00:01:41So, of course, you know, it is true the more and more debt you accrue, you do become a slave to those who hold your debt.
00:01:52And in this budget, as most other budgets, let's be honest, like there's very few budgets we've had in the last, you know, dozens and dozens of years that didn't increase debt.
00:02:14So, essentially, there's been a criticism of Canada for many years now, at least 10 years, maybe even more, where it has not been a friendly place for capital, whether it's private capital or foreign capital, to come to.
00:02:30because the tax regime for that capital in Canada
00:02:36simply wasn't as competitive as it is in many other parts of the world.
00:02:40So capital flows essentially to where it's treated best,
00:02:44and it hasn't been treated best in Canada for a long time.
00:02:49So this budget, to its credit, actually aims to correct some of those old ills
00:02:55and create an environment that's more conducive for capital to come into.
00:05:15Uh, another way, certainly as far as execution is concerned, what I think you are saying to me is that these projects do have to get approved or else the whole thing falls apart.
00:05:35Because to allow for these tax deductions, they're going to need more debt because that's revenue that's not coming in.
00:05:42Well, let me be a little provocative here. It's not that nobody has said this before, but you usually sort of say it behind your hand. It's all very well to say we're going to build a something.
00:05:56But if it involves indigenous-owned land, or even if it just – these days it's become very fashionable just to consult with indigenous people because you ought to talk to them, whether they own the land or have a stake in it or not.
00:06:21Well, okay. Tell me about Lemoore and maybe just elaborate a little on the risk to us, the taxpayers. What's this going to look like if it doesn't work?
00:06:33you can create all the tax incentives you want for capital to come into canada we allow uh higher
00:06:41limits for capital gains as an example or you allow um you know deductions on um on capital
00:06:47expenditures but it's really all for naught if if we don't get picks and shovels in the ground
00:06:53and get projects approved uh and wet and right now the concern or what the concern has been for
00:06:58years um you know uh possibly you know uh that you know because of a dispute say with a a band
00:07:06you know that maybe that project doesn't get approved or maybe it's intra-provincial trade
00:07:11barriers or you know arguing between alberta and bc or alberta all the way to manitoba in terms of
00:07:17whether you can get a pipeline through or not um that's a problem um you know uh ultimately you
00:07:24You know, announcements are nice, but we need a lot more than just announcements.
00:07:28We need projects actually approved and picks and shuttles in the ground.
00:07:32Now, one of the first things that Mr. Carney did was to establish a special projects office.
00:07:38And that was intended to cut the corners on a lot of the kind of projects that we're talking about here.
00:08:14Other than sort of the general blessing that the Davies shipyards got.
00:08:19Yeah. And I do think that probably is happening. But where's my pipeline? Where's my electrical infrastructure? Where's my railway to the Churchill so that we don't have to export gas through Quebec? Because Quebec, there's another roadblock that we often talk about. I often talk about the indigenous bands, but darn it, Quebec is not exactly a team player in this.
00:08:46And now, by the way, we have a new government in British Columbia, which is not ideologically opposed to pipelines, but they've got their hands full on the indigenous file as well.
00:08:59So I have to wonder how long – you can borrow the money as soon as you want, but how long can Mr. Carney take to actually produce a project and say we're going to start work on it on this date and it's a close date?
00:09:22Yeah. So it's what I mentioned earlier about trust. And the lack thereof of trust probably stems from the last 10 years of just simply the lack of approvals or difficulty in approvals of getting projects done. Mr. Carney has promised to expedite that, as you mentioned. We still haven't had a lot of actual action on that.
00:09:45Now, in fairness, though, you know, to get that action, you know, it's not like you flick a switch, you know, there's certainly things that have to, there's a road that has to be paid first. And this, you could argue that this budget is a start, you know, by creating the tax regime, which allows capital to come in in a favorable manner, you know, into Canada, that's a start.
00:11:04Yeah, so the budget did cite windfalls from oil and gas revenues, which of course is primarily Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:11:14And they're using that to essentially, and it was a very nice windfall, actually, which is ironically, again, you know, caused by the Iran war, which, you know, you can chew on that in terms of what that means.
00:11:30You know, but they use that mainly to pave the way for some of these tax incentives.
00:11:38It's not being used to pay down debt, if that's what you're asking.
00:11:42You know, but it is creating room in the budget for these tax incentives.
00:11:47Now, that's also a very, you know, risky thing as well, because, you know, the reason we had this surplus was because of, largely, is because of the Iran war.
00:11:59What happens if that war ends, you know, tomorrow?0.81
00:12:28But there's one other big thing going on right now that bears into this, and that's Mr. Carney's affection for Europe, his approach to Europe, the discussion as to what kind of associate membership Canada may have with Europe one of these days.
00:12:44But I would put it to, I mean, I've written this already.
00:12:47I would put it to Peter that the Europeans are in worse shape than we are.0.97
00:13:11Well, I don't think it makes much sense at all.
00:13:13Well, what are the risks that Mr. Carney is prepared to accept in nudging up to Europe and developing closer relations?
00:13:23So, Nigel, are you asking essentially, does he really wish to acquire closer relations, possibly an EU membership or associate membership, you know, with the EU?
00:13:34Or is this mostly bargaining theater aimed at getting a better deal with the United States?
00:13:57So, but let's kind of parse through some of the facts.
00:14:01So if this is what Mr. Carney really wants, like if he actually really wants, you know, closer associations with Europe, especially if it's a membership in the EU.
00:14:13Facts. Europe is in a far worse fiscal and monetary position than Canada, okay?
00:14:21So for all Canada's faults and problems, you know, we are a much cleaner, dirty shirt than…
00:14:42Everybody's got dirty shirts on, but our shirt is a little bit cleaner than a lot of theirs.0.98
00:14:49So, I mean, just it may be evidence of that is recall that not long ago, you know, five countries in Europe were labeled as pigs, you know, which is pigs.0.95
00:15:00Yeah. So that's a very unflattering term that's used to describe the finances of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.
00:15:07But that was, you know, 10, 15 years ago now.
00:15:10And, you know, today you probably want to throw France in there too as well and probably a few other countries, you know, maybe even to some degree UK.
00:15:49You know, it's a little frightening in some regards.
00:15:53And while some in Canada may indeed have hopes and aspirations of an EU-inclusive passport,
00:15:59which we can, you know, just travel freely and so forth, that comes at a huge cost.
00:16:05You know, I mean, the regulatory burden in the EU, many would argue, and I would and I would myself, is completely incongruent with oil and gas development in Canada.
00:16:17And ultimately, if we had to adopt those regulations, it would stifle our own growth.
00:16:22So, you know, why would we want to do that?
00:16:28So, if Mr. Carney is serious about Canada joining the EU in any way, shape, or form, I would argue that the EU would gain monetary and fiscal stability.
00:16:42So, the EU would gain the monetary and fiscal stability by integrating Canada's cleaner balance sheet onto its own.
00:16:50The EU would gain substantial energy and resource assets and revenue.
00:16:55okay you know because we have it they don't um canada's economic growth may likely be hampered
00:17:02by eu regulations as as we as we spoke earlier and we can't forget about that
00:17:06so is the eu a prairie winner in such an environment um you know or what do we gain out of
00:17:13it you know other than maybe access you know to different parts of europe um so this is where
00:18:06So therefore the other possibility is statecraft.
00:18:10So is Mr. Carney merely using a closer association with the EU
00:18:15and possibly China as well, as political theater, statecraft, get a better deal.
00:18:22So this can include things like talks of buying Swedish Saab Gripens, if that makes sense.
00:18:30I'm not sure that it does, you know, with talk of pipelines to the east and the west,
00:18:35along with construction of ports in the east and the west to export energy overseas.
00:18:40And while, you know, that may make sense for diversification, you know, the pipeline to the south is a lot shorter and easier to.
00:18:49But you're not saying there's no business case?
00:18:50I'm not saying there's no business case, although I would add that if the costs of the end product become so great, whether it's due to carbon capture or just like long transmission difficulties and getting approvals, it just becomes too expensive, then maybe there isn't a business case.
00:19:12Well, come on, let's Mr. Trudeau pass on that.
00:22:07There's some risks in that one too, but the short answer is probably yes.
00:22:10But then, you know, you want to hedge some of those risks by owning precious metals like gold bullion, silver bullion, because when you mix that together with equities, it actually reduces your overall risk.
00:24:49So, a gambler's budget, funny thing going on with Europe that might turn out to be brilliant.
00:24:59Either way, we could be in trouble, but this isn't the worst budget that you've ever seen?
00:25:06No, as an investor, it's allowing capital to come, at least paving the path for capital to come back to Canada, private capital and global capital.