Alberta’s Independence Vote： Ready for 2026？
Episode Stats
Summary
With over 400,000 signatures calling for a referendum on Alberta's status within Canada, there's no getting around it anymore: Alberta needs to vote on independence from the federation. In this episode, I talk about why a referendum is the only way to save Alberta, and why it should be held in mid-2026.
Transcript
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All right, let's talk about the part we can save in Canada, and that's Alberta. And it's
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clear that the question of provincial independence, it has to come to a referendum in Alberta.
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There's no getting around it anymore. We've got pro-independence groups who've been working for
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years in preparation for a referendum, and now anti-independence activists under disgraced
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former Redford government MLA Thomas Lukasik have turned in an official petition with over 400,000
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signatures demanding a referendum on independence. Well, how can we say no? With people on both sides
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of the issue calling for a referendum, it only makes sense to schedule one for 2026. Now, Lukasik,
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also known as Fabio, is claiming now that he really didn't want to invoke a referendum with his
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petition. So either he's lying or he didn't actually read the application that he himself
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submitted to begin the petition, and it expressly calls for a referendum on Alberta's status within
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Canada. It almost seems as if his actions were actually a data mining exercise for a political
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move down the road. Who knows? Whatever the motivation might be, though, the referendum ball is rolling.
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While Lukasik's petition calls for a referendum, it comes from the perspective of asking people to vote
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for the status quo. It's not a constitutional application, so no matter which way people vote
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in his referendum, as he phrases it, actually nothing will change. If a referendum is held where
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nothing could possibly change, no matter how people vote, it isn't a referendum. It's a tax-funded
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opinion poll. The Alberta government, though, they can remain true to the demands of the referendum
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proponents by changing the wording of the referendum, so it becomes a true one, a constitutional one that
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would lead to, potentially, the independence of Alberta under the Clarity Act. It's not tossing out
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Lukasik's efforts. It's giving him what he ostensibly wanted, but just in a different framing and where
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a positive vote would lead to independence. Scheduling a referendum would serve the UCP
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government well, too. The deadline's fast approaching for the demands Premier Smith made
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to the Carney government, and so far he's completely ignored them. There's few indications he's going
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to make any significant policy changes before her deadline into the Great Cup. He said he'd kill the
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emissions cap, but then he added a bunch of caveats to the policy. If Smith lets Carney laugh in her face
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after these demands, her government's going to be rendered impotent when it comes to federal incursions
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and the blockage of Alberta's industries. If she scheduled an independence referendum the day after
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the Great Cup, though, I think people across the country would sit up and take notice. Support for
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independence in Alberta might not have hit majority level yet across the province, but the independence
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faction within the UCP is significant. Those independence advocates are getting impatient, and they're going
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to turn their guns towards the UCP if they don't see some action when it comes to dealing with a
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federation that treats Alberta poorly. The UCP AGM is approaching in just a few more weeks, and there
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are movements afoot to try and turn the UCP in an overtly sovereignist party. This would be disastrous
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for the UCP. The best way Smith can take the pressure off from within her own party is to set an
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independence referendum date for mid-2026. Independence advocates can then turn their focus and energy into
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campaigning for the referendum, and the Premier can just say she's letting democracy run its
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course, which it would be. It'd be a tough path to win an independence referendum with a clear
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majority wanting Alberta to leave the federation. The momentum of public opinion, it is on the side
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of independence advocates, but there's a ways to go. Depending on the actions of the federal government
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and how effective the independence campaign is, the tide could turn. But even if only 40% of Albertans
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chose independence in a referendum next year, it wouldn't be a wasted effort. The country would be put on
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notice. Alberta is moving towards the tipping point of a successful independence vote, and if changes
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aren't made, a winning referendum is going to be held within a few years. A referendum campaign will put
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the federation and Alberta's role within it, within the, into the news scroll for at least six months.
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Discussions of provincial jurisdiction and federal policies that harm the province are going to
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dominate punditry, and people could begin to understand that the status quo isn't an option.
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There's little sense forcing groups to petition further to invoke a referendum on Alberta's independence.
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Lukasik got the job done. Thank you, Thomas. Now let's put it in the hands of the electorate,
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but with better phrasing and a binding outcome. Let 2026 be the year of the referendum.