Western Standard - May 23, 2023


AB REPORT： Polls still neck and neck.


Episode Stats

Length

15 minutes

Words per Minute

172.93135

Word Count

2,673

Sentence Count

229

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

The polls are neck-and-neck in the race for Alberta s election, with the United Conservative Party and the Alberta New Democratic Party locked in a tight race. Can the UCP or the NDP hold on to their slim lead in the polls? And is there any hope for the other party?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 G'day, I'm Derek Fultebrand, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching
00:00:14.180 the Alberta Report, our daily reports from the campaign trail here in Alberta.
00:00:20.360 I'm joined today by Western Standard news editor, as usual, Dave Naylor.
00:00:25.040 Good morning, Derek.
00:00:25.840 Had a good long weekend?
00:00:26.820 Yeah, not bad at all.
00:00:27.740 Beauty.
00:00:28.680 Also, subbing in for Nigel today is one of our Calgary reporters, Jonathan Bradley.
00:00:38.080 Doing good.
00:00:38.480 How about you, Derek?
00:00:39.240 I didn't ask you how you're doing.
00:00:40.240 I just looked at you.
00:00:43.960 Okay.
00:00:45.780 I'm good, thank you.
00:00:47.720 All right.
00:00:48.320 Well, just real quick, today's show is sponsored by my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting
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00:01:12.840 Okay.
00:01:13.280 We're going to dive straight into it.
00:01:15.860 The polls are neck and neck, and they've been pretty neck and neck the whole time.
00:01:22.180 Going into the campaign, it was neck and neck, consistently UCP in the lead, but still within
00:01:28.560 the margin of error.
00:01:29.300 Now the poll, some polls are showing slight NDP lead, slight UCP lead, all within the margin
00:01:38.720 of error.
00:01:39.760 So there are two very recent ones that have come out we're going to get into.
00:01:43.180 One from Sovereign North Research, which was provided exclusively to the Western Standard,
00:01:49.300 and the other one from Abacus Data, based further out east.
00:01:52.860 Jonathan, tell us kind of the highlights of the Sovereign North Poll first.
00:01:57.960 So the highlights of the Sovereign North Poll are the election is two hosts to call, but
00:02:02.320 the Alberta NDP has a slim 1% lead, although this is within the margin of error.
00:02:07.180 So of course, there could be issues with that.
00:02:09.920 The poll shows that the Alberta NDP would receive 49% of a vote, and the UCP would receive
00:02:16.300 48% of a vote.
00:02:17.620 And then the Alberta Party would come in a distant third with 2%, and then the Greens
00:02:21.960 and other would be 1%.
00:02:23.920 The NDP support is predominantly in Edmonton.
00:02:28.760 It's about 59% NDP to 37% UCP.
00:02:34.280 And in Calgary, the race is tied.
00:02:37.000 The two parties are at 47% each.
00:02:39.820 All right.
00:02:41.600 This is a pretty big sample size.
00:02:44.120 Now, Sovereign North Research is a fairly new firm, although we know some of the folks
00:02:49.500 working there, they're experienced pollsters, but Sovereign North is a fairly new firm.
00:02:54.580 But it's an absolutely gargantuan sample size.
00:02:57.220 Do you have the number there about how many people it was?
00:02:59.240 It was, I believe, almost 3,000 people.
00:03:01.540 Yeah.
00:03:02.760 So most of the polls you're seeing are about 1,000.
00:03:06.340 And 1,000 actually normally gives you a fairly good snapshot.
00:03:09.260 It just means your regional breakdowns are not that good.
00:03:11.960 But, Dave, they're tied in Calgary at this poll and in many polls.
00:03:18.140 A tie in Calgary still means a lot of seat losses for the UCP, but a tie in Calgary still
00:03:23.640 probably means the UCP win overall.
00:03:26.120 Yeah, the numbers still aren't there, Derek, for the NDP to have a path to victory.
00:03:33.340 I think the next poll we're going to talk about has even some more interesting numbers
00:03:37.380 on Calgary.
00:03:38.580 Well, let's go straight into that.
00:03:39.560 We'll get into the abacus one and then we'll start comparing them.
00:03:42.660 Jonathan, what were the key points from this abacus poll?
00:03:45.920 So the key points are the Auburn-Indo-Conservative Party is in Belize province-wide, but the
00:03:51.360 lead is slim.
00:03:53.620 It's...
00:03:53.920 Like, what are they at?
00:03:55.100 So the UCP is at 40%, whereas the NDP is at 37%.
00:03:59.860 Okay, so in this one, I think the big reason is that this is still including, they have
00:04:04.300 undecided voters listed separately, which changes things quite a bit.
00:04:08.080 Yeah, and almost one-fifth of voters are undecided at that point.
00:04:11.080 And there's similar dynamics in play.
00:04:13.400 The NDP support is predominantly in Edmonton, although Calgary is where it's considered the
00:04:19.700 battleground, but the UCP have a slim lead.
00:04:22.260 And on top of that, what abacus pointed out is that this is the first time that the UCP
00:04:27.660 has such a large lead since they began tracking in December.
00:04:32.960 Yeah, that's the thing that stands out to me, Derek, is that that 40% is up three points
00:04:39.620 from the UCP.
00:04:41.420 The 37% is down three points from the NDP.
00:04:44.580 And in Calgary, it's 47 to 42, which is a, you know, it's a fairly healthy lead, which
00:04:50.060 to me, maybe there's some post-debate momentum going on there.
00:04:55.060 But certainly from the abacus poll, it looks like there is a bit of momentum with the UCP going
00:05:02.240 into the final link.
00:05:03.300 And on the Sovereign North poll, while they're essentially tied 1% apart from each other,
00:05:10.040 so obviously well within the margin of error, it did have a noticeable uptick in favorables
00:05:15.000 for Danielle Smith post-debate.
00:05:18.080 Yes.
00:05:18.700 Yeah, I think it's been pretty universally, I think, agreed upon at this point that it was
00:05:24.240 a good debate for Smith.
00:05:25.160 You know, didn't knock Notley out or anything, but certainly exceeded expectations people had
00:05:32.140 Smith going in, generally performed pretty well.
00:05:35.080 So her favorables are up.
00:05:36.260 So that's one thing I noticed in the Sovereign North poll that they had, some of the downline
00:05:40.520 numbers was preferred premier.
00:05:43.120 They're tied.
00:05:44.500 Whereas previously, people liked UCP, but hated NDP, liked Notley, but did not like Smith.
00:05:51.880 And now Smith and Notley are getting a lot closer.
00:05:54.840 At least for preferred premier, they're tied.
00:05:56.760 Net favorables, if you like them or not.
00:05:58.480 Notley still has a bit of an edge over Smith.
00:06:03.520 Well, it's been that way since Smith became UCP leader, where she's had a lower popularity
00:06:09.840 rating than Notley did.
00:06:11.480 But one valid point to consider is that Notley's kind of transformed herself into, as Rekha Schultz
00:06:15.800 said, campaign Rachel Notley, because many people didn't like premier Rachel Notley.
00:06:20.540 Well, I think to be fair, both of them have.
00:06:22.720 There was UCP leadership, Danielle Smith, who was, you know, firebrand, end the mandates.
00:06:27.800 Eat the crap out of Trudeau.
00:06:30.120 And then, you know, premier Danielle Smith, which has been much more, I promise, I'm going
00:06:35.520 to be more boring from now on.
00:06:37.320 And I think that's helped her.
00:06:38.640 I think it helped her in the debate.
00:06:40.580 People who were undecided probably tuned in to see whether there would be a bozo eruption
00:06:45.180 from her.
00:06:46.260 And there wasn't.
00:06:47.400 She handled everything statesmanlike and performed well.
00:06:51.500 Okay, well, let's kind of turn into where the campaigns are at overall right now.
00:06:56.660 There are no campaign events scheduled for either Smith or Notley today, and possibly,
00:07:01.940 at least publicly announced, for a few days for both campaigns.
00:07:05.100 Both campaigns appear to just be punch drunk at this point.
00:07:08.540 They're like boxers in the ring, and they're deep into it.
00:07:12.860 They're in the backgrounds.
00:07:13.840 And they're just kind of, you know, you get those boxers, and they're just kind of hugging
00:07:17.420 each other.
00:07:18.060 It's not very exciting anymore.
00:07:19.280 They're just sweaty and drooling on each other, trying to get the energy to land one
00:07:24.920 more punch.
00:07:25.640 But they can't seem to go.
00:07:27.340 And I know campaigns get way too deep into these sports and fighting analogies.
00:07:30.840 But, Dave, at this point, it kind of feels like, because it's not just the 30-day campaign
00:07:37.960 here, because it's been a hard, fixed election day for the first time in Alberta.
00:07:41.840 The campaigns have really been going for like six months here.
00:07:45.680 Smith herself actually had the leadership campaign, and then like scrambling through
00:07:50.840 the first month as premier as the election was effectively underway.
00:07:53.660 At this point, is it just me, or do these campaigns really feel like they have no gas
00:08:00.520 left in the tank?
00:08:01.360 No, they're running on fumes at this point.
00:08:04.020 And it's exactly because of what you said.
00:08:05.760 This campaign's been going on for six months, because of that fixed election date.
00:08:12.100 There's no rally scheduled for Notley until Wednesday.
00:08:18.220 Nothing for Smith, as far as we know, until Thursday.
00:08:21.540 And this is the last week of the campaign.
00:08:22.940 This is their last chance.
00:08:24.860 And they've announced everything they're going to announce.
00:08:29.480 So at this point, it's just, it's repetition.
00:08:32.240 And maybe that's why they're staying off the trail, because they don't want to bore everybody
00:08:36.540 with the same thing over and over again.
00:08:38.880 Or more, that they don't want to expose themselves to a mistake at this point.
00:08:43.500 But, Jonathan, Dave alluded to this.
00:08:45.620 Both campaigns have released their total, complete, full platforms now, right?
00:08:50.060 Well, they've released the hosting platform.
00:08:51.360 I mean, there could still be platform announcements being rolled out in the coming days.
00:08:55.360 But probably un-costed.
00:08:56.360 Un-costed.
00:08:56.840 Ones that don't have explicit tax dollar figures attached.
00:08:59.680 Yeah.
00:08:59.820 Yeah, like, more, like, law-type stuff, I assume.
00:09:03.780 Regulations, things like that.
00:09:04.820 But, yeah, even with the costing, there was, with the NDP's platform, the issue was that
00:09:11.140 they didn't cost it to the businesses leaving if the corporate tax rate goes up.
00:09:16.500 So, obviously, there might be some campaigns who are on the defensive.
00:09:19.380 Well, the NDP would contend that businesses don't leave if taxes go up, I suppose.
00:09:24.060 That's their contention.
00:09:25.380 But even with that, I mean, there could be people who poke holes in the campaign platforms
00:09:30.660 and then, you know, we have to go on the defensive.
00:09:33.980 So, at this point, I think the campaigns are moving away from persuasion to mobilization.
00:09:41.020 Like, you know, they've knocked on tons of doors.
00:09:43.740 Some of these campaigns and the key constituencies on both sides have knocked on every door like
00:09:49.580 three times.
00:09:50.340 I'm getting sick of it.
00:09:52.300 You know, my neighborhood, there are freaking canvassers all over the place.
00:09:56.980 And I've seen the same campaigns come through.
00:10:00.820 You know, they've been knocking on doors long before the campaign started, which is why you've
00:10:03.620 got now saturation knocking.
00:10:06.060 They've identified their supporters.
00:10:08.000 And now it's a matter of motivating them to get to the polls.
00:10:11.140 And if you can't do that, driving to their houses and physically putting them in a grandma
00:10:14.800 on a van and driving her forcefully to the polls at gunpoint.
00:10:17.960 So, I think it's about mobilization at this point.
00:10:21.560 I mean, you've been complaining about door knocking.
00:10:23.120 I haven't been knocked.
00:10:23.940 My door hasn't been knocked at least once.
00:10:25.000 You live in an apartment.
00:10:26.080 Yeah, well, you're still, yeah.
00:10:27.480 You're still out to canvas and condos.
00:10:28.740 I know, but it's less likely.
00:10:32.340 You have to, like, arrange in advance to get into the building and have, like, elevator
00:10:36.800 access for a lot of these things.
00:10:37.980 So, the campaigns have to plan a bit more to get into an apartment building.
00:10:41.180 Yeah, right now, it's almost out of Notley's hands.
00:10:44.180 It's out of Smith's hands.
00:10:45.900 It's in the hands of their workers and their, you know, the backroom boys and girls who,
00:10:51.360 as you say, it's now their job to get the vote out.
00:10:54.120 And I'm sure they're putting huge resources into bellwether ridings.
00:10:59.900 It could go either way.
00:11:00.800 And, yeah, it's, you know, everybody's sort of bring on Monday.
00:11:05.440 And at this point, you know, I've had some birdies tripping.
00:11:09.020 We'll see how reliable it turns out to be or not.
00:11:11.000 But I've had some birds trip to me that the NDP have still got some OPPO research dumps
00:11:17.120 up their sleeves.
00:11:18.120 And if they're going to do it, it probably has to come about now to have any kind of impact.
00:11:26.500 You have to try and kind of throw some muck at UCP candidates or Smith who have said something
00:11:32.280 in the past and that comes out.
00:11:34.320 If they're going to do the big one, it's going to come now.
00:11:37.220 We're Tuesday, and we vote six days from now.
00:11:41.580 And people are already voting in the advance polls in very large numbers.
00:11:44.500 Like, there are signs that we're actually going to have a fairly high turnout election
00:11:47.960 here, and competitive elections tend to do that.
00:11:50.000 If they had the big one, why wouldn't they have brought it out earlier?
00:11:53.400 Well, we'll see.
00:11:54.380 We'll see.
00:11:54.780 I mean, they've already released some stuff that's had an impact.
00:11:57.360 They've had a very sympathetic media to drive that home.
00:12:01.980 And the media has not picked up any, really, of the hits on the NDP side.
00:12:06.300 And...
00:12:06.940 Nothing on the communists.
00:12:08.380 No.
00:12:09.200 You know, you've had your own reporting.
00:12:11.500 You've unearthed four communists or communism things shared from NDP candidates.
00:12:17.560 Not a word.
00:12:19.320 I think the only thing that got any mention in the news was the Livingston-McLeod NDP
00:12:23.540 candidate who said the oil industry was like slavery and Albertans are a bunch of entitled
00:12:27.760 rednecks.
00:12:28.420 And the defunding police candidates, I thought, was back in April.
00:12:31.140 Yeah.
00:12:31.560 But there hasn't really been much.
00:12:33.080 Definitely nothing that got front page coverage here.
00:12:36.300 So, we'll see.
00:12:37.320 I think that's probably the only thing that could really upset the apple cart at this
00:12:40.860 point.
00:12:41.400 But I'm surprised not to see more rallies because rallies are about motivating your volunteers
00:12:45.240 and supporters to get them out.
00:12:46.740 That's really all you should be doing at this point.
00:12:48.680 Yeah.
00:12:48.820 You want to be seen to having momentum.
00:12:51.440 And if you can get a rally of 400 or 500 people, people will think, oh, wow, they're doing
00:12:55.220 well.
00:12:55.440 I want to be on the winner's side.
00:12:56.520 And maybe change their vote one way or the other.
00:12:58.820 But no, nothing like that yet.
00:13:00.480 Indeed.
00:13:01.180 Okay.
00:13:01.600 Thank you, gentlemen.
00:13:02.740 Thank you.
00:13:03.140 And thank all of you for joining us today.
00:13:04.600 We'll be back again tomorrow.
00:13:06.360 But mark it in your calendar Monday evening.
00:13:10.140 The Westridge Centre is going to have live coverage of the Alberta election on election
00:13:15.300 night.
00:13:16.240 The polls close at 8 o'clock.
00:13:17.880 We'll be starting, I think, 7.30, we said?
00:13:20.120 I thought we said noon.
00:13:20.960 Not quite.
00:13:24.940 Not quite.
00:13:25.580 Not quite.
00:13:25.920 I think we're going to start 7, 7.30.
00:13:27.580 We'll have the exact time for you soon.
00:13:29.040 But be sure to tune in on election night.
00:13:31.600 We'll take you all the way through as the polls close and those results start coming in.
00:13:36.040 We have a really great lineup of analysts coming out.
00:13:39.420 Guys, you're going to be able to look at individual polls and individual ridings and
00:13:43.100 make a pretty educated guess about the way the election is going to turn out based on
00:13:47.640 how that goes.
00:13:48.720 So thank you very much for joining us today.
00:13:50.080 We'll see you tomorrow and God bless.
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