Verdict with Ted Cruz - August 25, 2023


Who WON The First 2024 GOP Debate？ Plus Trump Mugshot for the Ages


Episode Stats

Misogynist Sentences

6

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.640 Guaranteed human.
00:00:05.520 Welcome. It is Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you as well.
00:00:09.980 And we are going to obviously talk about the most famous mugshot, I think, in political history of Donald Trump coming out of Georgia, what this means to the campaign.
00:00:19.700 We're going to do that for you in a second, but we're also going to talk about the presidential debate.
00:00:24.440 Now, here's the cool part.
00:00:25.440 So we're going to talk about what it's like to be in a presidential debate, how you prep for a presidential debate, and what it's like to walk out there for the first time.
00:00:33.960 Because for many of these people, they had never been in this position before.
00:00:37.980 Senator, you watched the debate.
00:00:39.260 Give us your overall review of this debate, this first debate with Donald Trump not showing up.
00:00:44.600 Was that smart of him not to show up?
00:00:46.200 And how did you think people did on that stage?
00:00:49.500 Well, look, I thought everyone did a good job on Wednesday night.
00:00:54.140 That being said, I think there were clear winners that came out of the night.
00:01:00.780 And to my view, there were four winners that came out of the debate.
00:01:06.520 Number one was Vivek Ramaswamy.
00:01:09.220 He had a very strong performance that night.
00:01:11.760 Many Americans had never heard of him, didn't know him.
00:01:14.480 And I think he impressed a lot of people.
00:01:16.660 His stock went up.
00:01:18.520 He's going to raise a lot of money off of that.
00:01:20.420 He's going to go up in the polls, particularly in the early primary states.
00:01:24.840 I think, secondly, Nikki Haley did well on Wednesday night.
00:01:30.980 She was crisp.
00:01:32.340 She was strong.
00:01:33.240 She was aiming for a different slice of the electorate.
00:01:36.400 She was not going for the MAGA, America First slice.
00:01:40.540 She was not particularly going for conservatives.
00:01:43.140 She was aiming much more for the establishment lane.
00:01:47.960 But she was aggressive, smart, well-prepared.
00:01:51.220 And I think she strengthened herself.
00:01:53.220 She had been out of the news for a while.
00:01:55.900 And I think she enhanced her standing Wednesday night.
00:01:59.740 The third person who I think advanced himself somewhat is Mike Pence.
00:02:05.160 Now, look, Mike is a friend.
00:02:06.700 Actually, all these guys.
00:02:07.560 I know everyone on the stage well.
00:02:09.420 But Mike is a good man.
00:02:11.000 And Mike had been having a tough time.
00:02:13.520 He had not been getting a lot of traction.
00:02:15.480 And I think he was pugnacious.
00:02:17.960 He was in there fighting.
00:02:19.760 I think he made a deliberate play for evangelical voters, in particular in Iowa.
00:02:26.200 I think there were several of his answers that were directed very much at evangelical voters.
00:02:31.320 And I think he probably helped himself.
00:02:32.880 He reminded—I mean, Mike is a Christian, a strong believer.
00:02:36.700 And I think he reminded people what they've always liked about Mike Pence.
00:02:40.500 I think he enhanced himself somewhat on Wednesday night.
00:02:44.520 But none of the three of those were the biggest winners.
00:02:47.740 I think by far the biggest winner Wednesday night was Donald Trump.
00:02:52.660 And I think Trump was very happy with everything that went down.
00:02:56.380 And the reason for that is several-fold.
00:03:00.160 Number one, obviously, Trump didn't show up.
00:03:02.600 And by not showing up, he forces a dynamic on the entire debate that it's very difficult to avoid the analogy of—
00:03:12.380 You think back in 2016 when there were two debate stages.
00:03:15.660 The main debate stage for the candidates that were leading in the polls.
00:03:19.300 And then they had a second debate stage for the candidates that were relatively low in the polls.
00:03:24.380 And almost everyone referred to the second stage as the kiddie table.
00:03:28.140 And I think by Trump's absence, it had the effect of diminishing everyone on that stage.
00:03:37.620 And I think that's what he wanted.
00:03:38.600 I think that was his intention.
00:03:39.780 He has a big lead in the polls.
00:03:40.840 But I think his absence made it feel like he's on a stage by himself and everyone else is on the other stage fighting between themselves.
00:03:51.600 But secondly, and this is the biggest reason why I think Trump was benefited.
00:03:56.720 You and I have talked about before how I think this primary is principally a two-person race.
00:04:03.520 And a two-person race between Trump and Ron DeSantis.
00:04:08.980 DeSantis did fine.
00:04:10.420 On Wednesday night, he didn't screw anything up.
00:04:12.740 He didn't have any gaffes.
00:04:14.720 But he did not dominate.
00:04:17.380 He did not own that stage.
00:04:19.440 He was not clearly head and shoulders above the rest.
00:04:23.120 And for the DeSantis campaign, that's a problem.
00:04:26.640 In particular, the problem for DeSantis is what I started by saying.
00:04:33.460 That Vivek and Haley and Pence all did quite well.
00:04:40.420 I think all three of them are going to enhance their numbers.
00:04:44.040 And if their numbers are going to be enhanced, that comes out of DeSantis' hide.
00:04:49.140 Yeah.
00:04:49.700 For DeSantis to have a shot at beating Trump, it's got to be a two-man race.
00:04:55.160 And so the reason why I think Trump was the biggest winner Wednesday night is that I think after the debate, there were more contenders gaining traction.
00:05:05.980 And the more the contenders are splitting support among multiple candidates, the better off Trump is.
00:05:11.740 And so that's why I think the Trump team was very happy when the debate was over because he looked at the field and saw Vivek gaining a few points, Haley gaining a few points, Pence gaining a few points.
00:05:24.440 And if they're splintered, that makes it much harder for anyone on that stage to credibly go after Trump when he's got a 30, 40-point lead over the field.
00:05:36.000 And I didn't see anything Wednesday night that significantly changed the dynamic of the large advantage Trump has.
00:05:44.840 You know, sometimes there's a little bit of humor that you get to have in these moments.
00:05:48.540 I started my podcast this morning by saying, well, it was an incredible vice presidential, I'm sorry, I mean presidential debate.
00:05:55.980 But that's kind of what you're saying in a sense is no one really moved up in a significant way or solidified or really took away from the group overall to challenge Trump, who's still probably 50 points ahead.
00:06:10.200 And again, you can lose a lot of the debate if you're the winner, if you're the leader, I should say, but you can you can lose a lot very quickly if you're the if you're the leader and you don't perform really well.
00:06:22.060 Trump not even having to show up, his poll numbers are going to probably say exactly the same this next week.
00:06:27.140 Would you agree? Yeah, I think that's right.
00:06:30.040 I think Trump will continue to have a very strong position in the Republican primary.
00:06:35.140 Now, I've also said I don't think the primary is over.
00:06:37.800 I think everyone that is trying to say, OK, it's it's done is is looking at it from an ahistorical lens.
00:06:44.440 I think that we still have a vigorous primary ahead of us.
00:06:48.680 But look, several things can happen in primaries in primary debates.
00:06:52.480 Number one, in a debate, someone can screw something up badly.
00:06:56.740 Someone can tank their their campaign.
00:06:59.020 I don't think anyone did that Wednesday night.
00:07:00.580 So no one no one had a major gaffe.
00:07:04.060 No one had a moment that that is likely to be fatal to their campaign.
00:07:07.560 And that's important.
00:07:09.480 Secondly, you can have a candidate that has a breakthrough moment that just energizes, raises a mountain of money, soars in the polls.
00:07:17.760 And that's happened a number of times.
00:07:20.300 I don't think that happened either.
00:07:21.920 I think the the winners on that stage that I was discussing are are relative winners and marginal winners.
00:07:30.020 I think the three candidates I identified are likely to gain some in the polls.
00:07:35.380 They'll gain a couple of points.
00:07:36.500 They'll gain some momentum.
00:07:37.460 They'll raise some money.
00:07:38.380 And that's actually the money piece is is a big chunk of it.
00:07:40.900 You saw in their closing statements, several of the candidates pitch their websites.
00:07:44.760 That's the a good debate can raise you millions of dollars.
00:07:50.700 And and for all of these candidates, most of these campaigns are gasping on fumes.
00:07:55.620 And so that's one component is they need the funds to make it to the next debate, to make it through.
00:08:01.860 Look, there's a reason presidential candidates drop out.
00:08:05.320 It's almost always the same reason they go.
00:08:07.440 Money.
00:08:08.000 Yeah.
00:08:08.620 Yeah.
00:08:08.780 That that's when when campaigns end is when they can no longer keep the lights on.
00:08:14.500 They can no longer pay the staff.
00:08:16.040 They can no longer travel.
00:08:17.340 They can no longer communicate to communicate.
00:08:19.880 And politics takes money.
00:08:21.120 And and in my view, the fact that other candidates got traction hurts the DeSantis campaign.
00:08:32.660 Now, I don't think DeSantis had any bad moments.
00:08:36.120 I think he had some good moments Wednesday night.
00:08:38.780 I just don't think there was a meaningful gulf between DeSantis and the other candidates on the stage.
00:08:47.900 And and in a campaign where you're trying to make it a two man race between you and Trump, that's not ideal.
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00:10:43.360 Senator, I want you to pull back the curtain for everybody because I've got a million questions that I want to ask.
00:10:49.720 I was around your campaign in 2016, but there's very few that see what happened when it comes to debate prep, when it comes into the days and the hours before a debate, the nerves that obviously everyone on stage is going to feel in some point, especially in your first debate.
00:11:08.620 Take us back to 2016.
00:11:10.500 How did you prep for that first presidential debate like so many were having to prep for last night?
00:11:16.380 And you had debated in college.
00:11:18.580 You had debated when you were running for Senate.
00:11:20.880 But did it feel different when you were running for president in that first debate?
00:11:24.660 And what was your goal for success as a candidate when you walk up there night one of a debate?
00:11:30.700 Yeah, well, first of all, does it feel different?
00:11:35.980 Absolutely.
00:11:36.780 And I guarantee you everyone on that stage was unbelievably nervous.
00:11:43.220 I'm not someone who feels a whole lot of nerves very often, but I distinctly remember that first debate in Cleveland.
00:11:51.640 24 million people watched that first debate.
00:11:54.020 And I remember before the debate, you go out and you do a walkthrough, sort of a practice where they show you where your podium is and you stand on the stage and you look up.
00:12:03.180 And it's a couple hours before the debate starts.
00:12:04.920 And I remember standing there and just looking up and up and up.
00:12:07.920 And it was a big, big auditorium in Cleveland.
00:12:11.240 And it kind of takes your breath away.
00:12:13.620 You're like, OK, they're shooting with real bullets here tonight.
00:12:17.440 Like this is for real.
00:12:20.140 Everyone was feeling that on Wednesday night.
00:12:23.640 And that it's just it is a huge stage.
00:12:28.240 Part of the reason that the debates matter so much, so much of a presidential debate is and so much of a presidential campaign is driven by the media cycle, is driven by what the news chooses to cover.
00:12:41.580 And look, our corporate media is thoroughly corrupt.
00:12:45.060 And so if you have a campaign that you're trying to drive a message, it can be maddeningly infuriating when the media is doing everything they can to frustrate your message and push the message they want.
00:12:56.060 And debates are one of the very few instances where you can go around the media gatekeepers and go straight to the voters.
00:13:02.660 And they, in the course of a presidential campaign, debates have the power to change the entire trajectory of a debate, either to take a candidate out.
00:13:13.760 Look, if you remember in 2016, the New Hampshire debate where Chris Christie went after Marco Rubio.
00:13:19.260 And I was standing just a few feet away from from Christie.
00:13:24.300 And I got to tell you, look, it's it's it's it may be the only time in my life I've been physically present for homicide.
00:13:31.720 I mean, holy cow, Christie went after him.
00:13:36.440 And I kind of just sort of step back.
00:13:38.940 I sort of figuratively pulled out a newspaper and just kind of read my newspaper and said, you know, never mind, proceed.
00:13:46.240 I'm not saying stop.
00:13:47.140 Just just leave me out of this.
00:13:49.800 And it was and Christie just he wouldn't give up.
00:13:53.140 I mean, he just kept pounding and pounding.
00:13:56.100 And, you know, there were there were a few of us thinking, all right, enough, Christie.
00:14:00.000 You made your point.
00:14:01.180 But it was it it changed the course of of that debate in that campaign.
00:14:06.140 There are other moments where where a candidate soars and and they can suddenly get get energy.
00:14:16.720 You know, if you remember one of the early debates where where John Harwood from CNBC was blasting every candidate and just being nasty was insulting.
00:14:28.380 Every candidate was was drippingly condescending as I remember the left wing reporter.
00:14:34.460 And it came to me and I just unloaded on him.
00:14:38.520 And and my point was, look, dude, this is not about you.
00:14:42.260 This is not your chance.
00:14:44.060 You're a friggin Marxist.
00:14:45.700 You intend to vote for the Democrat.
00:14:47.300 You want everyone on this stage to lose.
00:14:49.360 And you're just insulting every person here.
00:14:52.060 But you know what?
00:14:53.300 The American people and Republican primary voters actually give a damn.
00:14:56.540 And and I kind of took his head off.
00:15:00.280 And I got to tell you, the impact on our campaign was astonishing.
00:15:03.160 I mean, we had that night, like as the debate was ongoing, suddenly our fundraising exploded.
00:15:10.160 I think I think we raised over a million bucks the next day.
00:15:12.760 I mean, it was people saw it.
00:15:16.300 Yeah, it was the moment.
00:15:17.340 I remember watching it and I was sitting there when that happened and I was watching it.
00:15:21.820 And obviously I was yelling at the TV.
00:15:23.180 I was there at that debate and we were I was back in a green room getting ready to TV afterwards.
00:15:28.440 And it was like that is a moment that everybody in the room was writing down on their notebook because everyone referenced it that night on TV.
00:15:35.600 Like this was a moment in the debate that no one was going to forget.
00:15:40.400 Well, and and the mechanics of what happens when you have a moment that that resonates, your fundraising explodes.
00:15:48.900 And I remember we went back out on the roads and suddenly our crowds that had been three, four hundred became a thousand.
00:15:56.580 Like like it, it the impact was almost instantaneous that that that people are like, hey, I want to see what this campaign is about.
00:16:04.920 And so there's very little in a campaign that has the potential of a debate to change the underlying dynamic powerfully.
00:16:17.160 And last night, as I said, I don't think anyone had a disqualifying gaffe that killed them.
00:16:26.440 I don't think anyone had a dominant breakout.
00:16:29.140 But I but I do think Vivek had the best performance of the night.
00:16:32.260 And is that because we didn't know him?
00:16:35.160 I mean, it's easier for people to go notice you if they haven't seen you before.
00:16:39.420 Everybody else on stage, people had kind of seen.
00:16:41.840 I thought it was one of those moments where it's like, oh, I noticed you now in the room.
00:16:45.840 And you look like I think part of it was this.
00:16:49.060 He looked like he was genuinely having fun and happy to be there.
00:16:52.520 He was having a blast.
00:16:53.940 The two people who had the most fun on that stage were Vivek and Chris Christie.
00:16:58.040 Yeah. And listen, Christie has the advantage.
00:17:00.800 He's done this before, and it's just different when you've done it before.
00:17:03.800 He was the one least scared to be there.
00:17:06.980 And he walked out on that stage and his objective is to beat the crap out of Donald Trump.
00:17:12.440 And he's just going to stand there and just pound Trump.
00:17:15.140 And that's that's what he's decided to do.
00:17:17.140 And he was having fun with it.
00:17:19.200 Vivek is smart.
00:17:20.920 And and he I'm sure he was nervous, but he seemed very relaxed.
00:17:27.120 It was actually impressive to be to to come across as relaxed as he as he did, given what what surely were the nerves he was feeling.
00:17:36.020 Now, you asked about the prep session.
00:17:38.080 So so everyone prepares differently.
00:17:41.200 Often people prepare by they will sit down and do a moot and they will get other people to play the other candidates.
00:17:48.140 And and that can be it.
00:17:51.940 We did a little bit of it at the beginning, but that's not actually how we did our principal preparation.
00:17:57.180 So fairly early on our debate prep, we would typically spend at least a full day and sometimes two full days preparing for a debate.
00:18:07.360 And and we just block the time off and not be out campaigning, not doing fundraisers, just just be locked in a conference room.
00:18:13.880 And and I treated debate prep the same way I treated Supreme Court oral arguments.
00:18:20.420 So I've argued nine cases in front of the Supreme Court.
00:18:23.280 I've done a lot of oral argument preps and sort of like for a Supreme Court oral argument.
00:18:28.780 Many people do moots where you stand up and have people pretend to be Supreme Court justices and ask questions.
00:18:33.880 And I've done a lot of those.
00:18:35.080 But actually, particularly as I did more and more arguments, I tended to favor getting really, really smart people in the room and then talking through, OK, what do we want to do?
00:18:48.640 So let me let me address it from the Supreme Court perspective first and then then apply it to the debate.
00:18:53.040 So for a Supreme Court oral argument, I'd have a really smart team of lawyers, Supreme Court advocates, experienced constitutional lawyers sitting around the table.
00:19:01.920 And I'd be one question I would always ask is, all right, what are our must raise points?
00:19:07.340 What are the points where if when my argument is done and I sit down, I have not said I'm going to kick myself?
00:19:15.260 I'm going to be like, you idiot.
00:19:16.600 You had to say this point.
00:19:18.500 And so I would go into any oral argument with a one pager of typically three to five must raise points that I thought were the most important points.
00:19:29.280 They were what I wanted the justices to hear and know.
00:19:31.940 And I was going to make sure to make them.
00:19:33.980 That's part of debate prep, figuring out, OK, what are what are the points that are most important for you to say?
00:19:40.280 Another part of debate prep is what's your strategy?
00:19:45.040 And there are different times.
00:19:46.200 So I'll tell you how we would approach it.
00:19:47.820 We would talk about whether you want to how vigorously you want to engage with other candidates on the stage.
00:19:57.200 And that depends on on strategically and tactically where you are.
00:20:01.840 There were debates where we said, OK, we're going to mix it up.
00:20:05.260 We're going to.
00:20:05.820 And the analogy we always used is we're going to scrape some paint off the doors.
00:20:09.360 We're going to get out in a demolition derby and mix it up and take some shots and have some shots back and forth.
00:20:15.660 And that there are times when you need to do that.
00:20:19.820 I think the DeSantis camp expected the other candidates to be coming at him and mixing it up a little.
00:20:28.660 And they didn't.
00:20:29.400 So so much like Sherlock Holmes, some of what was interesting about the debate were the dogs that didn't bark.
00:20:36.980 Very few of the candidates attacked Ron DeSantis.
00:20:39.980 And so I think all of the other people on that stage view DeSantis as their principal impediment.
00:20:45.020 But but they really didn't go after him directly.
00:20:48.560 What is interesting also is very few of the candidates went after Donald Trump.
00:20:55.020 It was actually fascinating.
00:20:57.340 Yeah, I was a little Trump's name was said, said in that room.
00:21:01.460 Look, the guy's got a 30, 40 point lead in the polls.
00:21:05.500 And yet now, look, you have some exceptions.
00:21:08.200 Chris Christie, whatever, you know, you ask him what time of day it is.
00:21:11.320 The time is Trump is terrible.
00:21:12.580 OK, fine, that's that's what Christie's going to say.
00:21:15.920 But the other candidates, DeSantis, if he criticized Trump, I don't remember it.
00:21:23.100 It wasn't much of anything.
00:21:26.200 Vivek, I can't remember any criticism of Trump at all.
00:21:29.400 No, he said he was the best president of the 21st century.
00:21:31.820 He was making it very clear from the beginning.
00:21:33.680 I'm not here to make Trump supporters hate me.
00:21:36.700 I think that's right.
00:21:37.980 And a lot of people have speculated that the role Vivek is doing is is is being something of a stalking horse for Trump.
00:21:44.320 That that that and and I don't know if that's true or not.
00:21:48.320 But but he was certainly full throatedly defending Trump.
00:21:53.040 Look, I remember back to 2016 and there were portions of the debates early on where I made a conscious decision not to go at Trump, not to vigorously engage Trump.
00:22:05.600 And Trump and I early in the primary had a very good relationship, a very friendly relationship.
00:22:10.480 It drove the media crazy because they wanted me to blast him.
00:22:12.980 And I wasn't doing that.
00:22:15.280 There were later stages in the debate.
00:22:17.220 Look, what came down to basically a two man battle between me and Trump, both he and I took the gloves off and began smacking the hell out of each other.
00:22:26.000 And and and it changed based on where the race was and who the relative players are.
00:22:33.200 I thought it was interesting that almost nobody was trying to prosecute a case.
00:22:41.560 Number one, that they have a stronger record than Trump.
00:22:44.960 So DeSantis made the case that he had a great record as Florida, but he had very little comparative of his record versus Trump's, which I expected more of that in the debate.
00:22:53.860 And almost nobody other than, again, Christie made the case that they had a better chance of winning than Trump.
00:23:05.580 I guess Nikki Haley did, too.
00:23:07.700 Yeah, but but but Haley is is running for the the moderate establishment lane.
00:23:13.120 And and and so the argument she was making was not it wasn't surprising.
00:23:20.220 But but I found it interesting how little of that we saw on Wednesday night.
00:23:24.400 The biggest shock for me was honestly the the lack of of distinguishing one candidate from the other.
00:23:32.420 And that's something that you did a very good job of back in 2016 was making it clear who you were as a candidate walking away from last night.
00:23:40.720 And I don't feel like any of these candidates really left an impression of how I am very different or unique from the others on the stage.
00:23:50.100 I mean, there was there were moments, yes, where it was like, for example, where Vivek, you know, proudly raised his hand and said he would support Donald Trump as a nominee, even if he was, you know, convicted.
00:23:59.980 That was one of those moments.
00:24:01.600 And then you saw it, which was turned into a meme.
00:24:05.020 It's been all over the Internet over the last two days of the other candidates trying to figure out what they're going to do.
00:24:10.300 And it was probably bad timing because for our bad placement for DeSantis, because right next to him and you see DeSantis look to his right, look to his left.
00:24:18.960 And then he's like, OK, everybody else raise their hand.
00:24:20.920 I'll raise mine halfway to as well.
00:24:23.580 That didn't look good for him.
00:24:26.040 DeSantis hesitated.
00:24:27.320 That hesitation was not a good moment.
00:24:29.160 That that is others are going to use that against him, the hesitation.
00:24:33.560 What I actually thought one of the most interesting moments of the debate happened right after that, where Vivek came back and said and he said it to Pence.
00:24:45.440 He said, if I'm elected, I will pardon Donald Trump.
00:24:51.060 Will you do the same?
00:24:53.400 And I got to tell you, I was surprised.
00:24:55.520 And I think it was a strategic mistake by every other candidate on that stage not to respond.
00:25:02.800 Hell, yes.
00:25:03.660 Like, the answer should have been, absolutely, I will pardon Donald Trump on January 20th, 2025.
00:25:13.520 Why?
00:25:14.120 Because this prosecution is an abuse of power.
00:25:17.440 This is Merrick Garland and Joe Biden who don't trust the voters.
00:25:20.820 They are abusing the justice system.
00:25:23.000 These indictments are a sham.
00:25:24.860 And the voters ought to decide.
00:25:27.520 And so if I'm elected, we're going to end this abuse of power.
00:25:31.560 And even if a candidate on that stage despises Donald Trump, that was a, it was a hanging curveball.
00:25:41.880 And I was genuinely surprised that nobody took that opportunity because that was a moment to shine and nobody jumped on it.
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00:27:17.880 Senator, I want to ask you one other question about debates because, I mean, rarely do you get to talk to somebody
00:27:22.900 and pull back the curtain who's actually done this before.
00:27:25.600 If you're leaving this first debate, what changes then going into the next debate?
00:27:32.540 If you're any of these candidates now, what do they have to do and what could they take away from this?
00:27:38.500 And how much do you think the next debate will change because of what they learned two nights ago?
00:27:45.140 Well, I think each of the candidates is going to come out in a different place.
00:27:49.660 For the candidates that didn't gain momentum, they're going to feel a greater urgency.
00:27:55.620 Look, the next debate is going to have a higher threshold, a higher threshold of polling to get in, a higher threshold of donors.
00:28:01.820 I expect the next debate to have fewer candidates on the stage.
00:28:06.520 I suspect at least two of the candidates who were there on Wednesday night will not be there at the next debate.
00:28:11.960 When you're not gaining traction, it impacts every part of the campaign.
00:28:21.440 It impacts your large-dollar fundraising.
00:28:24.180 Donors are following this, and if they think you have momentum, they're excited and eager to write a check.
00:28:28.740 And if they think you don't have momentum, suddenly the money dries up.
00:28:32.220 The small-dollar fundraising, I mean, it is an amazing – when people are energized, when you've got grassroots activists that are really exciting – look, I've got to tell you, towards the end of my campaign in 2016, we had online over a million bucks a day coming in.
00:28:49.960 And it was – people were just excited.
00:28:52.620 They went to my website, they contributed, and it – you know, we ended up raising $92 million, which is still to date the most money any Republican has ever raised in the history of presidential primaries.
00:29:04.700 We raised more than George W. Bush or Mitt Romney or John McCain.
00:29:08.320 When you've got momentum, it rolls aggressively, but it unrolls just as vigorously.
00:29:15.700 And so for the candidates that didn't have a moment that energized their supporters, they're going to find when they're out on the trail, their crowds are smaller.
00:29:26.880 They go to an event, and maybe last week they had 50 people, and tomorrow they have 25.
00:29:35.480 And that can be a hard – look, if you remember one hard moment in 2016 when Jeb Bush, when his campaign towards the end,
00:29:44.660 he was giving a talk, and he said – and people were not responding, and he said, please clap.
00:29:50.360 Yeah.
00:29:50.500 And it was – that can be really tough.
00:29:54.920 But, like, momentum is real in a campaign, and when it's with you, it feels great, and when it's going away, it sucks.
00:30:03.680 And different candidates from Wednesday night are feeling the good and the bad of that.
00:30:10.640 And each debate, it kind of ratchets up another level.
00:30:15.520 It's sort of like – you know, it's sort of like different rounds of March Madness with the playoff.
00:30:21.420 As it gets to the next level, the stakes keep going up and up.
00:30:25.880 If you're Donald Trump, do you continue with this I'm not showing up for the debates based on what you just saw?
00:30:32.140 Would you show up for the next one, or would you say hell no?
00:30:36.900 Absolutely he will skip the next debate.
00:30:38.840 I think it's 100%.
00:30:40.020 From his perspective, from his campaign's perspective, skipping it was a complete win.
00:30:45.820 What could have changed – you remember in 2016 he skipped the Iowa debate?
00:30:49.980 Yeah.
00:30:50.240 And he was mad – he was mad at Megyn Kelly, and he skipped the Iowa debate.
00:30:55.960 And then the Iowa caucus happened, and I beat him.
00:30:58.880 He didn't skip the next debate.
00:31:00.700 Like, if you see an electoral result that is not good for your side, then you change your path.
00:31:08.560 From Trump's perspective, why would he change?
00:31:11.100 This was – it was a calculated gamble.
00:31:13.040 If someone had had a breakout moment on Wednesday, if someone had sizzled and gained a ton of momentum,
00:31:23.540 you could see the Trump team reevaluating.
00:31:27.320 If Ron DeSantis had clearly been in a different league from everyone else and made clear that he's the principal alternative to Trump
00:31:35.620 and people had rallied behind DeSantis, that could have caused the Trump team to reevaluate.
00:31:40.600 If someone else had had a moment that just lit everything – if someone had made an indictment,
00:31:48.080 and I don't mean an indictment in the legal sense, but a political indictment of Trump,
00:31:52.620 had prosecuted the case that they would be a better nominee to win in November and lead the country than Trump,
00:32:01.840 if someone had really lit it up, you could imagine the Trump team saying,
00:32:07.520 okay, you need to get on that stage and fight back against so-and-so.
00:32:12.140 I didn't see anything on Wednesday that's going to cause them to reevaluate,
00:32:16.100 and so I think unless and until something changes significantly,
00:32:20.100 my expectation is Trump is not showing up at any of these debates.
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00:32:50.660 Listen to the Honest Talk podcast on iHeartRadio or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
00:32:56.340 Well, the good news is if you had a bad night on the debate stage, 20 hours later, no one was talking about you.
00:33:01.600 If you had a good night on the debate stage, the bad news for you is no one was talking about you afterwards
00:33:05.820 because of Donald Trump having to head down to Georgia.
00:33:10.800 Not only do we have, for the first time in history, a president who has an actual mugshot,
00:33:16.900 which has now become probably the most iconic political picture in history.
00:33:21.200 People are already selling shirts with it and hats with it.
00:33:23.760 It's actually hysterical.
00:33:26.200 But Donald Trump also came out after this happened, after he turned himself in.
00:33:31.940 And this is what he had to say as he was about to get on the plane leaving Atlanta.
00:33:36.960 It's a very sad day for America.
00:33:38.540 This should never happen.
00:33:40.120 If you challenge an election, you should be able to challenge an election.
00:33:43.540 I thought the election was a rigged election, a stolen election.
00:33:46.480 And I should have every right to do that.
00:33:49.240 As you know, you have many people that you've been watching over the years do the same thing,
00:33:53.020 whether it's Hillary Clinton or Stacey Abrams or many others.
00:33:57.120 When you have that great freedom to challenge, you have to be able to.
00:34:01.600 Otherwise, you're going to have very dishonest elections.
00:34:03.640 What has taken place here is a travesty of justice.
00:34:06.840 We did nothing wrong.
00:34:07.800 I did nothing wrong.
00:34:09.100 And everybody knows that I've never had such support.
00:34:11.560 And that goes with the other ones, too.
00:34:13.940 What they're doing is election interference.
00:34:15.820 They're trying to interfere with an election.
00:34:18.560 There's never been anything like it in our country before.
00:34:22.040 This is their way of campaigning.
00:34:24.420 And this is one instance, but you have three other instances.
00:34:27.300 It's election interference.
00:34:29.460 So I want to thank you for being here.
00:34:31.520 We did nothing wrong at all.
00:34:33.480 And we have every right, every single right, to challenge an election that we think is dishonest,
00:34:39.560 that we think it's very dishonest.
00:34:41.280 So thank you all very much, and I'll see you very soon.
00:34:44.380 Thank you very much.
00:34:45.900 The president was pretty cool, calm, and collected.
00:34:48.080 His mug shot, he looked like he was pretty irritated.
00:34:50.460 I can imagine why.
00:34:53.840 This, to me, was one of those moments where I'm still in shock by it, honestly.
00:34:57.900 Like, I'm not shocked at what the left has done.
00:35:00.000 But when I see this happen, this is when I say the Democratic Party is dead.
00:35:03.760 They're now communists and socialists.
00:35:05.340 This has been in a republic-esque.
00:35:06.860 I still cannot believe that the rest of the world, and this does make me very angry,
00:35:12.760 is now watching as America is losing its way in indicting a former president.
00:35:18.320 How is this not, one, election interference?
00:35:21.040 And how big of a fall is this for this country in general?
00:35:24.140 Look, Trump is exactly right in what he said there.
00:35:29.400 This is blatant election interference.
00:35:31.340 This is partisan and political.
00:35:33.040 The Democrats, both at the federal level and state level, hate Donald Trump.
00:35:40.000 They're blinded by their rage.
00:35:42.400 And they're using the justice system.
00:35:44.860 Listen, in this podcast we've discussed at great length, each of the four indictments.
00:35:49.540 And so you can go back and listen to earlier podcasts if you want an analysis of each of them,
00:35:53.480 because we've broken them down on a level that you can't get on CNN or CBS or ABC or NBC.
00:36:00.000 And all of them, I think, are garbage.
00:36:03.360 They are partisan and political, particularly when you put it in the broader framework,
00:36:08.040 which is that our country is more than two centuries old.
00:36:11.000 We've never previously indicted a president of the United States, a former president of the United States,
00:36:15.640 a major candidate for president of the United States.
00:36:17.780 And in less than a year, the Democrats have done so four separate times.
00:36:22.580 And you use the phrase banana republic.
00:36:25.740 That's what this is.
00:36:26.900 They, the Democrats, don't trust the voters.
00:36:30.320 The reason they're indicting Donald Trump over and over again is they're afraid he could win in November.
00:36:36.260 And they want to use the legal system to hurt him.
00:36:40.240 And I think it is absolutely outrageous.
00:36:43.820 I will say also, look, there are a lot of things that you and I and many people like about Donald Trump.
00:36:51.340 One of the things I like is that he's got enormous guts and he's willing to fight the media.
00:36:54.780 He's willing to fight the Democrats.
00:36:56.760 One of the things which I also respect is the guy is a marketing and branding genius.
00:37:02.660 And I got to say just the timing of, number one, you have a debate of all of his rivals, his rivals.
00:37:09.160 And he simultaneously does an interview with Tucker Carlson on Twitter or on X, whatever it's called.
00:37:17.620 That was a very strong and effective move.
00:37:21.500 Number two, the day after the debate, he promptly goes and turns himself in and has his mugshot released.
00:37:30.720 That was an even stronger move.
00:37:33.700 And then number three, he returns to Twitter.
00:37:36.940 And his first tweet is a tweet of his mugshot, which basically broke Twitter.
00:37:46.980 That combination sucks all of the energy out of every other candidate.
00:37:54.560 And listen, one challenge that every candidate in this race, not named Donald J.
00:37:59.600 Trump, faces is the difficulty of driving even 10 seconds of discussion or narrative because Trump, by design, seizes and dominates the discussion.
00:38:12.240 And I think the last 24 hours are as good an illustration of it as we've ever seen.
00:38:17.980 I laugh because the Babylon Bee put up pictures of everybody on stage last night and said, Republicans gather to debate who will lose to Trump in a distant second.
00:38:26.880 And then you see what he did and how smart he was with this if you're Donald Trump.
00:38:30.960 And it's like, play stupid games, win stupid prizes for the Democrats.
00:38:35.840 I'm referencing that.
00:38:37.120 It's like, if you guys keep doing this, you seem to just be helping Donald Trump.
00:38:41.660 Now, there's also many Democrats go, yeah, that's exactly what we want.
00:38:45.980 We want Donald Trump to get the nomination.
00:38:48.280 We're not stupid.
00:38:49.360 We know exactly what we're doing when we indict him.
00:38:52.480 Could this be one of the biggest political backfires ever?
00:38:55.360 Democrats, yes, look, 100% the Democrats want Trump to get the nomination, 100% the corporate media wants Trump to get the nomination.
00:39:04.920 They believe he cannot win in November.
00:39:08.380 I don't think that's right.
00:39:09.860 I think Trump absolutely can win in November, and I think he can lose also.
00:39:14.000 We're a very polarized country, and it's clear there are a lot of voters that love Trump and a lot of voters that hate Trump.
00:39:19.320 And so I don't know what happens in a general, but I think in the ecosphere, the bubble that is the left wing, that is Democrats and the media, everyone they know thinks Donald Trump is Hitler.
00:39:35.940 And so they want him to be the nominee.
00:39:37.800 If he ends up winning in November, I have to say the meltdown we saw in 2016, the Rachel Maddows of the world basically having a nervous breakdown on television, I think would be utterly dwarfed by the reaction if Trump wins again in November.
00:39:57.140 We'll see what happens, but I've got to say the media desperately want him to be the nominee.
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00:41:52.480 Last question I've got to ask you, Senator, is this.
00:41:55.840 We're now seeing that they're rushing these prosecutors and these people that are coming after Trump.
00:42:01.340 This is the fourth indictment.
00:42:02.880 They're wanting to pack all this into the presidential election cycle.
00:42:06.920 We've seen this.
00:42:07.940 It's very clear.
00:42:09.240 They want to put him in court and sit on the campaign trail.
00:42:12.420 That's election interference by definition.
00:42:15.900 Is there, A, anything Trump can do to delay?
00:42:18.360 And then the other question is, if he is elected, could he still go to jail?
00:42:24.120 How would that work if they do find a jury in New York, which is not an insane idea, or in Delaware or in Atlanta, to actually say he's guilty?
00:42:34.200 How does that work now, knowing everything?
00:42:36.480 Yeah, look, we are in uncharted territory.
00:42:39.680 The short answer is nobody knows.
00:42:41.340 This has never happened before.
00:42:43.300 I think there is a very real chance we will see one or more trials between now and November.
00:42:48.200 And I think there is a very real chance, particularly in D.C., in New York, or in Atlanta, I think we could see convictions.
00:43:01.500 We've talked about how the judges and or the juries in those respective places are not favorable.
00:43:08.240 I don't expect the convictions to be upheld on appeal, but the appeals could take years.
00:43:14.860 And so I think there is a very real risk that we get to November of next year and Trump will have endured a trial and have been convicted and the matter will not be resolved on appeal.
00:43:27.540 What happens when you're convicted of a crime?
00:43:30.960 It varies.
00:43:32.020 Sometimes your sentence will be stayed pending the appeal.
00:43:36.640 Sometimes it won't.
00:43:37.820 I would anticipate that no one would try to incarcerate or no one would succeed in incarcerating Trump before the appeal had run its course.
00:43:48.120 But look, these wild-eyed prosecutors, actually, when I said no one would try, as soon as I said that, I didn't really believe that because they're brazen enough I think they would try.
00:43:58.320 I think the odds are decent the appellate courts would say, no, we're not going to let Trump go to prison while the appeal is pending.
00:44:09.180 We're going to wait to resolve the appeal.
00:44:11.340 That's what I would expect.
00:44:12.580 But this is uncharted territory.
00:44:15.240 And by the way, there's nothing in the law that prevents a candidate for president being incarcerated in jail.
00:44:24.860 There's nothing in the law that prevents the Republican nominee or the Democrat nominee for president being incarcerated and in prison.
00:44:32.880 There's nothing in the law that prevents the sitting president of the United States from being incarcerated.
00:44:38.080 Now, the Secret Service would have an aneurysm.
00:44:40.400 I don't know how that would actually mechanically work if you have the sitting president of the United States in Sing Sing next to murderers.
00:44:48.080 That's part of why this is such uncharted territory.
00:44:54.100 I don't think that will happen.
00:44:56.100 But as I said, I do think there's a real risk of a conviction, a trial and a conviction before Election Day.
00:45:01.820 All right.
00:45:01.940 I want to ask you something, Ben.
00:45:03.440 Yeah.
00:45:04.040 So the mugshot, the mugshot is going to be an iconic picture.
00:45:09.640 And Trump obviously has an expression of pissed off, angry badass.
00:45:15.840 It's a different approach.
00:45:18.360 If you remember different presidential or political mugshots, if you remember Rick Perry, if you remember Tom DeLay.
00:45:26.100 Yeah.
00:45:26.560 Both of them were indicted.
00:45:28.160 Yep.
00:45:28.640 Both of them had mugshots and both of them took the same approach, which is they grinned.
00:45:33.100 They smiled widely like a political headshot.
00:45:37.900 And my question to you is, should Trump have smiled or should he have looked as pissed off as he was?
00:45:46.060 And I don't think there's an absolute clear answer.
00:45:48.600 I have an inclination, but I'm curious what you think.
00:45:51.620 Yeah, I think that exactly how he took that picture is exactly why he should, because one of the things that's going viral, and this actually has happened while we've been recording, is somebody I know put that picture up underneath it, all capital letters, LEGEND, and it's now gone to like 280,000 retweets.
00:46:09.100 This is going to be on, I mean, now there's like 15 people since we've been doing this, taping this, that have put out t-shirts that say Rockstar Legend.
00:46:17.220 And, you know, I stand with him.
00:46:20.060 I think this was the perfect look of watch me now.
00:46:24.140 You think it was four years of me trying to drain the swamp?
00:46:27.560 You have no idea what's coming for you, Washington.
00:46:29.960 I would have played it this way.
00:46:31.720 I think it's a brilliant mugshot for him.
00:46:35.200 Well, it's why he has the media and marketing and branding instincts that he does.
00:46:42.260 And you're right, it's going viral and it's making a heck of a statement.
00:46:45.540 Yeah, LEGEND is the one that just made me laugh.
00:46:47.620 I was like, yep, that's the one.
00:46:49.200 These will be at the next Trump rally and there'll be vendors out there selling this mugshot on every t-shirt and every hat they can get their hat on.
00:46:57.680 And by the way, do you remember with the first indictment, the Alvin Bragg indictment, where the Trump team was saying they wanted a mugshot?
00:47:08.480 Yeah, I think they had decided that this that was and by the way, the Alvin Bragg one, which seems like a long time ago, was the first indictment.
00:47:16.460 We said on verdict at the time, Trump will go up 10 points in the polls in the primary.
00:47:20.880 And that's exactly what happened.
00:47:22.200 We predicted it when the Bragg indictment came down.
00:47:25.640 And and and I think the Trump campaign was disappointed.
00:47:28.300 They didn't get a mugshot there.
00:47:30.020 And and so ironically, I think they're very happy to have the mugshot now.
00:47:34.300 All right.
00:47:34.820 I'm going to ask you this question.
00:47:36.000 Another prediction.
00:47:37.040 Then when the polls come out post debate post this this indictment mugshot, who moves up the most?
00:47:43.280 And and and does Trump get even higher in the polls than he is now?
00:47:47.040 I don't know that Trump goes materially higher, although, I mean, he's he's at a pretty dominant position right now.
00:47:54.200 My guess is Ramaswamy up the most.
00:47:57.700 Wouldn't surprise me to see him pick up four or five points.
00:48:01.000 Wouldn't surprise me to see Nikki Haley pick up three points.
00:48:06.240 Wouldn't surprise me to see Pence pick up one or two points.
00:48:09.520 And that probably comes mostly at the expense of DeSantis, maybe some at the expense of Tim Scott's and maybe a little bit at the expense of Trump.
00:48:21.320 But I'm not sure.
00:48:22.940 I kind of feel like the people on that stage are fishing in a different pond than Trump is.
00:48:27.900 Yeah, no doubt about it.
00:48:29.640 Don't forget, we do this show Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
00:48:33.340 So make sure you hit that follow and or subscribe button.
00:48:36.280 And on those days when we don't publish, we've never said this before, and we probably should have said it more.
00:48:40.460 I do a podcast, Ben Ferguson podcast.
00:48:42.720 Make sure you download that wherever you get your podcast is.
00:48:46.000 I do a unique podcast on the on those days in between.
00:48:49.520 So if you're looking for something to keep you updated in between our Monday, Wednesday and Friday, make sure you download the Ben Ferguson podcast as well.
00:48:55.960 And we will see you back here in a couple of days.
00:48:59.580 This is an iHeart podcast.
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