Western Standard - Danielle Smith has little to fear of a member’s rebellion

The United Conservative Party of Alberta is holding its Annual General Meeting this weekend, and there are a lot of reasons to be excited about it. First, it's going to be the largest political convention in Canadian history, and for fans like me, we're fans of grassroots political participation, this is a fantastic development. Having that many engaged members taking the time and spending the money to take part in a convention, and this is between elections, indicates these members feel they can make an impact on the direction of the party. Now, the question remains, whether the impact will be a positive one, or not. Internal squabbles and division within conservative movements are hallmarks of conservative movements, and when partisans aren't going to battle with opponents in other parties, they have this habit of turning their guns and firing at each other.

00:00:00.000 United Conservative Party Annual General Meeting. The registrations for that UCP AGM,

00:00:05.740 all these acronyms, is just shy of 6,000 delegates. It's going to be the largest

00:00:10.840 political convention in Canadian history. And for fans like me, we're fans of grassroots

00:00:15.580 political participation. I mean, this is a fantastic development. Having that many engaged

00:00:19.720 members taking the time and spending the money to take part in a convention, and this is between

00:00:23.700 elections, indicates these members feel they can make an impact on the direction of the party.

00:00:27.920 Now, the question remains whether the impact is going to be a positive one or not.

00:00:32.540 Internal squabbles and division, those are hallmarks of conservative movements. I mean,

00:00:37.080 when partisans aren't going to battle with opponents in other parties, they have this

00:00:39.920 habit of turning their guns and firing at each other. Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmack, Alison Redford,

00:00:45.400 and Jason Kenney, they all left the premiership due to a collapse of support, not around the province,

00:00:50.080 but within their own parties. Only Rachel Notley and Jim Prentice left the roles due to electoral

00:00:54.580 losses. The threat to conservative leaders from within their parties is quite real.

00:01:00.120 But is Daniel Smith facing an ouster this weekend as she stands up in front of the members for

00:01:06.040 leadership review? I really doubt it. We've got factions making noise, trying to fan the flames

00:01:11.560 of internal division within the party, and they're trying to create the impression that Smith faces a

00:01:16.220 real threat of losing or at least getting a low level of support at the leadership review.

00:01:20.360 None of these factions have the interests of the UCP or probably the province at heart.

00:01:25.040 They don't think they're aiding the party by pushing Smith from the leadership. In fact,

00:01:28.540 they're hoping the leadership is destabilized and the party will become weaker. Disgruntled and

00:01:33.600 unemployed political leftists like Thomas Lukasik have been, yeah, you remember Fabio? Yeah,

00:01:39.200 they've been trying to create issues through buying memberships in the party, and that he was playing

00:01:42.680 victim when he found himself declined for his membership. But guys like him have no interest in

00:01:46.900 supporting the party, and they never did. There's no benefit allowing these trolls to enter and work

00:01:51.320 to disrupt things from within the organization. Parties are private entities, and they can limit

00:01:55.820 membership to whoever they please. Yes, being grassroots focused, they should embrace as many

00:02:00.760 members as reasonably possible. But to bring in somebody like Lukasik is just foolish. I mean, 0.99

00:02:05.860 he's telegraphed quite clearly his only intention is to cause damage. If someone told you they plan to

00:02:10.160 come into your house and purposely plug your toilet, would you still open the door and let me use your

00:02:14.260 bathroom? The Lukasiks out there are vocal, but are few and far between. While folks are spreading 1.00

00:02:19.760 rumors of organized groups of leftists flooding the convention floor to unseat Smith, there's

00:02:23.780 little evidence of any real organization happening, and they won't have, if there are a few, they won't

00:02:28.360 have a measurable impact on the review. Again, thousands of people. If anything, it's inspiring

00:02:33.140 supporters of Smith to get out there, attend the meeting, and cast their ballot. Legacy Media, of course,

00:02:37.460 is working their hardest to give the impression that a rebellion is forming within the UCP.

00:02:40.740 Some of that's inspired by the hard left tilt that most legacy outlets have embraced since becoming

00:02:45.720 beholden to Trudeau's subsidies to pay their bills. Another reason for fostering division,

00:02:50.500 of course, is simple. It's just they want to build excitement and draw readers and viewers. I mean,

00:02:54.660 blowouts are boring in both sports and politics, and it's only the close races that make for

00:02:59.040 excitement. The next group trying to stir things up are the conservative faction I've recently referred

00:03:04.880 to as the chronic malcontents. They just exist to oppose, and nothing any leader can do will keep

00:03:10.480 them happy for long. They join parties and purport to support them, and maybe they initially do.

00:03:15.400 But then they draw lines in the sand and create policy hills for themselves to die upon. As soon

00:03:19.560 as the party leader crosses one of these lines, and there's many of them, the mercurial malcontents 1.00

00:03:24.000 shift into opposition mode and put all their efforts into deposing the leader. If you've been in

00:03:28.300 conservative politics long enough, you'll notice it's actually usually the same names that keep showing

00:03:31.860 up and try to tear things down. Look, grumpy conservative members can be organized and galvanized to take

00:03:37.640 down leaders. We've seen it many times. The work by Take Back Alberta to remove Kenny from the party

00:03:41.940 leadership was effective and striking. Take Back Alberta now, though, is a little more than a shell

00:03:46.500 of what it used to be, and the atmosphere of discontent just isn't in the air as it was a couple

00:03:50.660 years ago. New groups have been emerging with new policy demands and threats to unseat the leader if

00:03:55.920 they don't get their way. These groups have every right to do so, and working to influence policies

00:04:00.420 while at AGMs, oh, that's how the Democratic game works. The threat to Smith's leadership is hollow,

00:04:06.180 though. With nearly 6,000 members dedicating hundreds of dollars, crossing the province to

00:04:10.660 take part in an AGM, it would take a very visible and well-organized machine to swing even a significant

00:04:16.060 number of these people that vote against the leader in her second year in the role. The AGM is going to

00:04:20.640 be an interesting event, but the battles to watch are going to be over the proposed policy amendments,

00:04:24.400 not the leadership review. So I'm making my prediction now. Smith's going to garner over 85%

00:04:29.120 from the members in support. I could eat crow on that, I guess. Politics are a crazy business,

00:04:33.800 but I'm feeling pretty confident on this one. Either way, guys, I will see you at the AGM.

Western Standard - October 31, 2024

Danielle Smith has little to fear of a member’s rebellion

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