00:02:01.640Well, we won't know the answer to that question for the next four months, 12 months, maybe 24 months,
00:02:07.540But I had hoped for a higher number of support for B, but I wasn't surprised by the result.
00:02:16.440But I think the important takeaway here, one of the important takeaways is that 25% of voting to move to the next stage, separation, another referendum, that's double what it would have been a decade ago.
00:02:30.800And if the next decade is a repeat of the past decade by the referendum that will be held in 2036, that's 50% or 50% plus one, then that's a problem.
00:02:48.900So I think that's an important takeaway.
00:02:52.700And I hope that message gets to Ottawa and business and political leaders in the other provinces.
00:03:00.800So I think you're saying that this is by no means over.
00:03:47.180Is this going to be a whole new relationship where energy security trumps climate change and changes what we've experienced for the last decade?
00:03:58.920Or is this just a temporary thing within, you know, if the price of oil goes back to $70 or $80 or suddenly are all of these commitments, all of the talk, all of the Carney talk, is it just going to dissolve?
00:04:16.700Because, as I'm sure you know, and I think most people listening know, all the people that who are committed climate change activists are opposed to everything Carney is doing right now.
00:04:28.780And that's an important part of the Liberal Party coalition.
00:04:32.480So is Carney bigger than the Liberal Party or is the Liberal Party bigger than Carney?
00:04:36.900It's going to take we'll see in the next four, eight, 12 months.
00:04:40.360you know the talk of the energy superpower takes me back to the days of stephen harper when that
00:04:47.200was very much the conservative line the difference is that today it seems to be led or if it happens
00:04:54.460it's going to be led by the carny government as opposed to the industry itself uh what do you
00:05:02.420make of that on the is that an intentional thing do you suppose on part of this government
00:05:09.300to try and aggregate power to the middle?
00:05:12.320Or is it just kind of what falls out of a rather tumbling political situation
00:05:19.700that includes Alberta's concerns over the future as well?
00:05:25.180Yeah, well, again, I don't know the answer to that question.
00:05:28.140We're going to see it in the next four, eight, or 12 months.
00:05:31.220But clearly, for these pipeline proposals and initiatives to work,
00:05:37.160There has to be significant private sector participation, in other words, financial commitments.
00:05:44.400And that's not going to happen without certainty.
00:06:02.520There's been fiscal flight going on for the last decade.
00:06:05.200$100 billion worth during the decade of Justin Trudeau, what I call NEP 2.0.
00:06:14.300And so, again, is Carney going to, is he committed to this?
00:06:23.040Is it not just political talk, but actually as an economist, has he linked on to this?
00:06:30.060The energy security issue, it's obviously exacerbated now because of the ridiculous things that Trump has done in the Middle East with the closing of Straits of Hormuz and the Red Sea and all of that.
00:06:42.900But believe me, for people that pay attention to strategic military concerns and strategic fiscal global concerns, energy security has always been more important than climate change.
00:06:55.380So, again, we'll see what choices Cardi makes and what choices the Liberal Party makes in the coming months and years.
00:07:07.720So, Ted, let's just go back to the results of the referendum for a moment.
00:07:12.640We've got this 25% of Albertans who basically said they want to leave Canada.
00:07:19.980Now, there's not an exact overlay here, but I noticed that in that 25%, there would probably be a very high correlation of people who were resistant to the COVID regime five years ago, were deeply suspicious of vaccines.
00:07:43.740Some probably refused to take them and lost their jobs as a result.
00:07:49.980So there's a certain memory of bitterness there.
00:07:53.580I would say there's probably a strong correlation of legal gun ownership
00:07:59.420with people who also said they wanted to leave Canada.
00:08:06.900There's a whole kind of mindset there that just is not simpatico
00:08:14.460with the way the central government chooses to govern and to operate.
00:08:19.980They're freedom lovers. Now, you drew attention to me earlier that although only 25% voted to go, more than twice that voted for constitutional reforms that would play very well to people who were resistant to the government line on COVID and on so many other things.
00:08:46.320In fact, in some of the key results, it was nearly two-thirds.
00:08:52.740And I'm inclined to think that those numbers are understood.
00:09:11.860So my thought is that there is also a group of people who may not actually want to leave Canada, but have very serious concerns about the way Canada is governed.
00:09:27.780Absolutely. I think, in a way, Premier Smith got what she wanted, a no vote on leaving or a referendum on another referendum, but a yes vote on most of the immigration questions and the constitutional reforms.
00:09:46.300And the fact that almost a third of the people that voted against leaving turned around and voted for the reforms, I think, shows that there's a path down the middle.
00:09:57.420You know, not the status quo, not separation, but something down the middle, which I know a number of people have criticized me for calling it Beach 2.0.
00:10:09.340that's my dog calling me saying uh it's time to go uh time to go hunting but i'll tell the dog to
00:10:18.240wait well the viewer the viewer should appreciate that you are in fact donating generously your
00:10:24.020hunting time to this interview and so thank you for that but anyway uh i don't know what you did
00:10:30.680with that device but the dog certainly would be quieting down right away uh don't even want to
00:10:37.180know anyway um i'm sure you uh what did you so but back to your point i think this is an important
00:10:45.840takeaway that of the 75 percent that voted against uh separation uh a third of them turned around
00:10:54.620and supported it and pushed the support for the questions uh yes whether it's five through nine
00:12:47.020their spouses or partners. So I think that's there. I don't think that's fatal.
00:12:54.740And how to explain it, I'm going to pass on that.
00:13:00.020Well, you know, the stereotype that I'm actually describing has an unquestioning loyalty to the
00:13:06.980idea of Canada, which is good, I guess. But when you point out the real issues,
00:13:12.560they tend to shrug them off as less important than national unity so if three people out of
00:13:20.120four don't even think about it maybe the rest are just wasting their breath i mean is there
00:13:26.520a future for separatism well is there a future for reform normal people in other words people
00:13:32.860not like you and me and probably not like the majority of people that are listening tonight
00:13:38.180Normal people are so busy with their kids, their jobs, their car loans, their mortgages, what's going on in the neighborhood, hockey, soccer.
00:13:49.220They don't have time. They don't have time to worry about policy or constitutional reform.
00:13:56.120So what you're describing is actually pretty normal.0.92
00:13:59.060And I would point out that almost all reform movements in any democracy, not just Canada, anywhere, start off as minorities.0.87
00:14:09.040The best example would be in the U.S. would be the abolitionists, the abolished slavery people.0.78
00:14:14.760You know, they worked from 1800 to 1860.
00:14:17.480They were considered a troublemaking minority by the majority.
00:14:21.2801860, suddenly a new party, a new coalition, the Republican Party, Abraham Lincoln becomes president.
00:14:26.980And that sometimes, but it all starts off as a minority.
00:14:32.340The suffrage movement, the women's vote movement in Canada and the U.S.
00:14:35.660started off as very much a minority movement.
00:14:38.260So, yes, that is the nature of reform movements, and some succeed and some don't.
00:14:47.300I would like to be optimistic to think that our logic, the facts,
00:14:53.660The things that people like you and I and probably a lot of the people listening tonight, the truth, the facts are on our side.
00:15:02.260And again, what's going to happen in the next 12 months, two years, five years?
00:15:12.380Is it going to be a repeat of the last decade?
00:15:15.700If it is, then I think the support is going to, as I said, it's going to go up not 25 percent to 50 percent.
00:15:21.560And if it turns out that Carney succeeds in remaking the Liberal Party's relationship with energy and the West, then I'd say a lot of what we've been fighting for will have won.
00:15:38.380Now, you said if Mr. Carney succeeds in rebuilding the relationship of the Liberal Party with energy and the West, do you actually think that he wants to do that?
00:15:51.560Or is this a carefully stage-managed project?
00:15:59.520And, of course, like many important questions, I don't know the answer.
00:16:03.260But if you look at the climate change activist groups
00:16:12.300and a lot of the media that comes certainly out of B.C.,
00:16:16.260Everybody that supported the anti-oil and gas, anti-Alberta policies during the Justin Trudeau decade are very much opposed to everything that Carney's proposing to do.
00:16:29.700There's the three new pipelines and all of that. So which way are Carney and the liberals going to go?
00:16:36.760Are they going to make a new coalition that does not include those climate change activists, the anti-pipeline activists, or not?
00:16:49.480I certainly hope that they, you know, I guess, will those people migrate over?
00:16:55.900Is the NDP going to become the climate change party?
00:16:59.940interesting, because then that would begin to split the left of center vote instead of
00:17:07.720the right of center vote being split. But we'll see.
00:17:12.360Well, I think it's well known that you and Premier Smith know each other quite well and
00:17:16.100see things in much the same way most of the time. Now, you've both been publicly opposed
00:17:22.180to independence, and the Premier has welcomed the Remain result. Do you welcome it?
00:17:27.520well yes and no i said i hoped it would be higher uh but i think 25 is still significant
00:17:34.840uh i think you know she she got what she wanted she got a a no vote on question 10 and uh majority
00:17:43.640support for uh most or almost all of the other nine questions so i think she could go forward
00:18:00.180One, continuing to work closely with Carney
00:18:03.680and the people around Carney to keep their focus
00:18:06.540on moving these pipelines to the next stage.
00:18:09.440There's the announcement on the Pacific Lake.
00:18:14.540The next deadline is September 1st next year, 2027.
00:18:19.840If that happens, then she'll be in a good position going into the fall election here in Alberta.
00:18:27.500But the other thing that is less visible and less politically relevant, I guess, in terms of elections, but just as important, is working with other premiers, as she's been doing, but continuing that, certainly potential ally in Ontario.
00:18:45.300You know, we'll have to see with the new separatist government in Quebec, but that their leader, how do you pronounce his name?
00:18:57.120He came out to Quebec. He came to Alberta before the election and talked about overlaps between what the PQ wants and what Alberta, what Albert, at least a portion of Albertans want.
00:19:10.680But I think, again, the key is it can't just be about what Alberta wants.
00:19:17.500It has to be what building, again, what I've called kind of the Meach Lake Coalition.
00:19:25.320You compared some of the constitutional questions in the referendum to Meach Lake.
00:19:29.380That's part of what you were writing about.
00:19:31.080And you talked about working with other provinces.
00:19:33.060With the separation option now clearly on the back burner, at least in the eyes of the general public, is the realistic third way still a package of reforms that Ontario and Quebec might actually accept?
00:19:48.280Or has the decisive remain result taken the pressure off so completely that Alberta is back to one-sided pleading?
00:19:55.840Well, possibly, but that's why I emphasized for Premier Smith, not just the relationship with Carney and the feds, but with the other provinces.
00:20:09.800The whole liberal approach to national unity used to be about Quebec separatism.
00:20:20.220now, it's not just Quebec, Alberta, is we're going to solve this problem through centralization,
00:20:27.760stronger and stronger central government.
00:20:30.880And they did that by basically buying, well, a number of ways they did it.
00:20:36.300One was buying their way into areas of provincial jurisdiction, health, education, social programs