Alberta Election weekly wrap-up
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Summary
Nigel Hannaford is joined by Mike Solberg to discuss the first week of the Alberta election campaign and what they are seeing from the two main parties so far in the race for the next election. They discuss the lack of excitement in the campaign so far, and how it compares to the 2019 campaign.
Transcript
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Good day, Western Standard Watchers. I'm Nigel Hannaford, and we're here to talk about what's
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been going on this week in the election. I have with me here today, Mike Solberg. Mike is a
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partner at New West Public Affairs, based here in Calgary. Mike, you're a former staffer in the
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conservative government of Stephen Harper, I think. You bet. So you're one of those Solbergs? I am.
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Yes. Okay. And your business is knowing what's going on. Correct. All right. Well, you're the man
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we want. Mike, good afternoon. Thank you. You're so kind of trying to come over. Mike, we are going
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through the first week of a very important election campaign. In your view, did anybody
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fall off their chair, land a direct hit, score a home run? How are the two parties doing so far,
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in your view? Sure. Sure. No, and that's the question. I think we're all looking back to see
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how the past week was won. In my opinion, I don't think there's been any knockout punches delivered
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yet. I think we're still working towards actually defining the campaign narrative. I think that both
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parties are doing their work to try and earn the support of Albertans and trying to define the
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ballot box question that they'll ultimately go in to the ballots on May 29th and cast votes with those
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issues in mind. But I'm not sure that we've come to a conclusion on that yet. And I think both parties
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still obviously have some life in them going into week two. So I shouldn't ask you what the ballot
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question is because we don't know yet. Well, we know what the parties want them to be.
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I'm not sure that the narrative has really gone and kind of made its way through the general public,
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the voting public. I'm not sure that that's clear yet. The race is so close still. And I think once
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and if one of these parties start to pull away, well, then I think we can probably start to
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conclude what that ballot box question ultimately will be. But right now, with no conclusions yet.
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Mike, it's very interesting that you said that this has not dribbled down to the general public yet.
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We both were in different places worked the 2019 provincial election campaign.
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Yeah. It's only three and a half weeks. It's not even three and a half weeks to the vote.
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But it doesn't really feel like there's much buzz. There's not much going on. And is it just me or
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are you feeling the same thing that this campaign is not like the 2019 campaign?
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No, for sure. No, you and I share that view. I think it's been somewhat lackluster compared to 2019
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in the first week. And I think there's a few reasons for that.
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Well, I think one, there's a couple of reasons. One, I think that in 2019, there was a lot of optimism
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in the 2019 campaign was the culmination of the long work that Jason Kenney had done to merge the
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two right wing parties in the province, bring them together as a unified movement and then go into the
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2019 campaign and ultimately win. So there was a lot of kind of buzz around that election.
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There was a lot of, I think, issues that needed to be resolved. Rachel Nolley oversaw the largest
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economic contractions in Alberta's history at that time. So there was change in the air.
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Jason Kenney had enormous momentum, even eight months out. I think most people probably thought
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that he was going to form government. He was a government in waiting. That's not the case right now.
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The economy is doing well. Jobs have recovered. In fact, a lot of reports have shown that
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all of the economic damage that was done during COVID has already been unwound.
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So I don't think anybody's going to mind with punishing the sitting government because of
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missteps with the economy. The UCP have that narrative in their side. The NDP don't have it
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in their side. So if we're not voting on the economy this time, well, what are we voting on?
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And I think that that's still playing out. And that's probably why the campaign has been somewhat
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lackluster so far, because the issues aren't clear.
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And Rachel Nolley and Daniel Smith are both known quantities. We're not dealing with new
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personalities here. Whereas Jason Kenney, granted he was a long-time federal minister,
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was new to the provincial stage. So there at least was some drama and excitement around that.
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That's not the case with Rachel Nolley and Daniel Smith.
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Okay. Well, all right. If it's not about the economy, and you're right, it really shouldn't be.
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And yet Rachel Nolley is trying to make it about the economy with an announcement yesterday,
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wants to invest, as she would call it, I would call it spend, $400 million in what she is calling
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Yeah, right. Talk to me about that. Is this actually an investment, or is this just a,
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like, I noticed there was a payoff to the union buddies in their training program. What is this
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Yeah, well, I mean, tax credits are a way to incentivize investment into our economy. And they
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only are paid out when these profitable companies who are enjoying the tax credit are profitable.
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Uh, and, uh, and that's how these tax credits, you know, kind of operate. And it is, uh, kind
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of the inverse to at least the managing style of the UCP in 2019, who were quite, uh, immune
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to the tax credit conversation. They limited, uh, eliminated the tax credits that were created
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by the then Nolley government almost, almost right away. That eventually changed. Uh, one
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of the biggest policy planks that the UCP have, have put a feather in their cap over is the
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film and television, television tax credit, which did an extraordinary, uh, job in attracting
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Rachel Nolley is now trying to do the same, but of no surprise. Uh, their government had
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it in 2015 to 2019, and now a Nolley government would, would certainly do it again. Frankly,
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I think it's smart. We should be incentivizing and offering economic opportunity and incentives
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like tax credits, uh, to, to, to companies all over the world. Uh, we should make this
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a competitive jurisdiction. So I thought that was a smart policy from, from Rachel Nolley.
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All right. Okay. That's, um, she says that it will pay for itself. I think we've heard,
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uh, heard other people say that large expenditures will pay for themselves.
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Well, I mean, I'm buying the, I'm buying tax credits as a, as a way to bring investment to
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the economy because they're only paid out when these companies are paying, uh, taxes,
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therefore profitable, uh, in the province. So, you know, I think it's, I think we're right
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to be skeptical of these things, how they work in practice. She was light on details. We need
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to see what the eligibility criteria and these types of things are. And that type of stuff,
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of course, won't be fleshed out until, uh, if Rachel Nolley were successful in winning
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this race, um, and, uh, the jury's still out and what's going to occur there. So we'll probably
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not, uh, have the details that I think you and I need, Nigel, to really break this down.
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Okay. Let's, let's, let's move on. And let's talk, talking about details.
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Yeah. Um, yesterday there, there was a feature announcement from the UCP in which, uh, some
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people say they got the numbers mixed up when speaking here of the, the ASO report, uh, Rachel
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Notley said, this is 87, we're going to, uh, it's going to cost $87 billion to do what we
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want to do, which is carbon net zero by 2035. The announcement was, well, that's a lot of
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money, isn't it? Uh, and yet now there's some controversy about just how much money that
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Well, yeah. So, uh, you know, uh, the controversy is hardly a controversy in my opinion. Uh, the
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UCP made the claim that under the NDP's plan to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035,
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it would cost 20 or $87 billion. And this was cited, uh, through this independent research
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firm called, uh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, as well as, uh, as well as ASO themselves. And
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they pulled data from both reports. Hey, so we, maybe we should just explain what that
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is. Yeah. Alberta's electricity system operator, the regulator of Alberta's electricity system.
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Okay. Yeah. Uh, and per their report, uh, they pulled details from both. And that was
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the conclusion they came to. Now, Novius came out and said, uh, well, no, to be clear, this
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is not what we're concluding and asked for a correction, which was that the, of the 87 billion,
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uh, $52 billion of that. That's the cost that it would be to decarbonize the electricity grid
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by 2035. And then the years following by 2040 and 2015 real dollars, the cost of the economy
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would be 35 billion from the province's GDP. That's, that's $87 billion, Nigel. So sure it
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was imprecise, uh, which is frankly something that I'm sure the UCP wish they could, could do
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over again, but the proof is in the pudding. It's still an extraordinarily expensive and ambitious
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plan from the NDP to decarbonize on those timelines. The UCP said that they would do it by
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2050, um, which would be cheaper, presumably. Um, but is this a controversy? No. Uh, the
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clarification was already made by the UCP late last night, and it was accepted in its language by
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Novius, the independent firm that was hired to look at this in the first place. And for this to be
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controversy outside of the bubble, outside of the mainstream media, you would have to talk to people
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on the, on, on the street and assume that they know what you and I are talking about, Nigel, when
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we're speaking about this issue. And I can guarantee you, if we pulled 200 people outside this building
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right now, they would have no earthly clue what we're talking about. So no, I think the page has
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already turned on this so-called controversy and we'll move on to the next one. All right. So what the,
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what the real issue in all of that is, is whether they're going to be able to do all of that,
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whoever is, does it and keep the lights on all the time. Sure. Uh, I mean, that's probably too much
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for this, uh, for this segment, but, uh, I, I have been looking at, we're all going to be driving
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electric cars and if we're all going to heat our homes with electricity and not natural gas, we're
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going to need a hell of a lot more generation and it's going to have to be reliable because I don't
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want my house to go cold because the wind isn't blowing. Absolutely. Absolutely. So yeah, no,
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it's going to require a far deeper policy conversation, particularly in a cold climate,
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uh, Lake, Lake Alberta, uh, to, to make sure that we are able to do this in a sustainable manner. And,
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uh, the NDPs is far too ambitious and accelerated and it's going to cost a lot of money. And that was
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the announcement made yesterday. So if it's not the economy and stuff like this is, uh, frankly,
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not going to be a vote switcher, is it about Rachel Notley and Daniel Smith, a popularity contest?
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I think more so than ever, this is a personality driven race. Uh, you know, to be clear, voters will
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still vote on the economy. The economy will come in mind, but they won't be punishing anyone for,
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for a poor economy. We're not, we're in a, frankly, a rosy economy right now. Projections show that to
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continue. Our fiscal situation has been, is the best has been in decades in part, well, large in
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part buoyed by strong commodity prices, including our, our oil and gas sector. Uh, and, and, uh,
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and our employment numbers have completely recovered from the economic contractions that,
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that Rachel Notley oversaw and those that we saw, uh, for a period during, during the pandemic as well.
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So, so no, voters aren't going to be punishing this government on the economy. And therefore,
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I think it will be on other issues and they're going to look to these two leaders and their
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personalities and, uh, and, uh, how they identify as themselves and as leaders. And I think that's
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going to play out over the next three and a half weeks as well. So how important is it that a leader
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should be likable? Let me, let me put it to you this way. Suppose that they, suppose I had a serious
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operation, a medical procedure, they're going to open me up and put, hopefully put me back together
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again. I meet the surgeon and he turns out to be, let's just say, have no bedside manner.
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Sure. All right. But I am assured by everybody around me that this is the guy who knows how to
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take you apart and put you back together again, except no substitutes. Yep. All right. So now we
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come to, uh, somebody who we are putting in charge of, uh, province with a GDP of what? 102? Oh, it'd be
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enormous. A couple of hundred billion dollars at least. Yeah. Uh, 4 million people, all of whom are
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looking to government for leadership on the economy. How important is that that person also be
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personally attractive? It's not, it's not. And, uh, you know, it's certain jurisdictions and certain
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populations may disagree. Um, but we've seen it before and there are many examples of steady hand
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leadership, uh, being rewarded by a vote of the ballot, despite their distaste for their lack of
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personality, lack of persona, lack of charisma. Not many people like Stephen Harper are really itched to
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sit down and have a beer with him. Yet many regard him as greatest. That's the one thing he probably
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wouldn't have had. Maybe a Coke or a hamburger. Yeah, not a beer. Yeah, not a beer. Exactly. But
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many regard him as perhaps the best post-war prime minister this country's ever had. Uh, folks weren't
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exactly, uh, itching to hang out with Jason Kenney either in the lead up to 2019 or after. Uh, and he,
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uh, enjoyed the strongest mandate in provincial history only four years ago. So no, I don't think that
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it's necessarily important that, uh, a politician is well liked in order to be successful. So if you
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had advice for, um, for Daniel Smith, what would it be? Uh, Daniel Smith, I think can lack on message
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discipline at times. She's naturally curious, which is aided her in her career. Uh, that's what's
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made her a brilliant thinker and a brilliant prognosticator and pundit and has joined a long
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career in journalism and radio. Uh, but it's not often something that, uh, you want to carry into
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a political career and I know she's been working on that. Uh, but being stronger on her message
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discipline, being able to pivot and punch back and play the political game a little better,
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I think, uh, is something that I would advise her had she asked me for my advice. Um, and,
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and, and ensuring that at least during this campaign that voters are reminded every chance
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she gets, every time she's on the radio, every time she's in front of the press or in front of
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the cameras that she's reminding Albertans what 2015 to 2019 looked like a double digit
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unemployment in both major cities in Calgary and Edmonton. Outside of the Maritimes, that was the
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worst, uh, uh, unemployment numbers in the country at the time. Uh, there was the worst economic
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contractions in Alberta's history since including the great depression during those four years. And
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granted, not all of this was Rachel Nonnelies to blame. There was a complete collapse in the energy
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sector. Uh, but that is the undisputable fact. Uh, and she should be doing a better job of reminding
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Albertans on that. So should she be getting, should she in fact be making herself more available?
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You know, perhaps. Don't take the Joe Biden approach. Perhaps, perhaps. But I think there's
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something to be said about sometimes going down too deep of an esoteric policy rabbit hole. Um,
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regular Albertans, uh, won't care all that much about, uh, some of these global market forces and
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Alberta's investor response to it. Um, sure. Daniel Smith can talk circles around us on that. She's
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brilliant. Uh, but in a campaign where I have to be very clear in our campaign messaging, our political
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messaging. And, uh, while we are, well, the UCP do need to present a forward-looking vision.
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What will a UCP government do over the next four years? They also have to remind people about what an
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NDP government looked like from 2015 to 2019. And what's at stake? Should they decide to reelect
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Rachel Motley again? What did that government look like? Let me, let me think. We'll have to,
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okay. Three and a half weeks to go. Yeah. Let's see what they do with our good advice. Yeah. Let's
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see. It's been a pleasure to have you. Thanks so much. It's good to catch up. Yeah. Pleasure to be
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here. Always. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Nigel Haniford for the Western Standard.
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