Western Standard - AB REPORT： Conflicting Polls： Who’s in the lead？

00:00:00.000 G'day, I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching

00:00:14.340 the Alberta Report, our daily updates on the Alberta election campaign trail. I'm joined

00:00:20.520 today by Western Standard News Editor Dave Naylor. How are you, Dave?

00:00:24.480 Happy Monday.

00:00:25.000 We've also got one of the Western Standard's Calgary reporters in here today, Jonathan

00:00:31.080 Bradley. Hey, Jonathan.

00:00:32.560 Doing good. I'll be here too.

00:00:34.160 I didn't ask that. We will be joined in a moment as well, though, by Western Standard business

00:00:39.340 reporter out of our Calgary office, Sean Polzer. We're going to be talking about a third NDP

00:00:45.120 candidate in the election here who's now been exposed with explicit communist or communist

00:00:49.080 party links. We're going to talk about the latest polls. They're finally starting to conflict

00:00:54.360 with another. They've all been kind of grouped up, saying more or less the same thing. Now

00:00:57.740 they're starting to show slightly different things. As well as an NDP candidate in the

00:01:05.460 Calgary area compared Alberta's oil to slavery and said that Albertans are a bunch of oil

00:01:10.620 entitled rednecks. I actually agree. I didn't know that it was a pejorative thing.

00:01:14.960 All right. So, yeah, sure. Of course. Of course we are.

00:01:18.880 Much to the point.

00:01:20.220 Yeah. I didn't know that was an insult. Before we get going, though, I just want to thank

00:01:23.320 my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting Sports Association. I've been a member of the CSSA for

00:01:28.280 over a decade, trusting them to defend my rights as a firearms owner, as Canada's leading firearms

00:01:33.240 rights organization. If you're not yet a member, go to cssa-cila.org or Google them like I do and click on

00:01:40.420 membership and join today. It's absolutely crucial for gun owners to band together to defend their

00:01:45.920 rights to possess firearms in Canada. Okay. We're to start with you, Jonathan. This was actually

00:01:54.100 your exclusive story. We've had two NDP candidates so far that you've managed to find evidence,

00:02:02.520 photographic and otherwise, of links to communism or communist parties. Rod Loyola and another

00:02:09.100 candidate so far. But you have a third one that you came up with just this weekend.

00:02:14.180 Yes. So this candidate is Gurinder Brar. He's running in Calgary Northeast. And the evidence

00:02:19.560 I was provided to show that he had connections to communism was some of his Facebook posts that he

00:02:25.340 made. So he made one Facebook post in 2016 sharing a post honoring former Chinese President Mao Zedong,

00:02:34.160 who was involved with the Cultural Revolution. And Mao was involved with it, led it, led the Cultural

00:02:40.900 Revolution, led the Cultural Revolution, some involvement, which we should mention, had a death

00:02:45.340 poll that in the minimum, minimum estimates has several tens of millions of murdered people,

00:02:52.040 murdered Chinese people. So the first post was a quote from Mao talking about armed revolution.

00:02:57.960 And Gurinder Brar shared it with the caption, for those who say armed wars and dissolution,

00:03:03.100 read carefully. The second post that he shared about was pro-communism was he shared a meme

00:03:08.020 juxtaposing Santa Claus and Karl Marx and was joking about Santa Marx and how Santa Marx is going to take

00:03:14.140 all of the children's toys and redistribute them equally. And then the third post was another quote from

00:03:18.740 Mao talking about who are people's friends, who are people's enemies. This is the first question that you

00:03:24.100 need to think about before you engage in a revolution. This is another Mao quote. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not

00:03:31.000 sure. I think a lot of people don't know really what the Cultural Revolution was. But yes, yeah, under

00:03:36.120 by even the most conservative estimates, Mao Zedong, communist dictator of China, has at least quite a few

00:03:45.000 holocausts to his name of murdered people under under his rule. And he has the NDP issued any kind of

00:03:56.420 statement, retraction, apology for one of their candidates promoting things from the individual

00:04:02.280 who probably has killed more people than anyone else in human history. Yeah. Easily outdoing Hitler and 0.88

00:04:08.780 probably easily outdoing even Stalin and Genghis Khan. Nothing. I haven't seen anything from the

00:04:15.680 NDP. Haven't seen anything from the candidate. When I contacted the candidate, actually, I decided to

00:04:20.800 phone the campaign office and all that I got was one of his campaign volunteers saying, okay, I'll send

00:04:25.380 him a text right now and we'll see if he gets back to you. And that's that's it. Has the NDP issued any

00:04:30.620 kind of statement distancing themselves from Mao? Absolutely nothing. Dave, I feel like we have this

00:04:37.580 conversation every day on Alberta report. It's like a pattern is developing, isn't it? You know, when

00:04:42.680 you find one red under the bed, and there's two reds under the bed and three reds under the bed.

00:04:48.620 I can only just wonder if there might be more. I mean, we've discovered three who knows how many

00:04:57.740 are underneath there. Dave, have you seen a peep anywhere in the government funded and legacy media

00:05:04.740 about now the third communist candidate? No, it continues radio silence and I wouldn't expect them

00:05:13.860 to touch it at all. I feel like we're having this conversation almost every day for the last few days.

00:05:20.840 I'm kind of running out of ways to phrase this to you, but why the hell is this not news? I mean, if a UCP

00:05:27.160 candidate was discovered with even the vaguest, most tangential sympathy towards Nazism, this would

00:05:34.340 be front page news, probably national news. He'd be fired as a candidate and the party probably doomed

00:05:40.760 on election day. But here we can't get so much as a footnote from a single one of the government funded

00:05:47.560 media in Alberta. And I feel like that wouldn't have happened even four years ago. They were bad four

00:05:53.700 years ago. But I feel like I feel like something's changed. Why the hell is it just zero? Like this is

00:05:59.820 clearly relevant news. Well, you've got to consider the source, Derek. It's us. And the mainstream media

00:06:05.040 does not like us. They don't like us in any way, shape or form, because we're coming in and we're

00:06:09.740 mowing their lawn. And we're getting all the good election exclusives that they're not. So if they were

00:06:15.140 to follow one of our stories, it would mean they'd have to acknowledge our existence. And they don't

00:06:21.220 want to do that. Plus, the fact that the legacy, main legacy media is, is mainly a supporter of

00:06:28.220 Rachel Notley and the NDP. And that's the main reason you're not seeing anything in it.

00:06:32.860 So Jonathan, this is now the third communist or communist linked NDP candidate running in this

00:06:39.280 election that you found. Tell us quickly about the other two that you've unearthed.

00:06:43.640 So the first one was Rod Loyola, who's running in Edmonton, Ellerslie. And he was discovered to have

00:06:48.540 marched with the Communist Party of Canada Edmonton Club in a parade. I was provided with a photo

00:06:53.560 indicating it was him. He's clearly at the front of the pack. He's wearing a black hat, black jacket,

00:06:58.000 and black track pants. And what's interesting is Rod Loyola... Track pants. That means he's Russian.

00:07:07.500 Everyone knows Russians love wearing track pants. 0.98

00:07:09.320 And what's interesting, though, is that there's no timestamp when the photo was. I was unable to find

00:07:15.620 out when it was. But based on some of Rod Loyola's actions, it is credible. And in the photo, you can

00:07:20.400 clearly see that it is him walking in the parade. And the other... Well, he... We had... There had previously

00:07:25.140 been video of him praising Hugo... Having kind of a weird secular seance and prayer for Hugo Chavez after he

00:07:33.060 had passed away, the communist dictator of Venezuela. So we already knew he was kind of in there.

00:07:37.780 And he had performed as a pro-communism rapper in 2007, with songs honoring communist leaders

00:07:42.920 such as Che Guevara and Fidel Castro. That was a new... That was a new thing that you dug about

00:07:46.660 as well, right? No, no. That was from the last election, 2019. Oh, okay, okay. Yeah. All right.

00:07:52.080 And then, so... And who is behind communist door number two? Communist door number two is Diana

00:07:57.500 Badden, who's the NDP candidate in Calgary, Acadia. And she shared a... She retweeted a post from a

00:08:04.780 pro-communism account, which was called Vote Communism May 4th. And next to the name, there

00:08:11.020 were hammer and sickle symbols. So with that, she retweeted a pro-communism post honoring American

00:08:17.980 hacker Aaron Swartz, who had broke into MIT's information system to attempt to steal articles

00:08:24.460 from JSTOR, which is a scholarly database. And the post was basically honoring him and his work.

00:08:29.980 You know, normally we'd have a big long conversation about this, but it's just kind of the third

00:08:36.140 communist in as many, at least business days as we've had here. And to just absolutely zero

00:08:44.540 pickup from legacy media. Nothing. I mean, there have been times when we've done stories where

00:08:49.260 the mainstream media does end up picking it up. But like over the old college, like, oh, Western Standard

00:08:54.620 broke this or a Western Standard reporter, you know, asked this question and it led to this.

00:08:59.260 But radio silence on this. I mean, I haven't seen that many oppo stories done on candidates,

00:09:03.740 really, except for Kevin Mentigam, who we're going to talk about later.

00:09:06.940 Yeah. Okay. Thank you, Jonathan.

00:09:09.980 All right. Well, we've had a fair number of polls come out so far. And until extremely recently,

00:09:16.220 they've all been more or less saying the same thing. They've been off by a few points, but

00:09:21.260 they've always showed a narrow UCP lead. So, you know, losing seats, but still retaining

00:09:28.540 majority government, probably a fairly narrow one. But now we've got some conflicting ones.

00:09:33.500 So we've had we had Abacus Data come out. That's most of these polling firms are Eastern base,

00:09:39.500 but that doesn't mean they're not necessarily good. Abacus Data came out and it was the first

00:09:45.660 during the campaign so far that showed an NDP lead. Not a big one, but an NDP lead.

00:09:52.540 Actually, it is a big one.

00:09:53.500 Seven percent.

00:09:54.460 It's eight percent. They've got the NDP up seven points to 43 and the UCP down one to 35.

00:10:02.220 Okay. Okay. I stand corrected. And so that's a huge.

00:10:04.380 That's a huge.

00:10:05.180 That's almost a 10 point swing, because if they're seven ahead and they were behind before,

00:10:09.500 that's somewhat a 10 point swing. Entirely possible. It's correct. The Smith and UCP's

00:10:15.740 campaign have taken some battering as of late. Old quotes from Smith being resurfaced,

00:10:21.500 fairly or unfairly, having her say she's going to sell all the hospitals and that the unvaccinated

00:10:29.100 are so the vaccinated people are Nazis, which curious, just kind of the reverse of what Justin Trudeau

00:10:35.020 said of unvaccinated. And that apparently wasn't a big deal. But then we've got Main Street also out

00:10:41.900 very recently showing UCP still has a slight lead, a very slight lead and within the margin of error.

00:10:51.660 Let's take a look at the Abacus poll first, Dave. Big takeaways, obviously NDP in the lead,

00:10:57.580 but also leading in Calgary. Yes. To me, it's, it is such a swing, it defies credibility.

00:11:06.700 Especially when you've had all the other polls so close, you know, since the start of the election,

00:11:11.420 even before the election, they've always been one or two points apart or dead heats. And for all of a

00:11:16.780 sudden to gain seven points, where really, you know, you talked about some Daniel Smith stumbles,

00:11:24.220 I don't think there's seven point stumbles. Certainly, the there's been a lot of criticism

00:11:29.900 of the poll and social media by other experts who say it's not, it's not believable also. But

00:11:38.700 as you say, you never know. It's just a snapshot in time. It was a fairly small sample size. Generally,

00:11:46.540 for an Alberta poll, if it's less than 1000 people, less than 1000 completed surveys.

00:11:55.180 That's pretty small. I think this one was in the 800. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, so that's that's pretty

00:11:59.980 small. Abacus is more in the business of doing national polls. And, you know, so your provincial

00:12:06.300 sample sizes are a bit smaller. 800 is pretty small for it 1000 is where I think you start to get

00:12:12.220 relatively credible. And do we know how much what the sample size of the Main Street poll was?

00:12:18.940 To be honest, I don't. I thought it was about 1500. Yeah, that rings a bell.

00:12:26.860 So yeah, the Main Street still has UCP in a slight lead. Sean, the polls with,

00:12:35.180 you know, it's entirely possible the NDP does have a big lead as or reasonably bigish lead,

00:12:43.340 as Abacus is saying. But generally, there's a trend to get there. It doesn't flip overnight,

00:12:49.100 even if you have a big debate where one side crushes the other, you'll see some overnight

00:12:54.860 quick movement. But to get all the way from, you know, being behind to a seven point lead,

00:13:01.100 it takes a few days to get there. And we just hadn't seen this. I don't know, your take on the

00:13:08.220 Abacus poll. One of the questions that came up to me was the methodology. And because we've got a bit

00:13:16.460 of a demographic divide in this province as well. The UCP voters tend to be maybe a little older and

00:13:22.620 more established. Younger ones, you know, they don't have landlines, they're going off cell phones,

00:13:27.260 they're filling out web survey forms. So I was, I didn't have a chance to have a look at how they

00:13:33.260 actually conducted the poll. But it seemed to me that maybe they were using a slightly different

00:13:36.940 method than maybe some of the other ones. What struck me was that all of the, you know,

00:13:43.660 all of the demographic information is obviously going to have to be obtained by the pollster,

00:13:47.580 because you don't know if someone is white, Asian, black, or what age they are when you call them.

00:13:53.420 Right. But we generally know, at least for the landlines, where they're located. And none of their

00:14:02.220 geographic breakdowns were based on that. It was all just, they asked them where they live. So

00:14:09.660 that's a bit odd. Now, you kind of have to do that for cell phones. But for landlines, we do know,

00:14:13.900 we can say, okay, if we're calling this number, this, you know, 9937 is in Strathmore. We know

00:14:19.260 that's a Strathmore number, right? They didn't do any of that. It was all just kind of self reported.

00:14:23.740 So you, I don't know. It was a funny poll. But you know, I'm not going to dismiss it out of hand.

00:14:29.740 It's entirely possible. It's correct. But we're gonna have to wait and see a few others. I like

00:14:33.660 to take an aggregate of this. That's why I like websites like 338.com. They're not doing their own

00:14:38.540 polling for the most part, but they're, they're taking aggregates of everyone's polls, kind of averaging

00:14:43.980 them out, maybe waiting them a little differently based on how credible and established polling firm is.

00:14:48.860 And then trying to apply it as best as possible to the riding level to see the way it's,

00:14:53.420 it's going to turn out. There's still a good chunk of undecided too, which we haven't talked about.

00:14:57.180 I think the main street poll had it at 11%. So still, that's coming down, coming down.

00:15:03.740 It was, I think, up around 18 or 19% at one point, but still, still a good chunk out there.

00:15:09.100 11% is not, not huge though. And the default, it's not always the case, but the default among pollsters

00:15:15.180 is they're going to break the undecided on election day, are going to break disproportionately

00:15:21.900 among how parties are currently polling. So they'll, you know, if, if it's two to one for party

00:15:29.100 A over party B, the undecideds will probably break two to one for party A, then for party B as well.

00:15:34.860 That's, and that's a generally correct rule of thumb. Not, it's not always the case, but it's

00:15:39.820 generally rule of thumb. I should also note, uh, tomorrow, the Westridge Center is going to have

00:15:44.060 some exclusive polling of our own. We have contracted, um, a, uh, a fairly new polling firm,

00:15:51.820 but it's, uh, I know some of the people behind it. It's, uh, made up of some very good experienced

00:15:55.820 pollsters, particularly pollsters in Alberta. And so we're going to have some great, uh, exclusive data

00:16:02.300 with huge sample sizes, um, three times the size of the, uh, abacus poll. So, uh, 2,500 completed

00:16:09.900 surveys, including some, uh, some polls that break down some of the key swing ratings, those bellwether

00:16:15.260 constituencies that'll tell you, you know, if, if the UCP wins this one or the NDP wins that one,

00:16:21.020 that's a good indicator of who's gonna win government. So we're gonna have some really great

00:16:24.940 stuff coming up there. Looking forward to that. So, uh, Sean, we're gonna switch gears here. Um,

00:16:31.100 yesterday you, uh, you went to a brass conference, uh, helped by the UCP down in Okotoks,

00:16:37.580 and, um, they, uh, I suppose had unearthed, uh, some sections of a book that, uh, the NDP candidate

00:16:45.980 around there had written, uh, that was, uh, not, not even just anti-oil, I'd say, I'd say it was

00:16:52.460 particularly spicy about Alberta oil in particular and Albertans relationship with oil. Yeah. Um,

00:16:59.420 comparing it to, uh, slavery and energy workers are slaves because they're working for the big oil 1.00

00:17:04.940 companies that are taking off their values, uh, while their value, their economic value sounds

00:17:11.180 like a fairly, uh, consistent Karl Marx, uh, that is Marxist theory of labor, uh, the Marxist theory

00:17:17.660 of alienation of labor. Yeah. Yeah. So not just that, uh, oil and gas promotes slavery around the world,

00:17:22.780 but, uh, in fact, uh, Alberta oil workers are slaves. Yeah. The, uh, 18 year old guy I know with an F-350,

00:17:32.700 a sled and a quad might disagree. Kind of both. Yeah. Guys with more disposable income than

00:17:40.860 any one of us. Yeah. Um, and also, uh, said something along the eye, along the lines that

00:17:45.660 Albertans are, uh, energy entitled rednecks. Did I get that right? Yeah. Socks seem to be the word that,

00:17:51.580 we're socks, we're oil socks, which is, uh, Well, then where did the, uh, energy entitled rednecks part 0.98

00:17:57.900 come from? Um, it was all kind of mashed together. Which I refuse to take as pejorative. Stream of 0.61

00:18:04.940 consciousness. I'm like, that's a bad thing. Energy entitled rednecks. That sounds awesome. 1.00

00:18:11.980 Yeah. I'm not taking that as an insult. Mine looks a little red this morning. Yeah. Yeah. Um,

00:18:16.940 so did, was this the same candidate who said that or was another candidate who said that? Well,

00:18:20.060 there's been a few candidates actually, uh, it depends on which one you talk about. Uh, Shannon

00:18:25.100 Phillips was, uh, apparently she wrote a preamble to a book with, uh, Mike Odeema. I don't, I don't know.

00:18:30.380 I don't know if you know Mike Odeema. Yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He's crazy. He's infamous.

00:18:34.540 Yeah. But, uh, that, that one's been fairly well known for some time. That's not a new one. No,

00:18:39.420 I don't think it's a new one. No, but the UCP brought them all out on Friday and just sort of

00:18:43.580 listed them. This candidate, this candidate, this candidate, they're all anti oil. Yeah. Well, and it's

00:18:49.660 funny because, um, not Lee, uh, during her press conferences, every time the question comes up, like,

00:18:55.660 are you anti oil? She always falls back on while we're the ones that got the pipeline built to 0.97

00:19:00.780 tidewater, the TMX expansion. And, uh, we were talking this morning about the royalty review that

00:19:07.020 they did when they were elected and just caused a lot of uncertainty, a lot of anxiety, and then really

00:19:13.020 amounted to not very much. So there's a, it seems to me that the mainstream in the party, uh, probably

00:19:21.980 is kind of anti oil pro environment, uh, reduce emissions and, uh, not Lee government would

00:19:29.020 definitely have a focus on emissions reduction, but at the same time, it's unclear how anti oil

00:19:36.540 that it would actually be. Well, they have a complicated relationship, I'd say. I think it's

00:19:40.940 fair to say a lot of their, you know, their candidates and certainly kind of their, the activist

00:19:46.220 membership, uh, grassroots level, uh, it's pretty broadly anti, anti oil and whatnot, and kind of

00:19:53.740 the greening movement. But, you know, Rachel not Lee, I think is smart enough. Uh, you know,

00:19:59.260 she needs those people voting for her, but it's kind of a Nixon going to China thing. They understand

00:20:03.580 that she's the best they can get. Uh, you know, when she won government in 2015, it was a surprise to

00:20:09.260 everyone, including herself. And they're like, holy crap. We, you know, we made some of these promises

00:20:15.500 here, which like eight seats in 2015 would have been a victory for them. They ended up with 50

00:20:20.060 something or something with a majority government. Uh, and they realized, well, we kind of need the

00:20:24.540 revenue from oil for this big expansion of social programs that we want to undergo. So

00:20:30.540 they have a complicated relationship with it, Dave. And, and, and Rachel not Lee has been going to

00:20:34.700 pain. So at least try not to scare off moderate voters who, uh, you know, might be sympathetic to

00:20:40.540 some, some moderate greenie initiatives, but are certainly not anti oil and wanting to shut it down.

00:20:45.420 No. And I keep in mind, uh, uh, when she, she first became a premier, first thing they did

00:20:51.340 slapped in a carbon tax, which she didn't, uh, campaign on. But look, if you're going out and

00:20:56.700 you're promising on the campaign trail, a hundred million here, a few hundred million here, 600 million

00:21:02.380 here, 1.2 billion for Calgary, you need the oil money to pay for it. And if the oil of money is

00:21:08.940 not there, then it's, it's catastrophic for the, uh, for the government books. And they're going to

00:21:14.300 be struggling even right now at $70 a barrel with all this, all this money. Well, she has promised

00:21:19.420 also increased taxes on businesses. Yes, that is true. That'll only make so much, if anything.

00:21:26.140 She's also made the point too, that, uh, when, uh, they were in power, the oil revenues amounted to

00:21:31.420 about $3 billion a year. So about 12 billion. And then in the last budget, they were about 27.

00:21:38.380 Which is a, it's a fair point. I mean, oil revenue is much higher now than it was when

00:21:42.220 she was in government, but she's still one of those revenues. So I think, you know, while she

00:21:49.180 has, uh, I put it this way, her relationship to the oil industry is probably like Danielle Smith's 0.89

00:21:55.420 relationship to government monopoly healthcare. They don't probably like either, but they understand

00:22:01.420 politically there's a necessity of maybe not acting on your hardest instincts with these things that

00:22:06.940 voters are just not there. And in not least case, even if voters were there, you'd be killing the

00:22:11.820 golden goose and couldn't do any of the other stuff that she wants to do. And so she's trying to balance

00:22:17.500 it, but, uh, it's probably not helpful, Sean, that she's got these candidates that just keep popping up

00:22:22.940 with these hardline kind of extreme anti-oil comments, uh, that are not like flippant Facebook

00:22:29.420 posts. Like, uh, this particular guy, uh, you wrote this in a book that has presumably been edited and

00:22:36.780 published and probably proofread by the author at least once before being published. Hopefully.

00:22:42.460 Hopefully you think about what you say before you say. This was not rage posting on Twitter.

00:22:46.140 This was, this was a book. Yeah. It was kind of a articulated theory. It didn't seem to me, like you

00:22:52.060 said, it had, uh, some pretty basic Marxist principles that you learn in political philosophy and

00:22:57.900 university. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we won't consider that communist number four, but definitely borrowing

00:23:05.900 on- You do see the link though. It is clearly using Marxist theory of alienation of labor. And for the

00:23:12.780 kids at home who don't know what that is, don't read it. It'll make you dumber. Okay. Oh,

00:23:18.860 gentlemen, thank you very much for joining and thank all of you for joining the Alberta report

00:23:22.220 today. We're going to be back again tomorrow with updates and as promised with exclusive polling done

00:23:26.540 for the Western standard. We'll see you tomorrow. Uh, thank you very much for joining us and God bless.

00:23:32.780 The current Lethbridge feed grain prices are as follows. Cash barley is up $2 at $4.07,

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Western Standard - May 16, 2023

AB REPORT： Conflicting Polls： Who’s in the lead？

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