Verdict with Ted Cruz - January 23, 2024


Bonus Pod： WHY New Hampshire Matters...and Iowa...and South Carolina


Episode Stats


Length

26 minutes

Words per minute

150.27052

Word count

4,055

Sentence count

563

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) joins me to discuss the impact the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries have had on presidential candidates in the past and the impact they can have on the future. We discuss the role Iowa has played in shaping presidential candidates and how they ve changed over the years.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.500 Guaranteed human.
00:00:05.400 Senator Cruz and I sat down and did a really, really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire,
00:00:11.940 South Carolina, moving into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron DeSantis dropping out.
00:00:17.360 So what does history have to say about those states picking who's going to actually be
00:00:21.700 the president?
00:00:22.480 And what does it look like now moving forward with Donald Trump against Nikki Haley?
00:00:26.520 Here is our deep dive, especially as you're getting ready to see what happens in New
00:00:31.880 Hampshire.
00:00:32.500 It's Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz.
00:00:34.620 You know, I think it's interesting if you look at the history of the primaries, and I want
00:00:38.200 to do a little bit of a deep dive into these early state primaries, the role that they have
00:00:42.960 played.
00:00:43.400 And so let's start with Iowa.
00:00:44.640 The Iowa caucuses have played a very significant role.
00:00:48.380 Let's start on the Democrat side and go back to 1976.
00:00:52.760 1976, 1976, the Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus.
00:00:56.960 Do you know who it was?
00:00:57.620 I don't.
00:00:58.720 It was the governor of Georgia, an unknown candidate by the name of Jimmy Carter.
00:01:03.420 Really?
00:01:03.920 And the Iowa caucuses basically propelled Jimmy Carter to become president of the United
00:01:08.780 States.
00:01:09.280 And he went and he worked it.
00:01:11.060 He worked it on the ground.
00:01:12.420 There are 99 counties in Iowa.
00:01:14.300 He went and did grassroots events after grassroots event.
00:01:16.740 And Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal.
00:01:19.780 Without that, he doesn't become president.
00:01:24.460 You then look 1984.
00:01:28.460 So 1980, Carter's the incumbents of the caucus doesn't matter.
00:01:32.780 84 is the next open presidential race.
00:01:35.500 The winner of it was Walter Mondale.
00:01:38.100 49%.
00:01:38.620 So Mondale, Jimmy Carter's VP, wins a big victory in the Iowa caucus, goes on to be the nominee
00:01:45.080 and lose the general election.
00:01:46.320 Uh, 1988, the winner of the Iowa caucus was Dick Gephardt.
00:01:52.900 Now.
00:01:53.300 Over to caucus.
00:01:54.480 Dick Gephardt got 31%.
00:01:56.380 Paul Simon got 27%.
00:01:59.140 Michael Dukakis got 22%.
00:02:01.180 So it's tight.
00:02:02.420 Now, remember, you know, Gephardt was from Missouri.
00:02:05.100 Missouri is not that far from Iowa.
00:02:06.780 So there was a Midwestern.
00:02:08.900 Iowa has historically given some additional credence to Midwesterners.
00:02:13.480 And Dukakis was from Massachusetts.
00:02:15.980 So it was, uh, yeah, it was a hard match.
00:02:19.240 And so that was one where the winner did not win the nomination.
00:02:23.980 1992.
00:02:25.420 Who won the Democrat Iowa caucus in 92?
00:02:28.560 I'm going to guess.
00:02:29.360 Was it Bill Clinton?
00:02:30.200 No.
00:02:30.560 Okay.
00:02:30.820 Who was it?
00:02:31.920 Uh, in fact, Bill Clinton got 3%.
00:02:35.240 Really?
00:02:36.060 He got crushed.
00:02:36.820 The winner was Tom Harkin.
00:02:40.180 Yeah.
00:02:40.600 So Iowa didn't really matter because Harkin was a home state hero.
00:02:45.500 And so it basically, Iowa was written off, uh, in, in 92.
00:02:50.780 Um, 2000, what Democrat won?
00:02:54.060 Al Gore.
00:02:55.120 He got 63%.
00:02:56.360 He beat Bill Bradley by 37%.
00:02:58.620 So in 2000, the Iowa caucus winner won the Democrat nomination.
00:03:02.400 2004, John Kerry won.
00:03:06.740 He got 38%, beat John Edwards with 32%.
00:03:10.060 Yeah.
00:03:10.380 And that was a tight race.
00:03:11.580 That was a tight race.
00:03:12.720 And, and Kerry obviously went on to win the nomination, lose the general.
00:03:16.760 2008, the winner, Barack Obama.
00:03:20.420 Yep.
00:03:21.240 Uh, Barack Obama won with 38%.
00:03:23.280 He beat John Edwards.
00:03:24.420 Hillary was third in Iowa.
00:03:26.180 Um, 20, 2016, Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, but with 50% to Bernie's 49.
00:03:36.600 And it was a neck and neck photo finish.
00:03:38.900 So I remember that night.
00:03:40.200 That was an incredible night because no one had a clue what was going to happen.
00:03:43.440 And it was a, it was a dogfight in that democratic primary.
00:03:46.040 Like we hadn't seen in modern political history.
00:03:48.820 Uh, it, it was, and, and, and it was, it was neck and neck.
00:03:53.520 And then 2000, remember the Iowa Democrat caucus was a mess and you had, had Pete Buttigieg and
00:04:00.360 Bernie Sanders both coming out with 26%.
00:04:03.840 All right.
00:04:05.120 Republican side.
00:04:07.400 So conventional wisdom today is Iowa is more conservative and more evangelical.
00:04:15.100 There's certainly a very large evangelical population in Iowa.
00:04:17.980 What's interesting is that Iowa has not always played that role.
00:04:21.240 And I'm going to tell you in a minute, we moved to New Hampshire, New Hampshire has not
00:04:24.900 always played the role of the more moderate state.
00:04:27.320 And so over history, they've changed some.
00:04:30.920 So 1976 Republican primary who won Iowa in 1976.
00:04:38.340 I have no idea.
00:04:40.640 Gerald Ford, but he beat Reagan 45 to 43.
00:04:45.880 So it was close.
00:04:46.980 It was never Ford is the incumbent president.
00:04:49.240 Yeah.
00:04:49.440 So this is when Reagan is primarying the incumbent president and he comes incredibly close to
00:04:55.300 beating him, but Ford, the more moderate choice, narrowly wins Iowa in 76.
00:05:01.580 All right.
00:05:02.680 How about 1980?
00:05:05.080 So Reagan has...
00:05:06.200 I was going to say, how to be Reagan.
00:05:07.240 So Reagan has almost beaten Ford four years earlier.
00:05:11.420 So who wins Iowa in 80?
00:05:12.900 I would assume he would have just owned it there.
00:05:15.740 You would assume, but you would assume incorrectly.
00:05:17.680 Uh, the winner of Iowa in 1980 was George Herbert Walker Bush with 32%.
00:05:23.380 Reagan got 30.
00:05:25.140 So it's still tight.
00:05:26.020 It was tight, but again, so that's two elections in a row, 76 and 80.
00:05:30.700 The more moderate candidate beat the more conservative candidate in Iowa.
00:05:34.640 All right.
00:05:36.180 Fast forward, 84 was Reagan unopposed, uh, 88, the winner of Iowa, Bob Dole.
00:05:45.200 Now, again, as a Kansas guy, the, the Midwestern Dole had an advantage, but Iowa was consequential.
00:05:53.100 Do you remember who took second in 88 in Iowa?
00:05:58.120 Would it have been Bush?
00:05:59.720 No.
00:06:00.480 Who was it?
00:06:01.140 That's why, that's why it was notable.
00:06:02.580 Yeah.
00:06:03.360 It was Pat Robertson.
00:06:04.720 That's right.
00:06:05.680 Who ran as...
00:06:06.720 Yeah, the Christian conservative, that, that was, that was the evangelical.
00:06:10.600 He went hard in on evangelicals and it worked. 1.00
00:06:13.120 So Pat Robertson got 25%.
00:06:15.480 What was the mantra then?
00:06:16.940 I'm trying to remember.
00:06:17.580 What was the exact words?
00:06:18.520 It was, it was, it was, it, oh, it was something with Christian and it was the, the way that 0.96
00:06:23.500 he cast the vote that time.
00:06:24.980 And it was a huge moving block.
00:06:26.620 Do you remember that?
00:06:27.960 Uh, the Christian coalition.
00:06:29.600 Christian coalition.
00:06:29.960 But it was under that and there was something else he said and it was like, and it stuck with
00:06:33.740 people.
00:06:33.980 I'll think of it in a second, but it was big.
00:06:35.760 So Bush 41 was, was third at 19%.
00:06:39.060 Jack Kemp with 11%.
00:06:40.700 Pete DuPont was 7%.
00:06:42.400 So that, that was 88.
00:06:44.460 All right.
00:06:45.700 Look, fast forward to 96.
00:06:47.580 The winner, the winner of Iowa 96 was Bob Dole.
00:06:52.700 26%.
00:06:53.620 So he's a Midwesterner, but again, quite moderate, but in second place, you remember who was second
00:07:01.220 place?
00:07:01.660 I have no idea.
00:07:02.760 Pat Buchanan.
00:07:04.000 Yeah.
00:07:05.260 23%.
00:07:05.660 So almost beats Bob Dole, uh, in Iowa that year.
00:07:10.900 And that, that became a big, big deal.
00:07:14.520 Um, all right.
00:07:16.540 2000.
00:07:17.120 Who wins Iowa?
00:07:19.820 2000.
00:07:21.280 Iowa.
00:07:21.860 I'm trying to think of an underdog.
00:07:23.200 Cause it seems like they're going with the underdog.
00:07:24.800 Who was it?
00:07:26.060 George W.
00:07:26.700 Bush.
00:07:27.360 Okay.
00:07:27.620 Big victory, big victory with evangelicals. 0.88
00:07:30.340 Remember his dad had won it narrowly, had beaten Reagan narrowly.
00:07:34.600 Um, and George W.
00:07:36.180 Bush had a lot more credibility with evangelicals than his dad did.
00:07:39.020 And he spent a lot of time.
00:07:40.800 Um, I was on that campaign winning Iowa was a big deal.
00:07:44.480 Who came in second there that year?
00:07:45.920 Steve Forbes.
00:07:46.700 That's right.
00:07:47.200 So Bush wins Iowa with 41%.
00:07:50.420 Steve Forbes, 31%.
00:07:52.160 Alan Keyes, 14%.
00:07:54.460 Gary Bauer, 9%.
00:07:56.480 John McCain, 5%.
00:07:58.480 And John McCain basically wrote Iowa off.
00:08:00.380 He said, I'm not competing there.
00:08:02.340 And Orrin Hatch, 1%.
00:08:04.200 2008.
00:08:07.180 Next open seat, the winner of Iowa was Mike Huckabee.
00:08:10.860 Yep.
00:08:11.040 That's the, 2008's where you started to see the sort of evangelical conservative winning.
00:08:18.200 So Huckabee wins with 34%.
00:08:20.000 Mitt Romney, second with 25%.
00:08:22.140 Fred Thompson at 13%.
00:08:24.220 John McCain, 13%.
00:08:26.300 Ron Paul, 10%.
00:08:27.980 And there was a whole libertarian thing.
00:08:29.700 Ron Paul's 10% was significant.
00:08:32.600 Rudy Giuliani with 4%.
00:08:34.640 And Duncan Hunter with 1%.
00:08:36.120 2012.
00:08:37.440 So the winner in 2012 was Rick Santorum with 25%.
00:08:43.940 But he basically tied with Mitt Romney at 25%.
00:08:47.980 Remember, they didn't declare a winner.
00:08:49.400 Yeah.
00:08:49.900 That's right.
00:08:50.360 They couldn't figure it out.
00:08:51.880 And people were frustrated over that because it was like, are you cooking the books here?
00:08:55.060 Why are you not saying someone won?
00:08:56.380 Well, and that ended up hurting Santorum a lot because...
00:09:00.380 You couldn't claim victory.
00:09:01.320 You won to claim victory.
00:09:02.420 The benefit of winning Iowa, one of the benefits, typically Iowa...
00:09:07.380 Whittles down the field.
00:09:09.880 It eliminates candidates.
00:09:12.020 The sort of conventional wisdom is there are three passes out of Iowa.
00:09:15.280 The top three come out.
00:09:17.480 And typically the winner gets a bounce.
00:09:21.960 Santorum did not get a bounce.
00:09:23.720 And obviously Mitt Romney ended up going on to win the nomination.
00:09:28.520 2016.
00:09:29.820 Yours truly.
00:09:31.740 I got 28% in Iowa.
00:09:33.600 Won the Iowa caucus.
00:09:34.780 Donald Trump got 24%.
00:09:36.480 Rubio got 23%.
00:09:38.260 So Rubio almost beat Trump in Iowa that year.
00:09:41.860 Ben Carson got 9%.
00:09:43.560 Rand Paul 5%.
00:09:44.780 Jeb Bush 3%.
00:09:46.040 Carly Fiorina 2%.
00:09:47.960 And others 7% between them.
00:09:49.880 And then you look at this year, Donald Trump, 51%.
00:09:56.160 DeSantis, 21%.
00:09:57.680 So Trump wins by 30 points.
00:10:00.020 So we were saying, you know, traditionally today people think of New Hampshire more moderate.
00:10:05.100 Well, that hasn't always been the case.
00:10:07.080 So let's take the Democrat side, first of all.
00:10:10.380 Democrat side, 1976.
00:10:12.220 Who wins New Hampshire?
00:10:14.440 Who?
00:10:14.960 Jimmy Carter.
00:10:16.160 So Jimmy Carter wins.
00:10:17.260 I win New Hampshire.
00:10:17.760 Back to back, it's over.
00:10:18.840 He's the nominee.
00:10:19.440 He's the president.
00:10:19.980 You win both, it's game over.
00:10:23.840 Mo Udall was second with 23%.
00:10:25.900 Jimmy Carter had 29%.
00:10:27.600 1980.
00:10:30.340 Now, 1980 is interesting.
00:10:32.060 Jimmy Carter is the incumbent president.
00:10:34.540 But he gets a very strong primary from Ted Kennedy.
00:10:37.900 Carter wins.
00:10:39.260 But he wins New Hampshire with 48%.
00:10:41.560 And Ted Kennedy gets 38%.
00:10:43.220 Now, obviously, Kennedy's from Massachusetts, too.
00:10:45.480 So you have the neighboring effect.
00:10:46.880 But that was, and Jerry Brown got 10% in that race.
00:10:50.220 Wow.
00:10:52.480 84.
00:10:54.420 Who wins in 84?
00:10:56.480 1984.
00:10:57.980 The Democrat primary.
00:10:59.620 I have no idea.
00:11:00.900 Gary Hart.
00:11:01.800 Really?
00:11:02.480 Senator from Colorado.
00:11:04.500 He gets 39%.
00:11:06.140 Walter Mondale, the VP who goes on to be the nominee, gets just 29%.
00:11:10.280 All right.
00:11:13.640 1988.
00:11:14.500 The winner is Michael Dukakis, the neighboring governor.
00:11:18.080 He gets 36%.
00:11:19.820 Dick Gephardt, who just won Iowa, gets 20%.
00:11:22.460 1992.
00:11:24.840 Okay.
00:11:25.300 Who wins New Hampshire?
00:11:27.260 In 92.
00:11:27.880 In 92 on the Democratic side.
00:11:30.020 I'm trying to remember who all was in that race in 92.
00:11:33.080 Who was it?
00:11:34.180 The winner is Paul Songhus.
00:11:35.960 Okay.
00:11:36.220 I'm glad.
00:11:36.840 I'm actually glad I didn't know that one.
00:11:38.860 33%.
00:11:39.700 Second place is Bill Clinton at 25%.
00:11:44.080 And remember, look, Bill Clinton in Iowa had gotten 3%.
00:11:47.780 He got crushed in Iowa.
00:11:48.860 Yeah.
00:11:49.300 And then after that, the whole Jennifer Flower story came out.
00:11:53.200 So he's getting crushed on that, too.
00:11:55.440 And Bill Clinton turned a second place finish in New Hampshire with 25% into saying the comeback kid.
00:12:02.960 Yeah.
00:12:03.220 And that second place propelled him to the presidency.
00:12:07.200 Year 2000, what Democrat wins?
00:12:10.140 Al Gore.
00:12:10.880 But Al Gore beats Bill Bradley 50% to 46%.
00:12:15.140 So very close primary.
00:12:17.100 Bill Bradley's from New Jersey.
00:12:18.520 Yep.
00:12:18.720 So you've got the Northeastern thing, but it was interesting how neck and neck and New Hampshire has been pretty good at picking the nominee.
00:12:26.460 There was also that eight-year fatigue of Clinton, right?
00:12:29.020 And that actually hurt, I think, Al Gore at the end.
00:12:31.280 Because if I remember correctly, Al Gore's campaign did not utilize Bill Clinton.
00:12:36.220 They kind of separated.
00:12:37.300 No, they hid him.
00:12:38.140 Yeah.
00:12:38.420 They did not want him around the campaign.
00:12:39.820 Bill Clinton had been impeached.
00:12:40.500 You had Monica Lewinsky.
00:12:41.620 I mean, they ran away from Bill Clinton.
00:12:43.660 Yeah.
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00:13:13.840 You look at 2004, the winner of New Hampshire, John Kerry with 38%.
00:13:21.600 Second place, Howard Dean, the governor of neighboring Vermont, with 26%.
00:13:27.440 2008, who wins New Hampshire in 2008 in the Democratic Party?
00:13:32.420 Was it Obama or was it Clinton?
00:13:33.900 Hillary Clinton.
00:13:34.380 Hillary Clinton.
00:13:34.780 39%.
00:13:35.580 Obama gets 36%.
00:13:37.140 John Edwards, 17%.
00:13:38.500 Bill Richardson, 5%.
00:13:39.480 Dennis Kucinich, 1%.
00:13:41.600 You go to 2016, the winner of New Hampshire was Bernie Sanders with 60%.
00:13:48.840 I remember that.
00:13:49.860 Feel the burn.
00:13:50.600 Hillary Clinton, 38%.
00:13:52.320 And then in 2020, the winner of New Hampshire again, Bernie Sanders, 26%.
00:13:57.420 Pete Buttigieg, 24%.
00:13:59.240 Klobuchar, 20%.
00:14:00.360 Elizabeth Warren, 9%.
00:14:02.420 Joe Biden, 8%.
00:14:03.620 Tom Steyer, 4%.
00:14:05.160 Tulsi Gabbard, 3%.
00:14:06.740 And Andrew Yang, 3%.
00:14:08.340 Go back to Joe Biden just for a second.
00:14:09.800 What was that number again for him?
00:14:11.780 8%.
00:14:12.180 And he still became president of the United States of America.
00:14:14.860 Yeah, 8%.
00:14:15.500 Wow.
00:14:16.820 And we'll get to that in a moment because there's a lot to say.
00:14:19.260 All right, let's talk about Republicans in New Hampshire.
00:14:22.900 All right.
00:14:23.340 So we talked about 1976, that Gerald Ford narrowly wins Iowa.
00:14:28.960 What do you think happens in New Hampshire?
00:14:31.720 76, it's got to be Reagan.
00:14:33.880 So again, Gerald Ford narrowly wins New Hampshire.
00:14:37.880 Ford gets 50%.
00:14:39.100 Reagan gets 49%.
00:14:41.040 Okay, so he kept the momentum.
00:14:43.540 All right, 1980.
00:14:45.640 So 1980, remember who won in Iowa?
00:14:48.580 That was George Herbert Walker Bush.
00:14:50.700 We get to New Hampshire.
00:14:51.640 Did Reagan pull that one off? 1.00
00:14:54.240 Reagan wins New Hampshire with 50% of the vote.
00:14:58.040 George Herbert Walker Bush, 23%.
00:15:00.120 So that's when it flipped and the campaign got interested.
00:15:02.600 And by the way, remember the sort of popular narrative today of New Hampshire is more moderate.
00:15:07.600 Well, you look at that cycle.
00:15:09.300 It was not.
00:15:09.660 The more moderate candidate won Iowa and the more conservative candidate won New Hampshire.
00:15:14.180 Now that was also, Reagan had a singular breakout moment where he's in the middle of the debate,
00:15:19.820 a debate that ultimately he had paid for.
00:15:23.360 And the moderator, there was an argument about whether additional candidates who hadn't made the debate stage should be allowed to debate,
00:15:30.620 and Reagan wanted them to.
00:15:31.760 And the moderator tried to say no and said, turn off Reagan's microphone. 0.98
00:15:39.360 And Reagan leans forward famously and says, Mr. Breen, I paid for this microphone. 0.75
00:15:45.720 And it was seen at the time as a level of presidential leadership.
00:15:51.500 And he had, in fact, paid for the microphone.
00:15:54.600 He was funding the whole debate.
00:15:57.040 All right.
00:15:58.640 Fast forward to 88.
00:16:00.220 Who wins in 88?
00:16:01.860 It's got to be Bush.
00:16:03.520 George Herbert Walker Bush, 38%.
00:16:05.780 Bob Dole, 28%.
00:16:07.660 And so New Hampshire, one of the interesting patterns about New Hampshire, it's a state that has tended to reward runner-ups.
00:16:17.020 So remember, New Hampshire gave it to Reagan over Bush, 41, and then eight years later, gives it to Bush, 41, over Bob Dole.
00:16:28.600 All right.
00:16:29.400 You go from there to 1996.
00:16:33.840 Who wins New Hampshire in 1996?
00:16:36.560 96 New Hampshire has got to be, is it Bush?
00:16:42.140 Nope.
00:16:42.660 Who is it?
00:16:44.260 Pat Buchanan.
00:16:45.540 Oh, okay.
00:16:46.140 Buchanan wins New Hampshire, 27%.
00:16:49.880 Bob Dole, 26%.
00:16:51.520 Lamar Alexander, 23%.
00:16:53.260 Steve Forbes, 12%.
00:16:54.820 Dick Lugar, 5%.
00:16:55.880 Alan Keyes, 3%.
00:16:57.100 Maury Taylor, 1%.
00:16:58.720 Oh, 96.
00:17:00.200 Got it.
00:17:00.440 Okay.
00:17:01.320 2000.
00:17:02.280 Who wins New Hampshire in 2000?
00:17:04.480 So 2000, that's where I was, I thought you said, so Bush.
00:17:07.840 I would have said Bush then in 2000.
00:17:09.500 Nope.
00:17:11.280 2000, I remember, I was on this campaign.
00:17:13.140 And I remember, well, Bush had just won Iowa decisively.
00:17:17.320 John McCain wins New Hampshire.
00:17:18.980 49% to George W.
00:17:22.040 Bush is 30%.
00:17:23.560 Steve Forbes, 13%.
00:17:25.680 Alan Keyes, 6%.
00:17:26.860 Now, I got to say, that, it was a 19-point victory.
00:17:30.300 Kicked our teeth in.
00:17:31.980 It's the best thing that ever happened to the Bush 2000 campaign.
00:17:34.780 Because the campaign in Austin, at times, would get overconfident and run entitled and be
00:17:42.640 afraid to run hard.
00:17:44.480 And after Iowa, all of those instincts were in full display.
00:17:49.200 Getting our teeth kicked in in New Hampshire in 2000 made the campaign actually get out and
00:17:54.760 fight.
00:17:55.560 And it made it ultimately, ironically, losing New Hampshire helped propel Bush 43 on to win.
00:18:02.600 2008, the winner of New Hampshire, John McCain.
00:18:09.080 John McCain, again.
00:18:09.940 Again.
00:18:11.300 37% Mitt Romney, 32%.
00:18:13.940 So he's in second.
00:18:14.980 Huckabee, 11%.
00:18:16.160 So Huckabee's won Iowa, gets crushed in New Hampshire.
00:18:21.020 Rudy Giuliani, 8%.
00:18:22.700 Ron Paul, 8%.
00:18:23.980 Fred Thompson, 1%.
00:18:25.420 2012, the winner of New Hampshire, Mitt Romney.
00:18:29.860 Yeah.
00:18:30.000 He was second four years earlier.
00:18:32.020 And there's a pattern.
00:18:33.520 New Hampshire tends to like people who were second in the previous cycle.
00:18:37.620 Mitt Romney, 39%.
00:18:39.460 Ron Paul, 23%.
00:18:42.740 John Huntsman, 17%.
00:18:44.460 Rick Santorum, who had just won Iowa, 9%.
00:18:47.840 Newt Gingrich, 9%.
00:18:49.220 And then 2016, Donald Trump, with a big victory, 35%.
00:18:55.360 So he loses Iowa, goes on to win New Hampshire.
00:18:58.380 New Hampshire played a pivotal part in electing Trump the first time.
00:19:02.700 Kasich was second.
00:19:03.740 I was third in New Hampshire.
00:19:05.780 So Trump won a significant victory.
00:19:08.360 Now, we see in modern times, New Hampshire tends not to like the winner of the Iowa caucuses.
00:19:14.300 It's almost like they want to say, hold on, we started here and we're our own people, we're our own place.
00:19:19.100 And look, part of the reason is, as the Iowa caucuses has gotten more evangelical, New Hampshire is not a very evangelical state.
00:19:27.900 There's just not a large evangelical population there.
00:19:30.800 It's kind of flinty New Englander.
00:19:33.000 There is a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant.
00:19:38.260 Ron Paul has done well over the years.
00:19:40.860 My supporters in New Hampshire had a lot of libertarians who were backing me in New Hampshire.
00:19:45.600 But it's a very different state.
00:19:48.740 And there's also a populist strain.
00:19:51.620 And so understand, it's not—there is, one, the sort of faith and religiosity, the sort of evangelical question.
00:19:58.180 There is, secondly, the ideological conservative versus moderate.
00:20:03.900 But there's, thirdly, the populist.
00:20:06.300 And remember, New Hampshire is a state that Pat Buchanan won.
00:20:09.620 Yeah.
00:20:10.300 And Pat Buchanan, in many ways, and then Ross Perot, there is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist.
00:20:23.180 And so New Hampshire combines all of those.
00:20:26.600 And the reason Trump in 16 did so well in New Hampshire is he tapped into that same Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot populist movement in New Hampshire.
00:20:38.780 All right.
00:20:39.480 Third state, South Carolina, because the three, with some frequency, those three states picked the president.
00:20:46.800 All right.
00:20:49.240 Democrat side.
00:20:51.400 1988, the winner of the Democrat caucus, Jesse Jackson.
00:20:56.460 55 percent, Al Gore 17 percent, Dukakis 6 percent, Gephardt 2 percent.
00:21:02.820 So Dukakis goes on to win, but he gets crushed in South Carolina.
00:21:06.760 Now, the primary vote in South Carolina on the Democrat side is very heavily African-American.
00:21:14.720 Yeah.
00:21:14.840 So Jesse Jackson wins a big, big victory, but it doesn't decide the winner that year.
00:21:21.800 1992, the winner of South Carolina.
00:21:25.600 Bill Clinton.
00:21:26.520 Bill Clinton with 63 percent.
00:21:29.540 Paul Songus, who had just won New Hampshire, gets 18 percent.
00:21:33.780 Tom Harkin, 7 percent.
00:21:35.440 Jerry Brown, 6 percent.
00:21:36.820 So Bill Clinton's second place in New Hampshire, the comeback kid, sets him up for a stunning victory in South Carolina.
00:21:46.220 That ends up giving him the nomination and ultimately electing him president.
00:21:53.060 Why is it?
00:21:53.660 2000, Al Gore with 92 percent.
00:21:57.780 So Gore in the Southern.
00:21:58.580 Bill Bradley gets 2 percent.
00:21:59.860 So it's just a Southern Southern thing.
00:22:03.740 2004.
00:22:05.540 Who won South Carolina in 2004, the Democrat primary?
00:22:08.380 I have no idea.
00:22:09.180 Who was it?
00:22:09.920 John Edwards.
00:22:11.260 Oh, that's yeah.
00:22:12.540 That's right.
00:22:13.280 He was from North Carolina.
00:22:14.260 He was a neighbor.
00:22:15.180 46 percent.
00:22:16.620 John Kerry, 30 percent.
00:22:18.000 Al Sharpton, 10 percent.
00:22:19.460 Wesley Clark, 7 percent.
00:22:21.080 Howard Dean, 5 percent.
00:22:22.260 Joe Lieberman, 2 percent.
00:22:23.400 I remember that change Super Tuesday.
00:22:25.380 And there was a lot of questions about Super Tuesday.
00:22:27.300 Who was going to do well after Edwards did so well?
00:22:29.460 Yeah.
00:22:31.020 2008, the winner of South Carolina, Barack Obama.
00:22:34.720 Yeah.
00:22:35.120 So for the Democrats, Obama wins Iowa, South Carolina.
00:22:39.880 Hillary wins New Hampshire.
00:22:41.220 Obama ends up winning.
00:22:44.600 2016, who wins South Carolina?
00:22:47.900 Who was it?
00:22:48.760 Hillary Clinton was 73 percent.
00:22:51.000 Bernie Sanders, just 26 percent.
00:22:53.280 So Bernie did great, had won New Hampshire, was in a dominant position.
00:22:56.880 South Carolina, boom.
00:22:58.200 Welcome to reality, right?
00:22:59.640 2020, the winner of South Carolina.
00:23:03.320 Who was it?
00:23:04.280 Joe Biden, 48 percent.
00:23:06.680 Bernie Sanders, 20 percent.
00:23:08.420 Interesting.
00:23:08.820 So understand, in 2020, Bernie had won Iowa and New Hampshire.
00:23:14.180 Yeah.
00:23:15.180 And then South Carolina came in and the African-American vote rallied. 0.91
00:23:19.760 Bernie has had trouble getting the African-American vote historically.
00:23:22.780 Yeah.
00:23:22.940 And for the Democrats, South Carolina, they circled the wagons and elected Joe Biden.
00:23:30.360 South Carolina's got a long history of it.
00:23:31.920 All right.
00:23:32.140 How about 1980, Republican side?
00:23:35.560 Who was it?
00:23:36.080 Was it Reagan?
00:23:36.760 Who wins South Carolina?
00:23:38.040 Reagan.
00:23:38.420 Reagan.
00:23:39.040 OK.
00:23:40.140 Generally speaking, if you win two of the first three.
00:23:44.300 You're the guy.
00:23:44.960 You're going to be the nominee.
00:23:46.740 So Reagan, that cycle in 1980, lost Iowa, but then won New Hampshire and South Carolina.
00:23:53.440 1988, who wins South Carolina?
00:23:56.000 88 was it Bush?
00:23:57.420 Bush, 41 with 49 percent.
00:23:59.920 And by the way, 80, Reagan wins South Carolina, 55 percent.
00:24:03.060 John Connolly, 30 percent.
00:24:04.960 George Herbert Walker Bush, 15 percent.
00:24:07.520 So he had a huge letdown that year.
00:24:08.900 Yeah.
00:24:09.920 Go back to 88, where Bush, 41, is Reagan's VP.
00:24:13.820 He wins with 49 percent.
00:24:16.080 Bob Dole, 21 percent.
00:24:17.800 Pat Robertson, 19 percent.
00:24:19.360 Jack Kemp, 11.
00:24:20.160 So again, South Carolina pivotally elects 41 as president, or is pivotal in that.
00:24:28.060 All right.
00:24:28.460 96.
00:24:29.460 Who wins the Republican primary?
00:24:31.980 96.
00:24:33.040 Who was it?
00:24:33.760 Bob Dole, 45 percent.
00:24:35.860 Pat Buchanan, 29 percent.
00:24:37.420 Steve Forbes, 13 percent.
00:24:38.720 Lamar Alexander, 10 percent.
00:24:39.920 Alan Keyes, 2 percent.
00:24:42.300 2000, who wins South Carolina?
00:24:44.680 Had to have been Bush.
00:24:45.740 George W. Bush.
00:24:46.380 Yeah, 53 percent.
00:24:48.200 John McGein, 42 percent.
00:24:50.620 Alan Keyes, 5 percent.
00:24:52.160 So, Bush wins Iowa.
00:24:54.600 This is in 2000.
00:24:56.080 Gets crushed in New Hampshire.
00:24:58.400 And comes back and wins South Carolina.
00:25:00.680 Goes on to win the nomination, get elected president.
00:25:02.860 There is often a connection between Iowa and South Carolina.
00:25:06.400 They are more conservative, generally speaking.
00:25:09.160 They're more evangelical, generally speaking.
00:25:11.280 Although, Iowa's a lot more evangelical than South Carolina.
00:25:14.240 But there are similarities between the two.
00:25:17.360 Uh, 2008.
00:25:19.760 The winner of South Carolina.
00:25:21.500 Who was it?
00:25:22.520 John McCain, 33 percent.
00:25:24.140 Huckabee, 30 percent.
00:25:26.000 So.
00:25:26.560 So, Huckabee was still hanging around.
00:25:28.320 Remember, Huckabee had won Iowa.
00:25:29.920 Yeah.
00:25:31.340 Loses New Hampshire.
00:25:32.580 And then South Carolina decides it.
00:25:34.460 33 percent to 30 percent.
00:25:36.740 That was neck and neck.
00:25:37.960 And, by the way, third place was Fred Thompson at 16 percent.
00:25:43.240 And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly.
00:25:45.820 He spent a lot of time there and a lot of money.
00:25:48.540 He did.
00:25:49.740 Mitt Romney, 15 percent.
00:25:51.160 Ron Paul, 4 percent.
00:25:52.240 Rudy Giuliani, 2 percent.
00:25:54.180 2012.
00:25:55.560 Newt Gingrich at 40 percent.
00:25:57.140 He wins.
00:25:57.740 Mitt Romney at 28 percent.
00:25:59.200 Santorum, 17 percent.
00:26:00.840 Ron Paul, 13.
00:26:01.700 So, Santorum had won Iowa, didn't get the bounce.
00:26:04.800 And Gingrich comes along and steals South Carolina, makes a hard push.
00:26:09.460 But then Romney ultimately wins later.
00:26:11.260 So, that was the year where it didn't play according to type, was 2012.
00:26:16.560 2016, Trump wins South Carolina, 33 percent.
00:26:23.820 And Rubio and I basically tie.
00:26:25.620 He takes 22 percent.
00:26:26.780 I take 22 percent.
00:26:28.180 He beats me by like 1,700 votes.
00:26:30.700 It was less than 2,000 votes.
00:26:32.900 I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside politics on what happens in
00:26:38.200 these primary states.
00:26:39.380 Don't forget, Senator Cruz and I will be back with you Wednesday morning with all of our
00:26:43.100 reaction to what happened in the primary in New Hampshire.
00:26:47.380 Plus, make sure you hit that subscribe or auto download button wherever you're listening
00:26:51.000 to this podcast.
00:26:52.160 And the Senate and I will see you back here tomorrow morning.
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