Western Standard - July 19, 2022


CORY ASKS： Are we heading for a federal election this fall？


Episode Stats


Length

4 minutes

Words per minute

204.58253

Word count

1,003

Sentence count

86

Harmful content

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau has been popping up unexpectedly in random locations across the country as of late, with no real clear reasons for doing so. Is it a sign that an election is coming soon? And if so, who's to blame?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 So let's dive into the rumor mill world.
00:00:02.160 Right now, the rumors are flying of a possible election being called this fall, and I mean federally.
00:00:06.860 One of the prime groups, though, perpetuating that rumor is the Conservative Party of Canada.
00:00:10.560 Spreading the rumor of a pending election is always a good fundraising tool for a party.
00:00:14.640 Donors can be tight during the doldrums between elections,
00:00:17.520 but they'll open their wallets when they feel the opportunity to change the government might be coming around.
00:00:21.520 So the party's happy to keep that rumor going, whether it's got basis or not.
00:00:25.820 But there are reasons why these rumors are taking a bit of root this time, right now.
00:00:30.000 Justin Trudeau's been popping up unexpectedly in random locations across the country as of late,
00:00:35.460 with no real clear reasons for doing so.
00:00:37.880 I mean, he's always been the king of photo ops,
00:00:39.640 but his staged appearances have had a strong scent of campaigning within them.
00:00:44.320 This last week, his staged love-in at the Calgary Stampede made news across the country.
00:00:49.100 And a couple days later, he was in a Quebec park reading stories to children.
00:00:53.140 I'm sure they helped him with the bigger words.
00:00:55.360 And the next day, he unexpectedly appeared at a church service in Ontario.
00:00:59.480 Yeah, you know, apparently he suddenly has found the Lord.
00:01:03.740 And he'd never really been known to be going to church much before.
00:01:07.080 And then yesterday, he was out picking cherries in an orchard in BC,
00:01:10.080 and he went to another children's day camp.
00:01:12.340 I guess he likes being able to sit down with people who can talk on his level,
00:01:15.160 though they probably go beyond him pretty fast.
00:01:17.580 That's a lot of careful scheduling, though, and a lot of miles to cover over just a few days.
00:01:22.660 And Brian Lilly also speculated in Sun Peace that whenever Trudeau changes his appearance,
00:01:26.600 he's heading for another election.
00:01:28.480 I mean, Trudeau's facial hair disappeared last year as he began a pre-election summer tour across the country.
00:01:33.860 Now Trudeau's rather odd new haircut is making news, but not in the greatest of ways.
00:01:39.560 Does this all really mean an election's coming?
00:01:41.820 Maybe.
00:01:42.380 That's the best word you can give it.
00:01:43.860 That's one of the most maddening frustrations of Canada's system, the instability of Parliament.
00:01:48.600 Even when governments hold a majority, they can and often do call snap elections for their own benefit.
00:01:53.940 Contenders for the throne were always forced to be on guard for a possible sudden election.
00:01:58.920 I mean, Ralph Klein, I remember this, he used to love playing coy with election dates.
00:02:02.020 His government would leak rumors of a snap election and then sit back and watch all the opposition parties
00:02:06.220 scrambling to get their campaigns together, and they wouldn't call one.
00:02:09.340 Or at least they'd wait a few months before they did.
00:02:11.060 I doubt that the Liberals have any solid plans to force an election this fall,
00:02:15.920 but they're making sure they're ready to roll if the opportunity presents itself.
00:02:19.600 I mean, Trudeau's had two minority governments in a row.
00:02:22.040 The only way he could possibly extend his tenure beyond the next election is to win a majority.
00:02:26.460 If he comes out with another minority, he's finished. 1.00
00:02:29.080 While Trudeau inked a deal with the NDP to stay in power for the next three years,
00:02:32.720 we know the deal isn't really worth this figurative paper it was written on.
00:02:36.500 I mean, if the Liberals smell an advantage, they're not going to hesitate to throw Jagmeet Singh
00:02:40.340 into the wind and hit the polls.
00:02:42.500 They don't want to stay in that partnership.
00:02:44.440 Trudeau's been wearing his welcome out for Canadians for some time now,
00:02:47.580 but it's not just his citizens in general.
00:02:49.720 It's even within Liberal circles.
00:02:51.600 I mean, ambitious MPs without his own party, they want to take their kick at the can.
00:02:56.400 And party supporters aren't so thrilled with the prospect of endless minority governments.
00:03:00.400 So if Trudeau tries to hold on for three more years,
00:03:02.220 he might find the rug pulled out from under his feet by his own party.
00:03:05.580 The election of a new leader, the CPC, might present Trudeau with an opportunity
00:03:09.260 to make one last grab for a majority government.
00:03:12.540 Governments often have called snap elections shortly after their challengers select new leaders.
00:03:16.680 It's tough to come out of a leadership race, go straight into a general election.
00:03:19.940 I mean, donors and volunteers are tired, and the new leader won't have established themselves.
00:03:24.420 It would be a long shot, but Trudeau might see it as his only shot.
00:03:28.200 I mean, Trudeau is a self-centered narcissist.
00:03:30.420 It's very conceivable that he could put his entire party in peril
00:03:33.280 as he makes a last grab for power in a snap election.
00:03:37.060 If such an election is called, we can rest assured it'll be among the most divisive
00:03:40.680 and vitriolic we've ever seen as well.
00:03:42.900 I mean, Trudeau's thrived on division, both regionally and ideologically for years.
00:03:48.180 This time his tactics are going to be spurred on by personal desperation.
00:03:51.760 He'll go scorched earth in order to, hopefully for him, gain a majority.
00:03:56.480 If Trudeau, I mean, he's got no solid legacy to leave behind.
00:03:59.360 He's caught in his father's shadow, and he wants to achieve something lasting during his tenure.
00:04:03.960 He can't do that with a minority government. 0.98
00:04:05.540 His personal vanity is more important to him, of course, than the needs of Canadians.
00:04:09.840 So will there be a fall election?
00:04:11.600 Right now, I'm going to lay my odds of that being about four to one.
00:04:14.960 Much more unlikely than likely, but not impossible.
00:04:18.200 The behavior of Trudeau indicates lately he's seriously considering it.
00:04:22.340 The only thing we can count in Canada these days is political instability.
00:04:25.260 Ooh, thank you, Tim.
00:04:30.980 Thank you.
00:04:31.600 Thank you.
00:04:32.160 Thank you.
00:04:32.200 Thank you.
00:04:32.780 Thank you.
00:04:32.860 Thank you.
00:04:32.880 Thank you.
00:04:33.700 Thank you.
00:04:34.020 Thank you.
00:04:34.420 Thank you.
00:04:37.720 Bye-bye.
00:04:38.700 Bye-bye.
00:04:40.220 Bye.
00:04:40.240 Bye.
00:04:40.820 By-bye.
00:04:45.600 Bye.
00:04:49.220 Bye.
00:04:49.560 Bye-bye.
00:04:50.100 Bye.
00:04:50.520 Bye.
00:04:51.180 Bye-bye.
00:04:51.380 Bye-bye.
00:04:52.340 Bye-bye.
00:04:52.660 Bye.
00:04:53.480 Bye-bye.