Western Standard - Alberta Pension Plan engagement update

00:00:00.000 Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to be here with Mr. Jim

00:00:06.020 Denning, former Minister of Finance and Chair of the Alberta Pension Plan Engagement Panel

00:00:10.940 to provide an update on where we're at with the public engagement process and I'd say

00:00:16.600 the process overall. Before I invite Jim to the podium for a few words, I'd like to provide

00:00:22.440 you with a brief summary of what has led us here today. In 2020, the Fair Deal Panel released

00:00:27.960 report with a range of recommendations for government's consideration one of which was

00:00:32.200 to explore the potential of creating an alberta pension plan and withdrawing from the canada

00:00:37.480 pension plan the first step was to engage the expertise of an expert external independent

00:00:43.720 firm to develop a detailed analysis of the costs benefits and structure of a potential provincial

00:00:50.200 plan that work was awarded to toronto-based morno chapelle who shortly after became lifeworks our

00:00:57.320 government committed to sharing the results of that report which we did this past fall

00:01:02.840 as a starting point to explore the potential of an alberta pension plan with all albertans

00:01:09.720 using the best information and analysis available and appointing a talented and trusted engagement

00:01:16.040 panel with jim at the helm we've seen tens of thousands of albertans review the report

00:01:21.880 and participate in a range of engagement activities where their voices could be heard

00:01:26.200 i recently met with jim and he provided me with a status update from the panel

00:01:31.560 that in the continued spirit of transparency i wanted to share with albertans

00:01:36.680 immediately at this point i'd like to invite jim up to the mic to go over the panel's

00:01:41.160 observations and recommendations in his own words jim

00:01:45.000 good morning everyone nice to see you graham it's been a long time um as the minister said my name

00:01:57.080 is jim dinning i chair the engagement panel for the proposed alberta pension plan and the first

00:02:03.640 round of our engagement has come to a close and i wanted to provide an update as the minister has

00:02:09.160 Our panel held five telephone

00:02:11.200 town hall meetings during

00:02:13.200 October and November in the

00:02:15.200 five regions across the

00:02:17.200 province, about 15,000 people

00:02:19.200 participated in each session

00:02:21.200 either by telephone or online

00:02:23.200 with over 76,000 participants

00:02:25.200 in total.

00:02:27.220 If you had the pleasure of

00:02:29.220 listening in to any of those,

00:02:31.220 you would have heard 142

00:02:33.220 people contribute live

00:02:35.220 during the meetings and

00:02:37.180 during the meetings, and we logged about 3,800 comments and questions throughout the process.

00:02:44.920 It's fair to say that we heard from many Albertans who oppose the idea of exiting the Canada pension

00:02:53.000 plan and moving to an Alberta plan. Many of them quite passionate. There is no doubt that this is

00:03:00.560 a sensitive issue for a lot of people, but especially those who worry about a vital source

00:03:07.480 of their retirement income. But we also heard from a number of Albertans who are entirely

00:03:13.920 in favor of an Alberta pension plan, some of them supporters of the government taking greater control

00:03:20.760 of the province's destiny, some thinking it a good way of enhancing our financial sector,

00:03:27.620 And others supportive of an APP because of the savings it might offer either higher benefits or lower premiums or both.

00:03:37.640 But there are many people, many people who still need more information before deciding.

00:03:44.300 They're concerned about how an Alberta plan investment fund would be managed, whether their pensions would remain portable.

00:03:52.300 And of course, the big question is the number.

00:03:55.780 What is Albertans' share of the Canada Pension Plan assets if an Alberta plan is established?

00:04:03.680 Albertans want greater clarity around that asset transfer.

00:04:09.300 From the panel's perspective, uncertainty around the asset transfer is a barrier to moving our engagement discussions forward in a meaningful way.

00:04:19.540 It is hard for Albertans to provide concrete perspectives when many variables concerning an Alberta plan depend upon the size of that asset transfer.

00:04:31.860 Our panel had originally intended to host in-person engagement sessions following the town hall meetings in October and November,

00:04:40.020 and we thought we would host in-person sessions in December, followed by another round of meetings in the new year.

00:04:48.200 However, we believe it would be prudent to schedule these meetings after Albertans have greater clarity about an asset transfer number.

00:04:58.940 The federal government has committed to ask the office of the chief actuary for its perspective in this regard.

00:05:06.540 While that perspective may not settle the matter conclusively, it will provide additional context and assist to making our panel's conversations with Albertans more productive.

00:05:19.460 In the meantime, our panel will engage in other elements of our mandate, such as how an investment fund ought to be managed, how it ought to be set up, and then how it ought to be managed.

00:05:30.340 There's aspects around benefits administration.

00:05:34.080 There are issues around portability both inside Canada and beyond.

00:05:40.220 And we will continue to explore those aspects through meetings with investment experts,

00:05:46.400 business groups, and seniors groups over the next few weeks.

00:05:49.980 As promised, back in September, our panel released a workbook.

00:05:54.560 It's at albertapensionplan.ca.

00:05:57.180 that the workbook invites Albertans to read, digest, and comment and complete that workbook.

00:06:04.960 It offers plenty of space for qualitative feedback, and we have no doubt that Albertans

00:06:11.200 will be open and frank with their comments as they have been to date, and we strongly

00:06:17.460 encourage that.

00:06:18.840 So on behalf of the panel, I want to thank everyone who has participated in the process

00:06:23.420 so far.

00:06:24.100 I want to thank them for their patience with us and for the wisdom and thoughts that they have contributed.

00:06:31.020 Back to you, Minister.

00:06:35.800 Thank you, Jim.

00:06:37.640 I'd like all Albertans to know that our government understands the concerns and questions related to the possibility of a provincial pension plan.

00:06:46.600 When I was first briefed on the LifeWorks report, I had many of the same questions.

00:06:51.700 I did see the potential and now understand the importance of province-wide deliberation

00:06:57.220 on the promise the report holds but I also saw the need for assurances while we have these

00:07:02.340 important discussions. That is why very early in this engagement process I introduced the Alberta

00:07:08.500 Pension Protection Act so Albertans could rest assured that their future their retirement is

00:07:12.740 secure no matter what. Albertans have worked hard to build a solid economic foundation for our

00:07:18.020 province and the entire country has benefited from our efforts it's no surprise then that this topic

00:07:24.020 has gained so much attention across the country however the federal government has made clear that

00:07:29.140 alberta just like any other province has the right to explore explore a provincial pension plan

00:07:35.380 alberta's government is hopeful that the office of the chief actuaries work can be completed

00:07:39.940 promptly so that albertans can have as much information as possible as they consider the

00:07:44.660 possibility of a new plan albertans wanted more precise information on the value of the asset

00:07:51.380 transfer alberta would be entitled to receive if it were to withdraw from the canada pension plan

00:07:56.820 and we are listening i'm very pleased the engagement panel is taking a prudent measure

00:08:01.140 by giving the office of the chief actuary the time required to release the findings of their opinion

00:08:06.980 on the asset transfer amount and any other information on the cpp withdrawal process

00:08:12.260 from the government of canada that we're waiting for and have repeatedly asked for i also sent a

00:08:18.340 letter to the office of the chief actuary asking for more details this week alberta welcomes their

00:08:23.940 actuarial calculation on this important issue and i'd like to thank them in advance for their work

00:08:29.940 i'd also like to thank all members of the alberta pension plan engagement panel

00:08:34.100 moyn yaya mary ritchie and of course mr denning for their commitment to listening to albertans

00:08:40.820 and for their thoughtful approach to responding swiftly to what they've heard today we have been

00:08:46.340 clear all along albertans will choose what happens with their pensions we will put the interest of

00:08:51.060 albertans first and respect whatever choice they make it is necessary to receive the office of the

00:08:56.580 chief actuaries comprehensive analysis to progress this important conversation and my commitment to

00:09:02.020 albertans is that once we have more information we will share it so thank you i now turn it back to

00:09:07.220 savannah to moderate the q a great thanks minister we'll now take some questions from

00:09:11.700 reporters just reminder one question one follow-up state your name and ella for the record

00:09:16.020 and i do ask if you're in person just to raise your hand dean i see you're ready to go i'll go

00:09:19.940 with you first yeah yeah minister dean for cp so i just want to clarify something uh that you said

00:09:27.140 in the house because one of the key questions we've heard at the town hall is how is this fund

00:09:31.380 going to be matched what is the investment strategy will all the funds be returned to

00:09:36.020 maximize profits or will we follow the quebec model and perhaps use some of that money to invest in

00:09:41.940 other provincial projects and so okay go ahead sorry so uh on october 12th you told jesperson

00:09:50.820 uh quebec model that's off the table we're not doing that in fact i'll bring in legislation to

00:09:55.220 make that clear which we never saw a few days later your office said no no no the uh the quebec

00:10:00.820 model is still on the table and albertans will have a decision to make on wednesday you told the

00:10:05.860 house because the ndp wrote amendments saying we need to clarify your conflicting statements

00:10:10.900 and you told the house quote i've been clear assets transferred from the cpp to an operative

00:10:16.740 pension plan and future contributions of employers and employees will solely solely be used to set

00:10:22.980 up and operate a provincial pension plan so now the quebec model is off the table so i just want

00:10:28.020 to clarify that so the correct model now is off the table is that correct minister well what bill

00:10:33.540 2 says it's a simple bill it says that any asset withdrawn from cpp can only be used to set up and

00:10:41.220 operate an alberta pension plan no yeah but we're talking about future ones minister sorry i need

00:10:46.900 to clarify future future mr you know what i'm asking you you have told jesperson that we're not

00:10:56.500 going to use a quebec water your office has told me you are going to use a quebec water you told

00:11:00.100 the house this week you're not going to use a quebec model are you going to use a quebec

00:11:04.740 the lifeworks report doesn't say anything about the investment strategy or or who should do it

00:11:11.780 it's very clear that that's not what the report is about what bill two says is that any asset

00:11:16.740 withdrawn can only be used for the setup and operation of an app you're hedging the answer

00:11:22.980 i'm going to make you're hedging the answer you're not answering the question so i'm going to assume

00:11:27.220 that the Quebec model is still on the table. Which means in the last 10 weeks

00:11:32.100 you have stated a policy, reversed it, reversed the reversal, and then today reversed the reverse

00:11:38.020 reversal. So my question sir, with respect, why are you flip-flopping with Albertans on this

00:11:44.260 critical question? I have never flip-flopped on this issue. Go back to what my comments were. I

00:11:50.180 have said that they could only be used for the setup and operation of a plan. Now what I said was

00:11:56.660 i i have no idea what the panel or future albertans are going to advise

00:12:03.620 a government of the day to do but i've been completely clear that if albertans are to go

00:12:08.980 down this path of pursuing an app this is what we put in bill two to speak to that that can only be

00:12:15.620 used for the setup and operation of the plan on the table or off what do you what do you tell

00:12:20.820 the quebec model if if albertans were to come back if we were to go through this process and

00:12:27.860 say that this is exactly what they want they would have to have that conversation with the government

00:12:32.100 of the day for albertans to decide to go down this path it can only be used for the setup and

00:12:36.820 operation of the plan that's hey thanks minister gramia go ahead and ask you a question come on

00:12:44.660 over to the podium then it's the follow-up to that um you'd be looking you said you won't be

00:12:51.140 stopping your work you won't be doing any more public engagement but this whole issue about um

00:12:56.100 how do we invest the money and you know the cpp better than i think about anybody because if you

00:13:02.020 worked 30 years ago um the cpp doesn't tie itself to just canadian companies um is a quebec in your

00:13:10.020 mind when it comes to investing how we invest is a quebec model a possibility that you might

00:13:16.260 recommend to the government it's a good question uh we've made it clear that we're listening to

00:13:22.900 albertans and throughout uh our five town hall meetings we heard from some albertans who said

00:13:31.140 absolutely bloody no do not go down the quebec model route and then on the other hand there

00:13:37.220 were a number of albertans who said no that using some of those funds this is what they said not

00:13:43.140 what i'm saying but what albertans said is yes use possibly use some of those funds to build

00:13:51.060 and enhance the alberta economy so we're listening we're hearing both sides we've not finished our

00:13:59.220 engagement process and once we get greater clarity around the number we'll recommence in person and

00:14:06.100 town hall meetings on that issue about the chief actuary the number um it's a pretty complicated

00:14:11.460 issue the formula is very clear how soon i've talked to some experts who figure this could

00:14:16.580 take a year to hear back from the federal government and also they may just give you a

00:14:20.900 range of numbers like not one fixed number but a whole range of numbers how do you see it again

00:14:26.180 you know how the cpp works you know how complicated this is how soon do you expect to get an answer

00:14:31.620 from the chief actuary and do you expect it to be one number or a whole range of i have

00:14:37.780 the the chief actuary will report to the minister of finance for canada who will then report to the

00:14:44.340 minister of finance for alberta so it's not it's not for for me no no i know you're asking i'm

00:14:50.820 trying to explain and i know you want me to stop explaining and get to the the nugget you're looking

00:14:55.940 for but the fact is we don't have an expectation we're hopeful that it can be done hopefully by

00:15:02.660 mid-february no later than than q1 it graham i learned in government there's no problem we can't

00:15:11.300 make bigger and i don't think getting this number out of the chief actuary should be a monumental

00:15:20.020 lengthy task thanks jim yeah no you can't i would just say you know i think it's gonna be

00:15:32.180 it's very tough to speculate one of the one of the things we're trying to see clarity on we've

00:15:36.660 reached out to minister freeland's office and the chief actuaries is to how is this

00:15:43.620 initiative being proposed by minister freeland to the chief actuary you know what are the terms

00:15:47.780 of reference what exactly is she asking the chief actuary to do so i'd i'd like some details on that

00:15:54.100 when it comes to the timeline i really don't think we can speculate we know the chief actuary has

00:15:59.780 better data than the publicly available data that lifeworks had to use but as far as timeline i i

00:16:06.260 think any speculation would be kind of uh challenging at this point until until we at

00:16:13.140 least hear back from. Is mid-February something that you might agree with Jim Didding on?

00:16:18.980 Well, I'd say that is hopeful and I hope to get some clarity when I go to FPT

00:16:24.900 next week, talk to Minister Freeland. Michelle, yeah, go ahead.

00:16:29.380 Yeah, I guess this is a larger question. Why are we continuing with this? I mean,

00:16:34.980 there's been so much pushback and we know there's been a lot of pushback. We know that you have,

00:16:39.860 you know premier's office has received a lot of emails against this there's a lot of uncertainty

00:16:45.780 out there and now we're hearing that we're going to sort of pause the the consultation

00:16:52.180 what's the point of continuing like like why well i think we've we've started this process

00:16:59.140 you know um we released the report um very pleased that the that the federal government at least

00:17:06.820 participate in the sense that they want to get the chief actuary involved so i think

00:17:10.660 it's important to see what the chief actuary comes back with this has been talked about for a long

00:17:16.340 time in this province so i think getting that number and seeing that through while we obviously

00:17:23.780 are taking taking some time on the engagement side because we've heard the challenges around

00:17:29.460 clarity of the withdrawal number but i think it's important to to get that number and and have a

00:17:34.820 a better understand have a better understanding about this initiative um it would seem premature

00:17:39.940 to just uh pack it in if that's what you're is it is it really premature i mean we've been talking

00:17:48.260 about this now for many months i mean it doesn't seem to be seem to see we're not seeing a huge

00:17:53.700 shift in public opinion well i'd say that's all we've done is talk about it right we've released

00:17:58.580 a report we've had a conversation about it so i don't see a challenge with getting more clarity

00:18:04.020 around around the number and then it'll be much easier to determine if this uh has any potential

00:18:10.820 to proceed or not after that okay great thanks matthew yeah go ahead matthew black with the

00:18:16.580 journal you talked about some of the feedback you've gotten there's some how many you've gotten

00:18:20.420 are you able to break down that in favor of pro and against the uh as far as feedback to the panel

00:18:26.420 Well, I guess I'd ask Jim to comment.

00:18:30.500 So in round numbers, our take on what Albertans told the panel was that about 50% of Albertans say no, no, don't go to an APP.

00:18:42.460 About 20, 25% have said we're in favor of it.

00:18:46.580 And I'd say then 25 to 30% are still undecided.

00:18:53.100 And they've said give us more information.

00:18:55.160 And even those who have expressed opposition have said, no, but, no, but I need more information.

00:19:03.400 So I think the buckets are 50, 25, 25, plus or minus.

00:19:09.020 There's a question for the minister.

00:19:10.380 You said in the House earlier this week you were going to request an update from Deputy Prime Minister Freeland on the actuarial.

00:19:16.140 Did you get a response?

00:19:17.100 What was the update?

00:19:18.940 No, we've requested it.

00:19:21.000 I guess we've sent a letter asking where we're at on this.

00:19:24.100 but I know I'll see her next week, FPTs in Toronto, so I guess we'll follow up.

00:19:29.260 We haven't heard back from Minister Freeland's office or the chief actuary

00:19:34.260 since she made clear that she was going to get them involved in the process.

00:19:40.540 And through some of her commentary, you know, we kind of expected that they would want to reach out to our department

00:19:47.240 and at least have an information sharing session, and that hasn't happened yet.

00:19:51.740 so yeah we just need to get a better understanding if the minister freeland's prepared to give terms

00:19:57.340 of reference to the chief actuary better we better understand the timeline of that first so

00:20:03.740 okay great jenna go ahead uh just a question for mr getting um i will listen to at least

00:20:09.420 three of the town halls where you were really defending this report and this 53 number saying

00:20:15.980 it was by professional actuaries of a highly responsible firm now it feels like you're saying

00:20:21.500 oh well people have doubts about that number so we absolutely need to see this other analysis

00:20:26.300 before we can move forward and take this back to albertans what changed have you lost faith

00:20:31.180 or do you have no doubts about the life works report conclusion look the there's been one

00:20:38.220 actuarial report done one more no chapelle did that report a few times actually and uh and concluded

00:20:47.980 that with their findings it's a gobsmacking number uh there isn't anybody that i know

00:20:56.220 who isn't surprised by the number but if but as i read through the report uh i pulled out my own

00:21:04.540 handy dandy calculator and went through the numbers and and found that over that number

00:21:10.220 over those period of years that contributions by albertans and their employers were x

00:21:19.980 benefits paid to albertans in column two were y and x minus y adds up to 60 billion dollars

00:21:29.580 over 55 plus years, and that doesn't include the amount of interest that's earned on the

00:21:37.380 accumulating balance, and that's how LifeWorks has come up with the number. Lots of dispute

00:21:44.700 about it. People have disputed it since day one, and what the government has wisely done

00:21:52.440 has said okay federal government you're you're you're you're overseeing the cpp tell us what

00:21:58.760 your opinion is of that number and i think asking the chief actuary for canada another actuarial

00:22:06.280 professional certified actuarial expert to opine upon the number is the smart thing to do and what

00:22:14.120 as i said in my remarks what we found is that the the the difficulty with that number was was a

00:22:21.080 a barrier to further and, frankly, better conversations with Albertans about what an

00:22:27.700 Alberta pension plan could look like. And in that sense, we've learned through the process

00:22:33.660 that Albertans are concerned about that. And we want to help break down, maybe not totally

00:22:41.520 eliminate, but at least break down that barrier so we can have productive conversations after

00:22:46.960 there's more clarity i just want to follow up on matthew's question um first of all 25 plus 30 plus

00:22:53.760 50 percent adds up to i said 50 i said 50 and then i said excuse me 20 to 25 would be four

00:23:04.080 and i said look i i don't i don't have i don't have the calculator here with me i'm giving you

00:23:10.640 a sense of the conversations that we had with Albertans on the five calls and then other

00:23:17.820 commentary that's come in. So I don't have the calculator number you're looking for.

00:23:26.980 I'm giving you a sense of what the panel has heard in the first five town hall meetings

00:23:32.020 and additional engagement.

00:23:34.240 Is it from your notes or is it a vibe?

00:23:36.620 I'm sorry?

00:23:37.440 It's from your notes or?

00:23:38.840 It is from the notes that all of us took during the town hall meeting.

00:23:43.840 Okay, thanks Jim. We're going to go to the phones now and we'll come back. Operator, can you put through the first caller?

00:23:51.840 Jonathan Bradley, Western Standard.

00:23:55.840 Hello, Mr. Denning. Thank you for taking my question. So you spoke about the large number of people coming out to these panels, but obviously many people aren't.

00:24:07.840 What are you going to do to try to recruit more people to come and offer feedback?

00:24:14.920 Plow on.

00:24:16.940 It's the only way we're going to engage more Albertans.

00:24:20.960 And I think that there is, I said back in September, that this is a rinsing and soaking process.

00:24:28.500 The Albertans didn't have the facts that are in the Morneau-Chapelle report.

00:24:33.260 They now have that.

00:24:34.580 we put out a workbook at albertapensionplan.ca that asks more questions, leaves more room for

00:24:43.480 more narrative comments, and ask Albertans if the stars, I'm paraphrasing here, but if the stars

00:24:53.200 lined up the right way, would you or would you not be in favor of an Alberta pension plan?

00:24:59.740 And so I think of this, it's an awful lot, like a long project.

00:25:08.520 God knows I've been through the renovation from hell.

00:25:11.680 But before we started the renovation, we thought, what do we want?

00:25:16.380 How much can we afford?

00:25:18.540 And before the project was done, a long time later, we went through various go, no-go states, positions along that project.

00:25:28.560 And today, we're really in the design phase of this project.

00:25:34.360 The government has said, we want Albertans to know about this.

00:25:38.820 We want them to think about it.

00:25:40.500 What options do they want?

00:25:42.220 How much money is involved?

00:25:43.840 And we're very much in the early phases of where an Alberta pension plan could end up.

00:25:51.840 And there will be plenty of go, no-go points along that project's development.

00:25:58.560 Samana, just a comment on Catherine's question on the LifeWorks report.

00:26:04.660 Just something to make clear, one thing that we're encouraged about the chief actuary being

00:26:11.160 involved is that LifeWorks, Morneau-Chapelle had to use publicly available data.

00:26:16.700 The chief actuary has access to a lot more precise data.

00:26:20.820 So that's something that we think will help as we seek clarity around the calculation.

00:26:28.560 Okay, my follow-up question is, assuming Albertans don't support moving forward with the Alberta

00:26:39.020 pension plan, what possible alternative could be reforming the Canada pension plan?

00:26:45.460 Where do you stand on that, Mr. Denning?

00:26:51.760 He reformed it once.

00:26:54.760 Once was enough.

00:26:58.560 Did you have a comment for the gentleman?

00:27:00.560 I don't.

00:27:03.560 We don't have much to give you there, sir,

00:27:07.560 but I'd say that if that was the direction

00:27:11.560 or the CPP needed to be reformed for whatever reason

00:27:16.560 that everyone would have to move that direction.

00:27:19.560 Okay.

00:27:20.560 Yeah, thanks, Minister.

00:27:22.560 Next, we're going to go to the operator.

00:27:25.560 Operator, can you put through the next caller, please?

00:27:27.560 Thank you for taking my question. This required exercise was predicated on the $334 billion

00:27:39.680 and now you're saying, well, people found that number unreal. You budgeted $9.3 million

00:27:46.480 for advertising and for the consultation. Why did you start this process with a number

00:27:55.480 that you are now competing is not realistic well i'm not saying it's not realistic i'm saying it's

00:28:02.600 it's the number that we had you know if you want to equate what this means on to contributions or

00:28:09.080 benefits that is the best that is the best information we had through the process even the

00:28:15.240 the lifeworks report shows a range from 260 to 364 billion dollars due to the fact that they're

00:28:24.280 using publicly available data so i think the important thing is you have to use the asset

00:28:30.520 number to figure out what it means to contributions and benefits and we were having this conversation

00:28:34.680 with albertans i think you have to say this is what this could look like now we're in the pursuit

00:28:41.400 of clarity if the number changes it will change what that means for benefits and contributions

00:28:45.800 So, after the feds involved the chief actuary, any communications that you would have seen

00:28:54.720 just drove people to the engagement panel, and the numbers that you spoke of weren't

00:28:59.880 part of the advertising at that point.

00:29:02.480 Are you surprised that Albertans rejected the reports that you put forward, or appear

00:29:11.040 to reject the calculations?

00:29:13.040 well i think they want certainty they want to understand it's a it's a big number it's it's hard

00:29:19.440 to get your head around i know it was it was hard for me as well until you dive into how they come

00:29:25.020 to that conclusion um so no i i don't i think it's uh it's a challenge for for people to to think how

00:29:32.980 how could this be possible and then you you dig into the report you look at the formula you see

00:29:38.540 how Alberta's contributions have really dominated the net contributions since the early 80s through

00:29:49.620 97. I think we had 49% of the pot in 1997. So it would hold that a younger population,

00:29:59.920 more people participating in the workforce, higher earnings could make those things possible.

00:30:10.480 And then when Jim helped reform the plan in 1997 to increase contributions to build a wedge

00:30:19.100 and grow the pot, our net contributions grew a lot of investment income.

00:30:25.720 Operator, next caller, please.

00:30:27.340 Tim Burr, CTV.

00:30:31.340 Hi, thanks for taking my call.

00:30:35.340 Both of my questions are for the Minister.

00:30:39.340 First off, I mean, we know that the APP

00:30:43.340 would need 50% plus one support in a referendum

00:30:47.340 to pass. The panel finding out

00:30:51.340 half of all people, 50% of all people are saying no to this

00:30:55.340 with what most experts are calling a pretty optimistic estimation as far as asset transfers

00:31:01.040 are concerned.

00:31:02.040 My question is this, when do we say, okay, that's enough consultation, Albertans don't

00:31:07.580 want an APP, this is not a road that they want to go down?

00:31:11.340 Well, I think depending what comes out of the Chief Actuary's office, their opinion

00:31:16.280 on this, I'm sure we'll have to see if we agree with it.

00:31:22.140 think they're we will need clarity on what they've actually been asked to do by minister freeland's

00:31:27.740 office if they've been told how to interpret uh their legislation i think that will that will be

00:31:33.820 interesting um but i think if we get that number back and it changes the math uh substantially for

00:31:41.020 albertans and jim goes back and back out in the field and if people say well you know this this

00:31:48.300 this looks worse, why does it look worse?

00:31:51.640 Jim will explain it, and then we'll see.

00:31:54.660 If public opinion isn't on our side,

00:31:57.000 then it'll be pretty easy to make that decision.

00:32:04.780 My follow-up question is public opinion,

00:32:07.460 you know, quote unquote, is a pretty broad statement.

00:32:11.660 So is there a specific number here that we need to reach

00:32:15.880 before we scrap this idea and stop spending money

00:32:19.540 on advertising and public engagement and things like that?

00:32:25.800 I wouldn't want to speculate in that regard.

00:32:28.740 We see at the LifeWorks report asset withdrawal number,

00:32:33.800 we see what it means on the contribution side

00:32:36.040 and on the benefit side.

00:32:39.040 If you're asking me to give you a range

00:32:41.360 of potential numbers where I think it's favorable

00:32:45.220 for Albertans.

00:32:46.060 I don't know if I could do that

00:32:47.680 and probably wouldn't want to speculate, but.

00:32:51.220 Okay, thanks, Minister.

00:32:52.440 We'll now go to the next question on the phones.

00:32:54.380 Operator.

00:32:56.360 Chris Barco, Calgary Herald.

00:32:59.740 Hi, my first question is for Mr. Denning.

00:33:04.700 Mr. Denning, you talked about the feedback

00:33:06.620 that you've gotten and the split between Albertans

00:33:09.220 who are in favor and against it.

00:33:11.920 Can you give me an assess on what feedback

00:33:13.880 you're hearing from employers that are also involved in this conversation on the ABP proposal.

00:33:20.320 What percentage are you for, what percentage are you for, and what feedback are you getting?

00:33:23.880 Chris, we don't have a breakdown yet of employers compared to workers or other Albertans.

00:33:32.880 I can't give that number.

00:33:34.880 Okay, separate question for the finance minister.

00:33:40.880 Minister, just following up on your fiscal update last week and the economic outlook,

00:33:46.380 I'm just wondering what impact do you think that the oil prices falling below $70 this

00:33:51.800 weekend, maybe more importantly the emissions tax that the federal government announced

00:33:55.340 the details on yesterday, are going to have on industry investments next year?

00:34:00.220 No, great question, Chris.

00:34:01.940 I think oil did come back to $70 at least, it was down to $68 there, but I know you follow

00:34:06.260 closely um you i know you know the sensitivities um in our in our analysis of uh what it means for

00:34:14.740 the forecast it's about 630 million dollars for every dollar of wti uh over the course of the year

00:34:22.340 mid-year did show that we were projecting uh higher numbers in non-renewable resource revenue

00:34:27.540 about 1.3 billion that was driven largely by liquids and condensate

00:34:32.420 but yeah it's the you know opec has a meeting and and says they're going to uh have voluntary

00:34:40.300 cuts and the oil price goes down so it's a it's an interesting geopolitical time uh especially

00:34:47.360 around around the price of oil um i think uh i think there's there's some things in in alberta's

00:34:56.600 favor as well we have um oil sands operations reaching maturity i think there's three a year

00:35:02.840 over the next three years uh that will help we have tmx uh still pursuing line fill i think in

00:35:09.240 second quarter 24 which should narrow the differential uh long term uh so we have those

00:35:15.160 things in our favor but um yeah you're not you're not wrong it's uh it's very very impactful

00:35:21.000 did that answer chris was there a second part to that pardon

00:35:25.280 just from the economic standpoint for the province basically but also just for the economy broadly

00:35:34.520 whether you're thinking or whether you're hearing that the emissions cap for the falling oil prices

00:35:39.460 are going to impact capital spending rising or falling yes the emissions cap that was the other

00:35:45.160 part of your question um i met with the chief economist this week uh to go over our forecasting

00:35:51.220 and theirs um we usually do that annually at mid-year um and i kind of pose the question to

00:35:58.720 them they're very concerned about productivity in this country generally um you know i think

00:36:05.680 the emissions cap besides um being an unconstitutional effort by the feds to hinder

00:36:13.360 the economic potential of the entire country and alberta is a challenge but the economic

00:36:21.600 it was interesting getting the economists take you know i think their their take is they'd like

00:36:26.720 to see the opinion of the next federal environment minister because they think that there's going to

00:36:33.120 be change before this policy could ever be implemented and that it's it's one that would

00:36:39.040 it would be too impactful to Canada

00:36:41.200 for a serious government to pursue.

00:36:45.160 Thanks, Minister.

00:36:46.120 Operator, next caller, please.

00:36:50.600 Kevin Stabo, Settler Independence.

00:36:55.300 Okay, question for the minister.

00:36:58.920 Your government has said annually

00:37:02.440 that the Albertans will have their say

00:37:07.440 there say as far as the Alberta Pension Plan goes through a referendum. However, at every

00:37:16.960 term when asked, there has been no commitment to make it a binding referendum and I'm just

00:37:24.800 wondering why that is. Our Bill 2 references the Referendum Act,

00:37:31.920 Kevin. Only constitutional referendums are binding. I think any government that's going

00:37:42.180 to ask a question of this consequence, most definitely you should be prepared to follow

00:37:50.020 through on the wills and wishes of Albertans. But frankly, we're not even to a place where

00:37:57.120 we're committing to a referendum we're focused on the engagement and the consultation and we'll see

00:38:03.040 if this initiative has enough support to take take to a referendum or i'm sure a lot of that

00:38:09.280 can be discussed but uh we're very much focused on getting this number from the chief actuary

00:38:14.800 and uh seeing if this should should be pursued

00:38:18.080 thank you okay no follow-up um we're gonna go back to the route or operator actually is there

00:38:29.040 any more colors on the line okay we'll go back to the room for one more question

00:38:37.240 i'm just wondering when you do get a number from the chief actually what if you just agree with

00:38:44.440 are you just going to accept it or are you planning on taking any action to fight it

00:38:48.920 i it's a great it's a good question but i think it's challenging to to speculate i would like to

00:38:54.520 see the numbers see their conclusions uh see how they interpreted the the federal legislation

00:39:00.600 um i think you'd have to go through that entire process um but i i don't uh i could see i could

00:39:09.160 see places where if the federal government asked them to uh come up with a calculation that we

00:39:15.960 would say is is outside of the the way their legislation is written i could see us having a

00:39:21.880 some kind of a challenge over that um but i think it would be too early to speculate we'd have to

00:39:27.880 see what the number is but more importantly understand how they got to it we the chief

00:39:32.680 actuary's office uh is very transparent so they will publicly make public the terms of reference

00:39:40.280 we'll be able to see what they've been asked to do and i think that will give us a lot of clarity on

00:39:45.800 you know is is this opinion on this number the appropriate one and just to follow up in terms

00:39:52.520 of investment in management and uh questions about the quebec model i understand from what

00:39:56.760 you're saying you're saying you're going to leave it till virgins to sort of dictate those terms but

00:39:59.800 but you've also said that nothing with the Quebec model was really discussed and investment

00:40:03.240 management wasn't really in that LifeWorks report and that Albertans keep saying they want more

00:40:06.440 information so I'm just wondering are you planning on providing more information about different

00:40:11.560 investment models to Albertans so that they have the information to decide or how will that be

00:40:16.200 incorporated into consultation moving forward? Well as Jim's discussed it comes up kind of

00:40:21.000 organically in the in the conversations with Albertans and the panel I think what's important

00:40:27.320 to understand is for in in in our opinion what bill 2 says is that if if albertans want to pursue

00:40:34.360 that this any any withdrawals that can only be used for the setup and operation of a plan

00:40:40.360 i think any other question about um investment is is honestly one for a later date i have enough

00:40:48.680 information thanks minister and thanks everyone for joining us today that concludes our press

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Western Standard - December 09, 2023

Alberta Pension Plan engagement update

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