Danielle Smith has little to fear of a member’s rebellion
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Summary
The United Conservative Party of Alberta is holding its Annual General Meeting this weekend, and there are a lot of reasons to be excited about it. First, it's going to be the largest political convention in Canadian history, and for fans like me, we're fans of grassroots political participation, this is a fantastic development. Having that many engaged members taking the time and spending the money to take part in a convention, and this is between elections, indicates these members feel they can make an impact on the direction of the party. Now, the question remains, whether the impact will be a positive one, or not. Internal squabbles and division within conservative movements are hallmarks of conservative movements, and when partisans aren't going to battle with opponents in other parties, they have this habit of turning their guns and firing at each other.
Transcript
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United Conservative Party Annual General Meeting. The registrations for that UCP AGM,
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all these acronyms, is just shy of 6,000 delegates. It's going to be the largest
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political convention in Canadian history. And for fans like me, we're fans of grassroots
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political participation. I mean, this is a fantastic development. Having that many engaged
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members taking the time and spending the money to take part in a convention, and this is between
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elections, indicates these members feel they can make an impact on the direction of the party.
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Now, the question remains whether the impact is going to be a positive one or not.
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Internal squabbles and division, those are hallmarks of conservative movements. I mean,
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when partisans aren't going to battle with opponents in other parties, they have this
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habit of turning their guns and firing at each other. Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmack, Alison Redford,
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and Jason Kenney, they all left the premiership due to a collapse of support, not around the province,
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but within their own parties. Only Rachel Notley and Jim Prentice left the roles due to electoral
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losses. The threat to conservative leaders from within their parties is quite real.
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But is Daniel Smith facing an ouster this weekend as she stands up in front of the members for
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leadership review? I really doubt it. We've got factions making noise, trying to fan the flames
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of internal division within the party, and they're trying to create the impression that Smith faces a
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real threat of losing or at least getting a low level of support at the leadership review.
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None of these factions have the interests of the UCP or probably the province at heart.
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They don't think they're aiding the party by pushing Smith from the leadership. In fact,
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they're hoping the leadership is destabilized and the party will become weaker. Disgruntled and
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unemployed political leftists like Thomas Lukasik have been, yeah, you remember Fabio? Yeah,
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they've been trying to create issues through buying memberships in the party, and that he was playing
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victim when he found himself declined for his membership. But guys like him have no interest in
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supporting the party, and they never did. There's no benefit allowing these trolls to enter and work
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to disrupt things from within the organization. Parties are private entities, and they can limit
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membership to whoever they please. Yes, being grassroots focused, they should embrace as many
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members as reasonably possible. But to bring in somebody like Lukasik is just foolish. I mean,
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he's telegraphed quite clearly his only intention is to cause damage. If someone told you they plan to
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come into your house and purposely plug your toilet, would you still open the door and let me use your
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bathroom? The Lukasiks out there are vocal, but are few and far between. While folks are spreading
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rumors of organized groups of leftists flooding the convention floor to unseat Smith, there's
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little evidence of any real organization happening, and they won't have, if there are a few, they won't
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have a measurable impact on the review. Again, thousands of people. If anything, it's inspiring
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supporters of Smith to get out there, attend the meeting, and cast their ballot. Legacy Media, of course,
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is working their hardest to give the impression that a rebellion is forming within the UCP.
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Some of that's inspired by the hard left tilt that most legacy outlets have embraced since becoming
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beholden to Trudeau's subsidies to pay their bills. Another reason for fostering division,
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of course, is simple. It's just they want to build excitement and draw readers and viewers. I mean,
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blowouts are boring in both sports and politics, and it's only the close races that make for
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excitement. The next group trying to stir things up are the conservative faction I've recently referred
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to as the chronic malcontents. They just exist to oppose, and nothing any leader can do will keep
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them happy for long. They join parties and purport to support them, and maybe they initially do.
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But then they draw lines in the sand and create policy hills for themselves to die upon. As soon
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as the party leader crosses one of these lines, and there's many of them, the mercurial malcontents
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shift into opposition mode and put all their efforts into deposing the leader. If you've been in
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conservative politics long enough, you'll notice it's actually usually the same names that keep showing
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up and try to tear things down. Look, grumpy conservative members can be organized and galvanized to take
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down leaders. We've seen it many times. The work by Take Back Alberta to remove Kenny from the party
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leadership was effective and striking. Take Back Alberta now, though, is a little more than a shell
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of what it used to be, and the atmosphere of discontent just isn't in the air as it was a couple
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years ago. New groups have been emerging with new policy demands and threats to unseat the leader if
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they don't get their way. These groups have every right to do so, and working to influence policies
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while at AGMs, oh, that's how the Democratic game works. The threat to Smith's leadership is hollow,
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though. With nearly 6,000 members dedicating hundreds of dollars, crossing the province to
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take part in an AGM, it would take a very visible and well-organized machine to swing even a significant
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number of these people that vote against the leader in her second year in the role. The AGM is going to
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be an interesting event, but the battles to watch are going to be over the proposed policy amendments,
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not the leadership review. So I'm making my prediction now. Smith's going to garner over 85%
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from the members in support. I could eat crow on that, I guess. Politics are a crazy business,
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but I'm feeling pretty confident on this one. Either way, guys, I will see you at the AGM.