CORY'S RANT： Smith’s aggressive campaign for the leadership.
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
205.53137
Summary
Danielle Smith is the favourite to become the United Conservative Party of Canada's next leader, but there's a lot more to the story than that. She's running a campaign that's focused heavily on Western alienation, and has drawn a deep line in the sand with Ottawa.
Transcript
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So in this first trimester of the UCP party leadership campaign,
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there's no doubt Danielle Smith's campaign has been capturing most of the spotlight.
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Smith has hit the ground running with strong, decisive, and controversial policy statements
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that have actually captured national media attention.
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In a race with a field of nine contenders so far, it can be tough to stand out among that crowd.
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Smith's managed to break away from the pack, at least for the moment,
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and early polls indicate that it could be paying off for her.
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Now, will this strategy pay off in the long run, though?
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Smith is focusing heavily on Western alienation and has drawn a deep line in the sand with Ottawa.
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Her proposal of a sovereignty act calling for Alberta to refuse to cooperate with any federal laws or policies
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that might adversely impact the province, it's a battle cry.
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And of course, the usual suspects in the Laurentian Canadian pundit corps were predictably infuriated.
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One could almost hear Emmett McFarlane's teeth grinding from his posting at University of Waterloo
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the idea is frankly so absurd and untenable, I'm not even sure it would create a crisis
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because it would be laughed out of court too quickly for a crisis to develop.
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What McFarlane may not understand is that the supporters being courted by Smith don't care what he thinks
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or any of the federal courts might think about this policy.
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Many of the UCP members who voted to remove Kenney as the leader of the UCP did so
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because they felt he was being too soft and standing up for Ottawa against federal incursions.
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They're itching for a battle with the feds and would love to implement something like a sovereignty act
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while saying to Ottawa, what are you going to do about it?
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Smith's not taking a secessionist stance, but she's walking a fine line near it.
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Her proposals could provoke clashes with Ottawa that might lead to a very big surge in secessionist support
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as the battle goes on. The Sovereignty Act could appeal to alienated Albertans,
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whether they're supporters of outright provincial independence or not.
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Gathering those regionalists in her camp gives her a solid support base to work from.
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These are motivated voters and workers who are going to be tough to pull away from her campaign.
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Smith is also courting those who are still furious over lockdowns and vaccine mandates.
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Kenney lost a lot of support when he had to backtrack from promises never to lock the province down again
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back in the fall of 2021. Smith's making the promise more stridently than Kenney did
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and is also vowing to oppose any efforts from the federal government to restrict citizens' rights with mandates.
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This again will garner Smith a dedicated core of supporters, assuming people trust her promises.
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Kenney broke his, and Smith has broken trust with her party membership before as well.
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The biggest handicap Smith has in this race is her own party history.
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I mean, few people have forgotten the betrayal of when she crossed the floor from the Wild Rose Party
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to the Progressive Conservatives, but many have begun to forgive her.
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So, in taking command of the news, though, with this constant releases of policy discussion,
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her political baggage has been pushed to the wayside.
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So, strategically, it's been pretty smart. Her campaign's proving to be savvy and clever.
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She's targeting and gathering motivated voters early.
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There's little sense pandering to a mushy middle in a party leadership race.
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A candidate needs to appeal to the membership rather than the province as a whole.
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And this tactic could potentially lead to Smith winning the battle.
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If Smith wins the leadership, she's going to have six months to convince Albertans
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to re-elect the UCP in the next general election.
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Now, while she's been striking all the right chords with UCP members in her leadership campaign,
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she's also giving the NDP a lot of ammunition to come after her leading up to the next election.
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It's not hard to predict what Notley's campaign strategy would be.
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Smith's going to be painted as an extremist and a separatist who wants to tear up a confederation
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And it's going to be tough to defend against those accusations.
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If Smith drags her feet, though, on following through with her promises,
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should she win the leadership of the party, the membership is going to turn on her fast.
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Members have felt used and abused enough already with Kenny's bait-and-switch leadership tactics
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They're not going to have any patience for being strung along by another leader.
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Smith is going to have to indicate she can provide action to back up the talk,
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and she's only going to have a few months to do it.
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Smith could be the populist leader Albertans have been waiting for.
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Inflation pressures and a heated federal political environment
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is likely going to lead to more incursions on provincial jurisdiction from the federal government.
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A premier with an Alberta-first stance could fare very well in such a scenario.
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Smith also, though, could create a divided environment with instability
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that might sour voters on the UCP and drive them back to the NDP.
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If nothing else, she's showing political courage and taking refreshing stances
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in a race where the establishment candidates have been remaining guarded with their policy stances.
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The UCP race is definitely not going to be boring,
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as contenders try to find some of the spotlight Smith snatched away from them.
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Slow, careful campaigns aren't going to cut it in this leadership race.