Western Standard - Alberta’s First Quarter Fiscal Update for 2024-25

00:00:00.000 Thank you.

00:00:30.000 Good morning, everyone. Today, I'm pleased to present the Government of Alberta's 2024-2025

00:00:43.600 first quarter fiscal update and economic statement. Earlier this year, when our government presented

00:00:49.360 budget 2024, we forecast a modest $351 million surplus. Today, our first quarter report shows

00:00:57.600 a 2.6 billion dollar increase in that projection with a forecast surplus of 2.9 billion for this

00:01:04.080 fiscal year we've benefited from higher oil prices a narrower light heavy differential

00:01:10.320 as the tmx pipeline is getting our oil to the coast and out to the global market

00:01:15.760 but while our surplus may be higher than we estimated a budget that is an accounting surplus

00:01:21.440 what's the difference between that and a cash surplus well there are streams of government

00:01:25.600 revenue that aren't accessible for operational spending this includes things such as university

00:01:31.200 tuition which is collected by our post-secondaries to fund their operations another example is the

00:01:36.800 income from the heritage fund most of which was previously deposited in general revenue

00:01:42.320 under our new fiscal framework all of the income is left to the fund to continue to grow and

00:01:47.440 generate prosperity for albertans in the future after adjustments and calculations we forecast

00:01:53.520 we will be left with no surplus cash at the end of 24 25 and are in fact forecasting to

00:01:59.600 take on additional borrowing and that means we must be even more measured and responsible

00:02:04.400 when making budgetary decisions we must make sure funding can be sustained as we grow

00:02:10.080 so that we can keep communities safe during wildfires and other natural disasters so that

00:02:14.960 we can invest in the programs and services albertans rely on and so that our kids and

00:02:20.160 grandkids also experience the alberta advantage in the future we can't spend beyond our means today

00:02:26.480 we must manage debt and save for a better tomorrow which will help us continue to provide albertans

00:02:32.240 the services and programs they need as well as act as responsible stewards of your hard-earned

00:02:37.920 tax dollars this is vital to keep alberta's economy strong and public services sustainable

00:02:43.840 this year's budget contains the largest ever health and education spending in alberta history

00:02:48.560 we are well positioned to be the economic engine of canada energy continues to fuel that engine

00:02:56.240 with the tmx adding capacity and supporting growth and production investment and exports

00:03:02.820 we've upped our forecast for west texas intermediate to 76 50 us per barrel this

00:03:09.400 fiscal year and are getting more for our crude industrial investment is solid with a number of

00:03:16.060 big projects now underway, including Dow Chemical, McCain's Potato Processing Plant, Air Products

00:03:23.660 Hydrogen Complex, and Imperial Oils Renewable Diesel Facility. We anticipate our population

00:03:29.880 to grow at a record pace of 4.6% in 2024, up significantly from budget and also higher

00:03:37.800 than last year. Our population is seeing strong growth, but as I've said before, this growth

00:03:44.640 brings challenges we must be prepared to face we need to make our provincial budget work for

00:03:49.840 everyone to make sure public services meet the needs of our growing population we must help

00:03:55.760 albertans and communities affected by ongoing drought condition conditions wildfires and other

00:04:01.600 emergencies collective bargaining negotiations are underway with thousands of public sector workers

00:04:07.840 including teachers and nurses and we've promised to cut personal income taxes to save albertans

00:04:13.200 1.4 billion each year more on that in a moment this is why strong fiscal management is so

00:04:20.960 important so that we can continue to deliver top quality public programs and services now

00:04:27.040 and in the future without breaking the bank our first quarter fiscal results show a responsible

00:04:33.200 path forward our revenue forecast for 24 25 has increased to 76.2 billion a 2.7 billion dollar

00:04:41.520 improvement driven by personal income taxes and non-renewable resource revenue population and

00:04:48.160 employment gains have driven up personal income tax revenue by 458 million from budget and resource

00:04:55.200 revenue is up two and a half billion from budget to 19.8 billion because of higher than expected

00:05:01.280 oil prices our resource revenues are also benefiting from a steady narrowing of the light

00:05:07.120 heavy differential as our heavy crude gains access to global markets now that the tmx pipeline is

00:05:13.280 online a one dollar change in the light heavy differential can impact alberta's budget by

00:05:18.960 upwards of 600 million the light heavy differential forecast dropped to 1440 this quarter compared to

00:05:26.720 16 dollars at budget that alone equates to almost 1 billion dollars more this is all positive for

00:05:33.600 the alberto economy but we can't just depend on volatile oil prices to balance the budget

00:05:38.960 we must make careful spending choices that ensure our economy remains strong our expense forecast

00:05:45.360 has remained relatively stable at first quarter expense for the year is now forecast at 73.3

00:05:51.520 billion an increase of 101 million from budget offset by dedicated revenue as of mid-august

00:05:59.680 we've committed 573 million to disaster and emergency response this includes wildfire

00:06:06.240 fighting costs emergency evacuation payments and matching donations made to the canadian red cross

00:06:13.040 we also committed 125 million more to help schools with enrollment growth and inflation pressures

00:06:19.520 and capital dollars are up as projects delayed from last year are scheduled to move forward

00:06:24.480 As a result, we have $1.4 billion left in our contingency.

00:06:30.340 Our fiscal rules limit in-year spending increases to the contingency, with some exceptions.

00:06:36.120 I'm pleased the surplus has driven down our debt service and costs from budget.

00:06:41.000 We remain steadfast in our promise to strengthen the health care system and provide access to top quality education.

00:06:49.040 and we're working on bringing in the personal income tax cut hopefully by the next budget so

00:06:53.920 albertans can keep more in their pockets each year right now we're working hard on the budget

00:06:58.720 to make that possible and we'll have more to say on that in the coming weeks we will continue to

00:07:04.240 protect communities and families facing wildfires and emergencies and we will chart a chart a path

00:07:10.880 to grow our heritage fund into a legacy that will support the economy and alberta i'll be the first

00:07:17.120 to say this won't be easy with a responsible plan we can keep our economy resilient and make sure

00:07:23.120 the next generations don't carry the burden of today our engine can keep humming and albertans

00:07:28.560 can continue to reap the benefits uh thank you i'd be happy to take questions sorry

00:07:37.440 thank you everyone we're going to move to our q a right now we're going to start in the room and

00:07:41.200 then we're going to move to the phones as you ask your questions please identify your name

00:07:45.360 and your outlet who you're with and we'll go with one question one follow-up go ahead carrie uh

00:07:49.600 carrie tate with the gloom and bill excuse my clock minister you attended hockey games with

00:07:54.480 mh care samrish i'm wondering which games you went to and how many uh i did i did attend two

00:08:01.840 uh oilers games uh with mh care uh i went to a game in the first round and a game in the third

00:08:09.040 i don't have the exact dates uh on me but uh it's uh was all within the the rules and will be

00:08:17.360 disclosed on my ethics commissioner statement you follow yep uh thank you thank you very much for

00:08:22.640 answering that minister um it's been tricky getting ministers to answer that question

00:08:28.080 we can't get answers out of the premier's office it will never be public what games staff went to

00:08:34.880 under the current rules do you think that the current rules need to be revised uh the rules

00:08:43.280 were just revised i can't speculate on but do you believe the current version of these rules

00:08:48.400 is adequate now that we've in retrospect after um the past couple months and seeing the resistance

00:08:54.880 from this government to disclose who went to games and who hosted do you think those rules

00:08:59.600 are serving albertans does this feel like resistance yes i've been trying to get a hold

00:09:04.400 of you for two months you hung up on me once minister i've been trying to get a hold of you

00:09:08.960 i've been emailing you we've reached out repeatedly to the premier's office without

00:09:13.600 answer do you believe are you comfortable with the current version of these rules guarding your

00:09:19.600 conflicts of interest yes thank you kerry next question michelle um minister following up on

00:09:26.640 that what members of your staff attended those games uh none that i'm aware of can you tell can

00:09:34.560 you tell us at those games were there staff members in the premier's office like who was

00:09:39.680 there besides you i can't comment folks i know as the premier said every minister is responsible for

00:09:45.600 themselves and they have to make sure that they're uh disclosing with through the ethics commissioner

00:09:50.800 which i have done and will do and why can't why can't you why can't you if you guys did nothing

00:09:56.480 wrong then why can't you tell us did do nothing wrong that's why i just told you no but we're

00:10:02.720 asking you who else was there at those games and then you're telling us that it's up to individual

00:10:08.160 ministers to tell us that if you did nothing wrong and if these guys did nothing wrong i think that

00:10:13.040 we would be hearing more about this so so can you tell us who was in the room with you who was in

00:10:17.520 that that box with you with those games i can only speak speak for myself miss bellefontaine

00:10:23.520 i was invited to go to the game went uh cheered on the oilers and uh it'll be on my ethics

00:10:31.200 disclosure thank you next question right hi sean i'm out of city news the premier has indicated

00:10:36.080 that the alberta sheriffs are to have a larger role in policing perhaps becoming the provincial

00:10:40.720 police force as a senior cabinet member what do you think about that well i think uh you know

00:10:47.200 public safety minister has uh has made clear that he thinks the sheriffs can play a bigger role

00:10:53.760 i think they see them as as filling gaps that that exist um on the landscape currently um what that

00:11:00.320 becomes i think it's uh kind of a wait and see you know i i have many rural communities that are

00:11:06.640 are served uh served by the rcmp but there's certainly you know gaps i think we we hear that

00:11:12.880 we hear that from municipalities that have taken the minister up on his his grant to um you know

00:11:19.360 explore what their what their needs are so i think it'll organically maybe show us that there's gaps

00:11:28.400 that need to be filled but no decisions have been made that i'm aware of yeah so a report

00:11:34.880 for government found that it's going to cost a lot more money to go with an alberta provincial police

00:11:39.600 over the rcmp um what impact will going with the sheriffs have on on our budget and if it does cost

00:11:47.680 more why is that valuable for albertans i'd have to see that it that it would i know right now we

00:11:54.000 have a large contract it is our authority that's delegated through the rcmp contract but i know

00:11:59.040 they're having a hard time and there's a shortage of officers on the ground so i think it you'd

00:12:04.240 really need to see an apples to apples comparison to to make that claim one more on the floor we'll

00:12:09.200 go to the phones go ahead lisa johnson canadian press minister you said you're you're happy with

00:12:14.240 the conflict of interest rules as they are you think they're adequate can you explain to albertans

00:12:19.520 why you think staff members should be able to accept gifts um including potentially from somebody

00:12:26.080 who's involved with government contracts multi-million dollar government contracts

00:12:29.920 why should those not be disclosed those gifts disclosed to albertans well i i would just say

00:12:36.720 i think the the premier some of the the motivation behind changing it was so that she could be staffed

00:12:42.400 at events because under the the prior iteration of the rules she had a hard time actually getting

00:12:48.480 into events and being staffed it wouldn't be reasonable to for her to attend event where

00:12:53.360 she couldn't have staff with her so that was some of the motivation to change the rules

00:12:59.440 i hope that answers your question well if it's perfectly reasonable for staff to attend with

00:13:04.400 ministers and with the premier to these events if it's important that you guys attend these events

00:13:09.680 why not just disclose why not disclose it like that's the ultimate question that i i don't

00:13:14.320 understand why the reason what the reasoning is by not disclosing that if there's nothing wrong

00:13:20.560 with it why not disclose it proactively well it's a conversation that i guess we're having here if

00:13:26.320 there's more changes need to be made i'm sure they'll take that into consideration thank you

00:13:30.240 we'll go to the phone you're the senior captain we'll come back to the to the floor after some

00:13:34.720 questions from the phone operator can you please put through our first call

00:13:39.440 sean polzer with western standard hi um i was wondering if you could speak to um

00:13:46.880 revenues from uh the carbon tax industrial carbon tax and the tier fund how much uh is going into it

00:13:54.480 and how it's going to be affected going forward when some of these increases annual increases

00:14:00.480 come into play uh it's it's complicated i guess i would say we do know that our tier uh forecast

00:14:08.880 has come down um recently by about 180 million dollars um it's probably a question that energy

00:14:16.320 minister would answer answer better than me but um important to remember that this is something that

00:14:21.600 they pay for compliance so it's it's not a direct correlation to the changes you see here in in

00:14:29.760 revenues do you have a follow-up yeah um there was a note in the briefing this morning about

00:14:37.120 a number of oil plants that are coming into uh full uh pale position i believe there's two of

00:14:43.280 them this year one next year and one the year after um what kind of impact does that have on

00:14:49.200 the resource revenues and in terms of the additional royalties that they're going to be paying

00:14:55.280 uh it it can make a dramatic impact yeah i believe your numbers are correct we have about two

00:15:00.640 two a year maybe three three in the out year and we're at over 80 percent uh in full payout now

00:15:08.000 and that's why you've seen the sensitivity change as much as it has we've gone from somewhere in

00:15:13.280 the range of 250 million per dollar wti to 630 million so it's having having that impact now and

00:15:19.920 that will continue to grow okay we currently don't have any other in the queue go ahead chalene

00:15:24.240 um we heard this morning that the uti averaged about 80 a barrel so far this year um given that

00:15:29.520 when can alberts expect any relief in gas prices and then just adding on to that on the weekend

00:15:33.120 radio show the premier said that that would cut into her plan to deliver the personal income tax

00:15:37.120 relief which you mentioned would be coming in the budget so basically is the plan to abandon

00:15:40.640 any gas tax relief so that you can push that personal income tax cut out sooner the gas tax

00:15:45.280 relief will be there when the formula tells us it is i guess i know we've been through this in the

00:15:51.600 past but that that is the average of the days in the first quarter it's it's complicated but you

00:15:58.240 need two weeks to inform the retailers that's why the formula is legislated as it is so there's 20

00:16:04.160 trading days kind of in the middle of the quarter um so for this year for example you'd have

00:16:12.000 july august and september so we would be in the monitoring phase right now and if it were to

00:16:18.160 trigger over 80 the relief would be automatic and in terms of the 1.4 billion in the contingency

00:16:24.240 fund how much of that are you expecting to be wiped out in terms of the rebuild of jasper

00:16:27.760 one thing i know that will happen with jasper is there will be a disaster recovery program

00:16:34.720 i know that's something that is is common and it's already through the treasury board i don't

00:16:39.940 believe it's gone through cabinet yet but i know that will happen there is federal dollars that

00:16:44.860 come in into play there but when you talk about the contingency there is a lot of pressures that

00:16:50.600 we see we we invested in education here in first quarter we know there's pressures in health and

00:16:56.700 as css that will probably be dealt with its second quarter uh so we're we're trying to uh

00:17:03.420 keep our powder dry in the contingency to deal with the challenges throughout the year but there

00:17:08.460 are many not not just just we'll take one more from the floor and a final question from the phones go

00:17:13.580 ahead graham thompson i've got to start today i'm just going back to the it changes and getting

00:17:18.460 going back to this idea of people getting freebies tickets from certain

00:17:26.020 groups why doesn't the government just pay for tickets like if it's important

00:17:30.460 to cheer the Oilers on I'm not saying it's not important why not just pay for

00:17:33.640 your ticket or have the government pay for a ticket to sit with the rest of us

00:17:37.660 in the stands as opposed to going to a VIP suite things like that well it's

00:17:43.780 it's consideration I guess Graham like I've never I've never gone to a game

00:17:47.800 like that before I guess they've never been in the playoffs but yeah I understand

00:17:53.080 you want to go there and cheer them up but why don't you pay for your ticket it's a it's a fair

00:17:58.780 fair point and in the future are you gonna pay for your own thing as opposed to having staff go

00:18:05.540 there getting freebies from certain corporations or whatever I understand the premier has security

00:18:11.740 issues i understand but when it comes to the rest of you and staff why don't just pay for your

00:18:17.340 tickets to go see a game or have the government at least pay for the ticket as opposed to this

00:18:22.620 apparent conflict of interest popping well i certainly don't think the government should

00:18:26.460 have to pay for anything other tax for taxpayers dollars but i and have staff to go and have

00:18:33.180 yourself or staff pay for the tickets well it's a it's a consideration that should be taken going

00:18:39.020 going forward thank you i have a follow up right okay we'll come back to you at the very end

00:18:56.860 yeah go ahead uh i i just want to go back to the fiscal update for one question i i think i ask it

00:19:03.180 every single fiscal update when are we going to see a break for those albertans who are struggling

00:19:08.540 financially i understand there are programs but i want to talk specifically about the future there's

00:19:13.420 been talk of a tax break that's going to save albertans i believe it's 1.4 billion dollars

00:19:18.940 when are we going to see relief for people who are who are still struggling with that inflation

00:19:24.140 well i know the the premier's uh asked asked me to do what we can to accelerate the the tax cut

00:19:30.380 so those conversations are being had and they'll continue to be had as we build budget 2025.

00:19:36.060 um i think what what this shows i just remind everyone we're still in a borrowing position

00:19:41.340 but this improved position has has improved our debt servicing by about 180 million from budget

00:19:49.260 that's dollars that can be um you know put to the programs that albertans rely on today and in the

00:19:54.220 future so we have a a robust uh amount of programming to to help albertans now and in

00:20:02.700 the future and by being prudent now we can ensure that those programs remain now and in the future

00:20:08.620 tim do you have a follow-up uh yeah uh let's go back to the tickets i just want to know from you

00:20:15.820 minister do you think yourself or other people in your government need to be more more forthcoming

00:20:22.540 with albertans do you think you owe it to albertans uh to give further answers on this subject well

00:20:27.660 i think the the ethics commissioner works on behalf of albertans that's why we ensure that

00:20:32.220 we're following all the rules and we have a disclosure that we fill out annually with the

00:20:37.020 ethics commissioner to ensure that we're um you know following the legislation and doing doing

00:20:42.380 right on behalf of all albertans so i think i think that's the most important thing if you know

00:20:48.540 if you think you're if you think you're doing something wrong you shouldn't do it i i certainly

00:20:52.540 didn't and that's why i'm happy to tell you here today okay and i do owe graham a follow-up i'm

00:20:57.740 apologize i jumped the gun go ahead graham with your the final question today there we go um but

00:21:02.460 you understand why people would look at this and think there's a conflict here do you understand

00:21:05.820 why people are thinking why not be more voting i know you're going to say you're following the

00:21:09.980 rules but do you look at this as a politician and how people perceive things the optics of this do

00:21:17.180 you understand why the optics might not look good to people outside of the government well the optic

00:21:25.980 that i care the most about graham is about being honest to albertans i think this is a job that

00:21:32.060 i require that i want albertans to know that uh you know i'm i'm forthcoming and so i fall i follow

00:21:39.980 the rules with the ethics commissioner answered your question here today and i don't know what

00:21:46.060 what more i can do thanks everyone that concludes today minister can you explain why you're

00:21:50.460 comfortable or why the government should not pay for tickets i get that but why it would be okay

00:21:56.780 for politicians or staff to take freebies from companies that do business or would want to do

00:22:03.500 business with the government why would that be okay look i'm i know there's many events throughout

00:22:10.140 the course of the year that i attend you know with the media as well where we're hosted by different

00:22:15.900 different groups i take meetings every day with people that both schedule through our office and

00:22:21.820 my calendars foipable i i meet with everyone so when you were meeting with samarish and his box

00:22:28.780 did you push him to get some sort of value out of the 80 million dollars for the uh tylenol that

00:22:34.380 put children at risk what did you do in that moment as finance minister i'm not going to

00:22:39.180 comment about any private alberta citizens you know i'd i'd never met the man before

00:22:46.380 and he offered the ticket and uh and i went thanks we're done

Western Standard - August 30, 2024

Alberta’s First Quarter Fiscal Update for 2024-25

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