Western Standard - Can Pierre Poilievre survive as Conservative leader？

00:00:00.000 G'day! Today is April 15th, 2026.

00:00:28.880 I'm Derek Goldebrand, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching The Pipeline.

00:00:33.040 I've got the normal line-up today, former Western Standard opinion editor Nigel Hannaford.

00:00:37.860 What do we mean?

00:00:38.720 Senior Alberta columnist Corey Morgan.

00:00:40.440 Good day.

00:00:41.100 And news editor Dave Naylor.

00:00:43.440 That's me.

00:00:45.420 Well, the courts at the behest of a group of chiefs in Alberta have blocked the Citizens' Initiative petition for Alberta independence.

00:00:56.420 I guess that means it's all over.

00:00:57.800 where everyone just pack up and go home and pay your taxes to Ottawa.

00:01:00.940 That's the end of it.

00:01:03.740 Can Pierre Polyev survive? 1.00

00:01:07.540 What seems to be an endless stream of floor crossers after losing the election. 1.00

00:01:13.280 Mark Carney seeming to have some wind in his sails. 1.00

00:01:16.200 For the first time, there's starting to be probably reasonable speculation

00:01:21.000 about if Pyropolev can stay in the leader's chair until the next election.

00:01:29.300 But a lot of that comes from our first topic,

00:01:34.520 which is Carney scheming his way to a majority government.

00:01:39.740 Dave, it became official just the other day

00:01:44.160 when there was a trifecta of by-elections.

00:01:48.340 They were all, every single one of them

00:01:50.520 Was a liberal seat

00:01:51.920 One of them was the slimmest of liberal seats

00:01:54.840 In the history of Canada

00:01:56.160 Only by one vote

00:01:57.120 And that was ordered to be redone as a by-election

00:01:59.240 Trombone, Toblerone

00:02:02.460 Turbone

00:02:03.580 Turbone

00:02:05.720 I'm going with Toblerone

00:02:09.560 Still sounds French

00:02:11.120 Swiss 0.99

00:02:12.480 That's Swiss French

00:02:15.260 Swiss is not a language

00:02:17.280 so it's good or it's like a cafe oh yes yeah so anyway uh yeah the with with uh the three

00:02:25.680 by-elections it became official but it was very obvious with these by-elections he was going to

00:02:30.220 get it's now official uh that we have a majority government here we do uh macaveli would be proud

00:02:34.940 of uh carney's scheming and uh the last year uh you know he didn't really get the majority though

00:02:42.260 i don't think derek from the by-elections he got it from the floor crossings because as you said

00:02:47.040 all three of the uh the writings were liberal uh they stayed liberal and then that uh turban

00:02:54.480 writing you were talking about the the liberal vote gained here's the tory vote stayed home

00:03:00.000 significantly lower than uh than the the recent election but don't yeah but don't forget it was

00:03:06.320 the five floor crossings even if they had just won these three by-elections without the floor

00:03:10.880 crock floor without the floor crossings excuse me they would still have a minority government

00:03:16.080 so he engineered floor crossings you know he sent out people to talk to uh conservative mps identified

00:03:22.480 which ones had no ethics and uh pulled them across the floor and there's rumors that it said there's

00:03:29.040 more to come and that he's still trying to get some some more tories to cross nigel uh i think

00:03:35.040 think that the timing of of how Carney coordinated this in so much as he can coordinate it was was

00:03:42.520 very smart on his part if they had the by-elections and then got the floor crossing the headline would

00:03:49.400 have been the floor crossings gave them the majority which that's a pretty cynical thing

00:03:54.860 to do but they got five floor crossings four conservatives one new democrat before the

00:04:00.500 by-elections and then they had three by-elections they didn't pick up a single seat in the by-elections

00:04:04.660 They just reaffirmed them as Liberal. Two slam-dunk Liberal seats, one very thin one between the Liberals and the Bloc, but all three were Liberal.

00:04:14.640 So the headline here was not... I fell into the trap a bit, Doc, with Dave.

00:04:22.100 They played a nice trick here, where all the media were able to report, ah, with these by-elections, they got a majority.

00:04:28.900 But if the liberals had three liberals had not resigned or one been forced to have a by-election because it's too close, there wouldn't be a majority. So I think this was kind of brilliant engineering of the timing in so much as we can assume these things were planned.

00:04:43.200 Yeah. Well, nobody said Mr. Carney was a fool. And clearly this has worked out to make a good story. But just to say it again, you know, Mr. Carney did not win a majority. He maneuvered a majority from, you know, going to the least worthy elements in opposition parties and making an offer that they thought was enticing. 0.95

00:05:06.600 we'll see soon enough i guess what they what was promised to them but uh it's not that was not a

00:05:13.480 win but look you know you do what works when you're in politics and he did what worked so he

00:05:20.040 now however you whether you approve of the way he engineered it or not he has his majority and

00:05:25.880 the thing that we're anxious about now what's he going to do with it one thing that um as a you

00:05:31.400 know as a as a naturally fearful person when it comes to politics deeply cynical and and 0.97

00:05:39.160 anxious about what the crafty bastards are going to do next you're probably going to 0.91

00:05:43.800 one thing that's not changed and won't change until there's a prorogament is the composition 0.96

00:05:48.920 of the committees and what has prevented from mr mr carney from doing his worst in the past year

00:05:54.760 it's the fact that the opposition parties dominate the committees he can't change that

00:05:59.880 until he prerogues parliament and promoguement doesn't necessarily mean there'll be an election

00:06:05.160 but it does bring all the legislation that is in the pipeline to a halt and it all has to be

00:06:10.840 reintroduced so there is a cost in legislative time if you choose to go that way so you know

00:06:16.680 things would be worse um cory with the the what i'm not sure what this every political party is

00:06:26.840 a coalition of sorts i i'm not sure you know you're conservatives you got ren tories you got

00:06:32.500 social conservatives you have populists quebec nationalists you know you have all these different

00:06:37.400 you know you got the big business crowd you got all these different factions i'm not sure what

00:06:42.480 you call the liberals at this point you've got gladu who is a uh at least until a week or so

00:06:48.380 ago a right-wing pro-life social conservative and you've got her sitting in the same caucus as

00:06:53.900 Stephen Gilbeau and what's-her-nuts who crossed the floor from the NDP, the MP from Nunavut,

00:06:59.340 I can't recall her name. You've got extreme left-wingers, and I don't think the Conservatives

00:07:05.060 actually have the extreme right-wingers, or certainly not many, but someone who at least

00:07:10.040 had a pretty solid Conservative track record, even a social Conservative, which just doesn't

00:07:14.820 endear you with your own party's leadership in the Conservative Party. Now, I know when Glenn

00:07:19.440 across the floor and they were asked she was asked about her pretty solid pro-life voting

00:07:23.520 record she says oh i've always been pro-choice what are you talking about as if like her entire

00:07:28.280 political career never existed but uh how the hell is does carney hold something together

00:07:35.120 that spans from stephen gilbeau to marilyn gladden well because that's virtually the

00:07:43.380 entire canadian political spectrum this is the coalition of the weasels the opportunists i mean

00:07:47.620 he's brought them in clearly because he's offered something more than they were getting

00:07:53.140 in opposition seats which is a pretty healthy compensation as it sits so he's got a bit of a

00:07:59.300 juggling act though because it also shows their loyalty is questionable to their own principles

00:08:04.180 to their ideologies and they won't hesitate to turn on him if it doesn't serve their purposes

00:08:11.300 either so he's going to be juggling the favors he offered whatever they may be and you know we can

00:08:16.740 Oh, they're not allowed to do that.

00:08:17.960 We know there's been something

00:08:19.800 been put forth one way or another.

00:08:21.480 That's the nature of it.

00:08:22.160 Hey, conservatives have done it too.

00:08:24.400 But he's not going to have

00:08:26.700 the easiest caucus to manage.

00:08:28.660 That's the way I do.

00:08:29.840 I mean, they proved me wrong.

00:08:30.780 I figured he was going to go

00:08:31.560 for a spring election.

00:08:32.340 Get a larger majority

00:08:33.360 rather than having this piecemeal

00:08:35.460 sort of thing that's shaky.

00:08:37.540 But if he brings in,

00:08:38.720 as we suspect in his turn,

00:08:39.760 he'll look a few more on top of that.

00:08:41.600 Gives himself a five or six seat buffer.

00:08:44.080 He's got the majority he wants.

00:08:45.880 but right now I'd still say it's a fragile one

00:08:48.560 like these are not

00:08:49.580 strong people he's brought in 1.00

00:08:52.280 in principle and the Gilboes

00:08:54.500 I mean whatever Gilboe might be

00:08:56.040 he's loyal to his ideology

00:08:58.440 I mean he quit cabinet based on

00:09:00.560 his own personal principles

00:09:02.200 If he were to cross the floor it would be for something that he's not really

00:09:04.480 going to benefit from like going to the Greens

00:09:06.200 Yeah and he might not put up much longer

00:09:08.560 with a Gladue next to him in caucus 0.53

00:09:10.060 and there's a few other liberals that way

00:09:11.500 or likewise with pulling in

00:09:14.420 from some of the left

00:09:15.220 Well, I'm glad who has got to be better to sit by than Elizabeth May, though.

00:09:18.740 Sure. 0.97

00:09:20.200 So, you know, one's crazy and one's just an opportunist, I guess.

00:09:23.720 But by hook or by crook, as Nigel said, that's the way the game goes.

00:09:27.860 He played with the rules you got and he got himself a majority.

00:09:30.780 But it doesn't mean he's got necessarily a straightforward path ahead of him yet.

00:09:35.680 He's got a heck of a lot more power and authority now than he did a week ago.

00:09:39.900 But he's going to have to get a few more, I think.

00:09:42.840 The other thing he's going to have to look for is what's he going to do for the loyal liberals who've been there all the time and now suddenly see the new boys.

00:09:49.240 Well, yeah, we're going to end up with a cabinet of like, you know, 120 people or something.

00:09:53.640 Well, Nigel, perhaps I put it incorrectly to Corey talking about the ideological divide, because we have in the Trudeau era, and to an extent beginning in maybe with the Stéphane Dion era going back,

00:10:09.920 considered the liberals to be a more

00:10:12.440 ideological party

00:10:13.960 and really ramped up under Justin Trudeau

00:10:16.760 but the liberals have always

00:10:18.700 fashioned themselves, they always

00:10:20.260 called themselves the centrist

00:10:22.700 party, even if they were the center

00:10:24.580 left party and happy to be pushed by

00:10:26.500 the left wing NDP, but they've always

00:10:28.680 fashioned themselves the center party

00:10:30.480 and that wasn't even necessarily true, they were a

00:10:32.520 brokerage party, it was the party of

00:10:34.640 power, the governing party

00:10:36.400 you know, you could have a

00:10:38.460 kind of moderate

00:10:39.920 conservative-ish guy like John Manley in, and you'd have Sheila Copson. This isn't actually

00:10:46.480 new to the Liberal Party. It just feels new because we haven't had it in a long time. This,

00:10:51.520 I think, might be a return to the traditional Liberal Baroque Rich Party model where they're

00:10:57.220 the party of power. It's not the party necessarily of the left, even if that's the natural drift of

00:11:02.840 it. Well, Derek, I mean, I don't think you should be saying that out loud because people are going

00:11:07.720 hear that and it's going to be derek phil brand you know publisher of the western standard out

00:11:13.080 there in calvary says this is a much more moderate middle of the road uh uh result of what happens

00:11:20.600 it's just that's not the uh the left-wing ideology is no longer the driving force the

00:11:25.880 way it was under justin trudeau or stephan dion uh power for power's sake is the driving force

00:11:32.360 and that'll sometimes lead them a bit to the left and sometimes lead them a bit to the right

00:11:36.360 that sort of i gotta say that remains to be seen i mean so far just based on mr carney's actions

00:11:42.680 to this point it would be very hard to say what sort of a party the liberal party was because

00:11:48.920 there hasn't really been a result that you can point say mr carney did that but the things that

00:11:53.560 he has tried to do have been screwing alberta uh he's still wedded to the green ideology which is

00:12:02.680 revolutionary in my view um and he's picked up a few weak-minded people to help him get there

00:12:09.640 so is that a part of the party of power or is that just a party of opportunity gladu would agree

00:12:16.360 i mean she she said that for years in opposition uh there were you know major infrastructure

00:12:21.800 projects in our constituency she no one would even pick up the phone on the other end and she

00:12:26.600 says immediately upon becoming a liberal they came to her and said what can we do and she says this

00:12:33.160 is great as if it was a natural and good thing in quebec you generally say that out loud by the way

00:12:41.480 that's they got a whole lot of investment yeah and then she crossed the floor yeah so uh you know in

00:12:47.640 quebec it's not too uncommon in politics to say out loud vote for us we'll bring home the bacon

00:12:53.480 but in english canada we do do it we're not we're not any really better in quebec but we

00:12:58.440 at least are supposed to feel ashamed about it we're not supposed to broadcast politics to quite

00:13:04.840 the same extent um she broadcasted it she said the quiet part out loud and so you know that is

00:13:12.120 something where you you can say hey yeah you know i might be uh conservative but i could bring home

00:13:17.000 the bacon now and that is just pure raw power politics conservatives do it and liberals do it

00:13:21.560 it you just don't only say it out loud but the liberals are maybe more naked about doing it

00:13:26.680 transparent about doing it well it was work so yeah you could you know maybe right there that's uh

00:13:33.320 i i i still see the them as a um as an ideological party um especially when you get off the economic

00:13:41.640 development into the area that nobody else is really that interested in which is um controlling

00:13:47.080 the internet uh controlling what people can do on the internet wanting to know what people want to

00:13:51.480 do on the internet uh the whole business with the the sea bills going through there right now with

00:13:58.520 with redefining hc9 with uh the so-called border security act bill c2 where where they're looking

00:14:06.040 for warrantless access to metadata held by uh you know companies that are left-wing and right-wing

00:14:12.920 governments do this but they both or i should say left-wing and center-right government populist

00:14:18.440 right governments are less likely to yeah well i mean i mean these things are like george bush's

00:14:22.520 patriot act uh well it's an abomination but you know harper never did this stuff harper was there

00:14:27.800 for nearly 10 years and the issue was he you know the issue was there if he wanted it but he did not

00:14:34.200 enter into looking at people's private information this government will do that now we forget about

00:14:39.080 that because we're also focused on the economic development side of things and you know maybe we

00:14:43.960 should be but uh i'm not prepared to just say well this is just a brokerage party and they get

00:14:49.560 business done and you won't know the difference what will happen is that you'll you'll have more

00:14:53.720 money in your pocket well no i i don't think that's what i'm saying i'm saying like similar

00:14:57.720 to say the jean christian government the jean christian government its natural pull of gravity

00:15:03.720 was to the left they are liberals at the end of the day but they were more than anything

00:15:10.520 they care where they had the luxury they went left but when push came to shove they generally

00:15:16.600 chose power which is why once the deficit became a huge issue they stole that from the reform party

00:15:22.520 they adopted it for themselves um they did something that moved to the right i mean

00:15:27.800 Jean Chrétien, on paper, love him or hate him, mostly hate him,

00:15:31.080 but he cut spending more than Stephen Harper ever did,

00:15:34.260 more than Brian Mulroney ever did,

00:15:36.040 more than Pierre Paglia was promising to do.

00:15:38.700 He did it.

00:15:39.260 Jean Chrétien did it because that was the politically smart thing to do.

00:15:42.160 And Canada was actually going bankrupt at the time.

00:15:45.480 I'm astonished to hear you say that because what he actually did 0.99

00:15:48.640 is he passed the damn expenses on down to the provincial government. 0.98

00:15:51.860 I always disagree with that because he cut transfers to the provinces 0.98

00:15:55.740 that the federal government had no business participating in to begin with was not its 0.99

00:15:59.020 jurisdiction yeah but if you suck if you if you suck the provinces in and say hey you need to 0.98

00:16:03.740 have this great health plan we'll pay you uh sure you know 50 but they had no business doing that 0.98

00:16:09.500 money in the big in the first place so so i'm a bit more here's the difference between then and

00:16:13.660 now then you had people like john manley who you mentioned and you said that they were they were

00:16:18.540 the fellow from saskatchewan uh goodale ralph goodale there were those kind of blue liberals

00:16:23.820 in there, which you could actually move

00:16:25.580 a party in that direction? I don't see that.

00:16:27.840 I don't see that.

00:16:28.400 Well, now they have Vladut.

00:16:31.520 Excellent.

00:16:33.760 Okay.

00:16:35.880 So all of this,

00:16:37.960 good for the country,

00:16:39.940 bad for the country, whatever you think,

00:16:41.920 it's probably bad for

00:16:43.840 Poliev.

00:16:45.900 Some of our tried to argue,

00:16:47.900 Nigel, that

00:16:48.900 maybe it's good for Poliev because this

00:16:51.700 gives him four years now.

00:16:53.820 You know, he's not going to be on the razor's edge for an election.

00:16:56.200 This probably gives him four years, unless Carney pulls the plug earlier, to reset, rebuild, you know, find the next more mature poly of.

00:17:08.460 Sure.

00:17:08.920 But it also means he's got a long time on the opposition benches now to wait before he gets to an election.

00:17:17.000 And only one other leader in the history of the Conservative Party of Canada

00:17:22.420 has ever been allowed to contest more than one election.

00:17:25.420 That was Stephen Harper.

00:17:26.700 And that was seen as a contextual victory.

00:17:28.880 You know, he had just merged the parties.

00:17:30.320 The Liberals had had this long, long majority government,

00:17:32.280 brought them down to a minority,

00:17:33.320 and it was seen as within striking distance.

00:17:36.160 Polyev is no longer seen as within striking distance.

00:17:39.620 It was a contextual loss, in a sense,

00:17:42.180 because they were expected to win this supermajority government.

00:17:44.980 Everybody and their dogs, including all four of us here, had bought into that.

00:17:50.180 The Trudeau government was in ashes.

00:17:52.700 It was.

00:17:53.500 It was.

00:17:54.680 But politically, they've been revived. 0.97

00:17:56.740 So now he's been leading four crossers, four from his party, one from the NDP. 0.99

00:18:01.860 Very possibly more could come. 1.00

00:18:04.280 I think, you know, predictions of his doom have been a bit premature.

00:18:10.740 And still probably are premature.

00:18:11.800 But I think now he's not on death row, but it's no longer a sure thing, I think, that he does make it to the next election.

00:18:21.840 Well, nothing's ever a sure thing, is it? I mean, your political career, you would probably be quick to agree with me on that.

00:18:28.780 What I've observed in the last few days is just kind of the usual media pylon where everybody wants to be the first to see the end coming for the, you know, the principal player in the plot, which is Pierre Polier in this case.

00:18:41.800 Oh, he's done. He's finished. Now it's all over. They're looking. There will be more. Yeah. Okay. Fair enough. That's the media traditional looking for conflict. But let's look a second time. Who has he lost? He has lost four MPs who none of us could have named back in October of last year when the first one went absent without leave.

00:19:06.340 I mean, these people are backbench non-entities.

00:19:11.600 I doubt that they have a conservative bone in their body.

00:19:14.660 They strike me as the sort of people who just...

00:19:17.100 Well, she had one, but all of a sudden she doesn't.

00:19:23.660 But she was not like a Matt Jenneru, Red Torgy, pretty liberal-ish.

00:19:29.260 She sounded like the real thing.

00:19:31.900 No, I mean, my heart bleeds.

00:19:33.400 She wasn't a chatted material or a senior.

00:19:35.760 No, none of these people are going to be cabinet material, and nobody who is cabinet material

00:19:42.080 has actually, they haven't left, they have shown no size of disloyalty, so Scheer, Melissa

00:19:48.520 Lansman, Tim Upple, Rob Moore, those guys are all firmly in place, Peter McKay, who

00:19:54.380 would have been a blow to him if he came out and said, well, that's it for Pierre, has

00:20:00.880 not said that.

00:20:01.760 the staff are not quitting

00:20:04.420 that's another thing most people don't bother to even think about

00:20:06.900 but if you suddenly see chiefs of staff

00:20:08.800 communications director did just resign

00:20:11.220 well he did but not because of that

00:20:12.660 well no although they rarely do say

00:20:15.000 because of we don't really know

00:20:16.180 he's got a great job

00:20:17.260 no I'm talking Katie Merrifield

00:20:19.640 oh Katie Merrifield oh okay

00:20:20.940 I was speaking at Ben Whitford

00:20:22.540 okay so there's two big ones in comms

00:20:24.800 who have gone

00:20:25.700 but there's a lot of people

00:20:28.220 so they're not

00:20:29.620 And history, to me, suggests that defeat does not determine the conservative leader's fate.

00:20:38.140 It's what kind of a defeat it is.

00:20:40.940 What matters more is the scale of the loss, the unity of the caucus.

00:20:45.420 And I don't see these things, you know, at issue.

00:20:49.760 And if you get another half a dozen defections, again, you've got to learn and say, well, who are these people?

00:20:54.680 and if when the news comes down

00:20:56.700 that Joe Schmoe has left you're going to have to

00:20:58.740 go to the internet and say who was he anyway

00:21:00.620 and it turns out

00:21:02.460 nobody is going to make a difference

00:21:04.620 it's not good but

00:21:06.400 it isn't the disaster that

00:21:08.680 the press are trying to

00:21:09.540 when Mark Carney had his press conference

00:21:11.840 one of the reporters

00:21:13.420 probably CBC but I don't know

00:21:15.940 said if you were Mr. Polyev would you quit

00:21:18.440 I mean what kind of question

00:21:20.480 is that? Stupid 1.00

00:21:22.000 in your time in Ottawa have you been to 1.00

00:21:24.340 storm away yeah nice nice place maybe four years living there it's not too bad because he pretty

00:21:32.600 much has to quit he wouldn't quit just i'm done with the job i'm out here he wouldn't quit for

00:21:36.300 that reason um look i i'm not in the camp trying you know crying but you know i i think the

00:21:44.880 questions are fair now four is a lot you know cory you'll remember um danielle smith when she

00:21:51.300 was the wild rose leader lost two um well technically the trickle that started leaving

00:21:56.720 well there was a joe england thing they were gonna push him but he jumped first yeah so at least it

00:22:00.660 was perceived as him leaving but he was he was gonna be pushed um and then carrie toll and ian

00:22:05.920 donovan so she had on paper lost three but more or less lost two um that was a big wound to her

00:22:13.420 leadership um and then she did after that make it through a leadership review where she won handedly

00:22:19.640 And a month after that, the Wild Rose was a heap of ruin. 1.00

00:22:23.960 The interesting thing to look at with that was how well did grabbing all those floor crossers work for Prentice? 1.00

00:22:30.020 In the end, not very well, because he was too greedy. 1.00

00:22:33.060 And if Kearney doesn't play his cards carefully, he could eventually actually start, it's giving him a stronger caucus.

00:22:39.920 But in public support, I mean, it might sour more Canadians, some of them.

00:22:44.220 I know. Well, we talked about them last bit, but on Polyev now, floor crossers, yeah, you're generally going to lose the least principled people. And that is a reasonable thing for a leader to say, hey, that guy was liberal all along, or that guy, you know, Gladue, she just wanted to bring home pork barrel spending. These are opportunists. They want cabinet spots. 1.00

00:23:02.980 that's a very reasonable thing for the leader to say from who's kind of the jilted leader to say

00:23:09.240 but when the numbers start racking up like this

00:23:13.460 even your supporters in caucus are going to start to look around even if they love you like you're

00:23:20.300 the guy we want to back you so your own supporters in caucus eventually start to look around say

00:23:26.140 this thing's starting to fall apart and he's got his work cut out for him like it's as you said

00:23:32.060 he's not on death row yet but he's on watch now we're starting to work towards it if he doesn't

00:23:36.920 find a way to revitalize show strength show that there's a future like this is a setback but now

00:23:43.120 we're moving forward again something does have to change though whatever it might be and i i think

00:23:49.200 it eludes a lot of us but there's a whole lot of you know we're conservative we tend to like them

00:23:53.540 but people don't bloody like him and i i like him yeah you know there's aspects that can be improved

00:24:00.640 and so on but somehow he's got to endear himself to people and i don't know how he can do it to

00:24:06.220 be honest i'm not exactly a social butterfly myself so uh there's a lot of this is i feel

00:24:11.500 like he's almost a bystander i'm not sure how much he can actually do about this dave uh a lot

00:24:16.820 of the people who have crossed have just been in opposition for a while now expecting every time

00:24:22.320 hey we're going to take down trudeau we're going to take down trudeau last time it was we're going

00:24:26.320 to form possibly the biggest supermajority

00:24:28.760 government in Canadian history.

00:24:30.420 We have this in the bag. We're all

00:24:32.140 measuring the drapes for 24 Sussex.

00:24:34.860 And then

00:24:35.680 on their face, Carney comes

00:24:38.240 back and somehow the Liberals have this

00:24:40.160 miracle revival. Elbows

00:24:42.320 up. Yeah. And

00:24:43.820 you know, Trump

00:24:46.080 was this X factor. This totally external

00:24:48.200 factor comes in and changes it.

00:24:50.340 And in a sense, Carney

00:24:52.220 now seems to have control of events.

00:24:55.020 He can go to

00:24:56.180 to MPs, you know, maybe you're otherwise loyal conservatives just say, you've got to be tired

00:25:01.960 of sitting over there. Just come over here. It's going to be the parties are better. You get to

00:25:06.840 sit on the good side of the house. You're not in the cheap seats anymore. It feels like events,

00:25:11.220 to some extent, are just no longer in Polyev's hands, and he is a spectator.

00:25:15.520 We've got to keep in mind, though, that things aren't going great in this country at the moment.

00:25:20.400 He can have his majority, but he's still got a huge problem with immigration. He's still got a

00:25:25.120 huge problem with the economy going in at the toilet, unemployment, and all these real world

00:25:30.660 issues, I think, will start to catch up to them. And as you mentioned, Derek, you know, the Tories

00:25:36.180 had a 20, 25 point lead going into the last election. So they're trailing now, it seems,

00:25:42.040 by about 10 points. So I think the worst thing they could do is panic and try and remove polio.

00:25:48.820 He's just got to work harder and come across as more measured, more statesmanlike like he did that speech in Europe and in London and Berlin and keep doing the things he's doing.

00:26:03.940 People are still with him. Fundraising was a record $48 million in 2025. Like that's eight months after the election. They're still pulling in the money. So, you know, we'll see what the first quarter results are.

00:26:18.640 But at the moment, I think people are with them, too.

00:26:23.840 Yeah, but within it, remember, the caucus is a different beast than the members or even the voters.

00:26:30.260 The caucus, these are people who are literally away from home, isolated, sitting in an apartment or a hotel, and they're living and breathing this stuff every day. 0.95

00:26:39.320 And being in opposition sucks. 0.98

00:26:41.620 Being in opposition for three or four terms really, really sucks. 0.99

00:26:47.140 And the leader of the opposition doesn't have, he's got a couple of sticks to discipline with, but he doesn't have that many carrots. 0.86

00:26:54.700 The best he can offer is you can be the critic.

00:26:58.700 So you get to make fun of the minister in question period, you know, every week or so.

00:27:04.620 That's not a big carrot.

00:27:08.760 The prime minister has all the carrots here.

00:27:11.420 The prime minister's job is more difficult in some senses, but it's a lot easier in other senses that he can reward, he can punish a lot easier than the leader of the opposition can.

00:27:19.920 And they've lost their boogeyman in Justin Trudeau. Canadians, for whatever reason, have decided to give Mark Carney a lot of grace right now.

00:27:31.620 And they're giving him this long extended honeymoon and chance, and he is at least not pissing them off the way that Justin Trudeau did. 1.00

00:27:39.440 So they've lost their rallying cry every day of this buffoonish idiot on the other side. 0.99

00:27:44.840 Now it's this quiet banker who at least comes across as an adult, even if he's still pretty far out there. 1.00

00:27:53.620 They've lost that rallying cry.

00:27:56.400 It's now everyone in the opposition benches.

00:27:58.680 It's another three and a half years of this.

00:28:01.860 Do you really want to do this for three and a half years?

00:28:05.040 That's going to be hard to hold together.

00:28:06.880 And I think if he loses a few more, I don't think he hangs on at that point.

00:28:12.860 Time will tell.

00:28:14.300 It depends who he loses, doesn't it?

00:28:18.060 Well, yeah.

00:28:21.580 If Melissa Lansman takes a walk, uh-oh, you know, what's going on?

00:28:25.900 Something's gone wrong.

00:28:27.080 But he'll say, ah, she's a Toronto Red Torque.

00:28:29.440 That's what he'll say.

00:28:30.920 And you can say that so many times, but when you lose too many,

00:28:33.980 eventually that wears thin and even your allies in caucus will say it's been a slice boss whatever

00:28:39.340 whatever you whatever he would say the fact is that she stood beside him in uh question theory

00:28:44.540 for a couple years now and clearly she is an important part of the uh of the party apparatus

00:28:51.020 and represents a constituency if she deserted him that would be a that would be a blow no

00:28:57.100 question about it there are others of whom you could say the same thing for different reasons

00:29:00.940 but right now we're just dealing with

00:29:03.800 but it's a lot of

00:29:05.700 it's a lot of

00:29:06.660 alright

00:29:07.340 so

00:29:10.160 the

00:29:13.000 some Alberta chiefs were in court

00:29:15.320 they filed an injunction

00:29:17.260 and were successful

00:29:18.440 in blocking the continued

00:29:21.380 collection of signatures

00:29:22.700 for the citizens initiative petition

00:29:24.380 for a referendum on Alberta independence

00:29:27.300 it's a weird thing

00:29:29.440 to say people aren't allowed to go out and collect there are allowed the what's been so there's been

00:29:35.860 a stay it is weird this whole thing and a stay on the chief electoral officer starting the process

00:29:43.140 of verification and moving further so the judge said you guys can carry on your deadlines remain

00:29:49.320 the same you can keep getting signatures but the process beyond that is now in limbo so if the

00:29:57.360 deadline comes where they can't collect anymore you know may may 7th or whatever that is or second

00:30:01.620 or something uh they'll have all their boxes of signatures and petition forms and everything

00:30:07.580 unless the courts have resolved this they're going to sit on their boxes until they do because the

00:30:14.920 chief electoral officer isn't allowed to further move forward with the process after that point

00:30:19.700 until two other bands get their chance to go in and and explain why their needs are more important

00:30:26.660 than allowing Albertans to have a referendum.

00:30:30.140 But it's kind of a kicking the can down the road.

00:30:33.260 Yeah, it's certainly not dead. 0.99

00:30:35.160 Yeah, but it sucks. 0.99

00:30:37.760 Well, I don't know if it sucks a little wind. 0.97

00:30:39.040 I think it's kind of inspired, actually,

00:30:40.420 the ones who are already active in this thing.

00:30:42.500 And didn't the judge say that they would rule on it

00:30:44.900 before the end date anyways? 0.92

00:30:46.620 She should have been in a couple or a few weeks.

00:30:49.120 Yeah, so in my opinion, it's a bit of a nothing for her

00:30:52.000 because it's going to be dealt with quickly.

00:30:55.880 and still the big question though 0.82

00:30:58.540 is then how is she going to rule

00:30:59.540 is she actually going to find 0.97

00:31:02.840 that we are allowed to have a referendum on us

00:31:04.580 or at least through petition

00:31:06.780 so that raises the next question Dave

00:31:08.860 which is

00:31:09.900 if the courts

00:31:12.640 somehow decide that this is not allowed

00:31:14.900 does Smith

00:31:16.660 then politically have to 0.97

00:31:18.640 put the question on the ballot herself 1.00

00:31:20.840 she's already called nine questions 0.96

00:31:23.040 for an October

00:31:24.820 referendum on the combination of constitutional reform and immigration issues. We've talked about

00:31:30.640 that before. It is the greatest political coalition maintaining I've seen from any

00:31:41.420 leader ever that she can keep a party together of people who are supporting independence and

00:31:46.560 people who are still Federalists. In Quebec, it's kind of the opposite. You have a Federalist party

00:31:49.920 and you have the Nationalist Party

00:31:52.100 and you have left-wing and right-wing

00:31:53.900 within those parties.

00:31:55.780 In Alberta, you have the left party, you have the right party

00:31:57.740 and the right party can have Federalists

00:31:59.960 and Sovereignists in the same party.

00:32:01.960 And doing that on such a fundamental question

00:32:03.800 is the most incredible

00:32:05.880 type roadblock I've ever seen.

00:32:08.180 One reason she's been able to do so

00:32:09.980 though is because she's facilitated a process

00:32:12.280 for the people to decide if they want to have

00:32:13.880 this question themselves. It's not the government

00:32:15.960 putting it for it.

00:32:18.040 But if the courts quash this, 0.64

00:32:19.920 And then she's presented with the option of, like, I think there'd probably be a revolt from the independent side if they're not allowed their question. 0.60

00:32:28.740 But then she has to wear independence a fair bit more if she puts the question on herself.

00:32:34.340 Our reporter, Will Vassar, has been in the courtroom for the entire case.

00:32:39.180 He thinks, and it's just a guess, while he says the judge is quite scornful of the arguments by the chiefs.

00:32:47.200 But you never know which way a judge is going to go.

00:32:49.220 He could make the stay permanent.

00:32:53.780 And then, yeah, then there's a huge problem.

00:32:57.140 Corey's boys will revolt.

00:32:59.120 But I think at that point, Smith would see the wise thing and put it on the referendum ballot herself.

00:33:08.980 You know, of course, I thought Smith would do the right thing with the gas tax, and that doesn't work. 1.00

00:33:13.000 so um okay but but then she would she would face a backlash because there's federalists in her party

00:33:19.160 too they're not all nationalists this is how you frame it i mean if i were saying in premier

00:33:23.760 smith's shoes and you're in that quarter now you've got to get this on but what's your rationale

00:33:29.120 for doing it and i mean if you approach it and say look this is clearly got a large part of the

00:33:33.860 province divided we need resolution we need the citizens to get the chance to get out there and

00:33:39.560 get that vote. Thomas Lukasik

00:33:41.520 has worked his butt off. Hundreds of

00:33:43.520 thousands of people have demanded this vote

00:33:45.440 and it would be irresponsible

00:33:46.920 not to allow that to go

00:33:49.480 onto a referendum.

00:33:51.260 What about Thomas Lukasik's vote?

00:33:52.900 Both sides, though, have demanded

00:33:55.540 a referendum on this.

00:33:57.480 I think, as you said, she's

00:33:59.400 played a masterful job

00:34:01.060 of riding this thing in the 1.00

00:34:03.420 middle, and I think she could continue

00:34:05.240 to do so. As long 0.91

00:34:07.340 as you're phrasing it that way, so it doesn't look like you're

00:34:09.320 necessarily on one side or another and there is truth to that i i believe if i was a hardcore

00:34:14.120 federalist who really believed there's only 20 or 30 support i would be sick of this and i'd want to

00:34:19.680 say fine let's do it let's get it out there let's vote hit your 20 and then you secessionists can

00:34:26.480 shut the heck up for the next 10 or 20 years because we've gotten that out of our system

00:34:30.600 because if if there is not a referendum this issue is far from dead it's going to be more

00:34:36.360 divisive and problematic

00:34:38.220 than ever for both sides.

00:34:40.820 So I think she could pull it off

00:34:42.580 if she just frames it the right way.

00:34:45.580 There's always the thing

00:34:46.520 you don't vote, you don't

00:34:48.540 all we're asking for is the

00:34:50.440 referendum. Nothing happens.

00:34:52.960 All you're doing is saying yes or no.

00:34:55.060 Nothing happens. 0.99

00:34:57.040 She's going to be called a separatist 1.00

00:34:58.660 anyways. They're already doing that. It doesn't matter. 1.00

00:35:01.020 Well certainly, then she's calling her

00:35:02.600 a separatist.

00:35:02.860 And if we're going to get Jeremy, how those

00:35:04.380 but uh you know that's part of it too they've already shot those guns at her it's not like

00:35:10.760 they're going to stop calling her that if she doesn't move along with this you know not strictly

00:35:16.400 related to this but you know certainly adjacent uh new uh another pull out uh earlier this week

00:35:24.380 showing the use or late last week showing the ucb with a commanding 17 point lead um it would

00:35:32.800 show a crushing UCP majority. Now, the polls on independence do have a majority on the Federalist

00:35:40.540 side, and, you know, the worst polls for independence are mid-20s, the best are in the

00:35:48.180 mid-30s, but it's the minority position. It's a big minority position. Politically, you generally

00:35:54.100 want to be on the side that is in the majority position, and your side is united, not divided.

00:35:59.820 The NDP is in the majority position, and NDP supporters are about 98-99% Federalists.

00:36:06.820 UCP is in the minority position, but a majority of their own supporters are independent supporters.

00:36:12.400 That's traditionally not a good place to be.

00:36:16.060 This should be the NDP's time.

00:36:18.600 They should be the Federalist Party. 0.99

00:36:20.740 They should be dominating the polls, but they are getting their asses kicked, 0.97

00:36:25.180 even though they're on the majority side of this winning issue, Nigel, 0.98

00:36:29.500 and the UCP is triumphant.

00:36:32.680 How sad are you if you are Nahi Nenshi right now?

00:36:35.640 For me, I mean, I...

00:36:37.120 What explains this?

00:36:37.840 Well, I'd be asking.

00:36:40.340 I'm not sure I can.

00:36:41.780 I mean, I would be honest, if I were Mr. Nenshi,

00:36:43.820 I would be saying, what am I doing wrong exactly here? 0.98

00:36:47.020 I'm a pompous blowhard. 0.97

00:36:48.520 Everybody understands that, 0.95

00:36:49.760 but it didn't stop them electing me as mayor.

00:36:52.540 um i i won the i won the leadership fair and square i mean the premier made me wait for the

00:37:02.340 opportunity to do it i've shown up at the media like what am i doing wrong here well back to the

00:37:09.080 first thing as an individual he is not particularly credible i said pompous blowhard maybe i was being

00:37:15.280 a little unkind but uh you know he's he's not he's not good putting his uh point of view across

00:37:23.620 in a credible way that's 100 of his problem uh cory or dave um just you know this should be

00:37:33.080 an issue made in heaven for them this is emerging as the biggest issue it's an existential issue you

00:37:38.220 have to take a position on it this is not what should the marginal tax rate be or what's you

00:37:42.960 You know, how do we tweak the curriculum or what should the royalties on the oil sands be or something like that?

00:37:48.060 This is a fundamental question that's going to have clear dividing lines.

00:37:53.980 Denchie is on the side.

00:37:55.520 The NDP is on the side of the majority, and they're completely united on it.

00:37:59.920 The UCP is on the side of the minority, and they're completely divided on it.

00:38:04.760 How do you not have the polls completely reversed? 0.99

00:38:08.300 The UCP should be getting its ass handed to it right now.

00:38:10.820 Well, because Ninchy has taken the wrong side, though, on a number of 80-20 issues already. 0.97

00:38:15.640 And that's part of what's dragging him down, too.

00:38:17.860 He's defending people in school, transitioning children, and having men compete in women's sports.

00:38:23.880 I mean, the NDP trans hang-up, which is a 20% issue, is a loud one.

00:38:29.300 But most people are tired of that.

00:38:32.040 And that's dragging him down.

00:38:33.700 Yes, he's got a great opportunity to frame himself as Captain Canada in pulling the NDP.

00:38:40.820 But he's acquired a whole bunch of other baggage that still people might say, again, I'll vote against independents in the next referendum.

00:38:49.340 But there's no way I'm voting for that guy who wants to chemically castrate children.

00:38:54.480 And there's many issues like that.

00:38:57.060 The school book ban, even though we won't call it a ban. 0.72

00:39:01.980 Women's sports, keeping them for women, as you've mentioned. 0.72

00:39:06.500 Albertans are giving the UCP credit for those issues. 0.96

00:39:10.280 and especially the economy, right?

00:39:12.820 The UCP score is fairly high in the handling of the economy.

00:39:17.380 We've just had a $1,500 tax cut, as the Premier keeps informing us.

00:39:23.420 So, yeah, if I was Ned, I think he's in a worse shape than Pierre Polyev

00:39:30.080 in terms of career longevity.

00:39:31.700 Yeah, the other thing, a lot of people just don't think it's ever going to happen,

00:39:34.480 so it's not an issue for them.

00:39:35.660 Yeah. 1.00

00:39:36.020 I had, you know, in Quebec, there's a significant number of people who will vote for the PQ, but they don't vote for independence because even if they don't want independence, they like it that the PQ is there as the mean son of a bitch. 0.98

00:39:51.160 They're going to get they're going to stand up for Quebec. They're the home team. They don't trust the Quebec Liberal Party as a bunch of a bunch of federal cello. 0.98

00:39:58.620 So, you know, you can vote for the party. You know, it's like you're voting for the bad guy. You want him on your team. He's the tough one.

00:40:06.020 so maybe there's some of that too and we're at a part where there's still even the non-fully

00:40:10.340 independence-minded people there is a strong sentiment of anti-ottawa going on right now and

00:40:16.020 nichey doesn't present himself as a person who's going to stand up to carnage yeah well the mvp is

00:40:21.300 just we ottawa can do no wrong and he said well they'll say oh of course ottawa can do wrong uh

00:40:27.380 but then they can't like really name anything uh you know so it's very theoretical that ottawa could

00:40:32.180 do you know could mess up to them they're just not trusted to not sell out on one person keeping

00:40:37.860 yeah and don't forget they've got avi lewis hanging over there yeah he's still coming over

00:40:42.340 their heads right umbilical course so yeah that's gonna keep uh and she's popularity down a bit

00:40:49.700 okay parting shots day the most underreported story of the week the 2026 ugandan chimpanzee war

00:40:59.860 you guys heard of it oh yeah very very interesting story this is a group of 200 chimpanzees

00:41:08.040 who have lived together since for decades decades and decades and a few years ago they started to

00:41:14.580 separate into two separate tribes uh an eastern and a western so you know there's another ironic

00:41:21.000 and now for the last few years they've been in unbridled war as soon as they see each other they

00:41:26.820 they're fighting and killing each other dozens of chimpanzees have died a whole bunch of babies

00:41:31.860 have died when their mothers have been involved in and fighting but uh even the monkeys can't 0.81

00:41:36.660 get along so what hope is there for us the epstein goat into the chimpanzees yeah anyways

00:41:42.180 i blame the eastern monkeys yeah google ugandan chip fight and it's very interesting stuff

00:41:50.020 i'm just offering low-hanging fruit to premier smith here's an easy win that i think should be

00:41:54.340 be a no-brainer. The oil prices are through the roof. The government is getting awash in revenue

00:41:59.940 from it. Cut the gas taxes. You're losing the narrative on this. You've got the means. You're

00:42:06.460 supposed to be conservatives. If you still believe when you're getting $700 million per dollar that

00:42:12.660 the energy prices rise on the global market, you still have to ding us 10 cents a liter at the pump.

00:42:18.880 This is one of the areas too where it's a good tax to cut. You would know from the Taxpayers

00:42:22.780 federation it gives people more stimulus to do things travel spend do other stuff i'm not sure 0.98

00:42:28.620 why premier smith's really dragging her feet on this one just just cut that darn thing and if you

00:42:33.580 see you can't afford it cut some spending then i'd like to hear conservatives i wouldn't just say uh 0.97

00:42:38.140 you know because carney cut the uh you know carney goes out and he steals you know he steals these

00:42:42.380 kind of populist conservative ideas took it from polyev uh gilbo was upset enough when the consumer

00:42:48.300 half of the carbon tax was taxed.

00:42:51.540 Now, at least the temporary elimination

00:42:53.720 or cutting of the federal gas tax,

00:42:55.540 I would have just loved to see the look

00:42:57.040 on Stephen Gilbeau's face

00:42:58.500 when taxes on fuel are lower

00:43:01.900 than when he came to office.

00:43:03.460 And it was done by liberals,

00:43:04.760 at least on paper.

00:43:06.400 Well, that was going to be part of my parting shot.

00:43:10.160 But at any rate,

00:43:11.600 the other thing that caught my eye here today

00:43:13.960 was the very uh very negative dark comment made to francis widowson by a indigenous woman who said

00:43:26.920 she's a chief well she's not a former chief i believe yeah former chief but anyway she was

00:43:33.400 indeed a former chief and she expressed that physical harm should come to widowson so that

00:43:38.520 widowson could understand what it is like to be raped and beaten uh so that every so there's

00:43:44.520 actually there's such a much simpler way to get to the put all of this to rest you know what it is

00:43:50.360 troubles troubles because if there are corpses there that shouldn't be there that settles the

00:43:57.800 matter for me i'll bet you that doesn't happen in our lifetimes well uh the latest news in the

00:44:07.720 the jessica yuneev saga i can't get enough of this dude uh or jessica yuneev mr yuneev

00:44:13.580 has filed uh legal action against the western senate on four counts of hurting his feelings

00:44:20.140 for misgendering him and things like that with the bc human rights uh commission tribunal uh racket

00:44:26.000 um i i found out uh that i have to apologize to mr yuneev uh for assuming this was all just

00:44:34.600 white privilege on his part. Because it turns

00:44:36.640 out Mr. Yaniv is actually

00:44:38.560 indigenous. He is a

00:44:40.640 part of the MMIWGS2

00:44:43.040 LGTBQQIA

00:44:45.060 plus community. 0.96

00:44:48.100 I guess

00:44:48.540 assume this was white privilege on his part

00:44:50.280 the whole time. White male

00:44:52.380 privilege. But he is

00:44:54.440 part of the alphabet.

00:44:57.600 Somewhere in the

00:44:58.580 alphabet. Maybe I think

00:45:00.220 all of it. So has he paid

00:45:02.560 his dues and actually joined?

00:45:04.600 uh i i don't think they'd want to mask on the club i would just love to be at like a band

00:45:11.640 like the band council office and and this dude walks into the dress and says sign me up

00:45:18.340 uh chief jessica chief jessica i was actually thinking that that should be the new name

00:45:25.380 okay so we know more evidence is going to be presented as we big chief jessica add another

00:45:33.820 count to our charges when this gets played again at our at our human rights commission

00:45:39.880 play this clip add another one uh for uh now slugging the mmiwgs2l gtb qqia plus community

00:45:51.280 i want to know who's taking over this show when derek gets thrown in the slammer

00:45:55.540 So keep donating to the legal funds, everybody.

00:46:05.200 Yeah, thank all of you who have donated to our legal fund.

00:46:09.680 Actually, we did raise some money for it.

00:46:12.300 And also, a shout out to the Justice Center for Constitutional Freedoms,

00:46:16.300 who has stepped up to provide defense on the first stage of this.

00:46:23.060 I got more to say, but we're out of time.

00:46:24.780 All right. Corey, Dave, Nigel, thank you. Thank you, John and Josh on production. And all of you for joining us today and who are supporting the work we do. Remember, if you're not a member yet of the Western Standard, you're a cheap bastard in freeloading off of the work of everyone else who is a subscriber. So please don't feel like that. Go to westernstandard.news right now. Click on subscribe. It's just $10 a month or $100 a year for unlimited access to all Western Standard content.

00:46:50.980 and you'll be supporting the work that we do

00:46:53.120 and maybe helping keep me out of human rights jail in BC.

00:46:56.980 Thank you very much and God bless.

00:47:20.980 We'll be right back.

Western Standard - April 16, 2026

Can Pierre Poilievre survive as Conservative leader？

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