Verdict with Ted Cruz - January 23, 2024


Bonus Pod： WHY New Hampshire Matters...and Iowa...and South Carolina


Episode Stats

Length

26 minutes

Words per Minute

150.27052

Word Count

4,055

Sentence Count

563

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.500 Guaranteed human.
00:00:05.400 Senator Cruz and I sat down and did a really, really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire,
00:00:11.940 South Carolina, moving into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron DeSantis dropping out.
00:00:17.360 So what does history have to say about those states picking who's going to actually be
00:00:21.700 the president?
00:00:22.480 And what does it look like now moving forward with Donald Trump against Nikki Haley?
00:00:26.520 Here is our deep dive, especially as you're getting ready to see what happens in New
00:00:31.880 Hampshire.
00:00:32.500 It's Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz.
00:00:34.620 You know, I think it's interesting if you look at the history of the primaries, and I want
00:00:38.200 to do a little bit of a deep dive into these early state primaries, the role that they have
00:00:42.960 played.
00:00:43.400 And so let's start with Iowa.
00:00:44.640 The Iowa caucuses have played a very significant role.
00:00:48.380 Let's start on the Democrat side and go back to 1976.
00:00:52.760 1976, 1976, the Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus.
00:00:56.960 Do you know who it was?
00:00:57.620 I don't.
00:00:58.720 It was the governor of Georgia, an unknown candidate by the name of Jimmy Carter.
00:01:03.420 Really?
00:01:03.920 And the Iowa caucuses basically propelled Jimmy Carter to become president of the United
00:01:08.780 States.
00:01:09.280 And he went and he worked it.
00:01:11.060 He worked it on the ground.
00:01:12.420 There are 99 counties in Iowa.
00:01:14.300 He went and did grassroots events after grassroots event.
00:01:16.740 And Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal.
00:01:19.780 Without that, he doesn't become president.
00:01:24.460 You then look 1984.
00:01:28.460 So 1980, Carter's the incumbents of the caucus doesn't matter.
00:01:32.780 84 is the next open presidential race.
00:01:35.500 The winner of it was Walter Mondale.
00:01:38.100 49%.
00:01:38.620 So Mondale, Jimmy Carter's VP, wins a big victory in the Iowa caucus, goes on to be the nominee
00:01:45.080 and lose the general election.
00:01:46.320 Uh, 1988, the winner of the Iowa caucus was Dick Gephardt.
00:01:52.900 Now.
00:01:53.300 Over to caucus.
00:01:54.480 Dick Gephardt got 31%.
00:01:56.380 Paul Simon got 27%.
00:01:59.140 Michael Dukakis got 22%.
00:02:01.180 So it's tight.
00:02:02.420 Now, remember, you know, Gephardt was from Missouri.
00:02:05.100 Missouri is not that far from Iowa.
00:02:06.780 So there was a Midwestern.
00:02:08.900 Iowa has historically given some additional credence to Midwesterners.
00:02:13.480 And Dukakis was from Massachusetts.
00:02:15.980 So it was, uh, yeah, it was a hard match.
00:02:19.240 And so that was one where the winner did not win the nomination.
00:02:23.980 1992.
00:02:25.420 Who won the Democrat Iowa caucus in 92?
00:02:28.560 I'm going to guess.
00:02:29.360 Was it Bill Clinton?
00:02:30.200 No.
00:02:30.560 Okay.
00:02:30.820 Who was it?
00:02:31.920 Uh, in fact, Bill Clinton got 3%.
00:02:35.240 Really?
00:02:36.060 He got crushed.
00:02:36.820 The winner was Tom Harkin.
00:02:40.180 Yeah.
00:02:40.600 So Iowa didn't really matter because Harkin was a home state hero.
00:02:45.500 And so it basically, Iowa was written off, uh, in, in 92.
00:02:50.780 Um, 2000, what Democrat won?
00:02:54.060 Al Gore.
00:02:55.120 He got 63%.
00:02:56.360 He beat Bill Bradley by 37%.
00:02:58.620 So in 2000, the Iowa caucus winner won the Democrat nomination.
00:03:02.400 2004, John Kerry won.
00:03:06.740 He got 38%, beat John Edwards with 32%.
00:03:10.060 Yeah.
00:03:10.380 And that was a tight race.
00:03:11.580 That was a tight race.
00:03:12.720 And, and Kerry obviously went on to win the nomination, lose the general.
00:03:16.760 2008, the winner, Barack Obama.
00:03:20.420 Yep.
00:03:21.240 Uh, Barack Obama won with 38%.
00:03:23.280 He beat John Edwards.
00:03:24.420 Hillary was third in Iowa.
00:03:26.180 Um, 20, 2016, Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, but with 50% to Bernie's 49.
00:03:36.600 And it was a neck and neck photo finish.
00:03:38.900 So I remember that night.
00:03:40.200 That was an incredible night because no one had a clue what was going to happen.
00:03:43.440 And it was a, it was a dogfight in that democratic primary.
00:03:46.040 Like we hadn't seen in modern political history.
00:03:48.820 Uh, it, it was, and, and, and it was, it was neck and neck.
00:03:53.520 And then 2000, remember the Iowa Democrat caucus was a mess and you had, had Pete Buttigieg and
00:04:00.360 Bernie Sanders both coming out with 26%.
00:04:03.840 All right.
00:04:05.120 Republican side.
00:04:07.400 So conventional wisdom today is Iowa is more conservative and more evangelical.
00:04:15.100 There's certainly a very large evangelical population in Iowa.
00:04:17.980 What's interesting is that Iowa has not always played that role.
00:04:21.240 And I'm going to tell you in a minute, we moved to New Hampshire, New Hampshire has not
00:04:24.900 always played the role of the more moderate state.
00:04:27.320 And so over history, they've changed some.
00:04:30.920 So 1976 Republican primary who won Iowa in 1976.
00:04:38.340 I have no idea.
00:04:40.640 Gerald Ford, but he beat Reagan 45 to 43.
00:04:45.880 So it was close.
00:04:46.980 It was never Ford is the incumbent president.
00:04:49.240 Yeah.
00:04:49.440 So this is when Reagan is primarying the incumbent president and he comes incredibly close to
00:04:55.300 beating him, but Ford, the more moderate choice, narrowly wins Iowa in 76.
00:05:01.580 All right.
00:05:02.680 How about 1980?
00:05:05.080 So Reagan has...
00:05:06.200 I was going to say, how to be Reagan.
00:05:07.240 So Reagan has almost beaten Ford four years earlier.
00:05:11.420 So who wins Iowa in 80?
00:05:12.900 I would assume he would have just owned it there.
00:05:15.740 You would assume, but you would assume incorrectly.
00:05:17.680 Uh, the winner of Iowa in 1980 was George Herbert Walker Bush with 32%.
00:05:23.380 Reagan got 30.
00:05:25.140 So it's still tight.
00:05:26.020 It was tight, but again, so that's two elections in a row, 76 and 80.
00:05:30.700 The more moderate candidate beat the more conservative candidate in Iowa.
00:05:34.640 All right.
00:05:36.180 Fast forward, 84 was Reagan unopposed, uh, 88, the winner of Iowa, Bob Dole.
00:05:45.200 Now, again, as a Kansas guy, the, the Midwestern Dole had an advantage, but Iowa was consequential.
00:05:53.100 Do you remember who took second in 88 in Iowa?
00:05:58.120 Would it have been Bush?
00:05:59.720 No.
00:06:00.480 Who was it?
00:06:01.140 That's why, that's why it was notable.
00:06:02.580 Yeah.
00:06:03.360 It was Pat Robertson.
00:06:04.720 That's right.
00:06:05.680 Who ran as...
00:06:06.720 Yeah, the Christian conservative, that, that was, that was the evangelical.
00:06:10.600 He went hard in on evangelicals and it worked.
00:06:13.120 So Pat Robertson got 25%.
00:06:15.480 What was the mantra then?
00:06:16.940 I'm trying to remember.
00:06:17.580 What was the exact words?
00:06:18.520 It was, it was, it was, it, oh, it was something with Christian and it was the, the way that
00:06:23.500 he cast the vote that time.
00:06:24.980 And it was a huge moving block.
00:06:26.620 Do you remember that?
00:06:27.960 Uh, the Christian coalition.
00:06:29.600 Christian coalition.
00:06:29.960 But it was under that and there was something else he said and it was like, and it stuck with
00:06:33.740 people.
00:06:33.980 I'll think of it in a second, but it was big.
00:06:35.760 So Bush 41 was, was third at 19%.
00:06:39.060 Jack Kemp with 11%.
00:06:40.700 Pete DuPont was 7%.
00:06:42.400 So that, that was 88.
00:06:44.460 All right.
00:06:45.700 Look, fast forward to 96.
00:06:47.580 The winner, the winner of Iowa 96 was Bob Dole.
00:06:52.700 26%.
00:06:53.620 So he's a Midwesterner, but again, quite moderate, but in second place, you remember who was second
00:07:01.220 place?
00:07:01.660 I have no idea.
00:07:02.760 Pat Buchanan.
00:07:04.000 Yeah.
00:07:05.260 23%.
00:07:05.660 So almost beats Bob Dole, uh, in Iowa that year.
00:07:10.900 And that, that became a big, big deal.
00:07:14.520 Um, all right.
00:07:16.540 2000.
00:07:17.120 Who wins Iowa?
00:07:19.820 2000.
00:07:21.280 Iowa.
00:07:21.860 I'm trying to think of an underdog.
00:07:23.200 Cause it seems like they're going with the underdog.
00:07:24.800 Who was it?
00:07:26.060 George W.
00:07:26.700 Bush.
00:07:27.360 Okay.
00:07:27.620 Big victory, big victory with evangelicals.
00:07:30.340 Remember his dad had won it narrowly, had beaten Reagan narrowly.
00:07:34.600 Um, and George W.
00:07:36.180 Bush had a lot more credibility with evangelicals than his dad did.
00:07:39.020 And he spent a lot of time.
00:07:40.800 Um, I was on that campaign winning Iowa was a big deal.
00:07:44.480 Who came in second there that year?
00:07:45.920 Steve Forbes.
00:07:46.700 That's right.
00:07:47.200 So Bush wins Iowa with 41%.
00:07:50.420 Steve Forbes, 31%.
00:07:52.160 Alan Keyes, 14%.
00:07:54.460 Gary Bauer, 9%.
00:07:56.480 John McCain, 5%.
00:07:58.480 And John McCain basically wrote Iowa off.
00:08:00.380 He said, I'm not competing there.
00:08:02.340 And Orrin Hatch, 1%.
00:08:04.200 2008.
00:08:07.180 Next open seat, the winner of Iowa was Mike Huckabee.
00:08:10.860 Yep.
00:08:11.040 That's the, 2008's where you started to see the sort of evangelical conservative winning.
00:08:18.200 So Huckabee wins with 34%.
00:08:20.000 Mitt Romney, second with 25%.
00:08:22.140 Fred Thompson at 13%.
00:08:24.220 John McCain, 13%.
00:08:26.300 Ron Paul, 10%.
00:08:27.980 And there was a whole libertarian thing.
00:08:29.700 Ron Paul's 10% was significant.
00:08:32.600 Rudy Giuliani with 4%.
00:08:34.640 And Duncan Hunter with 1%.
00:08:36.120 2012.
00:08:37.440 So the winner in 2012 was Rick Santorum with 25%.
00:08:43.940 But he basically tied with Mitt Romney at 25%.
00:08:47.980 Remember, they didn't declare a winner.
00:08:49.400 Yeah.
00:08:49.900 That's right.
00:08:50.360 They couldn't figure it out.
00:08:51.880 And people were frustrated over that because it was like, are you cooking the books here?
00:08:55.060 Why are you not saying someone won?
00:08:56.380 Well, and that ended up hurting Santorum a lot because...
00:09:00.380 You couldn't claim victory.
00:09:01.320 You won to claim victory.
00:09:02.420 The benefit of winning Iowa, one of the benefits, typically Iowa...
00:09:07.380 Whittles down the field.
00:09:09.880 It eliminates candidates.
00:09:12.020 The sort of conventional wisdom is there are three passes out of Iowa.
00:09:15.280 The top three come out.
00:09:17.480 And typically the winner gets a bounce.
00:09:21.960 Santorum did not get a bounce.
00:09:23.720 And obviously Mitt Romney ended up going on to win the nomination.
00:09:28.520 2016.
00:09:29.820 Yours truly.
00:09:31.740 I got 28% in Iowa.
00:09:33.600 Won the Iowa caucus.
00:09:34.780 Donald Trump got 24%.
00:09:36.480 Rubio got 23%.
00:09:38.260 So Rubio almost beat Trump in Iowa that year.
00:09:41.860 Ben Carson got 9%.
00:09:43.560 Rand Paul 5%.
00:09:44.780 Jeb Bush 3%.
00:09:46.040 Carly Fiorina 2%.
00:09:47.960 And others 7% between them.
00:09:49.880 And then you look at this year, Donald Trump, 51%.
00:09:56.160 DeSantis, 21%.
00:09:57.680 So Trump wins by 30 points.
00:10:00.020 So we were saying, you know, traditionally today people think of New Hampshire more moderate.
00:10:05.100 Well, that hasn't always been the case.
00:10:07.080 So let's take the Democrat side, first of all.
00:10:10.380 Democrat side, 1976.
00:10:12.220 Who wins New Hampshire?
00:10:14.440 Who?
00:10:14.960 Jimmy Carter.
00:10:16.160 So Jimmy Carter wins.
00:10:17.260 I win New Hampshire.
00:10:17.760 Back to back, it's over.
00:10:18.840 He's the nominee.
00:10:19.440 He's the president.
00:10:19.980 You win both, it's game over.
00:10:23.840 Mo Udall was second with 23%.
00:10:25.900 Jimmy Carter had 29%.
00:10:27.600 1980.
00:10:30.340 Now, 1980 is interesting.
00:10:32.060 Jimmy Carter is the incumbent president.
00:10:34.540 But he gets a very strong primary from Ted Kennedy.
00:10:37.900 Carter wins.
00:10:39.260 But he wins New Hampshire with 48%.
00:10:41.560 And Ted Kennedy gets 38%.
00:10:43.220 Now, obviously, Kennedy's from Massachusetts, too.
00:10:45.480 So you have the neighboring effect.
00:10:46.880 But that was, and Jerry Brown got 10% in that race.
00:10:50.220 Wow.
00:10:52.480 84.
00:10:54.420 Who wins in 84?
00:10:56.480 1984.
00:10:57.980 The Democrat primary.
00:10:59.620 I have no idea.
00:11:00.900 Gary Hart.
00:11:01.800 Really?
00:11:02.480 Senator from Colorado.
00:11:04.500 He gets 39%.
00:11:06.140 Walter Mondale, the VP who goes on to be the nominee, gets just 29%.
00:11:10.280 All right.
00:11:13.640 1988.
00:11:14.500 The winner is Michael Dukakis, the neighboring governor.
00:11:18.080 He gets 36%.
00:11:19.820 Dick Gephardt, who just won Iowa, gets 20%.
00:11:22.460 1992.
00:11:24.840 Okay.
00:11:25.300 Who wins New Hampshire?
00:11:27.260 In 92.
00:11:27.880 In 92 on the Democratic side.
00:11:30.020 I'm trying to remember who all was in that race in 92.
00:11:33.080 Who was it?
00:11:34.180 The winner is Paul Songhus.
00:11:35.960 Okay.
00:11:36.220 I'm glad.
00:11:36.840 I'm actually glad I didn't know that one.
00:11:38.860 33%.
00:11:39.700 Second place is Bill Clinton at 25%.
00:11:44.080 And remember, look, Bill Clinton in Iowa had gotten 3%.
00:11:47.780 He got crushed in Iowa.
00:11:48.860 Yeah.
00:11:49.300 And then after that, the whole Jennifer Flower story came out.
00:11:53.200 So he's getting crushed on that, too.
00:11:55.440 And Bill Clinton turned a second place finish in New Hampshire with 25% into saying the comeback kid.
00:12:02.960 Yeah.
00:12:03.220 And that second place propelled him to the presidency.
00:12:07.200 Year 2000, what Democrat wins?
00:12:10.140 Al Gore.
00:12:10.880 But Al Gore beats Bill Bradley 50% to 46%.
00:12:15.140 So very close primary.
00:12:17.100 Bill Bradley's from New Jersey.
00:12:18.520 Yep.
00:12:18.720 So you've got the Northeastern thing, but it was interesting how neck and neck and New Hampshire has been pretty good at picking the nominee.
00:12:26.460 There was also that eight-year fatigue of Clinton, right?
00:12:29.020 And that actually hurt, I think, Al Gore at the end.
00:12:31.280 Because if I remember correctly, Al Gore's campaign did not utilize Bill Clinton.
00:12:36.220 They kind of separated.
00:12:37.300 No, they hid him.
00:12:38.140 Yeah.
00:12:38.420 They did not want him around the campaign.
00:12:39.820 Bill Clinton had been impeached.
00:12:40.500 You had Monica Lewinsky.
00:12:41.620 I mean, they ran away from Bill Clinton.
00:12:43.660 Yeah.
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00:13:13.840 You look at 2004, the winner of New Hampshire, John Kerry with 38%.
00:13:21.600 Second place, Howard Dean, the governor of neighboring Vermont, with 26%.
00:13:27.440 2008, who wins New Hampshire in 2008 in the Democratic Party?
00:13:32.420 Was it Obama or was it Clinton?
00:13:33.900 Hillary Clinton.
00:13:34.380 Hillary Clinton.
00:13:34.780 39%.
00:13:35.580 Obama gets 36%.
00:13:37.140 John Edwards, 17%.
00:13:38.500 Bill Richardson, 5%.
00:13:39.480 Dennis Kucinich, 1%.
00:13:41.600 You go to 2016, the winner of New Hampshire was Bernie Sanders with 60%.
00:13:48.840 I remember that.
00:13:49.860 Feel the burn.
00:13:50.600 Hillary Clinton, 38%.
00:13:52.320 And then in 2020, the winner of New Hampshire again, Bernie Sanders, 26%.
00:13:57.420 Pete Buttigieg, 24%.
00:13:59.240 Klobuchar, 20%.
00:14:00.360 Elizabeth Warren, 9%.
00:14:02.420 Joe Biden, 8%.
00:14:03.620 Tom Steyer, 4%.
00:14:05.160 Tulsi Gabbard, 3%.
00:14:06.740 And Andrew Yang, 3%.
00:14:08.340 Go back to Joe Biden just for a second.
00:14:09.800 What was that number again for him?
00:14:11.780 8%.
00:14:12.180 And he still became president of the United States of America.
00:14:14.860 Yeah, 8%.
00:14:15.500 Wow.
00:14:16.820 And we'll get to that in a moment because there's a lot to say.
00:14:19.260 All right, let's talk about Republicans in New Hampshire.
00:14:22.900 All right.
00:14:23.340 So we talked about 1976, that Gerald Ford narrowly wins Iowa.
00:14:28.960 What do you think happens in New Hampshire?
00:14:31.720 76, it's got to be Reagan.
00:14:33.880 So again, Gerald Ford narrowly wins New Hampshire.
00:14:37.880 Ford gets 50%.
00:14:39.100 Reagan gets 49%.
00:14:41.040 Okay, so he kept the momentum.
00:14:43.540 All right, 1980.
00:14:45.640 So 1980, remember who won in Iowa?
00:14:48.580 That was George Herbert Walker Bush.
00:14:50.700 We get to New Hampshire.
00:14:51.640 Did Reagan pull that one off?
00:14:54.240 Reagan wins New Hampshire with 50% of the vote.
00:14:58.040 George Herbert Walker Bush, 23%.
00:15:00.120 So that's when it flipped and the campaign got interested.
00:15:02.600 And by the way, remember the sort of popular narrative today of New Hampshire is more moderate.
00:15:07.600 Well, you look at that cycle.
00:15:09.300 It was not.
00:15:09.660 The more moderate candidate won Iowa and the more conservative candidate won New Hampshire.
00:15:14.180 Now that was also, Reagan had a singular breakout moment where he's in the middle of the debate,
00:15:19.820 a debate that ultimately he had paid for.
00:15:23.360 And the moderator, there was an argument about whether additional candidates who hadn't made the debate stage should be allowed to debate,
00:15:30.620 and Reagan wanted them to.
00:15:31.760 And the moderator tried to say no and said, turn off Reagan's microphone.
00:15:39.360 And Reagan leans forward famously and says, Mr. Breen, I paid for this microphone.
00:15:45.720 And it was seen at the time as a level of presidential leadership.
00:15:51.500 And he had, in fact, paid for the microphone.
00:15:54.600 He was funding the whole debate.
00:15:57.040 All right.
00:15:58.640 Fast forward to 88.
00:16:00.220 Who wins in 88?
00:16:01.860 It's got to be Bush.
00:16:03.520 George Herbert Walker Bush, 38%.
00:16:05.780 Bob Dole, 28%.
00:16:07.660 And so New Hampshire, one of the interesting patterns about New Hampshire, it's a state that has tended to reward runner-ups.
00:16:17.020 So remember, New Hampshire gave it to Reagan over Bush, 41, and then eight years later, gives it to Bush, 41, over Bob Dole.
00:16:28.600 All right.
00:16:29.400 You go from there to 1996.
00:16:33.840 Who wins New Hampshire in 1996?
00:16:36.560 96 New Hampshire has got to be, is it Bush?
00:16:42.140 Nope.
00:16:42.660 Who is it?
00:16:44.260 Pat Buchanan.
00:16:45.540 Oh, okay.
00:16:46.140 Buchanan wins New Hampshire, 27%.
00:16:49.880 Bob Dole, 26%.
00:16:51.520 Lamar Alexander, 23%.
00:16:53.260 Steve Forbes, 12%.
00:16:54.820 Dick Lugar, 5%.
00:16:55.880 Alan Keyes, 3%.
00:16:57.100 Maury Taylor, 1%.
00:16:58.720 Oh, 96.
00:17:00.200 Got it.
00:17:00.440 Okay.
00:17:01.320 2000.
00:17:02.280 Who wins New Hampshire in 2000?
00:17:04.480 So 2000, that's where I was, I thought you said, so Bush.
00:17:07.840 I would have said Bush then in 2000.
00:17:09.500 Nope.
00:17:11.280 2000, I remember, I was on this campaign.
00:17:13.140 And I remember, well, Bush had just won Iowa decisively.
00:17:17.320 John McCain wins New Hampshire.
00:17:18.980 49% to George W.
00:17:22.040 Bush is 30%.
00:17:23.560 Steve Forbes, 13%.
00:17:25.680 Alan Keyes, 6%.
00:17:26.860 Now, I got to say, that, it was a 19-point victory.
00:17:30.300 Kicked our teeth in.
00:17:31.980 It's the best thing that ever happened to the Bush 2000 campaign.
00:17:34.780 Because the campaign in Austin, at times, would get overconfident and run entitled and be
00:17:42.640 afraid to run hard.
00:17:44.480 And after Iowa, all of those instincts were in full display.
00:17:49.200 Getting our teeth kicked in in New Hampshire in 2000 made the campaign actually get out and
00:17:54.760 fight.
00:17:55.560 And it made it ultimately, ironically, losing New Hampshire helped propel Bush 43 on to win.
00:18:02.600 2008, the winner of New Hampshire, John McCain.
00:18:09.080 John McCain, again.
00:18:09.940 Again.
00:18:11.300 37% Mitt Romney, 32%.
00:18:13.940 So he's in second.
00:18:14.980 Huckabee, 11%.
00:18:16.160 So Huckabee's won Iowa, gets crushed in New Hampshire.
00:18:21.020 Rudy Giuliani, 8%.
00:18:22.700 Ron Paul, 8%.
00:18:23.980 Fred Thompson, 1%.
00:18:25.420 2012, the winner of New Hampshire, Mitt Romney.
00:18:29.860 Yeah.
00:18:30.000 He was second four years earlier.
00:18:32.020 And there's a pattern.
00:18:33.520 New Hampshire tends to like people who were second in the previous cycle.
00:18:37.620 Mitt Romney, 39%.
00:18:39.460 Ron Paul, 23%.
00:18:42.740 John Huntsman, 17%.
00:18:44.460 Rick Santorum, who had just won Iowa, 9%.
00:18:47.840 Newt Gingrich, 9%.
00:18:49.220 And then 2016, Donald Trump, with a big victory, 35%.
00:18:55.360 So he loses Iowa, goes on to win New Hampshire.
00:18:58.380 New Hampshire played a pivotal part in electing Trump the first time.
00:19:02.700 Kasich was second.
00:19:03.740 I was third in New Hampshire.
00:19:05.780 So Trump won a significant victory.
00:19:08.360 Now, we see in modern times, New Hampshire tends not to like the winner of the Iowa caucuses.
00:19:14.300 It's almost like they want to say, hold on, we started here and we're our own people, we're our own place.
00:19:19.100 And look, part of the reason is, as the Iowa caucuses has gotten more evangelical, New Hampshire is not a very evangelical state.
00:19:27.900 There's just not a large evangelical population there.
00:19:30.800 It's kind of flinty New Englander.
00:19:33.000 There is a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant.
00:19:38.260 Ron Paul has done well over the years.
00:19:40.860 My supporters in New Hampshire had a lot of libertarians who were backing me in New Hampshire.
00:19:45.600 But it's a very different state.
00:19:48.740 And there's also a populist strain.
00:19:51.620 And so understand, it's not—there is, one, the sort of faith and religiosity, the sort of evangelical question.
00:19:58.180 There is, secondly, the ideological conservative versus moderate.
00:20:03.900 But there's, thirdly, the populist.
00:20:06.300 And remember, New Hampshire is a state that Pat Buchanan won.
00:20:09.620 Yeah.
00:20:10.300 And Pat Buchanan, in many ways, and then Ross Perot, there is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist.
00:20:23.180 And so New Hampshire combines all of those.
00:20:26.600 And the reason Trump in 16 did so well in New Hampshire is he tapped into that same Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot populist movement in New Hampshire.
00:20:38.780 All right.
00:20:39.480 Third state, South Carolina, because the three, with some frequency, those three states picked the president.
00:20:46.800 All right.
00:20:49.240 Democrat side.
00:20:51.400 1988, the winner of the Democrat caucus, Jesse Jackson.
00:20:56.460 55 percent, Al Gore 17 percent, Dukakis 6 percent, Gephardt 2 percent.
00:21:02.820 So Dukakis goes on to win, but he gets crushed in South Carolina.
00:21:06.760 Now, the primary vote in South Carolina on the Democrat side is very heavily African-American.
00:21:14.720 Yeah.
00:21:14.840 So Jesse Jackson wins a big, big victory, but it doesn't decide the winner that year.
00:21:21.800 1992, the winner of South Carolina.
00:21:25.600 Bill Clinton.
00:21:26.520 Bill Clinton with 63 percent.
00:21:29.540 Paul Songus, who had just won New Hampshire, gets 18 percent.
00:21:33.780 Tom Harkin, 7 percent.
00:21:35.440 Jerry Brown, 6 percent.
00:21:36.820 So Bill Clinton's second place in New Hampshire, the comeback kid, sets him up for a stunning victory in South Carolina.
00:21:46.220 That ends up giving him the nomination and ultimately electing him president.
00:21:53.060 Why is it?
00:21:53.660 2000, Al Gore with 92 percent.
00:21:57.780 So Gore in the Southern.
00:21:58.580 Bill Bradley gets 2 percent.
00:21:59.860 So it's just a Southern Southern thing.
00:22:03.740 2004.
00:22:05.540 Who won South Carolina in 2004, the Democrat primary?
00:22:08.380 I have no idea.
00:22:09.180 Who was it?
00:22:09.920 John Edwards.
00:22:11.260 Oh, that's yeah.
00:22:12.540 That's right.
00:22:13.280 He was from North Carolina.
00:22:14.260 He was a neighbor.
00:22:15.180 46 percent.
00:22:16.620 John Kerry, 30 percent.
00:22:18.000 Al Sharpton, 10 percent.
00:22:19.460 Wesley Clark, 7 percent.
00:22:21.080 Howard Dean, 5 percent.
00:22:22.260 Joe Lieberman, 2 percent.
00:22:23.400 I remember that change Super Tuesday.
00:22:25.380 And there was a lot of questions about Super Tuesday.
00:22:27.300 Who was going to do well after Edwards did so well?
00:22:29.460 Yeah.
00:22:31.020 2008, the winner of South Carolina, Barack Obama.
00:22:34.720 Yeah.
00:22:35.120 So for the Democrats, Obama wins Iowa, South Carolina.
00:22:39.880 Hillary wins New Hampshire.
00:22:41.220 Obama ends up winning.
00:22:44.600 2016, who wins South Carolina?
00:22:47.900 Who was it?
00:22:48.760 Hillary Clinton was 73 percent.
00:22:51.000 Bernie Sanders, just 26 percent.
00:22:53.280 So Bernie did great, had won New Hampshire, was in a dominant position.
00:22:56.880 South Carolina, boom.
00:22:58.200 Welcome to reality, right?
00:22:59.640 2020, the winner of South Carolina.
00:23:03.320 Who was it?
00:23:04.280 Joe Biden, 48 percent.
00:23:06.680 Bernie Sanders, 20 percent.
00:23:08.420 Interesting.
00:23:08.820 So understand, in 2020, Bernie had won Iowa and New Hampshire.
00:23:14.180 Yeah.
00:23:15.180 And then South Carolina came in and the African-American vote rallied.
00:23:19.760 Bernie has had trouble getting the African-American vote historically.
00:23:22.780 Yeah.
00:23:22.940 And for the Democrats, South Carolina, they circled the wagons and elected Joe Biden.
00:23:30.360 South Carolina's got a long history of it.
00:23:31.920 All right.
00:23:32.140 How about 1980, Republican side?
00:23:35.560 Who was it?
00:23:36.080 Was it Reagan?
00:23:36.760 Who wins South Carolina?
00:23:38.040 Reagan.
00:23:38.420 Reagan.
00:23:39.040 OK.
00:23:40.140 Generally speaking, if you win two of the first three.
00:23:44.300 You're the guy.
00:23:44.960 You're going to be the nominee.
00:23:46.740 So Reagan, that cycle in 1980, lost Iowa, but then won New Hampshire and South Carolina.
00:23:53.440 1988, who wins South Carolina?
00:23:56.000 88 was it Bush?
00:23:57.420 Bush, 41 with 49 percent.
00:23:59.920 And by the way, 80, Reagan wins South Carolina, 55 percent.
00:24:03.060 John Connolly, 30 percent.
00:24:04.960 George Herbert Walker Bush, 15 percent.
00:24:07.520 So he had a huge letdown that year.
00:24:08.900 Yeah.
00:24:09.920 Go back to 88, where Bush, 41, is Reagan's VP.
00:24:13.820 He wins with 49 percent.
00:24:16.080 Bob Dole, 21 percent.
00:24:17.800 Pat Robertson, 19 percent.
00:24:19.360 Jack Kemp, 11.
00:24:20.160 So again, South Carolina pivotally elects 41 as president, or is pivotal in that.
00:24:28.060 All right.
00:24:28.460 96.
00:24:29.460 Who wins the Republican primary?
00:24:31.980 96.
00:24:33.040 Who was it?
00:24:33.760 Bob Dole, 45 percent.
00:24:35.860 Pat Buchanan, 29 percent.
00:24:37.420 Steve Forbes, 13 percent.
00:24:38.720 Lamar Alexander, 10 percent.
00:24:39.920 Alan Keyes, 2 percent.
00:24:42.300 2000, who wins South Carolina?
00:24:44.680 Had to have been Bush.
00:24:45.740 George W. Bush.
00:24:46.380 Yeah, 53 percent.
00:24:48.200 John McGein, 42 percent.
00:24:50.620 Alan Keyes, 5 percent.
00:24:52.160 So, Bush wins Iowa.
00:24:54.600 This is in 2000.
00:24:56.080 Gets crushed in New Hampshire.
00:24:58.400 And comes back and wins South Carolina.
00:25:00.680 Goes on to win the nomination, get elected president.
00:25:02.860 There is often a connection between Iowa and South Carolina.
00:25:06.400 They are more conservative, generally speaking.
00:25:09.160 They're more evangelical, generally speaking.
00:25:11.280 Although, Iowa's a lot more evangelical than South Carolina.
00:25:14.240 But there are similarities between the two.
00:25:17.360 Uh, 2008.
00:25:19.760 The winner of South Carolina.
00:25:21.500 Who was it?
00:25:22.520 John McCain, 33 percent.
00:25:24.140 Huckabee, 30 percent.
00:25:26.000 So.
00:25:26.560 So, Huckabee was still hanging around.
00:25:28.320 Remember, Huckabee had won Iowa.
00:25:29.920 Yeah.
00:25:31.340 Loses New Hampshire.
00:25:32.580 And then South Carolina decides it.
00:25:34.460 33 percent to 30 percent.
00:25:36.740 That was neck and neck.
00:25:37.960 And, by the way, third place was Fred Thompson at 16 percent.
00:25:43.240 And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly.
00:25:45.820 He spent a lot of time there and a lot of money.
00:25:48.540 He did.
00:25:49.740 Mitt Romney, 15 percent.
00:25:51.160 Ron Paul, 4 percent.
00:25:52.240 Rudy Giuliani, 2 percent.
00:25:54.180 2012.
00:25:55.560 Newt Gingrich at 40 percent.
00:25:57.140 He wins.
00:25:57.740 Mitt Romney at 28 percent.
00:25:59.200 Santorum, 17 percent.
00:26:00.840 Ron Paul, 13.
00:26:01.700 So, Santorum had won Iowa, didn't get the bounce.
00:26:04.800 And Gingrich comes along and steals South Carolina, makes a hard push.
00:26:09.460 But then Romney ultimately wins later.
00:26:11.260 So, that was the year where it didn't play according to type, was 2012.
00:26:16.560 2016, Trump wins South Carolina, 33 percent.
00:26:23.820 And Rubio and I basically tie.
00:26:25.620 He takes 22 percent.
00:26:26.780 I take 22 percent.
00:26:28.180 He beats me by like 1,700 votes.
00:26:30.700 It was less than 2,000 votes.
00:26:32.900 I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside politics on what happens in
00:26:38.200 these primary states.
00:26:39.380 Don't forget, Senator Cruz and I will be back with you Wednesday morning with all of our
00:26:43.100 reaction to what happened in the primary in New Hampshire.
00:26:47.380 Plus, make sure you hit that subscribe or auto download button wherever you're listening
00:26:51.000 to this podcast.
00:26:52.160 And the Senate and I will see you back here tomorrow morning.
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