Western Standard - May 23, 2023


AB REPORT： Polls still neck and neck.


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Length

15 minutes

Words per minute

172.93135

Word count

2,673

Sentence count

229

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

3

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The polls are neck-and-neck in the race for Alberta s election, with the United Conservative Party and the Alberta New Democratic Party locked in a tight race. Can the UCP or the NDP hold on to their slim lead in the polls? And is there any hope for the other party?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 G'day, I'm Derek Fultebrand, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching
00:00:14.180 the Alberta Report, our daily reports from the campaign trail here in Alberta.
00:00:20.360 I'm joined today by Western Standard news editor, as usual, Dave Naylor.
00:00:25.040 Good morning, Derek.
00:00:25.840 Had a good long weekend?
00:00:26.820 Yeah, not bad at all.
00:00:27.740 Beauty.
00:00:28.680 Also, subbing in for Nigel today is one of our Calgary reporters, Jonathan Bradley.
00:00:38.080 Doing good.
00:00:38.480 How about you, Derek?
00:00:39.240 I didn't ask you how you're doing.
00:00:40.240 I just looked at you.
00:00:43.960 Okay.
00:00:45.780 I'm good, thank you.
00:00:47.720 All right.
00:00:48.320 Well, just real quick, today's show is sponsored by my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting
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00:01:12.840 Okay.
00:01:13.280 We're going to dive straight into it.
00:01:15.860 The polls are neck and neck, and they've been pretty neck and neck the whole time.
00:01:22.180 Going into the campaign, it was neck and neck, consistently UCP in the lead, but still within
00:01:28.560 the margin of error.
00:01:29.300 Now the poll, some polls are showing slight NDP lead, slight UCP lead, all within the margin
00:01:38.720 of error.
00:01:39.760 So there are two very recent ones that have come out we're going to get into.
00:01:43.180 One from Sovereign North Research, which was provided exclusively to the Western Standard,
00:01:49.300 and the other one from Abacus Data, based further out east.
00:01:52.860 Jonathan, tell us kind of the highlights of the Sovereign North Poll first.
00:01:57.960 So the highlights of the Sovereign North Poll are the election is two hosts to call, but
00:02:02.320 the Alberta NDP has a slim 1% lead, although this is within the margin of error.
00:02:07.180 So of course, there could be issues with that.
00:02:09.920 The poll shows that the Alberta NDP would receive 49% of a vote, and the UCP would receive
00:02:16.300 48% of a vote.
00:02:17.620 And then the Alberta Party would come in a distant third with 2%, and then the Greens
00:02:21.960 and other would be 1%.
00:02:23.920 The NDP support is predominantly in Edmonton.
00:02:28.760 It's about 59% NDP to 37% UCP.
00:02:34.280 And in Calgary, the race is tied.
00:02:37.000 The two parties are at 47% each.
00:02:39.820 All right.
00:02:41.600 This is a pretty big sample size.
00:02:44.120 Now, Sovereign North Research is a fairly new firm, although we know some of the folks
00:02:49.500 working there, they're experienced pollsters, but Sovereign North is a fairly new firm.
00:02:54.580 But it's an absolutely gargantuan sample size.
00:02:57.220 Do you have the number there about how many people it was?
00:02:59.240 It was, I believe, almost 3,000 people.
00:03:01.540 Yeah.
00:03:02.760 So most of the polls you're seeing are about 1,000.
00:03:06.340 And 1,000 actually normally gives you a fairly good snapshot.
00:03:09.260 It just means your regional breakdowns are not that good.
00:03:11.960 But, Dave, they're tied in Calgary at this poll and in many polls.
00:03:18.140 A tie in Calgary still means a lot of seat losses for the UCP, but a tie in Calgary still
00:03:23.640 probably means the UCP win overall.
00:03:26.120 Yeah, the numbers still aren't there, Derek, for the NDP to have a path to victory.
00:03:33.340 I think the next poll we're going to talk about has even some more interesting numbers
00:03:37.380 on Calgary.
00:03:38.580 Well, let's go straight into that.
00:03:39.560 We'll get into the abacus one and then we'll start comparing them.
00:03:42.660 Jonathan, what were the key points from this abacus poll?
00:03:45.920 So the key points are the Auburn-Indo-Conservative Party is in Belize province-wide, but the
00:03:51.360 lead is slim.
00:03:53.620 It's...
00:03:53.920 Like, what are they at?
00:03:55.100 So the UCP is at 40%, whereas the NDP is at 37%.
00:03:59.860 Okay, so in this one, I think the big reason is that this is still including, they have
00:04:04.300 undecided voters listed separately, which changes things quite a bit.
00:04:08.080 Yeah, and almost one-fifth of voters are undecided at that point.
00:04:11.080 And there's similar dynamics in play.
00:04:13.400 The NDP support is predominantly in Edmonton, although Calgary is where it's considered the
00:04:19.700 battleground, but the UCP have a slim lead.
00:04:22.260 And on top of that, what abacus pointed out is that this is the first time that the UCP
00:04:27.660 has such a large lead since they began tracking in December.
00:04:32.960 Yeah, that's the thing that stands out to me, Derek, is that that 40% is up three points
00:04:39.620 from the UCP.
00:04:41.420 The 37% is down three points from the NDP.
00:04:44.580 And in Calgary, it's 47 to 42, which is a, you know, it's a fairly healthy lead, which
00:04:50.060 to me, maybe there's some post-debate momentum going on there.
00:04:55.060 But certainly from the abacus poll, it looks like there is a bit of momentum with the UCP going
00:05:02.240 into the final link.
00:05:03.300 And on the Sovereign North poll, while they're essentially tied 1% apart from each other,
00:05:10.040 so obviously well within the margin of error, it did have a noticeable uptick in favorables
00:05:15.000 for Danielle Smith post-debate.
00:05:18.080 Yes.
00:05:18.700 Yeah, I think it's been pretty universally, I think, agreed upon at this point that it was
00:05:24.240 a good debate for Smith.
00:05:25.160 You know, didn't knock Notley out or anything, but certainly exceeded expectations people had
00:05:32.140 Smith going in, generally performed pretty well.
00:05:35.080 So her favorables are up.
00:05:36.260 So that's one thing I noticed in the Sovereign North poll that they had, some of the downline
00:05:40.520 numbers was preferred premier.
00:05:43.120 They're tied.
00:05:44.500 Whereas previously, people liked UCP, but hated NDP, liked Notley, but did not like Smith.
00:05:51.880 And now Smith and Notley are getting a lot closer.
00:05:54.840 At least for preferred premier, they're tied.
00:05:56.760 Net favorables, if you like them or not.
00:05:58.480 Notley still has a bit of an edge over Smith.
00:06:03.520 Well, it's been that way since Smith became UCP leader, where she's had a lower popularity
00:06:09.840 rating than Notley did.
00:06:11.480 But one valid point to consider is that Notley's kind of transformed herself into, as Rekha Schultz
00:06:15.800 said, campaign Rachel Notley, because many people didn't like premier Rachel Notley.
00:06:20.540 Well, I think to be fair, both of them have.
00:06:22.720 There was UCP leadership, Danielle Smith, who was, you know, firebrand, end the mandates. 1.00
00:06:27.800 Eat the crap out of Trudeau.
00:06:30.120 And then, you know, premier Danielle Smith, which has been much more, I promise, I'm going
00:06:35.520 to be more boring from now on.
00:06:37.320 And I think that's helped her.
00:06:38.640 I think it helped her in the debate.
00:06:40.580 People who were undecided probably tuned in to see whether there would be a bozo eruption
00:06:45.180 from her.
00:06:46.260 And there wasn't.
00:06:47.400 She handled everything statesmanlike and performed well.
00:06:51.500 Okay, well, let's kind of turn into where the campaigns are at overall right now.
00:06:56.660 There are no campaign events scheduled for either Smith or Notley today, and possibly,
00:07:01.940 at least publicly announced, for a few days for both campaigns.
00:07:05.100 Both campaigns appear to just be punch drunk at this point.
00:07:08.540 They're like boxers in the ring, and they're deep into it.
00:07:12.860 They're in the backgrounds.
00:07:13.840 And they're just kind of, you know, you get those boxers, and they're just kind of hugging
00:07:17.420 each other.
00:07:18.060 It's not very exciting anymore.
00:07:19.280 They're just sweaty and drooling on each other, trying to get the energy to land one
00:07:24.920 more punch.
00:07:25.640 But they can't seem to go.
00:07:27.340 And I know campaigns get way too deep into these sports and fighting analogies.
00:07:30.840 But, Dave, at this point, it kind of feels like, because it's not just the 30-day campaign
00:07:37.960 here, because it's been a hard, fixed election day for the first time in Alberta.
00:07:41.840 The campaigns have really been going for like six months here.
00:07:45.680 Smith herself actually had the leadership campaign, and then like scrambling through 1.00
00:07:50.840 the first month as premier as the election was effectively underway.
00:07:53.660 At this point, is it just me, or do these campaigns really feel like they have no gas
00:08:00.520 left in the tank?
00:08:01.360 No, they're running on fumes at this point.
00:08:04.020 And it's exactly because of what you said.
00:08:05.760 This campaign's been going on for six months, because of that fixed election date.
00:08:12.100 There's no rally scheduled for Notley until Wednesday.
00:08:18.220 Nothing for Smith, as far as we know, until Thursday.
00:08:21.540 And this is the last week of the campaign.
00:08:22.940 This is their last chance.
00:08:24.860 And they've announced everything they're going to announce.
00:08:29.480 So at this point, it's just, it's repetition.
00:08:32.240 And maybe that's why they're staying off the trail, because they don't want to bore everybody
00:08:36.540 with the same thing over and over again.
00:08:38.880 Or more, that they don't want to expose themselves to a mistake at this point.
00:08:43.500 But, Jonathan, Dave alluded to this.
00:08:45.620 Both campaigns have released their total, complete, full platforms now, right?
00:08:50.060 Well, they've released the hosting platform.
00:08:51.360 I mean, there could still be platform announcements being rolled out in the coming days.
00:08:55.360 But probably un-costed.
00:08:56.360 Un-costed.
00:08:56.840 Ones that don't have explicit tax dollar figures attached.
00:08:59.680 Yeah.
00:08:59.820 Yeah, like, more, like, law-type stuff, I assume.
00:09:03.780 Regulations, things like that.
00:09:04.820 But, yeah, even with the costing, there was, with the NDP's platform, the issue was that
00:09:11.140 they didn't cost it to the businesses leaving if the corporate tax rate goes up.
00:09:16.500 So, obviously, there might be some campaigns who are on the defensive.
00:09:19.380 Well, the NDP would contend that businesses don't leave if taxes go up, I suppose.
00:09:24.060 That's their contention.
00:09:25.380 But even with that, I mean, there could be people who poke holes in the campaign platforms
00:09:30.660 and then, you know, we have to go on the defensive.
00:09:33.980 So, at this point, I think the campaigns are moving away from persuasion to mobilization.
00:09:41.020 Like, you know, they've knocked on tons of doors.
00:09:43.740 Some of these campaigns and the key constituencies on both sides have knocked on every door like
00:09:49.580 three times.
00:09:50.340 I'm getting sick of it.
00:09:52.300 You know, my neighborhood, there are freaking canvassers all over the place.
00:09:56.980 And I've seen the same campaigns come through.
00:10:00.820 You know, they've been knocking on doors long before the campaign started, which is why you've
00:10:03.620 got now saturation knocking.
00:10:06.060 They've identified their supporters.
00:10:08.000 And now it's a matter of motivating them to get to the polls.
00:10:11.140 And if you can't do that, driving to their houses and physically putting them in a grandma 0.76
00:10:14.800 on a van and driving her forcefully to the polls at gunpoint.
00:10:17.960 So, I think it's about mobilization at this point.
00:10:21.560 I mean, you've been complaining about door knocking.
00:10:23.120 I haven't been knocked.
00:10:23.940 My door hasn't been knocked at least once.
00:10:25.000 You live in an apartment.
00:10:26.080 Yeah, well, you're still, yeah.
00:10:27.480 You're still out to canvas and condos.
00:10:28.740 I know, but it's less likely.
00:10:32.340 You have to, like, arrange in advance to get into the building and have, like, elevator
00:10:36.800 access for a lot of these things.
00:10:37.980 So, the campaigns have to plan a bit more to get into an apartment building.
00:10:41.180 Yeah, right now, it's almost out of Notley's hands.
00:10:44.180 It's out of Smith's hands.
00:10:45.900 It's in the hands of their workers and their, you know, the backroom boys and girls who, 0.99
00:10:51.360 as you say, it's now their job to get the vote out.
00:10:54.120 And I'm sure they're putting huge resources into bellwether ridings.
00:10:59.900 It could go either way.
00:11:00.800 And, yeah, it's, you know, everybody's sort of bring on Monday.
00:11:05.440 And at this point, you know, I've had some birdies tripping.
00:11:09.020 We'll see how reliable it turns out to be or not.
00:11:11.000 But I've had some birds trip to me that the NDP have still got some OPPO research dumps 0.94
00:11:17.120 up their sleeves.
00:11:18.120 And if they're going to do it, it probably has to come about now to have any kind of impact.
00:11:26.500 You have to try and kind of throw some muck at UCP candidates or Smith who have said something
00:11:32.280 in the past and that comes out.
00:11:34.320 If they're going to do the big one, it's going to come now.
00:11:37.220 We're Tuesday, and we vote six days from now.
00:11:41.580 And people are already voting in the advance polls in very large numbers.
00:11:44.500 Like, there are signs that we're actually going to have a fairly high turnout election
00:11:47.960 here, and competitive elections tend to do that.
00:11:50.000 If they had the big one, why wouldn't they have brought it out earlier?
00:11:53.400 Well, we'll see.
00:11:54.380 We'll see.
00:11:54.780 I mean, they've already released some stuff that's had an impact.
00:11:57.360 They've had a very sympathetic media to drive that home.
00:12:01.980 And the media has not picked up any, really, of the hits on the NDP side.
00:12:06.300 And...
00:12:06.940 Nothing on the communists.
00:12:08.380 No.
00:12:09.200 You know, you've had your own reporting.
00:12:11.500 You've unearthed four communists or communism things shared from NDP candidates.
00:12:17.560 Not a word.
00:12:19.320 I think the only thing that got any mention in the news was the Livingston-McLeod NDP
00:12:23.540 candidate who said the oil industry was like slavery and Albertans are a bunch of entitled
00:12:27.760 rednecks. 0.55
00:12:28.420 And the defunding police candidates, I thought, was back in April.
00:12:31.140 Yeah.
00:12:31.560 But there hasn't really been much.
00:12:33.080 Definitely nothing that got front page coverage here.
00:12:36.300 So, we'll see.
00:12:37.320 I think that's probably the only thing that could really upset the apple cart at this
00:12:40.860 point.
00:12:41.400 But I'm surprised not to see more rallies because rallies are about motivating your volunteers
00:12:45.240 and supporters to get them out.
00:12:46.740 That's really all you should be doing at this point.
00:12:48.680 Yeah.
00:12:48.820 You want to be seen to having momentum.
00:12:51.440 And if you can get a rally of 400 or 500 people, people will think, oh, wow, they're doing
00:12:55.220 well.
00:12:55.440 I want to be on the winner's side.
00:12:56.520 And maybe change their vote one way or the other.
00:12:58.820 But no, nothing like that yet.
00:13:00.480 Indeed.
00:13:01.180 Okay.
00:13:01.600 Thank you, gentlemen.
00:13:02.740 Thank you.
00:13:03.140 And thank all of you for joining us today.
00:13:04.600 We'll be back again tomorrow.
00:13:06.360 But mark it in your calendar Monday evening.
00:13:10.140 The Westridge Centre is going to have live coverage of the Alberta election on election
00:13:15.300 night.
00:13:16.240 The polls close at 8 o'clock.
00:13:17.880 We'll be starting, I think, 7.30, we said?
00:13:20.120 I thought we said noon.
00:13:20.960 Not quite.
00:13:24.940 Not quite.
00:13:25.580 Not quite.
00:13:25.920 I think we're going to start 7, 7.30.
00:13:27.580 We'll have the exact time for you soon.
00:13:29.040 But be sure to tune in on election night.
00:13:31.600 We'll take you all the way through as the polls close and those results start coming in.
00:13:36.040 We have a really great lineup of analysts coming out.
00:13:39.420 Guys, you're going to be able to look at individual polls and individual ridings and
00:13:43.100 make a pretty educated guess about the way the election is going to turn out based on
00:13:47.640 how that goes.
00:13:48.720 So thank you very much for joining us today.
00:13:50.080 We'll see you tomorrow and God bless.
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