00:04:25.820the Labour minister can go in and say,
00:04:27.620all right, everybody back to work, and it's all okay, you know.
00:04:31.040And then they grumble about the government being heavy-handed,
00:04:33.720but they're deeply grateful that they're able to go back to work
00:04:37.780and the burden of blame has been lifted from them.
00:04:40.740What happens when you get Labour unions
00:04:42.960that really don't want to go back to work
00:04:44.720Can they control the federal government or they control some vital industry?
00:04:49.740And, you know, labor unions can still do a lot through even just taking a work-to-rule posture rather than striking outright.
00:04:57.940But, you know, this is intended to, you know, on the face of it, and I believe that the government is genuine in its desires here,
00:05:07.620they want to stop the ability of labor disruptions completely demobilizing a port.
00:05:15.580Think of the Port of Vancouver, for example, Canada's largest port.
00:05:19.420It's got bigger capacity than all other Canadian ports put together.
00:05:23.760So labor disruption, say, by the longshoremen at the Port of Vancouver
00:05:28.120should not be able to shut down most of Canada's exports through Canada's primary port.
00:05:33.240Or, for example, Canada posts a stoppage due to a labor disruption that can severely impact the operations and viability of many small businesses that use it as their shipping vehicle or an Air Canada strike or whatever.
00:05:51.220So anything with major economic consequences.
00:05:52.940Now, the government has said that it's putting parameters or guardrails, as their favorite term, that this would only apply to labor disruptions with an economic impact.
00:06:06.200Well, I've never met a labor disruption that didn't have an economic impact.
00:06:11.400That's the whole point of a strike to create economic pressure.
00:06:17.200The government has also, there's quite a bit of political spin around this as well.
00:06:21.140The government has claimed that this legislation will actually curtail their ability to impose back-to-work legislation by putting strict parameters around it.
00:06:30.600I frankly don't buy that for a second because for a government that has had to impose back-to-work orders during economic disruptions, why on earth would they want to limit their ability to do that?
00:06:50.080It just simply doesn't make sense. They want to create a new set of rules that make it easier to justify. They certainly do not want to limit their ability to impose back-to-work orders.
00:07:00.340I also think that this is a gift for Avi Lewis, the new leader of the New Democratic Party, because it gives him a tangible, specific, concrete issue that he can that he can climb on to really focus on to help to rebuild his brand and build more support, get attention for the NDP, which has really been floundering for a number of years.
00:07:22.380I want to return to the person of Mr. Lewis a little later, but right now, so what we've
00:07:29.260got at the moment with Mr. Carney is that we've got his own version of a big beautiful
00:07:35.260bill, $500 million, which mostly seems to come from institutional sources, not private
00:07:41.560industries, banks, it's pension funds, and a couple of other things, but it's not really
00:07:48.200like uh the major oil company has stepped up and said we we're going to invest in canada and here's
00:07:54.840our 40 billion dollars this is institutional money so he's got but he's got that and he's got his
00:08:01.880plans for the off of the major projects office uh which hasn't produced anything but he's obviously
00:08:08.760still committed to that idea it's also the major investment summit he just held yes well and that's
00:08:16.520where I think the 500 billion dollar fund was rolled out. So he has these things and over the
00:08:22.920past 18 months we've seen quite a number of memorandums of understanding. Here in Alberta,
00:08:29.480we're hanging our hat on an MOU that says there'll be a pipeline, brackets, as long as we don't
00:08:35.560encounter any resistance from indigenous interests. So those things that we've already seen,
00:08:41.000now in the very recent weeks we've seen him approach Europe and I failed to
00:08:50.120understand what Europe can do for Canada back in mr. Harper's time we
00:08:56.780established the comprehensive trade agreement with Europe it depended upon
00:09:01.280individual countries rational ration ratifying the the agreement not all did
00:09:09.620but there certainly has been a significant uptick in trade with Europe but a significant uptake
00:09:15.680takes you sort of like from four percent to ten percent and it's not anywhere close to the trade
00:09:21.220we have the United States so if that isn't likely to change what is the point of cozying up to
00:09:28.740Europe they're in worse shape than we are yeah well some of this is symbolic a big part of this
00:09:34.340a symbolic broadcasting and attitude reset.
00:09:39.540It's the message is really, hey, folks, we can no longer depend on the United States
00:09:47.140to be a reliable partner because they're talking about potentially annexing us or
00:09:58.180These are not the actions of a trust partner.
00:10:01.620So we need to find others. And hey, we've got a lot in common with Europe. Canadians like Europe. Why don't we do more business with Europe?
00:10:11.340So it's really a symbolic pivot, one that can make some difference in terms of our trade statistics.
00:10:21.160But as you note, we so overwhelmingly depend on the United States as our current export market that is going to take a really long time to move those markers meaningfully.
00:10:32.720Now, they have moved already. When this trade war started with the United States about a year and a half ago, 76% of Canada's exports went to the U.S.
00:10:41.340That figure is down now to about 66% or 67%.
00:11:27.380Let's not put all of our eggs or too many of our eggs into the same basket.
00:11:30.660But shipping a basket of widgets from Canada to France is always going to be more expensive than dropping it on the train, sending it down 200 or 300 kilometers across the Canada-U.S. border.
00:12:09.160The best thing that we can do for Canada was already done.
00:12:12.740It's the Canada-EU trade agreement that was concluded under the Stephen Harper government.
00:12:19.560That's the big opening of the floodgates for greater trade between the between the two countries.
00:12:24.680Now, I would note that there are 10 European countries that still have not ratified it.
00:12:30.580I would say let's focus on getting those countries to ratify it.
00:12:34.180Let's get this thing into full implementation.
00:12:36.900That's going to have the biggest impact on Canada's economy and Canada's exports.
00:12:41.440What they're talking about now is unrelated to allowing that currently signed free trade agreement to come into effect more fully.
00:12:52.460They're talking about, they seem to be talking about things like student exchanges, allowing Canadian students to study in Europe and vice versa, integrating supply chains better for things like defense procurement.
00:13:07.600a good thing. But again, the kind of things that really, really get juiced by a fully implemented
00:13:14.700free trade agreement. So I would say that should probably be the focus. So I think this is more of
00:13:20.120a symbolic move than anything else, because the real heavy lifting was already done by the
00:13:25.180Harper government in concluding that free trade agreement to begin with. Now, we're watching our
00:13:31.540international trade minister trying to sign free trade agreements left, right and center. Good.
00:13:36.640probably makes sense when you're trying to diversify trade but free trade agreements alone
00:13:42.500do not diversify trade they enable trade to be diversified but then you need trade missions you
00:13:49.780actually need signed contracts between canadian companies and importers abroad to really really
00:13:58.400move the needle when you said that canadian companies had been successful in diversifying
00:14:05.380and you said that their sales to us were down by i think it was 10 yeah around there are they
00:14:12.260actually selling their product elsewhere or are they just kind of businesses down 10 because we
00:14:18.180sold less to the us oh well actually that's more that's a more detailed question i'd probably have
00:14:24.420to defer that to the people who really analyze our trade stats more thoroughly but on the face
00:14:30.820of it about 66 percent of our exports are now going to the u.s rather than uh rather than uh
00:14:37.70076 so it is it is more to china sorry are we selling more to china um marginally yes because
00:14:46.260we were in a pre in the depths of a deep freeze when the carney government took over but that's
00:14:51.780something we want to be really really careful about and i hope that the government is is taking uh1.00
00:14:56.500Chinese threats seriously they are certainly not a reliable trading partner
00:15:01.840I would argue they are less reliable and at least as arbitrary as a Trump
00:15:10.180administration has been though the Chinese wake up in a bad mood this
00:15:14.000morning they declare by fiat that Canadian pork is dangerous no more
00:15:18.700Canadian pork or there are rebels and Canadian canola products so no more
00:15:23.000canadian canola they do this all the time on a whim that's no more predictable no more reliable
00:15:29.140than the kind of stuff we've been seeing uh from the trump administration where he wakes up one
00:15:34.040morning and decides he doesn't like canada so more tariffs on our automobiles well you see if you
00:15:39.660knock off if you knock off canadian trade and canola and then you can give it back but the
00:15:44.860prices you've got to buy our motor cars or electric cars that's actually beyond arbitrary
00:15:51.600That's smart business, but they're in a position to do it, and we're not.
00:15:56.540How dependent do you think Mr. Carney is on his relationship with China?
00:19:54.260But so far, after 18 months, we don't have anything.
00:19:58.240How long do you think, Yaroslav, that he has got to actually pull a bunny out of the hat and say,
00:20:06.100Here it is. This is the first of many things that our approach to government is going to yield, and it's going to be great for everybody.
00:20:14.160Oh, boy. Look, it probably depends on which element we're talking about.
00:20:20.460He's talked about attracting a trillion dollars.
00:20:23.980He has one trillion dollars in foreign direct investment.
00:20:28.120That was the intent behind his big investment summit in Toronto the other week.
00:20:33.160um it's it's a positive thing to broadcast to the world to major investors that were open for
00:20:41.180business sure that's good but there's still some significant roadblocks for international investors
00:20:48.260to see canada as a safe place to invest specifically we do not have an integrated
00:20:54.560single market we solve inter-provincial trade barriers here so there's no such thing right
00:20:59.740now is investing in the Canadian economy because there isn't one. We've got sort of a somewhat
00:21:06.000intertwined architellego of separate economies. It's not attractive.
00:21:12.060If nothing is happening in the new year, I mean, even Canadians of goodwill, I think,
00:21:16.640would be saying, well, okay, you promised a lot. Show me something.
00:21:21.060Well, and that's where I'm going with this. There are barriers for that investment to happen. We
00:21:26.900have a single economy we have two separatist movements also toxic for yeah for attractiveness
00:21:34.020for for investment and we haven't settled our uh our uh relationship issues our economic
00:21:40.980relationship issues with our single biggest economic partner that does not make us look
00:21:45.300attractive so so far we're seeing a whole lot of big aspirations but not much happening behind it
00:21:52.500um i think the biggest test is going to be how quickly and how well the prime minister can sign
00:21:59.460a trade deal with the united states he's going to have to sign one we're going to have this has to
00:22:04.100come to a conclusion we will not survive a long-term economic or great war of attrition
00:22:10.100with the us we simply can't and i would say the the window the ideal window is probably between
00:22:17.460the U.S. midterms, and January 1st. Once January 1st hits, Canada is going to face even fresh new
00:22:26.180tariffs on already beleaguered sectors, specifically automobiles, auto parts, and steel.
00:22:33.420If new tariffs hit those sectors, those sectors will not survive. So right now, Mr. Carney is
00:22:40.240Captain Canada, elbows up, yeah, I'm going to fight for Canadians, and Canadians like that.
00:22:44.860They're buying it. The polling shows they're into that. But once this tangibly starts to turn into job losses, mill closures, auto plant closures, then that public mood is certainly going to sour.
00:23:02.240So I would say on the Canada-U.S. front, it's really a double-edged sword. Mr. Carney is benefiting in the immediate term politically, but that can flip on a dime, particularly in the new year if new tariffs come into effect.
00:23:19.660So what would you say? You were in the business of giving strategic advice. Would you suggest to Mr. Carney that he have a snap election and grab a solid majority while it's there to be taken?
00:23:30.640look there aren't really any signs that he's planning a snap election these things always
00:23:39.060create ripples out there if somebody starts to make a phone call to inquire about
00:23:45.700um bus wraps you know they always have a logo and a big face of your leader you know that can
00:23:52.200those kinds of phone calls create buzz or you start to make inquiries about releasing phone
00:23:57.660bank spaces or about, you know, local campaign office, you know, rentals, it creates waves out
00:24:04.920there. There are no waves out there suggesting that this planning is underway. But I would posit
00:24:11.380that strategically, it would be negligent of Mr. Carney's advisors not to be having these
00:24:21.140conversations because their polling is through the roof right now. Structurally, that probably
00:24:28.220will not last much, much longer. Again, January 1st could be a pivot point or a hinge moment
00:24:34.380in Carney speak. So the window is sort of guaranteed, the safe window of buoyant polling
00:24:42.380is finite. It's short. So it would be foolish for them not to be seriously considering
00:24:49.780a snap election the the seat projections show that they would definitely pick up seats they
00:24:55.200would almost certainly pick up a lot of seats the conservatives would drop seats like we're talking
00:25:00.440you know 20 or more so why would they not be thinking about doing this now that's why i asked
00:25:07.460the question last question because we're out of time the ndp under mr lewis abby lewis former
00:25:13.140journalist excellent ndp leadership credentials inherited from his grandfather are they going to
00:25:20.420make a difference anybody going to vote for them the ndp has got the proofs in this country it has
00:25:27.940not been big and powerful in the last uh last decade last two decades at least at the federal
00:25:36.100level it's got significant presence in the organizational ability at the provincial level
00:25:40.580and it's a pretty fairly provincially federally integrated party so they've got on the ground
00:25:45.780strength its biggest handicap i would say with the greatest respect to jagmeet singh who i'm sure is
00:25:51.540a super swell and nice guy he was not a strong leader and he was not a very strategic leader
00:25:57.460so the removal of mr singh um probably removes their biggest uh their biggest impediment of
00:26:04.420recent years abby lewis so far has kept a pretty low profile and despite that ndp support has
00:26:12.500already started to rise if an election were held today most of the seat projections most of the
00:26:17.060polling suggests they would uh potentially triple the number of seats that they currently hold and
00:26:23.220that's basically doing nothing that's basically just having anybody else at the expense of the
00:26:29.300the liberals wouldn't they it would be liberals by and large by and large yes uh i i don't think
00:26:36.420that in any of those seats they'd be uh they'd be taken away from the from the conservatives
00:26:41.380so just by replacing sorry what is is there anything that mr polio should be doing in your
00:26:47.380view that he's not doing that to restore his fortunes because right now i just don't see it
00:26:51.380as a particularly good time to have much to say nobody's listening yeah right now people are
00:26:56.900are focused on Karni. They're focused on Karni. They're focused on Trump. As long as the Canada
00:27:02.140U.S. relationship remains top of mind, that's going to give an advantage or it seems to be
00:27:07.340giving an advantage to Trump. What Mr. Kualiev should be doing and frankly is doing is focusing
00:27:12.860on his dominant issue, which is cost of living, which is affordability. The polling all suggests
00:27:19.960that when Trump is more in the headlines,