Western Standard - Can Canada be defended at all？

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standards viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show

00:00:21.480 of the Western Standard. It is Thursday, February the 12th. My guest this week is Roy Rempel,

00:00:26.860 And our subject is national defense, as Mr. Carney sees it.

00:00:33.000 Full disclosure, Roy and I served together in the Harper Prime Minister's office for several years,

00:00:38.100 where he was policy advisor on defense.

00:00:43.080 Miss speechwriting was the better for his advice, I should tell you.

00:00:47.200 Roy, welcome to the show.

00:00:49.240 Thanks, very nice to be here.

00:00:51.200 Well, good to have you.

00:00:53.140 Over the last six months, Roy, Prime Minister Carney has said a lot of things that I think

00:00:58.380 we could both agree with about national defense, which may be a bit of a surprise to those

00:01:04.020 watching this show. But we would think that. He has made several references to strengthening

00:01:09.220 Canada's capabilities, our ongoing commitments to NATO, and raising spending significantly,

00:01:17.520 significantly, by looking at the numbers here, doubling it by 2030, in fact. But is any of this

00:01:24.060 credible, or is this just talk? The Canadian Armed Forces is way under strength, so he is starting

00:01:31.800 from behind. People are actually leaving because they don't like the feminization and the disrespect

00:01:38.440 for the warrior culture that's been handed down as government policy for the last few years.

00:01:43.500 And as you found in your tenure under Mr. Harper, even with a prime minister who is highly sympathetic to the military corps, it's hard to buy equipment.

00:01:55.880 Now, assuming Mr. Carney is sincere, is what he says he wants to do possible?

00:02:03.440 Well, I think some of it, you know, you're talking about sort of credibility.

00:02:06.640 I think some of it is credible, particularly some of the immediate measures to stop the bleeding within the Canadian defence establishment.

00:02:19.760 You know, of the $9 billion that Mr. Carney announced last year, about $2.6 billion of that is for pay.

00:02:27.780 And that's particularly vital because, you know, we've had a situation particularly, well, for the last 10 years, the Department of National Defense has not met its recruiting targets.

00:02:40.640 One of the factors is pay.

00:02:42.320 So there are measures to increase pay significantly in order to address particularly the retention issue and the ability to attract people.

00:02:55.660 um you know there's things money for health for improved health benefits there's money for repair

00:03:03.420 and maintenance of equipment which is particularly important because some of our equipment is very

00:03:07.960 old uh the um the halifax class frigates are in the range of about 30 years old uh the victoria

00:03:16.040 class submarines are in the range of 35 years old and uh the cf-18s are as much as 40 to 45 years

00:03:23.060 old so you're going to need money in order to uh just maintain a certain level of uh capability

00:03:32.500 and to stop the bleeding you may recall former um defense minister uh bill blair talked about the

00:03:40.980 canadian armed forces being in a death spiral and that's very much the case even uh this year the

00:03:46.900 The commander of the Pacific Fleet, Admiral Patchell, said that the Navy is about one quarter under its authorized strength level, and it's short about 1,000 Marine technicians.

00:04:02.240 The Auditor General talked about serious shortages of pilots and aircraft technicians.

00:04:09.900 So pay is one way to address that.

00:04:12.960 And it's probably been long overdue.

00:04:15.600 well it has been long overdue and so those elements in what Mr. Carney is talking about

00:04:22.400 and in a different approach by the current liberal government over the previous liberal

00:04:27.720 government that that is credible I would say you know in the long term if what Mr. Carney said at

00:04:34.980 Davos is what he actually believes is that you know we are now in a world of predatory great

00:04:42.380 powers, great powers that don't believe in the current international order. And I think there's

00:04:47.320 considerable evidence for that. Well, then it's going to require an enormous effort and it's going

00:04:52.420 to have to start with a clear defense strategy, a clear identification of threats and a clear

00:04:59.440 identification of what we can count on our allies for and what we can't count our allies for. And

00:05:05.160 filling that gap of what we can't count on our allies for could be, well, is likely to be an

00:05:11.200 extremely large undertaking. Well, certainly pay is vital. I don't think anybody begrudges

00:05:22.840 the troops getting a pay raise. I understand that comparatively speaking is pretty low

00:05:27.440 what they've been receiving. So that is good. But do you think that men and women actually

00:05:32.840 join the armed forces for the sake of the money in any case? Isn't there something more driving

00:05:39.160 them a sense of national obligation maybe a lust for adventure maybe a number of things like that

00:05:46.040 but everything that's sort of subsumed in the two words warrior culture uh the the warrior culture

00:05:53.960 has been under considerable pressure in the last few years symbolized i think in everybody's minds

00:06:00.360 by the tampons in the men's washroom because lord knows well who knows do you think that that's

00:06:07.400 actually what drives people to serve is a sense of duty and honor and if so do you think mr carney

00:06:15.800 has any real sense of that that he would emphasize that how is dei going to do with mr carney at the

00:06:25.160 helm well i think that is part of the challenge in the sense that what what the prime minister

00:06:30.360 has said so far is very high level um he's talked about a new world order uh and he's talked about

00:06:37.560 the need to adjust to that new world order um but if you look at the details of what is actually

00:06:45.720 occurring you know i've sort of looked at some of the equipment purchases over the past um

00:06:51.720 over the past year or so and uh we bought high mars uh multiple launch rockets from the united

00:06:58.360 States. We bought new army tactical vehicles from the United States just yesterday. The government

00:07:05.900 quietly indicated that it was buying long lead items for another 14 F-35 aircraft in addition

00:07:13.480 to the 16 we're already contracted for. So that's obviously notwithstanding the review

00:07:18.840 of the F-35 purchase. So it seems like if you look at what they're actually doing,

00:07:25.340 the prime minister is talking about diversification but what they actually seem to be doing is uh

00:07:31.500 continuing with a lot of the same old same patterns of equipment purchases and i think

00:07:39.580 that's really where the details are going to have to start to match the rhetoric otherwise the

00:07:44.140 rhetoric is going to look particularly empty and when you're talking about um personnel policies

00:07:51.260 like you know you've mentioned um we've had very little about you know the if you're going to buy

00:07:59.740 all this equipment we're talking about buying 12 submarines we're talking about buying new corvettes

00:08:04.380 in the future well you actually have people have to have people to crew them so your personnel

00:08:08.700 policy has to match your procurement policy and so far i see very little political attention

00:08:14.540 being paid to that sort of level of detail.

00:08:19.620 And what we do know, if you look at recruitment policy over the past 10 years, is that it hasn't worked.

00:08:24.620 It's been very focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion, but it hasn't actually worked.

00:08:32.600 We haven't met a single recruitment target in the past 10 years.

00:08:35.380 Now, last year, they're saying that things have started to pick up.

00:08:39.440 but the hole that we've dug for ourselves,

00:08:42.400 the death spiral that former minister

00:08:45.960 Bill Blair talked about is still there.

00:08:48.360 So the DND, I'll put it to you,

00:08:51.060 the DND needs to drop the DEI.

00:08:53.940 Agree, disagree.

00:08:57.720 Well, I think that, you know,

00:09:00.760 there should be only two priorities.

00:09:02.060 If we're really living in the world

00:09:03.880 that the prime minister is talking about,

00:09:05.040 there should be two priorities in terms of recruitment.

00:09:07.480 The operational needs of the Canadian Armed Forces

00:09:09.440 and merit. Who can make the operational needs? If you look at all the various other recruitment

00:09:15.820 objectives, 25.1% females, I'm not sure why it's 0.1% requires that level of precision. We're

00:09:24.180 nowhere close to meeting those kinds of targets that have been set, and they were set a decade

00:09:27.540 ago. We're at about 18%. So despite strenuous efforts, I think you can say the current policy

00:09:32.880 is not working. If you want an armed forces that's going to be effective, you have to focus on two

00:09:38.180 things the operational needs of the armed forces and the people required to fill those needs

00:09:44.260 that should be pretty much about it but it's going to be cycle it's going to be very difficult for

00:09:48.260 them to abandon policies that they are so highly committed to i i don't see any indication that

00:09:54.580 there's any willingness to do that at all quite frankly well maybe they should have a chat with

00:10:01.220 Pete Hexeth. I want to take you back to what you said about the F-35 purchase. That first

00:10:08.920 tranche of 16 jets, when are they supposed to arrive? I believe deliveries are supposed to

00:10:18.380 start in the next few years, but in the next year or two, really. But if you're talking about,

00:10:24.440 you know, first aircraft being delivered, that doesn't necessarily translate into a capability.

00:10:29.220 And if you're talking about real capabilities, then you're talking a few more years down the road. I think they're sort of setting the objective of the early 2030s to stand up a real capability and finally phase out the CFA teams. But again, you're going to need to address what the Auditor General talked about in terms of pilot shortages and technician shortages. So again, your personnel policy has to match your procurement objectives.

00:10:56.100 There's been much discussion, Roy, about the possibility of the Swedish Griffin fighter being considered as a main replacement.

00:11:05.040 But it strikes me that they're not going to want to run a mixed fleet.

00:11:07.740 So once we start receiving F-35s at all, it's not like we're going to get 16 F-35s and then fill out the inventory with something else.

00:11:17.320 so is that a reason am i right to say that if they take delivery of the first one they're going to

00:11:24.080 take delivery of all of them uh that's not clear yet from the uh review it's supposed to be a

00:11:31.640 review you know are we going to have a mixed fleet are we going to have all f-35s or are we going to

00:11:35.760 switch to something else like the like the griffin fighter um i think what's been indicated yesterday

00:11:41.960 is really the the rcaf and the dnd really do want the f-35 which is why they're putting money into

00:11:48.540 the long lead items so that's clear the direction that dnd wants to go uh whether uh you know the

00:11:55.200 government is going to be prepared to do that i suspect they're maybe holding it as part of a

00:11:58.920 broader uh negotiation with the united states on trade issues and so on you know we'll move forward

00:12:05.360 with some of these defense acquisition with the defense acquisition like the f-35 if we get some

00:12:10.040 movement on trade issues i don't know but i suspect i think it's mostly a bargaining chip

00:12:14.760 that mr carney is using and we're almost certainly going to stick with the f-35 i'd be very surprised

00:12:20.220 if we didn't because that would be a major change in our defense relationship with the united states

00:12:25.540 so why is it so hard to buy equipment i want to just insert an anecdote that will undoubtedly be

00:12:33.520 familiar to you, and that is that when we had forces deployed in Afghanistan, they were

00:12:41.320 getting blown up as they drove the roads because the other side would plant an explosive device

00:12:48.640 in the culvert, or a LAV would drive over it, and they'd press the button, people would

00:12:53.820 be killed, the vehicle damaged.

00:12:55.760 So we really needed helicopters to get around, but we couldn't get any somehow.

00:13:00.440 And it was only when we worked out a deal with the Americans to pick up six of their hard-worked helicopters in theater,

00:13:11.040 and then the RCAF technicians made a heroic attempt, a successful attempt, to get these things flying and reliable.

00:13:21.620 Only when we did that did we actually have helicopter in capability in Afghanistan, and that's when there was a war on.

00:13:28.240 In peacetime, it seems to be incredibly difficult to buy equipment.

00:13:33.520 Why is that?

00:13:35.200 Well, you have a very cumbersome procurement process, as the previous government, our government, found.

00:13:41.580 You have a military which is focused on getting the best equipment.

00:13:45.920 You have a finance department that's interested in keeping costs down.

00:13:50.740 You have Industry Canada, whatever the current iteration of that is now.

00:13:58.240 but Industry Canada in our day who are interested in getting the maximum industrial benefits.

00:14:05.560 That process can become extremely laborious and very, very long term.

00:14:11.020 And I think in Afghanistan, we just didn't have the time to go through those procurement process.

00:14:16.100 So we just started buying equipment very much off the shelf as rapidly as possible,

00:14:20.600 not just for the mission in Afghanistan, but also address pressing needs in Canada,

00:14:24.920 such as, you know, procurement of tactical transport aircraft and so on.

00:14:31.100 So, you know, we just simply went to buying off the shelf and buying very quickly

00:14:35.140 because in Afghanistan it was an urgent need where we had slipped far behind

00:14:39.040 the capability that was required to sustain that mission.

00:14:42.460 And I think it is something that the current government is going to have to look at now.

00:14:46.520 You know, if you're really talking about the buildup that they're talking about,

00:14:50.700 you know you're going to have to move very quickly and at a speed level that we're not

00:14:57.260 accustomed to at all for instance in acquiring the submarines for instance which are you know

00:15:03.800 you talk about acquiring the submarines but they're probably a decade maybe even a decade

00:15:07.120 and a half down the road in terms of actually seeing them delivered simply because foreign yards

00:15:13.580 you know are also there's a lot of orders for foreign yards so it's not easy to get in the

00:15:19.500 procurement pipeline. So you're gonna have to move very fast at a speed that we're not used to.

00:15:25.280 So here again, you know, we have these big aspirations, but you need to actually have

00:15:31.180 policies in place that are going to A, get the stuff bought quickly, and then B, have the

00:15:37.560 personnel there to actually run the equipment when it's being delivered. And we have massive

00:15:45.200 shortages in personnel right now. Now, I seem to recall reading that Mr. Carney has established

00:15:53.280 a fast-track office for the purpose of defense procurement. If he was prepared to take

00:16:02.000 a question from the Western Standard, I would want to ask him, what difference is this going

00:16:07.360 to make? Whose toes are you prepared to step on in Industry Canada or in finance, for that matter,

00:16:14.780 in the armed forces themselves in order to get this done.

00:16:18.900 Do you have any reservations about a fast-track office for military procurement?

00:16:27.180 No, but I think here, again, the sort of dilemma confronting defense is the dilemma we're facing

00:16:35.260 across the board with respect to, for instance, getting energy corridors built.

00:16:41.020 we're going to have to move at a pace

00:16:43.280 that we're not

00:16:45.280 accustomed to and so far I see very little

00:16:47.220 evidence that we are prepared

00:16:49.020 to move at that pace

00:16:50.480 you know there are all sorts of

00:16:53.200 challenges that are going to emerge that

00:16:55.020 the current government isn't even

00:16:56.560 fully aware of yet

00:16:59.280 so

00:17:00.360 you know and we found that when we

00:17:03.280 launched the national shipbuilding strategy back

00:17:05.200 in 2010

00:17:05.720 pardon me

00:17:07.160 so what

00:17:10.900 uh what kind of unforeseen challenges might emerge well they're talking about um you know

00:17:18.820 uh building up canadian industry to deliver the types of capabilities that canada requires

00:17:24.660 a very canada canadian industry focused um strategy that's very important but we can't under

00:17:33.300 underestimate the complexities of actually doing that and i think you know our government found

00:17:37.940 that out when we launched the national shipbuilding strategy which is rolling out ships today but that

00:17:43.540 national shipbuilding strategy was launched in 2010 we found it was incredibly complex to

00:17:50.820 modernize our existing shipbuilding in canada to get the infrastructure in place in halifax

00:17:58.020 in british columbia and um the the timelines that we had initially set proved very difficult to meet

00:18:08.580 so uh if you're now talking about doing that sort of across the board in terms of defense

00:18:14.100 procurement you're looking at a massive undertaking that is really going to have to

00:18:20.100 to have a government with will to cut through red tape,

00:18:24.140 to have a very hands-on, detailed management

00:18:29.460 of day-to-day procurement challenges,

00:18:32.420 and to simply override obstacles when they emerge.

00:18:38.360 And I think a defense industrial strategy,

00:18:42.920 I understand, is going to be launched today

00:18:45.780 as we're talking, and that's what I'd be looking for in there.

00:18:48.780 what extent are they uh looking at you know the management challenges and the measures that are

00:18:55.820 in place to actually speed up the process uh in a marked way and we'll have to look for that in

00:19:02.140 today's announcement i think okay so yeah roy i'd like you now to take you to what mr carney said

00:19:11.660 about defense in davos uh i think it's generally acknowledged that mr harper our guy was the only

00:19:18.300 Prime Minister spend much time in the Arctic. Since 2016, when the Liberals came to power,

00:19:26.860 they've not gone there very much at all. So, not north of the Arctic Circle.

00:19:33.100 But Mr. Carney had this to say at Davos. He says, so we're working with our NATO allies,

00:19:39.660 including the Nordic Baltic Eight, to further secure the Alliance's northern and western flanks,

00:19:46.380 including through Canada's unprecedented investments in over-the-horizon radar and

00:19:55.060 submarines and aircraft and boots on the ground. Now, we've just said, or you've just said,

00:20:02.620 that the submarines and the aircraft are a long way off in the distance and that they've got a

00:20:07.720 serious issue with recruitment. So I have to ask you, without being partisan, was Mr. Carney really

00:20:17.700 making any sense? We don't even shoot down Chinese weather balloons, but he is talking about securing

00:20:24.480 the northern flank. What do you say? Is he knowing us? Well, I think some of the things

00:20:33.320 that have been announced are important, like over-the-horizon radars. But again, you look

00:20:37.060 the delivery timeline you're looking at the early 2030s and that was announced a few years ago

00:20:40.900 already so and that's that's very much short and medium term in a lot of ways because that's about

00:20:46.820 the same time that we would have the f-35s coming online if we switch to the grippen well or the

00:20:51.860 griffin that's going to be that's going to be a gripping that's going to be a uh that's going to

00:20:58.100 be another uh delay probably as we switch to a new fighter aircraft um if you're talking about

00:21:05.380 the submarines well the submarines are not going to be arctic capable really because they're not

00:21:09.220 going to be nuclear power and then to operate in the arctic you really need a nuclear capability

00:21:14.340 so it's maybe going to be more on the fringes of the ice uh and and there you're talking about as

00:21:21.300 i mentioned i think at least 10 to 15 years down the road as in what sense do you think mr carney

00:21:28.900 means to secure the northern flank well again i'm not sure that they've gotten into that level of

00:21:34.500 detail to be quite honest i think there are a lot of aspirational uh statements that have been made

00:21:41.780 but the actual policy and heart procurement and uh personnel uh improve improvement of the personnel

00:21:50.660 situation that's all going to have to catch up with the aspirations and i think they're going

00:21:56.980 to find that the challenges are far more monumental than they uh have anticipated the

00:22:03.460 The capabilities that we have in the Arctic now are basically capabilities that the Harper government initiated back in, you know, the period prior to 2015.

00:22:12.680 That's how long it takes to bring systems online.

00:22:15.820 I mean, we launched the NanoCivic naval refueling port.

00:22:20.720 That's still not fully operational.

00:22:23.140 You know, the Arctic offshore patrol ships, those that's really a peacetime sovereignty protection capability, again, launched in the Harper years.

00:22:30.640 Those are just sort of coming online right now.

00:22:33.340 if we can find the people to crew them then you could say we will have sort of a peacetime

00:22:37.260 sovereignty protection capability but in terms of actual hard defense capability that's going to be

00:22:44.060 uh that's a much longer time frame and quite frankly it's why the americans are very frustrated

00:22:50.220 with us um because you know we are flying 40 to 45 year old uh cf-18 fighter aircraft and uh it's

00:22:59.580 it's going to be a while before we have capabilities that are, you know,

00:23:03.260 sort of fit the 21st century.

00:23:06.000 So there's a lot of work to do that the government simply hasn't really got to yet.

00:23:14.720 And we'll see what the defense industrial strategy says today in terms of, you know,

00:23:19.740 are they actually getting into these detailed challenges?

00:23:23.960 Well, Roy, I so wanted to believe, obviously I'm not a liberal,

00:23:28.440 but on when it comes to national defense uh i i was hoping that the prime minister actually had

00:23:34.120 something substantive to offer here kind of doesn't really look like it does it look thank

00:23:42.200 you for coming on the program i really appreciate it it's great to see you again there at the uh

00:23:48.200 the harper events last week and uh we'll have you back again when there's more to talk about roy if

00:23:55.400 if you're willing to come.

00:23:57.000 I'd be very, very honored to be back on the show.

00:24:00.560 For that Western Standard, I'm Nigel Haniford.

Western Standard - February 13, 2026

Can Canada be defended at all？

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