tallarico is.
00:29:54.800 So, you know, we can just call it out.
00:29:56.500 We'll say it like it is.
00:29:58.200 But I think that this guy is, I think this guy is toast in the election.
00:30:03.440 I think there's no chance.
00:30:05.320 And now you should never say that, Texans, you need to show up, you need to vote,
00:30:08.280 you need to make sure that this doesn't end up happening.
00:30:10.960 But they're not even running a passable version of a Texas centrist in this campaign.
00:30:19.440 They're running an ardent leftist.
00:30:22.540 I mean, he is a leftist.
00:30:23.600 There's no way around that.
00:30:25.620 Just because you talk about God doesn't mean you aren't a leftist.
00:30:29.460 In fact, there are a lot, I can speak from the Catholic Church side of this,
00:30:32.480 there are a lot of commie Catholics running around, including in the clergy,
00:30:35.580 which is very disappointing.
00:30:37.240 Well, I think also you could see where Jasmine Crockett had a base.
00:30:41.480 Black female voters in particular were going to show up for her in a substantial way.
00:30:46.500 I'm not sure what James Tallarico's base is.
00:30:49.300 And so, again, I think either Paxton or Cornyn would win.
00:30:52.580 But I do believe that now that we're in sort of strategic season for analyzing,
00:30:58.340 there's been a lot of talk about the quality of Senate nominees in different states.
00:31:04.600 And we've talked about this before.
00:31:05.880 In Georgia, Republicans have lost three straight Senate races that they should have won.
00:31:12.220 So, just point blank, three straight Senate races in Georgia were all winnable.
00:31:17.480 Warnock and Ossoff are not great candidates.
00:31:20.140 And Georgia Republicans have not been able to get across the finish line because they haven't had good enough nominees.
00:31:25.140 Meanwhile, Brian Kemp wins by eight points.
00:31:27.900 Every other office in the state overwhelmingly comfortable wins.
00:31:32.460 We've got to get better nominees across the board.
00:31:37.180 And so, I think this is the strategic analysis.
00:31:39.900 We'll open up phone lines.
00:31:40.720 A lot of Texans will have strong thoughts on this.
00:31:42.860 We also have invited Paxton and Cornyn both on the program as this is playing out in real time.
00:31:49.540 But in the meantime, you heard us talk with Yael Eckstein just a little bit ago.
00:31:52.640 So, conflict in the Middle East is putting Israeli citizens in harm's way again.
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00:32:14.080 We need life-saving food, first aid, and emergency essentials.
00:32:17.900 The IFCJ is helping to ensure hospitals, emergency rooms, and shelters are stocked with critical medical supplies.
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00:32:33.380 To rush your gift, call 888-488-IFCJ.
00:32:38.080 That's 888-488-IFCJ.
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00:32:45.280 That's ifcj.org.
00:32:48.980 Stories of freedom.
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00:32:55.380 Each day, spend time with Clay and Buck.
00:32:58.320 Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:33:03.200 Welcome back in.
00:33:04.340 Clay Travis, Buck Sexton Show.
00:33:07.400 You know, Buck, there's a lot of good news out there.
00:33:10.340 And I don't think we discussed this on the program yet.
00:33:12.900 But I saw this and I thought to myself, you know what?
00:33:16.980 We should dive into this.
00:33:19.040 And I meant to mention it a day or so ago.
00:33:21.220 But your home state of Florida.
00:33:24.220 I know there's a lot of frustration out there.
00:33:26.220 People say, oh, you know, what's the impact?
00:33:29.040 Nothing ever changes.
00:33:30.480 It doesn't matter who wins races.
00:33:32.040 It's all going to turn into, I think, a – sometimes people just get so much negativity running.
00:33:43.680 And I do think this is important and worth breaking down.
00:33:49.320 Florida voter registration.
00:33:51.280 Did you see this?
00:33:52.180 This is from a guy named Michael Pruser who does the data on this.
00:33:56.040 Let me hit you with some numbers because I think Governor Ron DeSantis and a lot of the Republican Floridian establishment has not gotten enough attention.
00:34:06.340 And I do believe the story of Florida is occurring across many different states simultaneous.
00:34:12.800 According to the most recent numbers that came out, this is the beginning of March, so through the end of February, Republicans now have an advantage of nearly 1.5 million overall voters in the state.
00:34:29.060 That is 5.5 million registered Republicans in Florida.
00:34:35.000 There are now about 4.4 million registered Democrats.
00:34:39.500 Now, that's a pretty impressive overall outcome.
00:34:44.960 But what's interesting, Buck, is if you go back to just – let's see, just 2016, right as Trump was coming into office, right before DeSantis came into office, there were just 4.5 million registered Republicans and there were 4.9 million registered Democrats.
00:35:05.540 So Democrats have lost about 500,000 and Republicans have added roughly 1.9 million.
00:35:13.440 Palm Beach County, which used to be a bastion of the Democrat Party, is going to flip red very soon.
00:35:22.620 I believe that will leave only three counties, three or four counties total that even have a Democrat majority.
00:35:30.960 So if you're out there and you're frustrated, and I get it, and you say, hey, who gets elected doesn't matter, and I know there are some of you out there in the market because we hear from them all the time, Florida, I think, is an incredible story about what happens when there are good policies put in place, when there are smart, committed Republican leaders put in place, and when they execute.
00:35:55.100 And I would argue right now that Florida is the base of the Republican Party, and for those of you out there who can remember Florida as the ultimate swing state battleground in all of the nation, it's really kind of incredible to see, and sometimes we miss progress that is occurring because it's easier to focus on negative stories and it's easier to be upset on a day-to-day basis.
00:36:20.200 But Florida is one of the greatest success stories in Republican Party history if you look at what's happened over the last decade.
00:36:28.400 And you as a Floridian now, Buck, are part of that mass influx of people.
00:36:33.120 I actually think Florida is poised to become even more of a leader in Republican Party circles going forward.
00:36:41.340 It's really an incredible story, and I don't think it gets talked about enough in a positive way.
00:36:47.140 No, I think it's fantastic.
00:36:48.560 Obviously, I live here, and I'm so pleased to see how well everything is going, so the numbers speak for themselves.
00:36:58.220 Fortress Florida is stronger than ever.
00:37:01.020 Ron DeSantis, who has stepped away from the national spotlight a bit in the last couple of years, but he has done a phenomenal job as governor,
00:37:09.320 and I think there's still some very worthwhile stuff that he's trying to get through in his last year.
00:37:16.140 And it just shows you that you can have reasonable, competent people in charge of state government.
00:37:25.740 It is a thing that can happen, and it's a good thing when it happens.
00:37:29.980 It makes people safer.
00:37:30.960 It makes businesses more prosperous.
00:37:32.220 It makes your day-to-day life more efficient.
00:37:35.040 The streets are cleaner.
00:37:36.060 I mean, all these things that you'd like to think all government is doing at some level,
00:37:41.220 or rather all necessary government, is functioning in a way to make your life better,
00:37:44.940 or at least not make your life worse.
00:37:47.120 And unfortunately, in New York City, I experienced the other side of this.
00:37:50.220 So I know what it is like on both sides of this coin.
00:37:54.220 I know what it's like to be in a place, New York, where the people in charge are, in some cases,
00:38:01.000 ideologically dedicated to destroying your quality of life and taking from you
00:38:06.360 and blaming you for the problems that some of their policies are exacerbating.
00:38:12.020 And I've seen the other side of it where you are welcomed, and if you are law-abiding,
00:38:17.620 you have the benefit of law enforcement around you,
00:38:21.100 so therefore you get to lead a safer, more orderly, and more pleasant existence.
00:38:26.520 And that is what we have in Florida.
00:38:28.240 So, yeah, man, it's great.
00:38:30.480 And I just, the people that are still holding out in some of these other places who are,
00:38:34.860 I'm not talking about the Republicans who live in California.
00:38:36.940 I get it.
00:38:37.680 You've got family there.
00:38:38.480 You love your state.
00:38:39.240 It's a beautiful state.
00:38:39.940 You want to go.
00:38:40.800 I mean the Democrats who are still in these states who don't get it.
00:38:45.520 I don't understand what they don't get at this point.
00:38:48.120 Well, I do.
00:38:48.880 It's a delusion, like a manufactured delusion,
00:38:51.920 which is a fantastic book that all of you should get from the New York Times bestseller list last week.
00:38:56.640 I highly recommend it.
00:38:58.820 It is a spectacular book.
00:39:02.640 Thank you.
00:39:03.440 It sold many copies.
00:39:04.480 And I do believe that one of the big untold stories right now is Florida is an example of the census
00:39:15.720 and how the census is going to swing in a really transformative way for the map.
00:39:23.360 The map is not going to change until 2030.
00:39:25.700 But the legacy of COVID, when you look at what's happened with Texas, with Tennessee, with Florida,
00:39:32.220 there are a lot of other states to point to as well,
00:39:35.280 is Democrats' ability to win nationwide elections is going to be severely curtailed starting in 2030.
00:39:45.980 Now, 2028 is still going to be a battle that's fought on, frankly, a map that has shifted in Republican Party directions.
00:39:53.840 But all of this is going to be, I think, a super important story that is not getting enough attention.
00:40:02.820 And, Buck, this doesn't even take into account what I think the Supreme Court is going to do.
00:40:07.220 And, again, this is not being, I'm trying to be positive here because there's so many things that I think don't get enough attention.
00:40:12.520 I was thinking about the Florida numbers and the fact that people are voting with their feet because of the leadership of Ron DeSantis and others.
00:40:20.820 But also look at what the Supreme Court's likely to do when it comes to race-based congressional districts.
00:40:27.960 I don't think they're going to give their ruling in time to impact the 2026 midterm cycle
00:40:33.640 because I think they're going to say it's too political.
00:40:35.480 But they, I believe, are going to do away with race-based congressional districts.
00:40:41.540 Right now it is considered constitutional to say, hey, we're going to have a majority black district
00:40:47.600 and we'll draw that district so that it encompasses all these different interstates and neighborhoods.
00:40:53.500 And you look at some of the most gerrymandered communities out there,
00:40:57.980 many of them are race-based drawn districts for black voters.
00:41:02.700 The country has actually become so much more diverse with Hispanic and Asian and other people of different backgrounds
00:41:09.960 that this black-white dynamic and black-based districts I think are not going to be allowed.
00:41:14.860 And you say, okay, Clay, what's the impact of that going to be?
00:41:18.620 By 2028, that could swing 20 seats towards Republicans
00:41:25.580 because those districts being not able to be gerrymandered that way.
00:41:30.240 So if you think about that ruling, which I think is going to come down this summer,
00:41:34.900 and then you think about what's going to happen with the 2030 census,
00:41:39.200 and using Florida as an example of how population has shifted,
00:41:43.780 the map for 2030 and beyond is going to be massively in favor of red states.
00:41:50.960 And here's something else.
00:41:51.980 I think the acceleration of voters from blue states is going to move even faster
00:41:57.740 because if you look at the budgets of New York and California, for example,
00:42:03.080 they spend way more than a state like Florida or Texas, big states, would spend,
00:42:08.500 and they get far weaker results.
00:42:11.580 And I think that is all going to, again, this is big picture talking next five, six years.
00:42:17.560 All of that is going to, that transformation is going to occur even more rapidly.
00:42:22.220 So I understand a lot of people out there saying, and I get it because I'm impatient,
00:42:26.880 I want things to happen as quickly as they possibly can.
00:42:29.640 I don't think that we're talking enough about how much difference that's going to make
00:42:34.540 in the years ahead.
00:42:35.640 Now, should we still pass the SAVE Act and ensure that federal elections are reliable
00:42:41.940 and that we do something crazy like require somebody to show up with a photo ID in order to vote?
00:42:49.180 Yes, that is a non-negotiable to me.
00:42:52.920 It should happen.
00:42:53.980 And I understand how that can be frustrating when things like that aren't happening.
00:42:57.380 But I do think the larger trend lines here are not being talked about enough,
00:43:02.640 and they are incredibly favorable.
00:43:05.040 And this is what good governance does.
00:43:07.220 People do notice, and they vote with their feet.
00:43:11.260 Indeed.
00:43:12.420 That is excellent.
00:43:13.700 Clay's good at the whole stump speech thing, everybody.
00:43:16.060 You think he's getting any ideas?
00:43:17.960 Could be kind of a wide open field in 2028.
00:43:20.940 Laura, we should talk.
00:43:22.000 I'd be a great chief of staff.
00:43:23.400 I'm just saying.
00:43:24.300 I'm just throwing it out there.
00:43:25.500 Mr. Clay Travis, you have the political gift of gab, sir.
00:43:29.880 I feel like I'm ready to move to Tennessee, and I live in Florida.
00:43:32.480 It's already great here.
00:43:34.400 I just think that, again, results really do matter, and sometimes it's frustrating when you don't
00:43:41.180 see those results in real time.
00:43:43.920 Look at Florida.
00:43:45.060 It really is a great story.
00:43:47.000 You've never lived in a deeply dysfunctional.
00:43:51.160 Well, I shouldn't say that.
00:43:51.960 You lived in D.C.
00:43:52.820 But, oh, we got breaking news.
00:43:56.060 Wow.
00:43:56.680 Wow.
00:43:57.040 All up on the screen.
00:43:58.540 Oh, boy.
00:43:58.980 I was asking Buck if we should bring this up because there was a bunch of noise.
00:44:04.820 I've got the vapors.
00:44:06.160 I've got the vapors.
00:44:07.160 Buck's good friend.
00:44:07.980 Christy Noem has been fired, everybody.
00:44:09.940 Christy Noem has been fired, they're telling me.
00:44:11.820 Oh, Lord.
00:44:13.900 Man.
00:44:14.340 So this is the first cabinet secretary to be removed from office.
00:44:19.400 We were talking off air about the fact that the odds in the prediction markets had gone
00:44:23.580 to 90% that she was out.
00:44:25.640 Wall Street Journal has really kind of come after her with a bunch of stories about spending.
00:44:30.900 And so Christy Noem now out.
00:44:32.940 Turns out someone who's corrupt, cheats on her husband, and shoots dogs for fun isn't
00:44:37.180 the best person to put in charge of maybe your most important federal agency.
00:44:41.300 I'm glad the administration is moving in the right direction here.
00:44:44.560 So now who is going to be the DHS secretary?
00:44:47.360 That's going to be the next question.
00:44:48.540 So Christy Noem out.
00:44:49.840 That's breaking news.
00:44:50.820 Just came up on Fox News as an alert.
00:44:53.740 There's a possibility, I guess, that Tom Homan could slide into that.
00:44:58.380 I would say alleged, by the way, with all of that.
00:45:00.440 Alleged.
00:45:00.980 These are all allegations, of course.
00:45:02.780 Yes.
00:45:03.680 Christy Noem is going to step down and Tom Homan's taking over?
00:45:07.780 Maybe.
00:45:08.280 I don't know.
00:45:08.940 I'm not sure who that next person is going to be.
00:45:11.760 Breaking news.
00:45:12.560 We'll come back and talk about who might be.
00:45:15.100 Oh, wow.
00:45:17.140 She's being replaced by Mark Wayne Mullen, Oklahoma senator.
00:45:21.760 There we go.
00:45:22.560 Just on the show this week, friend of the show, Mark Wayne Mullen.
00:45:27.900 And that's according to breaking news from Fox News, senator from Oklahoma, will now take
00:45:33.860 over as the head of DHS.
00:45:36.580 Apparently, the hearing was disastrous from Republican and Democrat sides of things.
00:45:40.360 We didn't really cover the hearing, but Noem had a hearing on Capitol Hill.
00:45:43.660 She was asked about a special government employee who travels with her, who is not her husband,
00:45:48.340 and that did not go over well.
00:45:49.700 She was asked a number of things that did not go over well, including a $200 million ad campaign
00:45:55.120 starring her.
00:45:56.720 That's taxpayer dollars, everybody.
00:45:59.460 $200 million.
00:46:01.300 So, President Trump, this is big news.
00:46:03.860 So, look, we're going to go to break.
00:46:05.860 We'll come back and we'll talk about it.
00:46:06.920 This is the first cabinet secretary in 2.0.
00:46:10.080 There's been a lot of stability so far.
00:46:12.000 This is the first cabinet secretary out.
00:46:14.800 Michael Walls has shifted, right?
00:46:17.660 They moved him to ambassador to the UN, if I'm not mistaken, from inside of the government.
00:46:23.740 So, that's the biggest move prior to now.
00:46:25.780 But, again, breaking news.
00:46:27.460 Kristi Noem out and Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma up now to be the new head of DHS.
00:46:34.920 We'll talk about that when we come back.
00:46:36.140 Again, breaking news coming down right now.
00:46:37.820 I just love to see this Trump administration making smart decisions and doing the best thing
00:46:42.600 for the American people and for the mission.
00:46:45.200 That's where I come down on this.
00:46:46.920 Buck and Kristi Noem, not exactly best chums for those of you who have been long-time listeners
00:46:51.100 to the program.
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00:49:13.360 Third hour of Clay and Buck kicks off now.
00:49:15.740 Our friend Ryan Grudusky joins us.
00:49:17.660 He is the host of It's a Numbers Game, a fantastic podcast, breaking down all the data in politics.
00:49:25.040 You can be smarter than all your friends about what's happening in these elections and the
00:49:28.880 polls and all the things going on.
00:49:31.180 Check out It's a Numbers Game on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network.
00:49:33.740 Ryan, thank you for being back with us.
00:49:36.660 Thank you.
00:49:36.800 I want to get to Texas.
00:49:38.220 I want to get to all that stuff.
00:49:39.520 But first, I have to ask you, you might have heard the big breaking news.
00:49:42.880 Kristi Noem fired from DHS and has some...
00:49:46.800 Actually, Clay, do you want to read what the job is that she's now being moved to?
00:49:50.120 Because it's a doozy.
00:49:51.860 Go ahead.
00:49:52.800 Yes.
00:49:53.100 President Trump has posted on Truth Social, and by the way, we should mention, she's speaking
00:49:59.200 right now here in Nashville.
00:50:01.740 So they demoted her, and then she's going directly in front of the media right now to
00:50:08.840 speak here in Nashville.
00:50:12.120 So that seems like a difficult spot where I am.
00:50:15.120 Here is what President Trump posted.
00:50:16.780 I am pleased to announce the highly respected United States Senator from the great state
00:50:21.780 of Oklahoma, Mark Wayne Mullen, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security
00:50:26.460 effective March 31st, 2026.
00:50:30.000 The current secretary, Kristi Noem, who has served us well and has had numerous and spectacular
00:50:35.000 results, especially on the border, will be moving to be special envoy for the Shield
00:50:42.200 of the Americas.
00:50:44.220 Our new security initiative in the Western Hemisphere, we are announcing on Saturday in
00:50:50.500 Doral, Florida.
00:50:51.880 I thank Kristi for her service at Homeland, and then a very strong endorsement of Mark Wayne
00:50:59.140 Mullen as her replacement.
00:51:00.740 Again, she is speaking right now.
00:51:02.640 Ryan, has she been sent to the archives?
00:51:05.480 Because special envoy to something I've never heard of before.
00:51:08.000 It doesn't sound that good.
00:51:09.520 Yes, she might as well be ambassador to Greece.
00:51:11.480 That's how much she's on the outs.
00:51:12.740 This has been – the rumors about Kristi Noem and the dislike on Kristi Noem has been going
00:51:19.020 on basically since she became DHS secretary.
00:51:22.540 The very expensive, four-foot-long weaves and wigs and the press conferences, and it's
00:51:28.660 been a lot – a lot of people haven't liked her association, quote-unquote, with a former
00:51:35.860 Trump campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, has not done favors from anyone in the interior
00:51:40.420 of the Trump administration, from the close people associated with him who do not like
00:51:44.080 Corey Lewandowski.
00:51:45.520 So there was a lot going.
00:51:48.040 And basically what Trump said is he accused her of lying to Congress, which is a federal
00:51:52.600 crime.
00:51:53.140 He said that he knew nothing about the $200 million ad featuring Kristi Noem.
00:51:57.480 I don't know.
00:51:58.760 I imagine there'll be another congressional investigation if Democrats take the House.
00:52:03.200 Yeah, this is a – this is interesting.
00:52:06.860 Again, she's speaking right now.
00:52:08.900 And I would just suggest to you –
00:52:12.700 Typically, this doesn't happen.
00:52:14.180 She tried to throw – she tried to throw Trump under the bus is actually what happened
00:52:17.640 here.
00:52:18.440 She got caught with her hand in the tail, $200 million of Kristi Noem's face everywhere.
00:52:22.900 You're a government employee.
00:52:24.400 Like, you're not running for office right now.
00:52:26.800 And she says, well, Trump said it was okay.
00:52:29.220 And Trump is saying, I did not say that was okay.
00:52:33.100 So it is a mess.
00:52:35.100 This is the first cabinet secretary to lose his or her job.
00:52:40.480 And again, if you're looking on the Senate side, Ryan, confirmation for senators who rise
00:52:48.320 to or ascend or – I guess it could theoretically be a demotion, depending on your perspective,
00:52:54.120 but usually it's seen as a promotion – to become cabinet secretaries, usually they get
00:53:00.120 confirmed fairly rapidly as sort of a Senate nod in their direction.
00:53:05.300 And so I would think this will not be something that gets bogged down in a significant way.
00:53:12.360 But what it does mean is Oklahoma is going to need a new senator in what is a fairly even
00:53:19.220 United States Senate right now.
00:53:21.780 Yeah, and I haven't had a chance to look at the process of how they either appoint or nominate
00:53:27.800 a senator.
00:53:28.600 Remember, the Senate – the current governor of Oklahoma is very moderate, especially on
00:53:33.860 immigration.
00:53:34.360 He has said that he doesn't believe that illegals are going to vote, or the Democrats want
00:53:39.920 illegals to vote.
00:53:41.500 And he has been very complimentary towards illegal aliens.
00:53:44.800 There is another candidate running for governor who has called for basically unbedded immigration.
00:53:50.560 So Oklahoma – and James Langford worked with Biden on a bill that would have given them
00:53:54.840 5,000 illegals crossing a day.
00:53:57.660 Oklahoma, for a conservative state, has not always elected the best people.
00:54:00.840 Mark Wayne Mullen is definitely the most conservative member of the delegation.
00:54:04.360 So it will be sad to see him go, but it will be very interesting who is his replacement.
00:54:09.920 More details coming out here.
00:54:12.780 Bill Malusian reports Senator Kennedy of Louisiana had that contentious back and forth, said that
00:54:21.520 when he told Trump about it, Trump was, quote, mad as a murder hornet that Kristi Noem claimed he
00:54:29.360 approved the $200 million ad contract.
00:54:32.780 Kennedy said he was upset by that contract.
00:54:35.900 He called the White House, told them in advance he was going to press her on that at the hearing,
00:54:42.880 and the White House was not opposed to it.
00:54:45.820 So this feels a little bit like a political hit where Senator Kennedy, who is a Republican – usually,
00:54:53.500 you guys all watch these hearings – usually Republican witnesses, cabinet members are treated
00:54:58.840 pretty kindly by the party that is the same as theirs and grilled on the opposite side.
00:55:05.720 When this hearing, as Buck mentioned last hour, kind of went off the rails a little bit and
00:55:10.940 Republicans came after her, it was a sign that there was disapproval on both sides.
00:55:19.660 And now, again, Mark Wayne Mullen is in and Kristi Noem is out.
00:55:23.180 I would just add to this, Ryan, that it's not over Minneapolis, from what we can tell.
00:55:29.540 Minneapolis seems to have played very little – now, I'm sure that that's – you know,
00:55:33.840 you could say that that was compounded into all of this, but it's not that she messed up
00:55:39.160 the messaging in Minneapolis, which I think she certainly did.
00:55:42.700 It's that when push came to shove, she tried to shove Trump under the bus, because there's
00:55:48.080 no way to justify a $220 million ad budget starring you as a government
00:55:53.080 employee, about a government program.
00:55:56.620 Yeah, it was – as I said before, there have been a number of people who really
00:56:01.880 questioned why she ever got the job.
00:56:04.220 They never liked her in that position.
00:56:07.360 They didn't like her with her – I mean, South Park humorized it very well, but the
00:56:12.620 fact that she has these expensive makeup ads and these – expensive makeup jobs and these
00:56:17.560 giant weebs and is on television every 30 seconds kind of promoting herself.
00:56:23.080 And it doesn't come as a shock that they did not oppose Senator Kennedy wanting to ask
00:56:28.880 her about this.
00:56:30.100 And it's – yeah, it sounds like this is – there's been a lot of blood – no love
00:56:36.680 lost between the two for a very, very long time.
00:56:38.860 Well, I just – I bring this up, Clay, just because to me it's – Trump is loyal to people
00:56:43.320 who are loyal to him.
00:56:44.800 And Kristi Noem's main asset had been an unflinching loyalty to Donald Trump.
00:56:48.740 I will say that for her.
00:56:49.960 She was unflinchingly loyal to Donald Trump because she thought it benefited her.
00:56:54.440 And then when she got grilled and the heat was on, she turned on Trump and Trump said,
00:56:58.760 see you later.
00:56:59.720 That's what I see happening here.
00:57:01.480 So –
00:57:01.920 I don't disagree either.
00:57:03.540 Ryan, I'm going to ask you about the larger Senate issues at play because now Mark
00:57:07.700 Wayne Mullen factors in a bit here, but Senator Fetterman has already said, as a member of
00:57:14.540 the Homeland Security Committee, ranking member of the subcommittee, I'm not sure how many
00:57:19.040 of my fellow Democrats will vote to support Mullen as the next DHS secretary, but I am
00:57:26.460 I.
00:57:27.260 So he is saying AYE.
00:57:29.340 He is saying that he is yes, which would get us theoretically to 54.
00:57:33.640 I don't think you can overlook – sometimes these cabinet battles can get really contentious.
00:57:41.980 It sounds like Trump is making a choice here for somebody that he thinks will get confirmed
00:57:46.840 quite easily coming out of the Senate.
00:57:49.240 But let's talk about the Senate here for a minute, Ryan.
00:57:52.040 Texas, this is what we initially had you on to talk about.
00:57:55.780 We know that Maine and North Carolina, where there are Republican senators currently in position
00:58:02.540 there, are going to be tough battles, right?
00:58:05.220 Susan Collins and the open seat in North Carolina.
00:58:08.440 Georgia and Michigan, and maybe to an extent Minnesota, there has been some optimism that
00:58:13.800 Republicans could put Democrat seats in play.
00:58:16.680 But really, so long as Republicans keep Texas, Iowa, Montana, states like that, Ohio –
00:58:25.480 And Alaska.
00:58:25.840 And Alaska, a good one to bring up.
00:58:29.740 How much of what's going on right now in Texas is really just about the Trump White House
00:58:35.380 saying, we need to make sure that Texas is not a seat on the board, because if you take
00:58:41.480 Texas off, the math starts to get more difficult.
00:58:45.500 Yeah, I mean, listen, part of it is that Paxton underperformed.
00:58:50.160 He did very poorly in this primary.
00:58:52.080 Cornyn spent a fortune, but to his credit, he was polling in the low 30s and ended up
00:58:59.720 coming up number one.
00:59:01.540 Had Cornyn come out with 30 percent, as some of the polls said, I'm sure this call would
00:59:06.380 not be being made right now.
00:59:07.880 But Paxton underperformed polling.
00:59:09.940 He was up by five and six points in most polls.
00:59:12.600 He ended up being down by a point and a half.
00:59:14.880 Paxton had the fight of his life, and I would give – sorry, Cornyn did the fight of his
00:59:18.320 life, and I give credit to the old man.
00:59:20.180 He came out slugging, and he won.
00:59:23.100 So there's no – had he come in a second or a distant second, he would not be getting
00:59:28.260 this treatment right now.
00:59:29.840 But you can't – I said this in my podcast episode that comes out tomorrow for a numbers
00:59:34.920 game.
00:59:35.540 Do you remember a single moment during this campaign where Paxton actually had a viral
00:59:40.700 moment, had a reason for running for office, sat there and really nailed down why Cornyn
00:59:48.040 was an insufficient Republican senator?
00:59:49.800 I don't remember it.
00:59:51.340 I don't – and I pay attention all the time.
00:59:53.800 Paxton was completely MIA, and I talked to people in Texas who said he is a very lazy
00:59:59.180 campaigner, and he's overly exaggerated constantly.
01:00:01.880 And there was a case to be made against Cornyn.
01:00:04.260 But Paxton doesn't look like he was ever going to be the one to really work for it the way
01:00:09.080 that it was needed to be.
01:00:10.520 Can we – let's keep Ryan through to talk Tallarico and the general here in a second,
01:00:14.920 because I want to talk to you about those numbers, Tallarico, how that all plays out.
01:00:18.320 These clips, Ryan, I mean, you've heard some of them.
01:00:21.200 We might even be able to play one or two when we come back.
01:00:23.560 They're wild, the stuff that this Tallarico guy says.
01:00:26.240 I mean, it's pretty astonishing.
01:00:28.160 So stay through with us if you can.
01:00:29.740 It's a numbers game is Ryan's podcast.
01:00:31.180 We'll talk about the Texas general matchup as well as how this primary continues to play out
01:00:36.180 and the overall Senate picture.
01:00:38.860 We'll return to that here with Ryan Gerdusky in a second.
01:00:41.380 Clay?
01:00:42.000 No doubt.
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