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00:03:46.600Some don't even know what they were even charging him with, including, I think, Donald Trump, because the rules changed at the last minute.
00:03:54.260We talked about that in the last podcast.
00:03:56.860But let's look at the immediate future.
00:04:00.560There's a sentencing that is coming the same week as the Republican National Convention.
00:04:05.520There is a legitimate chance that, A, Donald Trump could be in jail or, B, could be under house arrest.
00:04:12.660And that means he wouldn't be able to go to his own convention.
00:06:09.540Sentencing is going to happen four days before the Republican National Convention.
00:06:14.320In the interim, there are a series of steps, including Trump has to go to a pre-sentence evaluation.
00:06:20.920He may have to submit to a psychiatrist or psychologist.
00:06:24.200They compare a report, all of the steps that are standard after someone is convicted, that a report gets presented to the judge to help the judge make a decision about sentencing.
00:06:37.060We will find out about sentencing literally the week of the Republican National Convention.
00:07:04.600I think the judge in this trial bent over backwards, did everything possible, gave jury instructions that just defied U.S. Supreme Court precedent, did not require the jury to be unanimous on all the elements of the trial, let the jury mix and match and pick different potential other crimes to elevate this from a misdemeanor to a felony.
00:07:42.860Within minutes of the verdict coming down, the Biden White House put out a statement referring to him as a, quote, convicted felon.
00:07:51.600That was the entire point of all of this.
00:07:54.500We will hear the words convicted felon referring to Donald Trump from Democrats and from the corporate media one billion times between now and Election Day.
00:08:08.020Every other sentence they say will say felon, felon, felon, felon, felon.
00:08:42.700If he knows, Senator, and we use what you just said, that he knows it's going to be overturned, why the hell wouldn't he throw Donald Trump in jail or under house arrest where he can't travel?
00:08:53.900Look, he might, and I fully believe this judge is partisan enough.
00:08:59.600He would love to throw Donald Trump in a deep pit, to throw him in the pit of despair, to use a Princess Bride analogy.
00:09:07.560He would do everything and anything he could.
00:09:10.900But I also, I don't have any indication that this judge is stupid.
00:09:16.600And I think he's willing to abuse his power.
00:09:18.440But assuming he's not stupid, and I don't know that, if he orders Donald Trump sent to jail, that will be subject to an immediate appeal.
00:09:28.500And I think the immediate appeal would be successful.
00:09:31.200I don't know if it would be the state courts of New York or if it would be the federal courts.
00:09:35.820But I don't think the courts are going to allow the presumptive Republican nominee, and I think likely the next president of the United States, to be hauled away to Rikers Island.
00:09:46.340By the way, New York State is also a state where you can assault a police officer, you can punch a little old lady in the face on the street, you can practically rape or murder someone, and these imbeciles won't send you to jail.
00:10:01.460But if your crime is being a Republican who's the leading candidate for president, you're right.
00:10:06.440This partisan judge just might send you to jail.
00:10:12.300So you're saying that if Trump, and this is where I love your legal mind, you're saying that it's more valuable to not put him under house arrest or put him in jail because then he's the convicted felon through Election Day, then it's overturned after Election Day, and you interfere with the election results.
00:10:32.420And if you actually put him in jail or under house arrest, then it would escalate the timeline rapidly, so then he may actually be found innocent?
00:10:43.720Not innocent, but listen, I think the judge is not going to put Trump in jail because it would be bad politics.
00:10:50.880This is not law. This is not criminal justice. It's politics.
00:10:53.520It would be bad politics because it would force the appellate courts to act.
00:10:59.140And I think neither the partisan judge nor the partisan DA want the appellate courts to give a victory for Donald Trump before November.
00:11:08.540So they're not going to do anything, I think, to tee up a legal victory for Donald Trump before November.
00:11:15.340They want any legal victory for Trump to be after November.
00:11:19.120Now, I will say, I will give it one caveat.
00:11:22.420I could see some scenario where the Trump issue issues some sort of house arrest order.
00:11:31.420He says you've got to stay at Mar-a-Lago, you've got to wear an ankle bracelet.
00:11:35.740I don't think the judge will do that, but it is conceivable.
00:11:40.860But you're allowed to go to the convention and give the convention speech.
00:11:44.080You're allowed to go to the debate and participate in the debate.
00:11:46.480That house arrest, with enough exceptions, that it is not transparently election interference.
00:11:53.980It's just obvious to anyone with an IQ above 12 that it's election interference.
00:11:59.860That is not outside the realm of possibility.
00:12:03.400I think that probably doesn't happen either.
00:12:05.440But I do not think the judge would be foolish enough to order him sent to jail
00:12:11.440because I think it would force a rapid appellate reversal, and that's terrible politics.
00:15:37.000And the Supreme Court has a variety of jurisdiction to grant a series of risks.
00:15:44.820And the Supreme Court, it wouldn't be a direct appeal, but you could craft an appeal that went straight from the state trial court to the U.S. Supreme Court.
00:15:53.920As I said, it is extraordinarily rare, but it is theoretically possible.
00:15:58.740And I'm sure the Trump legal team is debating that right now.
00:16:02.720Now, if they did, the risk of that, in any ordinary circumstance, the Supreme Court would never, ever, ever take it.
00:16:10.600If the court's general approach to appeals is let the process play out, let the timeline play out, maybe another court could resolve this.
00:16:19.760So if this were not the leading candidate for president of the United States, the Supreme Court's approach would be,
00:16:28.280even if this conviction is wrong, maybe the New York intermediate appellate court reverses it.
00:16:33.420Maybe the New York top appellate court reverses it.
00:16:36.220There are lots of ways this could get fixed without the Supreme Court getting involved.
00:16:39.800So that's the overwhelming approach of the Supreme Court in almost every case.
00:20:26.480But I personally believe that the chief justice, Chief Justice Rehnquist, which is the justice for whom I clerked.
00:20:32.600And so I knew Chief Justice Rehnquist very, very well.
00:20:35.040I think he in particular felt a great responsibility that when the country was all waiting on the resolution of the presidential race, that the court had an obligation to step in and engage.
00:20:48.500Well, I think there's a chance the court will feel that same thing.
00:20:53.040I think there are certainly justices who, watching this, are outraged at the lawlessness of the abuse of power.
00:21:00.260I don't know where the chief justice will fall.
00:21:03.240John Roberts was part of that legal team down in Bush v. Gore.
00:21:08.140I worked side by side with John Roberts in writing the petition for certiorari.
00:21:13.880He was part of the team that wrote that.
00:21:16.500My recollection, although I don't have a distinct recollection, but I assume, I think he was among those of us who believed the court would take the case.
00:21:25.780Now, fast forwarding, he obviously has a very different role because he's the chief justice, and I think he's very protective of the court's legitimacy.
00:21:34.760And I will say, the Democrats are mounting a frontal assault on the court to delegitimize the court.
00:21:42.960So I think there will be justices afraid of getting into this matter, all of which is to say, I don't know if the court would grant an extraordinary writ.
00:21:53.280But I'm confident the Trump legal team is debating that, debating that extensively right now.
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00:36:24.840They don't have the votes to defeat you right now.
00:36:27.360The only way they defeat your confirmation is if they provoke you to say something stupid at the hearing, and what you say tanks your nomination.
00:39:25.060Joe Biden is America's Putin right now, going after his political opponent and trying to lock them up.
00:39:30.660You know, in law, if you look at something like antitrust law, there's a concept in law called conscious parallelism, which is people that all have similar incentives behaving similarly, but it's not a conspiracy.
00:39:46.400They just all are acting according to the same incentives.
00:39:49.420I don't know that Alvin Bragg is taking orders from the Biden White House.
00:39:56.660I agree that Joe Biden has been dictatorial.
00:40:10.000You know, when his was the first indictment, I think a lot of Democrats were kind of sheepish.
00:40:14.740They said, OK, this one is really sketchy.
00:40:17.180They didn't want this to be the lead case.
00:40:20.200And look, ultimately, the Biden DOJ, they sent the number three lawyer at DOJ, who had been a Democrat donor before and a Democrat consultant.
00:40:30.240They sent him to be part of the trial team.
00:40:32.560So the Biden DOJ got in bed with this partisan prosecution.
00:40:37.160But I'm not convinced that Alvin Bragg did so at the direction of the White House.
00:40:44.740So does everyone in the Biden DOJ, the Biden White House.
00:40:49.240So does Fannie Willis down in Georgia.
00:40:51.780So does just about every wild-eyed partisan Democrat.
00:40:55.680And so I wouldn't say it is as much a direction from the White House as that they're all suffering from the same Trump derangement syndrome,
00:41:06.200where they're willing to burn it all down, to destroy the rule of law, to abuse the justice system because they hate Trump so much.
00:41:16.380And they've convinced themselves if he is reelected, if he's president, it's the end of democracy.
00:41:22.580I mean, we played on Wednesday's pod, Robert De Niro, going on and on.
00:41:27.160That'll be the last election ever if Trump is elected, which is just, it's deranged.