Western Standard - Can Carney make the tough calls？ Some say not...

00:00:00.000 China's killing our canola, $45 billion gone, Western farmers bleed, Mark Carney, silent,

00:00:13.500 made millions off Beijing's dime, he won't fight, he's Beijing's banker, not our prime minister.

00:00:30.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaport, a weekly politics show

00:00:48.500 of the Western Standard. It's Thursday, April the 3rd, and we're 12 days into a 35-day election

00:00:55.580 campaign. With me today to talk about it are Yaroslav Baran and Balkan Devlin. Yaroslav is

00:01:02.300 the co-founder of the Pendulum Group, and in a past life he was communications director to PM

00:01:07.980 Stephen Harper. He led party communications through three national election campaigns.

00:01:14.460 Balkan Devlin is co-lead at Pendulum's geopolitical advisory practice. Newby on the show,

00:01:21.740 welcome to you both. Welcome, Balkan. Glad you're with us. Thanks for having me. Good to be here.

00:01:27.760 All right. Look, let's get right to it. We want to talk about two things today,

00:01:31.840 tariffs, and whether you can place any faith in the polls we're seeing.

00:01:37.040 Yaroslav, yesterday, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries,

00:01:42.240 but Canada was not one of them. On the other hand, there are some tariffs that are in place

00:01:46.700 for the benefit of people who've lost the thread

00:01:50.040 and nobody can be blamed for losing the thread on this one.

00:01:54.900 Where do we stand with tariffs?

00:01:57.580 All right, so where we are right now, and you're right, Nigel,

00:02:00.500 there was nothing new announced yesterday vis-à-vis Canada.

00:02:04.920 There's a long list of countries at different tariff rates.

00:02:09.620 Canada was not on that list for anything new,

00:02:14.000 but there are existing tariffs.

00:02:15.140 There's already the 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum that had been previously announced.

00:02:21.340 There's also the 25% auto tariff that had previously been announced but came into effect today at midnight this morning.

00:02:31.400 And finally, there's the 25% tariff, the so-called fentanyl tariffs for non-KUSMA compliant trade.

00:02:44.640 So only 38% of Canada-U.S. trade, or at least of Canadian exports going to the states, are designated under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

00:02:56.260 So everything outside that 38% is under tariff right now.

00:03:01.520 Okay, well, actually, maybe that's not quite as bad as we thought.

00:03:06.920 Are we right to be sort of thinking, well, at least we dodged a bullet?

00:03:12.820 Look, I would argue that if over 60% of our current exports go into the states are already under 25% tariff, that's already pretty bad.

00:03:25.520 I mean, yeah, you can argue that it didn't get any worse yesterday, but it's already a pretty bad situation.

00:03:29.740 And we're already starting to see things like this morning in Windsor, Stellantis already announced that they're pausing their auto assembly plant that employs 3,600 people.

00:03:42.820 I mean, mind you, they're also pausing, they're also laying off some 900 workers in American plants that supply the Windsor plant for automobiles to be assembled there.

00:03:53.960 So it's having an immediate impact on real people.

00:03:56.840 All right. Now, I want to turn to you, Balkan, and just ask you about the significance of the phone call that President Trump had with Mark Carney about a week ago now.

00:04:10.700 And he issued a statement on Truth Social afterwards where he said that he, Trump, and Carney would sort things out after the election.

00:04:23.460 That's a paraphrase, not a direct quote, but there seemed to be a strong expectation upon the president's part that it would be Mr. Carney that he was dealing with.

00:04:32.580 Do you make anything of that, or was that just the president being the president, and

00:04:39.380 was this a little bit of a kiss of death for Mr. Carney that he seemed to enjoy such confidence

00:04:46.000 from President Trump?

00:04:48.360 Well, I think it can be interpreted either way, but I think what it really signifies

00:04:53.800 and signals the importance of the personal relationships for Donald Trump.

00:04:58.880 I mean, if you remember, he keeps calling Justin Trudeau Governor Trudeau, but then went and called Carney as Prime Minister Carney.

00:05:08.020 One of the reasons is, of course, his very well-known dislike of Trudeau.

00:05:13.140 So I think one lesson that we need to sort of take out of this, whether it's Carney or Pierre Poliev, that ends up being the prime minister, the importance of having a personal relationship with Donald Trump.

00:05:25.660 And we saw this in his first term, for example, under the former Japanese Prime Minister Abe, who developed a very strong personal relationship with Trump and navigate that first term quite successfully.

00:05:39.220 So beyond that, I wouldn't necessarily read much into Trump's tweets and social posts.

00:05:48.780 Okay, well, let's just move.

00:05:51.680 Sorry, did you want to comment on that, Yersov?

00:05:53.420 Well, hey, I'll just add very briefly, Nigel, that it does reflect a very significant change in tone. Mr. Trump was rather belittling of Trudeau. You could read it in his words and in his body language and in his dismissive attitude towards Mr. Trudeau that he didn't like the guy.

00:06:15.100 You could tell he didn't like the guy.

00:06:17.480 Here, there appears to have been a reset of the relationship.

00:06:20.840 He's no longer being overtly insulting when referring to Mr. Carney.

00:06:25.040 So that at least is a step forward for Canada.

00:06:28.120 Well, that's kind of an interesting comment, actually, because most people who are, you know, obviously the conservatives are attacking Carney.

00:06:34.440 But he seems, and maybe this bears on what we're going to be talking about later when we come to the polls and whether they can be taken seriously or not.

00:06:42.600 But if President Trump takes Carney seriously, he knows what he's doing.

00:06:48.320 He is giving Mr. Carney something of an endorsement by being at least that respectful.

00:06:58.320 Is that intentional?

00:07:00.320 Does he really want to have Mr. Carney?

00:07:02.440 He said he would rather deal with liberals.

00:07:04.780 What does that mean?

00:07:07.420 I mean, I would say Yaroslav can actually comment on the polling side

00:07:11.200 how that reflects on people's views on Carney. But I would say that there seems to be a tendency

00:07:17.680 within Trump administration, Trump himself, to be more confrontational with center-right and

00:07:23.920 conservative leaders that are not necessarily towing the line with Trump. So I'm not surprised

00:07:30.000 that he sees Pierre Polyev as a tougher leader to deal with and would rather have someone he can

00:07:38.240 go and blame on every other issue, including on social and other issues, instead of having to

00:07:45.200 confront with a principled conservative leader that can stand up.

00:07:49.040 Paul Jay Interesting, interesting comment. Look, there's been a lot of tough talk from anybody

00:07:55.040 looking for votes, whether it was Doug Ford in Ontario at his recent election. And now, of course,

00:08:00.480 Mr. Poilier for the Conservatives has taken a very strong line and just this morning had some

00:08:10.000 very realistic suggestions about how they might proceed, offering GST freedom if you buy a car

00:08:18.420 that's made in Canada, but generally taking a tough line with President Trump. Well, of course,

00:08:26.200 Mr. Carney does the same thing. But in the end, is any of the tough talk realistic? Is it possible

00:08:32.860 for Canada to be a separate economy from the United States of America?

00:08:42.580 Go ahead, Balkin.

00:08:46.180 The frank answer is not at a reasonable cost.

00:08:49.900 trade as geography is not destiny, perhaps, but it is 80% of destiny when it comes to trade.

00:08:57.700 And we are located where we are. Our production systems, our whole trade system is oriented

00:09:05.740 towards reaching the biggest market than ourselves. So can we aim for an economic

00:09:14.620 Autarky, unlikely, at the risk of completely decimating our popularity.

00:09:23.320 And we saw this.

00:09:24.560 We have a bunch of free trade agreements with Europe and Indo-Pacific partners.

00:09:29.040 It only budges a little bit of the trade we do.

00:09:32.660 And Canada has been moved from a nation of traders to a trading nation.

00:09:38.120 50% of what we produce and services and other things is sold outside.

00:09:44.080 So it is important for us to continue to do that. But we are where we are. And one of the reasons

00:09:50.580 why I think we should keep calm and keep on and think carefully about how to respond to this

00:09:57.100 changing trade policy and broader foreign policy from Trump is to recognize that reducing 80% of

00:10:04.880 our exports to 75% to the United States will make only a dent in how we secure our prosperity.

00:10:13.020 well you know i i have friends who aren't economists and uh you know they they say things

00:10:20.460 like uh and and actually i think uh to some degree mr polyarthur said the same thing you know this

00:10:26.780 kind of canada ought to be the richest country and in the world we got everything we need we got uh

00:10:33.020 we got energy we've got raw materials we've got food we've got fisheries you know why it's the old

00:10:41.900 argument for autarky. If you've got everything you need, do you need to trade? Obviously,

00:10:48.400 it's good if you can. It increases your wealth. But, Yaroslav, how would you answer those people

00:10:55.020 who are saying, well, look, if the Americans don't want us, we'll just do our own thing and

00:10:59.440 we'll build a separate economy right here in Canada? Yeah, look, we can ease off the United

00:11:04.460 States. And look, no matter what happens, no matter how this plays out, we are going to see

00:11:09.380 greater trade uh diversification in canada you know even if all of this gets sorted out and we

00:11:15.680 manage to you know minimize the tariff thread or or even carve things out it's kind of like being

00:11:20.660 bit by a dog you know you don't forget it you could be okay with dogs 10 years later 20 years

00:11:26.800 later you know how to handle them but you're never going to forget that bite and that's really what

00:11:30.720 happened here it's it's a sense of trust that's been or or betrayal that's going to linger and

00:11:36.520 prudence will dictate that any future Canadian government not put all of its trade eggs into a

00:11:42.780 single basket. And look, Canada's never, never had an autarkic economy. You know, when this country

00:11:48.280 was first founded, it was really a natural resources appendage of the bigger British

00:11:56.200 empire economy. And as time went on, we shifted more and more for obvious reasons, geography,

00:12:02.580 size of market, and we reoriented towards the United States. But what happened in 1931,

00:12:08.920 the last time that we saw major tariffs suddenly imposed by the United States? Well, the Canadian 0.54

00:12:14.280 government imposed retaliatory or reciprocal tariffs in response to America and dropped tariffs

00:12:22.580 back towards that original trading partner, Great Britain. So we've always been connected to some

00:12:30.500 larger economy. That's a function of our size and the kind of stuff that we do.

00:12:34.500 We've got tons of lumber. We've got tons of wheat. There's all kinds of

00:12:38.520 stuff we have in spades, but we don't have everything. We don't have a whole bunch of oranges

00:12:42.400 growing in southern Alberta, for example.

00:12:45.920 If the Canadian citizenry wants to continue to have access to

00:12:49.980 everything that our consumers are accustomed to,

00:12:54.080 we are going to have to be a trading country. It's just a question of how we map those relationships.

00:12:58.480 Oil for oranges. Is that the deal? Yeah. Okay. Look, changing tack slightly for a moment,

00:13:07.260 but coming back to this, I thought Mr. Carney's failure to drop Paul Chang was very revealing

00:13:13.380 about his judgment as a party leader. Now, obviously, Mr. Chang withdrew on his own,

00:13:18.280 or perhaps after he had been approached by a party operative and said, you know, sir,

00:13:23.020 you really need to drop out. However it happened, Chang is gone, but it was not Mr. Carney who

00:13:30.060 told him to go. In fact, he stonewalled. He just said the man had served honorably for 25 years

00:13:38.260 as a police officer. He continued to enjoy Mr. Carney's confidence, so no more questions.

00:13:47.000 I thought that was very revealing about his judgment as a party leader,

00:13:51.280 but then it was pointed out to me that it could also be considered revealing about his commitment

00:13:58.260 and connections to China. Yaroslav, how say you? Oh, I say this. These kinds of situations are

00:14:07.340 a test of leadership. No party leader wants to dump a candidate. It's embarrassing, frankly,

00:14:12.120 and you want to try to avoid it whenever you can. But on day one of this controversy,

00:14:19.300 I was getting texts from reporters saying,

00:14:22.700 hey, Yaroslav, what do you think?

00:14:24.020 Is he gone today or do you think he can make it to tomorrow

00:14:27.220 or two days from now?

00:14:29.680 Any veteran campaign watcher knew right away,

00:14:33.280 based on the substance of the remarks,

00:14:35.180 that this is not going to, this can only end one way.

00:14:39.500 This guy cannot be a candidate whose name can't be on the ballot by E-Day.

00:14:43.700 It's just a question of how long they limp along.

00:14:46.860 Mr. Carney had an opportunity to take decisive action to show leadership and to show principle

00:14:51.920 and frankly Canadian values by making his decision on day one, I'm the leader, these

00:14:58.960 comments do not or these actions do not reflect my values or the value of my party, this guy's

00:15:03.480 not going to be a candidate under me.

00:15:05.380 He didn't do that.

00:15:06.760 He thought he could ride it out.

00:15:08.480 That shows to me that he is not as seasoned a campaigner as one would ideally like to

00:15:14.080 see um on the uh on on the front ticket and uh he also lost three days of of policy roll-up he

00:15:24.160 he had a 25 billion dollar housing announcement that barely got any press because the only thing

00:15:31.540 the journalists were interested in talking talking to him about was how on earth can you still

00:15:35.820 continue to support this candidate look and the conservatives are not immune to this the

00:15:40.160 Conservatives have also had to dump a couple of candidates.

00:15:44.080 But in contrast, Mr. Paulyov was immediately decisive.

00:15:48.040 As soon as something came to light that he thought would be problematic,

00:15:50.780 nope, done, boom, you're not a candidate anymore.

00:15:54.340 And he didn't skip a beat.

00:15:55.620 He went to his next rally two hours later, and he was on message,

00:15:59.280 and it didn't throw him off his game.

00:16:01.720 So, welcome back to you on this.

00:16:04.360 We learned today that only weeks before seeking the liberal leadership,

00:16:07.660 Mark Carney lobbied Beijing's mayor to deepen cooperation. That's in quotes,

00:16:14.260 deepen cooperation, according to official Chinese records. Now, should we be concerned that if

00:16:21.340 things stay sour with the United States, Mr. Carney's backup plan is to do more business with 0.53

00:16:27.680 China? What do you think? That would be a terrible mistake if that's the plan. It's, you know, 1.00

00:16:33.380 jumping, you know, from frying pan to the fire situation.

00:16:37.920 And if we think, and if Carney thinks, you know,

00:16:40.600 getting in bed with the Chinese Communist Party is going to be the salvation, 0.99

00:16:45.980 I think that would be one of the biggest mistakes that Canada can do.

00:16:51.440 Unfortunately, you know, given his previous dealings,

00:16:56.380 both in his role as a banker and a manager for Brookfield and others. My concern is that

00:17:06.620 Carney and liberals would want to try to pivot towards China. And this is basically cutting

00:17:13.020 your nose just by your face. So it would be a big mistake. And I would be very much concerned about

00:17:19.740 his ability to make tough choices. As Yaroslav pointed out, this was supposed to be a very,

00:17:25.020 very easy call um i mean there's nothing uh you know ambiguous about this particular situation

00:17:31.660 the the the deadline for candidates are not you know over i'm sure they could easily at that point

00:17:36.940 find uh another candidate for that particular writing and he couldn't make that particular call

00:17:41.820 um and i'm i'm i'm starting to wonder and being skeptical about when he has to face uh making

00:17:47.020 tougher choices when you're in with donald trump will kind of be able to take those tough calls

00:17:51.660 but rather than being defensive and try to stonewall the issues as he did.

00:17:58.260 Well, let's switch gears now and talk about the polls.

00:18:01.260 The polls consistently show the liberals ahead these days.

00:18:05.440 I think it's a complete surprise.

00:18:07.920 And it seems, I'm going to say it seems inexplicable to me

00:18:11.240 because Pierre Polyev draws crowds by the thousands

00:18:14.640 and he does it time after time after time.

00:18:17.040 He fills ballrooms, auditoriums.

00:18:18.800 in New Brunswick, he filled an aircraft hangar with 6,500 people. Last night in Kingston,

00:18:25.000 there were 4,000 people there. That's not his estimate. That was the press's estimate. So,

00:18:29.260 you know, if even the press is conceding that he's getting big rallies, you can probably

00:18:32.480 take that for sure. Mr. Carney's biggest rally, I think, is about 850 people, and it's only

00:18:40.280 happened once. Usually, it's a polite little gathering like a book launch in the back of

00:18:45.180 Barnes and Nobles, and yet the polls say the Conservatives are about to get creamed,

00:18:53.200 like we're talking a majority liberal government. None of this seems to make any sense to me.

00:18:59.080 Does it make sense to you? It's a mixed picture, and it's still very early. We're not even through

00:19:06.180 the first full two weeks of the campaign, and things have changed quickly and dramatically

00:19:11.540 already that means the situation is volatile and is still changing and can still change

00:19:16.860 part of it was the departure of of uh of mr trudeau he personally had become deeply unpopular and was

00:19:24.400 an anchor pulling down the liberal brand so his departure already has had a bit of a rebound effect

00:19:29.160 for the liberals and they're back to kind of you know arguably more normal territory for you know

00:19:35.020 for a major you know pretty dominant party in canada that's part of it but another part of

00:19:39.160 it is trump the instability the uncertainty by uh from the white house that's caused a whole

00:19:45.920 lot of personal economic anxiety across this country and you'll remember nigel during the 1.00

00:19:52.740 pandemic we saw a phenomenon in canada and internationally where incumbent governments

00:19:59.880 were getting re-elected because there's an external threat you can't do anything about it

00:20:04.420 yourself so you kind of hunker down batten the hatches and you're looking for comfort you're

00:20:10.300 looking for familiarity wherever you can find it so um incumbents tend to get favored when there's

00:20:18.900 an external threat it's kind of like putting on your cozy sweater your old running shoes that

00:20:23.200 maybe you shouldn't run in anymore but they're still very comfortable when they're on your feet

00:20:26.600 after the pandemic we saw the opposite we saw governments incumbent governments getting thrown

00:20:32.900 out that was you know inflation and supply chain problems and whatever so it seems that trump is

00:20:38.800 having this same kind of external threat batting the hatches kind of impact on the canadian uh

00:20:46.320 electorate they're looking for comfort they're looking for familiarity rather than taking any

00:20:50.020 more new gambles with and look let's face it it's always a gamble when you're throwing one set of

00:20:55.180 bums out and uh and electing a new government is that going to last i don't know in and i would

00:21:02.420 I would say it's probably still going to be a pretty volatile situation.

00:21:05.940 And you noted the crowds.

00:21:07.440 Crowds at rallies are always a big, big indicator of the public mood.

00:21:13.880 And also the polling, all the pollsters are still saying that when they test not just

00:21:19.100 the top numbers, but the underlying factors, things like cost of living and economic uncertainty

00:21:25.240 and availability of housing are still very much present in people's minds.

00:21:31.540 Yeah, number one on their mind might be Donald Trump and is my auto plant going to be shutting down next week, but inflation and cost of living and no longer being optimistic about the future of your country is still there right under the surface.

00:21:48.280 So that accounts for the same crowds.

00:21:50.300 Mr. Poliev's popularity hasn't fallen.

00:21:53.160 It's maybe two or three points.

00:21:55.720 The liberals leapfrog forward largely because the NDP collapsed and all went to him.

00:22:01.060 So the messaging that Mr. Paulyev used to become very popular and vault forward two years ago is still working for him.

00:22:11.100 So what we've got is the population that is prepared to vote for Mr. Carney, but doesn't care to go to listen to him, which doesn't seem like a very strong, I would say he's not having that great a campaign.

00:22:27.980 This is why this issue of the strong polling does concern me.

00:22:36.960 Now, there's one jury that...

00:22:38.340 Yeah, Nigel, let me just add.

00:22:39.780 If there's not a lot of excitement, as you've noted, there isn't.

00:22:43.420 It's like the shopper in the supermarket.

00:22:45.520 You've picked up the tomato.

00:22:46.880 You've squeezed it.

00:22:47.920 You've looked at it.

00:22:48.700 You haven't put it in your shopping cart yet.

00:22:50.920 So that's probably what's going on right now with liberal numbers.

00:22:54.180 I see.

00:22:55.340 The National Post had an entertaining opinion on this.

00:22:59.740 I'm going to pitch this to you, Balkan. 1.00

00:23:04.680 They said that when the NDP collapsed, the vote moved over to the liberals.

00:23:09.320 That's what Yaroslav just said.

00:23:11.180 But he said that the NDP were strongly favored by young women.

00:23:16.120 And apparently young women don't like Pierre Polyev.

00:23:19.800 I see a lot of young women who do, but we're talking about a polling company that's equipped

00:23:28.400 to research this thoroughly. How much do you trust those polls? And do you think that the

00:23:33.060 female vote is an issue for Mr. Poliar? I think, broadly speaking, this really checks well with

00:23:40.920 how both the demographic, generational, and the voting between men and women seems to be diverging

00:23:49.460 across the Western world, not only in Canada.

00:23:52.000 We see this in Germany, in Britain, in France,

00:23:55.480 in other places, in the United States.

00:23:57.500 So it tracks with the rest of it, with men, 0.85

00:24:00.400 particularly young men, moving towards more conservative positions

00:24:04.740 and parties versus young women tend to move towards more left-wing parties.

00:24:11.040 But I think even the bigger divide here is generational.

00:24:14.640 If you look at the polling numbers, and you can correct me if I'm wrong,

00:24:17.640 but the real divide is between those who are over 55 versus those who are not. Those who are over

00:24:23.600 55, their primary concern is the fear of Donald Trump. Those who are under 55 are concerned about

00:24:29.140 housing, the affordability, the ability to have a family, and all that. So there is this particular

00:24:37.760 divide, and it will probably come down to whether the young people who, in general, are less likely

00:24:46.120 to go and vote compared to more older voters, will this time come out for a change and vote

00:24:54.100 for it, or whether the older voters, voters over 55, who tend to, in this stage, seem

00:25:01.120 to be motivated by fear, would come out and vote to what they see as a safe pair of hands.

00:25:10.120 So we're almost out of time, Yaroslav, but what would you say to this?

00:25:15.300 A vote for Carney is a vote for your dad.

00:25:17.400 Do you think that's the way the girls are seeing it? 0.68

00:25:20.480 Yeah, well, kind of.

00:25:21.900 I mean, and that's underlying his popularity.

00:25:25.600 It's like, oh, your dad, you may not like him, you know, you may not like everything about him,

00:25:29.420 but, you know, at least you feel that he's got your back.

00:25:33.860 But to Balkin's point, there used to be a phenomenon in Canada that young people tended notch about,

00:25:40.120 or they voted far less than older voters did.

00:25:43.680 Young people are voting now and they're planning to vote now

00:25:46.140 because it's their future on the line.

00:25:48.160 They are the most economically vulnerable.

00:25:50.100 It's the baby boomers who could actually afford not to vote 1.00

00:25:52.640 if they're lazy that day or they don't feel like it

00:25:55.000 because it might impact their RSB, it might impact their investments,

00:25:58.120 but they've already got their home.

00:25:59.520 They've already had their career.

00:26:01.840 It's young people who are freaking out at the idea

00:26:04.660 of never being able to afford a home

00:26:06.480 or should I not get married because, you know,

00:26:09.500 how are we going to settle down? So young people are voting, and they're the ones

00:26:12.880 most tapping into the kind of messages that Mr. Pauly was talking about.

00:26:18.140 Well, gentlemen, this has been great. I want to thank you both. But before I do that,

00:26:22.700 just a quick word from our sponsors. This episode of Hannaford was sponsored by New World Precious

00:26:27.500 Metals, based right here in Calgary. Years of inflationary money, printing, and rising debt

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00:26:51.260 Check them out at newworldpm.com. Yaroslav Balkin, this has been a most entertaining discussion.

00:26:59.980 I would like to have you back again before the election is over, but for now,

00:27:04.200 Well, thank you again for joining us and for the insights you've offered.

00:27:09.700 Anytime.

00:27:10.480 Anytime.

00:27:11.160 Anytime.

00:27:11.940 Anytime it'll be.

00:27:13.860 For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

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Western Standard - April 04, 2025

Can Carney make the tough calls？ Some say not...

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