Western Standard - Alberta Election weekly wrap-up

00:00:00.000 Good day, Western Standard Watchers. I'm Nigel Hannaford, and we're here to talk about what's

00:00:15.200 been going on this week in the election. I have with me here today, Mike Solberg. Mike is a

00:00:22.520 partner at New West Public Affairs, based here in Calgary. Mike, you're a former staffer in the

00:00:31.060 conservative government of Stephen Harper, I think. You bet. So you're one of those Solbergs? I am. 0.97

00:00:36.980 Yes. Okay. And your business is knowing what's going on. Correct. All right. Well, you're the man

00:00:41.880 we want. Mike, good afternoon. Thank you. You're so kind of trying to come over. Mike, we are going

00:00:49.540 through the first week of a very important election campaign. In your view, did anybody

00:00:57.600 fall off their chair, land a direct hit, score a home run? How are the two parties doing so far,

00:01:05.760 in your view? Sure. Sure. No, and that's the question. I think we're all looking back to see

00:01:10.100 how the past week was won. In my opinion, I don't think there's been any knockout punches delivered

00:01:16.700 yet. I think we're still working towards actually defining the campaign narrative. I think that both

00:01:22.520 parties are doing their work to try and earn the support of Albertans and trying to define the

00:01:27.800 ballot box question that they'll ultimately go in to the ballots on May 29th and cast votes with those

00:01:32.820 issues in mind. But I'm not sure that we've come to a conclusion on that yet. And I think both parties

00:01:37.260 still obviously have some life in them going into week two. So I shouldn't ask you what the ballot

00:01:41.280 question is because we don't know yet. Well, we know what the parties want them to be.

00:01:44.860 I'm not sure that the narrative has really gone and kind of made its way through the general public,

00:01:51.460 the voting public. I'm not sure that that's clear yet. The race is so close still. And I think once

00:01:58.140 and if one of these parties start to pull away, well, then I think we can probably start to

00:02:03.300 conclude what that ballot box question ultimately will be. But right now, with no conclusions yet.

00:02:08.300 Mike, it's very interesting that you said that this has not dribbled down to the general public yet.

00:02:13.660 We both were in different places worked the 2019 provincial election campaign.

00:02:20.260 Yeah. It's only three and a half weeks. It's not even three and a half weeks to the vote.

00:02:26.940 But it doesn't really feel like there's much buzz. There's not much going on. And is it just me or

00:02:34.580 are you feeling the same thing that this campaign is not like the 2019 campaign?

00:02:39.420 No, for sure. No, you and I share that view. I think it's been somewhat lackluster compared to 2019

00:02:44.640 in the first week. And I think there's a few reasons for that.

00:02:47.420 Well, I think one, there's a couple of reasons. One, I think that in 2019, there was a lot of optimism

00:02:53.400 in the 2019 campaign was the culmination of the long work that Jason Kenney had done to merge the

00:02:59.940 two right wing parties in the province, bring them together as a unified movement and then go into the

00:03:05.840 2019 campaign and ultimately win. So there was a lot of kind of buzz around that election.

00:03:12.420 There was a lot of, I think, issues that needed to be resolved. Rachel Nolley oversaw the largest

00:03:19.420 economic contractions in Alberta's history at that time. So there was change in the air.

00:03:25.660 Jason Kenney had enormous momentum, even eight months out. I think most people probably thought

00:03:30.560 that he was going to form government. He was a government in waiting. That's not the case right now.

00:03:35.660 The economy is doing well. Jobs have recovered. In fact, a lot of reports have shown that

00:03:40.460 all of the economic damage that was done during COVID has already been unwound.

00:03:45.680 So I don't think anybody's going to mind with punishing the sitting government because of

00:03:50.220 missteps with the economy. The UCP have that narrative in their side. The NDP don't have it

00:03:56.120 in their side. So if we're not voting on the economy this time, well, what are we voting on?

00:04:00.640 And I think that that's still playing out. And that's probably why the campaign has been somewhat

00:04:04.260 lackluster so far, because the issues aren't clear.

00:04:06.980 And Rachel Nolley and Daniel Smith are both known quantities. We're not dealing with new

00:04:12.000 personalities here. Whereas Jason Kenney, granted he was a long-time federal minister,

00:04:16.480 was new to the provincial stage. So there at least was some drama and excitement around that.

00:04:21.540 That's not the case with Rachel Nolley and Daniel Smith.

00:04:24.700 Daniel needs to get a blue Dodge truck.

00:04:26.840 Yeah, she needs something.

00:04:28.180 Okay. Well, all right. If it's not about the economy, and you're right, it really shouldn't be.

00:04:37.200 And yet Rachel Nolley is trying to make it about the economy with an announcement yesterday, 1.00

00:04:42.520 wants to invest, as she would call it, I would call it spend, $400 million in what she is calling 0.98

00:04:49.680 the, what is she calling it?

00:04:52.100 Alberta's Future Tax Credit.

00:04:53.820 Yeah, right. Talk to me about that. Is this actually an investment, or is this just a,

00:05:00.300 like, I noticed there was a payoff to the union buddies in their training program. What is this

00:05:05.360 really all about?

00:05:06.100 Yeah, well, I mean, tax credits are a way to incentivize investment into our economy. And they

00:05:11.700 only are paid out when these profitable companies who are enjoying the tax credit are profitable.

00:05:16.980 Uh, and, uh, and that's how these tax credits, you know, kind of operate. And it is, uh, kind

00:05:22.420 of the inverse to at least the managing style of the UCP in 2019, who were quite, uh, immune

00:05:27.980 to the tax credit conversation. They limited, uh, eliminated the tax credits that were created

00:05:32.660 by the then Nolley government almost, almost right away. That eventually changed. Uh, one

00:05:37.760 of the biggest policy planks that the UCP have, have put a feather in their cap over is the

00:05:42.760 film and television, television tax credit, which did an extraordinary, uh, job in attracting

00:05:47.700 big productions to Alberta and big money.

00:05:53.160 Rachel Nolley is now trying to do the same, but of no surprise. Uh, their government had

00:05:57.700 it in 2015 to 2019, and now a Nolley government would, would certainly do it again. Frankly,

00:06:02.260 I think it's smart. We should be incentivizing and offering economic opportunity and incentives

00:06:08.140 like tax credits, uh, to, to, to companies all over the world. Uh, we should make this

00:06:13.620 a competitive jurisdiction. So I thought that was a smart policy from, from Rachel Nolley.

00:06:17.480 All right. Okay. That's, um, she says that it will pay for itself. I think we've heard,

00:06:24.640 uh, heard other people say that large expenditures will pay for themselves.

00:06:29.160 You have.

00:06:30.080 Um, so you, you're buying them.

00:06:31.960 Well, I mean, I'm buying the, I'm buying tax credits as a, as a way to bring investment to

00:06:37.580 the economy because they're only paid out when these companies are paying, uh, taxes,

00:06:42.720 therefore profitable, uh, in the province. So, you know, I think it's, I think we're right

00:06:48.280 to be skeptical of these things, how they work in practice. She was light on details. We need

00:06:52.520 to see what the eligibility criteria and these types of things are. And that type of stuff,

00:06:56.920 of course, won't be fleshed out until, uh, if Rachel Nolley were successful in winning 0.96

00:07:02.080 this race, um, and, uh, the jury's still out and what's going to occur there. So we'll probably

00:07:06.460 not, uh, have the details that I think you and I need, Nigel, to really break this down.

00:07:10.320 Okay. Let's, let's, let's move on. And let's talk, talking about details.

00:07:14.260 Yeah. Um, yesterday there, there was a feature announcement from the UCP in which, uh, some

00:07:23.260 people say they got the numbers mixed up when speaking here of the, the ASO report, uh, Rachel

00:07:31.380 Notley said, this is 87, we're going to, uh, it's going to cost $87 billion to do what we

00:07:39.900 want to do, which is carbon net zero by 2035. The announcement was, well, that's a lot of

00:07:44.720 money, isn't it? Uh, and yet now there's some controversy about just how much money that

00:07:50.960 is. Can you explain that for the viewers?

00:07:52.480 Well, yeah. So, uh, you know, uh, the controversy is hardly a controversy in my opinion. Uh, the

00:07:58.580 UCP made the claim that under the NDP's plan to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035,

00:08:05.780 it would cost 20 or $87 billion. And this was cited, uh, through this independent research

00:08:12.880 firm called, uh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, as well as, uh, as well as ASO themselves. And

00:08:19.920 they pulled data from both reports. Hey, so we, maybe we should just explain what that

00:08:23.520 is. Yeah. Alberta's electricity system operator, the regulator of Alberta's electricity system.

00:08:27.280 Okay. Yeah. Uh, and per their report, uh, they pulled details from both. And that was

00:08:31.820 the conclusion they came to. Now, Novius came out and said, uh, well, no, to be clear, this

00:08:39.160 is not what we're concluding and asked for a correction, which was that the, of the 87 billion,

00:08:45.480 uh, $52 billion of that. That's the cost that it would be to decarbonize the electricity grid

00:08:52.740 by 2035. And then the years following by 2040 and 2015 real dollars, the cost of the economy

00:08:59.820 would be 35 billion from the province's GDP. That's, that's $87 billion, Nigel. So sure it

00:09:07.300 was imprecise, uh, which is frankly something that I'm sure the UCP wish they could, could do

00:09:12.960 over again, but the proof is in the pudding. It's still an extraordinarily expensive and ambitious

00:09:17.760 plan from the NDP to decarbonize on those timelines. The UCP said that they would do it by

00:09:22.360 2050, um, which would be cheaper, presumably. Um, but is this a controversy? No. Uh, the

00:09:29.700 clarification was already made by the UCP late last night, and it was accepted in its language by

00:09:35.000 Novius, the independent firm that was hired to look at this in the first place. And for this to be

00:09:39.100 controversy outside of the bubble, outside of the mainstream media, you would have to talk to people

00:09:44.340 on the, on, on the street and assume that they know what you and I are talking about, Nigel, when

00:09:48.220 we're speaking about this issue. And I can guarantee you, if we pulled 200 people outside this building

00:09:51.840 right now, they would have no earthly clue what we're talking about. So no, I think the page has

00:09:56.260 already turned on this so-called controversy and we'll move on to the next one. All right. So what the,

00:10:00.900 what the real issue in all of that is, is whether they're going to be able to do all of that,

00:10:05.660 whoever is, does it and keep the lights on all the time. Sure. Uh, I mean, that's probably too much

00:10:13.540 for this, uh, for this segment, but, uh, I, I have been looking at, we're all going to be driving

00:10:18.900 electric cars and if we're all going to heat our homes with electricity and not natural gas, we're

00:10:23.540 going to need a hell of a lot more generation and it's going to have to be reliable because I don't 0.98

00:10:28.180 want my house to go cold because the wind isn't blowing. Absolutely. Absolutely. So yeah, no,

00:10:35.880 it's going to require a far deeper policy conversation, particularly in a cold climate,

00:10:40.820 uh, Lake, Lake Alberta, uh, to, to make sure that we are able to do this in a sustainable manner. And,

00:10:46.740 uh, the NDPs is far too ambitious and accelerated and it's going to cost a lot of money. And that was

00:10:52.240 the announcement made yesterday. So if it's not the economy and stuff like this is, uh, frankly,

00:11:00.200 not going to be a vote switcher, is it about Rachel Notley and Daniel Smith, a popularity contest?

00:11:09.020 I think more so than ever, this is a personality driven race. Uh, you know, to be clear, voters will

00:11:15.860 still vote on the economy. The economy will come in mind, but they won't be punishing anyone for,

00:11:21.020 for a poor economy. We're not, we're in a, frankly, a rosy economy right now. Projections show that to

00:11:26.760 continue. Our fiscal situation has been, is the best has been in decades in part, well, large in

00:11:31.920 part buoyed by strong commodity prices, including our, our oil and gas sector. Uh, and, and, uh,

00:11:38.400 and our employment numbers have completely recovered from the economic contractions that,

00:11:42.380 that Rachel Notley oversaw and those that we saw, uh, for a period during, during the pandemic as well.

00:11:48.120 So, so no, voters aren't going to be punishing this government on the economy. And therefore,

00:11:52.400 I think it will be on other issues and they're going to look to these two leaders and their

00:11:56.380 personalities and, uh, and, uh, how they identify as themselves and as leaders. And I think that's

00:12:02.080 going to play out over the next three and a half weeks as well. So how important is it that a leader

00:12:07.920 should be likable? Let me, let me put it to you this way. Suppose that they, suppose I had a serious

00:12:13.460 operation, a medical procedure, they're going to open me up and put, hopefully put me back together

00:12:17.740 again. I meet the surgeon and he turns out to be, let's just say, have no bedside manner.

00:12:24.620 Sure. All right. But I am assured by everybody around me that this is the guy who knows how to

00:12:30.060 take you apart and put you back together again, except no substitutes. Yep. All right. So now we

00:12:35.540 come to, uh, somebody who we are putting in charge of, uh, province with a GDP of what? 102? Oh, it'd be

00:12:44.860 enormous. A couple of hundred billion dollars at least. Yeah. Uh, 4 million people, all of whom are

00:12:51.180 looking to government for leadership on the economy. How important is that that person also be

00:12:59.980 personally attractive? It's not, it's not. And, uh, you know, it's certain jurisdictions and certain

00:13:07.820 populations may disagree. Um, but we've seen it before and there are many examples of steady hand

00:13:14.800 leadership, uh, being rewarded by a vote of the ballot, despite their distaste for their lack of

00:13:20.500 personality, lack of persona, lack of charisma. Not many people like Stephen Harper are really itched to

00:13:26.820 sit down and have a beer with him. Yet many regard him as greatest. That's the one thing he probably

00:13:30.400 wouldn't have had. Maybe a Coke or a hamburger. Yeah, not a beer. Yeah, not a beer. Exactly. But

00:13:36.280 many regard him as perhaps the best post-war prime minister this country's ever had. Uh, folks weren't

00:13:41.580 exactly, uh, itching to hang out with Jason Kenney either in the lead up to 2019 or after. Uh, and he,

00:13:48.020 uh, enjoyed the strongest mandate in provincial history only four years ago. So no, I don't think that

00:13:54.900 it's necessarily important that, uh, a politician is well liked in order to be successful. So if you

00:14:00.800 had advice for, um, for Daniel Smith, what would it be? Uh, Daniel Smith, I think can lack on message

00:14:07.840 discipline at times. She's naturally curious, which is aided her in her career. Uh, that's what's

00:14:13.620 made her a brilliant thinker and a brilliant prognosticator and pundit and has joined a long

00:14:18.160 career in journalism and radio. Uh, but it's not often something that, uh, you want to carry into

00:14:23.580 a political career and I know she's been working on that. Uh, but being stronger on her message 0.96

00:14:28.120 discipline, being able to pivot and punch back and play the political game a little better,

00:14:32.520 I think, uh, is something that I would advise her had she asked me for my advice. Um, and,

00:14:37.780 and, and ensuring that at least during this campaign that voters are reminded every chance

00:14:43.460 she gets, every time she's on the radio, every time she's in front of the press or in front of

00:14:47.720 the cameras that she's reminding Albertans what 2015 to 2019 looked like a double digit

00:14:54.680 unemployment in both major cities in Calgary and Edmonton. Outside of the Maritimes, that was the

00:15:00.400 worst, uh, uh, unemployment numbers in the country at the time. Uh, there was the worst economic

00:15:06.900 contractions in Alberta's history since including the great depression during those four years. And

00:15:12.460 granted, not all of this was Rachel Nonnelies to blame. There was a complete collapse in the energy 0.99

00:15:16.980 sector. Uh, but that is the undisputable fact. Uh, and she should be doing a better job of reminding 0.76

00:15:22.720 Albertans on that. So should she be getting, should she in fact be making herself more available?

00:15:27.940 You know, perhaps. Don't take the Joe Biden approach. Perhaps, perhaps. But I think there's

00:15:32.700 something to be said about sometimes going down too deep of an esoteric policy rabbit hole. Um,

00:15:38.240 regular Albertans, uh, won't care all that much about, uh, some of these global market forces and

00:15:44.320 Alberta's investor response to it. Um, sure. Daniel Smith can talk circles around us on that. She's

00:15:49.480 brilliant. Uh, but in a campaign where I have to be very clear in our campaign messaging, our political

00:15:54.640 messaging. And, uh, while we are, well, the UCP do need to present a forward-looking vision.

00:16:00.200 What will a UCP government do over the next four years? They also have to remind people about what an

00:16:05.920 NDP government looked like from 2015 to 2019. And what's at stake? Should they decide to reelect

00:16:11.340 Rachel Motley again? What did that government look like? Let me, let me think. We'll have to, 0.96

00:16:18.100 okay. Three and a half weeks to go. Yeah. Let's see what they do with our good advice. Yeah. Let's

00:16:25.660 see. It's been a pleasure to have you. Thanks so much. It's good to catch up. Yeah. Pleasure to be

00:16:31.920 here. Always. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Nigel Haniford for the Western Standard.

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Western Standard - May 05, 2023

Alberta Election weekly wrap-up

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