Western Standard - April 11, 2025


'Canada will fold...' and they know it, tough talk just for election, Part 1

Topics
Carney election strategy
Mentioned
Mark Carney David Knight-Legg Donald Trump Pierre Poilievre Justin Trudeau Jerry Butts Chrystia Freeland Stephen Harper Yara Sachs Mike Tyson Netanyahu
VINDICATED： COVID-era protest ban ruled unconstitutional The forgotten issues of the election

Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

154.49

Word count

2,879

Sentence count

132

Harmful content

Hate speech

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

David Knight-Legg, a strategic advisor to the Alberta government, energy and financial services firms, joins us to talk about the impact of the Trump administration's trade tariffs on the European Union, China, Canada, and the rest of the world.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 While other leaders were condemning Palestinian terrorists, Yara Sachs held their hands for selfies.
00:00:11.000 She called Israel racist, then backed millions to UNRWA, Hamas's front.
00:00:20.000 She stood by the liberals, ready to arrest Netanyahu.
00:00:25.000 She is Trudeau's kind of Jew. 0.94
00:00:30.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show
00:00:57.100 of the Western Standard. It is Thursday, April the 10th, and we are 19 days into a 35-day
00:01:04.940 election campaign. Joining us now is David Knight-Legg, a strategic advisor to the Alberta
00:01:10.720 government, energy, and financial services firms, and he's no stranger to the Western Standard.
00:01:16.980 Good to have you back, David. Great to be back. You're calling in from Europe, I gather, David.
00:01:23.280 Are they all in shock over there like we are?
00:01:26.140 They are. They are.
00:01:27.640 They're handling it a little differently than we are.
00:01:29.660 But they're, you know, they're dealing with very similar themes.
00:01:35.100 You know, the Trump administration has changed the game and they've done it in ways that no one predicted.
00:01:44.540 It's normal for Trump to be unpredictable, if that makes any sense.
00:01:47.680 But the the the really interesting dinner table conversations happening in Europe are exactly what it is that they are up to, because nobody believes that the Trump team is either misunderstanding these tactics or fumbling these tactics.
00:02:09.680 And most people don't believe that they're doing them for purposes of self-dealing.
00:02:13.560 So one of the real sort of debates happening between smart people that understand capital markets are pivoting around what exactly is the strategy here?
00:02:25.560 Why is it being ruled out in this way?
00:02:27.360 And why have they decided to go to all countries at the same time?
00:02:31.440 Okay.
00:02:32.220 Well, let's come back on that.
00:02:34.160 And let me just get a quick word from our sponsors in here.
00:02:37.160 And that's where I'd like to pick the conversation up, is what the Europeans are making of the President's motivations.
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00:03:15.360 David, that sounds like the sort of thing we should be thinking about, but come back to the Europeans.
00:03:21.260 What are the two possibilities as they try to interpret the president's actions?
00:03:26.760 Well, look, I am going to check out newworldpm.com and congratulations to your sponsor because they have been in front of something that one of the companies whose board I sit on managing assets for large family offices was recommending two years ago, which is the importance of dealing with volatility by placing assets in secure categories like precious metals.
00:03:52.520 The interesting thing for Canada is that we have extraordinary advantages right now in things like metals and mining, but we don't seem to have a clear plan over how Canada should be leveraging its position relative to the United States, given our unique advantages with the assets that we control as a country, but also our unique advantage in being the number one bilateral trading partner and the number one security partner with the United States.
00:04:17.380 Europe is in a different position than Canada is. And I think that's probably the most important 0.98
00:04:22.540 thing to understand in terms of drawing a distinction between how people react or respond.
00:04:27.740 Everybody that is dealing with these tariffs has to react or respond in a way that is
00:04:33.160 advisable given their own unique position. And every country has a very different position.
00:04:39.040 Every country has unique competitive advantages. It has unique gaps or challenges. It has unique
00:04:46.660 relationship to the United States in terms of debt, relationship to the United States in terms
00:04:51.280 of trade and assets, and relationship to the United States in terms of security. And I think
00:04:56.440 what's unique about what's happening right now is that all of those things are being put on the
00:05:00.620 table at the same time. And that is creating extraordinary complexity in how negotiations
00:05:06.040 will take place. But at the heart of what's going on is this debate around China. And if you sort
00:05:15.540 of take apart the three different things that the U.S. government is doing right now related to
00:05:21.760 trade, related to their own debt, and related to security, China is at the center of all three of
00:05:27.240 those things. And this is starting to look more and more like a very careful strategy built around
00:05:33.240 confronting China. And we're seeing sort of the first inning of what is probably one of the biggest 0.99
00:05:38.780 great power conflicts playing out over trade, near-shoring, on-shoring, repurposing,
00:05:46.460 re-industrialization themes that are going to be part of the lexicon of everybody's language and
00:05:53.660 the way these markets are going to trade over the next few years.
00:05:57.180 So, if that is the case, I'm not saying I don't agree with you, but if that is the case,
00:06:06.220 If this is about China, why did it start with Canada and Mexico?
00:06:12.520 I think that the strategy has had a few different iterations.
00:06:19.200 And I don't think that somebody going into any sort of chess game knows exactly how responses will play out.
00:06:25.740 My guess is that the United States knows that it has the strongest leverage with both Canada and Mexico.
00:06:35.040 and is able to manage their relationship and their sort of negotiations with those countries with all of the advantages.
00:06:46.200 So, you know, Canada, the Liberal government is trying hard to run against Donald Trump right now.
00:06:51.380 And so the language that's being used about the way that Canada will respond to tariffs is, you know,
00:06:57.920 bullish on Canada's ability to actually have a response that is not completely self-defeating.
00:07:03.200 But Canada has virtually no firepower with respect to the United States or its markets, has almost no leverage with respect to trade and has zero leverage, literally none with respect to security or sovereignty when it comes to security.
00:07:16.880 So for the United States, negotiating with China, negotiating with Mexico and Canada is simple and it's straightforward. And anybody looking at the numbers outside of the Liberal Party of Canada's strategy team, which is trying hard to create a sort of a virtual reality around what Canada could do with respect to the United States, knows that Canada has no leverage in this situation.
00:07:41.200 We have to do a deal. My advice is that we do a deal that is bilateral, that we reject doing a multilateral deal with Mexico for a third time. I think that was a huge mistake. I think the U.S. would be open to a bilateral deal. And unlike Mexico, we have the ability to open the security files alongside the trade files with the United States and securing what could be the most extraordinary North American decade of prosperity and growth if we do it right.
00:08:06.520 but the question is will we do it right you know do we do we have a vision for what canada can do
00:08:13.820 and be in the world that includes us actually participating uh without being a deadbeat when
00:08:19.600 it comes to nato are we actually going to join AUKUS the submarine warfare unit that our closest
00:08:25.300 allies the united states the uk and australia are actively involved with and that we haven't
00:08:31.280 earned a seat at the table with yet. Are we going to solve for the deep avoidance we have dealing
00:08:36.940 with our own drug crisis and our complicity in the American drug crisis, not based on what our
00:08:43.280 porous borders can actually interdict, but based on what is actually happening both with fentanyl
00:08:49.360 and with terror interdictions coming through the Canadian northern border. I think there's so much
00:08:55.180 for Canada to do. And I think the story is right now, every country is looking at what their
00:08:59.680 options are with respect to the United States. Most countries are looking at conciliation and
00:09:05.800 dropping trade barriers and doing deals. China and Canada uniquely are looking at retributive
00:09:11.060 tariffs and passing them. The US is largely ignoring ours and giving us the same break
00:09:17.680 they're giving to everybody else because they're not worried about negotiations with Canada
00:09:21.760 long term. What they're really concerned with and focused on is dealing with China
00:09:26.880 and coming straight at China on trade, debt, and security.
00:09:32.480 Well, I'd like to come back to the China question in a moment,
00:09:35.300 but right now we're in the middle of an election, as you know,
00:09:37.840 and we have two people, Pierre Polyev and Mark Carney.
00:09:43.940 Do you get the impression that they see the situation the way you've just described it
00:09:53.500 and are carefully avoiding comment yes they have to it's not even nothing i've said is
00:10:01.500 remotely controversial it's canada has had a decade of the worst productivity out of the 40
00:10:08.580 advanced economies in the world and we are on track to be the very worst until 2030 and when
00:10:14.240 they ran the numbers they said probably till 2060 there is zero chance that canada can engage in a
00:10:20.960 trade war with the United States and survive for months. There is nothing controversial about this.
00:10:26.840 No serious economist can look at Canada's current position as an economy and say that we have the
00:10:33.100 remotest chance of doing anything that threatens the United States when it comes to trade. We have
00:10:37.840 zero leverage. We have had a decade of collapse in productivity. We have a GDP that cannot keep
00:10:44.120 up with even supplying our own government with enough money to function because it is so poor.
00:10:50.140 The debt levels are now eating about probably it's over $54 billion now, probably up to
00:10:55.400 it was $62 billion the last time that Christian Freeland decided to resign the day before
00:11:00.740 admitting that in Parliament.
00:11:03.020 We are not in any position to fight.
00:11:04.680 We're the 95-pound weakling that wants to go into a tariff war with Mike Tyson.
00:11:09.920 It's not going to work.
00:11:10.780 Nobody's betting on it.
00:11:11.860 And it's so extreme that even very close friends of Mark Carney's, the CEO of Eurasia
00:11:18.640 group where Mark Carney's wife works, where Jerry Butts works, came out and publicly said to
00:11:24.380 American markets, there's no chance after this election that Canada does anything but fault,
00:11:30.320 period. And he said that with the degree of authority that only somebody that knows Mark
00:11:35.260 Carney, his wife and Jerry Butts could possibly give. So there's no question that Canada
00:11:39.960 is in a position where we have to figure out a plan for what we want to do in the world first,
00:11:46.380 a vision for what we can be as a nation.
00:11:48.920 And once we've figured those things out,
00:11:50.660 and once we can convince Canadians
00:11:52.280 that those things are worth playing for,
00:11:54.340 then I think we can negotiate something
00:11:55.900 with the United States that could lead to
00:11:57.860 decades of extraordinary economic growth.
00:12:01.060 But currently, the attempt to saber rattle
00:12:03.820 isn't working for anybody that knows the numbers.
00:12:07.400 Now, you obviously have a good insight there
00:12:10.020 into the Carney team.
00:12:12.960 Do you have any sense of where the conservatives
00:12:15.780 are on this, Pierre Pellievre and the rest of the conservative leaders?
00:12:24.900 Look, I think Pierre is fighting a good fight.
00:12:27.380 It's hard for him to get, you know, quality time from our state-run media
00:12:32.220 because they know that one of his goals will be to reduce the reliance
00:12:36.540 of our media on taxpayer dollars, and they're aware of that.
00:12:42.060 And I think that that's meant that they aren't entirely celebrating.
00:12:47.040 You know, it's extraordinary to me that somebody who's a politician can pull 15,000 people to an open rally and not have that be the top story of the election so far, because that is just an extraordinary outcome.
00:12:59.800 In a former sitting prime minister, Stephen Harper introduced him, very compelling speech.
00:13:04.680 And it, you know, it hardly made a ripple in our state run media.
00:13:08.140 I think we have a problem as a country in that Canada is currently governed by a party that decided to turn us back to the 1970s and sort of a statist media approach that helps maintain the messaging that they want on things.
00:13:23.920 Pierce is fighting uphill against that. He's fighting uphill against having been in landslide territory for months. And then with the passing of the torch from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney, you know, having somebody that is able to portray himself as a safe pair of hands, you know, literate, financially literate, which is a nice change from Krisha Freeland and Justin Trudeau.
00:13:48.100 But, you know, he's also been able to escape taking any accountability for his advisory work for the last five years, which has been the worst five years for Canada, largely due to Mark Carney's ideology on climate alarmism and on deficit and debt spending that has has left us in an extraordinarily bad position.
00:14:09.500 So I think Mark Carney has a lot to answer for. I think that the Liberal Party's changing of the guard has worked for them. And I think their close messaging through the media has also worked for them.
00:14:21.700 It's instructive to me to note that the number one demographic, the only demographic that Mark Carney substantially leads in is the demographic tends to vote the most, which is everyone over the age of 60.
00:14:35.600 That's everybody that still watches TV.
00:14:38.880 It's everybody that's retired and has time to watch TV.
00:14:42.000 And I think, you know, the alignment between state run media, people in that older demographic that still rely on those older channels for their information and the ability of the Carney election campaign team to run a run a targeted sort of focus strategy around that demographic is instructive.
00:15:04.000 constructive, it's telling. I'm disappointed that that demographic of boomers is falling so easily
00:15:12.000 for the new version of what has been a bad hand for the country for a decade. But it's been
00:15:19.740 tactically effective, and Pierre has to figure out a way to differentiate himself on that front.
00:15:24.020 Perhaps this is a good moment for me to remind Western Standard viewers that the Western Standard
00:15:29.160 does not accept any subsidy of any kind from the program that David is talking about here,
00:15:37.880 which puts, I think, something like $600 million into the so-called mainstream media.
00:15:45.020 We don't take that money.
00:15:48.260 You can't take a little bit of heroin.
00:15:50.800 In the end, you have to take a lot.
00:15:53.000 David, let's just switch gears.
00:15:57.080 Because, I mean, you've just been preaching our line there.
00:16:01.040 We love to listen to you talk about the inequities of the mainstream media.
00:16:06.040 But the fact of the matter is we kind of got used to it now and do the best we can here.
00:16:12.780 And what is President Trump trying to do with China?
00:16:20.320 Is he trying to completely shut them out of the American market?
00:16:25.820 Does he have a more sinister plan?
00:16:28.500 I can't imagine what it would be, but what do you say?
00:16:33.000 Well, look, I think that when you have, you know, great power rivalry,
00:16:37.460 which is always the case in global affairs,
00:16:41.780 you have to look at the fact that the chessboard has multiple different pieces on it
00:16:47.300 and multiple different vectors.
00:16:48.560 and you know let's maybe i'll answer that question by referring to categories that we understand in
00:16:56.240 canada um when when the trump administration first said we are going to put tariffs on canada
00:17:02.960 because of the following things the following things were things that people found you know
00:17:09.580 almost unbelievable which was you know your problem with fentanyl uh you're part of the
00:17:14.420 fentanyl trade. And so, you know, we sort of said, okay, well, we'll put $1.3 billion into
00:17:20.980 border security and we'll help deal with fentanyl. But nobody really believed it was entirely about
00:17:25.640 fentanyl because it was, you know, we have an important kind of open border. And so there's
00:17:32.280 security issues that we need to address, but we knew that wasn't entirely the case. We also knew
00:17:36.500 that, you know, that the trade relationship between Canada and the United States is net
00:17:43.320 beneficial to the United States. They have a trade surplus with us of $58 billion until you
00:17:48.460 include oil and gas. Once you include oil and gas, they go into deficit, but that is not a real
00:17:53.300 deficit because the bilateral trade in energy is one way from Canada to the United States
00:18:00.020 at exceptional value to them. They refine and repurpose that and then they make money when
00:18:05.460 They export, they consume a lot at an exceptional value below market, below global markets, and then they refine and export a lot and make huge profits on it.
00:18:17.360 So we knew that that discussion with the Trump administration wasn't going anywhere.
00:18:22.960 And what was interesting to me, two things were interesting.
00:18:25.900 One was, you know, our media didn't really dig into the dynamics of the security relationship between Canada and the United States, which I think has four or five different.