Western Standard - Carney's chance to win, make a 'Grand Bargain' with Trump

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show

00:00:21.240 of the Western Standard. It is Thursday, May the 22nd. Last month, Mark Carney was elected

00:00:26.960 Prime Minister by Canadians who thought he was the best man to deal with U.S. President Trump.

00:00:32.240 Since then, there was one meeting between the two, and it seemed civil enough. But a lot of us

00:00:37.540 watching thought that if anybody got dealt with, it probably wasn't Trump. To me, the questions

00:00:42.680 are, what does dealing with Trump mean? What does he want, stripped of all the bluster? Is there

00:00:50.380 something to make sense of. With me today is author and political economist Brian Lee Crowley.

00:00:57.820 Brian is founder of Ottawa's leading think tank, the McDonnell-Laurier Institute, and also

00:01:02.760 of the Washington-based Center for North American Prosperity and Security. Good to have you back,

00:01:09.040 Brian. It's always great to be on the show, Nigel. Thank you, Brian. Brian, does what Trump

00:01:14.680 is doing make any sense for America, if not for the rest of the world?

00:01:18.620 Yes, I think it's terribly important, Nigel, that we get rid of this idea, which I hear 0.97

00:01:24.240 from so many people, that Trump is kind of a madman, you know, that there's no rhyme 0.79

00:01:29.800 to reason to what he does. 0.97

00:01:30.740 He gets up in the morning and he does one thing and the next day contradicts himself.

00:01:35.340 I have to say that whether you like what Donald Trump is doing or not is kind of irrelevant.

00:01:40.640 But to suggest that you can't understand what he's doing, I think it's completely wrong.

00:01:46.760 I think there's a number of threads that if you weave them together, kind of add up to what you might call the Trump doctrine.

00:01:55.360 And if you like, I'll kind of walk you through what I think those main threads are.

00:02:01.700 I think we'd love that. Go ahead, Brian.

00:02:03.360 Terrific. Well, so I think number one, and this Lou's terribly large in Trump's imagination. He

00:02:10.960 believes that America is the greatest country in the world. You know, the whole make America great

00:02:16.720 again theme is actually quite central to his thinking in the sense that he believes that

00:02:24.080 America must be the top nation in the world. That's capital T, capital N, top nation. And

00:02:31.520 Everything that he does is designed to return America to that leadership position in the world, which he believes has been lost as a result of, you know, years of inadequate leadership in Washington.

00:02:49.640 So that's number one.

00:02:50.360 Number two, you know, going with this idea that America must be top nation, you have to ask yourself, well, who's the greatest threat to America being the top nation?

00:03:02.100 That's China, without any doubt. And Trump sees China as the great geostrategic competitor to the United States.

00:03:11.080 And so he's not only trying to build up America into a predominant leadership position in the world, but he's also trying to respond to China's drive to become top nation.

00:03:27.640 And so many of the things that I think go into the Trump doctrine include doing all the things that make sure that America is never reliant on anybody else and especially not on China for any strategic minerals or materials.

00:03:46.620 think about aluminum, think about steel, think about microchips etc. He wants to end any dependence

00:03:53.820 on China and he's now using the trade negotiations that he's undertaking with other countries

00:04:00.700 to press them to reduce their dependence on trade with China. If you look for example

00:04:06.700 at the agreement that he struck with the UK while we don't have many of the details we do know that

00:04:13.340 inserted in there is the ability of America to press Britain to make sure that its trade

00:04:21.980 relationships are not imbalanced in favor of other countries and clearly China is the target here.

00:04:31.660 So that's number two. Number three I would say is Trump feels that as a result of America's loss

00:04:40.940 leadership position in the world as a result of its loss of predominance in the trade field where

00:04:50.460 he feels that America has become far too dependent on other countries for many strategic products.

00:05:01.740 As a result of that, the offshoring of many jobs, the loss of manufacturing and so on,

00:05:07.340 He believes that an important part of the American population has been left behind by this failure of

00:05:12.940 American leadership. And he's thinking particularly of the people who were kind of immortalized in

00:05:18.540 JD Vance's book, Hillbilly Elegy. You know, we're talking about the heartland of the United States,

00:05:24.940 the so-called Rust Belt states, the American South, etc., etc., all through Appalachia.

00:05:32.380 These are people who have lost economic hope in many cases, whose towns and cities have been

00:05:40.300 devastated by job losses. They've fallen victim to the fentanyl crisis is another reason why

00:05:47.180 fentanyl looms so large in Donald Trump's imagination. And he sees himself as the

00:05:53.500 tribute of these people in the American political system. And so he's determined

00:05:59.820 to do everything he can to restore hope to these communities.

00:06:04.060 And so everything that's done to, you know, kind of push back against imports,

00:06:12.120 it's not just a trade balance thing.

00:06:15.140 I believe that Trump is trying his darndest to create the conditions

00:06:20.680 in which investment comes back to the United States

00:06:23.940 in the form of jobs that will be available to the kind of people

00:06:28.860 who've been left behind by the changes of the last few decades. And the final thing I'll say,

00:06:36.300 because there are many other things we could weave into this, you know, we talked about how

00:06:42.220 make America great again is kind of a slogan, but it's also indicative of an idea that is central to

00:06:48.540 Trump's political thinking. The other slogan, which I think is profoundly important in understanding

00:06:55.420 Trump is drill baby drill. You see, people think that that's just a kind of a finger in the eye to

00:07:02.140 the green movement, the people who are against fossil fuels and so on, and it is certainly that.

00:07:07.900 But much more importantly, I think a large part of the economic strategy that Trump has been pursuing

00:07:16.540 to reduce dependence on China, to bring jobs back to the United States, is premised on the idea that

00:07:25.420 cheap energy will be a major driver of an industrial renaissance in the United States.

00:07:32.380 And he looks at the fact that the fracking revolution has turned America from a net

00:07:37.820 importer of oil. You know, in fact, you know, until quite recently, they had a law that forbade

00:07:43.500 the exporting of oil from the United States, because they were so frightened of the idea that

00:07:48.460 they might fall victim to another oil embargo and so on. And now they're the world's largest,

00:07:56.700 not only the world's largest producer of oil, they're also the world's largest exporter of oil.

00:08:01.500 And this is not only something that Trump thinks is worthwhile in its own right,

00:08:09.420 but it's a key driver of that economic renaissance which he is pursuing on behalf of

00:08:17.100 those people who were left behind by the uh political leadership of the last few decades

00:08:21.580 i think that's the trump doctrine the trump doctrine so there is actually an internal

00:08:26.860 consistency to it but if you are an american it makes sense now of course we are sitting here on

00:08:35.100 frankly what has increased to become a very clear sideline uh anxious as we should be about the

00:08:41.580 fate of some very important industries in in eastern canada um you have referred in the in

00:08:51.020 other interviews in this series to the transactional nature of politics in washington

00:08:57.340 in other words what are you never mind what you've just done for me what are you going to do for me

00:09:02.620 next now given that trump's actions have a purpose and an internal consistency that makes sense

00:09:15.100 if you are american and we are canadians trying to keep our economy together what is there

00:09:24.860 that we can do for america that is actually going to make america continue to work for us what's the

00:09:34.060 transaction well i actually think we have a lot to work with nigel now if i i think if if you were

00:09:42.860 the leader of canada what you would want to do is you would want to ask yourself the question okay

00:09:48.540 can I understand what Trump is doing? I think the answer is yes. If you understand what Trump is

00:09:55.660 doing, then the question becomes, so how could we convince Trump that Canada could contribute to

00:10:03.260 his objectives for the United States in a way that doesn't harm and indeed promotes Canada's

00:10:11.260 interest? I think that's got to be the key questions that we ask ourselves.

00:10:16.960 Absolutely.

00:10:18.420 And it seems to me that if you think back to what I've said about the Trump

00:10:25.780 doctor and what Trump's trying to achieve, there are a number of things that sort of

00:10:30.540 leap out at me as things that we could do that not only would be attractive to

00:10:36.880 Trump, but are actually in Canada's interest.

00:10:39.580 Let's think about, for example, you know, one of the things I didn't mention, but it's completely logical in the Trump thinking, as I outlined it, you know, his attempt to reduce illegal immigration and to close the borders, essentially, to unauthorized movements of people and goods, especially drugs, fentanyl, and so on.

00:11:09.580 There's no doubt that America is increasingly of the view that the Canadian border is a point of vulnerability, and I think that they are not wrong about that.

00:11:22.580 I think they sometimes exaggerate it, fair enough, but you see, I think that if Canada came to the United States and said, look, we recognize that there is some fentanyl trade that takes place, smuggling that takes place across the border.

00:11:36.380 We recognize that organized crime is laundering a lot of money from the fentanyl trade carried out in the United States, laundering that money in Canada.

00:11:45.060 So we have an organized crime problem.

00:11:47.080 We have a border security problem.

00:11:49.180 We can help you fix those things.

00:11:52.000 And those things are in Canada's interest.

00:11:54.400 We don't want to be a home for organized crime internationally.

00:11:58.200 We don't want to be a place that people come to because they think they can sneak across the border in one form or another.

00:12:06.380 and do things that endanger Americans.

00:12:11.080 That's the fast road to seeing our relationship with the United States take a complete nosedive.

00:12:19.380 So there's two things.

00:12:20.160 Number three, you know, Donald Trump, again, as part of the logic of the Trump doctrine,

00:12:25.900 feels that a lot of the rest of the world has been taking advantage of America.

00:12:30.900 and we're thinking particularly here of the NATO allies, all of whom have promised in return for

00:12:38.340 NATO's guarantee of their defense in the case of invasion by foreign powers, they're supposed to

00:12:49.140 spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense. Canada is one of the worst laggards in NATO.

00:12:55.620 Trump is looking for evidence that NATO is taking much more seriously the promises they've made in

00:13:02.240 return for America's contribution to their security guarantee. And again, I think the

00:13:08.360 decline of Canadian armed forces is a terrible story for Canada. We have lost our ability to

00:13:15.540 project Canadian power abroad in areas that we think are in our interest. And so to go to the

00:13:21.360 United States and say, look, we realize we've become what you accuse us of being, which is a

00:13:27.460 free rider on America's defense effort, and we're going to fix that. All of these things, and there

00:13:33.140 are many more I could mention, happen to be in Canada's interests and happen to be things that

00:13:38.820 would fit nicely with Trump's worldview. So I think there's a lot to work with here. I note,

00:13:45.760 by the way, that Mark Carney, our new prime minister, has been saying, look, we should

00:13:53.380 participate in America's new, you know, strategic defense initiative, the so-called Golden Dome.

00:14:00.180 And I think that is exactly taken from the playbook that I've just laid out.

00:14:05.800 Okay, because otherwise, Brian, you know, we could say that we're really back where we were

00:14:10.480 shortly after president trump was elected in november of last year in which he said you know

00:14:16.880 we've got a problem with your with fentanyl coming in and you guys need to pay more attention to

00:14:21.680 defense we've had six months to make some kind of meaningful movement on that other than saying yes

00:14:30.320 we could be a partner in the golden dome i'm not sure whether there's really been anything effective

00:14:36.240 done money has been committed i mean that's what ottawa does best but in terms of actual people

00:14:43.280 patrolling the border either physically or through some kind of remote sensing are you aware that we

00:14:50.800 have really done anything on this in six months well i i certainly agree that there has been a

00:14:57.680 vacuum of leadership as you know parliament has basically hasn't sat for the last six months

00:15:03.200 We went through a long period of, you know, the long goodbye of Justin Trudeau.

00:15:09.720 We didn't know, you know, essentially who was going to be prime minister.

00:15:14.840 I mean, our politics has been in a terrible mess, Nigel, and I think it has not served Canada well.

00:15:22.880 We have done some things. We made some of the right noises.

00:15:26.860 is, but I think America is going to want to see real delivery here.

00:15:34.620 And I've been making the case that what Canada needs to do is not to focus on the trade issue

00:15:41.980 alone, which seems to be the thing that preoccupies so many people, and I quite understand why.

00:15:48.540 But we have so many things that we can contribute to what Donald Trump's trying to do in the

00:15:53.540 United States that are in our interest, that I think we need to sit down with the American 0.96

00:15:58.420 administration and say, look, let's negotiate a grand bargain.

00:16:02.580 Let's not just talk about trade.

00:16:04.500 Let's not just talk about the border or defense, whatever, in separate conversations.

00:16:09.300 Let's bring it all together and let's demonstrate to America that we can do things that are in

00:16:14.100 their interest while also defending and promoting Canada's interests.

00:16:20.820 And I think by putting these things together in this so-called grand bargain, I think it allows us to make trade-offs.

00:16:28.740 It allows us to get things that we want because America can see that in return, we're giving them concrete things.

00:16:35.720 Your criticism, you know, we've been aware of this for months and Canada hasn't done very much.

00:16:43.320 I think it's fair to be fair as well to the government of Canada.

00:16:49.060 there's a new prime minister, they've just emerged from election, they're in a minority

00:16:54.020 situation. I think now is the time when the clock really starts ticking on America's judgment of

00:17:01.920 whether Canada is going to be a friend or someone just to, you know, manage their decline. And I

00:17:11.040 think we need to come forward with a bold strategy. It always falls to Canada to come forward with

00:17:18.160 bold ideas for managing the Canada-US relationship because, frankly, Canada just doesn't loom

00:17:23.940 that large in the American imagination, whereas America looms very large in the Canadian imagination.

00:17:30.100 That's why free trade, for example, was a Canadian idea that we convinced America to

00:17:35.280 pursue. I think it's now the time for Canada to put on that thinking cap, to think those big

00:17:43.660 thoughts about the canada u.s relationship and not be put off by donald trump's uh you know annoying

00:17:51.820 personality traits that we have to we have to think much bigger than that and uh if we can show

00:18:00.060 donald trump that we can contribute to those things that i laid out at the beginning which

00:18:04.460 he's trying to achieve for america i think there's a lot of scope for us to do something quite good

00:18:09.260 for canada so two questions uh brian as we as we come close to time one is do you think that mr

00:18:17.900 carney is going to regret saying quite as quickly as he did that it's all over the special

00:18:25.420 relationship is dead you know two solitudes uh well let's start with that one what uh is this

00:18:34.940 helpful. I guess the second question is, can the auto industry in Ontario be saved? But let's deal

00:18:43.340 with, is there a special relationship over? No, absolutely not. The fact of the matter is that

00:18:53.420 international trade is here to stay. America, 25% of the American economy depends on international

00:19:03.020 trade we're their largest or you know depending on what you're measuring either the first or the

00:19:09.900 second largest trade partner with the united states we do lots of things that they need

00:19:16.540 whatever donald trump says about not needing anything from canada

00:19:21.900 so the the special relationship is not over it is a fact of geography and a fact of history that a

00:19:28.540 four-year presidency can do little to effect. It can be damaged, but it will not be

00:19:35.580 thrown out with the trash. Now, you asked me about Mark Carney's comments during the election

00:19:44.060 campaign. I have to say that it would be important to contrast what he said during the election

00:19:48.940 campaign to Canadians with what he said in the White House to Donald Trump, because those are

00:19:54.380 different audiences. I think he clearly saw that Canadians were deeply anxious about the

00:20:01.820 relationship with the United States and what they saw Donald Trump doing. And he played on that fear

00:20:07.020 very successful. He's a successful politician now. And he, I think, won the election by suggesting

00:20:16.540 to Canadians that, yes, you know, elbows up, let's get in there, retaliate on tariffs,

00:20:22.460 do all these things which i think a lot of canadians found emotionally satisfying but

00:20:28.380 in terms of canada's long-term interest is completely counterproductive

00:20:32.780 what when he went to washington he did not say uh mr trump uh you know canada's done with you

00:20:40.220 and we have no time for you and we're gonna you know stick all kinds of tariffs on you 0.93

00:20:45.820 no he said mr trump i'm so glad to you know finally have a chance to sit down with you you

00:20:50.780 are a transformational president. I mean, he did everything he could to ingratiate himself

00:20:56.460 with Donald Trump. This is not the behavior of someone who thinks that their special relationship

00:21:00.700 with the United States is over. This is the behavior of someone who is saying, okay, now

00:21:06.860 that I'm in power and I have the ability to actually bring things to the table, make a deal

00:21:11.900 with Donald Trump, tell him that I'm going to participate in the Golden Dome, etc., etc., etc.

00:21:20.780 this is what he's going to do.

00:21:23.280 And don't forget during the election campaign that,

00:21:26.020 well, he said there'll be dollar for dollar retaliation

00:21:29.380 against American tariffs.

00:21:30.800 In fact, during the election campaign,

00:21:32.140 he was taking tariffs off,

00:21:34.560 which is something that only emerged later.

00:21:38.880 So I think he's always had two games in mind here.

00:21:43.440 One's the domestic Canadian political game

00:21:45.540 and one's managing the relationship with the United States.

00:21:49.200 And I think the signals are,

00:21:50.780 that the last thing that Mark Carney wants is to see the end of the special relationship between

00:21:56.460 Canada and the United States. And what does that mean for the auto workers in Ontario?

00:22:03.980 Well, again, I think we mustn't single out specific industries or sectors or problems in

00:22:12.220 the relationship. I'm not minimizing the fear that the auto industry faces in Southern Ontario.

00:22:24.860 But what I'm saying is the way to deal with that is as part of this larger array of issues,

00:22:32.380 there's so much momentum behind the binational sharing of the Canada-US auto relationship

00:22:42.060 that auto manufacturers in the United States have told the White House,

00:22:46.620 look, if you try and stop us importing parts and manufacturing contributions from

00:22:54.380 Canada to the United States, our production lines will come to a halt. And this is why every time

00:23:01.100 Donald Trump makes a threat, it's quickly followed by a, but nothing will happen for 90 days while we

00:23:07.740 work things he keeps pushing it off and pushing it off and pushing it off i i i think the thing

00:23:13.900 to do is not to panic to think about how to manage the whole relationship and to make sure that the

00:23:21.020 things that we really need to see in a larger relationship with the united states like you know

00:23:26.620 the continued participation of canada in uh in the auto industry like the continued participation of

00:23:33.500 Canada in the energy industry etc etc that all of these things are protected and promoted in a larger

00:23:42.140 agreement with the United States so don't panic and it makes sense and when it makes sense things

00:23:50.540 can be worked out by reasonable people Brian we are out of time thank you very much for once more

00:23:58.220 sharing your insights on Canadian-American relationships. It's a pleasure as always.

00:24:04.860 Lovely to talk to you, Nigel. For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

Western Standard - May 23, 2025

Carney's chance to win, make a 'Grand Bargain' with Trump

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