Verdict with Ted Cruz - DeSantis OUT, Is Nikki Haley Next？ War Stories from the Presidential Trail

00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.

00:00:02.700 Guaranteed human.

00:00:05.600 Senator, good to be with you in person this week.

00:00:07.780 For everyone listening, we do one of our shows a week, usually on video.

00:00:11.760 So you can watch this on YouTube or on X or on Facebook.

00:00:15.760 Make sure you follow us there.

00:00:16.840 Make sure you follow us on YouTube and you can watch this episode as well.

00:00:19.500 I want to get in first into the big news as we got here to film this.

00:00:24.460 Ron DeSantis, not only did he drop out, but he's endorsed Donald Trump for president.

00:00:28.900 Your initial reaction to that, is that the right decision, the right time to do it early on?

00:00:34.040 Well, listen, it is big news.

00:00:35.360 I will say it's not surprising.

00:00:36.940 You and I talked about this in our pod last week.

00:00:39.780 As you know, last week I endorsed Donald Trump immediately following the Iowa caucus.

00:00:44.540 And the reason I did that is the results of the Iowa caucus were clear.

00:00:48.840 They were decisive.

00:00:49.740 And what I said that next day is this primary is over.

00:00:53.760 Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.

00:00:55.940 I thought that was clear from the results of Iowa.

00:01:00.260 DeSantis, it was clear that DeSantis was going to drop out.

00:01:03.280 We didn't know that it would necessarily be on Sunday, but we knew it would be soon.

00:01:07.560 He did not have a path going forward.

00:01:09.420 He did not have a path to victory.

00:01:11.440 He recognized that once you don't have a path to victory, I think the right thing to do is to drop out.

00:01:16.600 That's what he did.

00:01:17.300 At this point, it is a two-person race between Trump and Nikki Haley. 0.90

00:01:23.520 And we've got the New Hampshire primary coming up right now.

00:01:27.460 As I said, I think this primary is over, but New Hampshire might represent a speed bump.

00:01:33.860 New Hampshire, over history, has at times been contrary.

00:01:38.640 Haley and Donald Trump are polling basically neck and neck.

00:01:43.060 In New Hampshire, I think it is entirely possible we see a close outcome in New Hampshire.

00:01:49.120 I don't think it is impossible that Nikki Haley wins New Hampshire.

00:01:53.040 She's within two points of him right now.

00:01:54.840 Yeah.

00:01:55.380 But whether it is close or whether Haley wins New Hampshire or whether Trump wins New Hampshire,

00:02:01.540 I don't think it makes a hill of beans of difference.

00:02:03.800 If Trump wins, the race is over that instant.

00:02:06.140 If Haley wins, the race is over shortly thereafter because after New Hampshire, the race moves on to South Carolina.

00:02:16.020 Nikki Haley is a former governor of South Carolina, but Trump has a dominating lead in South Carolina.

00:02:21.980 Trump is going to win South Carolina by double digits.

00:02:25.960 And that hurts her more, you think, because it is her home state.

00:02:28.420 It's kind of like when Al Gore lost Tennessee, for example.

00:02:31.060 If you lose your home state, it's not going to go well for you.

00:02:33.860 Well, and especially in a primary.

00:02:36.180 Remember, Gore lost Tennessee in the general election, so there was nothing to happen after that.

00:02:44.040 In this instance, losing your home state in a primary is crushing.

00:02:50.020 You need to be able to win your home state.

00:02:52.120 I don't see any way that Nikki Haley is going to win South Carolina.

00:02:55.020 And right after South Carolina are the super primary, the super Tuesday states that are predominantly southern states.

00:03:02.760 In all of those, Trump has a big, big lead.

00:03:06.520 What we've got playing out right now is Nikki Haley has become the moderate establishment candidate. 0.97

00:03:12.780 So anyone, typically in a Republican presidential primary, about 30 percent of the voters self-identify as establishment moderates.

00:03:23.660 That means 70 percent do not.

00:03:27.140 At this point, Nikki is clearly owning the establishment moderate lane. 1.00

00:03:31.700 And part of the reason why it is possible that she wins in New Hampshire is New Hampshire is a state that has a lot of independents.

00:03:40.480 Now, independents in New Hampshire can vote in either primary.

00:03:44.120 They can show up on primary day and say, I want to vote Democrat or I want to vote Republican.

00:03:48.500 And so they can choose that day.

00:03:50.020 And so independents can really influence the outcome of the New Hampshire primary.

00:03:54.540 This weekend, the Boston Globe had a big editorial urging independents, do not vote in the Democrat primary.

00:04:02.380 Show up, vote in the Republican primary.

00:04:04.820 Operation chaos, basically.

00:04:06.520 Well, but it's very specific.

00:04:08.600 And vote for Nikki Haley. 1.00

00:04:09.940 Beat Donald Trump is what the Boston Globe and the Boston Globe says.

00:04:13.820 We don't like Nikki Haley. 0.84

00:04:15.100 Yeah.

00:04:15.540 But we hate Donald Trump.

00:04:17.060 And so particularly if you see a bunch of independents showing up in order to defeat Trump, that could happen in one state.

00:04:25.260 But beyond that, I don't see any any path going forward for Haley or anyone to beat Trump.

00:04:31.840 Let's talk about DeSantis for a moment, dropping out and what happens to his voters in New Hampshire.

00:04:37.940 There are some that might be frustrated their guys out.

00:04:40.560 Do they does a majority of them go historically to the underdog there because you're mad that you had your guy dropped out because the guy who's in the lead, a.k.a. Donald Trump.

00:04:51.500 Talk about the psychological aspect of voters and what happens historically there.

00:04:55.720 So I have not seen the polling in New Hampshire of who DeSantis's people list as their second choice.

00:05:01.560 And that's among more sophisticated polling.

00:05:04.120 You ask people, all right, your first choice is is Ben Ferguson.

00:05:07.400 Who's your second choice?

00:05:08.640 Mickey Mouse.

00:05:09.060 Okay, so you write those down.

00:05:10.560 My supposition.

00:05:14.520 So DeSantis was about six percent in New Hampshire.

00:05:17.220 He was not going to do well in New Hampshire.

00:05:19.240 That's part of the reason Ron didn't have a path.

00:05:21.780 Yeah, he was going to get crushed in New Hampshire.

00:05:23.720 Then he was going to go to South Carolina and get crushed in South Carolina.

00:05:27.260 And then he was going to go on to the Super Tuesday states and get crushed, including getting crushed in his home state of Florida.

00:05:33.980 And so they're just as you looked at the calendar and said, well, what state can he win?

00:05:38.900 There wasn't an answer to that, which is why why this decision was made.

00:05:44.220 You know, in terms of where the roughly six percent of New Hampshire voters go that we're going to vote for him, my guess is that more of them go to Trump than go to Haley.

00:05:57.980 I don't know that, but you've got kind of twin factors if you're just making suppositions.

00:06:04.680 On one factor, look, DeSantis, as a candidate based on his record, there's much more of an ideological overlap with Trump.

00:06:14.660 DeSantis was running as a pretty Trumpy candidate.

00:06:18.160 It was basically Trump without the baggage was was to the extent there was a DeSantis message.

00:06:23.280 That was it.

00:06:24.460 You and I talked about this.

00:06:25.340 If you put them on stage and you went through 100 conservative issues there and said, raise your hand if you agree with this or disagree, they would probably have matched up about 99 out of 100.

00:06:33.020 And so the voters who were with DeSantis tend to agree with Trump on the issues down the line.

00:06:41.180 However, some of the voters with DeSantis are people who just didn't like Trump and decided DeSantis was the strongest alternative.

00:06:48.620 So if you're a voter who doesn't like Trump, presumably you go to Nikki Haley.

00:06:53.300 If you're a voter who is ideologically aligned and and stylistically aligned with Trump and DeSantis, you presumably go to Trump.

00:07:03.460 My guess is of the six percent, four percent goes to Trump and two goes to Haley.

00:07:08.980 That's that's that's just pulling out of the air.

00:07:11.420 But notionally, those would be the reasons that that would happen.

00:07:14.420 All right.

00:07:14.580 Let's go back to your victory for a second.

00:07:16.360 That was a life changing moment politically for you.

00:07:20.300 Can we talk strategy just for a second there?

00:07:23.340 What was your strategy and remind people what the issues were during that election with Donald Trump?

00:07:29.280 It was I mean, that was a that was a just bloodbath.

00:07:33.540 There was a lot of punches that were being swung.

00:07:35.980 There was a lot of negative media.

00:07:38.160 And I'm talking about media stories and accusations and absurd things that I could have never imagined would hit in that race. 0.96

00:07:43.560 And all of a sudden it was all there and you came out with that victory.

00:07:47.720 When did you think you were going to win that?

00:07:49.700 Was there a day or two before when you thought we have the edge?

00:07:52.380 Was it a week before?

00:07:53.340 So on the weekend, all of the public polling showed Trump was going to win Iowa and all the public polling was wrong.

00:08:00.220 I can tell you my polling on the campaign showed we were going to win Iowa.

00:08:03.640 My polling, I think, was one point off.

00:08:05.420 And that was consistent throughout the 2016 campaign.

00:08:09.260 Our internal polls were almost exactly where our numbers were.

00:08:13.560 And so we knew where we were.

00:08:14.760 We ran a very, very data driven campaign.

00:08:18.260 Listen, 2016 was a race where there were 17 Republican candidates.

00:08:22.080 It was a very crowded field.

00:08:24.360 And those 17 candidates, it was a very strong field.

00:08:29.380 The level of debate then was at a level that I don't think we've had in a long time in politics.

00:08:34.360 And that's one of the things that I loved about that campaign was you did have a lot of brilliant minds on stage.

00:08:40.880 I kind of missed that.

00:08:42.720 There was there was a level of debate that I thought was good for the country on issues.

00:08:47.820 Did you enjoy that?

00:08:49.620 Loved every second of every minute of every day.

00:08:53.060 It was incredible.

00:08:54.740 It was it was breathtaking.

00:08:57.960 It was all consuming.

00:08:59.660 And it's the most fun I've ever had in my life.

00:09:01.480 Can I ask an inside baseball question?

00:09:04.500 Rubio, if he would have dropped out before South Carolina, what did just polling show then?

00:09:11.560 Trump would have still won South Carolina, but it would have been a much would have been much closer.

00:09:15.860 And and Rubio later on, Rubio stayed in the race for a long time and cut support away from me.

00:09:23.900 And and so, you know, if you fast forward to Super Tuesday and before the Florida primary, we polled at the time what happened if Rubio and I ran together as a ticket.

00:09:35.460 What ended up happening?

00:09:38.420 I ended up winning 12 states.

00:09:42.260 Trump won at the time.

00:09:43.900 It was something like 23 states.

00:09:46.160 And no other candidate won more than a single state.

00:09:48.840 So Kasich won Ohio.

00:09:50.860 Rubio won Minnesota.

00:09:52.740 And Trump and I won every other state.

00:09:55.860 We did poll at the time right before Florida.

00:09:58.680 What happens if Rubio drops out and if Rubio joins me?

00:10:03.800 And we are poll numbers show show that my support jumped double digits.

00:10:09.960 Wow.

00:10:10.180 And I think it would have changed the outcome if Marco had done that.

00:10:12.660 I think it is quite likely the outcome would have changed.

00:10:16.340 But he didn't.

00:10:17.400 And so what ended up happening is even though I won 12 states at the end of the day, Trump had too big a lead and it essentially took too long for the rest of the field to consolidate that Rubio stuck around a long time.

00:10:35.540 Kasich stuck around a long time.

00:10:37.000 They couldn't win anywhere, but they could suck votes away from me.

00:10:39.900 And they did.

00:10:41.140 And that their sticking around played a pivotal part in Trump's winning the nomination in 16.

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00:13:01.300 All right, let's talk about dropping out.

00:13:03.660 And I want you to kind of pull back the curtain.

00:13:05.960 Yep.

00:13:06.400 Because DeSantis just went through this gut-wrenching moment.

00:13:09.720 I think in politics, people don't understand how hard it is.

00:13:12.900 Not when you're running president.

00:13:13.960 I think on just you, your family, your friends, your supporters, the people that are writing checks.

00:13:21.580 It is one of the worst moments watching a candidate have to decide how to drop out, when to drop out, where to do it,

00:13:30.020 being good stewards of their supporters and their dollars that you're continually asking them to give.

00:13:35.780 When you were looking at the idea of dropping out, how did that go down?

00:13:40.360 Did you talk to a larger group of people first?

00:13:42.980 Did you talk to donors and then a smaller group?

00:13:45.880 Did you talk to your campaign staff?

00:13:47.320 And then did you talk to your family?

00:13:48.680 What was that cycle?

00:13:49.900 How did that look like to make that decision?

00:13:51.460 Because obviously DeSantis had to deal with that.

00:13:53.620 And now there's a lot of people calling for Nikki Haley to get out.

00:13:56.920 I don't think she's going to get out anytime soon.

00:14:00.020 And so what does that decision look like when you were having to go through it?

00:14:04.160 Well, listen, almost everyone drops out for the same reason.

00:14:07.000 They go broke.

00:14:08.160 What drives you out of a campaign is when you're no longer able to raise the money to keep the lights on,

00:14:13.440 when you're no longer able to raise the money to run any ads,

00:14:15.740 when you're no longer able to raise the money to pay your campaign staff,

00:14:19.120 when you're no longer able to raise the money to fly to the next campaign event.

00:14:22.200 That's what drives people out.

00:14:23.700 It's also a reason a lot of campaigns are terrible at budgeting and they blow a lot of money fast and early and they go broke.

00:14:32.580 And so you have a lot of candidates who drop out before a single vote is cast,

00:14:36.900 who drop out before what happens.

00:14:41.120 And so marshalling the money, one of the reasons DeSantis, I'm not surprised that he dropped out,

00:14:48.600 is he was going broke and nobody would write him a check.

00:14:52.640 At this point, when he's gotten crushed in Iowa and there's not a state coming up that he had any prayer of winning,

00:15:00.980 it becomes impossible to raise money, both large money.

00:15:06.000 You're calling donors and asking them to max out and no one will write a check then.

00:15:10.060 If they don't think you can win, your money disappears.

00:15:12.060 But little donors, people giving $5 or $10,

00:15:14.580 they don't do that either if they don't believe you have a chance at victory.

00:15:20.280 That dynamic is inevitably the case.

00:15:22.620 You also have, and look, it's worth underscoring, believing you can win.

00:15:31.960 If your supporters believe you can win, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

00:15:35.940 So, for example, we came out of the first three states.

00:15:40.720 I won Iowa, Trump won New Hampshire and South Carolina.

00:15:44.280 We then went forward.

00:15:46.020 We had Super Tuesday.

00:15:48.540 I ended up on Super Tuesday, Trump won seven states.

00:15:51.740 I won three.

00:15:54.160 So, I won Oklahoma, Maine, and Texas.

00:15:58.620 And Texas was a big deal.

00:15:59.800 A lot of delegates.

00:16:01.060 I won a big double-digit victory in Texas.

00:16:04.160 You'd rather win Texas than three or four other smaller states in the same day.

00:16:07.960 Yes, but winning Oklahoma, and that's the day Rubio won Minnesota.

00:16:12.200 So, that was his one victory.

00:16:15.780 But winning those three states is what made it, at that point, a two-man race.

00:16:21.740 As I established myself as the principal alternative to Trump at this point.

00:16:27.200 If you fast forward from there.

00:16:30.260 So, there was a three-week period in March and April when I won five consecutive primaries by double digits.

00:16:39.740 I won Utah, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Wisconsin.

00:16:48.660 All three of those played, all five of those played out over three consecutive weeks.

00:16:53.360 And I won all of them by double digits.

00:16:56.000 Big, crushing victories.

00:16:58.520 Normally, when that happens, there's a narrative of the parties uniting, coming together.

00:17:04.480 You're winning, you're uniting different factions of the party.

00:17:08.120 Wisconsin, for example, was an enormous victory.

00:17:10.900 You look at Wisconsin.

00:17:11.860 Wisconsin, the knock that the media tried to do on me was the same knock they did on Huckabee and Santorum.

00:17:18.760 Which is, he's an evangelical niche candidate that just appeals in small circles.

00:17:24.740 I never thought that was a very, very accurate characterization.

00:17:29.520 Yes, I am a Christian, and that is a big part of who I am.

00:17:33.280 But I'm a very different person than Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum.

00:17:40.080 Wisconsin is one of the least evangelical states in the country.

00:17:44.880 Wisconsin is a purple state.

00:17:46.540 Yeah.

00:17:47.100 Wisconsin is a blue-collar state.

00:17:49.640 Wisconsin is a union state.

00:17:51.640 Wisconsin is a working-class state.

00:17:54.260 And so under conventional narratives, I should have gotten crushed in Wisconsin.

00:17:58.000 I ended up winning decisively in Wisconsin.

00:18:01.540 I won very conservatives.

00:18:02.800 I won somewhat conservatives.

00:18:04.120 I won women.

00:18:05.080 I won men. 0.65

00:18:05.980 I won young people.

00:18:07.000 I won Reagan Democrats.

00:18:08.200 It was a 13-point victory in Wisconsin.

00:18:10.780 What was the issue there that made that difference?

00:18:13.140 I campaigned on my record that I had a strong, proven record of fighting for conservative principles,

00:18:22.100 fighting for jobs, fighting for the Constitution, and that proven record resonated.

00:18:29.440 What happened subsequently, however, is the next week was the New York primary.

00:18:35.980 Now, the New York primary is Donald Trump's home state.

00:18:39.780 Yeah.

00:18:39.880 The New York primary also is a difficult primary.

00:18:44.240 For one thing, New York has a curious way of doing primaries in that they have a different party,

00:18:50.020 the conservative party, so that many of the more conservative New York voters are not actually in the Republican Party.

00:18:56.580 They're in the conservative party.

00:18:58.040 Yeah.

00:18:59.800 And listen, one would expect Trump to win his home state.

00:19:03.580 He did.

00:19:04.340 He won New York decisively.

00:19:05.760 New York is also where most of the national and corporate media is headquartered.

00:19:10.620 So they loved it.

00:19:11.520 And so for the media, they obsessed on that.

00:19:14.660 And what ended up happening, we saw a 48-hour time period where the relentless media coverage was,

00:19:23.060 the race is over, Trump is won, he can't be beaten, he can't be beaten, he can't be beaten.

00:19:27.580 Despite we just had five double-digit victories.

00:19:29.940 In a row.

00:19:30.500 In a row, consecutively, the media just flooded the zone with the message, the race is over.

00:19:39.960 And we saw our numbers plummet.

00:19:41.680 So the next week was Pennsylvania.

00:19:44.460 Before the New York primary, Trump and I were tied in Pennsylvania.

00:19:47.460 Pennsylvania, after the New York primary, when the media hammered, the race is over, the race is over, we dropped double digits.

00:19:54.380 Our people gave up.

00:19:55.320 They said, you just can't win.

00:19:57.340 That effect.

00:19:58.420 And so I can tell you for DeSantis, once your people believe you can't win, they don't show up.

00:20:05.640 Yeah.

00:20:05.960 They don't work.

00:20:06.820 They don't make phone calls.

00:20:08.020 They don't give money.

00:20:09.100 They don't put yard signs.

00:20:10.140 They don't do all the things that a campaign desperately needs.

00:20:12.520 It just takes, so coming out of Wisconsin, the polling in California, I was leading Trump significantly in California.

00:20:21.380 Interesting.

00:20:22.080 Until the media just broke our back with the race is over, the race is over, the race is over, Trump has won, Trump has won, Trump has won.

00:20:31.300 And the media made that a self-fulfilling prophecy.

00:20:34.220 And so we saw, my last primary was Indiana.

00:20:39.920 And Indiana, the relentless media coverage, and actually it was quantified, Trump got $3 billion in free media that cycle.

00:20:53.080 And so my campaign-

00:20:54.720 By the way, I think you should say that again because I think people forget this.

00:20:58.580 $3 billion with a B.

00:21:00.140 And so people understand how we do this in the political world.

00:21:03.500 When you're running campaigns, there's earned media, there's free media, and there's news cycles that just play to some people's advantage.

00:21:12.520 Donald Trump just sucked the free media out of every room.

00:21:17.920 And there was no precedent for it.

00:21:20.120 So in 2016, my campaign raised $92 million.

00:21:24.420 It was the most money any Republican had ever raised in the history of presidential primaries.

00:21:30.720 It was more than George W. Bush or John McCain or Mitt Romney.

00:21:35.000 And that came from 1.6 million contributions all over the country. 0.74

00:21:38.960 $92 million is a crap ton of money.

00:21:41.420 Yeah.

00:21:42.020 Unless you have $3 billion on the other end.

00:21:46.880 And it actually was quantified.

00:21:48.060 The last 30 days of the campaign, Donald Trump got $500 million in free media.

00:21:54.580 This is during the primary.

00:21:55.620 The last 30 days, $500 million.

00:21:57.760 Wow.

00:21:57.880 Over 90% of it was positive.

00:22:00.640 Basically, the last 30 days, the media just said, it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over.

00:22:06.220 And the floor collapsed on all of our numbers.

00:22:08.720 Our people gave up.

00:22:10.160 The media convinced them it was over.

00:22:11.960 And once they convinced them it was over, it was.

00:22:14.800 So DeSantis is in the same place.

00:22:17.200 His people had abandoned hope.

00:22:21.580 And at that point, he had no choice.

00:22:23.860 And so I suspended the campaign May 3rd.

00:22:27.720 I still remember it well.

00:22:28.940 We did a rally.

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00:23:02.340 What got you to that decision, though?

00:23:04.040 I understand the money drying up.

00:23:05.760 But explain the sphere around you and how many meetings did it take to get to the decision?

00:23:12.960 So, look, I had a core team, a senior leadership team on the campaign.

00:23:17.880 And these are very trusted advisors.

00:23:19.600 And it's about 10 people.

00:23:24.000 And we spent, so the night before Indiana, we spent several hours going through the data and going through numbers.

00:23:33.920 I told you we were intensely data-driven.

00:23:36.700 I don't think there has ever been a candidate and a campaign that was as data-driven as we were.

00:23:43.540 And we knew the results in virtually every state before they happened.

00:23:46.820 And consistently our results were within one or two points of the outcome.

00:23:51.900 So as we were sitting down the night before, we had a long, extensive meeting, and we go through the numbers.

00:23:58.420 We go through the numbers in the subsequent states.

00:24:00.340 And as I'm looking at it, there wasn't a state we had a path to win.

00:24:07.680 So is that just crushing to you personally?

00:24:11.420 I mean, you're still in a campaign.

00:24:13.660 You're still fighting, Senator.

00:24:15.520 I mean, I...

00:24:16.300 So the media played a pivotal role in it.

00:24:19.300 So, for example, the night of the New York primary, I gave a speech in Constitution Hall in Philadelphia.

00:24:28.720 Pennsylvania was coming up the next week.

00:24:30.000 I remember that.

00:24:30.620 It was a brand-new speech.

00:24:32.660 So it was not my stump speech.

00:24:33.760 It was a speech I'd never given before.

00:24:36.440 It was...

00:24:37.360 It wasn't terribly long.

00:24:38.360 It was like 12, 13 minutes.

00:24:39.900 So it was not a long stem winder.

00:24:43.280 The media cut it off.

00:24:44.400 They didn't air it.

00:24:45.240 They just went away.

00:24:46.360 Now, mind you, there are only two of us, Trump and me.

00:24:51.120 There were four people on planet Earth, one of the four of whom was going to be the next president.

00:24:55.240 Trump and me, Hillary and Bernie.

00:24:57.020 Those were the four candidates remaining.

00:24:58.300 And the media said, nope, we're not even going to cover your speech.

00:25:02.660 Mind you, they would do things like...

00:25:05.460 CNN had one press conference where they literally had the camera live on an empty podium waiting for Trump to speak.

00:25:13.720 And they had the camera pointed at the air.

00:25:15.920 There's his plane.

00:25:16.860 I mean, it was breathtaking coverage that just drowned everything out.

00:25:23.240 And so as we're sitting there, we looked at the upcoming states.

00:25:29.940 And when our numbers collapsed, our numbers collapsed everywhere.

00:25:33.040 So I'm sitting there with my data guys and I'm like, well, okay, what's the path to victory?

00:25:38.980 I mentioned why DeSantis suspended.

00:25:40.860 He didn't have a path to victory.

00:25:41.900 As I looked at it, I could not see any path to victory.

00:25:46.560 Now, I also knew my numbers in Indiana.

00:25:48.660 I knew that we were going to lose the next day.

00:25:50.840 I knew we were going to lose by double digits.

00:25:53.240 Now, did I hold out hope for a miracle?

00:25:55.960 Sure.

00:25:56.420 Yeah.

00:25:56.580 But our data was rock solid.

00:26:01.420 And it's interesting.

00:26:02.260 There's some people in politics who hire staffers who just blow smoke at them.

00:26:07.380 Yeah.

00:26:07.640 Tell them what they want to hear.

00:26:09.300 I don't understand that. 1.00

00:26:10.540 I think that's idiotic. 1.00

00:26:11.560 I hire a team that they will tell me when I've screwed up. 1.00

00:26:15.180 They'll tell me when the polling is bad.

00:26:16.600 Like, they're brutally honest.

00:26:18.420 I think that makes you much more affected.

00:26:19.920 But I knew that night, okay, the next day we're going to get clobbered in Indiana.

00:26:24.700 And if we get clobbered in Indiana, we go on, and the state's coming up.

00:26:29.280 We don't have any path.

00:26:30.740 And I mentioned everyone drops out when they go broke.

00:26:32.740 I'm one of the few people for whom that was not the case.

00:26:35.840 I wasn't broke.

00:26:36.860 We had several million dollars still in the bank.

00:26:39.340 You could have kept going.

00:26:41.020 I had the money to keep going.

00:26:43.360 Now, we couldn't do big ad buys.

00:26:45.340 Yeah.

00:26:46.080 But you could run a campaign.

00:26:47.460 You could get to the next state.

00:26:49.000 You could set up shop.

00:26:50.080 You could do the events.

00:26:51.880 So when I suspended on May 3rd, Trump was astonished.

00:26:56.940 Did not expect me to do that.

00:26:59.580 And as I said, the reason I did is we looked at the polling numbers, and there was no credible path to come back and win.

00:27:08.060 And once there wasn't a path to win, I wasn't interested in running and being a spoiler.

00:27:12.560 Listen, I wanted to beat Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:27:14.380 Yeah.

00:27:14.520 And so I didn't want to stick around just for the heck of it once there wasn't a path forward.

00:27:19.620 And so I had a speech prepared that night, and we're in Indiana, and we had several hundred of our strongest supporters that were there.

00:27:28.960 And, well, actually, let me tell you something about that morning.

00:27:36.080 So the morning of the Indiana primary, I fly out to this event to do this speech.

00:27:41.180 And, by the way, in Indiana, I was campaigning with Mike Pence.

00:27:44.760 Yeah.

00:27:45.200 Who was the governor of Indiana, who had just endorsed me.

00:27:48.160 It was a big endorsement.

00:27:49.140 Yeah.

00:27:49.320 And a lot of people thought that could maybe change those numbers you were talking about.

00:27:53.620 Except we didn't, because Pence's numbers were terrible in Indiana.

00:27:56.700 He actually was underwater.

00:27:58.780 His unfavorables were higher than his favorables.

00:28:01.800 And so we had, we actually, there were very limited places in Indiana we could take Pence, because most counties we went to, it was not helpful.

00:28:11.080 We picked a couple of counties where it was.

00:28:13.380 But this is what I mean by being data-driven.

00:28:15.700 We say, okay, if we're going to campaign with someone, let's do it somewhere where it helps and not hurts.

00:28:20.960 Sure.

00:28:21.080 And down to those day-to-day decisions.

00:28:23.260 But the morning of the primary, we flew, I forget what town, but we flew to a speech that morning.

00:28:30.020 And as we were driving by, there was an elementary school on the corner.

00:28:37.600 And the school knew that a presidential candidate was coming.

00:28:42.600 And so they'd let all the kids go out into the, like, the yard.

00:28:47.160 Yeah.

00:28:47.600 To see the presidential candidate.

00:28:50.100 And I told the guy driving the truck, I said, pull over.

00:28:54.900 I want to go talk to the kids.

00:28:56.380 And so I went and talked to the kids.

00:29:00.720 And I ended up just kind of walking right into the group of kids.

00:29:03.620 And I was surrounded by hundreds of fifth graders.

00:29:11.320 Maybe younger, but they seemed about fifth graders.

00:29:14.820 And they were cheering and screaming at the top of their lungs.

00:29:20.860 And I've never had that happen, by the way.

00:29:23.260 This is the only day in politics that I've ever had this experience.

00:29:27.460 And they're literally jumping up and down around me and cheering.

00:29:32.220 And I've got to say that was emotional because I knew that morning that, barring a miracle, I was dropping out that evening.

00:29:39.840 So that was a hard day.

00:29:41.420 That whole day was a hard day.

00:29:42.880 And I will tell you, look, I don't like wearing faith on my sleeve.

00:29:50.160 But, Ben, I genuinely feel like that morning was God just giving me a hug.

00:29:55.700 Yeah.

00:29:56.240 Like, I will tell you to be surrounded by several hundred screaming fifth graders just cheering.

00:30:03.020 I was grateful, like, okay.

00:30:05.900 Thank you.

00:30:06.700 I needed this.

00:30:07.400 I needed this.

00:30:08.540 And it's.

00:30:09.520 Still to this day.

00:30:10.600 I'm getting choked up.

00:30:12.220 I mean, it was a morning that was just like, wow.

00:30:16.200 So that night, we have the rally.

00:30:18.380 I have my prepared remarks.

00:30:20.380 And I'm giving my remarks.

00:30:21.580 And they have me suspending the campaign.

00:30:23.560 As I get to, I say, I've always said I will stay in this as long as there is a path to victory ahead.

00:30:31.840 Looking at the results, I don't see a path to victory.

00:30:36.420 And therefore, I am tonight suspending my campaign for president.

00:30:39.900 But when that happened, there was a woman in the crowd who let out a whale. 1.00

00:30:47.260 And it felt like she had been struck.

00:30:51.580 And I got to say, it struck me like a knife.

00:30:54.920 Like, that whale hurt.

00:30:57.520 And I made it through the speech.

00:31:01.080 And I'll tell you, it was not easy to make it through the speech.

00:31:04.100 And then I went backstage.

00:31:07.360 There was a big curtain that separated backstage.

00:31:10.220 And I went backstage.

00:31:11.780 And I'll tell you, I was just weeping.

00:31:14.080 Just tears were streaming down my face.

00:31:17.320 And to this day, I'm embarrassed.

00:31:21.720 Because I couldn't go out there and thank those supporters.

00:31:24.420 And I desperately wanted, there were hundreds of people who had flown from state to state, had knocked on doors, had made phone calls, had poured their hearts into them.

00:31:34.160 And I wanted with all my might to go out there and hug every one of them and say, thank you, thank you for fighting for our country.

00:31:41.280 And I just, I couldn't stop weeping.

00:31:44.580 And the problem was, there were about 200 TV cameras out there.

00:31:49.640 And from my perspective, when I thought that night, I said, I'll be damned if I'm going to let the media turn lying Ted into crying Ted.

00:31:59.000 That just, no, no, they do not get to see this. 0.99

00:32:02.780 It's none of their damn business. 0.99

00:32:04.720 And so I couldn't come out. 0.99

00:32:07.900 And Heidi was there.

00:32:09.060 And it was one of, look, any good marriage is really a partnership.

00:32:12.620 And Heidi is my best friend.

00:32:15.580 That night, Heidi went out and spent probably two hours.

00:32:20.880 Saying thank you.

00:32:21.760 Saying thank you and hugging every person there.

00:32:24.040 And they're all crying, too.

00:32:25.220 Like, it was a painful night, but Heidi had the strength to do what on that night I did not.

00:32:34.360 That's a hard thing.

00:32:36.160 Like, a presidential campaign is so all-consuming.

00:32:42.500 It consumes 16 to 18 hours a day, seven days a week.

00:32:48.120 It, that, listen, I feel for Ron and Casey right now.

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00:34:08.200 I think anyone that runs for president that's a serious candidate and drops out.

00:34:14.420 People have asked me, what's it like on a presidential campaign when it's over?

00:34:17.220 I'm like, it's like a funeral.

00:34:18.740 Yeah.

00:34:18.920 If you're a true believer in the campaign, in the candidate, you're giving it your all.

00:34:23.520 You're a staffer.

00:34:24.660 You want your guy to win and it's over.

00:34:26.780 It's like a funeral.

00:34:28.600 And I spent a lot of time after, like, our team.

00:34:32.680 And I still think the team we assembled, and I'm not impartial, but I think the team we

00:34:38.880 assembled is the best campaign team, certainly, that I've ever seen.

00:34:44.320 And they were like family.

00:34:45.940 And so I went and assembled the entire team.

00:34:48.220 Our headquarters was here in Houston.

00:34:50.540 And I thanked all the staff.

00:34:52.040 This is like a day or two later.

00:34:53.340 I thanked everyone and brought them in and just talked about, reflected on what the campaign

00:34:57.760 meant and what they'd accomplished.

00:35:00.260 And when we started, nobody thought I had a prayer.

00:35:02.820 Nobody thought we could win a single state.

00:35:04.460 And we came within inches of winning the whole thing.

00:35:07.540 And I will tell you, we had, so our campaign office was like an entire floor of cubicles

00:35:14.820 here in Houston.

00:35:15.760 Not far from where we are right now.

00:35:17.280 Very close to where we are right now.

00:35:19.240 And as everyone, you know, went home, I remember walking through that campaign office and just

00:35:26.900 all the empty cubicles.

00:35:30.260 And you know the song from Les Mis, Empty Chairs and Empty Table?

00:35:35.920 Yeah.

00:35:37.360 That was the song I kept hearing in my mind.

00:35:43.620 In fact, I'm sure Ron and Casey are feeling the same thing.

00:35:47.340 And it's, it is a hard thing because everyone pours themselves into it.

00:35:54.680 You know, years ago someone told me, there's a reason that both politics and war use the

00:36:00.260 word campaign.

00:36:01.940 Because it's all consuming.

00:36:03.320 There is nothing else in life.

00:36:04.540 Like when you are on a campaign, it is 100% of your will and your heart and your mind and

00:36:09.920 your soul and everything.

00:36:11.360 And, uh, and you know, you do feel like you've let people down.

00:36:17.860 You know, you're getting people that are pouring, they're uprooting their lives, they're moving

00:36:22.760 their families, they're giving sacrificially, they believe in you.

00:36:27.620 And look, at this point, I've won elections, I've lost elections.

00:36:31.040 Winning is much better.

00:36:32.100 Yeah.

00:36:32.320 Those nights are a lot better, but the reality here, I think this outcome was ordained the

00:36:43.080 night of the Iowa caucuses.

00:36:44.420 When Trump won a dominating victory, it was clear DeSantis had no oxygen.

00:36:51.700 And Haley, as I mentioned, she will likely be competitive in New Hampshire, but I see 0.68

00:36:57.760 no path for her beyond that.

00:36:59.720 And so now we are going to test, look, there are some big donors in the Republican Party

00:37:04.620 that are never Trumpers, that who do not like Trump and are writing millions of dollars to

00:37:11.000 try to change the outcome.

00:37:12.360 I don't think the money can do it at this point.

00:37:17.380 You know, they've got enough money in New Hampshire.

00:37:19.540 They could practically send a masseuse to give everyone a back rub and a foot rub on the way 1.00

00:37:24.060 to the polls.

00:37:24.780 But as you get on to South Carolina, I think Trump's lead is way too large for Haley to

00:37:31.280 have a chance.

00:37:32.460 And from there, I don't think there's any path beyond.

00:37:37.460 Final question.

00:37:38.780 Your advice to Nikki Haley, if you don't have that pathway that you just described, what's

00:37:44.520 the point of staying in?

00:37:45.780 Oh, look, you know, I actually try to refrain from giving advice to other candidates that

00:37:50.200 everyone's got to follow their own heart and do what they think is right.

00:37:53.120 And their own timeline.

00:37:53.780 Yeah.

00:37:54.440 I mean, it's, you know, calling on people to get out.

00:37:59.940 I don't think.

00:38:02.440 Let it play out.

00:38:03.380 Yeah, it will play out.

00:38:05.060 It's going to play out naturally.

00:38:06.100 It's going to play out naturally and pretty quickly, I think.

00:38:10.860 And so, you know, I recognize the decision to suspend a campaign is not easy.

00:38:15.560 And look, depending on when it occurs, it can often mean, so in 2016, you know, a bunch of

00:38:25.820 the candidates suspended early, long before Iowa.

00:38:29.800 And so I ended up of my opponents, five of my opponents ended up endorsing me in that race.

00:38:35.360 And so I got endorsed by Rick Perry and Carly Fiorina and Scott Walker and Jeb Bush and

00:38:45.000 Lindsey Graham all backed me.

00:38:46.640 And, you know, you go out and campaign.

00:38:50.500 So, you know, Rick Perry, you know, went and campaigned with me in Iowa, you know, and, you know, I remember being in Barnes there.

00:38:57.800 And look, Rick Perry was my governor, someone who I knew and respected.

00:39:02.360 He's older than I am.

00:39:03.640 So it was a little surreal having someone like Rick Perry come and campaign and say, go vote for Ted.

00:39:11.340 You know, Lindsey Graham, my colleague, you know, he had famously said that if you killed me on the floor of the Senate

00:39:20.000 and the jury were other senators, you couldn't find a jury to convict me, to convict the murderer.

00:39:27.800 And so when Lindsey endorsed me, I, you know, I jumped on, you know, and he helped raise some money for me.

00:39:34.620 And I remember saying, saying at the time, I said, wow, this is the first time in my life I've ever been endorsed by someone who's publicly called for my murder.

00:39:43.360 You know, politics can be a strange, and Lindsey and I have become friends since then.

00:39:48.220 But it was, you get interesting, Carly Fiorina, who I thought was a terrific candidate that cycle. 1.00

00:39:57.800 You'll recall I announced that if I'd won, she would have been my VP.

00:40:01.400 Yeah.

00:40:02.540 That was an unusual step to do it early.

00:40:07.460 But frankly, I was trying to break through the narrative, the wall of the $3 billion of free media.

00:40:14.700 And I was trying to find something that actually would be heard by the voters,

00:40:20.240 but the corporate media had no interest in anything being heard.

00:40:24.160 Frankly, I think most of the media wanted Trump to be the nominee because they wanted Hillary to win. 0.72

00:40:31.040 And they thought, that was what all of them were saying was, give us Trump, he's the easiest to beat.

00:40:36.300 And Hillary Clinton will become the president of the United States of America

00:40:38.960 and will break that glass ceiling of that beautiful building.

00:40:41.260 I think that was a very deliberate strategy. 1.00

00:40:44.620 And I will say, for all those bastards that kind of backfired, 0.99

00:40:48.240 they got four years of Donald Trump as president, 1.00

00:40:50.380 and they may be about to get four more years of Donald Trump as president.

00:40:54.480 And it's, you know, the self-declared media overlords,

00:40:59.360 there is an old saying, be careful what you wish for.

00:41:01.920 No doubt about it.

00:41:02.680 I love these conversations.

00:41:04.060 I love that we could do this.

00:41:05.020 Thanks for pulling back the curtain on 16

00:41:06.720 and explaining it from a candidate's perspective.

00:41:09.060 Because, as you mentioned, what people go through when they have to drop out,

00:41:12.900 especially DeSantis right now, it's tough.

00:41:15.940 It can take months to come out from that fog of war afterwards.

00:41:20.140 Because all of a sudden you go from night to nothing to it's all over, as you mentioned.

00:41:24.300 And how long does it take to get out of that fog?

00:41:26.580 I think it depends on the candidate.

00:41:28.100 It depends a lot.

00:41:29.220 Look, everyone has a period where you just kind of...

00:41:33.220 It's like morning.

00:41:34.240 I assume Ron will do this,

00:41:36.100 but just about everyone goes and goes somewhere on vacation.

00:41:40.040 And my advice when I talk to a candidate after they've lost,

00:41:43.180 and this is true,

00:41:43.780 I've talked to lots of candidates who are running for Senate in the House,

00:41:46.900 and some win, some lose.

00:41:48.220 But for the ones that lose, I say go somewhere, unplug,

00:41:52.320 get off email, get off your phone, get off Twitter,

00:41:55.380 just go sit by the beach with a pina colada and just...

00:42:00.720 Recharge.

00:42:01.340 Recharge.

00:42:01.840 Be with your family, hug your kids,

00:42:03.900 just get away for a while.

00:42:07.120 And look, the world gets a lot quieter.

00:42:10.460 You know, in a presidential campaign, it's deafening.

00:42:14.520 And then when you suspend it, it's like, okay, I'm out of this crazy game, at least for now.

00:42:21.380 And then to come out of the funk, listen, every presidential candidate that loses,

00:42:28.000 I think without exception goes into a funk.

00:42:30.980 I mean, you have a bit of depression and grieving.

00:42:34.380 Yeah.

00:42:35.380 And the key to kind of...

00:42:36.760 I was no exception to that.

00:42:37.820 I had a period where I was just kind of...

00:42:39.540 In a funk.

00:42:39.980 Yeah.

00:42:41.580 And I think the key to coming out of it is finding something to lean in that you love,

00:42:46.340 that you engage in.

00:42:47.680 And, you know, listen, I have a day job of representing 30 million Texans,

00:42:50.960 which I love doing and pour all of my heart, mind, and soul into it.

00:42:56.420 And that became...

00:42:58.080 And then when Trump became president...

00:42:59.980 You had somebody to work with.

00:43:01.640 And I rolled up my sleeves and said,

00:43:03.860 I am going to lead the fight in the Senate for us to deliver on our promises.

00:43:07.480 We have work to do.

00:43:09.740 And so pouring yourself into the fight and into the work

00:43:12.820 is, I think, a really important part of coming out of it.

00:43:17.340 And some candidates do that more quickly than others.

00:43:20.160 It varies person by person.

00:43:21.620 It's fun.

00:43:22.440 I love the conversation.

00:43:23.660 Don't forget we do this show Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

00:43:25.660 Make sure that you hit that subscribe download button,

00:43:29.100 especially if you're listening on Apple right now.

00:43:31.860 You have to check that box and make sure that you are following the show.

00:43:35.900 They've changed it up for the new year and how it works.

00:43:38.740 So make sure you're still getting those automatic downloads

00:43:41.200 as we do this show three days a week,

00:43:42.860 plus a week in review on Saturdays for what you may have missed during the week.

00:43:47.420 And we'll see you back here on Wednesday.

00:43:50.940 This is an iHeart Podcast.

00:43:53.820 Guaranteed Human.

Verdict with Ted Cruz - January 22, 2024

DeSantis OUT, Is Nikki Haley Next？ War Stories from the Presidential Trail

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