00:00:49.440And joining us for the pleasure of our BC election coverage is our Vancouver reporter, Alex Zoltan.
00:01:01.540All right. Well, we're going to be, of course, talking about the BC election.
00:01:06.900It's looking fairly strong, perhaps not certain, but fairly strong for the BC Conservative Party roaring back to life there.
00:01:15.540We're going to be talking about, of course, the fallout of Alberta's independence referendum and the other nine questions that were held alongside it.
00:01:27.300And, of course, what is Danielle Smith's next move?
00:01:30.940She has just released a statement to UCP members that is sure to ruffle some feathers.
00:05:16.440and declare himself the representative of the movement.0.99
00:05:19.740And there were, you know, some figures who maybe their heart was in the right place, but they did immense damage to the independence movement with the way they conducted themselves, the way they claimed to speak for the movement.
00:05:35.480And the federalist side was only too happy to point at them and say, hey, look, there is their leaders.
00:05:41.380um and and because there it was a decentralized it's not even a decentralized organization it's
00:05:49.400a decentralized movement there really was no way to for for the reasonable rational and competent
00:05:55.560people in the movement to say no that clown doesn't speak for us and and i and i think that
00:06:02.440that was immensely damaging and i know uh when you know i say yesterday but also felt like last
00:06:08.180night because i i was in the news room at 4 a.m i think you popped in at like 4 30 or 5 you know
00:06:14.060dave and nigel were there i think before 6 we're all there wild hours so it's it's a blur but you
00:06:20.600know i i i remember you cory you had you had pointed to the this and uh you know said that
00:06:28.880perhaps the movement needs some more centralization maybe the hyper decentralized model of
00:06:34.980everybody's a leader and everybody's a follower, maybe that doesn't work. If this movement is
00:06:42.220going to have any kind of future going forward, it's going to have to establish some kind of
00:06:46.680hierarchy with some kind of credibility about who speaks for it and who leads it.
00:06:53.000Absolutely. I mean, and whether that comes in the form of a party, which is I think a lot of people
00:06:57.400could be really dangerous in the political landscape in Alberta, or at least one kind of
00:07:03.480dominant advocacy group that had a mechanism i mean for example the alberta prosperity project
00:07:08.760they've done a lot of work and they were definitely the largest kid on the block for
00:07:12.200the first part of the whole independence for a while and a while they to my knowledge never
00:07:17.320really had and as you said a hierarchy or an elected structure even among them it was just
00:07:21.640kind of people who suddenly popped up and were the spokespeople for it they weren't necessarily
00:07:25.720selected by members there was no uh uh you know accreditation or affirmation by people as to
00:07:31.640whether those were the spokespeople for the movement. And as it dispersed, it led to the
00:07:37.100problems we see, particularly coming into a campaign period. So if we get into another time
00:07:41.640like that, I think we need one organization, at least some sort of mechanism to put spokespeople,
00:07:48.740maybe they still could be a bit decentralized, but they have to have some degree of having been
00:07:53.700selected by the larger group to speak for it. So if you do get things coming off on the fringe,
00:07:58.380you can point out, well, that's just, that's over there.
00:08:00.800This is the people speaking generally for the movement here
00:08:03.020because it was really difficult to try and campaign
00:08:05.980when we get different voices from different directions.
00:12:15.400But that would have been harder to do, as you said, because there wouldn't have been
00:12:20.100those nine outs for people to get away from that send a message it's difficult to tell how people
00:12:25.020would go on things but some might have framed it effectively at that time as I said to be
00:12:29.920almost a binding vote if that's the question all by itself I these are the things we should dwell
00:12:35.240on see what would be more effective in the future and the other thing to follow on that Corey is
00:12:39.780kind of what the message is a reader pointed out to me this morning in a in private correspondence
00:12:47.200There's a lot of people who are pro-independence, who also have guns, who also are deeply skeptical of the way things were handled during the COVID crisis.
00:12:59.020And there's this sort of overlay of distrust in the federal government and any provincial government that is going to try and play ball too seriously with the federal government.
00:13:12.540There's sort of a groupthink there, and it's probably larger than 25%.
00:13:19.440So what actually is the message we're trying to send is don't mess with Albertans.
00:13:50.660Well, let's turn this conversation towards where the movement is going next.
00:13:58.660Alberta Premier Danielle Smith put out a video statement to members of her party today.
00:14:08.260And the synopsis, you know, to paraphrase it, you know, I'd say she, you know, she said, OK, guys, it's over and we can all be one big happy family.
00:14:22.000We're not going to purge people who supported independence.
00:14:27.340But she she hasn't quite totally repudiated Jason Kenney's call for purging independent supporters.
00:14:34.900um i guess we could read this a few different ways depends how charitably
00:14:39.740charitable you want to be and what perspective you're coming from and how you view it
00:14:43.080but she was saying that this is not going to be an independence party this is a party that's going
00:14:48.900to be a provincial sovereigntist more or less you know it'll stand for more jurisdiction it'll
00:14:55.760stand for alberta provincial rights and that kind of thing but it's not going to be an independence
00:15:00.260party and if you can't accommodate yourself to it not being an independence party uh then you
00:15:05.680should join a different party she didn't necessarily say we're going to kick you out
00:15:09.240but there was some implications that there may be purity tests applied uh i mean it was just
00:15:15.100yesterday or day before that uh the one mla who openly supported uh the option two in the
00:15:20.540independence referendum jay stefan he announced he's not running again that might be an indication
00:15:25.120of things to come um so but over half of ucp voters voted for independence here and probably
00:15:35.460well over half of ucp members uh actively supported it this is potentially playing with
00:15:43.980fire nigel but at the at the same time you know you've got a certain self-appointed leaders in
00:15:50.860the independence movement calling for her head they've declared war on her first not her on them
00:15:55.300um and at the same time she has a year from now almost to the date uh she has to face voters in
00:16:02.400a general election the majority of which independent supporters have to admit are not
00:16:08.320yet backing independence and they're not going to vote for a party that's explicitly pro-independence
00:16:12.600at this time so uh first of all to go back to her statement to the entire province last night
00:16:20.180I thought that that speech was measured and conciliatory to the people who are most likely to be offended by the very fact that she took a Federalist position.
00:16:31.480I don't think there's really much that she could have said that she should have said that wasn't in the speech.
00:16:38.780So, looking at whether she should have had more to say to Mr. Kenney this morning,
00:16:46.920Again, there are people who still believe in Mr. Kenney, who she wants to vote for her in October of next year.
00:16:56.160This, it would not have been a good time for her to go out and make strong statements alienating people who, in a year's time, might have settled down a little bit and be prepared to look at her and say,
00:17:10.660well, there's things about Danielle Smith's leadership
00:17:14.880that I did not like, but I certainly do not want the NDP.
00:22:10.640and I guess you've got to be careful on how much you want to inflame them.
00:22:14.580I think there'll be safety in numbers at the AGM, for example.
00:22:16.900As I said, leadership isn't on the table.
00:22:18.500There might be some hecklers and things,
00:22:19.940but when you have 7,000 people and it's not on the agenda,
00:22:23.000I don't think they're going to accomplish too, too much,
00:22:25.100except for maybe the odd time taking an open mic,
00:22:27.020as we saw in Edmonton and kind of disrupting some things.
00:22:29.880But if they're really feeling alienated,
00:22:31.700there's two risks I think she's taking.
00:22:34.880One is that they go out the door and start another party,
00:22:37.780which in that period of time and looking at the people who would probably be leading it,
00:22:43.380I don't think it would be one that would be taking a bunch of seats,
00:22:45.680but in areas like Edmonton and Calgary, if you look at the math,
00:22:48.100if they take 5%, 10%, it'll be plenty to change the entire political landscape.
00:22:52.920Or the other part is if they focus on those constituencies to push things into a leadership race.
00:22:58.640We've got to remember that's a surgical approach rather than going at the AGM to try and move 7,000 people.
00:23:04.680That's taking over constituency boards that often actually only have 12 or 20 or 30 active people on them.
00:23:10.460That's how Jason Kenney exposed his flank and ended up facing a leadership review early in his term.
00:23:17.500That could potentially happen to Premier Smith.
00:23:20.000It's a lot harder to shore up 87 little organizations than it is a party as a whole.
00:23:25.780So I know polling-wise, I think she knows that, again, three-quarters of Albertans said they aren't ready to entertain that right now.
00:23:31.860she doesn't want to go into a general election with that constantly hanging over her head.
00:23:35.700She wants to turn the page so she can focus on other policy items. It makes sense.
00:23:40.020But at the same time, if she turns this into a big battle that her opponents would love to see0.95
00:23:44.520inflamed further, it will keep the independence issue on the table for the next six months or a0.94
00:23:48.740year and could really cause some headaches. She's in a terribly tough spot, but I think she might0.51
00:23:53.000be overcorrecting a bit when she's looking at the purge of those members. I mean, she should still
00:23:57.880say, you know, be welcoming within the party, but just saying it's not on the policy agenda right
00:24:01.820now, but you're still with us. Please be with us. Trying to invite people kind of towards the door.
00:24:06.400I think it'd be dangerous. You know, I, I have a strong sense that everybody doesn't want to talk
00:24:12.340about this anymore. People are pretty tired. People are tired of the whole thing and she is
00:24:19.200probably going to be safe with that audience who just want to turn the page on it until, I mean,
00:24:26.080there are some folks who will never give up, and that's their right. But the general population
00:24:33.940has had enough. We've had the vote. We know what it was. We know what the implications are.
00:24:39.960And Smith is probably on sound stage here if she is saying, look, guys, we're done with this for
00:24:47.660a while. Not forever, maybe, but not on my watch. Let's talk about other things.
00:24:52.440Okay, well, that's probably sound logic if we're talking the entire public. Three quarters voted for Remain. Two thirds of that, though, is roughly NDP supporters. Only one third of that is UCP supporters at most.
00:25:10.480Over half of UCP voters voted for independence,
00:25:13.460and that number is a lot higher among the members.
00:25:17.980of how conservatives tend to lose power in Alberta.
00:25:21.040It's not normally in general elections.
00:25:23.920It's internal revolt, and normally from the populist right.
00:25:29.060And she, you know, so I do think most Albertans
00:25:32.020don't want to talk about this right now.
00:25:33.800Probably even a majority of people who voted for independence
00:25:36.160are happy to, maybe not happy to, but content to,
00:25:39.680Let this lay for a while and think about where things are going to go.
00:25:43.940But within the party, this is an active and motivated and aggressive cohort.
00:25:50.240The cohort is probably the wrong term.
00:25:52.240It's probably a majority of the kind of people who are going to show up to party conventions here.
00:25:57.380I think she's exposed a flank that while this might be the safest and probably correct political position for her to take with the general public, it's not with party members.
00:26:09.680And they might decide, well, we're under no obligation to show ourselves the door.
00:26:29.280I mean, we're going to see soon enough, I suppose.
00:26:31.320But when I look at her choices, it's hard to make a strong case that she should have done something very different from just saying to the general membership, look, it's all forgiven.
00:26:45.240If you were in favor of separation, that's fine.
00:26:53.060But just let's talk about something else.
00:26:54.920So if you've got diehards who are prepared to keep the thing boiling, well, I'm not sure what I would advise for those people.
00:27:05.100Do you want to be run by them or do you want to at least appeal to the rest of the party which is ready to talk about other things like pipelines and how to get them, whether Mr. Carney is really on our side or not?0.89
00:30:28.600I was going to say you've also got the new Green Party mayor of Vancouver who has come out in support of the Green Party leader.
00:30:37.820that's right and it's really interesting the municipal elections happening right before
00:30:42.060the provincial elections it would behoove me to try to speculate on what maps over
00:30:48.140or if voters are signaling their vote intention with the provincial election with the decisions
00:30:53.500they made in the civic election but i have seen some speculation that i think holds some water
00:30:59.020that vancouver voters because civic voters tend to be a little bit older and a little
00:31:03.980little bit more politically sophisticated, that they may have been hedging their bets
00:31:07.380and voting for a more progressive Vancouver mayor in anticipation of also voting for and getting
00:31:14.100a conservative provincial government. But then in Surrey, of course, it went the other way,
00:31:18.520where they picked a familiar face in Doug Callum. So it's really hard to say, you know,
00:31:23.160if people are voting strategically in both elections, or if it's, you know, just a matter
00:31:28.220of coincidence. So Alex, if you're inclined to vote for a conservative candidate and you have
00:31:33.9201BC and you have the BC Conservatives, what are the things that are going to help you make your
00:31:39.080mind up? Which? Well, I know with a lot of thinly loyalists, which is what I would call them,
00:31:47.200and that would be individuals who are loyal to the now ex-leader of the BC Conservative Party,
00:31:51.940they're probably going to vote for the 1BC candidate regardless of who they are.
00:31:55.340But most individuals who are right of center, in my opinion, would be wise to pick the BC Conservatives because one BC's likelihood of governing is zero. And the likelihood of them winning any individual seat is also fairly low. Even in Dallas Brody's seat in Vancouver, Kilchenna, I don't foresee her getting reelected.
00:32:15.660So, how's the party been doing? I mean, it's interesting to see how unity can come from necessity though, right? Like this was kind of mashed together. I mean, everything was in disarray. There was factions bouncing all over and people, and it was quite remarkable. I think quite a good accomplishment to manage to pull it together and into a cohesive party going into an election.
00:32:38.200But they are going in, held together with bailing, twine, necessity, and prayers.
00:32:43.440Obviously, it looks like they'll make it to Saturday without exploding.
00:32:46.680But do you think this party is going to be able to sustain after the election?
00:32:50.900You know, I know I'm asking you to look ahead, but I mean, it also depends on whether they win or lose.
00:32:55.060But they've had an interim leader. He's done very, very well.
00:32:58.000But still, he would have to face a leadership review or race at some point and things like that.
00:33:03.140Are they just keeping the heads down campaigning right now and not talking about such things?
00:33:07.140Yeah, I think that's the question of all questions, because it really is the same caucus that was exploding only a couple of months ago.
00:33:14.820And a week feels like a lifetime in B.C. politics right now, so it's easy to forget that.
00:33:19.440But for those of us who are paying very close attention, it's also hard to forget that.
00:33:25.360And I don't think that it is beyond the bounds of believability that this party could implode, even if it's in a position of being in government.
00:33:33.260um in my opinion it seems like if you go back looking not only to the finley leadership but
00:33:39.340also to the rustad leadership before it this party has a significant unity problem and some
00:33:45.800individuals within the party i won't name names but it seems like they they maybe have difficulty
00:33:49.880playing well with others and then you also have the ideological issues not entirely unlike the
00:33:55.400ones you just described with the ucp obviously it's not over the the issue of independence
00:34:01.300But on specific social issues and political wedge issues, there's still a lack of unity amongst the BC Conservatives.
00:34:10.460And I think that that's a case with Canadian Conservatives pretty much everywhere, but especially pronounced with this group.
00:34:17.720Alex, is it just me or is David Eby looking glummer by the day?
00:34:52.940Yeah, it's honestly kind of hilarious. I mean, the Wainwright thing is obviously a horrific tragedy, but every single step that Evie has taken has been a self-goal, as they like to say.
00:35:07.120My favorite one was the one at the beginning when he used the firebreak analogy to describe his justification for the whole election, which was we're building a firebreak against Donald Trump.
00:35:17.460And then it turned out that Lauren Dirksen actually put out fires in firebreaks.
00:42:24.880While people are struggling, as Alex said, with affordability and we're worried about our youth finding housing and being able to afford down payment,
00:42:30.620Mark Carney has taken $8 million of our tax dollars and given it to the Dominican Republic for housing.