Verdict with Ted Cruz - December 20, 2024


Chaos & Shutdown： What it All Means & What Comes Next


Episode Stats

Length

40 minutes

Words per Minute

169.56294

Word Count

6,827

Sentence Count

538

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.580 Guaranteed human.
00:00:04.400 Welcome. It is Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you.
00:00:08.560 And Senator, you're still stuck in Washington, D.C. as we speak.
00:00:13.500 Usually everybody's going home right now, but it's midnight and you're still there.
00:00:19.540 Well, it is 11.32 p.m. right now, Thursday night.
00:00:22.840 I am usually home in Texas, getting ready to go to bed in my own bed with my wife and kids.
00:00:27.900 I am in Washington, D.C. Right now, it looks like there's a very good chance we may be in Washington, D.C.
00:00:34.180 on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.
00:00:36.560 We could be in D.C. on Christmas Day.
00:00:39.320 We are 24 hours away from a government shutdown.
00:00:42.820 At this point, the path ahead appears very uncertain.
00:00:47.220 We're going to break that down.
00:00:48.260 We're going to explain what is going on, what is a continuing resolution, what does this mean,
00:00:52.140 and how does this likely get resolved.
00:00:54.220 We're going to explain that coming up.
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00:02:41.420 All right, so this is an interesting conversation, Senator, about what's happening in Washington.
00:02:46.340 And look, there's the politics of it that everybody's obsessed with and pointing fingers.
00:02:53.140 I love doing this show because I think we can look at it a little bit differently.
00:02:57.160 I want people to understand, starting off, with what is actually being fought over, and that is a CR.
00:03:04.420 Can you explain in layman's terms what a CR is, why we keep having these over Christmastime,
00:03:11.860 and is this the normal way that government does work, or is this abnormal?
00:03:16.500 Yeah, look, it's a very good question.
00:03:18.840 People are very confused about it.
00:03:20.200 And let me do my best to explain, number one, what this fight is about,
00:03:24.560 and then some basic principles to think about it,
00:03:27.200 because there are a lot of people who are right now yelling,
00:03:31.140 but it's hard to understand what's going on.
00:03:34.020 So for the federal government to operate, Congress has to appropriate funds.
00:03:39.360 Appropriating funds is voting to spend money.
00:03:41.660 Unless Congress appropriates funds, money can't be spent.
00:03:46.760 Now there are three principal ways money gets appropriated.
00:03:51.460 The first, and the best one, is Congress actually passing appropriation bills.
00:03:56.520 Through the regular order, through the process of legislating,
00:04:00.340 there are typically 13 appropriations bills for each of the major cabinet areas and subject matters.
00:04:07.120 And the way it should operate is Congress takes up an appropriation bill,
00:04:11.420 the House passes it, the Senate passes it, the President signs it.
00:04:14.340 That's the way it normally works.
00:04:15.760 It almost never works that way anymore,
00:04:18.160 especially when you have what we have now, which is divided government.
00:04:21.300 We have right now a Republican House, barely, a very, very small Republican majority in the House.
00:04:28.060 We have a Democrat Senate and a Democrat President.
00:04:30.520 And so as a result, appropriations bills will not pass,
00:04:34.360 and they will not pass because the Republican House and the Democrat Senate fundamentally disagree
00:04:38.720 on what should be in those appropriation bills.
00:04:41.380 There's a second way you fund the government,
00:04:43.800 and that's through what's called an omnibus, or sometimes you call it a minibus.
00:04:47.840 Basically what that is is a bunch of appropriation bills jammed together.
00:04:51.800 So instead of 13 separate bills, you can get an omnibus would be all 13.
00:04:57.840 A minibus is sometimes, say, four, five, six of them.
00:05:01.140 But it is a specific appropriation for a portion of government.
00:05:04.100 That is frequently how things are done, all crammed together.
00:05:07.980 Again, we can't get agreement.
00:05:09.680 Doing it in divided government is very difficult,
00:05:12.160 and I will point out that Joe Biden and the Democrats are providing zero leadership
00:05:15.700 to do anything other than embracing radical positions
00:05:19.120 that, of course, Republicans in the House aren't going to agree with.
00:05:22.400 So the third way, and there are really only three,
00:05:25.040 is what's called a continuing resolution.
00:05:27.600 So a continuing resolution typically does not specify how money will be appropriated.
00:05:33.500 It simply says, what we're doing now, let's continue going forward.
00:05:38.180 And a continuing resolution is typically for a set period of time.
00:05:43.640 A continuing resolution is usually abbreviated a CR.
00:05:47.720 And a CR basically said, a continuing resolution basically says,
00:05:50.660 what we're spending today, keep spending tomorrow.
00:05:52.800 And you sometimes will get a, you can get a long-term CR,
00:05:57.140 like you could get, say, a year-long CR that says, for the next year,
00:06:00.220 we're just going to spend what we're spending right now.
00:06:02.440 You can get a short-term CR.
00:06:04.140 Sometimes CRs are as short as a day or two or a week or more.
00:06:08.440 Now, why is this fight happening?
00:06:10.260 This fight is happening because at midnight, Friday night,
00:06:14.860 funding for the government expires.
00:06:18.060 And that was set in the last funding battle.
00:06:21.320 Congress funded it through midnight, Friday night.
00:06:24.880 That means at 12.01 a.m. on Saturday, funding for the government will expire.
00:06:29.680 Now, if we get to 12.01 a.m., and I got to say, sitting here right now,
00:06:33.620 that seems like a very likely outcome,
00:06:35.700 that we're going to get to 12.01 without this being resolved.
00:06:38.600 The result will be a quote-unquote government shutdown.
00:06:42.400 Now, what does a government shutdown mean?
00:06:45.000 Well, that phrase is overstated because much of government does not shut down.
00:06:50.780 Number one, mandatory spending.
00:06:53.160 Mandatory spending is government spending that is written,
00:06:55.520 that is automatically spent, that doesn't need to be appropriated.
00:06:58.980 Mandatory spending is not affected.
00:07:00.580 What does that mean?
00:07:01.080 It means Social Security checks will go out regardless.
00:07:03.800 It means Medicare will go out regardless.
00:07:06.100 It means Medicaid will go out regardless.
00:07:08.020 It means anything that is written as mandatory spending happens regardless because you don't need appropriations.
00:07:16.240 That's just written to automatically be spent.
00:07:18.700 What else does it mean?
00:07:20.220 Well, if you have a government shutdown,
00:07:22.200 it is existing law that even in the case of a shutdown,
00:07:26.120 when Congress has not appropriated funds,
00:07:28.840 essential services continue.
00:07:31.000 So, for example, if at 12.01 a.m. on Friday we have a government shutdown,
00:07:37.260 the military is not going to suddenly cease to operate.
00:07:39.980 We have soldiers and sailors and airmen and marines who are deployed in harm's way.
00:07:45.620 The military is the very definition of essential services,
00:07:49.380 so they'll continue to defend this nation.
00:07:51.920 It means there are a host of positions throughout government that are deemed essential.
00:07:57.720 And, by the way, that's decided typically agency by agency.
00:08:02.180 It is up to each agency to decide which ones of their employees are essential.
00:08:10.620 At some cabinet departments, you take a cabinet department like the Commerce Department,
00:08:15.880 historically you have 70% or more of the employees that are deemed non-essential.
00:08:20.440 If you're deemed non-essential when there's a government shutdown, you stay home.
00:08:23.520 You don't go to work.
00:08:24.260 You don't do anything.
00:08:26.060 And, by the way, typically all government employees stop being paid.
00:08:32.240 So one of the consequences of a shutdown is if you're a federal government employee,
00:08:36.380 your paycheck doesn't come.
00:08:38.220 Now, sometimes Congress will make exceptions.
00:08:41.940 So, for example, in past shutdowns,
00:08:44.360 we have made exceptions with some frequency for active duty military.
00:08:48.980 But that actually takes Congress moving in and legislating and saying,
00:08:51.740 you know what?
00:08:52.620 We're going to pay our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines.
00:08:56.440 But if Congress doesn't act, they don't get paid.
00:08:59.320 In the last big shutdown we had when Trump was president,
00:09:03.080 I went to the Senate floor and fought to pay Coast Guardsmen.
00:09:06.820 Look, the Coast Guard was saving people who were drowning.
00:09:10.440 They were guarding our border.
00:09:12.260 They were working.
00:09:13.080 And yet they weren't being paid.
00:09:14.420 And the Democrats stood up and objected to paying Coast Guardsmen during the shutdown.
00:09:18.900 So the basic principle is the vast majority of federal government employees don't get paid during a shutdown.
00:09:28.260 And, by the way, if you're a young enlisted man,
00:09:30.900 I mean, you might need, like, your paycheck to pay your rent next month.
00:09:35.960 You might need your paycheck to pay your food.
00:09:38.800 Like, many of these government employees are not wealthy and they are living paycheck to paycheck.
00:09:43.260 So having the paycheck stop puts real burdens, particularly on the low-to-median income federal workers.
00:09:50.300 On top of that, when the shutdown ends, the federal workers all get paid.
00:09:56.840 They get paid back pay.
00:09:57.920 So what we end up doing is having a significant chunk of federal workers not work for a period of time.
00:10:04.260 And then they don't get paid during that period of time.
00:10:06.800 And then after the fact, they get paid on the back end.
00:10:08.880 So we waste a bunch of government money.
00:10:11.880 That's what's at stake.
00:10:13.100 Now, how do we think through this fight?
00:10:15.320 What does it mean?
00:10:15.840 I'm going to suggest four key principles that are important.
00:10:21.680 I want to start with one that almost no one talking about this is talking about, but it's a very simple one.
00:10:28.280 Count to 218.
00:10:30.560 I want to repeat that, Ben.
00:10:32.380 Count to 218.
00:10:35.120 218 is a majority of the House of Representatives.
00:10:37.980 The House of Representatives has 435 representatives.
00:10:41.120 218 is half of it.
00:10:42.580 Unless you have absences or vacancies, nothing can pass the House without 218 votes.
00:10:50.160 So we have seen there have been two different attempts so far by House leadership to pass a CR, a continuing resolution.
00:10:59.020 The first attempt was a continuing resolution that extended until the middle of March.
00:11:03.920 And it included a variety of different programs.
00:11:06.820 Now, I want you to understand, I want you to imagine for a second, Ben, that you wake up tomorrow morning and your name is Mike Johnson.
00:11:15.120 You're the Speaker of the House.
00:11:16.600 I want you to engage in some simple math.
00:11:18.740 You need to get to 218, okay?
00:11:21.240 If you don't get to 218.
00:11:22.200 This is the first time in my life I don't think I've wanted to get to that name in the morning because I know how stressful that job's got to be.
00:11:27.040 So I want to walk through just the simple reality that Mike is facing.
00:11:31.960 He needs 218.
00:11:34.100 Now, a continuing resolution continues funding, the current discussion is, through mid-March.
00:11:41.000 On top of that, you've got a significant number of House members who are insisting at least two things be included in the continuing resolution.
00:11:50.660 Number one is $110 billion in funding for farmers and ranchers and ag that have just been hammered across this country.
00:11:59.740 So if you don't add that money for farmers and ranchers and ag, you lose dozens of Republicans.
00:12:06.040 You lose a ton of votes if you don't have ag there.
00:12:09.740 So you're sitting there going, okay, we need to take care of our farmers and ranchers.
00:12:13.320 We need to have that money.
00:12:14.200 Secondly, you've got disaster relief, and in particular, two states that have been just hammered by disasters recently, Florida and North Carolina.
00:12:24.800 Now, the Florida and North Carolina members are saying, if you do not have disaster relief in this bill, I'm voting no.
00:12:31.740 So here's the challenge.
00:12:33.660 The first version, Mike Johnson sits down.
00:12:36.780 He extends government funding.
00:12:38.180 He puts funding for farmers and ranchers in there.
00:12:40.700 He puts disaster relief in there.
00:12:42.080 Now, there are a significant number of Republicans who, as a matter of principle, say they will never, ever, ever vote for a continuing resolution.
00:12:52.840 So if you're only looking to Republicans, you can't get to 218 because there are a bunch of them.
00:12:59.020 They're going to vote no, no matter what.
00:13:01.100 They're just like, no, no, no, I will not vote.
00:13:03.960 Yes, I'm a no.
00:13:05.380 So you're Mike Johnson.
00:13:06.300 You've got to get to 218.
00:13:07.460 You look at Republicans.
00:13:08.720 There are not 218 Republicans who will vote yes.
00:13:12.800 Your only choice is to get Democrat votes.
00:13:16.480 If you've got to get to 218, where you'd like to start is give me 218 Republicans.
00:13:22.460 There are not.
00:13:23.380 I don't believe there are 218 Republicans who will vote vote for any CR.
00:13:26.900 That means you must get Democrats.
00:13:30.300 Now, Democrats, let's look at something like relief for farmers and ranchers.
00:13:36.480 Most Democrats today, the Democrats, by and large, don't care about farmers and ranchers.
00:13:41.860 So the Democrats are like, I'm not going to vote for aid for farmers and ranchers.
00:13:44.900 Why would I do that?
00:13:46.200 And Florida and North Carolina are both Republican states.
00:13:49.280 So most of the Democrats are like, why would I give disaster relief to Florida and North Carolina?
00:13:52.880 I'm not from there.
00:13:53.700 I'm a liberal New Yorker.
00:13:55.800 Why would I help out Florida?
00:13:58.000 And so what happens is the Democrats say, OK, if you want my vote, I need X, Y and Z.
00:14:06.760 Now, these are demands made by Democrat members of Congress.
00:14:10.920 So they're bad.
00:14:12.360 They're bad policies.
00:14:13.760 They're terrible.
00:14:14.480 And so the first bill that Mike Johnson rolled out had some elements in it that were really bad.
00:14:22.440 Now, I don't like elements that are bad.
00:14:25.740 But what is Mike Johnson supposed to do?
00:14:29.420 If there were 218 Republican votes there, he would not have to agree to really bad Democrat provisions.
00:14:37.360 There are a bunch of Republicans who are like, hell no, no matter what, I won't vote for you.
00:14:41.440 So, Mike Johnson on the first version, I think, felt he had no choice but get the Democrat votes to pass it.
00:14:50.700 Now, when he rolled it out, Twitter went crazy and a whole bunch of people criticized it.
00:14:56.300 And they said, there are Democrat provisions in here that are terrible.
00:15:00.200 Now, mind you, just remember the very simple principle.
00:15:03.800 Count to 218.
00:15:05.200 If you can get to 218 on a better bill, awesome.
00:15:07.460 And, by the way, 218 doesn't even get it done because you've also got to get it to pass the Senate, which Chuck Schumer and the Democrats control.
00:15:15.160 But let's just focus on the House.
00:15:17.620 If you can't get to 218, nothing will pass.
00:15:21.120 All right, let me talk about a second principle.
00:15:22.720 I've got four principles that I want to lay out.
00:15:24.360 Number one is count to 218.
00:15:26.120 And just remember this because almost all of the commentary is ignoring the fact that nothing will pass unless you can get to 218.
00:15:34.560 And, by the way, so the first bill, Johnson had a CR through mid-March, had Farm Aid, had disaster relief, and had a bunch of gives he had to give to Democrats because he had to get Democrat votes to get it to pass.
00:15:53.500 Twitter went crazy, blasted him.
00:15:56.360 You terrible rhino.
00:15:57.920 How could you possibly propose, Democrat asks.
00:16:00.240 Well, the answer would be because he's got to get to 218.
00:16:04.820 And so the first one crashed and burned.
00:16:07.560 Then, Trump wants to raise the debt ceiling.
00:16:11.440 Now, what's the debt ceiling?
00:16:13.040 Let's talk about that because there's sort of two elements in these battles.
00:16:17.320 One is funding the government.
00:16:19.160 The other is the debt ceiling, which is a cap on how much the federal government can borrow.
00:16:25.280 Now, every president hates the debt ceiling.
00:16:31.040 When Trump is president, he's got to raise the debt ceiling because if he doesn't raise the debt ceiling, we will run into the debt ceiling.
00:16:41.180 And if we did not actually raise it, the United States would default on its debt, which would be disastrous for this country.
00:16:48.140 So Trump wants to raise the debt ceiling.
00:16:51.700 Now, Trump is also angry with Kevin McCarthy, the former Speaker of the House, because he extended the debt ceiling.
00:16:57.960 The debt ceiling is scheduled to expire next summer.
00:17:00.440 I think June or July.
00:17:01.280 I don't remember, but next summer.
00:17:03.940 So six months into the Trump presidency, the debt ceiling is scheduled to hit.
00:17:08.380 And Trump is very focused on he's mad at McCarthy, very mad at McCarthy, that six months into his presidency, he's going to hit the debt ceiling because he's got to raise it.
00:17:18.660 And that's true of every president.
00:17:21.640 And so Trump is demanding he wants as part of this continuing the resolution, raising the debt ceiling.
00:17:28.320 So he demanded that.
00:17:30.220 Well, Mike Johnson came back as a second version, and he came back with what was called a skinny CR.
00:17:36.880 So it included funding for the government through mid-March.
00:17:41.560 It included farm relief and included disaster relief.
00:17:45.900 So those are the asks principally of Republicans.
00:17:49.120 And because Trump demanded it, it suspended the debt ceiling for two years.
00:17:55.080 So it gave two of the four years of the Trump presidency no debt ceiling, which is what Trump is is insisting be in this bill.
00:18:02.700 So this second bill was by and large the bill that was being demanded by Republicans.
00:18:07.540 Well, we had a vote tonight.
00:18:10.540 What was the vote result, Ben?
00:18:13.560 It didn't pass.
00:18:15.620 Okay.
00:18:16.140 As I said, rule number one is count to 218.
00:18:19.400 The vote was 174 to 235.
00:18:25.620 Now, I'm going to make a simple observation.
00:18:27.900 174 is not 218.
00:18:30.060 174 of the yeses, 235 of the noes.
00:18:32.260 The breakdown, every Democrat but two voted no.
00:18:39.620 Look, the Democrats want Trump to fail, so they're all happy to vote no.
00:18:43.300 There were only two Democrats who voted yes.
00:18:45.600 Now, we still had the Republican votes to pass it.
00:18:50.840 Well, what happened?
00:18:52.620 38 Republicans voted no.
00:18:55.460 Now, you cannot get to 218 in this narrow Congress if 38 Republicans vote no.
00:19:02.480 You end up with 174, which is where we were.
00:19:05.300 So, as we're sitting here tonight, I don't know what the hell is going to happen.
00:19:10.360 But on the debt ceiling, and to be clear, this skinny proposal was almost exactly what President Trump demanded.
00:19:18.860 He put out a statement urging every Republican, vote for this now.
00:19:21.880 He was unequivocal.
00:19:22.640 A great deal, vote for it now.
00:19:25.460 Because it had almost entirely what was asked for by Republicans, and it had very few of the things asked for by Democrats.
00:19:33.980 And it didn't just fail.
00:19:35.180 It failed.
00:19:37.040 174 is way, way, way below 218.
00:19:40.180 And to be clear, it failed because 38 Republicans voted no.
00:19:45.200 So, what's next?
00:19:48.760 Let me move to the second principle.
00:19:50.520 I told you I got four principles to think through this.
00:19:53.300 Here's the second principle.
00:19:55.460 Funding should be about leverage.
00:19:59.960 Listen, we're living in a time right now.
00:20:02.500 You spend a lot of time on Twitter.
00:20:03.980 I spend a lot of time on Twitter.
00:20:05.080 I get that sense.
00:20:08.300 You're frustrated with Washington.
00:20:09.860 Washington's the swamp.
00:20:10.780 You don't like government.
00:20:11.660 Just shut it down.
00:20:12.960 Roar.
00:20:15.280 In my view, now listen, there are some Republicans.
00:20:18.800 There are swampy Republicans, Mitch McConnell, who are terrified of a government shutdown, who on every battle over government spending, they want to surrender on everything because they think the government shutting down is the end of the universe.
00:20:29.920 That view is wrong.
00:20:31.460 The government shutting down is not the end of the universe.
00:20:33.680 However, I think you should use battles over government funding as leverage to get something.
00:20:43.380 So if you think back to 12 years ago when I was a brand new baby senator and I led a filibuster against Obamacare and we had a government shutdown and I was painted by the media as the point of the government shutdown.
00:20:57.180 To be clear, my position was not shut the government down.
00:21:03.220 Roar.
00:21:04.600 My position was we should fund the entirety of the federal government, but don't fund Obamacare, that we should use funding as leverage.
00:21:11.360 And I had a very detailed and and laid out plan to get to victory.
00:21:15.840 Now, we failed in 2013 with that objective in significant part because Republican leadership, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, waged war against me.
00:21:25.120 They joined with the Democrats and said, no, we want to fund all of Obamacare to hell with you.
00:21:30.680 And when you're fighting the Democrats and leadership in your own party, you lose.
00:21:37.600 But I will say to everyone tweeting, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down.
00:21:43.720 I get you're on your phone.
00:21:45.440 That feels good.
00:21:46.180 What do I care?
00:21:46.880 Shut it down.
00:21:48.520 Well, let me tell you when you have a shutdown.
00:21:50.440 Number one, if you have a bunch of soldiers stationed abroad who are not getting paid, who are not able to feed their families, that ain't good.
00:21:59.840 By the way, it is also important to recognize the last big shutdown we had was when Trump was president.
00:22:06.360 So when Trump's president, if you have a shutdown and you want to navigate through it.
00:22:11.140 And by the way, Chuck Schumer forced the last shutdown.
00:22:13.080 When Trump was president, his administration was able to mitigate the harms of the shutdown because they wanted to.
00:22:20.080 If we have a shutdown 24 hours from now, Joe Biden and the Democrats will do everything they can to make it as painful as possible.
00:22:27.240 So it means a crap ton of federal workers will not get paid going into Christmas.
00:22:31.840 That doesn't make him thrilled.
00:22:33.180 And by the way, it's not just federal workers that we're not big fans of.
00:22:37.300 It's not bureaucrats that are regulating the hell out of business and destroying jobs.
00:22:41.880 They're they're among them.
00:22:42.800 But it's also prosecutors.
00:22:45.860 It is also Border Patrol agents.
00:22:48.540 It is also Marines.
00:22:50.460 I mean, it is it's Coast Guardsmen.
00:22:52.420 It's a lot of people who are good people doing great work who get their pay cut off.
00:22:57.460 But Biden will also implement the policies in ways.
00:23:01.680 So, for example, what will they do?
00:23:03.040 They'll shut down every national park in America.
00:23:04.800 So maybe you and your family over Christmas break were planning to go see a national park.
00:23:11.580 Maybe you're planning to go see the Smithsonian.
00:23:13.400 Now, Christmas is not a huge time for that.
00:23:16.300 But shutting down the museum, shutting down the national parks, it is 100 percent Biden will do that.
00:23:23.200 And that is done to inflict maximum pain.
00:23:28.040 Let's say you're taking your family on vacation and you want your passport processed.
00:23:34.960 Well, you know what?
00:23:35.840 Biden's going to shut that down.
00:23:37.600 You're not going to get your passport processed.
00:23:41.060 Every consumer facing hurt is what they're saying.
00:23:44.900 They're saying they want to make it hurt and they want you to blame Republicans and they want you to say this is what they did.
00:23:50.500 This is their fault.
00:23:51.860 And it's a blame game.
00:23:53.200 It is a blame game and they want to make it painful and they want to blame Republicans.
00:23:57.380 So I will just say to everyone, look, I'm reading Twitter.
00:24:00.400 I'm reading people that I like and agree with.
00:24:02.020 They're just like, shut it down, shut it down, shut it down.
00:24:05.540 That I get there's a lot about government that frustrates the heck out of me.
00:24:10.480 But but let me just ask, OK, what's the end game?
00:24:13.620 Do you really think if we have a government shutdown for the next month and Trump arrives on January 20th with a government shutdown for a month, that that helps Trump?
00:24:26.920 Do you really think that helps the incoming administration?
00:24:29.560 By the way, come January 20th, it stays shut down.
00:24:32.500 You still got to get to 218.
00:24:36.100 There are people around Trump will say, well, no, no, everyone will blame the shutdown on Joe Biden.
00:24:39.900 I promise you they won't.
00:24:41.300 In significant part, because when it's Republicans screaming, we want to shut down, it's actually not ridiculous of Democrats to say, well, if the Republicans want to shut down, then it's the Republican shutdown.
00:24:56.580 I mean, that that's not an insane thing to say.
00:24:58.460 The media will say it.
00:24:59.280 The Democrats will say it.
00:25:02.340 And when you have Republicans screaming, I want to shut down, that becomes not a very difficult narrative to tell.
00:25:09.200 So if you're arguing who cares about the shutdown, let's shut it down.
00:25:14.280 Let me just ask, what are you trying to accomplish with that?
00:25:17.000 What's the leverage you're trying to get?
00:25:19.600 And what's the end game?
00:25:21.180 When does the shutdown end?
00:25:22.920 Or do you really think we should never pay our active duty military again?
00:25:26.660 And I don't think there are many people.
00:25:29.220 And that's one of the dangers of people just yelling when they don't actually look at, well, what does this mean?
00:25:34.000 And let me be clear.
00:25:36.080 I have been vigorous in saying we should use funding as leverage, but leverage for an achievable, concrete, discrete outcome.
00:25:45.660 I'm not hearing anyone who's saying shut it down, shut it down.
00:25:48.740 Now, some people are saying, all right, here's what we should get leverage for.
00:25:53.420 We should get leverage for Trump's demand that we suspend the debt ceiling.
00:25:57.560 And here's the third principle I want to say.
00:26:01.800 There are some people arguing for eliminating the debt ceiling permanently altogether, just getting rid of the debt ceiling, never again having to worry about it.
00:26:09.140 And by the way, one of the plans that's discussed is, well, the Democrats have always wanted to eliminate the debt ceiling, so let's just do that.
00:26:15.500 And that's how we get out of this.
00:26:17.200 I pray that is not the end game here.
00:26:20.220 Now, eliminating the debt ceiling would be the single worst step we could possibly take if you care about spending or deficits or debt.
00:26:30.700 Now, why is that?
00:26:32.340 Okay, let's do a little history.
00:26:34.460 Historically, the debt ceiling has been the single greatest leverage Republicans have had to force spending restraint.
00:26:44.140 Now, this has only happened and it's only worked against the opposing party.
00:26:48.820 So one of the challenges with the debt ceiling is when your own party is in power, Trump wants the debt ceiling raised.
00:26:55.040 Every president wants the debt ceiling raised.
00:26:58.240 Republicans, as a general matter, are not willing to exert massive leverage on their own party's president and force spending restraint.
00:27:07.080 So when Trump was president the first time, the debt ceiling was not leveraged against Trump because Republicans didn't want to do that.
00:27:14.280 I understand that.
00:27:15.100 But when Democrats are in the White House, Republicans, the debt ceiling is the single most effective lever point that has been used against Democrats to force spending restraints.
00:27:27.300 And I want to point to a couple of examples.
00:27:28.880 Number one, Graham Rudman Hollings.
00:27:31.480 Graham Rudman Hollings passed decades ago.
00:27:33.720 Remains the single most effective spending restraint that has ever been passed into law.
00:27:40.120 Phil Graham, former senator from Texas, was the lead author.
00:27:42.980 How did that get passed?
00:27:44.340 It got passed because of the debt ceiling.
00:27:46.240 It got passed because Republicans forced it and said, we won't raise the debt ceiling unless you pass meaningful structural reform to rein in spending.
00:27:55.760 And Graham Hollings was in effect for many years and had a very positive effect reigning in the growth of spending.
00:28:05.740 I'll point to a second example.
00:28:07.840 2010, the Budget Control Act.
00:28:09.480 2010, Barack Obama was president.
00:28:12.440 And Republicans used the debt ceiling to force Barack Obama to agree to something called the Budget Control Act.
00:28:20.380 The Budget Control Act, again, significantly constrained the growth of federal spending.
00:28:27.000 It was only through the debt ceiling we got that.
00:28:31.500 Now, the argument, and by the way, today, we Republican senators, we all had lunch.
00:28:38.160 J.D. Vance came to express his views to the lunch.
00:28:43.280 There were a number of Republicans saying, well, we should just get rid of the debt ceiling now.
00:28:47.100 And I'll tell you, I expressed my views.
00:28:50.140 If we get rid of the debt ceiling, it would be utterly disastrous.
00:28:53.020 If you care remotely about government spending, eliminate the debt ceiling would be a massive mistake.
00:28:59.500 And I just pointed out, if we get rid of the debt ceiling, there will come another Democrat president.
00:29:04.960 I get the urge to live in the moment of we're in charge.
00:29:08.180 Woo-ha.
00:29:09.080 But unfortunately, there will come another time when the American people elect a Democrat.
00:29:14.580 And for anyone who has an attention span beyond 12 seconds, you recognize throughout history that politics has been a pendulum.
00:29:22.520 And it goes from one party to the other.
00:29:24.120 So we will get another Democrat president.
00:29:25.740 And I told my colleagues today at lunch, I said, all right, you get rid of the debt ceiling.
00:29:30.540 Get ready for President Elizabeth Warren.
00:29:33.400 And if you don't like a $36 trillion debt, get ready for a $50 trillion debt.
00:29:38.180 Because the Democrats, Elizabeth Warren wants to eliminate the debt ceiling.
00:29:43.780 AOC wants to eliminate the debt ceiling.
00:29:46.200 Chuck Schumer wants to eliminate the debt ceiling because they want to spend us into oblivion.
00:29:50.860 So I will say one potential way out of this is to cut an absolute deal with the Democrats that gets rid of the debt ceiling forever.
00:30:01.120 We will have given away what history has proven.
00:30:03.780 And by the way, I'll go back.
00:30:05.920 I'll go back to about a decade.
00:30:07.460 I don't have the most recent stats.
00:30:08.820 But about a decade ago, it was the case that of the previous 51 times Congress had raised the debt ceiling.
00:30:15.500 28 of those times that it attached meaningful conditions to the debt ceiling.
00:30:20.740 So it's leverage.
00:30:21.620 Remember my principle number two is use spending for leverage?
00:30:24.960 This is related on principle number three.
00:30:27.020 The debt ceiling is about getting leverage for concessions.
00:30:30.840 Now, here's the problem.
00:30:33.200 I mentioned to you there are a bunch of Republicans in the House who say they'll never vote for a continuing resolution.
00:30:38.580 There are also a bunch of Republicans in the House who say they will never, ever, ever vote to raise the debt ceiling.
00:30:43.940 I got to tell you, I don't think that makes any sense.
00:30:46.740 I've never said it.
00:30:47.920 And I consider myself very much a fiscal conservative.
00:30:51.260 But 40 percent of every dollar the federal government spends is borrowed unless you're prepared to slash the federal government budget by 40 percent tomorrow.
00:30:59.600 And by the way, there is literally no serious person on planet Earth who is prepared to do that and is able to do that.
00:31:05.580 Even if you would with a magic wand do that, there's no way to make that happen unless you're prepared to do that.
00:31:11.160 But the debt ceiling will have to be raised.
00:31:14.260 My position has always been I'm willing to vote to raise the debt ceiling if we are getting concessions that are reining in the out of control spending that's bankrupting our country.
00:31:26.520 However, in the House, there are a bunch of Republicans who simply say I will never, ever, ever vote to raise the debt ceiling no matter what.
00:31:33.160 It doesn't matter what we get.
00:31:34.480 My answer is no.
00:31:35.260 That is a real problem.
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00:32:10.740 Let me make one final principle.
00:32:14.240 Mike Johnson, who's the Speaker of the House.
00:32:17.240 There are a bunch of voices on TV, a bunch of voices on talk radio, a bunch of voices on Twitter saying get rid of Mike Johnson, throw him overboard.
00:32:24.300 I'm going to tell you something that I believe is an absolute fact.
00:32:27.860 Mike Johnson is the single most conservative Speaker of the House that will ever be Speaker of the House in our lifetime.
00:32:37.120 He is undoubtedly the most conservative Speaker of the House we have ever had in our lifetime.
00:32:42.480 It's not even close.
00:32:43.200 It's not even it's not even arguable.
00:32:46.540 And I'm here to tell you, listen, Mike Johnson may lose his job over this.
00:32:50.520 He has a very perilous.
00:32:52.020 It's a tiny majority in the House.
00:32:54.300 You've got a bunch of House members saying I'm going to vote against him.
00:32:56.820 I will tell you this.
00:32:59.080 If Mike Johnson is toppled as Speaker of the House, and he might be.
00:33:01.880 Kevin McCarthy was.
00:33:03.340 Mike Johnson is orders of magnitude more conservative than Kevin McCarthy.
00:33:08.080 It's not even close.
00:33:10.280 If Mike Johnson is toppled as Speaker of the House, we will end up with a Speaker of the House who is much, much more liberal than Mike Johnson.
00:33:21.960 I think that is indisputable.
00:33:24.560 I know Mike well.
00:33:25.700 He's a good man.
00:33:27.340 He's a decent man.
00:33:28.500 He's a strong Christian.
00:33:30.240 He is a man of humility.
00:33:31.820 And everyone on Twitter is saying, but he gave the Democrats concessions.
00:33:37.600 I want to go back to the first principle I said.
00:33:41.340 Count to 218.
00:33:43.500 If Mike Johnson could draft a bill that makes it out of the House with 218 Republicans, he would.
00:33:52.320 I don't believe that is possible.
00:33:55.300 There's certainly nothing to indicate it is possible right now.
00:33:58.380 If you cannot get to 218 with Republicans because a bunch of Republicans say, I will not vote for anything you propose no matter what.
00:34:07.280 Then Mike Johnson is forced to get Democrat votes.
00:34:12.660 To get Democrat votes, he must give Democrats things they want.
00:34:17.240 And so I don't know what will happen.
00:34:21.320 I think there's a reasonable chance somehow out of this we get some very short-term CR, a week or two or three.
00:34:30.880 And then in mid-January, we're back in the middle of this mess again.
00:34:35.500 That's possible.
00:34:36.200 I'll tell you, the Senate, we're all sitting there.
00:34:37.800 We have no idea what's going to happen.
00:34:40.260 I got to tell you, I feel for Mike Johnson.
00:34:42.860 I think he is trying with all his might.
00:34:44.440 And I would just encourage you to focus on, listen, I think we need people to be serious about changing the direction of the battleship of government.
00:34:58.840 And to do so, you actually need a strategy that can get the votes to prevail.
00:35:07.180 If you can't get the votes, it's easy to tweet about it.
00:35:11.840 I mean, that's from the cheap seats.
00:35:14.800 Thirty-eight Republicans voted no.
00:35:18.640 One hundred and seventy-four is not 218.
00:35:21.520 And so I don't know what the result is here.
00:35:26.160 I think it is chaotic.
00:35:28.260 We will get through this one way or another.
00:35:31.420 But the fundamental structural dynamics, and it's one of the things, look, going forward into the next year, I'm really optimistic about the Trump presidency.
00:35:39.660 I'm really optimistic about a Republican Senate and House.
00:35:42.560 But I'll tell you, the Senate's going to be a lot easier.
00:35:45.480 We've got 53 Republicans coming in next year.
00:35:48.000 By the way, we still have a Democrat Senate today.
00:35:50.560 So I haven't even, this whole discussion has ignored the fact that you've got to get Chuck Schumer and the Democrats to agree with whatever you do, which is even harder.
00:35:56.560 But next year, we'll have 53 Republicans in the Senate.
00:36:00.600 Fifty-three is a big enough majority that we can lose three votes and still get things done.
00:36:05.080 So I think the Senate will be able to pass pretty good legislation, not fantastic, not wonderful, but surprisingly good.
00:36:14.040 The House worries me enormously next year because the majority is so excruciatingly small that if you lose a handful of votes, you cannot get to 218.
00:36:27.480 And so I think Mike Johnson is trying to work miracles right now.
00:36:33.060 But the single hardest challenge of the next two years in terms of passing good legislation is going to be getting to 218 in the House.
00:36:41.900 And I don't know what the answer is to that.
00:36:43.640 I will say this.
00:36:45.600 I really, really hope that people that are listening to this listen to what you had to say and they understand that we do this show not to just go out there, as you described it, and throw things out there from the cheap seats without doing the math.
00:37:02.840 And I think most people that listen to the show want to know what's really happening.
00:37:05.980 And I hope that this gives them at least a map to understand the reality of a situation instead of just gaining Twitter followers because you take a position knowing that people are going to retweet it and knowing that people are going to like it in general.
00:37:22.360 And then you're going to build your popularity because there's a lot of people that are doing that right now.
00:37:26.920 But like you said, the number comes down to the number and 218 is the number and we're nowhere close to that right now.
00:37:33.740 I want to take a moment to talk about something that's incredibly important and that is this.
00:37:38.760 Do you have a firearm?
00:37:40.520 Do you carry a firearm?
00:37:42.300 Well, are you protected if you ever have to use that firearm?
00:37:46.600 I ask that question because I know exactly what happens when you're involved in a shooting.
00:37:51.460 I had to use my firearm to save my life.
00:37:54.800 And I can tell you the way that I was treated after I used that firearm was like maybe I was a criminal.
00:38:00.780 Maybe I was a murderer.
00:38:01.760 Now, thankfully, the system worked the way it was supposed to, but it doesn't always work that way.
00:38:07.520 And you may need real legal defense.
00:38:10.880 And that is where Delta Defense comes in.
00:38:14.200 Everyone thinks they're keeping their family safe.
00:38:17.220 But are you really?
00:38:18.600 And that's the question you have to ask yourself when it comes to our twisted legal system.
00:38:22.740 And DAs that have become activists that like to let criminals walk free and they do not like Second Amendment advocates, gun hunters like yourself.
00:38:33.060 And that is where things have changed.
00:38:35.560 You have the risk of losing everything if you actually protect yourself with your Second Amendment rights.
00:38:41.800 And that is exactly why there are 800,000 Americans that are members of the USCCA.
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00:39:13.820 And for a limited time, text the word AMERICA to 87222.
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00:39:45.780 Don't forget we do this show three days a week.
00:39:48.840 Hit that subscribe, auto-download button.
00:39:51.380 And on those in-between days, grab my podcast, the Ben Ferguson Podcast.
00:39:55.520 I'll keep you updated.
00:39:56.780 And when we get a deal done, I promise you we'll be here for you.
00:39:59.980 We'll explain it.
00:40:01.080 If we don't get a deal done right now, there's a government shutdown.
00:40:03.360 We'll explain that as well even in more detail and how we got to where that point is.
00:40:07.920 But the center, I will see you back here in a couple of days.
00:40:12.060 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:40:14.940 Guaranteed human.