CORY ASKS： Are we heading for a federal election this fall？
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
204.58253
Summary
Justin Trudeau has been popping up unexpectedly in random locations across the country as of late, with no real clear reasons for doing so. Is it a sign that an election is coming soon? And if so, who's to blame?
Transcript
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Right now, the rumors are flying of a possible election being called this fall, and I mean federally.
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One of the prime groups, though, perpetuating that rumor is the Conservative Party of Canada.
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Spreading the rumor of a pending election is always a good fundraising tool for a party.
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Donors can be tight during the doldrums between elections,
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but they'll open their wallets when they feel the opportunity to change the government might be coming around.
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So the party's happy to keep that rumor going, whether it's got basis or not.
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But there are reasons why these rumors are taking a bit of root this time, right now.
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Justin Trudeau's been popping up unexpectedly in random locations across the country as of late,
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I mean, he's always been the king of photo ops,
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but his staged appearances have had a strong scent of campaigning within them.
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This last week, his staged love-in at the Calgary Stampede made news across the country.
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And a couple days later, he was in a Quebec park reading stories to children.
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I'm sure they helped him with the bigger words.
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And the next day, he unexpectedly appeared at a church service in Ontario.
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Yeah, you know, apparently he suddenly has found the Lord.
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And he'd never really been known to be going to church much before.
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And then yesterday, he was out picking cherries in an orchard in BC,
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I guess he likes being able to sit down with people who can talk on his level,
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though they probably go beyond him pretty fast.
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That's a lot of careful scheduling, though, and a lot of miles to cover over just a few days.
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And Brian Lilly also speculated in Sun Peace that whenever Trudeau changes his appearance,
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I mean, Trudeau's facial hair disappeared last year as he began a pre-election summer tour across the country.
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Now Trudeau's rather odd new haircut is making news, but not in the greatest of ways.
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Does this all really mean an election's coming?
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That's one of the most maddening frustrations of Canada's system, the instability of Parliament.
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Even when governments hold a majority, they can and often do call snap elections for their own benefit.
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Contenders for the throne were always forced to be on guard for a possible sudden election.
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I mean, Ralph Klein, I remember this, he used to love playing coy with election dates.
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His government would leak rumors of a snap election and then sit back and watch all the opposition parties
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scrambling to get their campaigns together, and they wouldn't call one.
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Or at least they'd wait a few months before they did.
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I doubt that the Liberals have any solid plans to force an election this fall,
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but they're making sure they're ready to roll if the opportunity presents itself.
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I mean, Trudeau's had two minority governments in a row.
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The only way he could possibly extend his tenure beyond the next election is to win a majority.
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If he comes out with another minority, he's finished.
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While Trudeau inked a deal with the NDP to stay in power for the next three years,
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we know the deal isn't really worth this figurative paper it was written on.
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I mean, if the Liberals smell an advantage, they're not going to hesitate to throw Jagmeet Singh
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Trudeau's been wearing his welcome out for Canadians for some time now,
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I mean, ambitious MPs without his own party, they want to take their kick at the can.
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And party supporters aren't so thrilled with the prospect of endless minority governments.
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So if Trudeau tries to hold on for three more years,
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he might find the rug pulled out from under his feet by his own party.
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The election of a new leader, the CPC, might present Trudeau with an opportunity
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to make one last grab for a majority government.
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Governments often have called snap elections shortly after their challengers select new leaders.
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It's tough to come out of a leadership race, go straight into a general election.
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I mean, donors and volunteers are tired, and the new leader won't have established themselves.
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It would be a long shot, but Trudeau might see it as his only shot.
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It's very conceivable that he could put his entire party in peril
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as he makes a last grab for power in a snap election.
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If such an election is called, we can rest assured it'll be among the most divisive
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I mean, Trudeau's thrived on division, both regionally and ideologically for years.
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This time his tactics are going to be spurred on by personal desperation.
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He'll go scorched earth in order to, hopefully for him, gain a majority.
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If Trudeau, I mean, he's got no solid legacy to leave behind.
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He's caught in his father's shadow, and he wants to achieve something lasting during his tenure.
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His personal vanity is more important to him, of course, than the needs of Canadians.
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Right now, I'm going to lay my odds of that being about four to one.
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Much more unlikely than likely, but not impossible.
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The behavior of Trudeau indicates lately he's seriously considering it.
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The only thing we can count in Canada these days is political instability.