Western Standard - Can Alberta unite to fix Canada？

00:00:00.320 As the referendum approaches, it's time for Albertans to think strategically.

00:00:04.480 Today, we'll set out a structure for an analysis that will help all of us.

00:00:09.760 First, the difference between a proponent for a position and a strategist for a position

00:00:15.200 is emotion. A proponent deploys emotion and a strategist shuns it. Second, the independence

00:00:24.080 agenda is distinct from the western alienation project third the independence agenda has three

00:00:31.600 hills that it either dies on or conquers this coming referendum this fall election in 2027

00:00:39.120 and finally the binding referendum if it gets that far when you understand events in this context

00:00:46.640 a new alternative strategy emerges and that's a strategy that we're going to share with you today

00:00:54.080 This is Nation of People.

00:01:11.960 I'm Natalie St. Hilaire, and this is Randy Royer.

00:01:15.020 Josh Andis will join us after a short presentation.

00:01:20.660 Okay, I said a lot there in the introduction today, Randy.

00:01:23.580 So let's unpack it. The independence movement and Western alienation are two projects that, although maybe founded on a similar concern, might actually have different components.

00:01:43.500 Absolutely.

00:01:44.480 They were brought together to sort of add momentum to address the issues.

00:01:53.740 And so the alienation project has been around forever.

00:01:56.820 It's certainly been around all my life, and I've worked on it since I was 20 years old.

00:02:01.920 That was a long time ago.

00:02:04.060 And that has support of about 65% to 75% of the population that recognize the issue and would like to get it solved.

00:02:12.520 The independence project doesn't have that kind of support.

00:02:17.300 Its base core support is about 18%.

00:02:20.600 And then when you add in on top of that, you know, the alienation aspect of it,

00:02:26.880 it's gone up to around 29% in January.

00:02:30.160 Sometimes it's higher than that in some polls,

00:02:32.540 but it seems to have slipped back to around 25% in September here.

00:02:36.960 So and and then there's the other component that part of the part of the alienation group is saying, well, I'm going to vote for for the independence option in this RISA referendum to make a point to Ottawa.

00:02:54.260 And so that's about another 10% to 15%.

00:02:56.540 So it looks like the cap for the independence vote, the leave vote, continue the conversation, is going to be between 25% and 35%.

00:03:07.800 So it appears by the polls that it's going to be a solid stay in Canada vote.

00:03:14.440 Or at least stop the conversation.

00:03:16.980 At least stop the conversation.

00:03:19.320 Yeah. Yeah. And so, you know, given that there's over 60 percent based on your numbers here that still feel alienated in the West, you know, what what do we do about that?

00:03:34.180 And I guess before I get there, though, let's let's map out the territory that we're actually in, because something else that I think is really important for people to remember is that it's highly unlikely that given a NDP government in Alberta,

00:03:49.320 regardless of how the vote goes in october to continue the conversation and have a binding

00:03:57.340 referendum or to stop it it's unlikely that anything will continue to happen if if an ndp

00:04:04.820 government gets in so you what you've calculated is there's actually three separate steps that the

00:04:13.020 independence movement has to achieve or has to problems it has to solve in order to you know

00:04:18.680 win the whole debate and separate from canada or at least even begin the formal process well i like

00:04:22.900 that you said that understand the ground we're on yeah so you if you think of it as a military

00:04:27.600 campaign i really like napoleonic era so there's three hills that we have to at the the independence

00:04:34.020 movement has to conquer before actual victory the first one is uh this referendum that's right in

00:04:41.100 front of us and if uh even though the polls are that way there's a possibility that the stay side

00:04:47.200 won't show up and uh i calculate those numbers if if the turnout is 38 on the stay side uh they

00:04:55.920 might the the the uh independence movement might actually win that and continue what might beat win

00:05:02.080 that hill so that's that that is a possibility despite the uh the polling so that's the first

00:05:08.320 thing then this the second hill is that if we continue the conversation we get interrupted by

00:05:14.560 a provincial election and the stay side will have an opportunity to vote for the NDP and

00:05:22.780 get rid of the conversation and I think that that is a real possibility and given some of

00:05:29.140 the things that we heard on episode 14 about people are tired of the conversation that there's

00:05:33.740 damage to it you know there's and there's a backlash that's a real possibility that

00:05:39.220 the people will just say I want to end this conversation and so I'm going to either stay at

00:05:43.040 home, vote for a third party, or vote NDP. And all those things will reduce the UCP numbers.

00:05:49.320 If we get past all of that, and we still have the third hill to climb, where we have a definitive

00:05:55.900 question, then that's another problem, if you will. And so there are the three distinct hills

00:06:03.980 that have to be, you know, thought out and completed. And in the middle of all that stuff

00:06:10.720 is that it's going to go to court for sure it's going to go it's already gone to court

00:06:14.960 there's three known hills but there's a lot of surprise attacks if you're using a war analogy

00:06:22.580 that could come out of any direction i don't think anybody expected for there to be uh you know an

00:06:29.040 indigenous claim against the initial referendum question which is what the citizens put forward

00:06:34.440 But how did we really, like, end up here and facing the questions in this way?

00:06:40.540 You know, what was, what actually happened?

00:06:42.880 Well, I give credit to our premier.

00:06:44.920 And, you know, this is a longstanding problem, one I've worked on, as I said, all my life.

00:06:51.240 And a lot of people have.

00:06:53.360 And she actually had the courage to say, we need to resolve this problem, the alienation, Western alienation.

00:06:59.660 And we need to resolve it as a country, and we need to resolve it as a province.

00:07:04.440 and um and so i think that and i i view this charitably uh not everyone does but i think

00:07:11.320 that what she concluded was look we need to have a discussion about how impatient we are to solve

00:07:18.440 this problem and by you know having a a separation movement uh call it you know independence movement

00:07:25.320 or whatever you call it um by actually bringing that to the fore and merging this alienation

00:07:29.960 project in with the the independence movement um that actually you know added to some numbers and

00:07:37.600 it brought it to the fore and it got the nation talking about it so that's a good thing the

00:07:42.420 problem now is that it really appears that uh albertans have made up their mind as we saw you

00:07:48.160 know 65 to 75 percent are want to stay and 90 of those people are saying that's my choice i'm not

00:07:55.600 going to change it so it's very definitive so now that we know that the the the then you know the

00:08:02.580 ground that we're fighting on and usually continue to use that and we know that if we go up that hill

00:08:08.700 again there's a whole bunch of hedgerows in front of us that are going to have some surprises you

00:08:13.400 know like in in the d-day invasion um we now know what all that is going to be so we're going to

00:08:21.280 start talking about in this uh as we go through this that it's perhaps it's time to start

00:08:27.720 differentiating the alienation project from the independence agenda and i just want to you know

00:08:35.720 presence two things inside of what you're saying is it was really the people of alberta that came

00:08:40.900 together and requested the referendum right it's a it was a citizen-led initiative so you know the

00:08:47.560 premier has responded in the way that she's responded but it was ultimately this sort of

00:08:53.180 energy that albertans have and this desire to be able to change things and make them better

00:08:57.740 um that led us here as well well and it's also i mean i talk about the separation trap uh it's that

00:09:05.420 you know the the country has basically said you know we're going to disregard your opinion we're

00:09:11.220 not going to give you a voice in the the people that you elect to ottawa and we're going to you

00:09:17.420 know, as in the Trudeau years, they treated us almost with disdain. And the only option we have

00:09:23.500 is to separate. And so our discontent was funneled into a most extreme option, and an option that's

00:09:31.360 so extreme that 75% of the people don't want to do it. And so that's how, you know, again,

00:09:37.180 building on our last episode, that's how we ended up getting a question that doesn't really address

00:09:43.340 the issue that we all agree on or many of us agree on yeah and i mean i i also want to say

00:09:48.640 we haven't had the referendum yet so we don't know how it's going to turn out and uh we could

00:09:52.900 be in that process of where we're going to be looking at continuing a conversation towards

00:09:59.360 a binding referendum so you know both things really could happen on we don't know the results

00:10:05.280 of october 19th we don't but that october 19th isn't the big issue it's those three hills that

00:10:10.720 that the independence movement has to climb and defeat.

00:10:14.420 And that's a very big order when the other side is 75% and you're 25%.

00:10:21.500 So regardless of who goes out to the polls on the 19th,

00:10:24.540 the reality you're saying is the polling is showing that it's not a 50 plus 1% real in favor of,

00:10:32.020 at this point in time, being independent from Canada.

00:10:35.640 We have, in my view.

00:10:37.020 In your view, yeah.

00:10:37.720 My view is that we have to strategically understand that the probability of being successful three times when you're facing a majority that is clearly larger than you.

00:10:51.520 You know, if you were a general, would you take those risks?

00:10:54.540 And the answer is probably not.

00:10:55.780 So we need to think strategically and say, well, is there a better option than trying to run up each of those three hills and exert all the effort and exert all the pain and find out that that actually isn't even the question that we really want to be asking?

00:11:12.360 And then, of course, you know, as we talked about in the last episode, you've got the, you know, the recent actions of our partner to the South. And I do like to think of them as a partner. You know, as they've become a little bit more, you know, there's been a change in how they view their relationship to the rest of the world, how America views its relationship to the rest of the world. They become more nationalistic.

00:11:37.120 And so that has had impact in the level of risk that Albertans feel towards this referendum right now, and also in terms of just the reality of what we're dealing with in a step change in American thinking towards an independent Alberta.

00:11:55.220 Change is always hard. And so when you're proposing independence and splitting from a country, there's a huge risk in that. And, you know, we saw that risk before, you know, we saw it, you know, starting with softwood lumber, where we realized the United States was not going to adhere to any agreements, and they were not going to pay any attention to international rules.

00:12:14.640 They're above that. And, you know, that's their view of life. So that's fine. You know, they're not a signatory to the UNCLO, which is often presented as assured access to ports because of this international agreement.

00:12:31.140 the united states didn't sign that and they're also not constrained by any international agreement

00:12:36.500 so um and you know we also know that um i think it's 40 sorry 57 percent of albertans think that

00:12:45.780 the united states will use uh political uh political levers or economic levers to force

00:12:55.220 us to become an American state. So if that's what we believe, you know, the amount of, you know,

00:13:02.620 I hate to use the word belligerence, but the belligerence coming out of the U.S. administration

00:13:06.660 has gone up. That increases the risk. That has been a downdraft on the number of people

00:13:11.500 that have been willing to consider Alberta independence. It's just, I mean, those are just

00:13:16.620 the facts. So, you know, what else are you seeing here in the numbers? Because I know you've

00:13:24.480 looked at a lot of statistics over time and what else are you seeing as far as like that u.s risk

00:13:29.600 or the numbers that you're seeing there as being important well i think the biggest one of the key

00:13:35.100 things is that the two sides view the relationship with the united states in a very different way

00:13:41.200 and you know i think the the independent side about 50 percent of the independent side views

00:13:52.800 that if we end up being in an American state, that's actually a positive thing.

00:13:58.100 Whereas the state side, 80 plus percent feel that if we ended up becoming an American state,

00:14:09.000 that would be a very negative thing.

00:14:11.300 So the two sides are very, very much apart.

00:14:15.040 And it's kind of, we don't actually even see the other side.

00:14:19.800 And that's part of the problem that, you know, the stay side doesn't realize that the independent side are very much pro-American and would be happy if we became American and vice versa.

00:14:33.340 They don't see each other.

00:14:34.440 So that's part of the divide in our conversations and part of the divide in our thinking.

00:14:38.240 And the independent side maybe isn't interpreting events that we see coming out of the United States in different ways.

00:14:51.880 So, you know, in the early stages, for example, it was presented that our oil was a great asset at the bargaining table and that everybody was going to bend to our will and give us the deals we want, including free trade with the United States because we have this huge oil.

00:15:09.000 Well, it's actually turned out that it just puts a target on our back.

00:15:13.060 It's not an asset that we can use for leverage.

00:15:17.160 It's actually put a target on our back. 0.55

00:15:19.260 And we see that in Venezuela, in the bombings of Iran, in this happy deal with Saudi Arabia.

00:15:27.140 And the point of Donald Trump standing up at the United Nations is saying that he controls 60% of the world's oil.

00:15:37.320 Well, you know what? That includes us. It has to include us.

00:15:40.100 So he's already kind of put us in his pocket, in his mind, it sounds like to me.

00:15:44.500 Either that or he just made up a number, one or the other. I don't know which.

00:15:47.460 Okay. So, I mean, I think what you're suggesting, I mean, regardless of how people are feeling or looking at independence or, you know, what the polls are saying or what the get out the vote's going to be, just to get back to your main argument today, is that Western alienation and independence are two different things.

00:16:11.380 That's correct.

00:16:11.940 And given that there's some risk, not only in independence, but in dying on one of the hills that are in front of the independence movement.

00:16:21.140 Right.

00:16:23.000 What can we do anything about retaining some of the energy we have for change and actually solving the problem of Western alienation, which is the problem that we have a overwhelming majority of Albertans agreeing in.

00:16:41.940 or agreeing to, which you saw really in the referendum we did about equalization payments,

00:16:47.320 which was easily over 60%, I believe. So what steps or how do you see that playing out as far

00:16:56.160 as the distinction there between wanting independence and wanting to solve the problem

00:17:00.960 of Western alienation? Well, first, the alienation issue is all the questions range in the 60% to

00:17:09.640 70%. So questions like, are we better off to be free from federal harm? You know, 68%.

00:17:16.960 Control our own resources? 79%. If Alberta actually had more control over our businesses

00:17:26.220 and our resources, you know, 60% say we wouldn't even be talking about independence. And so,

00:17:32.680 you know, it's shown time and time again, that the alienation issue is legitimate,

00:17:38.200 it's popular it's well over you know well over 60 on all issues and um and the issue that i think

00:17:47.340 that we're facing from a strategic perspective is when do we try to take the two apart again

00:17:53.300 so that we the premier kind of put them together to try to draw attention to the issue that's fine

00:18:00.220 but now that we know the general view of of now that we understand the general view of of

00:18:07.740 of the independence movement and the three hills that have to be climbed uh is it time to take the

00:18:15.860 alienation issue away from the independence issue and give it a life of its own and make it as we

00:18:22.980 talked about in in episode 14 that's the right question the question is not should we stay or

00:18:29.260 should we go it's not the question is how do we fix what we have and that's what albertans want

00:18:36.320 do they want to fix what we have and and that's shown up in all of the statistics yeah it's really

00:18:41.080 interesting that the statistics around western alienation and those issues are so high in

00:18:46.620 agreement and that we're really struggling on the independent side to get the the numbers to reach

00:18:52.640 to sort of reach over that 30 percent mark and of course we'll see when the vote comes because we

00:18:58.620 don't we don't know until until we count the votes and it's also again worth saying that you

00:19:04.660 know the the premier is really responding to a little of the people on this one given that it

00:19:08.400 was a citizen-led referendum so um you know she's putting forward a question that she feels

00:19:13.540 it solves the problem of having two separate citizen-led initiatives happening at the same

00:19:18.680 time so um and we've said a lot throughout all of these episodes like we've really laid

00:19:24.320 you know a groundwork and a foundation for what it is that you believe has happened not only in

00:19:30.120 terms of the 1982 constitution but in terms of how this country came together yeah over time

00:19:36.260 and so you know what is it what's the key to unlocking um the space where we can unite

00:19:47.880 around something and make positive movement forward make collaborative movement forward

00:19:54.700 Yeah. So I think of all the things you said there, starting with the first point is the premier, it was citizen-led initiative, but she enabled it.

00:20:05.800 You know, she encouraged it. She changed the rules, dropped the hurdle rate down. That's all great.

00:20:13.760 But she facilitated it. And I believe that she facilitated it to bring the issue to its fore, which, again, we've said many times,

00:20:21.960 most politicians aren't brave enough to actually do that.

00:20:25.500 They don't want to deal with these long-term issues.

00:20:29.640 And I give her credit for being willing to risk her job in doing this.

00:20:37.800 So now that same leadership is the answer.

00:20:43.260 And so what we have not done is we have not told the rest of the country what we want.

00:20:49.460 so we have said ottawa doesn't treat us properly 60 of plus of the people agree with that but now

00:20:57.960 we need to say this is how we want to be treated and this is how this is what we want in a

00:21:03.520 constitution and so that's why i drive at that what i'm asking the premier to do is to step out

00:21:10.760 change the conversation and say well you know those three hills are going to be there but what

00:21:16.460 we really need to do is talk about what kind of country we want to be part of you know what i

00:21:23.580 think that's what does that look like for the west to be in let's define it let's vote on it let's

00:21:31.740 address the 1982 constitution which you've heard us in these episodes talk about we actually

00:21:37.980 haven't approved it well let's let's have a referendum on that let's have a definitive date

00:21:43.180 where we're going to have that conversation and say are we do we agree with that constitution or

00:21:47.100 do we not and if we don't agree with it what kind of constitution do we want do you think that a

00:21:52.700 process like that could go a long way to educating our neighbors who might not you know who are busy

00:21:59.980 with the day-to-day of their lives and who might not be paying a lot of attention but who do feel

00:22:04.620 these feelings of western alienation do you think that if we went through a process of saying like

00:22:09.740 here's what we want yes and here's why we want it and here's what we're not happy with and we

00:22:16.860 had a louder conversation about that in a way that they could really understand related to the

00:22:23.180 foundational creation of our country i mean do you think that that that could were say were

00:22:31.740 say ottawa not to listen at that point because ottawa has historically not hurt us which is why

00:22:38.940 we're in this you know position of western alienation but were we to go through that

00:22:43.340 process do you think we might end up if ottawa didn't listen with more support for independence

00:22:48.700 at that point um you know i i think that uh um you said a lot of stuff there yeah and so what

00:22:57.340 i'd like to do is unpack some of that some of those comments and then come to your final question

00:23:01.980 okay um first of all the uh the premier took an incredible risk and put herself in a very

00:23:08.940 awkward position now because of how this has all unfolded you know it it got the risk got amplified

00:23:15.180 by events that she had no control over coming out of the united states and so the question is how

00:23:20.060 do we how do we turn this into meeting what i believe was were the her original objective which

00:23:25.660 were to address western alienation so um what the what people want to hear and what we heard in

00:23:33.660 episode 14 was that people want to know why did we go through this what's the solution what does

00:23:40.700 the wind look like if we're going to do all this stuff what does the wind look like what's in it

00:23:45.580 for me and how are you going to run the province between here and there so that's why i would like

00:23:51.980 i i want to propose to that the premier shifts the attention off of the independence movement

00:23:58.540 and on to the alienation project and say this is precisely how we can solve the alienation issue

00:24:06.540 and that's ultimately a referendum probably at the next election on the on on uh on whether

00:24:13.500 or not we accept it but also to facilitate sorry whether or not we accept the 1982 constitution

00:24:19.180 that's what you're proposing i'm getting tongue-tied thank you yeah exactly and but also

00:24:24.620 in the context of defining what we want in alberta that's a people-driven movement so

00:24:30.780 the premier should do her job and run the province and facilitate uh you know we had

00:24:36.940 the participation uh democracy through with peter take that episode and let's put it into the hands

00:24:43.900 of these incredible alberta activists that have spent you know so much time and effort trying to

00:24:49.340 solve these problems they they can be sought out and develop through participatory democracy

00:24:56.380 a plan that would be good for everybody and then when we put that on the table well people will

00:25:03.900 will start to pay attention so that's the first part of the question the second part is

00:25:08.460 who will pay attention and i my view of it is that this solution doesn't go through ottawa

00:25:16.220 that ottawa is not our adversary this the solution to our western alienation goes through

00:25:22.540 british columbia and when you think about it right now alberta and british columbia

00:25:28.140 if we were to work together we have the same population as quebec we have basically 10 million

00:25:34.060 people our economy is 120 of that of quebec and in 10 years roughly we'll have the same population

00:25:42.060 is ontario so we need to to number one recognize what their issues are on both sides of the border

00:25:50.140 british columbia has incredibly bad land issues and they've got this duty to consult that is

00:25:56.620 poorly defined and the politicians won't take it on well alberta bc need to work together to solve

00:26:02.460 that and if we do that and i think saskatchewan would join us very quickly and quite possibly

00:26:08.700 manitoba suddenly you've got the west speaking in one voice so then to answer your final question

00:26:17.100 is that if the west spoke with a single voice and said this is the canada that we propose

00:26:24.140 to ontario to quebec to the atlantic canada then that's a very strong voice that's 14 million

00:26:30.860 people 4.5 million kilometers of land some of the greatest resources in the world incredible cities

00:26:39.420 you know vancouver is one of the most beautiful cities in the world and and it isn't just you

00:26:44.540 know right it won't be a right-wing utopia or a left-wing it'll be a balance and so it can be a

00:26:49.900 great incredible place and if the east doesn't want to listen to us then suddenly the west working

00:26:58.460 together is in fact a viable country because we would have two oceans we would have access to the

00:27:04.900 world and so to answer your question that is a stronger voice than a landlocked province of

00:27:11.980 alberta i mean it's certainly i mean i love the vision that you have and the hope that you have

00:27:18.660 and i i do understand the moment that we're in to be part of a process yes so i can appreciate

00:27:25.520 that as part of that process, we could raise the question, the issues, the specific issues that we

00:27:33.880 have and a proposed solution. And we can see who else might be available, you know, to have that

00:27:39.600 conversation about those issues and potential solutions. And that might include folks in BC

00:27:44.940 because, you know, they've got some property right issues going on. And we may have a conservative

00:27:50.280 government in the next month in BC to work with. So that could be very interesting.

00:27:55.520 Let's get everybody on the same page so that the indigenous prosper as the general population

00:28:01.800 prospers.

00:28:03.120 Well, I love your passion and your vision for being a part of the process and for ensuring

00:28:09.280 that all of this Alberta energy creates real change.

00:28:12.560 And I think that all of these avenues are very important for us to look at.

00:28:16.120 And I'm really interested to hear what Josh Andrus from the Western Standard has to say

00:28:20.860 about all this.

00:28:21.400 So let's bring him in.

00:28:22.360 Great.

00:28:22.460 Okay, well, I feel a little bit strange welcoming you in your own studio, but welcome Josh Andrus of the Western Standard to Nation of People. Thanks for joining us.

00:28:31.360 Thanks for having me. Happy to be here.

00:28:33.260 And how you both know each other, actually, is because, Josh, you were part of Project Confederation, which was a proponent or an advocate for constitutional change, right?

00:28:43.500 Yeah, I think the concept, it came to me, well, I was at a different organization. I was at Grassroots Alberta as the executive director there. And Peter McCaffrey had actually come to me at the Alberta Institute with the suggestion that we team up.

00:29:00.220 And I went to him with this concept of seeking true reform to confederation to alleviate concerns of Western alienation.

00:29:11.000 And and the objective was, yeah, to find a solution to the problem.

00:29:17.780 And the problem is that in most instances, I think people can say that they're not happy with the status quo.

00:29:27.580 They're not happy with the state of affairs. And within that, there's two subsections. There's the people who will forever and for always support the concept of independence. They don't want to be in Canada.

00:29:40.600 And then there's people who are maybe more willing to let the country kind of try and resolve these issues.

00:29:47.780 And what we are seeing right now is a situation where the people that believe that we have to leave are leading the conversation.

00:29:59.340 And that's not necessarily a bad thing.

00:30:01.700 I think when you're talking about moving the Overton window and getting into a position that, you know, we can actually seek these changes with leverage is is something that's on the table.

00:30:14.320 But I mean, yeah, Project Confederation, the entire concept was to get the Constitution open.

00:30:18.680 That's all I cared about. And so I went into the legislature hoping that we were going to be moving in that direction.

00:30:24.400 And and then once I kind of well, once Derek will just say once Derek offered me this job, I was ready to go.

00:30:31.700 uh but uh so no it's it's been uh it's been an interesting few years but yeah that's how we met

00:30:37.700 uh i think it was at uh the value of alberta conference in january 2021 you were the keynote

00:30:42.660 speaker there and and so yeah i know we've been uh we've we've been good i'd say good friends

00:30:48.900 ever since so we've gone out for lunch quite a few times yeah yeah it must mean friendship

00:30:54.180 i guess we can label it now i didn't hear you swearing as you walked away all right with the

00:30:58.820 bromance okay okay but well let's get back to the issue at hand right the moment we find ourself in

00:31:10.420 which is well the you know we're a few weeks out from the october 19th referendum to decide on

00:31:16.660 whether we continue down the path of a binding referendum for separation and so you know randy

00:31:22.180 has proposed that we look at changing the constitution as a process as a conversation

00:31:29.060 as a request that we go through in part of this larger process kind of regardless of the outcome

00:31:36.900 on the 19th um you know what are your thoughts there josh knowing that you've been looking at

00:31:41.540 this issue also for a while well i think uh the by-election a couple weeks ago in calgary shaw

00:31:47.060 And the polling that came out today or earlier this week on the has the NDP and the UCP almost virtually in a deadlock.

00:31:56.360 Obviously, the NDP took the Cavishaw by-election.

00:32:00.220 And I think it's a situation that Smith has kind of put herself too narrowly in between the two factions.

00:32:06.740 Independent supporters don't believe that she has their best interests in mind because she is openly stumping to remain in Canada.

00:32:14.140 And status quo federalists don't believe that she is taking their views seriously because she's put the referendum on the ballot.

00:32:23.880 And so I think I've always thought that, yeah, there's always going to be an underlining barrier of support.

00:32:31.280 And you can look at the two segments, the constituencies, we'll call them, the independent supporters and the alienated people as kind of like one lump group.

00:32:43.400 And then you can kind of have like a line in the middle of where they stand on the issue. And the idea is that between the two factions, if you can find a coalition between the two, you can maintain a government in this province for a long time.

00:32:59.200 I mean, the Reform Party picked up massive majorities in the 90s, and Western alienation under Justin Trudeau didn't go away.

00:33:06.240 And it's escalated to the point where we are, for the first time in our history, actually having a referendum on leaving the country.

00:33:14.340 So I think the key with Smith is finding that one concept or one really uniting issue that can deliver that coalition.

00:33:25.780 And Smith has, in my opinion, really one option here, and that is to try and genuinely fix the problem, to find a way to bring the constituencies together. And I think the only way to do that is to open the Constitution.

00:33:41.520 and that means that all options need to be on the table everything that we have an issue with

00:33:46.780 needs to be on a report or at least on the table i think i don't know if we need actual government

00:33:53.880 bureaucrats to go and set up a panel and do a report but i think yeah i don't think we need

00:34:00.540 i think we can take what we have and we can put it all on the table but if this province is to

00:34:06.800 remain a part of the country, then the country needs to recognize that we have issues and

00:34:11.180 genuinely try and fix them.

00:34:12.880 And the only way to do that is to open up the fundamental document in which all of our

00:34:17.140 laws are founded.

00:34:17.980 And that is the constitution of this country.

00:34:20.360 And I think, I think Smith's got to do it.

00:34:23.540 I think the only way that she can convince both factions of the coalition that she's

00:34:27.660 taking their issues seriously is to genuinely try and fix the country. 0.82

00:34:31.980 And I think the only way to do it is to have a constitutional convention.

00:34:34.520 And just if we were to have that conversation, I mean, just the process of having that conversation, again, despite what the results of any referendum or election are, do you think that we would move our conversation and our position forward, even if Ottawa chose to ignore what we were saying?

00:34:54.900 yeah i think that i think you have to have the conversation i think western alienation

00:35:01.320 ted uh sorry tom flanagan wrote a book called waiting on the wave and it's essentially the

00:35:08.940 underlying thesis is that every single wave of western alienation gets bigger yep that in the

00:35:18.200 early 1900s while we fought for natural resource control it took 25 years for our province to get

00:35:24.120 control of our natural resources a right that was granted to the original provinces upon

00:35:28.440 confederation it took us 25 years to fight for that then we went through you know i i think even

00:35:35.900 in the period of relative calm we'll call it you can probably go and find a calgary herald front

00:35:41.220 page in every single week in the history of this province where the premier of alberta has an issue

00:35:46.360 with the prime minister of canada it doesn't matter who the prime minister is it doesn't

00:35:50.320 matter who the premier is, Ernest Manning fought with Saint Laurent, and he fought with

00:35:56.480 Lougheed and Trudeau, and then you end up with, you know, the Peter Lougheed era, where

00:36:03.100 he had to stand up for provincial interests, where he fought tooth and nail to ensure that

00:36:08.120 control of natural resources was enshrined in Section 92 of the Constitution, that it

00:36:12.700 did not revert back to the federal government, and then we had, you know, the National Energy

00:36:18.440 program in the late 80s and then three years later the reform parties founded and 93 they

00:36:26.100 sweep to power and it's just every wave gets a little bit bigger and so i think the situation

00:36:32.360 that we find ourselves in is that perhaps this wave does not succeed in separating from the

00:36:40.100 country even beginning the next step i think that that is very much a strong possibility at this

00:36:45.240 point but in order to convince the province and the people in it that she is both understanding

00:36:53.780 of the issues and serious about fixing them is to have that conversation and yeah the bureaucrats

00:36:59.620 will throw their hands up and say don't do it yep you know like that's just what they're trained to

00:37:04.500 do but they also like they're the ones that are suggesting we take back less tax dollars from

00:37:09.980 Ottawa than we pay in federal taxes. I mean, you look at the fiscal transfer system. I mean,

00:37:15.160 you guys talked about it on this program. We pay way more in federal taxes than the federal

00:37:19.380 government spends on services in this province. The Canada Health Transfer, we need to take a

00:37:24.620 look at that. How much did we pay to get that money back? And we're not doing these things as

00:37:29.720 a government. And I think the issue is that the bureaucrats don't want to see it. They don't want

00:37:33.780 to have that conversation because to them, if they're getting 500 million for a hospital,

00:37:38.400 why complain if they're getting 135 million to build an assisted living or an assisted living

00:37:45.000 facility well who cares like to them they'd rather take the money than look at the fact that we spent

00:37:50.980 700 million in tax dollars to get that 500 million back yeah and i think that's the key issue and so

00:37:57.300 yeah i think that that is what she has to do and i think it's it's not up to the bureaucrats to

00:38:02.860 decide what happens in this province it's up to the elected premier to do so and she needs to

00:38:08.200 redefine who she is and what she stands for in a way that can unite both coalitions that's

00:38:14.680 absolutely essential here uh you know we talk about if if we vote against the constitution we

00:38:19.880 can take back unemployment insurance uh our case is called ei employment insurance i mean that's

00:38:25.000 a three billion dollar annual transfer out of alberta that is enshrined in section 91 as a

00:38:30.040 federal yeah but that's another one yeah we pay way more in exactly but we gave that away in the

00:38:35.800 constitution the court had previously said that was a provincial jurisdiction so like get rid of

00:38:41.600 the constitution vote against it we can take that back immediately five billion dollars into our

00:38:46.600 health care would make a major difference to us individually that's what people want to know the

00:38:52.380 other thing even if just like ottawa doesn't take the tax money in the first place i think the tax

00:38:56.300 points concept which is something that i don't know if you've discussed on here but it's the

00:39:01.180 idea that the federal government that we have to fund our own health care right we have to provide

00:39:06.580 the services but instead of them taking the 700 million to give us back to 500 million they just

00:39:11.780 don't take the 700 million so the theory is that if the federal government is honoring our

00:39:16.820 jurisdiction entirely in health care that we would have 200 million more to play with and i actually

00:39:21.980 think my numbers are underestimated i think we pay more and like a significant amount more than

00:39:27.180 that then we get back so it's a it's a big issue but yeah no the constitution is the central point

00:39:33.840 here well the way we talked about it was that the way the division of labor is now with the

00:39:39.120 division of powers that frankly nobody understands nobody gets who has what power like the average

00:39:45.140 person in fact a lot of people don't even understand that there is a division of powers

00:39:49.260 they don't make any sense so what we have is in health care is a good example because we send

00:39:55.680 our money to ottawa it gives them the authority to define it but they don't have the responsibility

00:40:02.240 so that they have the spending power they have the spending power which makes no sense i mean

00:40:06.480 if you run a business like you do here you make sure that the person that has the authority has

00:40:12.000 the responsibility and vice versa if you're going to hold that person responsible they need to have

00:40:16.560 the authority to actually conduct it so we hold the province response but this is the most insane

00:40:21.360 thing i've ever seen is we hold the province responsible but we give the authority to the

00:40:26.880 federal government because they're creating western alienation which is how most of us

00:40:32.000 experience the issue western alienation is a it's the result of a constitution that is

00:40:40.640 either completely well i don't want to call it disrespected but

00:40:44.320 But if health care is provincial jurisdiction, then the province should be funding it.

00:40:52.020 It should be fully responsible.

00:40:53.020 It should be fully responsible for it.

00:40:54.360 Have the authority.

00:40:55.160 And we try and make changes to our health care system.

00:40:58.680 And the federal government is telling us that it violates the Canada Health Act.

00:41:02.700 And there's tons of gasoline to pour on lots of constitutional fires.

00:41:06.940 I was pouring alcohol.

00:41:07.680 Yeah, I am replacing it with gasoline.

00:41:10.120 But yeah, there's lots of places we could go talk about all the issues with the Constitution. Judicial supremacy has got in the way of the original Constitution intentions. The Canada Health Act gets in the way of the original. So we've got legislation, we've got judicial supremacy. 0.65

00:41:25.140 And then we get back to this moment in time right now, what we're facing in Alberta and our ability to make change in this country through the process that has started with this very strong independence movement.

00:41:43.700 And Randy, your idea is to at this point in time, as well as go through this process of referendum and whatever comes after, send a letter to the premier and request that she seriously undertake constitutional reform.

00:41:59.800 And to have that be a sort of side campaign or campaign as well as the independence campaign.

00:42:07.280 Yeah. So we actually have the letter on our website.

00:42:10.880 There's a QR code there.

00:42:12.160 You can go there and sign up, put your name on it,

00:42:16.520 and we'll get that letter to the premier.

00:42:18.740 And, you know, the premier is a populist. 0.99

00:42:20.680 She loves the parade that she can get in front of,

00:42:22.660 as Rolf Klein would say.

00:42:24.220 And so what we're trying to do is we're trying to say,

00:42:26.640 look, we need to change the conversation

00:42:28.120 and bring people together.

00:42:31.540 You know, the bulk of the, you know,

00:42:33.380 the 60 to 70% of the population wants to address this issue.

00:42:37.220 Recognize it.

00:42:37.760 They want to address it.

00:42:38.480 let's address that issue and and we're asking the premier to show leadership to get there and what

00:42:44.480 i heard you say josh is that the premier is going to need the support of the people to be able to

00:42:50.300 do that because the bureaucracy is not going to want to do that yeah and i think like yeah it's

00:42:56.440 going to have to come from the people i think though like it has to be something that she wants

00:43:01.120 to do i mean i i think like yeah the we do have to get support for the issue and you have to be

00:43:08.840 able to demonstrate it but i sometimes wonder if it is like my favorite version of danielle smith

00:43:17.560 is the iron lady yeah um when she was standing in the face of everybody in 2022 basically saying 0.99

00:43:25.440 that the alberta sovereignty act was the worst piece of legislation they'd ever seen that it

00:43:30.900 would inflame issues and that we would lose the provincial election over it and she stood there

00:43:35.720 and said no we're not we need to defend our sovereignty and she kept repeating it she did

00:43:39.520 not bend and i just haven't seen that recently uh i don't know if she's i think i mean mark carney

00:43:50.740 has a certain charm to him at least right now uh we'll see what happens after the referendum but

00:43:57.060 But if this, like, the MOU and everything, like, I just, I don't know.

00:44:02.100 Like, I sometimes wonder if it is in her heart of hearts to fix the problem.

00:44:05.680 I want it to be.

00:44:06.820 I want to believe it.

00:44:08.260 But, yeah, she has to do this.

00:44:12.100 And she's got to do it of her, I think it's got to be of her own free will.

00:44:16.120 Absolutely.

00:44:16.880 And all we can do is support her.

00:44:18.880 And by signing the letter, by showing support that, you know, we understand how she started this.

00:44:25.040 We understand what she was trying to accomplish when she started this, but she started it.

00:44:29.380 And so now we've got to finish it.

00:44:30.860 And she's got to show the leadership to finish it.

00:44:34.100 And if she finishes it, the country will be better.

00:44:38.720 You know, I think of the 8% that you said will never be on site.

00:44:42.540 I view that more as a challenge.

00:44:44.120 I think it might be higher than 8%.

00:44:45.420 Well, whatever that number is.

00:44:47.000 But those people, they'll just never agree to that.

00:44:50.080 Why don't we make Canada something that they can be proud of?

00:44:53.060 to be proud of and and i think the iron lady can get us there whether she chooses to do or not i

00:44:59.700 don't know but uh let's do everything we can to to persuade her that yeah her leadership has been

00:45:06.980 good i hope she watches this and i hope that you know but i just there is a if you're trying to

00:45:13.540 convince you're trying to keep this coalition together especially within the party you have

00:45:17.540 to provide that unifying policy that unifying vision of what canada can be what canada should

00:45:25.380 be because the the the version that these people see is one where they don't see themselves

00:45:32.980 reflected in the maple leaf anymore and you have to she has to do that like if you want to be a

00:45:38.980 leader if you want to be the leader of this party you the only way to keep the two factions together

00:45:44.020 is to give people a vision and something to believe in and if you are putting like these

00:45:49.460 issues that we have for lack of a better term tolerated for the last 120 years uh we've seen

00:45:57.600 the constitution yeah you mentioned judicial supremacy like we're dealing with free trade

00:46:01.600 issues across the country free trade is across provinces is enshrined in the constitution it's

00:46:06.620 section 121 like there are so many issues in this document that need to be opened addressed and fixed

00:46:13.600 in a way that is has a certain degree of permanency because we don't fix these issues

00:46:19.640 then as we grow in population relative to the rest of the country and as we grow in economic

00:46:26.380 strength if our power political power within this confederation is not reflected

00:46:32.100 then you will have it's a structural deficiency like i mean we already are underrepresented we

00:46:39.040 are underfunded considering how much we contribute um and there's all of these issues that we have

00:46:45.120 to get addressed because yeah if we don't fix the problem the problem will only get worse if we don't

00:46:50.400 have you know proper representation in ottawa if like if we don't have you know a fiscal transfer

00:46:59.260 system that doesn't rob us blind every time we pay our taxes yeah there is a deal in which these

00:47:07.500 people can say yeah that's a canada i want to live in yep and those are the people that you have to

00:47:12.300 give a reason to believe and i don't i think the issue that she had the biggest issue that she has

00:47:18.540 right now is that people are looking at the ucp and they aren't seeing that vision they aren't

00:47:23.740 seeing that they're seeing you know they're both on two sides of the coin and they're

00:47:29.820 divided by this referendum and how do you how do you put the genie back in the bottle after one

00:47:36.060 side loses and the other side is championing canada as if it's got this like it's it's not

00:47:44.060 it's far from perfect it's far from perfect josh you said two things that are very important to me

00:47:49.100 and one is is what is the vision and then the next episode we're going to propose a vision for

00:47:55.020 alberta in canada uh we call it how do we unify alberta to create a better canada fixed to fix

00:48:02.780 canada and so we're going to lay that uh that vision out at the next episode whether it's right

00:48:07.980 or wrong i don't know but at least it's a vision and we can adjust from there but what i do believe

00:48:13.020 is that this is an unprecedented opportunity to get our foundations right if you build a house

00:48:19.180 on bad foundations that house isn't going to survive and and our foundations need to be fixed

00:48:26.060 and and but if we build them right we can have an incredible house and that's what you're talking

00:48:31.500 about there's something that we can all be proud of and say and and and i want to lean heavily

00:48:36.300 into the alberta activist community because they're the ones that are driving this and they're

00:48:40.860 the ones that are saying we you know we need to fix this and uh and and there's one option we

00:48:45.660 were talking about and that's the independence movement but there's other options and we need to

00:48:50.300 explore those other options and again i think that what we need our iron lady to do is to say

00:48:57.820 here's why we entered this here's what we're going to get out of it here's how i'm going

00:49:02.460 to help the people solve the problem here is how i'm going to support british columbia to come to

00:49:07.980 the table saskatchewan manitoba and then put something on the table for all of the country

00:49:13.980 and i contest we can make a better world of it josh thank you very much for coming today

00:49:19.340 thanks for having me appreciate it thanks josh yeah okay

00:49:21.660 the action plan is to separate the issue of western alienation and independence we do this

00:49:33.340 by addressing the constitution we will forge an alliance across western provinces by taking on

00:49:40.540 each other's issues and there's an opportunity to propose an updated and modernized constitution

00:49:47.340 so that at long last, the West can actually get in. This is a Nation of People. Go to our website,

00:49:53.900 nationofpeople.com, sign up to put your name on the letter to the Premier, to ask her to reach

00:49:59.580 out to her partners, our partners in the West, and lead us into a constitutional recreation.

00:50:08.220 And join us in the coming episodes to talk with guests and explore the law of unexpected consequences.

00:50:13.740 See you then.

Western Standard - October 10, 2026

Can Alberta unite to fix Canada？

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