Western Standard - Can independence solve Alberta's 'Ottawa problem？'

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show.

00:00:21.480 It is Thursday, July the 17th.

00:00:24.080 Last night in Edmonton, Premier Danielle Smith told about 400 people in an Alberta Next panel

00:00:31.200 that Alberta has an Ottawa problem.

00:00:34.120 From the response, it seems a lot of people in the room felt the same way.

00:00:38.280 But outside the UCP membership, and the people who give up a Wednesday night to go to a political meeting,

00:00:44.940 how widespread is that sentiment?

00:00:47.200 With me tonight is UCP founding President Erika Barutis.

00:00:52.380 She's also Department Head of Applied Politics and Public Affairs at Macamay College.

00:00:59.140 Welcome, Erica.

00:01:00.600 Thanks for having me.

00:01:02.240 It's always a pleasure.

00:01:03.560 Erica, you know the Premier fairly well, I think, founding president of the party.

00:01:11.260 Why does the Premier think that Alberta has an Ottawa problem?

00:01:14.980 We reported last night that she said that, well, you tell us.

00:01:21.660 I don't think many people should be surprised. Premier Jason Kenney also said we had an Ottawa problem. He used a different term, which was standing up to Ottawa. This has been a decade long thing. I think Premier Smith is just maybe more direct in her communication.

00:01:38.340 And from my understanding of last night, that sentiment by the 450 individuals really resonated that even though Mark Carney may be better for Alberta than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that you can't just flip a decade of frustration in a month or two.

00:01:58.620 And so I think that this is a position where the government and this Alberta Next panel is looking to find pathways, have conversations since both the Fairdale panel and just since getting a pulse check of what the sentiment by Albertans still truly is.

00:02:18.220 Well, do you get the sense that enough people care about this to actually give the premier the kind of support that these panels are supposed to generate?

00:02:26.800 I mean, we've only had two so far. I hope that they'll do a series over the time, especially in those urban centers. You know, it's all published. They're doing a lot of road showing for this over the summer months, similar to what the Fair Deal panel said.

00:02:43.360 But I don't know if it's going to just be an echo chamber of validation or what will come out of it is the bigger thing.

00:02:50.740 So they can have the conversations. What are they doing to address what has been done since the Fair Deal panel?

00:02:56.660 What can be done? What will be done differently?

00:02:59.760 And what does that mean to Albertans in a landscape under Prime Minister Mark Carney than Justin Trudeau?

00:03:08.140 Because, you know, the chessboard is different now.

00:03:11.520 You said something a moment ago that I wasn't expecting, and when you said that there was a thought that maybe Mr. Carney would be better for Alberta than Mr. Trudeau.

00:03:21.740 I mean, obviously, Mr. Trudeau was not good for Alberta, but is there a little optimism within the government?

00:03:28.820 I mean, you saw it even with how all the elected officials and leaders of our country, including premiers and prime ministers, were playing nice during Stampede.

00:03:38.320 There has been some movement towards perhaps who I believe Mark Carney to be more so with secrets and scandals.

00:03:47.620 But I will say he did build the Building Canada Act, pushed it forward, you know, probably upset some of his base, some of his colleagues, but held on that commitment that he ran on.

00:04:01.300 And that opens up opportunities for consultation for large infrastructure projects, including pipelines, to once again be feasible, which were not the case under Justin Trudeau.

00:04:12.380 And so I think there is optimism. However, it devils in the details with how these consultations with Indigenous peoples go, how consultations interprovincially go.

00:04:25.080 So there's still a lot of runway to see how much Kearney is willing to push.

00:04:30.100 But I think the fact that he even introduced it, tabled it, and actually got it through is a sign that he's going to do differently than Justin Trudeau.

00:04:41.480 Okay.

00:04:42.180 Well, if that's the feeling within government circles, that's great.

00:04:47.780 You said the devil was in the details.

00:04:49.760 And quite frankly, down here, when we wrote about it, we were saying, well, really nothing has changed.

00:04:55.260 He's got lots of exits if he doesn't want to go through with it.

00:04:58.600 But anyway.

00:04:59.240 And that's the thing is I'm being optimistic because we had a communist prime minister operating under a liberal banner. Now we have a, let's say, progressive conservative might be a stretch or a true liberal under a liberal government. 0.85

00:05:11.580 So I think the fact that at least on the spectrum, we've seen a shift back to the values and the beliefs that that party operated on is a little bit more comforting for someone like me that looks at, OK, the predictability, the sustainability of this and the feasibility, whereas Justin Trudeau was just on his little climate change course.

00:05:33.120 well i think he was on one that was largely laid out and explained to him by by the president

00:05:40.000 incumbent you know mr carney has been pushing this for 20 years and this is why i think so many

00:05:44.640 of us find it so difficult to think that he's it's all changed now no and i think to that point

00:05:51.420 i'm trying to be an optimist to say i'll give the chance but you can't expect and you and i are in

00:05:57.740 the policy details where an average Albertan hasn't seen the proof in the pudding or the

00:06:03.700 devil's in the detail. And so until there's a pipeline built, until there is autonomy within

00:06:09.320 the province and return to how the constitution is written, I think that the sentiment that

00:06:15.560 probably came out in that meeting last night will still resonate in large circles across Alberta.

00:06:21.760 Well, that's actually the next thing I wanted to ask you about. It's pretty clear by the nature of the policy resolutions coming forward for the party convention in November that there are a very large number of members of the UCP who are actively looking at a path to independence, what it could look like, what the destination would be, how far they prepare to go.

00:06:50.820 there's an interest there. Do you have any sense of what the sentiment is more widely in Alberta

00:07:01.720 among people who aren't members of the UCP? Now, obviously, anybody who voted NDP, I'd say they

00:07:08.600 were poor market for the idea of independence. A lot of people did vote for the NDP. On the other

00:07:15.020 hand, there's probably, I would guess, a lot of UCP voters who have a sentimental, maybe a

00:07:24.780 practical attachment to the government of Canada. So, as these meetings go forward, to what extent

00:07:33.100 are they actually seeking input, and are they promotional, and where do you think people are

00:07:38.140 in alberta on the on the matter of independence i think that there's a few different circles i

00:07:45.500 think the unfortunate thing is what the ndp is trying to do is say and even broader circles of

00:07:52.220 saying like separation equals 51st state which is very different than i think what a lot of people

00:07:57.420 that may be coined separatist or separatist curious or whatever you want to call it that

00:08:03.420 you'd want to know what that path looks like but that doesn't mean that you're going to go become

00:08:07.500 the 51st state there's individuals that would want to explore separation under a dominion versus

00:08:16.140 true independence so still respecting and working with the monarch which has its own pathway

00:08:22.140 challenges one way or the other the others are looking at you know what does independent look

00:08:27.580 like with a market access um and so there's the sentiment of separate separation which i think

00:08:35.260 there's more people than you'd think feel that way because of the frustration that we had for

00:08:39.580 the last decade there's some people that like myself would love to explore that but at the same

00:08:45.980 well at the same time seeing what carney does um and so my hope is that not only are we looking

00:08:53.340 here was what the fair deal panel put forward here is our current environment this is what we've

00:08:58.940 learned this is what we should be looking at these are the questions we missed or the the perspectives

00:09:03.500 we missed. Again, I think that there's going to be maybe, you know, less exploratory of how this

00:09:13.720 is done by these conversations. But I hope that the Alberta Next panel comes up with what that

00:09:19.400 would look like to present to Albertans to get, I want that full understanding before I would go to

00:09:24.920 a ballot box to make a decision. I don't vote by my sleeve or my heart. I vote with my gut and my

00:09:31.700 brain. And so without that information, I think it's very difficult. Similarly to, I think, how

00:09:37.040 a lot of people felt about leaving the CPP. There's a sentiment there, but how you actually do it is a

00:09:42.440 heck of a lot harder in reality. And there just wasn't that roadmap that I think a lot of people

00:09:50.000 that maybe have the sentiment towards can actually tangibly understand. I'm wondering, Erica, whether

00:09:57.860 I'm right in assuming that many people think, well, we have the referendum, and then if we

00:10:02.980 vote for independence, we're on our way. I don't think it's quite that simple, is it?

00:10:07.900 Absolutely not. And like I said, there's different versions of what does independence look like?

00:10:12.440 Is it independence from all of Canada and removing the monarch? Is it independence there? Is it,

00:10:18.640 like you said, with the UCP policies, I wish they had more sessions on how to write good policy,

00:10:23.980 but i digress um but you know you're going to get a lot of you need to go to your school

00:10:29.140 exactly you can sign up for applied politics and public affairs and learn how to actually write

00:10:34.220 either convention floor policies or public policy but um thank you for that that underhand pitch

00:10:40.360 and promotion of the program um but yeah so i think there's going to be some confusion there

00:10:44.820 but it's not a to b it's a to b c d e maybe f and so that's where i'm hoping that these

00:10:52.140 conversations get the sentiment of the true direction Albertans want to go again people

00:10:59.100 that are looking for separation may be more inclined to attend these versus what the you

00:11:06.420 know attending one of these NDP pro Canada whatever they're running in contrast to what

00:11:13.220 the government is proposing. Yes so I think the Clarity Act would be triggered would it not that

00:11:20.960 would be the first step yes yeah you'd have to do that you'd have to go through i mean i don't even

00:11:27.620 know from how you'd establish once you do the clarity act i mean should it go past that what

00:11:33.400 does it look like for um decisions of constitutional change what does it look like for infrastructure

00:11:40.220 right you need to establish a police force a banking system a pension um and that's where i

00:11:46.600 think a lot of people look and they're like, well, that's why 50 first state is easier because that's

00:11:50.840 already established. But conforming to that, I mean, I would hope if we ever got there, we looked

00:11:57.680 at what Texas has and some of their exemptions from the Constitution. But I really don't get

00:12:02.900 the sentiment that people want to join the U.S. I think that the message is more we're really

00:12:07.820 frustrated. We feel like we're not respected in confederation. I think Saskatchewan's right there.

00:12:13.060 It's just they're not as loud as maybe Alberta has been or is currently.

00:12:18.600 And that regardless of Carney being in office, a, you know, parting of the clouds of Trudeau, that there is maybe opportunity.

00:12:27.320 We can't just all of a sudden lean in with false hope that or, you know, optimism guiding us.

00:12:34.620 Well, there's still people that are frustrated and want to see our premier and our province push for more equality in confederation.

00:12:43.520 You have used the word frustration a number of times in the past 10 minutes.

00:12:48.860 And there are two things that legitimately could frustrate people.

00:12:54.120 One is the sheer amount of money that goes out of Alberta and, quite frankly, keeps the rest of the country going.

00:13:02.320 The other is the lack of interest or respect even for the dominant values of Alberta

00:13:10.560 that we don't get from the rest of Canada.

00:13:16.480 I'll just go out on a limb here, and I say the money is an irritation,

00:13:19.940 but it's not the main thing for me.

00:13:21.340 But I do find it deeply offensive that what seem to be social attitudes

00:13:29.220 that are prevalent in eastern Canada come through Parliament and then get directed to the rest of

00:13:36.700 the country, amongst whom is Alberta. Like, I don't think that the, probably the PEI isn't too

00:13:44.720 happy with some of the things they do either. But anyway, we're talking about Alberta, and you have

00:13:50.660 this uh this lust for control and authoritarian dictates that comes out of ottawa that is you know

00:14:00.260 we don't want that we're we're a freedom loving people i think uh so where do you see the center

00:14:07.220 of gravity for all that frustration that you're talking about i mean if we had a case study i'd

00:14:13.060 look at the fact that quebec seems sees themselves as a distinct society when you look at alberta and

00:14:19.620 And I would extend it to Western Canada.

00:14:21.260 We don't have the cleavage of Western alienation for no reason.

00:14:25.300 We are treated differently.

00:14:26.820 We have, you know, less seats in the Senate.

00:14:30.120 The four provinces equal one Quebec or one Ontario.

00:14:34.220 There's distribution of seat count, seeing elections be decided before our polls close.

00:14:39.700 There's a lot in the parliamentary democratic system that isn't working right now.

00:14:45.200 the way confederation was set up is that the dictatorship isn't like the federal government

00:14:50.880 is the same value as the other provinces that they work in collaboration i think that when you

00:14:57.460 talk i talk about the frustration listen i'm actually i'm quite a realist even though i have

00:15:02.220 some optimism for carney because more of a fingers crossed uh approach but i don't think equalization

00:15:08.600 formula will be reformed i don't think senate's going to be reformed because that causes us to

00:15:14.920 open up the constitution which we technically really haven't done since 1867 because we just

00:15:21.240 added the charter of rights and freedoms like it was very minor we tried to do a bunch of stuff

00:15:25.560 leading up to that and even in the 80s so i don't think that if albertans are sitting here being

00:15:32.840 like well we just need constitutional reform i don't think that that's realistic but what i think

00:15:38.280 the biggest thing that frustrates alberta is get the hell out of our lane and stick to what your 1.00

00:15:44.520 constitutional jurisdiction is don't try and jump over the province to deal with the municipalities 0.97

00:15:51.240 like just stay in your darn lane and do what you're supposed to do as a federal government 0.51

00:15:56.760 well and let provinces do what provinces were designed to do and i think that that would be 0.98

00:16:03.400 a big sentiment shift from what we currently are frustrated with um so to your point money's

00:16:12.280 annoying and a grievance because we see it in dollars and figures but the true sentiment to

00:16:17.160 feel valued and appreciated would be get the heck out of my house yes well you know we tend and the

00:16:25.560 premier herself tends to use the traffic analogy a lot staying out of a lane the other thing that 1.00

00:16:30.280 we might be reminding otto is when you see a red light you're supposed to stop and that's uh the

00:16:35.480 The red light is when you are, in fact, poaching on the burglars.

00:16:40.060 And to be clear, I mean, I think our biggest default is we always talk about pipelines, but that has to do with property rights.

00:16:46.860 That has to do with transportation, corridors, a lot of like investments that we have for research, innovation, anything at the post-secondary level.

00:16:56.500 Like to a lot of people, they just think, oh, Alberta wants you just to allow us to build pipelines from coast to coast and and say F you to everyone else in between Alberta, like Fort McMurray, perhaps, and the ports.

00:17:10.680 That's not the case. We've seen Saskatchewan actually go ahead with a constitutional complaint and looking at using notwithstanding clause against the federal government on things like even property rates or carbon tax or these types of things that are impacting industries that thrive.

00:17:26.500 So I think it goes beyond building pipelines and it's like, let us give you money.

00:17:32.880 Like we're happy to play into that as long as if we need help or we need, um, policy

00:17:39.080 that allows us to thrive, that you're not getting in our way.

00:17:42.280 Yeah.

00:17:43.060 Um, pure speculation, but from an informed source, how, how many, uh, how much of the

00:17:50.160 caucus is sympathetic to separation independence and how much is how many members of caucus

00:17:58.040 are what you might call fiercely federalist that's probably i'm not going to pull a number

00:18:07.060 out of the air because i think that's hard and i think that there's sympathy to separatism

00:18:12.040 because you'd have large pockets of your collective especially in rural alberta that

00:18:17.960 would want to explore that, especially on land rights and our agriculture and forestry

00:18:24.120 industries that also are harmed by federal interference. So I think that there's a lot

00:18:29.820 that are sympathetic to it and again would like to explore and see what comes out of this Alberta

00:18:36.240 Next panel. I have been critical that I don't think elected officials should be leading this

00:18:40.720 because it politicizes it as opposed to working with the industries that are impacted and make

00:18:45.240 policy suggestions or a roadmap for government to explore. And so I think it muddies the waters on

00:18:52.280 the intention of this panel, unfortunately. However, I do think that there are a lot that,

00:18:59.880 again, you can still be interested in separation, but love the monarch and support the monarch. So

00:19:06.500 or the federalist federalism system. So I think it's not as black or white of are you a separatist

00:19:13.920 equaling you want complete autonomy and leaving Canada altogether or versus I am happy with how

00:19:22.620 the order goes I think we're most probably people sit is in that gray in between yes well

00:19:27.560 and caucus probably reflects that yes and people probably should at this stage be in the in that

00:19:34.040 gray scene because there's so many things that we that we don't know uh I see I see we're coming

00:19:41.260 close to time, Erica, but there is this one last question that I'd love to hear your thoughts on.

00:19:48.780 Whether the referendum, which I think is going to be sometime in the first half of next year,

00:19:53.980 let's see, I think that's the latest information we have, the referendum on independence comes in

00:20:00.860 the first half of next year. If it passes, that's one set of consideration. If it fails,

00:20:11.100 That is that people say, no, we're not interested, or a majority of Albertans who vote say they're

00:20:16.700 not interested. Does that not still attach to the Premier anyway? As we've said earlier,

00:20:26.940 her predecessors never did this, Mr. Kenney, Mrs. Notley, and I think they wouldn't have done it.

00:20:37.100 so she did does that not say to people or could it not be interpreted well she's actually in

00:20:45.520 favor of of independence but doesn't want to say so and so we have this referendum so even after

00:20:52.680 losing a referendum she could get up and say oh that's it the people have spoken but it's still

00:20:57.380 her issue do you think she's going to carry that into the next election well two interesting things 0.99

00:21:01.740 Kenny did bring forward a referendum on equalization. So I agree that it is not the

00:21:06.860 question of separation, but he did bring forward a policy to push back on Ottawa. It failed and

00:21:13.040 we're still having that conversation. So I don't think that the issues that maybe are brought under

00:21:18.940 a certain administration stick to that leader. However, hers is more open to not just let's

00:21:28.520 reform the constitution which i think many folks realize is very very difficult as opposed to

00:21:33.640 separation i think to me it's what is the question because i think the equalization question was

00:21:38.040 poorly written and confusing for people as well as the time zone um or the daylight savings changes

00:21:44.520 so i think again it's how the question is written is there also a question that's you know by thomas

00:21:51.000 Sukazic brought forward on the opposite. Is that confusing? I would be very discouraged if it's

00:21:58.380 brought as a standalone referendum because I think it's like an inappropriate use of taxpayers when

00:22:04.940 you could just wait till they're already going to a ballot. And so there's a lot of pieces there

00:22:12.420 that I think will be very indicative. Now, let's play the hypothetical that it does pass. I think

00:22:18.960 the question is by how much that you do you truly have the support? There'll be a lot of pushback

00:22:24.000 because not every voter, you have an option to vote in the referendum. And so that might be

00:22:29.360 hypercritical that she'll have to navigate. I would say if it was held today in the form in

00:22:34.560 which some groups have presented it, I don't think it's going to pass. Because again, like you said,

00:22:39.660 we don't have enough education that even something like me who would like to explore what that looks

00:22:44.400 like? How much would it cost to do this? What is like a business case for being our own entity?

00:22:51.700 I just don't know where that information is going to come to between now and potentially 2026. So

00:22:58.920 there's a lot of roadblocks regardless of what happens if it goes forward. I think that it would

00:23:06.720 be political suicide for Danielle Smith to double down on something where she said this is up to 1.00

00:23:11.680 Albertans to decide. And they decided no, but I'm still going to go forward with it. I think that

00:23:17.580 that would be very career limiting move. So I don't think that she and she's also said that

00:23:23.580 she's not a separatist. So whether people want to paint her with that brush, because from an

00:23:27.540 opposition standpoint, that sounds great. And it's an easy target or that she's like wants to be 0.96

00:23:32.460 a Trumpite, whatever narrative they're driving. She's said it, she's giving it to Albertans.

00:23:39.000 um and so but there's a lot of runway between now and then and a lot of things that could influence

00:23:44.300 people like me uh if you do it a standalone i might just vote no because i hate the context

00:23:51.460 in which it was presented last question erica what would you say to people who uh say yeah

00:23:57.340 let's vote for independence and then see what sort of a better deal we can get out of ottawa

00:24:03.200 Be careful what you wish for, because it could be very detrimental. I mean, we look at Quebec,

00:24:13.200 and we have someone that's gone through it, been very, very close. And there was no real roadmap

00:24:19.980 of how you would do that. So you're going through uncharted territory. And that comes with a lot of

00:24:28.820 of, um, unanticipated consequence. And we might just be told by all of our colleagues,

00:24:35.000 F off, get out of here. And then we're on a landlocked Island, um, you know, with,

00:24:41.760 with very little to do. So this is where I think it's very important to be proactive,

00:24:45.860 to explain the how to Albertans. Um, and maybe don't always just vote with your sentiment.

00:24:52.620 Look at, look at the path. Good words, Erica. Thank you very much for joining us today.

00:24:58.820 Yeah, thank you for having me. And good luck with teaching the next generation

00:25:03.300 to do politics better. For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

Western Standard - July 18, 2025

Can independence solve Alberta's 'Ottawa problem？'

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