Western Standard - Election Night Coverage

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00:12:00.000 Good evening. I'm Derek Fildebrand, publisher of the Western Standard. You're here joining

00:12:16.400 us for our live stream of the election results for today's federal election on April 28th,

00:12:23.200 2025 we have got a great evening planned uh well i can't plan for the election results but we're

00:12:30.960 gonna give you the best of you might not like the evening you might like it who knows but we're

00:12:34.800 gonna we've got a great lineup we've got great panelists great analysts uh great reporters and

00:12:40.000 great great guests let's just start with uh those joining us tonight i've got in studio for the

00:12:46.320 the first time, and the newest panelist for the pipeline, Erika Barutes.

00:12:51.320 Hello, how are you?

00:12:52.320 I was struggling.

00:12:53.320 It's Barutes, you don't know my title.

00:12:55.320 Barutes, Barutes, Barutes.

00:12:56.320 Maybe by the end of tonight.

00:12:57.320 No, no.

00:12:58.320 It's been a while together.

00:12:59.320 So if he's the head of the political management.

00:13:04.320 Do you want me to just talk about myself?

00:13:07.320 So, department head for the applied politics and public affairs program at McAbee College.

00:13:13.320 college so we might have some new students based on the election results that want to get involved

00:13:18.840 and be a part of uh maybe some change or or how democracy is working so all right we'll see uh

00:13:26.200 we've got next in line corey morgan senior alberta columnist and uh nigel henneford uh our opinion

00:13:35.160 editor staying up late yeah now uh doing his best impression of uh wolf i'm gonna call him welfare

00:13:42.680 There's no sound.

00:13:44.840 Well, no sound?

00:13:46.120 According to the commenters, no.

00:13:48.860 Alright, studio, can we get this fixed here?

00:13:51.220 People are saying no sound.

00:13:53.500 No sound, yeah, they're saying no sound.

00:13:55.320 Still no sound.

00:13:56.900 Come on, production! 0.92

00:14:00.260 Alright.

00:14:00.900 Okay, no, yes, there is sound

00:14:03.080 and they're saying it's tinny, it's the fan.

00:14:04.520 Alright, maybe it's the fan.

00:14:06.260 Here, take the camera off me for a second.

00:14:08.220 Take the camera off me.

00:14:09.620 Alright, now bring the camera back on me.

00:14:12.140 Okay. All right. Well, introducing Welfare Wolf. Doing his best impression of Wolf Blitzer tonight in the green screen is our business. Oh, I can hear an echo back on me. That's not very good. I'll have to take my ear for a moment here. We've got Western Center business and energy reporter Sean Polzer. Let's go to Sean. Show Sean. Oh, there you are. Yeah. Say hi, Sean.

00:14:40.880 Hey, how's it going, everybody?

00:14:42.680 Yeah.

00:14:43.040 I was in Western Standard Land.

00:14:45.080 All right.

00:14:45.640 Well, so this is Welfare Wolf doing his best impression tonight.

00:14:49.980 He'll be running us through the maps, giving us results as they come in.

00:14:55.540 Do we have Dave Naylor on?

00:14:57.180 Can we get Dave?

00:14:58.000 Do we have Dave anywhere?

00:14:59.020 Okay, well, we're going to have Dave Naylor from the newsroom coming in.

00:15:01.560 We've got Jared Yager, our reporter in Vancouver.

00:15:05.380 He's going to be at the headquarters of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

00:15:10.020 We've got Jen Hodgson. 0.86

00:15:11.640 She's in Ottawa, so she'll be at the headquarters of both Mark Carney and Pierre Polyev.

00:15:15.900 She'll be spending some time at both of them, and she'll probably finish the night most likely at whichever one wins the election tonight. 0.92

00:15:23.500 Serves the most booze.

00:15:25.060 Whoever has the best booze.

00:15:26.220 Yeah.

00:15:26.860 Okay.

00:15:27.800 And we've got Chris Oldcorn, our Saskatchewan reporter.

00:15:30.960 He'll be watching things on Saskatchewan and Manitoba come to us live from Regina.

00:15:37.220 We've just got a great lineup of guests.

00:15:39.220 Nigel, can I have a list of our guests here?

00:15:43.140 Yeah, you sure can. We just happen to have a...

00:15:45.460 Actually, I should probably have one of those. Thank you. Okay. I'm very organized.

00:15:53.060 All right. Well, we've got former Alberta Minister of Justice Jonathan Dennis,

00:15:58.100 Canadian Taxpayers Federation Federal Director Franco Terrizano, former BC Premier Gordon Campbell,

00:16:03.940 uh kevin lacy uh he is with uh canadians for affordable energy nadine wellwood a ppc supporter

00:16:13.180 kent hair a um former alberta liberal mla yes they used we used to have those at one time before they

00:16:19.380 went extinct um but he was also a captain minister for the trudeau government and was a alberta and

00:16:26.080 calgary mp we've got former saskatchewan premier brad wall that's going to be a very interesting

00:16:31.540 one tonight uh john thompson one of our columnists uh yaroslav baron what was his title in the harper

00:16:37.940 government he was a policy advisor and then he was struck out on his own afterwards and

00:16:43.380 now pendulum the pendulum group they're political advisors yeah we've got db cooper with us that's

00:16:49.860 uh dr barry cooper oh it's dr no he had to scratch on yeah okay no db cooper we've got

00:16:55.460 Shea Anderson, a former Alberta NDP captive minister.

00:17:00.160 Yeah, yeah, I know.

00:17:01.020 I know.

00:17:01.480 He's NDP.

00:17:02.520 But he's got a great beard.

00:17:04.140 I got along with this guy pretty well.

00:17:05.740 He might be an outraging socialist, but he's actually a pretty good guy to have a beard

00:17:09.580 with.

00:17:10.420 And for a new Democrat, one of the more clear-minded ones you're going to meet.

00:17:14.240 So I think you'll like it.

00:17:15.680 We've got Ted Morton still?

00:17:17.180 Yes.

00:17:17.780 Okay, we've got former Alberta finance minister Ted Morton, Mike Solberg, political consultant

00:17:26.080 Daniel Dufour from the...

00:17:28.960 There's been a switch there, and one of his colleagues has taken over at his request.

00:17:32.800 No Dufour?

00:17:33.600 No Dufour, Michel Renaud.

00:17:35.440 Okay, well, we got a French guy. We got a French guy who will tell us about the Frenchies

00:17:41.200 and how they're going, okay? All right.

00:17:49.200 And we've got Professor Trevor Tucker, a professor at the University of Ottawa and a...

00:17:54.000 Frequent columnist. So really great lineup. Why don't we throw it straight to Sean here.

00:18:04.320 We've got the early vote coming in from the Atlantic provinces. Anything from Quebec yet?

00:18:11.520 No, nothing from Quebec yet. All right, we'll run it through what we've got in Atlantic so far.

00:18:15.520 What do we have here in Atlantic so far? Well, just let me get set up here. This is going to be a bit of a

00:18:24.000 technical. Well, why don't we come back? We're on. We're on. Basically what we got is most of the

00:18:29.820 Maritimes. Liberals are ahead in about 16 leading. I think they're only actually elected in one,

00:18:36.780 which would be this big blob right there. Otherwise known as Labrador. But we've got

00:18:45.220 some of these other results coming in through looks like most of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick.

00:18:52.960 It's a good thing I studied geography in high school.

00:18:56.420 I'm going to tell you about Labrador.

00:18:57.420 But we haven't gotten anywhere into Quebec yet.

00:19:01.160 Okay.

00:19:01.680 So, but there's only a few polls reporting in each, right?

00:19:04.480 These are not...

00:19:05.820 Yes.

00:19:06.800 Yeah.

00:19:07.900 Let's see.

00:19:08.480 What are we looking at in terms of polls?

00:19:10.600 511 out of 75,932 polls.

00:19:14.020 For the whole country.

00:19:15.140 About 0.1% of the vote.

00:19:18.440 Okay.

00:19:19.180 Well, so one thing we're going to be doing tonight, I'll mention it so we don't get sued,

00:19:22.960 um the cbc might not be the greatest news organization around but it has a lot of money

00:19:30.440 and therefore it has a lot of resources to build uh good tech or pay for good technology around

00:19:36.880 these election trackers so that's what we're using tonight uh let's put that lecture tracker

00:19:41.140 back up on screen so people can see it it it's well that's the elections canada yeah i'm on

00:19:45.800 elections canada now yeah you want me to go back yeah go back go back to the cbc one okay so cbc

00:19:50.640 it's a great aggregator of the data as it's coming in now where it says elected that's where the cbc

00:19:57.520 election desk has declared it so that's not us and that's not elections canada that's a call from

00:20:02.160 the cbc and whatever you think about them that stuff is going to be generally pretty accurate

00:20:07.120 there's no sense in calling it wrongly because it doesn't won't actually change it you'll just

00:20:11.200 have to make an embarrassing uh correction later so there's the cbc has no incentive to call that

00:20:15.680 wrong. So let's try to be fair where it's deserved to be fair. But let's look at, zoom in on those

00:20:21.860 numbers over there. The vote that's in so far, it's not a lot yet. I'd say less than 70,000

00:20:28.440 ballots counted. So it's very, very early. And the Liberals ever so slightly ahead in total vote,

00:20:36.080 48.9%, oh, 49%. The Conservatives at 45.2%. NDP keeping up with where they've been in the polls,

00:20:44.580 which is dead, 4.4%. Atlantic has never really been their strongest area, though, eh, Nigel?

00:20:52.500 No, this actually tends to be liberal territory. I just have the numbers here from the previous

00:20:58.100 election. This is what we've got to compare it with. In 2021, Nova Scotia elected eight out of

00:21:05.940 11 MPs as liberals, 3 as conservatives. New Brunswick, 6 out of 10 as liberals, 4 out of 10

00:21:17.300 as conservatives. Newfoundland and Labrador, 6 out of 7 as liberals, 1 conservative, and Prince Edward

00:21:24.140 Island, all 4 MPs were liberals. Yeah, the NDP, Erica, have not traditionally been a major player

00:21:32.380 in the Atlantic. Under Jack Layton, they had some breakthrough in like the Acadie Bathurst area.

00:21:38.940 They were able to appeal to some of the non-Quebec French vote. They've had some presence,

00:21:44.460 but it's traditionally old school liberal and very old school, I won't even say conservative,

00:21:48.540 it's old school Tory. Yes, yeah, definitely. I think this is, I mean, I go back to 2015,

00:21:54.220 this is looking a lot better for the Conservatives than it was then. But you're right, it's going to

00:21:59.580 be kind of a two-man races the entire night is going to be and and you know it might be better

00:22:06.380 for the conservatives uh than maybe anticipating which is kind of nice because they they close so

00:22:11.820 early we won't really have any trends to go off of until we get ontario and quebec you know erica

00:22:17.260 not to be um patronizing to the herring jokers but it is uh i guess i just have haven't i um but you

00:22:25.340 know they tend to be very family orientated there and if granddad was a liberal then the odds are

00:22:30.780 that the grandson is going to be a liberal as well we did a we did some bowling back there i

00:22:36.940 can't remember which year but we had around saying here are some policy positions do you agree with

00:22:41.180 this do you agree with this you know everybody said oh yeah we're that's exactly what we think

00:22:46.300 well you must be a concern oh no no we always vote liberal so that's what you're getting a

00:22:50.460 generational there with maybe sometimes no uh explanation why hey listen i live in edmonton

00:22:58.620 so i get that a lot yeah uh actually the atlantic uh this was somewhat in old ontario as well

00:23:05.420 um it was religious you know the tories would be the protestant party the liberals would be

00:23:11.260 the catholic party and then there'd be some people who would switch based on actual politics

00:23:15.660 not who won the election but it was it was very much a cap of protestants for a long time i don't

00:23:20.780 think that bears much anymore other than that you know families that were stridently protestant

00:23:27.740 might tend to still be conservatives but not because they're protestant from the orange lodge

00:23:34.060 well the orange lodge must be ndp now that should be the name of like a donor club for the ndp the

00:23:39.900 orange. That'll go over the heads of some. So what have you guys seen then as strategies

00:23:47.980 in order, I mean, NDP aside, for that vote split of these generational issues? Like from your time

00:23:56.940 even with harbour government, like what was the angle then for Atlantic Canada to try and

00:24:02.220 convert generational voters? Tell you what it wasn't, it was you didn't mess around with 0.98

00:24:08.460 with employment and assurance qualification.

00:24:10.960 That one cost Mr. Chrétien dearly in the 97 election.

00:24:15.220 What have you got, Derek?

00:24:16.360 Okay, so right now in the Atlantic,

00:24:21.960 let's get the screen up there, the numbers.

00:24:24.820 The Liberals have been declared elected in three.

00:24:30.860 Does the leading, what it says, leading and elected,

00:24:33.420 is the leading include the elected

00:24:35.520 or is that a separate category?

00:24:37.320 Meaning it's 10.

00:24:38.460 elected and leading and elected elected leading and elect okay uh the conservatives are leading

00:24:43.500 11 leading uh some history when harper won his majority he won 11 seats in atlantic um

00:24:52.060 that is um i mean that's not winning it but that's a strong enough presence i remember

00:24:58.180 you know early very early in the evening when justin trudeau won his majority of 2015

00:25:02.760 he won every single seat in the east and it was immediately apparent apparent it was just a

00:25:08.280 red tide coming from the atlantic and you're like well we don't know what else is coming but if you

00:25:13.560 want every single seat that was showing it was bad momentum this uh again still a ton of polls to

00:25:20.440 close way too early to call most of those seats but the conservatives are leading in 11. that's

00:25:26.120 probably a good early uh sign for polio well they only won in eight in 21. so if they're leading in

00:25:33.000 11 yes a good early sign

00:25:36.200 I have to note for the record

00:25:39.800 our director of operations for the company Michelle Cundy

00:25:43.700 she was sick last week now her mom's sick she's staying with her 0.99

00:25:47.500 she's demanded that Michelle Cundy and Mama Cundy get a shout out tonight 1.00

00:25:51.540 so I'm going to do that but that comes at the cost of

00:25:55.260 she's going to have to be on coffee duty for the next couple weeks 1.00

00:25:59.220 I think we should just do it

00:26:01.900 I wanted to make one little note here, and that is that Conservatives are leading in

00:26:10.620 two out of three Newfoundland writings that they didn't have before.

00:26:14.940 Oh, two pickups.

00:26:16.220 Because I looked at the map over here, and I've got last map, and you can see

00:26:25.420 that they only had one of the four seats, five seats on the main island there. Now this

00:26:35.180 is all blue except for the Avalon there. Okay. Novus Corsi is about the same. Our New Brunswick

00:26:43.420 we haven't seen yet. Why don't you step out of the way so we can see them and zoom in.

00:26:47.420 The last election so right now this is all blue with the exception of the Avalon here

00:27:09.920 which is the gooseneck is what they call it in Newfoundland Nova Scotia looks pretty much the

00:27:16.580 same as I can recall. I guess we've got eyes on New Brunswick here and then we're going to start

00:27:20.120 heading up the gas bay as we go along. So let's compare it to CBC. And. Stand in front of Quebec.

00:27:30.220 Stand in front of Quebec so we can see the back. Your other Quebec. The other Quebec. There you go.

00:27:34.740 I'm getting I'm working my way. Okay. So these dark colored ones are the ones that have been

00:27:40.860 elected and then the other ones are leading so you can see that the liberals have really only

00:27:46.380 been elected in a couple of them yeah now keeping in mind uh it probably it looks more conservative

00:27:51.740 than it actually is because conservatives tend to do better in rural ridings which

00:27:55.900 are obviously bigger on the map uh leftist parties will do better in more urban

00:27:59.900 ridings that are smaller on the map also prince edward island uh inexplicably has four seats its

00:28:05.180 population entitles it to maybe one and a half but it's got it's it got a pretty sweet deal in

00:28:10.460 the constitution when it entered confederation a deal that we did not get in the west um so they

00:28:15.500 get four seats despite their population doesn't hasn't changed much no no well that'll be discussion

00:28:22.700 uh for tomorrow possibly it actually looks like in new brunswick looks like the conservatives

00:28:26.460 have picked up this uh big one uh matahuasca restagouche

00:28:34.940 we're gonna get better as we get west say it more french than that

00:28:43.900 matahuasca matahuasca matahuasca restagouche okay i don't know that sounds more italian but

00:28:49.980 anyway so that's a pickup yeah concern itself a very slim lead there yeah so prince edward

00:28:55.580 island pretty much the same nova scotia pretty much the same shaking out newfoundland picked up

00:29:01.260 one two three so i want to point out this one let's uh go back to new brunswick come back to

00:29:06.700 new brunswick i want you to zoom in on that dark red one there yep yeah where they've been elected

00:29:11.500 that's acadete bathurst so we were just talking about that that used to be an ndp constituency

00:29:15.980 the ndp won that several times under jack layton uh even before his big sweep uh the ndp used to

00:29:22.460 to win that seat. The NDP there

00:29:24.480 right now is at only 4.6%

00:29:26.640 of the vote. They used to win that

00:29:28.380 constituency. They're at

00:29:30.140 4.6%. They're only

00:29:32.460 twice the vote of the PPC

00:29:34.500 at 2.2% right now. That

00:29:36.420 is bad news for

00:29:38.300 Pierre Polioff, I think, Corey.

00:29:41.540 Sorry.

00:29:42.180 If you weren't listening.

00:29:44.660 Sorry to throw in somebody else to

00:29:46.440 post it from Nova. Sean Fraser

00:29:48.080 is trailing by

00:29:49.900 30 votes. That guy likes to steal our 0.52

00:29:52.380 Yeah, Central Nova.

00:29:56.580 Somebody had asked one of the commenters.

00:29:57.820 That's why I was looking that up at the time,

00:29:59.200 and it's a horse race going on in that one right now, actually.

00:30:03.060 And Sean Fraser, for those who might not remember,

00:30:05.080 he said he was stepping away to spend more time with his family,

00:30:08.100 and then he spent some time with it. 1.00

00:30:09.380 They thought, these guys are assholes. 1.00

00:30:10.620 I'm going to go run for office politics. 1.00

00:30:12.440 Or it might have been related to the polls swinging back up for the Liberals.

00:30:15.500 I'm not sure.

00:30:16.180 Which riding was he in?

00:30:17.260 Central Nova.

00:30:18.200 Central Nova.

00:30:18.860 but there's a lot of people who don't think highly of them for that opportunism and uh

00:30:23.020 it might reflect in this poll it's gonna be one to watch actually i think that's the thing that

00:30:27.260 people don't care about your ideology when you're like i'll just uh get rid of you guys if you're

00:30:31.980 not advantageous to me but to your question derek um yeah this is i think the the biggest challenge

00:30:38.860 for pierre as we start to move left is that votes but we need like the conservatives need

00:30:45.260 jay meet saying in the ndp to perform better uh i think we're going to see that a lot with some of

00:30:50.060 the votes especially in alberta when we eventually get there yeah um but yeah it's not a good time

00:30:55.980 i'm just looking across some of these uh some of the constituencies that have the liberals leading

00:31:00.780 right now uh so there's um jeez um okay no that's a bad example but you're just as bad as me i'm

00:31:13.980 I'm looking, okay, Cumberland, Closestershire.

00:31:17.020 Clumberland, that's got to be Prince Edward Island.

00:31:19.520 No, no, no, that's Nova Scotia.

00:31:22.640 Liberals are at 52, Conservatives at 40.6.

00:31:25.820 The NDP is only at 5.2.

00:31:27.880 Traditionally, the NDP should be strong enough that that would be neck and neck,

00:31:30.940 and the Conservatives could take that in a nail-biter. 0.72

00:31:33.940 Right now, they're 12 points behind.

00:31:39.080 That's going to be a lot for them to catch up on.

00:31:41.520 Still a lot of polls to close there. 0.76

00:31:42.800 Maybe it could go.

00:31:43.440 but based on that trend line that should be a competitive conservative seat if the NDP had a

00:31:48.980 heartbeat at its traditional levels right now they don't the interesting thing though is I mean last

00:31:54.080 election we saw the PPC stealing enough percentage to make a difference in some areas and it was about

00:32:01.240 like now you also see a relevance from the PPC so it should be naturally a more higher boost for

00:32:09.660 conservative but like you said with this dying orange it might impact some of these what should

00:32:16.060 be neck and neck ridings you know to your point the nova scotia riding of sydney victoria in the

00:32:21.660 last election if you took the ppc vote and added it back to the the conservative party of canada

00:32:31.900 the cbc would have won that by more than 100 votes now you can't always make it quite so

00:32:37.100 need there are other reasons why people might have voted ppc and still not voted conservative

00:32:42.300 if the ppc wasn't there but i mean this is the area we're talking about this is one of the

00:32:47.660 one of the seats that will turn on the on an erratic vote but all together i think there's

00:32:52.940 probably 15 to 20 writings that turned on a ppc taking votes away from the conservative uh just

00:33:01.420 so production knows everyone's i'm going to bring my own map in once in a while so i don't have to

00:33:05.580 tell production what to do or tell welfare wolf i'm still learning yeah uh all right our first

00:33:12.620 guest is going to be uh kevin lacy uh so kevin lacy's not here yet but uh this guy knows atlantic

00:33:17.900 politics very well uh he's the best kind of atlantic guy uh because he's in alberton now

00:33:22.780 uh so he's a former former eastern bastard uh but knows atlantic politics very well uh he's he's

00:33:29.100 going to be in um about five minutes here uh so why don't we check in is that production is dave

00:33:37.020 from the newsroom ready yeah all right let's go to dave in the newsroom for a moment uh just check

00:33:41.740 in on what poor dave is doing dave what do you got for us that's lonely out here in the newsroom

00:33:50.300 derek well actually you can see the camera you can see dave background back there wave dave

00:33:56.780 there you go hey babe it's just me and three boxes of pizza uh so yeah we're having fun with our

00:34:03.660 our live blog uh at the moment it was uh quite the excitement when it was all tied up in the

00:34:08.540 maritimes the tories obviously performing a little bit better than they did in the 2021 election and

00:34:16.540 you know now the next big thing to happen is the polls closing in quebec and ontario and uh you

00:34:23.500 know we'll that'll be the that you know that's going to tell a lot so uh that's the next big

00:34:29.420 thing to keep an eye out for okay uh we also got to work on your sound if it's a bit muffled uh

00:34:34.620 wouldn't be able to get back in i'm not sure what to do about that but it's in your hands

00:34:40.300 okay um so yeah newfoundland is actually looking fairly conservative right now uh liberals declared

00:34:47.020 elected in labrador conservatives uh declared elected central newfoundland liberals in avalon

00:34:53.500 but leading in Terra Nova, the peninsulas, and Long Range Mountains.

00:34:58.740 Here, actually, let's just, where's my thing?

00:35:02.260 There it is.

00:35:03.600 There it is.

00:35:04.280 All right, here's the new fees.

00:35:06.060 All right, so we'll see.

00:35:07.500 I think the Conservatives had, what, one incumbent seat?

00:35:10.440 Yes.

00:35:11.380 Okay, so they're looking at two pickups, potentially, there.

00:35:15.440 Liberals leading in St. John's East here.

00:35:19.080 That, yeah, no, the Liberals are leading pretty strongly there.

00:35:23.500 but yeah they're looking at two pickups in newfoundland um that's traditionally strong for

00:35:28.620 the conservatives conservatives not been traditionally very strong in newfoundland

00:35:32.140 uh it looks like only two in nova scotia though but one two three four five new brunswick this is

00:35:38.540 not a bad start if these trends hold on for the conservatives exactly it's uh i mean it's too early

00:35:44.620 to tell much but everybody i mean let's face it the polls have been hanging over us like a dark

00:35:51.260 cloud now for about three weeks and as we came into this room i think a lot of us thought well

00:35:56.620 how are we going to get through six hours of talking about how terrible it is the answer is

00:36:02.460 it may not be as terrible as we think and it's going to be interesting in a few hours time to

00:36:06.860 actually talk about how close the polls did or didn't come but right now this is not a conservative

00:36:14.220 wipeout this is conservatives actually looking to pick up a seat in newfoundland maybe in nova

00:36:20.060 scotia as well uh sorry in new brunswick as well i mean let's give this thing a chance

00:36:26.860 are you coming with the optimistic tone today well i am because uh i have money riding on it

00:36:33.340 i have to talk about my position but yes no i've thought all along with something really funny

00:36:38.780 about the numbers because here is going out there having these huge rallies and yet the polls say

00:36:45.580 that he's about to lose this, where Mr. Carney goes and has pea and cucumber sandwiches with

00:36:51.100 150 people, and there he is, that's the leader, and the Liberals are going to take this. So I

00:36:59.020 just cannot imagine how this is all going to fit together in the end.

00:37:02.140 Well, this is a good time for us to get our money on the table, so to speak, with our predictions.

00:37:09.580 Guys, the pollsters aren't intent, unless it's Frank Graves, the pollsters aren't intentionally

00:37:14.060 lying uh because they look bad and it's bad for their business if they're wrong if they cannot

00:37:20.220 accurately predict the election it's bad business no you don't want to hire them afterwards because

00:37:25.020 they're seen as less credible um so if you blow it you have to spend years trying to recover that

00:37:29.980 uh in your reputation so i don't think these guys are actively lying the polls on aggregate

00:37:35.420 are showing the uh the liberals ahead um abacus has showed the conservatives really closing it

00:37:40.060 i've generally gone into tonight before i saw any results thinking the conservatives have one in

00:37:46.360 three shot of winning government of some form uh because i i think there's a sick you know people

00:37:52.840 have talked about the shy tory voter there's us i think a huge uh enthusiasm gap here because half

00:37:58.320 the people telling pollsters that they intend to vote liberals liberal said they were voting

00:38:02.600 conservatives six months ago those people can't be burning with passion when they're flipping

00:38:07.700 between parties whereas conservatives right now are white hot angry and ready for change so i

00:38:14.820 think the conservatives are likely to outperform the polls that doesn't mean the polls are wrong

00:38:18.580 but that i i expect you look at the rallies and then what i just said about the enthusiasm gap

00:38:24.660 i think the conservatives will outperform the polls but you can only outperform it so much

00:38:28.820 you might get a two percent bounce three if you're really lucky basically closing it on a margin of

00:38:35.380 error which the conservatives though to their defense are pretty darn close in some of the

00:38:40.340 polls i think you know i am leaning into the oh tomorrow's gonna suck um but i do think that there

00:38:51.700 is a lot of quiet conservatives out there and there's a lot of people when i think how many

00:38:56.020 polls i've how many phone numbers have showed up on my phone that i don't know and i didn't answer

00:39:00.660 the people that answer on landlines are baby boomers and they typically vote

00:39:06.280 liberal so I do right but there they've shifted to voting liberal in the last

00:39:14.260 little go here so I do think that there is this quiet group now like am I just

00:39:30.100 picking who wins. Yeah, who's going to win tonight? Your early prediction. Before you

00:39:35.200 even saw this, like, what? I thought it was a liberal majority. Okay. Cory? Liberal minority.

00:39:40.180 Liberal minority. Conservative minority. Conservative minority. What does Welfare Wolf

00:39:47.440 say? I was leaning towards the liberal minority, but after seeing some of these numbers coming

00:39:52.780 from the amount of Canada. Just to give an update though, and I'm glad somebody brought up Central

00:40:00.320 Nova because we've got an interesting one to watch because it's a real horse race. And this

00:40:03.240 is a grudge one because Sean Fraser was considered an up and comer in the Trudeau government. He was

00:40:08.360 a senior cabinet minister. He did that opportunistic back and forth. He should

00:40:12.360 have been though, as a senior minister, very strong there as an incumbent. 45 of 229 polls

00:40:18.100 reported the conservative bryson jenkins is leading with 47.7 over sean fraser at 45.9

00:40:26.500 and i don't know much more we can read into this the ndp is completely irrelevant on

00:40:30.420 and the ppc uh is at 48 votes just to throw that in there too so that this is a two-party race

00:40:36.580 and uh we're seeing i think some personal opinion or or you know the the individual candidates

00:40:42.900 value is coming out that the polls didn't reflect back going in do your numbers reflect anything

00:40:47.540 or whether this is rural or urban uh this is central nova so it's kind of i don't know the

00:40:52.500 cities in there but i mean it's a large riding so it came in right yeah we're only at 50. that's

00:40:58.420 right but it's it's a good trend with that many coming in i hope that i eat my words guys it's

00:41:03.060 like i'm not hoping for well it's not what you want it's just what you think it's just

00:41:09.140 who did the exact same thing she said she was going to leave to spend time with family but 0.93

00:41:12.180 bounce back and i was the family i was very offended i want those two you were planning 0.99

00:41:16.420 but you know this this number of 3.4 for the ndp i think is is the real story here like um even if

00:41:23.300 assuming that those went to the liberal then i mean it's kind of neck and neck now but uh it

00:41:29.620 wouldn't even be close the ndp the margin of error actually you know the 50 out of 29 that's you know

00:41:36.020 it's only 50 out of 29 but that's actually a heck of a size sample how would you feel if

00:41:41.620 you were the you know if you're the underdog and already fit nearly a quarter of the polls had uh

00:41:47.220 had reported you you're feeling a little anxious unless you knew something about the character of

00:41:51.220 the ones who still have to come in oh that's actually an optimistic look on them so dave

00:41:56.500 naylor in the newsroom uh just sent a message he's predicting conservative minority uh could happen

00:42:02.900 uh i think the minority government is going to be a really weird one tonight though because the

00:42:07.380 The NDP have just melted down, but it's still entirely possible.

00:42:11.260 The block is expected to have not a great night as well,

00:42:14.020 but probably not facing as much of a wipeout as the NDP.

00:42:18.020 The block is still going to be there.

00:42:19.120 I don't think it's possible.

00:42:20.540 That's why.

00:42:21.400 The block is still going to have official party status after tonight.

00:42:24.560 The NDP, well, we don't know yet, but I mean, based on this,

00:42:28.440 it's not looking too good.

00:42:30.840 As Erica put it, the NDP might be the new margin of error in polls.

00:42:35.100 So Kevin's in the lobby scene.

00:42:36.360 Oh, okay.

00:42:37.020 Well, let's bring in our next guest, our first guest, Kevin Lacey is, he is there.

00:42:48.280 Okay, Kevin Lacey is with the Hyde Park Group, but he was also a comrade of mine at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

00:42:55.120 He was the Atlantic Director, so responsible for all four Atlantic provinces in that organization.

00:43:01.540 but making him an even better Atlantic Canadian is the fact that he's now

00:43:06.400 actually an Albertan. So that's what happens to the best of them.

00:43:10.260 Kevin, thank you for joining us.

00:43:12.120 Thanks so much for having me.

00:43:14.340 Oh, your sound is a little funky. Say hi again.

00:43:17.820 Hi, Derek. How are you?

00:43:19.220 There you go. Okay. I love his Atlantic twang.

00:43:24.860 I just put it on for the night, Derek.

00:43:27.580 Come on, dance monkey. 1.00

00:43:28.620 all right so we've got early results coming in tons of riding still not called but we've got

00:43:35.580 the leading elected ones what's your initial impression on the results in the Atlantic

00:43:43.160 provinces so far well look if you were tuning in tonight to see the conservatives fall off the map

00:43:48.360 there's some really encouraging results here early on the first one I look at that long-range

00:43:52.800 Mountain seat. That is traditionally a liberal seat. It's Gail Hutchings was the MP prior to now.

00:43:59.180 She's held the riding for three terms. Sorry, which riding is that? The riding of Long Range

00:44:05.340 Mountains in Newfoundland. It's on the west coast of the province. Yeah, here, I'm going to bring in

00:44:10.500 a map here. Here, kick my face off of here. I'm going to bring the map in. Yeah. And so when you're 0.95

00:44:17.140 seeing conservatives do well here. This is untraditional vote. This is areas that the

00:44:22.480 conservatives have not really competed in the past. In fact, in about 2015, the liberals got

00:44:28.580 about 75% of the total vote in that riding. So that's one of the pickups. The second one is the

00:44:36.060 one in Newfoundland, that Terra Nova seat. That's the seat that just as you cross the peninsula

00:44:41.020 from newfoundland um you get uh that riding and that riding was held by anthony germain the former

00:44:47.500 cbc radio host head of the he hosted i think the house if anyone ever listens to that uh anywhere

00:44:53.580 anymore um on cbc and he's running in that seat so those two ridings are really key for conservatives

00:45:00.860 and i think might be a harbinger we saw in 2015 with atlantic canada that when the stephen harper

00:45:07.500 was wiped out kind of atlantic canada kind of led the way uh in that election because all 32 seats

00:45:14.220 went liberal and it kind of showed you what was going to happen as we went across the country but

00:45:18.620 there's some really good signs here the other one to look at derek is south shore nova scotia um um

00:45:25.580 seat where rick perkins the member of parliament conservative member of parliament is running

00:45:30.220 that riding the ndp candidate failed to get their papers in and there's no ndp candidate in that

00:45:36.540 riding so that's one that i think a lot of us had kind of wiped out as a result they're separated by

00:45:42.140 just a few votes it's 47.5 to 47.4 uh for rick perkins the conservatives leading by a nose hair

00:45:50.940 yeah look rick's a former head of uh public relations the nova scotia liquor corporation

00:45:56.540 um and he's got really good marketing um skill and background in that riding uh but that's one

00:46:02.940 where as you talk about these splits as we start to get into ontario just flip back to liberal

00:46:10.220 night but the fact that we're even talking about that riding tonight is a good sign for the

00:46:14.620 conservatives because traditionally the ndps score somewhere between 15 to 20 of the vote

00:46:20.940 uh in that riding um the last one derek i'd ask you to look at is the riding of mass of matta

00:46:27.180 Madawaska-Restagouche. And that seat... Oh, that's a... How do you say that last part again?

00:46:32.600 Madawaska-Restagouche. Oh, okay. I was over-frenchifying. I was like,

00:46:36.920 we should go. We had it darn near now. You weren't here when I butchered that one earlier.

00:46:42.760 That riding there, you see the Conservatives doing well. That's in an area that... I mean,

00:46:47.380 the Conservatives should get entirely wiped out here. So the fact that they're even

00:46:50.880 getting vote in this riding is really, really good. So I think if you're watching this tonight,

00:46:57.180 as a conservative early on, there's some really encouraging signs here, and I wouldn't quite,

00:47:03.960 as we get into Quebec and Ontario, there's some signs here that the vote is coming in

00:47:08.880 in some of these areas that you wouldn't necessarily expect it to.

00:47:12.020 I want to ask you about, oh, actually, we're going to go to our first Quebec one in a second.

00:47:15.200 I was going to say.

00:47:15.980 Yeah, but first, Acadie Bathurst, we were talking about this before you came on.

00:47:19.680 The NDP used to win this for at least several terms under Jack Layden and maybe Mulcair,

00:47:26.460 i'm not sure but the ndp uh despite this used to being a fairly any an ndp stronghold ndp is down

00:47:32.700 to 4.8 percent uh that does not pretend well for the conservatives across the country yeah that

00:47:38.460 and that was a personality riding ivan godin was the was the member of parliament in that in that

00:47:43.340 riding um and he held it for two terms and derek i think what you're gonna you see across the region

00:47:48.700 is that ndp vote entirely falling off now traditionally that vote goes almost entirely

00:47:54.060 to the liberals but even look at conservative seats if you take a look at the riding of st

00:47:59.020 um st john st croix which is a renamed riding of new brunswick southwest held by conservative mp

00:48:05.820 john williamson that's an area where the ndp two elections ago we're getting 15 to 18 of the vote

00:48:12.860 and that's continued to fall and as it has the liberal vote has increased but as you see tonight

00:48:18.300 what what the liberals are really banking on is that ridings like that that were traditionally

00:48:23.260 conservative that that NDP vote would entirely come over to to their side of the ledger and that

00:48:29.860 they would be competing in more conservative seats but as you see here in Atlantic Canada

00:48:33.660 that simply hasn't happened it's we've essentially ended up with a status quo and sure as we count

00:48:39.480 more ballots there's going to be a little bit of changes here and there but that and that the

00:48:46.140 the liberal hope of that NDP vote entirely coming in on their side is not playing out in the early

00:48:52.080 results okay uh we're gonna go to sean real quickly for the first results uh from quebec

00:48:57.760 there's literally two polls from a single riding in quebec but it's something new and shiny so

00:49:03.040 let's go to welfare wolf for the update well uh no surprise block is ahead 219 votes 46 right here

00:49:11.680 Sorry, I want you to say the name of this contingency.

00:49:15.680 Gaspésie l'île de la Madeleine.

00:49:19.680 I'm sorry.

00:49:21.680 Gaspésie l'île de la Madeleine.

00:49:27.680 If we hit a French audience, they'd be pissed off at this point. 1.00

00:49:35.680 Yeah, that's me.

00:49:37.680 What's noteworthy here, I think, is PPC and the NDP are tied at six votes each, 1.3% of the vote.

00:49:46.620 You know, conservatives were probably not expected to do as well there, 17%, liberal 33%.

00:49:53.260 That's hardcore block territory, though, right, Erica?

00:49:56.540 Like, that's, they're not, all right, conservatives are never winning there.

00:50:00.640 No, but I'll take the block over the liberals any day for numbers. 0.99

00:50:05.220 Yeah.

00:50:05.820 Okay, well, let's go back to Kevin while we still got him.

00:50:09.140 Kevin, how long do we have you for?

00:50:11.040 You can have me as long as you want, Derek.

00:50:13.200 Put on here, baby.

00:50:15.320 All right.

00:50:17.940 All right.

00:50:19.400 I mean, let's take a look at Prince Edward Island.

00:50:22.620 I mean, no surprises there so far.

00:50:26.920 No surprises.

00:50:27.580 The only Conservative MP that has been elected in recent memory was in the far riding of Egmont.

00:50:35.900 I'm sorry, the far riding of Egmont.

00:50:38.160 And that's where Gail Shea held the seat. 1.00

00:50:39.720 She was a former provincial minister, but in 2015 was almost wiped out.

00:50:44.100 Really, the Conservatives hasn't been in competition there at all.

00:50:47.160 Now, they did nominate some good candidates.

00:50:49.120 In the riding of Malpec, Provincial Cabinet Minister Jamie Foxx is running in the seat.

00:50:53.980 But I don't expect that the Liberals tend to, the Liberal vote tends to come in for all four each and every election.

00:51:03.320 So it's kind of playing as we would expect it to.

00:51:07.480 Sorry, Egmont, Egmont, the westernmost constituency in Prince Edward Island.

00:51:13.900 They're in an exact tie right now.

00:51:16.540 28 out of 99 polls coming in.

00:51:18.920 99 polls because these are very small constituencies.

00:51:21.700 Each vote counts for approximately four Albertans.

00:51:25.740 We'll get there.

00:51:26.420 We'll get to that.

00:51:27.180 Oh, we will.

00:51:29.460 We will.

00:51:30.880 So, but they are, okay, no, they're no longer exactly tied.

00:51:34.820 No, they were exactly tied a moment ago.

00:51:36.140 But 47.5% for the Liberal, 47.2% for the Conservative.

00:51:41.840 Is that a surprise for you?

00:51:44.360 Or do you still expect that to stay Liberal tonight?

00:51:47.720 These, they traditionally go all four.

00:51:50.540 it now in this one and a lot of these maritime seats we're talking about and even in that one

00:51:55.920 there's quite a difference in where the polls are for example that's where the air the city

00:52:00.440 of Summerside resides so that vote that tends to vote more liberal than some of the rural areas

00:52:06.540 which is likely what you're seeing in that vote early on Derek the other riding I'd kind of point

00:52:12.440 you to is Miramichi Grand Lake which is in New Brunswick Mike Doss or the Conservatives have

00:52:18.480 held the seat there was a former provincial cabinet minister who was holding it he mysteriously quit

00:52:26.260 the race and there was a battle internal battle between a number of candidates in that riding

00:52:32.700 and there was some belief that maybe that riding would be thrown kind of up in the air Lisa Harris

00:52:38.120 a former provincial member of the legislature is running for the liberals early again early on that

00:52:45.280 one's also going back to the conservatives and it's writings like this where you kind of watch

00:52:50.120 we should be watching as we head into the bigger areas into ontario because you would expect that

00:52:56.920 once you've lost you know a prominent candidate or prominent name this and added a good liberal

00:53:03.200 candidate that these writings would start to slide particularly in an environment where

00:53:07.360 we're keep being told that the liberals are going to do so great in the election

00:53:11.220 um again holding it for the conservatives um um one in one more riding so the conservatives are

00:53:18.580 essentially coming out pretty much what they went in with which is a pretty good sign as we head

00:53:22.940 across the country uh that writing just flipped back liberal but by just a few votes it's wildly

00:53:29.760 close that uh gaspy incomprehensible quebec named uh constituency is that one on the atlantic time

00:53:37.520 zones because of where it's it or it is that that is on the atlantic time zone and it actually um

00:53:43.840 borders the new brunswick border and then it kind of goes around through the through the atlantic

00:53:48.400 and and that area sits in the time zone which is why the results come in a little early okay i was

00:53:54.080 just going to note um that one has got uh dual incumbency so it's uh was must have been a new

00:54:02.000 writing that was comprised of a block and a liberal writing so you've got uh both of those

00:54:07.120 candidates listed as incumbents with the block ahead now nigel you look like you you you you're 0.96

00:54:16.640 pondering something well i'm pondering dual incumbency i think we need to explain what that

00:54:21.440 is for the uh for the viewers do you want to explain that john well i just invented the term

00:54:28.960 no because i looked on there well i was looking at the previous map here and it seemed to me

00:54:36.800 that it was uh previously liberal at least on the tip of the gas bay and then on the

00:54:41.520 interior it was uh block so but when you switch over and then on the list here it says

00:54:49.920 you've got uh two incumbents uh so did the guy cross the floor or something you know wouldn't

00:54:55.760 this just be boundary redistribution oh that's possible that must be one of the new five ridings

00:55:01.680 dual okay there's the worst rendition of the starship enterprise

00:55:07.920 who's doing the starship enterprise oh you guys uh the camera cannot catch erica's doodle pad

00:55:13.680 it's a family show uh

00:55:18.160 um back to to incumbent for our listeners every 10 years election canada and they'll be doing it

00:55:24.480 in alberta for the next election does boundary redistributions based on population are you on

00:55:29.200 the boundary commission no oh i thought you okay i missed something i said alberta will okay yeah

00:55:35.120 we got three seats this time yeah so we got three um a lot of changes over but yes this is one of

00:55:41.920 those new boundaries that's why you will have two incumbents no one crossed the floor dual

00:55:45.680 incumbents uh it turned out actually sean made sense well thank you yeah could you do you want

00:55:51.600 to say the name of that constituency again no especially with the laryngitis so erica

00:55:59.200 if we have three new writings in alberta is that an advantage for the conservatives uh

00:56:05.840 privilege uh federally yes uh so one that i live in like edmonton center uh had some rejigging uh

00:56:13.920 there was i would say from that writing a little bit more uh advantage there's the new edmonton

00:56:19.440 northwest riding and then it kind of it impacted very very large rural ridings which would be very

00:56:28.240 hard to either campaign or or be the mp for um and so yes in theory it did kind of wayfair even

00:56:36.400 though the liberal government so what about a new one in calgary calgary mcnighters in the northeast

00:56:41.680 Yeah, so it kind of split up some of where George Chahal was, Skyview, which also, or that's where he was. So it does, but I would still say the challenge for the conservatives is that they are heavier weighted in or perform better in rural settings where these are because of the concentration of population and it's about 110,000 people per riding that a lot of it would be concentrated.

00:57:09.440 Like I said, the rejigging of Edmonton and then kind of a pocket of Calgary that you saw.

00:57:15.460 Well, that's it. It's not just a Calgary writing. It's a no better term for it. It's an ethnic writing.

00:57:21.240 It's a high, high immigrant concentration.

00:57:24.240 A lot of newcomers.

00:57:25.280 Yeah, which skews more often than not, but not always liberal or towards leftist parties like the NDP does well in northeast Calgary.

00:57:33.220 The liberal, the liberals hold one seat in Calgary. It's in the northeast.

00:57:37.120 um they hold i think is it two seats at edmonton uh two ndp and then one uh liberal or one liberal

00:57:43.800 right now yeah and so they'll they'll tend to do uh better in areas uh that are have a high

00:57:48.960 concentration of immigration one of the new alberta seats is in one of those areas so high

00:57:55.520 migrant population point liberal uh but it's alberta point conservative so i mean those those

00:58:01.620 writings could go any either way mp michael cooper was involved and i'll say his historical

00:58:06.880 knowledge of boundaries uh came into play very helpful for the conservatives the northeast too

00:58:13.600 and those writings are hard to pull because it's based more on who connects with their community

00:58:18.080 a heck of a lot more than a party line so i mean that same writing could very well flip

00:58:26.000 derek if i can add to this conversation which i think is interesting about demographics and what

00:58:30.720 we're going to see tonight about demographics we keep hearing about the blue collar boat which has

00:58:36.160 never been um a strong conservative uh vote getter and and erica i'm sure knows this too it used to

00:58:43.120 be when i used to go canvassing door-to-door you saw a driveway you could pretty well count on a

00:58:47.520 voting conservative and there's a lot of areas in edmonton and other wealthier cities that you

00:58:53.120 know i think of uh rosedale and toronto i mean that used to be a rock solid conservative riding

00:58:58.640 and over time wealthier canadians have voted more and more liberal younger hard-working canadians

00:59:04.720 have become more and more conservative i think one of the questions tonight is how far is that

00:59:09.920 demographic going to change we saw in the united states with donald trump his demographic was

00:59:15.840 largely and he won that election largely on the blue collar working vote and is that now going to

00:59:22.000 impact on the canadian election the exact same way i think that's one of the things we're going

00:59:26.080 to watch and then if we look at some of these ridings even some of these maritime ones

00:59:30.320 if we go back to central nova like that's a riding which has the community of stellerton

00:59:34.880 stellerton is a former um steel mining it also has made um heavy uh gear in it and so there's

00:59:42.240 a lot of working people in that riding and so the cons the fact that conservatives are seemingly

00:59:48.240 doing better may play to that change in demographics and that change in demographics

00:59:53.840 when we look at these riding boundaries may also affect which ridings were competitive in

00:59:58.800 and which ones were not i think that's going to be one of the interesting stories as we go through

01:00:02.320 tonight is how that impacts on on individual writings so let's let's talk about where we're

01:00:09.600 at right now um so newfoundland uh labrador i mean that's always been solid solid liberal it's an

01:00:16.880 extremely low population constituency um but there's some adjuster rules in these things like

01:00:23.520 Like, Labrador is kind of a self-contained unit, and it gets to be a riding no matter what its population is.

01:00:28.820 Same with, like, you know, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Yukon, et cetera.

01:00:33.260 So sometimes there is a case to be made for it.

01:00:35.540 I think Labrador probably is one, even though it goes liberal.

01:00:38.440 The conservatives are doing really strong in Newfoundland.

01:00:41.660 So pick up conservatives smashed the liberal incumbent.

01:00:46.720 uh carol antsy uh the conservative has been declared elected with 53.4 percent of the vote

01:00:53.820 liberals way down at 39 um that's a pickup for the conservatives uh incumbent clifford small

01:01:02.120 from central newfoundland declared elected conservatives leading uh narrowly uh but uh

01:01:09.980 this would be a pickup jonathan rowe picking up the liberal seat from anthony germain that one is

01:01:15.180 not yet there. The Liberals have declared elected in Cape Spear and Avalon, leading in St. John East.

01:01:23.980 If the Conservatives would have the seats in Newfoundland, Kevin, I think that's a good sign.

01:01:29.740 Well, that Long Range Mountain seat is a great sign. The Liberal candidate in that riding was

01:01:34.780 a 32-year newspaper journalist. Sorry, which riding is this? In Long Range Mountain. And so

01:01:42.140 a lot of people kind of expected him to have the kind of the name recognition to allow him to win

01:01:47.820 that seat even in a tough election let alone a good one um now this is a significant change even

01:01:53.900 in the old confederation debates derrick like back in the day it was the crosby's and the pro

01:02:00.060 canada movement from saint john and then it was the separatists and the anti-comfederates in the

01:02:05.500 world and and that always voted liberal that's where joey smallwood was from he's from gander

01:02:10.780 which is just down the road from Long Range Mountains in Clifford Smalls area.

01:02:16.380 And then you always expected the city to vote conservative.

01:02:20.780 And that's, as you can see, has shifted significantly,

01:02:24.420 which goes again to talk about that demographic changes that we're seeing in these ridings.

01:02:33.300 Kevin, can I just interject here and ask you this?

01:02:37.080 the conservatives are very strong when it comes to housing, immigration, all of those issues that

01:02:44.840 are perceived to be holding the younger voters back, and actually part of what you're talking

01:02:50.040 about there. Now, I never pictured Newfoundland as being a place where you can't find a home.

01:02:57.080 so what is driving that conservative we won't call it a you know we won't call it a boom but

01:03:07.080 they're doing better than everybody expected and it's not the issues that would make the

01:03:12.360 conservatives popular in toronto what's going on that that's a great question and i think i think

01:03:18.200 one of the things that's happening across the country is rural canadians are there many of

01:03:22.920 of the issues that are the same for people in newfoundland are exactly the same as the ones

01:03:27.960 that are in rural alberta um so it's affordability it's about finding a job it's about those those

01:03:34.560 nuts and bolts issues um that affect rural canadians all across the country and i think

01:03:39.540 one of the things we're going to see here is that the old way of thinking i think it used to be that

01:03:44.220 everyone would think employment insurance when it comes to comes to uh atlantic canada now

01:03:50.040 employment insurance isn't really an issue because the way it's been shifted and changed over the

01:03:56.060 years um it has it's lost its political bite um but a lot of in a lot of these seats the issues

01:04:03.920 are exactly the same no matter what part of the country you come from like nigel i don't think 1.00

01:04:09.100 like for someone like yourself who's been all over the country and knows the country really

01:04:13.280 really well if we were to go to place like um stephenville newfoundland which is in that long

01:04:19.480 Range Mountain riding, it's not going to look and act or our political discussions are not going to

01:04:24.200 be substantially different than, say, if we're outside of rural Red Deer. And that's just the

01:04:29.740 way the country, I think, is changing. But I also think it's an opportunity for conservatives,

01:04:34.700 because in some of these seats where they didn't really compete because of traditional voting

01:04:38.700 patterns, those voting patterns are starting to move with the rest of the country. We just might

01:04:43.540 be a little bit blind. All right. Well, I want to bring in a second Eastern bastard here. 1.00

01:04:48.640 We've got our replacement Frenchman, Raynaud Broussard. 0.97

01:04:53.620 I know Raynaud.

01:04:54.580 He also is a veteran of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

01:04:57.460 We're having a reunion here.

01:05:01.580 Michel Kelly Gagnon switched on us.

01:05:03.940 Then we got Daniel Duport.

01:05:08.300 But Nigel promised me a Frenchman, and we got one. 0.92

01:05:11.940 Raynaud, thank you for joining us.

01:05:13.520 Bonsoir.

01:05:14.440 Well, it's my pleasure to be here.

01:05:15.780 uh honestly it's good to see you good to see kevin good to see uh you know everybody on the

01:05:20.900 team and i'm i'm glad to be the token french manager tonight thank you uh so we've only got

01:05:26.900 uh thank you uh we've only got just water just water this is not vodka yet yet we'll see how

01:05:34.980 the results go um we've got right now uh i'm getting messages from james finkbunner old

01:05:42.980 staffer of ours asking why did dave just really hand you water why aren't you drinking beer are

01:05:48.340 you guys okay uh james we uh levels of alcoholism have significantly decreased since you stopped

01:05:55.460 working here uh we're we're on the wagon at the standard now uh it'll probably make for a lesser

01:06:01.380 entertaining show so if our numbers start to go down i will start drinking uh take one for the team

01:06:07.060 yeah uh okay uh reno we've only got one quebec constituency reporting so far not very much uh

01:06:13.780 we got 11 polls reporting on it uh that's oh i want you to say hold on i'm gonna bring this

01:06:19.300 writing up and you're gonna say the name of this constituency um gasp i'm happy to help it's

01:06:29.140 I can't say three times in a row without messing up.

01:06:38.420 Okay. Well, that's really all we got to work on. 11 polls reporting. That starts to get

01:06:44.340 somewhat of a decent sampling here. We've got Alexis Deschamps of the Bloc leading at 47.3.

01:06:53.460 uh this is the double incumbency uh constituency uh that uh sean here was talking about because i

01:07:01.160 guess the redistribution you've got incumbents fighting each other those are always interesting

01:07:04.160 battles uh diane uh diane diane diane yeah okay okay okay uh but these ones are not surprising

01:07:16.920 at all if you look at the writing so so the reason why you've got two incumbents is because the

01:07:22.060 I've got a French word, the redicoupage

01:07:26.020 but the electoral card has changed a little bit

01:07:30.120 and essentially part of the writing

01:07:32.980 that was very, very pro-sovereignty, pro-Kobac independence

01:07:38.200 got put into Le Boutier's writing

01:07:41.960 so this is really like, it's not surprising that the bloc

01:07:45.980 would fall ahead in this one

01:07:48.000 and that the liberals and conservatives

01:07:51.460 will be a little bit further behind.

01:07:53.080 But again, you know, it's kind of early on in the night.

01:07:55.980 I think what will be interesting to see

01:07:58.380 is once we start getting the results

01:08:00.100 from around Quebec City, Saguenay,

01:08:03.660 but also especially Trois-Guyvières.

01:08:05.780 The conservatives have had a candidate there

01:08:07.660 who's the former mayor of Trois-Guyvières.

01:08:10.080 He's been running in that writing for three times.

01:08:12.960 Every single time he's running there

01:08:14.400 has been really, really close.

01:08:16.400 He's been polling very, very well.

01:08:18.660 Now, recently, what we see is really a three-way tie

01:08:21.460 where both the Liberals and Conservatives

01:08:23.400 and the Bloc as well are polling at roughly 30%.

01:08:26.900 So this is going to be a really fun one to follow at tonight.

01:08:29.900 If you can, you know, once the results start coming in from Quebec,

01:08:33.360 the writing of Squawk Viet will be one of the most closely watched, I think.

01:08:38.840 The Bloc has not fared well in this election,

01:08:42.400 not nearly as badly as the NDP,

01:08:45.560 But how worried should the bloc be tonight?

01:08:49.200 You know, definitely not as worried as the NDP.

01:08:51.780 You know, the NDP is not sure whether or not they're still going to have official party status.

01:08:55.100 I think the bloc is not looking in a situation where we wouldn't have official party status, which is having 12 elected officials.

01:09:04.060 But for the bloc, I think this is going to be a, this is rather hard election, because a lot of the more nationalist sentiment has become a more Canadian nationalist sentiment recently, simply because of the tariff threats coming from down south.

01:09:20.820 So there's a lot of people that say, you know, maybe we don't want to be part of Canada, but we especially don't want to be a part of the US.

01:09:27.120 So I think that's one of the things that has hurt the block quite significantly.

01:09:35.060 Again, it's not nearly as bad as it is for the NDP, but the block is probably not having a good night tonight.

01:09:42.360 You know, they're most likely looking at the drop.

01:09:44.680 The last I saw from some polling aggregators in terms of how much they thought the bloc was going to get was 24 seats.

01:09:58.240 If you compare it to last time around, they had 30, well, to when Parliament was dissolved, they had 33 seats.

01:10:04.500 So it's still a significant drop for the bloc.

01:10:08.780 But it is nowhere near the apocalypse that must be going on in the NDP of our room right now.

01:10:13.860 Sean, whenever you, if you've got an update to make, you just flag me and we'll bring you in.

01:10:18.860 Have you got anything?

01:10:19.860 I don't have an update, but I've got kind of a point to make.

01:10:23.860 So this is, let's see, let me figure out how to get out of my own.

01:10:29.860 Why is there a riding in Alberta reporting?

01:10:31.860 No, you know what? This is 70% of the population in Canada lives here, here, and here.

01:10:37.860 Oh, okay, okay.

01:10:38.860 What I'm about to say is that this is where it's going to start to get real here within the next probably 15 minutes or so.

01:10:47.220 What running is that? That's about this lower St. Lawrence Valley down into Niagara.

01:10:54.440 Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. Well, whenever you've got an update, you just flag me.

01:10:58.920 Okay. We'll do it.

01:11:00.600 Kevin, let's look back at the Atlantic provinces, how they're coming in.

01:11:08.860 uh newfoundland is looking uh i mean the terra nova the peninsulas uh is still very close

01:11:19.180 still holds to come in that could still go either way but uh three three seats in newfoundland is

01:11:24.620 that about as conservative as newfoundland can get in a federal election i think that is about

01:11:29.900 as conservative as you can get um and if you look at the particular that terra nova seat that was

01:11:35.660 also uh like long range mountain previously held by the conservative by the liberals excuse me for

01:11:40.620 a number of years um so again these are good signs for the conservatives that they're picking up these

01:11:45.900 seats um that were traditional liberal seats i want to pick up on a point though derek that

01:11:50.300 were now mentioned about the ndp because we can take a little look at at some of that um in this

01:11:56.060 and if we look at riding oh sorry sorry one one second i want to bring uh dave nailer in here

01:12:01.980 we've got some interesting news out of uh vancouver and jake beat singh's headquarters

01:12:07.100 let's uh let's put dave you're off the bench what do you got

01:12:13.660 dave dave your sound is not on oops sorry dave's a boomer yes 0.90

01:12:22.060 the ndp have been uh real dicks this entire election uh they uh haven't responded to any

01:12:28.060 of our emails haven't told us when any of their events are well we find out where jagmeet singh's 0.97

01:12:34.060 uh so-called victory celebration will be in burnaby tonight and we get kicked out uh so we

01:12:40.380 asked why they haven't been uh giving us any information and uh they replied just because

01:12:45.500 you're the western standard so uh remember ndp those who laugh those who laughed last

01:12:51.900 laugh the loudest yeah uh okay uh well two things dave one you still got to fix that microphone

01:12:59.660 uh two make sure uh jared doesn't leave he should just park outside of jake meets uh headquarters

01:13:05.180 there um give us the best he can from there that is some wild stuff though uh in production we're

01:13:12.700 set up to bring in the uh speeches from the leaders when they take the stage later tonight right

01:13:16.300 let's put a keffiyeh on 1.00

01:13:20.860 bring him right in

01:13:22.040 tell Jared to put a keffiyeh on 0.98

01:13:25.900 and start jumping up and down

01:13:28.180 around cripples 1.00

01:13:30.500 I will give him that advice

01:13:35.120 tell him to do that

01:13:37.120 he'll get it no problem

01:13:38.220 sounds good

01:13:40.120 sorry to interrupt you there Kevin

01:13:44.480 Well, that's a really good segue, Derek.

01:13:47.200 It's probably important we probably spend a little bit of time on the NDP because there's some numbers in here, I think, also tell a really compelling story.

01:13:54.720 So if you look at the riding of Halifax, Halifax is, if you look at Atlantic Canada, it is traditionally the hotbed of support for the NDP.

01:14:03.760 They're running Lisa Roberts.

01:14:05.320 She's a provincial MLA, a supposed star candidate for the party in this election.

01:14:12.100 They've held this riding.

01:14:14.480 And they traditionally do very, very well here.

01:14:17.920 They're running third in Halifax tonight in these early results.

01:14:22.300 In Halifax West, another riding that they've traditionally competed well in.

01:14:28.340 They're scoring about 7% of the vote in that seat.

01:14:33.460 SACFIL, which was long held by an NDP MP, Peter Stouffer, very popular in Nova Scotia.

01:14:41.140 Tonight, the party's getting just 5% of the vote.

01:14:44.480 so these numbers if you're an ndp supporter tonight you would kind of look at those ridings

01:14:50.560 um in these early results to see how you're doing and as you can tell they're not doing very good

01:14:56.640 in fact they're doing abysmal they used to hold derbeth coal harbor as well right was that uh

01:15:01.680 that was the lady with the glasses uh that's right that's exactly right and and this writing was also

01:15:06.720 held um uh there was mayor from halifax who held this riding he lost the riding to robert chisholm

01:15:15.440 a former provincial new democrat who then turned it back over to the liberals but this is again

01:15:21.520 this is prime ndp territory not just in the atlantic canada but across the country because

01:15:28.320 this was the area that alexa mcdonough used to hold when she was ndp leader back in the 90s so

01:15:34.080 they've always done very very well here and if you look at those early results they're not just

01:15:38.960 doing poor derek uh they're not even competitive um you know they're ranging somewhere between 10

01:15:44.480 and 5 percent uh in those ridings and if if for all of you know for all if we were to go look at

01:15:50.320 those seats i think we would assume that they're strong um ndp ridings and they're just not doing

01:15:56.080 very well um a second here so presumably kevin they're going to lean more to the liberals than

01:16:05.120 to the conservatives if they're starting from an ndp orientation well yes in fact the writing

01:16:11.600 of halifax west which was close in the last election uh in this election the ndp vote has

01:16:17.920 almost entirely gone to the liberals early on um so the lib the liberals scoring about 62 61 of the

01:16:25.040 vote the ndp are scoring just seven percent of the vote and the question is is as we get into

01:16:30.240 ontario um other urban seats like this one and particularly in the 905 what is that decline in

01:16:37.600 ndp support going to do in ridings that conservatives would traditionally need to win

01:16:42.560 in seats like the mississaugas and the bramptons and things like that that as um as you were

01:16:47.840 showing in the previous graph of where the the election is really won and lost uh in those seats

01:16:55.280 that's where the ndp has always played a major role it doesn't appear like they're going to

01:17:00.560 tonight and if and knowing that how are those results going to look an hour or two from now

01:17:05.920 okay uh i want to bring in uh sean here uh he has an update so uh yes um gasp easy

01:17:16.620 however you say it why don't we just call it g-i-m-l anyway so it's flipped over to liberal

01:17:25.340 here uh but going back to what we were talking about the ndp 1.5 percent i'm not even sure who

01:17:32.540 rp is like is that like the rhino party it's polling they're competitive um wow uh orange 0.91

01:17:42.940 is the new green the or the ndp i mean based on the atlantic results so far is essentially where

01:17:49.420 the the greens are when they're having a good election four to seven percent is a good green

01:17:55.580 election that's where the ndp is at right now um and and you know you remember if you remember back

01:18:02.780 in 2011 when there was the orange wave in quebec uh look the ndp was bowling nowhere near what it

01:18:09.020 is right now uh it back in 2011 the ndp got 103 seats they got uh seats in places like uh bertie

01:18:17.340 vale with true flan brosso um in quebec that party has just has gone through a complete meltdown

01:18:24.540 Even with the last election, you know, last election, they had 10% in province. They only had one writing. This year, again, they're only looking at one writing. And it's not a writing where they're strong because they're the NDP. It's writing where they're strong because their local candidate is strong in that writing.

01:18:40.840 If that local candidate switched conservatives tomorrow, you know, very unlikely it would happen, but that writing would switch conservatives right away.

01:18:48.860 So, you know, the NDP has been collapsing in the rest of the country, but the NDP collapse in Quebec was probably the story we have from 2019 and 2021, even 2015.

01:19:01.460 Yeah.

01:19:04.300 Sorry.

01:19:05.540 Raynaud, what time are we going to get results coming out of Quebec?

01:19:09.000 We should be getting them soon, shouldn't we?

01:19:10.600 Oh, in about 20 minutes.

01:19:12.300 Polls are closing at 9.30 here.

01:19:14.040 There was one exception for Gaspis-Laisille

01:19:16.080 that closed a little bit earlier,

01:19:17.880 but the rest should be, well, I'm saying 9.30,

01:19:20.160 but, you know, 7.30 amount of time, I guess.

01:19:22.820 Yeah.

01:19:23.560 Yeah.

01:19:24.200 And just the results aren't going to be that slow

01:19:26.720 coming out in the West

01:19:27.500 because the polls will close earlier out here.

01:19:30.600 So we have less voting time,

01:19:32.360 but most people have voted by 8.30, you know.

01:19:34.840 What time did we close here?

01:19:35.720 I thought it was 7.30.

01:19:36.960 Did we close by 7.30?

01:19:37.800 7.30 or, yeah.

01:19:38.900 You know, most people should have voted. Well, I think it's because when we look at the 715, I was running a local campaign and it was quite depressing to know that you already knew how the election was going. And then you just sat there for an extra two hours. So I do think that they put a lot of the closing times a little shorter. And from everyone I hear, I don't know who you guys folks have talked to today, but polling stations are quite quiet. And I don't know if that's the case for others, but advanced polls were crazy.

01:20:07.480 Yeah, like quite absurdly busy.

01:20:10.640 Now it might have been the Easter weekend, but that might also, you know, meaning that there's slower, like the quicker count and less people standing there past 730.

01:20:23.580 Yeah, I think the polls were something like 1.5 million in the early polls in the last election.

01:20:32.300 This time it's been 7 million.

01:20:34.280 And so that tells you that an awful lot of people made the decision to go early.

01:20:40.220 But the 1.5 was in itself a big jump on the election before that.

01:20:44.680 So it's like advanced polling has come into fashion in a big way.

01:20:48.040 Have you ever voted on Election Day? I never have.

01:20:50.500 I have never voted on Election Day.

01:20:52.480 You know you're a political security when you've never voted on Election Day.

01:20:54.860 I also go to the returning office, or usually when you have to write the name in.

01:20:58.880 So, yeah.

01:21:00.240 See, like in 2019, it was a million people turned out for the advanced polls.

01:21:04.560 In 2015, it was only 600,000.

01:21:07.060 Now it's seven and a half million.

01:21:08.900 So it's an incredible number.

01:21:13.960 How campaigns are going to change, too.

01:21:15.720 I mean, as this moves into a larger voting period, you've got to be intense in that first three weeks now.

01:21:20.340 You don't, you're not waiting for everybody to vote on that last day.

01:21:23.460 Like, you've got to have your.

01:21:25.200 I hope from this we also learn if that's the case.

01:21:27.680 like parties need to release those platforms before that was a conservative mistake they

01:21:34.180 released their platform a week after seven and a half million people voted i mean that's

01:21:38.240 a bad tactical yeah and i mean even the debates like do they really need to happen that close to

01:21:43.520 the end of this is what well we should have more debates but at least have one that's not like a

01:21:47.600 two days away from or the day before advanced voting starts because advanced voting uh is both

01:21:53.440 more available now and it's become a part of people's civic habits where it's it's now not a

01:21:58.020 oh i'm only going to vote on advanced polls if i'm away on vacation or something now now it's

01:22:02.920 very common when it was what six to seven percent was the undecided by the debate which

01:22:09.420 ideally was more strategic for the conservatives and also if they'd released their platform earlier

01:22:14.740 because there has been some pretty significant policies that the conservative party has released

01:22:20.500 but to who? Yeah, well, actually to you and to us, but I wonder how many people actually say,

01:22:28.700 ah, there it is. That's what I've been looking for. There is the liberal platform. There is

01:22:32.640 the conservative platform, and now I'm going to go through them, and I'm going to make a careful

01:22:37.080 decision. Do you think that happens? No. No. But your strategy on the back last few days,

01:22:46.380 and we know like the significance of the GOTV that you're getting into it's now like your GOTV

01:22:53.260 needs to be heavier and more strategic before advanced polls then what's GOTV get out that boat 0.91

01:22:58.880 oh I've heard Jenny Byrne say that once you know what do not compare me to Jenny Byrne

01:23:04.700 let's uh you know what let's uh compare some of the results I'm the only woman here 0.51

01:23:10.300 let's compare some of the results as we have them uh from 338 uh canada uh 338 canada.com

01:23:18.940 uh that's uh i think uh this has got to be 343 here pretty quick yeah yeah they have to get it

01:23:25.500 he he plays a real gamble and uh what domain names uh he gets um there there are pretty good

01:23:31.980 uh polling aggregator and predictor um there goes my glasses uh i generally have a lot of faith in

01:23:39.900 it but it can be wrong but so far let's you know let's look uh avalon he called liberal is liberal

01:23:47.260 uh cape spear central newfoundland he listed as a toss-up uh leaning liberal uh that has gone

01:23:57.180 conservative uh uh terranova the peninsula of peninsulas he listed as likely liberal uh it is

01:24:05.500 at this moment leaning conservative still narrow it could go liberal but it's 49

01:24:11.100 conservative 36.8 liberal uh he listed that as uh really list that one as as likely liberal

01:24:21.180 so it's it's pretty rare when he says likely or strongly you can generally take that to the bank

01:24:26.940 the toss-ups obviously more likely to go either way but i mean like the conservatives are winning

01:24:33.420 some things that were called in the polling aggregators as likely liberal. That's rare.

01:24:37.900 Yeah I was gonna ask Kevin actually on that if that speaks to what you were talking about before

01:24:42.380 with the blue-collared vote or maybe some of those demographics that are leaving their traditional

01:24:48.780 vote and leaning more conservative now that that's maybe the answer. We said before you joined that

01:24:55.180 you know none of us answer the phone to answer a poll so that might be part of why our conservative

01:25:00.460 votes not getting weighed properly but do you want to comment on that kevin about what you're seeing

01:25:04.620 in the maritimes and what could be attributing to the lack of accuracy yeah i think there's two

01:25:10.540 things the first is kind of the point that nigel made which is rural canada is just more conservative

01:25:16.860 that is just a fact and i think the differences between the regions as time is going on

01:25:23.100 is becoming less and less and less um so i think that's the first one and then erica i think you

01:25:28.140 hit the nail right on the head i think these demographic changes are significant and i think

01:25:32.780 as we kind of look through the the voting patterns and and how these elections turn out which is then

01:25:39.180 what are our parties going to be all about because traditionally conservatives were always the big

01:25:44.860 business rich people party the conservative party today is likely to be very very different after

01:25:51.180 this election primarily because the supporters who will support it will be significantly different

01:25:56.940 and as we kind of look through leadership and who's going to lead and the types of things we're going

01:26:01.580 to talk about all of this is going to have a big impact and i think this is just playing out now

01:26:07.740 in the early results the future will be different from the one that is well actually i think the

01:26:18.140 conservative party of the future is the one that we're actually seeing now bringing its vote out

01:26:23.660 to the table and my impression broadly is that the modern conservative is a young working man

01:26:33.020 who is concerned about his home his family his security on the street all of those things that

01:26:41.020 used to be the concern of the old conservatives but now the older conservatives and i'd love you

01:26:47.420 to tell me whether it's the same back east, but they seem to be so anxious and fearful about the

01:26:55.100 future that they're looking for a safe place. And somehow or other they see the liberals as safe,

01:27:01.820 they see Mr. Carney as safe and reassuring, whereas the young guys kind of like that

01:27:07.100 zip that Pierre Polyev brings to the argument. You know, he's kind of sassy and puts people in

01:27:13.420 in their place young guys like that a lot what do you say i agree in fact i'm glad reno's here

01:27:19.480 because i know he's done a lot of research and writing on this very topic um and so i'll i'll

01:27:24.520 actually defer to him on this um but i think as we kind of go through the night we're going to hear

01:27:30.660 speeches tonight from the various leaders um somebody's going to win somebody's going to lose

01:27:34.780 i think two things that if we're into a four-year liberal majority government that is going to change

01:27:42.160 our discussion about liberal or excuse me about conservative leaders and ideas after this um

01:27:50.800 and the second thing it's going to do is if we're going to have just a two-party system

01:27:55.380 the choices are going to be far more stark which i think given you know your conversation with erica

01:28:01.800 is really really important because i think now suddenly we're going to be able to have

01:28:06.580 two very distinct choices very similar to south of the border which i think for a lot of

01:28:12.080 will be a lot easier to to to what you're saying you were saying kevin you know how they used to

01:28:20.160 say uh there's this old saying like if you're not a liberal by the time you're 20 you have no heart

01:28:25.760 but if you're not conservative by the time you're 40 you have no brains uh you know looking at the

01:28:30.480 polling numbers it sort of feels like that has inverted and i think a lot a large part of this

01:28:36.000 is you know when when conservatives talk about this last liberal decade uh not everybody has

01:28:41.440 experienced it in the same way as, I believe, as Trevor Toon that wrote this not so long ago.

01:28:48.880 But essentially, if you're a young person starting out in your career, you're the one that sees the

01:28:55.360 lack of wage growth, the lack of opportunity, the home ownership that becomes even more

01:29:00.400 unattainable every single day. But if you're somebody that's later in your career, you've

01:29:06.560 already got your assets, you've already saved up and you're just a couple of years away from

01:29:11.280 retirements well the last couple of years for the for you know people that have assets they've been

01:29:16.320 pretty good uh the stock market has been going has been going well except the last few months

01:29:20.800 uh the when you look at the price of housing uh you know if you own a home the more the price of

01:29:26.400 housing goes up the more your savings go up uh it's if you look at it after uh inflation the

01:29:32.880 price of a home you have the price of the average home in canada increased by 43 every single day

01:29:38.000 after inflation uh for the last decade so for people that own these homes for people that are

01:29:42.800 older voters uh you they just don't have the same uh lived experience to borrow a term from uh from

01:29:50.480 the left uh than uh the younger folks and i think that's why the concerted message has resonated

01:29:56.720 so well with the 18 to 34 we did 34 uh to 55 uh with people that are you know either starting

01:30:03.680 in their career or right in the middle of it is because these are the folks that just don't see

01:30:08.200 this chance to advance or this opportunity that other generations used to have in Canada and that

01:30:14.600 Canada used to be known for. So Kevin, I want to, I got a question for you, kind of going back to

01:30:20.440 the 338 here. It's, it has, so Terranova, the Peninsulas was, and Newfoundland was listed as

01:30:30.660 a pretty solid liberal writing.

01:30:33.040 It is now leaning

01:30:33.920 conservative. It's not

01:30:38.540 done yet, but that was listed as solid.

01:30:41.640 Central Nova was

01:30:42.680 listed as likely liberal.

01:30:45.540 Central Nova

01:30:46.100 with incumbent Sean Frazier,

01:30:48.800 a guy, gun owners, could be very

01:30:50.620 familiar with.

01:30:53.200 Okay.

01:30:55.880 The conservatives

01:30:56.960 are leading

01:30:57.500 in that constituency. Again,

01:31:00.660 uh a little less than 100 polls to close and then uh what was the next one uh cumberland

01:31:06.900 gloucestershire was listed as leaning liberal uh conservatives have a healthy but not insurmountable

01:31:14.580 lead in that constituency so the conservatives have so far won every toss-up riding in atlantic

01:31:21.460 uh and are leading although haven't yet been elected but leading in two solid uh liberal

01:31:28.660 writings uh what's this telling you well i i think i think this is good fortunes for pierre

01:31:34.580 poliver early on you'll remember in 2015 when we sat around and watched the results coming in

01:31:40.260 everyone looked to the maritimes first was the first results that come in and was stephen harper

01:31:44.420 going to be able to keep to a minority was he not and 32 liberals were returned on that night

01:31:50.900 and it just started the stream of what was going to happen afterwards what we're seeing here is

01:31:56.020 largely the status quo let's be honest and so uh we're not going to see the decline but we're also

01:32:02.420 not seeing derrick the conservative pickups like look at the riding of frederickton for example

01:32:07.140 in new brunswick that is a riding that bounces between the various parties it's kind of a

01:32:11.860 bellwether brian mcdonald the conservative candidate is a former provincial member of

01:32:17.620 the legislature and he's running against david miles who's a jazz musician famous in the region

01:32:23.060 actually and uh and so that's one that if the conservatives are going to have a really good

01:32:28.980 night that you would start to look at them winning saint john as well blue collar town people that

01:32:34.040 work in moosehead brewery or the or the mill again that one's going liberal so it's essentially the

01:32:41.160 status quo i would warn on central nova if you look at the kind of the area the near the white 1.00

01:32:47.540 near the ocean that's along the number old number seven highway that area is like this twisty turny

01:32:53.900 old road with houses on it that traditionally is more conservative that vote and then if you go

01:33:02.880 into the towns again that tends to be a little bit more liberal so it really depends on where

01:33:08.980 the vote is coming from in that riding and you're not going to know that for a little bit so this

01:33:14.180 one tends to go up and down my experience on election nights because i get excited about

01:33:19.440 results like this and then uh kind of a flip flip a different way that other riding cumberland

01:33:25.700 colchester the conservatives are going to win that um that's bill casey's old riding who's a

01:33:30.420 conservative then he flipped to the liberals um and uh steven ellis won it in the last election

01:33:37.680 this is like this is as close to what rural alberta would look like that being said again

01:33:44.000 going back to the ndp that is also a riding that has been that has traditionally in more recent

01:33:51.360 history some good ndp vote and when you take that away it changes the dynamic a little bit which

01:33:57.200 makes it a little closer than it should but that central nova one i wouldn't is going to be a long

01:34:02.560 night watching that result because a lot of those ballot boxes along the number seven highway are

01:34:07.480 to take a long time to get to get them counted uh kind of a funny story i was doing poll uh

01:34:14.440 poll counting and leaders tour on the number seven highway and there's no cell phone coverage

01:34:18.760 i thought we were lost to the earth uh one election night so there's a lot of people you

01:34:22.760 can't even call in to get those results in all right uh update from uh sean

01:34:28.520 um so interesting note here um cbc has assigned this writing of montcalm i can actually say that

01:34:40.580 one because it's north of montreal um as bq even though there's zero two yeah zero votes

01:34:47.420 they haven't called it they're saying the blocks are leading yeah they said yeah they're leading

01:34:52.120 in it they haven't said they haven't called it as a life okay okay sorry sorry that is not

01:35:00.120 that is not the writing of mongalm that is that it's the one it's the one where uh they've got

01:35:05.960 the block leading's writing of terbonne mongalm is just a little bit further north uh oh oh yeah

01:35:12.520 no i'm looking here that's called terrible was that terrible it's it's close enough you know

01:35:23.240 it's uh how do you say it how do you say it terrible okay actually i'm looking here here

01:35:27.880 i'm gonna bring this in uh there actually are some results coming in uh one it is one poll

01:35:34.360 okay so that's maybe that's an advantage oh here we go here we go here we go it's it's one poll

01:35:38.520 but this is the sort of area that the Liberals were looking at consolidating. So if you look

01:35:44.600 at Quebec's electoral map from the previous election, they sort of have the highlight of

01:35:48.360 Montreal and Laval, except a couple of exceptions. But outside the island, that was very much block

01:35:54.040 Quebecois territory. And this is one of those places where they're looking to make some gains.

01:35:59.240 Look, the reason why this is block Quebecois territory, if you look at it provincially,

01:36:03.160 you know, these writings right now, they're being represented by the Coalition Amir Québec,

01:36:06.280 the cac uh before that they were pq forever uh especially the writing of terbonne and now it's

01:36:13.480 it's it's expected that provincially that writing or at least a good part of that writing is going

01:36:18.360 to fly back to the pq so this is a writing that's been very pro-sovereignty for a long time

01:36:24.200 it's bordering montreal uh though it's it's it's off it's just on the north uh side of the island

01:36:29.400 but it is so so it's on the north side but you know much like we talk about uh you know downtown

01:36:35.240 toronto versus the suburbs you still have the same dynamic with montreal where the suburbs uh

01:36:40.360 especially the north shore suburbs are a lot more heavily frank and founder a lot more uh heavily

01:36:45.640 pro-sovereignty typically or at least they they vote for the party quebec without necessarily

01:36:49.960 being pro-sovereignty um if the if the liberals are to make major gains these are the ones they're

01:36:56.760 looking to flip uh because they're essentially profiting from the the drop in the bloc cubico

01:37:02.520 votes so look this is just one poll reporting out of 208 like this is not a definitive result by far

01:37:09.240 uh but if the uh block manages to keep it like this is this is a good uh this this is a bad sign

01:37:17.080 for liberals and i would say as such a good sign for conservatives and here again we've got uh ndp

01:37:23.480 at about five percent um they're pulling with the people's party and the greens geez okay um

01:37:32.440 can i just point out this is random but i'm checking on elections alberta because i wanted

01:37:36.040 to check what time bc polls close um they're apparently having technical difficulties you've

01:37:41.400 You've got one day to do your job.

01:37:45.640 Conspiracy.

01:37:46.760 Yeah.

01:37:47.300 Can you start on this one?

01:37:48.720 Apparently.

01:37:51.440 Okay.

01:37:53.960 I guess the big theme so far is the NDP.

01:37:57.800 They're just gone.

01:38:00.840 And that doesn't bode well in Ontario, though.

01:38:02.960 I mean, if that collapse continues into Ontario, we know just by nature.

01:38:08.140 I mean, you can't assume with votes when they leave one party and go to another.

01:38:10.800 But when it's NDP going somewhere else, chances are really good they're going to go liberal.

01:38:14.620 So, I mean, yeah, things are looking pretty promising off the bat, more than we expected in the Maritimes.

01:38:19.480 But that NDP collapse is something to be concerned about.

01:38:22.900 It appears that we'll see a lot of strategic voting.

01:38:24.960 We're praying that nobody shows up.

01:38:26.780 Oh, we have a really interesting guest in the wings right now.

01:38:31.360 Let's bring in my old friend here.

01:38:35.520 Kent Hare is a former liberal member of the Alberta legislature.

01:38:40.800 back when those used to exist and uh he was a liberal member of parliament for calgary center

01:38:47.060 and a member of uh the trudeau government's cabinet uh from 2015 to 2019 how you doing kent

01:38:54.240 hey i'm doing great how's the team at western standard doing tonight it's getting a little

01:38:59.000 sticky uh they tend to turn off the air conditioning after regular work hours here

01:39:02.960 no matter how hard i beg them but uh well you know you you just gotta go you gotta go grease

01:39:07.980 the the landlord a little more there try and be uh that guy what hey nevertheless i roll by your

01:39:14.560 office all the time maybe i'll go talk to him derek okay i appreciate that you can put in a word

01:39:19.700 uh so kent uh have you been watching the results as they're coming in at audi so far

01:39:24.520 uh i actually just got uh back uh doing some uh last minute campaigning for the calgary uh center

01:39:31.280 team here with Lindsey Lou now. So I haven't been privy to those results, but I heard that the NDP

01:39:39.160 are struggling mightily, which it is not surprising to me and the like. But if you could refresh me

01:39:48.220 on the other stuff, I think I can give some opinions. Yeah, here, well, let's, we'll throw

01:39:53.880 the map in here. So the Conservatives are, they're winning the toss-ups in the Atlantic

01:39:59.700 provinces right now the liberals stand to you know they're still leading with the most seats

01:40:05.300 it's it's a strong liberal region but the conservatives are uh leading and leading are

01:40:10.340 elected in three in newfoundland uh looks like three in nova scotia one two three four in new

01:40:17.700 brunswick uh they're they're holding every one of their incumbents uh they're picking up some of the

01:40:24.180 swings, and even picking up some that were not considered to be swings, but it's certainly far

01:40:29.860 from a blue wave. But the big thing we're seeing is the utter annihilation from the NDP polling.

01:40:36.800 Some ratings as low as 2%. The highest I think I saw them was 7 or 8 in the very highest. Maybe

01:40:44.900 I'm wrong, but the highest I can recall seeing them in any Atlantic constituency so far was

01:40:50.580 like seven or eight percent um why i mean by perception and kind of narrative mark carney

01:40:59.940 is thought to be a less hard left leader than justin trudeau yet he's completely

01:41:06.140 folded the ndp vote in how the hell did he do that well i i think uh for the better part of

01:41:13.540 the decade the the trudeau liberals uh pushed uh jagmeet so far to the left that he was falling

01:41:19.820 off a cliff. And then when Mr. Carney came in with the NDP weakened to the point they were,

01:41:28.120 he was able to pivot to a more centrist or even slightly right of center campaign that I think

01:41:36.380 the country sort of appreciated that approach and saw it as real change, not just window dressing.

01:41:44.540 I believe also that, you know, Mr. Carney, with the issue being national unity and Donald Trump, that's an issue that plays into Mr. Carney's strengths more than it did to Pierre Polyev's.

01:41:58.780 And I think with the NDP rendered nudigatory almost right from the start or right from Mr. Trudeau leaving, I think it gave them a lot of room to the right for them to pivot to.

01:42:12.900 And I think that's why you're seeing them, the NDP fall off the cliff.

01:42:18.900 Okay.

01:42:19.700 Oh, we'll jump up there. 0.99

01:42:20.860 Do we have an update from you, Sean?

01:42:22.320 Yeah, we do.

01:42:23.720 All right.

01:42:26.600 I'm standing in front of it.

01:42:27.760 battle for deloitte minister metal lake something i can pronounce and it's on

01:42:31.720 the alberta border as we know i know it's just an outlier but we got no

01:42:38.320 surprise 85 percent 12 percent liberal 10 percent liberal i'm looking right now

01:42:44.100 well i think that's a lower than what people were even expecting i think they

01:42:47.060 were expecting maybe a higher number but here again ndp one vote that's a

01:42:51.660 Rosemary Falk. Wow. 0.2% for the NDP. Yeah. And we've got, actually here, I'm going to bring

01:43:00.260 the map back here. I'm going to bring in Raynaud. Raynaud, we've got some of the, some Quebec

01:43:07.640 results starting to trickle in. Again, a lot of these are just one poll. We've got LaPays,

01:43:14.180 and hot.

01:43:16.820 Liberals with a big lead.

01:43:17.980 Again, one poll in.

01:43:19.580 Really small poll.

01:43:21.560 Yeah, like, there's like less than

01:43:23.920 30 people who have voted. Can't really read

01:43:25.780 anything into that.

01:43:28.420 Yeah, okay, well,

01:43:29.720 this one's actually got some numbers in.

01:43:32.060 Saint-Marie-Champlain.

01:43:34.740 Liberals with the

01:43:35.900 commanding early lead. Three of 296

01:43:38.020 polls in. Liberals at

01:43:39.440 53.8. Conservatives

01:43:41.320 22.6. Block 20.1.

01:43:44.180 Lac Saint-Jean

01:43:48.040 Block Ahead

01:43:50.180 and

01:43:51.340 well this one's got some more

01:43:53.580 Chicoutimi La Fjord 0.99

01:43:55.400 I don't know if they say Fjord like that in French

01:43:57.980 but what are you taking from this

01:44:00.180 Reno? Forget the ones 1.00

01:44:02.040 that have a single poll reporting

01:44:03.300 Honestly it's still

01:44:05.960 kind of early. The only one with more than a single poll

01:44:08.200 is Saint-Maurice Champlain

01:44:09.180 and that one I could have called for you

01:44:11.580 six weeks ago

01:44:13.680 It's François-Philippe Champagne's writing.

01:44:15.480 It's one of the writings where liberals are very strong.

01:44:17.500 If you're not doing well in Saint-Maurice-Champlain,

01:44:21.400 they're not doing well anywhere else in the country.

01:44:24.020 So this is not exactly a surprising start.

01:44:26.940 I think the interesting race is to follow.

01:44:29.920 So you alluded to Chicous-Limmy-Lafiard. 1.00

01:44:33.880 So that's Richard Martel's writing, conservative.

01:44:36.840 He has been hammering the liberals

01:44:39.280 for the handling of the woodland caribou fowl for a certain time.

01:44:46.640 And so have the Bloc Québécois as well.

01:44:49.000 So I think this one will be quite interesting to follow

01:44:51.640 to see which of those two parties actually ends up on top,

01:44:57.260 especially with the...

01:44:59.640 There's always this perception that Quebec is a very liberal place.

01:45:06.700 I tend to disagree.

01:45:07.520 I tend to say that there are sort of two different conservative parties, but that appeal to two different conservative demographics.

01:45:17.080 And the bloc would appeal more to nationalists, whereas the conservatives would appeal a little bit more to economic and fiscal conservatives.

01:45:24.740 So I think this will be an interesting one to follow, especially because the bloc has been putting a lot of effort into trying to take that writing for a long time.

01:45:33.540 all right uh kent uh yeah turn this thing off here um what is it uh i saw the polls have just

01:45:45.780 closed everywhere from quebec to alberta uh bc is the only place still voting at this time

01:45:51.660 well maybe yukon um uh what do you what do you think how do the liberals gonna do in alberta

01:45:59.100 tonight uh it's never been obviously the strongest place uh you uh you are a bit of a unicorn uh the

01:46:06.080 first liberal elected in calgary uh well in my lifetime um what are you expecting to see tonight

01:46:14.060 for the liberals in alberta you know i i think they've uh they've run some strong candidates

01:46:19.320 you know our good friend eric uh cory hogan uh who's been a the been the uh communication

01:46:26.380 director for

01:46:27.920 two premiers, two very

01:46:30.420 different premiers. Premier

01:46:32.220 Notley and Premier Kenney

01:46:34.300 is running in Calgary

01:46:35.340 Confederation. I think he's got

01:46:38.180 a great opportunity. I think

01:46:40.200 Lindsay Lou now in

01:46:41.480 Calgary Centre has a real opportunity.

01:46:44.620 I think they can win up

01:46:46.140 seven seats here in Alberta.

01:46:48.300 That's where I... Seven.

01:46:51.380 That's your

01:46:52.540 ceiling. What's your

01:46:53.920 floor for the Liberals in Alberta?

01:46:56.380 puts your room i'll go four uh i think they they won't win less than four uh they won't win that

01:47:04.620 less than four no i i think uh uh i think you gotta be optimistic for your own team i get it

01:47:10.540 no i i i i no no it's not it's not even that i i i actually think uh confederation and uh

01:47:18.460 george jahal's writing calorie mcknight are are locked i think you think confederations

01:47:23.980 a lock i think confederations a lock i think confederations a lock i i was uh door knocking

01:47:30.620 there over the course of the campaign the ndp vote has cratered you got to remember when matt

01:47:36.140 grand almost won that riding in uh 2015. he worked like a mofo he worked hard for like two years to

01:47:44.620 do that but but the but the ndp got eight percent eight percent of the vote that election i think

01:47:50.940 that's going right down right down to I think the vote for the NDP in that in

01:47:59.640 the Confederation will be too slim and none and I think slim just left town 0.94

01:48:04.060 Derek so I really think Confederation goes I think Calgary Centre has a chance

01:48:12.300 to go but I think because good Lindsay's a strong candidate lives up in 1.00

01:48:16.860 her riding and done a lot of things at City Hall and community building. So I think that one's

01:48:23.080 on the edge. It could be close, a thousand votes either way. And like I said, I even think Skyview

01:48:30.180 can go in Calgary. If you look at the demographics there, it was a riding that George actually was

01:48:39.460 in and then switched over to mcknight and if you look at so he and edmonton center um this is uh

01:48:47.460 there's six right there and i could probably find one more that's why i'm getting a seven but my uh

01:48:52.740 i'm having a little bit of a brain freeze here i think they win seven tonight kent if i can

01:48:57.540 challenge you because at first you kind of came at it from you know it's because of carney's message

01:49:03.540 and quote, unquote, real change. But do you think that that's actually because people support the

01:49:11.340 liberals? Or do you think it is the disastrous decline of Jagmeet Singh, who might be neck and

01:49:17.580 neck for unpopularity, close to Justin Trudeau? So and maybe how that applies to Alberta as well,

01:49:25.560 that it's actually not an increase in liberal support. It's just a dissatisfaction with the

01:49:32.020 NDP and how you think some of those ridings even Strathcona and Griesbach are gonna play out in

01:49:37.500 Alberta? Well I think Albertans have largely been conditioned at least center center left voters

01:49:45.140 have been conditioned to vote for the party that's best able to beat the conservatives. This has been

01:49:52.560 even a provincial strategy when the provincial liberals did well they galvanized more of that

01:49:59.140 vote. When the provincial NDP did well, they galvanized more of the progressive vote. So I

01:50:05.060 don't think this is anything new, but the NDP federally weakness, I don't think Mr. Singh has

01:50:12.380 resonated in his now almost eight years in politics or really been to stake out some territory

01:50:20.560 because the Liberals under Trudeau were very center-left I sense that Kearney

01:50:27.180 is is change enough okay change enough and simply put the this election may

01:50:47.980 have been a lot closer should have the American president not said making Canada a 51st state

01:50:56.940 or making it part of the United States. I believe that that was the big issue. And let's face it,

01:51:04.780 the media then showcased Mr. Carney's response to Mr. Trump. And it was very difficult for Mr.

01:51:12.260 polyab to break into that to change his messaging from what it had been for the last four years and

01:51:19.220 and frankly it sort of took him off his game and gave uh the liberals some wind in their sails and

01:51:25.540 when it comes to the national unity issue and things of this nature the liberals are

01:51:31.140 are are the warm blanket that canadians rightly or wrongly crawl back into the conservative party

01:51:38.580 yeah oh and uh we're gonna go to uh sean for an update here there's a lot of results starting to

01:51:44.580 to flow in um okay okay we've got a lot of results pouring in but because we've been

01:51:49.700 fixated so much on the ndp they're finally on the board folks they got uh 57 27 votes in kenora

01:52:03.700 can you do that one but i think the interesting point here is that the

01:52:06.900 conservative is the incumbent and he's only got four yeah but that you know like that's one hole

01:52:12.260 in a constituency oh ndp just scored again leduc with taskman all right katherine swampy oh i'm

01:52:19.220 sure they're gonna win there yeah they're also reading uh in the arguably most the liberals are

01:52:28.100 leading the most uh arguably most conservative writing in uh ontario algonquin rent from pembroke

01:52:34.020 that is uh the ottawa valley for those of you who do not know that's where guys like randy hillier

01:52:39.380 are from or where i'm from uh it does not elect uh liberals at least once the party unified again

01:52:46.580 buybacks happen in there as we speak yeah yeah that's cheryl gallant cheryl gallant uh there 0.63

01:52:52.660 were only two uh canadian alliance uh mps elected east of manitoba in 2000 both were from the ottawa

01:53:00.180 valley scott reed and cheryl gallant and they're both still there uh but let's let's let's put up

01:53:06.800 the big national map here okay see now now it's conservative um but it was uh briefly listed as

01:53:12.200 liberal okay so results coming in um my constituency yellowhead that's where i get to

01:53:18.820 yeah any bitty thing right western calgary all the way up to jasper that is one hell of a riding

01:53:26.320 it goes from well south of Calgary

01:53:29.040 to well north of Edmonton

01:53:31.260 big chunk, mostly mountains

01:53:33.440 and cattle

01:53:34.420 mostly moose, a lot of moose voting there

01:53:37.320 they've got both national parks

01:53:38.820 I don't know how this has not been called by the CBC yet

01:53:41.360 like literally as soon as the first one comes in

01:53:43.400 the Conservatives at 80%

01:53:44.920 call it

01:53:46.620 we've got Battleford's Law Administer

01:53:48.540 Meadowlake in Saskatchewan

01:53:50.940 the incumbent there has done the Liberals

01:53:52.760 to Falkoff

01:53:53.900 that's Rosie Falk

01:53:55.780 80 almost 85 percent of the vote uh bow river uh back area area i used to represent uh conservatives

01:54:04.560 are at 87 those numbers are not likely to change much uh this is where it just becomes the battle

01:54:11.380 of conservatives of who can have the higher percentage and two of those what is it davian

01:54:15.880 turex is another one that's uh up there for how high can you get of support yeah so actually

01:54:22.820 Bow River here. That's David Bexley. That's the father of Kian Bexley of Counter Signal and Juno News.

01:54:29.420 Yeah, there's really nothing that interesting in Alberta yet.

01:54:34.960 We're really going to have to get into Calgary and Edmonton with a decent number of polls reporting in some of those either hyper urban constituencies or heavily ethnic constituencies where you could have some battle.

01:54:48.960 But we're seeing lots in Quebec. We're seeing lots in Ontario.

01:54:51.800 I was just going to say

01:54:53.640 Alright, let's go to Sean

01:54:55.580 Let's go to Welfare Wolf

01:54:57.620 Welfare Wolf

01:54:58.380 I guess what's striking me about what's going on in Quebec

01:55:01.360 Is how well the Bloc is holding up 0.61

01:55:03.600 They're leading in about a dozen seats

01:55:05.880 And looks like

01:55:07.940 The Lower St. Lawrence is becoming a real battle

01:55:10.120 Between the Liberals and the Bloc 0.56

01:55:11.780 Okay, so

01:55:13.900 Let's bring in Reno

01:55:14.740 He knows about Quebec, I'm told

01:55:17.220 I've been there for most of my life

01:55:20.680 Yeah, I think that qualifies.

01:55:23.100 You sound like you know Quebec.

01:55:25.860 You're watching the results as they're coming in?

01:55:27.960 Absolutely.

01:55:29.040 You know, in a lot of those cases, we're still looking at writings with only one poll reporting.

01:55:35.380 So it's still very, very early on.

01:55:38.120 But really, if you want to know whether or not the Liberals are having a good night tonight, look at the writings around Montreal.

01:55:44.780 So not Laval, not the island of Montreal, but everything around it.

01:55:49.460 This is where liberals tend to make some gains against the Bloc Québécois.

01:55:53.920 If they're having a good night, this is where I'll go.

01:55:57.580 So far, there's not a lot of results coming from there.

01:56:01.740 Otherwise, what we're seeing in terms of results are from writings where we know roughly what to expect.

01:56:06.960 You know, in Quebec City, Gérald O'Dell's writing of Louis Saint Laurent,

01:56:11.800 it's not hard to know how that election is going to go.

01:56:16.020 is most likely going to go conservative.

01:56:18.800 Same with the Bols writing where 0.97

01:56:20.360 Maxime Bernier used to be.

01:56:22.400 This is likely going to go conservative.

01:56:24.780 It's some writings where the conservatives

01:56:26.400 stand to, or are

01:56:28.520 hoping to meet some gains.

01:56:30.440 The first one would be Momoros-Charlevois.

01:56:33.760 So this is...

01:56:34.420 Where is that?

01:56:35.720 This is right in between...

01:56:38.640 Oh, a little bit further

01:56:40.360 to the northeast.

01:56:43.240 Mostly east.

01:56:43.860 yeah there this one so yeah nothing there yeah there's and and there's a lot of so so where if

01:56:49.940 you want to understand where the conservatives get elected in uh the province of quebec is the

01:56:54.500 sagney like saison area is the quebec city area and it's the bose area and the moment i'll see

01:57:00.260 shall have was one writing that they've had that conservatives have had in the past uh they have

01:57:04.980 had they haven't had it for a couple of elections now but there's a possibility that they could get

01:57:09.860 it uh whether it is uh over there or in chicago the whole issue around logging around the woodland

01:57:17.220 caribou has been a significant issue because that's a significant employer for that region

01:57:22.500 uh the liberals uh came in with a plan where they uh sort of to try and save the caribou

01:57:29.540 were trending up to 2 000 jobs in those areas uh these people uh have been concerned about the uh

01:57:37.540 about these regulations the effect it would have on their livelihood they've had a couple of rounds

01:57:41.940 where whether it was the feds or the province that imposed some limits that have had some

01:57:45.940 effect on their livelihoods that have caused some job losses so maybe that's having the effect the

01:57:51.300 other part though uh is that these uh these places there uh there's a lot of softwood lumber that's

01:57:57.860 being uh cut down in the in those areas so it'll be good to see whether uh you know is the woodland

01:58:04.260 caribou issue and all the environmental green regulations giving jobs that uh matter most to

01:58:09.780 people or whether it is the issue of the tariffs and softwood lumber uh issue with us yeah uh all

01:58:16.020 right uh let's bring kent uh kent hair back in uh kent uh former liberal mp and cabinet minister

01:58:21.380 from alberta one of the few who have ever existed uh especially from especially from calgary um

01:58:27.540 So, okay, let's see. Do we have any results in from Confederation yet? I'm interested in Confederation.

01:58:36.560 It's my writing.

01:58:37.720 Okay, that's Sean's writing. I'm interested in that one. It's urban. It's a central city,

01:58:44.640 sorry, central urban constituency. So, I mean, you could naturally, you know, the NDP is competitive

01:58:50.440 have been it provincially so there's definitely some some leftist voters there um well i think

01:58:56.700 hogan is a strong candidate but he's um he didn't really he's very late to the game so is the

01:59:02.900 conservative uh nixon yeah uh they're both late to the game so i i just don't think the low i don't

01:59:07.820 think the local candidate is going to play a huge role there because they just haven't had time to

01:59:11.280 spend a year not overlap with where jeremy was though yeah in the northern part so he does have

01:59:17.920 some of that writing a little bit more name recognition probably some good data

01:59:24.480 yeah well corey being uh who he is he he has chops in the ndp and the liberal party

01:59:31.120 uh he ran that uh canada's uh best uh well-known uh podcast they're the strategists and i've been

01:59:39.440 no second sorry what's well okay then second best okay nevertheless he had a huge huge following in

01:59:47.120 that regard and if you look at if you look at then uh the number of people that came out and

01:59:52.720 volunteered the number of id votes they had uh had uh out in a 30-day campaign i was uh very

02:00:01.600 surprised at the total that they had and they were they were running up the good numbers and i and i

02:00:07.200 just think with the strength of his resume as well as uh uh the the lot of volunteers that i saw

02:00:15.360 And when I door knocked, there was a strong NDP candidate there, Kiara Gunn, and she had 0.95

02:00:22.480 been out campaigning.

02:00:24.060 She had signs all over the riding at the start of the campaign. 0.95

02:00:27.860 Every door I knocked that had an NDP sign said they were voting for Corey or already

02:00:34.860 had this weekend.

02:00:37.180 So that's where I look at really the cratering of the NDP vote.

02:00:41.900 Matt Grant almost won that riding, and I get it.

02:00:44.940 he did work for two years in it but i think it's also a more progressive riding possibly now than

02:00:52.380 it was uh uh almost a decade ago when matt run there so uh there's uh someone you served with

02:00:59.740 uh here i'm going to bring the map up uh back here um this is uh okay so erica was just talking about

02:01:07.500 how you know conservatives especially rural alberta and saskatchewan conservatives they're

02:01:12.300 all competing they're running against themselves and each other just for breaking rights about you

02:01:17.420 know how insanely conservative can your writing go uh funny enough the first uh constituency in

02:01:24.700 alberta actually called as elected is in calgary it's michelle remple michelle remple uh she's a 0.92

02:01:30.860 door knocker machine she is um i mean she she can't get the same numbers as someone in yellow 0.99

02:01:36.940 head or you know bow river it's not that kind of insanely rural hyper conservative writing but uh

02:01:45.020 60.1 um sean can you check on what she got in the last election that might be indicative she's

02:01:51.260 competing against herself she is and and sean sean can you can you check too on what the ndp

02:01:59.580 boat was in that writing last time okay what was the name of the writing calgary nose hill

02:02:04.700 every nose yeah now the ndp in that writing are at 2.3 percent they are in fringe party territory

02:02:14.380 at this point how many of you how many has the ppc got in there uh uh ppc actually is being beaten

02:02:21.180 by the marxist leninists and the rhinoceros party at this moment actually i'm not sure if they have

02:02:25.820 a candidate uh i can't i can't tell if they have a candidate but the marxist leninists are at 0.1

02:02:31.020 percent of the people uh and vanessa wang of uh the rhinoceros party point three you know i've

02:02:38.860 never voted rhino but i i've voted for some uh smaller parties and things in time one of these

02:02:44.920 days i'd like to vote rhino if there's a conservative candidate i don't like i'm

02:02:48.980 gonna do something i'd like a rhino i love that you just answered my question it's if you vote

02:02:53.140 ppc you vote for the rhino i i haven't voted federal until this election i have not voted

02:02:59.460 conservative federally since 2011. It's been a long time. But it's been over a decade.

02:03:06.580 Yeah. Okay. All right, Sean, you got something? Got some results. Okay. So this is a writing

02:03:11.460 that has been redistributed. So in the 2021 election, Michelle Rempel got 55% to the vote, 0.80

02:03:20.420 uh liberal 21 let's say new democratic 17 and then on a redistributed basis it's pretty much

02:03:30.220 the same yeah and you'll see that with a lot of calgary and edmonton writings where

02:03:35.140 by 10 blocks or whatever it looks like i want to bring kent in kent uh kent's kind of sticking

02:03:41.980 with us here yeah but so if you take a look at that ndp vote there you're talking it was 17

02:03:47.960 percent in 2021 and you're down to two percent now that that's a cratering of epic proportions

02:03:55.800 that i think uh carries uh the four four four seats in calgary and uh uh three up in edmonton

02:04:04.680 uh the the numbers just the math doesn't work for conservatives in those areas if the ndp

02:04:12.600 craters to that extent uh which i think it will um i think what's interesting here too is uh

02:04:21.240 rumple garner the incumbent spent about 100 grand the ndp spent nothing yeah well there's no point

02:04:27.400 in them spending money there uh party spend yeah well here i i want your reaction kent to uh some

02:04:33.640 more writings we got some early results coming in uh from edmonton edmonton southeast uh jarshan

02:04:41.320 Singh. He is going to hold that for the Conservatives. I mean, there's only one poll in,

02:04:47.200 but it looks like a fairly big poll. He's at 65. He's going to hold that. Edmonton Northwest.

02:04:54.520 That's a new one.

02:04:55.460 Okay, that's a new one. But there is a Conservative incumbent because it's been

02:04:58.240 redistributed around. Billy Morin. Again, only one poll in, but fairly big poll, 55.5. Edmonton

02:05:07.640 center that's obviously one uh we need to watch that is um saeed ahmed a former mayor of edmonton

02:05:16.360 nope there's a communist there they've got a communist i went and voted and it's quite a long

02:05:25.560 marxist leninist too yeah they do there's a communist this is the one if you guys were

02:05:30.200 watching twitter that there was an individual that showed up with like a half bottle of booze

02:05:35.880 now the type of liquor is going to escape me but uh he showed up with half a bottle and then the

02:05:41.960 moderator had to ask him to take it out because it was not like a licensed venue so they've been

02:05:47.320 making it i have his brochure of 150 policies like this one when i went to vote is like it's

02:05:52.600 quite a robust it's no pierre paulie of 95 candidates erica there's probably a lot of

02:05:58.200 people who would uh would like a bottle of booze when they go vote yeah who's here

02:06:05.880 I'm looking here.

02:06:08.780 So Edmonton Center has both a communist and a Marxist-Leninist candidate.

02:06:14.680 I think that goes back to the old split between Stalinists and Maoists

02:06:18.400 and Leninists and all these things.

02:06:20.100 It sounds like a kind of mirror image for the conservatives

02:06:22.680 and the people's party, doesn't it?

02:06:24.620 So my question is, are the communists and Marxist-Leninists

02:06:27.420 splitting the NDP vote?

02:06:28.640 Is that why they're losing so much?

02:06:30.140 Well, it could be close.

02:06:32.160 That could be part of the reason up there in Edmonton Center.

02:06:34.960 But I, you know, I'm actually surprised.

02:06:37.940 I don't know how many polls have been reported in there.

02:06:42.160 Just one.

02:06:43.200 You hit the big poll, but just one.

02:06:45.880 It's a big poll.

02:06:47.560 Yeah, I'm surprised.

02:06:49.060 Look, if you look at the NDP vote there, it's held up to that extent.

02:06:54.140 And that's a good number for them.

02:06:57.780 And if the NDP vote continues at that pace in Edmonton Center,

02:07:02.420 I think it might be a tough night for Eleanor up there.

02:07:06.740 I would be surprised if it sticks in at that number, but that's a big number.

02:07:11.620 That's a big hurdle for that candidate to get over.

02:07:14.500 Yeah, I will give a little context.

02:07:15.780 I was the president of that riding for six years,

02:07:18.260 so I do know this pulled inside and out and ran the 2015 campaign.

02:07:23.060 This was the former riding of both Randys, Boisdeneau.

02:07:28.900 and um and then eleanor came over from edmonton strathcona and so she was a late drop in as if 0.98

02:07:38.740 you live in this writing you've got a mailer for re-elect randy boss you know on day one of the

02:07:42.980 election uh so he didn't know what's happening she moved over on the saturday i think before

02:07:48.100 like the day before the writ dropped saeed amed ran in edmonton decor for the united conservative

02:07:53.940 party in the last election he's a door knocking machine i hit a lot of doors in some of the pools

02:07:58.740 were actually more favorable for the Conservatives than I thought. But this is a prime example

02:08:05.700 to Trisha Estabrook who is also a public school trustee and has been campaigning for two years.

02:08:10.980 This is probably the one where we'll actually see a vote split on the left and she will probably 1.00

02:08:17.780 get a very high NDP vote in comparison to I think what's Kent saying is some of those confederation

02:08:23.780 and maybe even some of the more

02:08:26.500 northeast ridings in

02:08:28.480 Calgary. I want to point out, if you look along the top

02:08:30.660 here, you'll see whether

02:08:31.520 the different parties have candidates leading and

02:08:34.480 elected. The NDP has only one

02:08:36.680 leading, and that one, I guarantee you

02:08:38.640 they have a 0.0% shot of

02:08:40.420 Leduc, Wetaskawin.

02:08:43.160 There's just

02:08:43.760 three small polls in there. The NDP

02:08:46.620 are... And they have what? Is it Mike Lakes,

02:08:48.780 right? Is that Mike Lakes?

02:08:50.960 Yeah, because it got redistributed. Yeah, Mike

02:08:52.420 It's like there's a 0.0% chance of the NDP winning there.

02:08:55.620 So in reality, the NDP is not leading in a single constituency across Alberta, Nigel.

02:09:01.940 Really?

02:09:03.080 No, across the country.

02:09:04.880 Just before I bolt, guys, I just want to hear your numbers, each of you,

02:09:12.540 and who you think, how many seats in Alberta you think the Liberals are going to get.

02:09:17.700 Start with you, Derek.

02:09:20.820 One to three.

02:09:23.320 Okay.

02:09:24.560 That's a range.

02:09:26.420 Yeah, I'll go.

02:09:27.580 I hate prime numbers on numbers, but I'll say three because they'll hold the two that they have plus one.

02:09:34.420 I'll stick with three as well, actually.

02:09:37.100 Yeah, I'm going to go with three as well, Ken, because I'm an optimist.

02:09:40.820 Well, I'm an outlier, but there we go.

02:09:44.460 Hey, but I've really appreciated my time here with you tonight.

02:09:48.140 All the best in your election coverage.

02:09:50.140 and uh uh we'll see uh well i'll see if i can talk to your uh landlord for you derek

02:09:56.560 next time thank you next time i'm rolling by your office okay hey you got it take care guys

02:10:03.680 all right thank you kent thanks kent all right uh now just uh just got word for the newsroom

02:10:09.460 polls have just closed in bc so we're going to start to get bc results soon uh let's bring up

02:10:15.400 the big map just you know renault's gonna bounce here oh okay uh we're gonna go to renault uh

02:10:21.120 before he has to go because there's lots of results in quebec uh we should be getting a

02:10:26.760 pretty good idea of how that is shaping up it's it appears to be looking pretty good for the

02:10:32.380 liberals in quebec it appears right now it appears like that uh it for for a lot of writings that

02:10:38.040 the bloc was hoping to uh to hold on uh it seems like they haven't been able so far again still

02:10:44.120 early on in the night. But if I may take you to one writing that I think is of part of their

02:10:49.240 interest, it's writing of Trois-Guyvières. So sort of like midway between Montreal and Quebec City.

02:10:55.000 So that writing, based on the latest polling aggregators, this was one of those writings

02:11:02.760 where they were polling at 30% for the Liberals, 30% for the Conservatives, 30% for the Bloc.

02:11:09.480 The Conservative candidates there has been trying to win it for three elections in a row.

02:11:13.640 And so far, there's 14 polls reporting. So we're still early on, but we're starting to get an idea. It seems like the Liberals are very far ahead in that writing. The story there is, so the Bloc candidate, René Lippe-Villemure, who's their current MP, found out he had cancer a little bit before the election and was not able to campaign.

02:11:36.340 Yves Levesque from the Conservatives has tried and has been campaigning.

02:11:41.040 You know, the last couple of times around, he managed to get, within only a couple of votes from winning.

02:11:47.960 But now, like, the Liberals have a significant, like, a 20-point lead on both the Bloc and the Conservatives.

02:11:58.360 So, you know, when we say that the liberal, the bloc vote doesn't seem like it's holding as much in Quebec as they were expected or as they were hoping, this is one of those writings that's showing that.

02:12:12.000 okay uh all right uh anything else that's uh standing out in quebec for you right now

02:12:21.180 um i mean i'm looking around quebec city uh that's kind of conservative territory uh montreal

02:12:27.960 i mean lower montreal on the island liberal i mean like if the liberals are not getting wiped

02:12:33.660 out in quebec they're gonna hold that north shore of the island uh leaning block so far uh let's

02:12:40.820 look at this one. Not enough votes there to really say. It's leaning

02:12:44.720 blocks so far in a couple of areas. But if you look at every single

02:12:48.740 one of those writings, not a lot of them have a lot of

02:12:52.720 polls reporting. So that's why it's still very early.

02:12:56.380 Right now, a lot of those are advanced voting polls. They're not necessarily

02:13:00.260 so they're not E-Day polls. The advanced

02:13:04.600 voting seem to be going very well for the liberals. So maybe the block is going

02:13:08.680 do a little bit better than what we're

02:13:10.740 seeing right now.

02:13:12.340 But if I was with Block right now,

02:13:14.920 if I was

02:13:15.500 at their party watching the election,

02:13:19.520 I think this is about the time

02:13:20.980 where I'd be switching to Hard Licker

02:13:22.800 right now.

02:13:24.500 Ooh, that's a way to finish it.

02:13:26.400 Were you talking to us to do that?

02:13:30.700 Not yet, not yet.

02:13:31.820 Okay, just checking.

02:13:34.080 But thank you so much for having me.

02:13:35.700 This was an absolute pleasure, and

02:13:37.560 And best of luck with the rest of your election coverage.

02:13:41.980 And fingers crossed, let's hope we get a good result.

02:13:45.700 All I wanted is a block for the West.

02:13:48.220 So I don't get to have that.

02:13:50.680 That's not the cards, unfortunately.

02:13:52.620 Renault, thank you very much.

02:13:54.480 I really appreciate your insights,

02:13:56.080 helping to explain what's happening in Quebec for us.

02:13:59.880 Happy to help. Have a wonderful day.

02:14:02.060 All right.

02:14:03.800 We're going to come back to Kevin Lacey soon.

02:14:07.080 But we have another great guest.

02:14:11.100 We're going to bring in Franco Terrazano.

02:14:13.460 Franco Terrazano is the federal director of the Canadian Tax Federation.

02:14:17.820 Even more importantly, he was also the Alberta director before that.

02:14:21.560 In my opinion, he's the more senior of the jobs because that's the one I held.

02:14:25.120 Thank you for joining us, Franco.

02:14:26.680 Derek, did you just have to look down on the piece of paper to remember my name?

02:14:30.560 No, no.

02:14:31.180 I was seeing if there was anyone in the line before you because we've got some other guests.

02:14:34.100 And we're just seeing if that other guest is before or after you

02:14:37.240 You're first in line

02:14:38.380 So they were actually first

02:14:40.900 But you're just so pretty that we had to put you on

02:14:43.060 Oh guys

02:14:44.720 Well hey, it's really my pleasure to be on the show

02:14:46.920 With you tonight, I think we're going to have a fun chat

02:14:48.800 Right on

02:14:50.100 Okay

02:14:51.400 I know the caveats for you

02:14:53.700 Your group is non-partisan

02:14:55.700 But I mean, holds fiscally conservative views

02:14:58.820 But isn't affiliated with any political party

02:15:00.800 So I know the rules around you

02:15:02.520 but uh we're gonna get you to play i know your boss scott doesn't like you playing pundit but

02:15:07.240 i'm gonna make you play pundit because that's what we're doing tonight um let's look at the

02:15:11.220 ontario results i'm gonna pull up the map here uh we're starting to get quite a few results coming

02:15:16.500 in from ontario uh some of it's still early some of it's not but we're getting we're getting an

02:15:21.620 idea uh anything standing out for the ontario results for you right now well you know before

02:15:25.900 i go to ontario let's actually go back to atlanta canada for just a quick sec the last i checked

02:15:30.200 I don't know if it's been updated, but were the Conservatives winning, what, 10 seats out there?

02:15:34.740 Is that correct?

02:15:35.660 That looks about right.

02:15:36.560 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

02:15:40.320 Yeah, they're leading or elected in 10.

02:15:42.740 So some pretty good pickups.

02:15:44.440 They're winning all the toss-ups.

02:15:47.100 They're even picking up two ratings.

02:15:49.460 The 338 Canada had predicted were actually pretty solidly liberal.

02:15:53.700 So that's a two-seat gain, but also drastically different than many of the polls were showing, right?

02:15:58.680 So look, if that trend holds, and if the polls are wrong, well, why is that? So if that happens,

02:16:05.340 it's because people are ticked off, right? Over the last 10 years, the Trudeau government doubled

02:16:10.380 the debt, made the necessities of life more expensive, where people struggled to get groceries.

02:16:15.360 For how many years now, people wanted to win every time they went to a gas station or saw

02:16:20.300 their heating bill, right? So if the polls are off, it's because people are fed up with the cost

02:16:24.260 of living like that's that's going to be what it is at the end of the day if all the mainstream

02:16:28.520 polls what they're reporting which showed a liberal majority or a liberal minority if they're

02:16:32.840 off at the end of the day it's just that people were fed up with a government that printed money

02:16:37.180 like crazy like high taxes and ran crazy deficits so i guess we're still early in the night so to

02:16:43.280 speak but uh if the polls are wrong that's why okay well the the results in um ontario you got

02:16:50.740 something yeah okay we're going to quickly switch to shown here for an update well um i'm just

02:16:57.340 looking at some of these border ridings in ontario so here we got essex uh which was a conservative

02:17:02.880 riding incumbent who's down mind you again it's still pretty early but the endp used to be

02:17:09.100 competitive there well and these would be the writings that would be affected by uh tariffs

02:17:13.080 so here again here's another conservative that's down uh to the liberal uh you know in in the heart

02:17:19.400 of the automaking uh territory um here's another one conservative incumbent oh okay okay uh okay

02:17:28.060 we gotta actually go back to show we've got some bc as well yeah okay we're gonna get we'll get the

02:17:32.120 bc soon but we have a limited time left with uh kevin lacy uh our uh atlantic albertan um uh kevin

02:17:41.440 the numbers in atlantic are starting to firm up uh there's still some that are not yet called

02:17:47.540 but uh we're getting a pretty good idea of things there right now look just to pick up on what

02:17:52.920 franco said i think if you were tuning in tonight you're expecting to see a large liberal victory

02:17:58.700 with dear oliver's numbers going significantly down the atlantic numbers really don't tell that

02:18:05.200 story and in fact and i think the big story tonight is going to be about the ndp and derrick

02:18:10.520 i'm going to actually steal an ontario riding to kind of illustrate this if you look at the

02:18:15.220 riding of toronto danforth toronto danforth was the riding that jack layton helped it is his seat

02:18:20.700 tonight the ndp are running third in that seat and that is changing the map but even despite that

02:18:28.180 the conservatives are hanging on so for all the waxing on twitter by conservative pundits and

02:18:34.920 others criticizing care poliver tonight he's hanging on so far and i think that's when we

02:18:40.700 we look at the election and what we're a lot was discussed about what's going to happen after this

02:18:45.800 election um polymer's numbers remain very very strong and uh i think we're going to see that as

02:18:52.720 this election plays out that we're going to essentially hold the second thing we're going to

02:18:57.080 see is we're going to go back canada is going to go back to a two-party system and when it goes

02:19:01.880 back to a two-party system that will also change the political dynamics and the discussion and i

02:19:07.940 think in a good way because we'll have a very clear division on issues and people will be able

02:19:14.300 to easily see you know which side of the fence that they're going to sit on. All right anything

02:19:23.440 else before we let you go let's just just maybe a bit more on the Atlantic itself because we're

02:19:28.140 going to start to turn our attention away from there as as things settle in. Again conservatives

02:19:33.240 I think it's fair to say have won all the toss ups and have even pulled off, but not confirmed yet, but are poised to to pull a few one to two upsets in Atlantic.

02:19:47.580 Anything big stand out in Atlantic before we let you go?

02:19:51.300 Yeah, the big one is that central Nova seat.

02:19:53.120 So that's Peter McKay's former riding that he held during his time in office.

02:19:58.820 It was held by Sean Frazier, largely on the cult of personality, to be fair.

02:20:03.240 Peter McKay threw every hour he had into that riding to win it for the Conservatives.

02:20:10.260 And if they hold on tonight, it's a bit of a retribution for Peter because he's put so much effort into holding that one for the Conservatives.

02:20:20.060 And also, as you look kind of across where the Liberals are going to have their support, they need to win these seats.

02:20:26.420 This is where, in order to grow their mandate, they need to win Conservative seats.

02:20:31.620 and they're not doing it anywhere the only seat they've won uh that i can see on this map so far

02:20:36.820 is south shore st margaret's and that's a riding that didn't have an ndp candidate um so you know

02:20:43.780 when you kind of look at the the how this is playing out um these two story lines are going

02:20:48.740 to be significant in how we look at the vote afterwards and how politics is going to look

02:20:53.700 in this country afterwards because i think the debates are going to be significantly different

02:20:57.860 um without the smaller parties involved okay uh all right well kevin lacy thank you very much for

02:21:05.220 your insight uh atlantic has uh given us a few uh few surprises appreciate your time thanks so much

02:21:12.740 for having me derek you guys do a great job thank you uh franco um so i want to talk ontario you you

02:21:21.220 thus far refused i asked him on ontario went straight back to atlantic i'm sick of atlantic

02:21:25.140 We've been talking about Atlantic all night.

02:21:28.140 Not a ton of firm numbers in Ontario yet, but we're getting a good sense.

02:21:34.320 It's looking, the map of Toronto I've got here, it's got the Conservatives.

02:21:40.420 Sorry, one second.

02:21:44.000 CBC apparently has just.

02:21:45.440 So has CTV.

02:21:46.660 Yeah, I'm seeing that as well.

02:21:48.420 And I just saw that on Twitter too.

02:21:51.540 Looks like CTV is saying liberal win.

02:21:54.340 i just saw that on majority or minority yet they're not sure yeah it says well they report

02:22:00.400 123 which i have no idea how they got there on ctv but you only have 108 108 uh i'm i don't know

02:22:08.720 i'm not seeing it yet uh i'm not seeing a liberal majority in these numbers yet i mean it could be

02:22:15.220 pulled off because they're gonna uh it depends on what kind of gains they make at the expense

02:22:19.000 of the ndp and the block well you're not gonna tell much from quebec because the ndp only ever

02:22:23.240 had one one seat there in the last parliament so there wasn't a lot of ndp votes to like eight or

02:22:30.440 nine percent of it so that wasn't going to tell you much i thought that what was in the happened

02:22:35.560 in the maritimes is very interesting and if that actually held through ontario then i think cbc

02:22:42.040 may be regretting calling their giving their result so quickly in fairness ctv says they want

02:22:48.600 not a majority oh okay yeah they're declaring liberal victory like liberals win

02:22:58.600 that threshold yeah i saw cb i see you guys just posted it on uh on this chat too it says cbc

02:23:04.360 nctv now um but yeah i haven't seen online if they're calling anything more than just that

02:23:11.080 yeah uh well let's look at the map i'm i mean it's the most likely scenario but i

02:23:16.600 It might be a bit premature.

02:23:19.440 So looking around Toronto here, it looks so far as it predictably does,

02:23:25.080 except it's not going to have a single orange seat in Toronto, I think.

02:23:31.140 Probably safe to say at this point.

02:23:33.160 But the Conservatives are leading Mississauga Centre.

02:23:38.020 That would be a pickup.

02:23:39.420 Etobicoke North, that would be a pickup.

02:23:42.600 Again, there's not enough yet in on these polls.

02:23:47.200 But the Conservatives do appear to be advancing inward on Fortress Toronto.

02:23:54.040 Skirmishing in the suburbs.

02:23:55.760 Skirmishing in the suburbs.

02:23:58.460 You know, New Market Aurora is kind of one of the must-win for the Conservatives.

02:24:02.320 That is razor-thin right now, 49.2 for the Conservatives, Sandra Coben, 0.72

02:24:07.540 and for 49 for the incumbent liberal, Jennifer McLaughlin.

02:24:14.720 I don't know.

02:24:18.100 Daniel, is it a premature call yet?

02:24:21.380 Or, you know, they have a bigger staff than we do.

02:24:24.640 Maybe they're seeing something that we're not.

02:24:26.400 Well, you know, we all tend to see what we want to see.

02:24:29.520 I mean, anybody who's watching this program knows that we tend to favor the conservative outlook.

02:24:36.560 so we're hoping for a conservative win in the cbc they have every good reason actually 1.6 billion

02:24:43.040 of them 150 yeah plus a little more coming to uh to anticipate as a liberal win okay but it's it's

02:24:53.360 very embarrassing i mean calling it doesn't mean that will be the doesn't affect the actual result

02:24:58.320 it'd be very embarrassing for cbc and ctv to have to call it back it's not very pleasant to so they

02:25:03.680 they must have a fair degree of confidence in doing so it's it's sticking your neck out there

02:25:08.020 if you're wrong especially when you're the cbc i think you can see enough now though that there

02:25:13.380 really isn't a good path to a conservative win i mean they're kind of i think doing it in a

02:25:16.840 reverse order in a sense not that there's a big bunch of liberal strength but now with the way

02:25:20.780 things are lying out in quebec and ontario uh it's hard to envision how especially when it's

02:25:27.400 those more dense urban areas that are waiting on the results for they're taking a safe bet

02:25:31.840 hey guys do you have um do you guys have where like the the seat totals in quebec right now

02:25:37.200 among leading and expected to win yeah like how many how many are the block at because they were

02:25:42.120 at 32 heading into this election sitting at 15 right now well yeah thank you block and ndp for

02:25:50.840 showing up thanks for coming out guys and i mean that's that's like where the story i think really

02:25:56.880 lies as as kevin was kind of saying right just the absolute collapse of the ndp from being like so

02:26:02.320 close to the polling with the liberals back in the fall session to just being completely decimated

02:26:07.120 right like orange orange crushed you know what i mean so you know i think that's probably the

02:26:12.160 most obvious place to look right now is what happened to those uh secondary parties yeah i

02:26:18.160 think even i don't know what ctv has it but they have the ndp at three which is even lower than

02:26:23.920 every poll i think every poll i saw had them at least six as halfway to party status so like this

02:26:30.640 is and if you talk to any ndp pundit they were like they're gonna at least have six um because

02:26:36.880 they show up more and they've only focused on holding their seats so they need 12 to be an

02:26:42.240 official party within the house yeah yeah so they were saying yeah yeah but okay so they're leading

02:26:47.280 they're leading in three nationally but uh look at what they are like some of them are ones that

02:26:51.920 that they have a 0% chance of winning.

02:26:53.260 There's just one random pull-in.

02:26:56.720 Like, Leduc-Wetaskiwin, 0% chance.

02:26:59.140 Oh, yeah.

02:26:59.600 Seattle River Crowfoot.

02:27:01.380 The Conservatives are going to get, like,

02:27:04.080 it would be a terrible election for Damian Couric there

02:27:07.360 if he got 75%.

02:27:08.500 He will be humiliated if he gets only 75% in that riding.

02:27:12.200 That is a mega-conservative riding.

02:27:14.520 So take that out of the cards.

02:27:17.000 Churchill Kiewetnogaski, that's an incumbent.

02:27:21.320 seat liberal uh NDP uh Nikki Ashton uh yeah they got a chance of holding that one uh maybe

02:27:27.560 uh then uh then who knows territories those are weird elections up there uh but I mean they have

02:27:33.360 two which I I would think Strathcona they're gonna hold um Griesbach I think will probably

02:27:39.040 go conservative um because I think both them and and then Edmonton Center is a toss-up so

02:27:45.340 hey I got a question for you guys I got two questions now I get to be the interviewer

02:27:49.640 um hey so two questions are you guys with your data that you're seeing are you guys seeing the

02:27:53.880 same thing as ctv and cbc and now the only question is vote share and if they get a minority or

02:27:58.840 majority is that what you guys are seeing with your data uh well it's got the liberals leading

02:28:04.920 in 108 now that does not mean you can look a lot further because it depends where you're leading

02:28:10.280 like if the liberals are leading uh strongly in saskatchewan well that means it's probably just

02:28:17.160 a good night for them if the conservatives are leading in toronto it's gonna be a good night so

02:28:21.320 you don't actually have to have all the results in to be able to predict because you can build

02:28:25.160 out on your model you know uh it's easy even easier to do an american presidential elections

02:28:30.920 because you okay these ones are predictably here these ones are there if this state goes this way

02:28:35.240 then there's a good chance that state will go that way and do we have any do we have any red

02:28:39.080 in alberta showing yet like is there any because i saw some points there might be some pickup uh

02:28:44.200 Edmonton, Riverbend, but there's only a single poll out, less than 100 votes.

02:28:48.340 So can't put much on that reliably.

02:28:53.020 Well, that's Matt Jennerou, who, even with the boundary redistribution, he got heavier into conservative territory.

02:29:00.320 Yeah.

02:29:01.300 Like he lost some of the champagne socialists he had before.

02:29:05.360 If the liberals win that, they're looking at mega-majority government.

02:29:08.700 Yeah, oh, for sure.

02:29:09.200 And we're not looking at mega-majority government.

02:29:10.540 I don't think that's right.

02:29:11.340 These are just low polls coming in for the colors that we see.

02:29:15.660 Yeah.

02:29:16.780 You know, we should get some of our reporters in here.

02:29:20.160 Dave, if you're listening, why don't you queue up, we don't have them in the stream yet,

02:29:24.760 but let's get, if you want to start getting some of our reporters lined up to come on

02:29:29.640 in here.

02:29:30.360 In the meantime, let's bring in Nadine Wellwood. 0.85

02:29:33.320 Nadine, I think, correct me if I'm wrong, I think is from Cochran or the Cochran area.

02:29:38.940 Am I right about that, Nadine?

02:29:40.040 You are indeed.

02:29:40.640 All right, Cochrane, for Easterners watching, is a lovely little town west of, just northwest of Calgary.

02:29:49.640 Is that a part of the Yellowfoot? Which riding is that a part of now?

02:29:54.860 That is the Cochrane, so Banff, it used to be Banff Airdrie. It is now Cochrane Airdrie.

02:30:01.820 Okay, okay, so it narrowly missed out on being a part of the Yellowhead riding,

02:30:04.940 which goes from south of Calgary, south of Banff, all the way up to Jasper.

02:30:11.100 It includes part of Rocky View County west of Calgary and things like that.

02:30:16.200 All right, so Nadine, I don't know if you still are,

02:30:19.260 but I've generally always considered you kind of a People's Party supporter.

02:30:23.420 So we wanted to bring in for your perspective tonight,

02:30:26.080 it's not the greatest night for the People's Party.

02:30:30.120 I'm looking at BOSE that has been called for the Conservatives.

02:30:33.240 Maxime Bernier running fourth at 5.3% of the vote.

02:30:39.800 I think some of us, you know, from the regular pipeline panel, we've been kind of operating under the assumption that the last election was probably the high watermark of the PPC.

02:30:52.260 You had a very left-leaning conservative leader who was running on vaccine passports, who was running on a carbon tax.

02:31:01.100 uh really you know then you had the outcry uh against covid restrictions those kinds of things

02:31:09.680 really playing to ppc strengths and then the conservatives running on the least conservative

02:31:14.820 platform in the history of the modern conservative party since its unification of 2004 uh i don't

02:31:22.300 mean to sound delicate but do you think was that the high watermark of the ppc uh is it kind of

02:31:27.080 looking like the party's over? Well I don't know if it was a high watermark for the PPC but I

02:31:31.740 certainly know this election and I knew this going in that it would be the low watermark for the PPC

02:31:36.560 because the Conservative Party is so strong in mimicking some of the policies of the PPC. I mean

02:31:42.960 if you wanted to look at the PPC and you want to do a comparison on parties just on policy like

02:31:49.000 take the emotion the party politics out and just look at policies um the ppc has the ideal platform

02:31:57.480 for albertans but unfortunately you know for better or for worse uh people don't vote for

02:32:03.800 policies uh they vote for people and they vote their party so you know i think uh i wouldn't

02:32:09.320 say that necessarily the people's party is out um i do agree that this uh candidacy and this campaign

02:32:19.000 all the way along is was a two pony race this is a two horse race between the liberals and

02:32:23.720 the conservatives um have always been a strong advocate for the people's party of canada their

02:32:29.080 their policies but they didn't stand a chance in this election it's um i i'm sympathetic with uh

02:32:37.480 you know suicidal fringe party runs uh in a two-party race i'm i'm highly sympathetic to

02:32:43.080 The PPC is not the only one losing in this. The block is down. NDP is gone. I mean, they're wiped

02:32:50.720 out. And if you want to look at the numbers before I came on here, I did look at, I snuck over to CBC

02:32:56.900 to see what they were saying. And they made up a very interesting point. The liberals only had to

02:33:02.360 pick up 18 seats for a majority win. So I think tomorrow morning in the Alberta legislature,

02:33:10.540 We need to be discussing Alberta pension plan, police force, collecting our own taxes, and we need to get on with it.

02:33:17.680 I'm tired of the roller coaster, and I think a lot of Albertans are going to be very, very disappointed, I think, with the results of tonight's election.

02:33:27.880 I have a feeling we're going to be talking about more than just pensions.

02:33:31.360 i didn't know i think the uh the time would uh you know bring in home our pension plan

02:33:38.680 would uh placate uh albertans i think that time has passed significantly uh i'm really hopeful

02:33:46.560 it is i think albertans are going to take a very strong stance i mean mark carney is not going to

02:33:54.080 be a friend of alberta mark carney is a globalist i mean you look at what he did with g fans um his

02:34:00.860 net zero, UN envoy. This is going to be a disaster for Albertans. So I am truly, and I know there's

02:34:09.000 some people on your panel and yourself probably included, but I think separation is going to be

02:34:14.720 on the minds of an awful lot of Albertans tomorrow morning. Well, I mean, you'd put it to you

02:34:19.920 directly. Is it on yours? It is. There's a reason I did not run for the PPC this time around.

02:34:26.920 You know, I'm a big advocate.

02:34:28.140 It wasn't about winning or losing.

02:34:29.760 It was about holding the space for the ideas.

02:34:33.020 But my heart wasn't in it.

02:34:34.700 The more I looked at it, the more I realized that honestly,

02:34:38.360 and being a chartered investment manager,

02:34:40.340 somebody who follows the economics,

02:34:41.980 who's now been involved in politics for a very long time,

02:34:44.800 the only thing that I think Alberta can honestly do

02:34:48.320 if it truly wants to have a secure future,

02:34:51.040 not only for, you know, you and I, Derek,

02:34:53.320 but for our children, is to separate.

02:34:56.080 all right uh we're gonna bring you back uh but we're gonna oh do we still have franco

02:35:00.400 yeah yeah derek i'm here but i gotta i gotta jet pretty soon on to the next thing but yeah i want

02:35:05.560 to get you in before before you've got to go uh you're watching this from uh from ottawa i know

02:35:09.940 you're in albertan but you've been exiled to do the uh out to mordor you're doing god's work out

02:35:15.400 there but uh you're living in exile right now um maybe let's talk big picture if if we're looking

02:35:23.180 at another liberal government tonight uh this would appear to be the east disproportionately

02:35:30.920 the east voting to double down on what we've been doing for the last decade uh i think it's

02:35:39.680 there are grave implications not just for taxpayers but for the fabric of the country

02:35:43.920 itself at this point well look i mean for a long time now alburns have been you know the cash cow

02:35:50.420 of confederation what is it now like probably more than 20 billion dollars every year leaving

02:35:55.280 alberta not coming back right you have politicians calling alberta's economic engine dirty energy

02:36:02.080 right how many like the no more pipelines law the discriminatory tanker ban right the government

02:36:06.940 rejecting the northern gateway pipeline moving the regulatory goalposts on energy east you know

02:36:12.460 i remember uh the winter of 2015 when people were leaving their offices in downtown calgary and

02:36:18.380 droves, cardboard boxes in hand. So I remember the devastation firsthand and then add on top of

02:36:25.300 that disastrous government policies that kicked out burdens while they were down. And look,

02:36:30.920 we talk about all these different energy policies. Another thing you have to remember is who's going

02:36:36.040 to be paying the overshare of all this government debt? Well, the Kearney government or the Kearney

02:36:41.680 platform wanted to add more debt than Trudeau. Kearney's talking about $225 billion of extra

02:36:48.160 debt over the next four years. Well, guess who's paying a large share of that? It's you guys. It's

02:36:53.960 Albertans. It's my family. It's my friends back in Calgary. So yeah, I mean, I think it's no

02:36:59.640 surprise that there's going to be many people in Alberta and the prairies that are going to

02:37:04.100 feel pretty awful right now. There's a lot of work to do. And as I mentioned, $225 billion

02:37:09.920 in extra debt from Carney, right? He's supposed to be the banker, but you know, the banker's budget

02:37:15.800 was worse than the drama teachers right carney's gonna add almost a hundred billion dollars of more 0.99

02:37:20.920 debt than trudeau well you know who's gonna love this debt bankers yeah i was gonna say

02:37:26.600 the bond fund the bond fund managers on bay street that's who's gonna be happy 0.99

02:37:34.680 uh it's just wild to me that these could do something this stupid i just have a question 0.99

02:37:42.920 for Franco. Do you have a book? I do. Yeah. You're good. You're good. Well, and you know what? It's 0.93

02:37:50.320 timely now more than ever, axing the tax, the rise and fall of Canada's carbon tax. And it

02:37:56.280 details the fight ahead, right? Because as everyone knows, Carney doesn't want to scrap

02:38:00.200 carbon taxes, right? He wrote essentially a 500 book praising carbon taxes. He wants to change

02:38:06.260 the carbon tax. He wants to hide the carbon tax and hit our businesses with it. And he hopes you

02:38:11.780 won't notice when your life gets more expensive and when it pushes canadian businesses and jobs

02:38:17.160 to set up shop south of the border uh so thank you so much for that plug axing the tax the rise

02:38:22.720 and fall of canada's carbon tax and also folks thank you so much for having me on your show

02:38:27.460 today i do have to jet but it's always fun talking to my friends back home in calgary it's a pleasure

02:38:32.620 and uh i know who else has a book that might be in high demand uh tomorrow i'll be talking about

02:38:37.660 my book a little bit i suspect all right all right thanks everyone thank you very much bye

02:38:43.180 okay uh i can see some of our reporters uh standing by uh let's see what time is oh actually

02:38:51.400 we have uh before we go to our reporter uh some of our reporters around the country i want to bring

02:38:55.860 in uh yaroslav baron uh he was uh i think the senior policy advisor for stephen harper uh at

02:39:04.640 least sometime of the government uh i guess you would have worked with nigel when nigel was uh 0.93

02:39:09.460 the prime minister's speechwriter in his day sure nigel and i go way back way back way back yeah i 0.64

02:39:17.140 was running comms for harper through three elections and i remember nigel's uh silver

02:39:22.920 quilled speeches very well when he was back back when he was a speechwriter all right well you know

02:39:28.000 what since you guys are old chums uh nigel why don't you take it with uh with uh yaroslav well 0.99

02:39:33.160 Jaroslav, I mean, every month or so I have you on The Hannaford Show and I say, well,

02:39:37.560 how are things going in Ottawa tonight? I'm afraid to ask. CTV has apparently called it,

02:39:43.640 and Apple News, not necessarily the first place I'd go to for an election prediction,

02:39:50.040 but they've called it CBC. So what do you think? Are we in for another liberal minority?

02:39:56.120 Well, nobody's called it a majority or minority yet, so fingers crossed. I mean,

02:40:02.040 the uh we've still got a little bit of time before it comes in but you know what there's still a lot

02:40:05.720 of unknowns i was just doing some checking and like you know some you know a whole bunch of

02:40:09.800 cabinet ministers you think would be a shoe-in they haven't even started reporting on their

02:40:13.000 writings yet so you know we may be in for uh for a bit of a long night still and there might even

02:40:18.120 be some surprises like the conservatives had a pretty strong uh pretty strong start to the

02:40:22.680 evening in atlantic canada at least bucking the predictions from the polls and you know

02:40:27.960 You know, a whole bunch of results are still trickling in some of the writings where we're seeing declared for, you know, for the liberals or, frankly, for the conservatives, for that matter, are based on, you know, three or four polls having reported in so far, which really means nothing.

02:40:44.200 So it's a little bit early. It's a little bit early to be making out of a call, any kind of a call.

02:40:49.000 Well, that's certainly what I've been quietly telling people who are just texting in and saying, is it really this bad?

02:40:56.320 And I said, well, not yet, not yet.

02:40:58.460 Don't jump.

02:40:59.240 Don't jump.

02:41:00.260 Yeah, don't jump off the building yet.

02:41:02.720 But if the numbers didn't change much and we go back with the same liberal people led by a different liberal leader, are we going to get the same policies or is Mr. Carney going to take things in a different direction?

02:41:24.480 well look let's let's hope that there will be some change in policy um i'm going to be an

02:41:32.560 optimist here nigel i'm going to be an optimist uh the liberals know that if they were still running 0.88

02:41:39.600 justin trudeau and running the same platform they would have been nose diving off of a cliff right

02:41:47.120 now they know that they're not dumb they get that they change leaders they got a centrist leader

02:41:53.760 somebody arguably you know a red Tory leader type and they ran a much more centrist they would argue

02:42:03.440 center-right platform okay so they realized that they needed to do that to win so it's really

02:42:12.160 risky to pull on a full-on bait and switch to present to present something in the lead up to

02:42:19.600 the election and on election day and to go right back to the way it was before so here's me being

02:42:25.600 the optimist that they recognize that the public didn't want to buy their krap anymore so they

02:42:34.720 needed to change up the menu and i would like to think that they're going to continue with the menu

02:42:40.800 that they now served up because they want to stay in the public's good graces right they don't want

02:42:45.760 want this to be the last election that they won. So that's me being an optimist, that they recognize

02:42:50.740 the public has shifted and that they're going to continue to shift with it. Well, you know,

02:42:56.460 obviously we want to say, Arislaff, we hope you're right. But Mr. Carney has made his whole career,

02:43:03.700 certainly the last 20 years, has been all about climate change all the time. And he's been quite,

02:43:09.820 that's one of the few things that he has been forthright upon on the campaign trail.

02:43:13.920 Well, as Franco said, I think, were you with us?

02:43:18.120 Well, Franco Teresano, yeah.

02:43:21.160 Like starting off with a $250 billion borrow.

02:43:25.960 I mean, Mr. Trudeau must be thinking, well, why wouldn't they have let me do that?

02:43:30.140 That's amazing.

02:43:31.080 It's outrageous.

02:43:33.140 Actually, remember, Nigel, back in 2015, do you remember what a big gamble it was for Justin Trudeau to say, hang on, folks, hang on.

02:43:43.000 i know that we're all supposed to be fiscally responsible we're all supposed to be running

02:43:47.560 valid judges i'm gonna run a 10 billion one zero uh deficit every year for three years and then

02:43:57.480 i'm gonna rebounce the books and that was a heck of a ban of a gamble for us and it paid off he won

02:44:03.320 but he it was risky i mean a whole bunch of liberals were freaking out because they were

02:44:08.520 proposing to add 30 billion dollars to the national debt right and how how things have changed since

02:44:16.920 then you know that he can run a quarter trillion dollar deficit platform or debt you know out of

02:44:23.480 debt platform and the public went for it i don't know sorry just i i want to bring nadine in uh

02:44:30.120 just one last time before we let her go uh i just kind of want to wrap up the talk around the ppc

02:44:34.920 here uh so i as we discussed this is obviously not the ppc's night uh maybe i i think last time

02:44:43.080 was probably the high watermark because they had such a great set of issues to go on and they had

02:44:46.860 such a great foil in erin o'toole as this faux conservative um but you know the party is max 1.00

02:44:55.080 it's it's both the policies but it's also around the personality and figure of maxime bernier

02:45:01.040 um do you think it's time uh if not to either to kind of fold the party or at the very least

02:45:09.680 is it time for new leadership well it's definitely time to have a discussion about that um you know

02:45:15.240 for me you know the ppc party was never really a part of this election process you know to yarrow's

02:45:22.060 point yarrow i do believe his point here you know he's being optimistic about the liberals i am going

02:45:26.980 to i i am a chartered investment manager i work in the world of finance um carney is a centralist

02:45:31.940 he's a global banker and you know he is going to a quarter of a trillion let's let's get out

02:45:38.340 of the billion language he is going to print because we don't have the money so he's going

02:45:44.020 to print borrow you know a quarter of a trillion dollars um just this year in his budget and we

02:45:51.460 is this money that we don't have we're already at 1.2 trillion in debt and that's unsustainable

02:45:57.060 we're printing out 50 billion dollars a year in interest payments um you know we have a small

02:46:01.940 population of 41 million people and the reality is carney is who he is he's never been shy to

02:46:07.940 explain even in this camp campaign he's told canadians what he's going to do and he's told

02:46:13.700 canadians in his book values that um he is going to make life harder for canadians expect a drop

02:46:21.140 in your standard of living expect things to get more expensive expect taxes to go up more

02:46:25.700 regulation less free speech um firearms he's already after saying he's going to come after

02:46:31.060 you know guns how is all this going to affect albertans um this and he's been very honest

02:46:36.020 about that already in this campaign so imagine what he is going to do when he wins a majority

02:46:43.220 government and he has four years to execute on this uh i mean that it's it's really for alberta

02:46:49.860 This is a very, very, it's kind of interesting.

02:46:52.960 It's going to be a great opportunity for the separatist movement, I think,

02:46:57.880 to really kind of fight for what is right for Alberta

02:47:01.400 and an opportunity to either get something that is an appropriate representation and or get out.

02:47:10.060 And so I'm quite excited.

02:47:12.120 I think it's going to be a very interesting day come tomorrow.

02:47:14.920 And I think we're going to have some interesting conversations

02:47:17.660 moving forward here over the next few months.

02:47:21.460 Nadine, thank you very much for joining us.

02:47:23.500 My pleasure.

02:47:24.520 Anytime.

02:47:25.360 I'm always around and happy to share an opinion,

02:47:28.540 as you very well know.

02:47:29.740 And I'm glad to see, Derek,

02:47:31.860 that the political correctness

02:47:33.440 has not changed at the Western Standard.

02:47:36.140 It is so refreshing.

02:47:39.280 Yeah, that's kind of our policy.

02:47:42.080 Thank you.

02:47:43.560 Nadine, it's just a different political correctness.

02:47:46.340 can i just come back to um yaroslav you know yaroslav a pendulum group which i think is

02:47:55.560 what you you've called your your your group um your business is advising politicians now

02:48:02.260 when i look at the way that the conservatives have conducted the campaign they were basically

02:48:07.360 on message with the things that people care about their jobs their security their homes

02:48:12.180 all the things that, and yet it didn't take, or at least it didn't take insufficient numbers.

02:48:19.280 So would you advise them to do something different for the next campaign or stay the course because people will come round?

02:48:28.940 Yeah, well, I mean, these are good questions.

02:48:31.840 There's an ongoing debate inside the conservative camp throughout this campaign.

02:48:36.200 Was it do we stick with the message that's been working for us, you know, cost of living, cost of tomatoes, cost of bread, cost of rent, availability of houses, you know, all these issues that propelled, you know, that propelled the conservatives into a strong lead over the liberals.

02:48:53.600 and you know as we as we watch the liberals implode after you know finally after nine years of Trudeau

02:48:58.640 um so do we stick with that because it works or do we jump on the new bandwagon which is oh my

02:49:05.920 goodness Donald Trump and who's going to protect us from the big orange menace right um there it 0.70

02:49:11.600 was genuine debate and what we saw in the end was something of a hybrid uh for the first couple

02:49:18.320 weeks, Mr. Poliev stuck to his original script. He eventually started to hybridize his message.

02:49:24.880 He didn't let go of the cost of living stuff, but he started to talk about defending Canada

02:49:29.020 against aggression from the South. And he kind of stuck with that hybrid right through the end.

02:49:34.380 I mean, some people are going to argue in the end that he didn't pivot enough,

02:49:38.920 that he should have gone full on against Trump. Others are going to say you watered down your

02:49:42.720 message. You should have stuck with the stuff that really works for you. In the end, probably

02:49:47.720 what happened here it's a little early and there's going to be a whole bunch of tea leaves to read

02:49:51.640 over several months but what probably happened here is that we didn't have one ballot question

02:49:57.400 uh supplanting uh the original ballot question we ended up with two ballot questions for some people

02:50:03.640 it was still a cost of living election right through the end and for other people it was oh

02:50:07.960 my goodness donald trump and who's going to protect us right and on one of those questions

02:50:13.640 the Liberals had a big advantage over the Conservatives. On the other one, the Conservatives

02:50:21.760 had a big advantage over the Liberals. It's a question of the relative weight of those two

02:50:27.400 ballot questions. Which one of those two issues motivated what proportion of the public?

02:50:33.800 So some of this is really just kind of act of God, force majeure, came out of, you know,

02:50:39.860 came at you sideways and, you know, the best laid plans can't really prepare you for everything.

02:50:45.760 Okay. Sorry, we'll come back to Baron, but I want to check in with Jared Yager, our

02:50:50.860 BC Bureau chief. He is coming to us from Vancouver or Surrey. Jared, are you outside of

02:51:01.600 J.B. Singh's headquarters there? No, I'm actually in North Burnaby right now at a campaign event

02:51:07.940 for Mauro Francis of the Conservative Party.

02:51:11.520 So when I got kicked out of the NDP event,

02:51:14.420 they made it pretty clear that they didn't want me

02:51:16.420 anywhere on the premises.

02:51:18.860 So we should make clear here.

02:51:21.160 The Carney campaign started off

02:51:23.040 during its leadership campaign

02:51:24.660 by refusing admittance to Western Standard Reporters.

02:51:28.060 They got some bad press on that,

02:51:29.560 and they reversed course.

02:51:30.840 And actually, Mark Carney would take questions

02:51:32.720 from Western Standard Reporters.

02:51:34.760 They were tough, but we tried to keep them fair

02:51:36.820 and reasonable, and so

02:51:39.400 good on Carney for that, but

02:51:40.640 Jameet Singh is a bit of a

02:51:43.260 princess, it seems, and

02:51:45.240 they refused

02:51:47.340 to send us news releases, they wouldn't tell us where

02:51:49.200 events were, and if we got to events,

02:51:51.160 they'd toss us, so

02:51:53.000 yeah, you were, Jameet Singh

02:51:55.040 had you escorted out of his

02:51:57.360 campaign headquarters, I guess.

02:51:59.740 Yep, and they

02:52:01.300 said it was because I didn't have media accreditation,

02:52:03.940 and then I pointed out to

02:52:05.360 them that I tried to get in touch with them numerous times throughout the campaign and never

02:52:10.040 got a response and then they admitted yes it's because Jagmeet Singh doesn't want to engage

02:52:15.520 with the western standard and it's only the NDP that I've had this problem with you know I've

02:52:20.940 covered events during this campaign the conservatives the liberals and even during the provincial

02:52:27.600 election the bc NDP they were fine the bc greens the bc conservative it's only the federal NDP

02:52:35.060 where i've had the the ndp uh leader in um uh saskatchewan takes our questions uh even now

02:52:42.620 the alberta ndp leader takes our questions uh jegme is just a bit uh made of more sensitive

02:52:49.140 stuff i guess uh well what was the mood for the brief time you're in there uh the ndp are facing

02:52:56.100 very possibly their worst election in the history of that party you'd have to go back to maybe early

02:53:01.700 CCCF right now. They're not declared elected in a single riding in Canada. Nada. One.

02:53:12.260 From the New Democrats you were talking to when they weren't trying to escort you out,

02:53:18.340 what kind of vibe were you getting from them? I mean, I was there pretty early,

02:53:22.980 so there weren't too many people there yet. But the ones who I saw, they had smiles on their faces.

02:53:26.900 So I think they were optimistic. And there's some writings here in BC that I think the NDP might pick up, but not nearly as many as they did last time, for sure.

02:53:38.360 Yaroslav, I want to come to you on this question. We can talk in a second about the implication of the NDP collapse for the Liberals and the Conservatives.

02:53:48.000 And there's a there's a ton there, obviously. But the NDP, I think it's safe to say that one call I'll make confidently right now is that they will not achieve official party status.

02:53:59.800 They're going to get annihilated. I'm hesitant to put a floor on it yet because there's still some of their core constituencies like Jaymeet Singh's own writing in Burnaby that have not yet reported.

02:54:12.220 but that floor uh is looking like a basement right now yeah you got it look uh 12 seats is

02:54:21.900 a magic number to be uh to be officially accredited as a party as in the house of commons and you're

02:54:27.660 right uh the way things are tracking for the nbp right now it does not look like they will be a

02:54:31.840 recognized party in the house of commons this means a couple things first of all pretty brutal

02:54:36.160 times uh ahead for the nbp they're basically going to have to live off the charity of their

02:54:40.660 provincial parties just to, you know, pay the rent, keep the lights on, keep a little bit of

02:54:45.260 core staff at party headquarters. So it's not going to be pretty for them. It's kind of like

02:54:49.300 back in 1993 when the progressive conservatives were wiped out of the House of Commons. They

02:54:55.300 basically had to live off the charity of their senators to sort of share some of their budgets

02:55:01.480 to try to cobble together a little bit of a pool for head office. So that's, you know, that's the

02:55:06.400 internal politics consequence of it. So it's going to be tough for them to rebound when that

02:55:10.300 happened um electorally ultimately frankly you know a long-term collapse of the ndp is not great

02:55:17.040 for the conservatives because like the last time that we saw an election where the both the liberals

02:55:23.420 and the conservatives were coming in on ebay like around 40 or more in the polls was something like

02:55:30.100 1930 so um the presence of that junior third party um gobbling up a bunch of center-left votes

02:55:40.140 tends to help conservatives get elected.

02:55:42.640 You know, there are a whole bunch of writings

02:55:44.260 where the conservatives get elected on the splits.

02:55:47.180 You eliminate them,

02:55:48.340 and it provides a whole bunch more ballast

02:55:50.740 for the liberals,

02:55:51.740 which means it's tougher long-term for the blue team.

02:56:00.060 Noisy word.

02:56:00.820 Here it is.

02:56:02.920 I thought there was a raccoon in the garbage can.

02:56:05.880 Oh, man.

02:56:08.200 Sorry, man.

02:56:08.920 I think no matter what, even if he wins his seat,

02:56:13.840 Jaymeet Singh is done tonight.

02:56:16.380 I don't think there's any scenario where this guy stays on.

02:56:21.820 You know, speculation will begin quickly about who's to replace him.

02:56:25.580 But what path forward?

02:56:28.920 How the hell did Mark Carney consolidate the NDP's vote

02:56:33.860 when he is perceived, at least, to be a more centrist than Justin Trudeau.

02:56:42.100 He moves right, at least in appearance, and maybe not in substance,

02:56:46.780 but he moves right perceptually, and the left follows him.

02:56:51.960 How the hell did he do that? That's magic.

02:56:54.460 It's one of the big mysteries of this campaign.

02:56:56.540 And frankly, my theory on it is this,

02:57:00.200 that they successfully spooked the public into thinking that this was an existential election.

02:57:07.060 The future of Canada hinges on the outcome of this election. So is your, you, the people of Canada,

02:57:13.760 the poor peasants of Canada, is your champion going to be this guy or this guy? Because we know

02:57:19.620 it's only going to be one of these two that's going to be prime minister. So they successfully

02:57:23.700 spooked the public into thinking, oh my God, Canada's in jeopardy unless we get this globalist

02:57:31.680 banker to represent us and face off against Donald Trump. And that really seemed to have spooked a

02:57:37.160 whole bunch of NDP voters who ironically, counterintuitively fled the left-wing party and

02:57:44.920 moved to the left center, left center, center, left somewhere party. It's really ironic. I think

02:57:53.000 I think that's the explanation.

02:57:55.000 Well, I think the existence of Canada as we know it was on the ballot,

02:57:59.000 just not in the way that the Liberals are describing it right now.

02:58:03.000 Nigel, do you have anything?

02:58:07.000 No, it's the whole business of what do you tell the Conservative Party to do next.

02:58:12.000 But I guess there will be time enough for that discussion.

02:58:16.000 Do you think that they're actually going to lose?

02:58:19.000 lose like i just got the numbers here that in the in the last election they can the conservatives

02:58:24.520 have 5.7 million votes yeah um the liberals had a whole 5.5 obviously the liberals are going to

02:58:32.680 pick up the the ndp slack do you think that the the conservatives are going to come out a little

02:58:39.240 ahead on this on the they're going to pick up votes that just will translate to seats well

02:58:45.880 Well, right now, the way it's tracking, it doesn't look as though the Conservatives are going to win the popular vote as they did the last two times.

02:58:55.120 Last election, 2021, the Conservatives won the popular vote narrowly, but they won the popular vote.

02:59:00.220 Same thing in 2019, when Andrew Scheer was leader, they won the popular vote.

02:59:05.200 Not sure we're tracking in that direction this time, but it's still pretty outstanding.

02:59:11.540 in, you know, to have a conservative party finish an election at 40% in the polls, like

02:59:19.420 normally conservatives are popping champagne corks and celebrating because they've just

02:59:24.160 won a majority government if they pulled off 40% of the vote.

02:59:27.600 It's pretty astounding to see this kind of a, by any normal standard, successful, successful

02:59:35.180 outcome and still not form government.

02:59:37.940 That's going to be the really frustrating thing.

02:59:39.720 Yeah. What is it about the liberals and what is it about the conservatives? Because we know what it is with the conservatives. They're very strong on traditional values. What's a liberal voter think like?

02:59:57.380 the the ethos of the liberal vote i don't know maybe not it's uh like i'm wondering with some

03:00:05.840 of the people that i've met around here who are tell me they're voting liberal they don't think

03:00:10.800 about much yeah yeah nigel there seems to be a pretty significant difference in you know in the

03:00:19.460 generational spread in this election and with no disrespect to the boomers uh the baby boomers

03:00:26.000 cut liberal in this election at least that's what that's what all the polling you know before today

03:00:30.520 was telling us in the last in the last week or so the baby boom generation which normally is 1.00

03:00:36.520 pretty solidly conservative they went liberal under mark carney why you know we can we can

03:00:43.100 analyze that we can speculate we don't have the data yet but i'm speculating it's because this

03:00:48.220 is a generation that's already built up its assets they've already built up their nest eggs 0.65

03:00:51.880 They're invested in the market, whether it's their pension fund or their RRSP or their tax-free savings accounts or whatever it is, it's tied in the markets.

03:01:00.200 And they see this kind of market volatility, a trillion dollars of wealth globally being wiped out because Donald Trump sneezed and whatever.

03:01:07.760 So they're freaked out.

03:01:09.260 They want to protect their assets.

03:01:11.500 They want a banker type to try to neutralize this chaos that they're seeing in the markets.

03:01:18.060 This banker type is likely to bring in a home equity tax.

03:01:21.880 Yeah, I mean, that's that's you being that's you being rational, Nigel.

03:01:26.880 But this is fear, right?

03:01:30.880 This is fear. But the millennials, the millennials, the people who have not yet bought a home, the people who want to get married, but are freaked out thinking I can't afford to.

03:01:39.880 The people who want to have a first kid and think, can we afford to do this?

03:01:43.880 this they have tacked conservative like that that demographic the millennials the gen zedders

03:01:49.880 disproportionately are voting conservative so it would appear in the according to the polls leading

03:01:54.280 up to today it's a really interesting phenomenon normally you get old people voting voting 0.77

03:01:59.560 conservative and you have the you know the young people uh you know voting ndp and everything seems

03:02:05.560 to be topsy-turvy like mr paulie have really struck a nerve with young canadians worried about the

03:02:10.760 future of this country and worried about their own well-being and worried about having a standard of

03:02:14.920 living that's less than than what their parents enjoyed and so those young canadians are voting

03:02:20.760 blue and the older canadians are kind of out of fear again to your earlier point you know

03:02:29.160 existential fear of canada may not be the right fear uh but they're they're voting for the banker

03:02:35.400 guy to give them some stability so the conservatives are the part of the future as these young people

03:02:41.000 move up through the true the demographic pipeline so uh all right well uh uh you know slav uh thank

03:02:48.440 you very much uh i really really appreciate it um uh yeah uh thank you very much for your time

03:02:57.400 i've i just got a text from my dad hey dad uh saying ctv has just called it as a liberal

03:03:04.120 minority government so not a majority uh minority um i actually don't that calling it a minority

03:03:12.760 is a tougher call right now because we don't know what the end the ndp we know it's gonna be terrible

03:03:18.600 but yeah like it's it'd be a minority government but the third party would be so damn small so

03:03:24.040 it's gonna rely on the block um watch it carney is gonna try and bring the conservatives in

03:03:30.280 and coalition. I know it's my craziest thing I've

03:03:32.280 said. It won't be the

03:03:34.180 craziest thing I say tonight.

03:03:36.220 But watch it. He's going to declare

03:03:38.020 he wants a national unity government.

03:03:40.760 And they're going

03:03:42.260 to try and bring the conservatives in.

03:03:44.040 And the conservatives would be mad.

03:03:46.860 Mad to take it.

03:03:48.440 New reform party.

03:03:50.680 No, no. That was the West

03:03:52.180 wants in. This time

03:03:54.140 it's going to be the West wants out.

03:03:56.140 We've wasted enough time.

03:03:57.100 Yeah, I think we've spent enough time

03:03:59.020 Okay, back in a good time.

03:04:01.960 Okay, maybe I have got, I see Ted Morton in the stream,

03:04:06.680 but we're not scheduled for Ted for quite some time.

03:04:09.060 Does this mean we get extra Ted Talk?

03:04:11.380 Give him a try, Ted Talk.

03:04:13.200 Do we get some Ted Talk?

03:04:14.200 Okay, yes?

03:04:16.140 I don't think he said no.

03:04:17.440 That's a no.

03:04:18.100 Okay, no Ted Talk for now.

03:04:20.620 Ted's just enjoying watching for now, I guess.

03:04:23.260 Let's go, okay, let's check in quickly with Jared.

03:04:27.280 let jared get back to work and then we're going to go to jen hodgson in ottawa

03:04:34.080 all right uh what do you see are you safe have you been who's that guy is staring

03:04:38.640 in our camera right behind you who's that guy oh just an attendee uh it's quite packed down

03:04:44.400 there at the pub yeah at the pub that the ndb headquarters is the pub this is conservative

03:04:51.120 no no this is uh oh okay oh yeah up in northern bernambi yeah yeah okay okay uh i mean i okay so

03:05:00.080 the cdc site is updating less fast than the uh ctv site elections canada's down yeah i'll watch

03:05:06.480 it down for a while you have one job guys one day one day your website really really just needs to

03:05:14.080 work for one day every roughly four years and you couldn't do it uh do we know how james doing in

03:05:20.160 his writing in i don't think there's any results no results nothing from the lower main line yet

03:05:27.680 i think that's on if he keeps his writing i think he's gone gone there's a honestly i think he's

03:05:31.840 done too yeah sir what's that i heard i think he's done you know he was pulling third for

03:05:37.760 quite a while so do you guys we've got a couple lower main line brothers but they're like lower

03:05:43.760 yeah do you guys think that he just doesn't care like he was like i got my pension like he actually

03:05:51.120 wants to lose his seat so he has resigned himself to losing it like this last 10 days or even since

03:05:56.400 the debate it's just now let's run the clock and do what damage i can on the way out right i mean

03:06:01.920 that was not a debate performance trying to win support that was a debate before i was trying to

03:06:05.280 drag somebody else down yeah that's not somebody trying to win his seat that's that's somebody

03:06:08.960 is giving up like do you think he just wants because he doesn't want to sit there he's got

03:06:13.760 his pension oh yeah you don't want to win it yeah is he is is he in a three running no he's

03:06:20.400 no burnaby okay okay that's what i'm talking about he'll end up in the corner of a law office

03:06:25.680 somewhere and you can definitely be wealthy drive his macerati and look at his rolex oh yeah he'll

03:06:32.960 be fine it was nice kid uh peter julian long time ndp mp uh losing although not too many in yet

03:06:42.400 pardon go back to central central jay meet singh yeah okay so there's only three polls reporting

03:06:51.040 still pretty early but uh jay beat singh in second uh no tied for second and third place

03:06:58.240 with the conservative uh but still way too early to tell from those numbers that's that's not very

03:07:03.440 reliable he was pulling third for the last well that's based on aggregators they're they're not

03:07:08.480 pulling in the actual running the ndp itself probably has internal polls that would be much

03:07:12.720 more accurate to the right working liberal on something than they were now when we're talking

03:07:17.680 about polling and rotting we're talking projections and it's i mean they're they're normally in the

03:07:23.280 right neighborhood but they're not very accurate but you know you've lost yeah you know you have

03:07:28.640 lost when you come in behind the guy who always used to be third there's no second conservative

03:07:36.080 that is the judgment on the ndp i don't know how long do you think how does the party come back

03:07:42.400 from that uh another cycle or two they'll be yeah they don't go away there's a natural place for the

03:07:49.360 ndp like so they're they'll be back they'll be back but they're going to go through a rebound

03:07:56.880 i mean they're going in may 1st here in alberta to decide what they look like as a provincial

03:08:02.560 versus federal party at their convention that they're very hush hush about because they don't

03:08:07.040 want to draw attention to their potential divorce with their um federal partner but so we will see

03:08:15.440 that, but then they'll have to rebuild of what does a federal, I mean, Trudeau basically became

03:08:20.480 a communist himself. So now that if you have Kearney, there's probably more opportunity to

03:08:25.460 Corey's point in the next two election cycles to truly take up the socialist part of the spectrum.

03:08:32.500 I want to actually go to the CTVs right now. I'm going to bring this in. This is Carlton.

03:08:40.560 Minority. Yeah, liberal minority. So this is the writing of Carlton, Pierre Polyev's writing. Still fairly, only two, 266 polls in, but roughly just a little over a thousand votes counted. Liberals are leading in Polyev's writing. I mean, if you're going to be the leader of a party that wants to reduce the size in government, it's not good to have a lot of bureaucrats living in your writing.

03:09:09.320 Right.

03:09:10.000 But, I mean, he has held this riding since the unification of the Conservative Party's first election, 2004.

03:09:15.600 He took it from a Liberal Cabinet minister.

03:09:17.580 David Pratt.

03:09:18.380 David Pratt.

03:09:19.180 Defense minister.

03:09:19.940 Yeah.

03:09:20.260 It's a fairly traditionally conservative riding.

03:09:24.200 Ottawa might have a lot of bureaucrats, but not on the outside, especially as you push towards the Ottawa Valley.

03:09:29.400 It starts to get actually pretty conservative.

03:09:31.840 But Ottawa's growing.

03:09:33.460 The government has ballooned massively.

03:09:35.920 So I still expect he's going to win tonight.

03:09:38.400 but it's not a good start well you know when when that story first broke i thought that that was

03:09:45.920 just the mainstream media trying to create a story out of out of uh rumors and very little else but

03:09:52.480 it does seem there was some there was some merit in their argument something to it yeah yeah as

03:09:57.840 you say i think it went in the end but yeah i'm not gonna bat an eye on two out of 266 polls yeah

03:10:03.840 yeah all right uh anything else for me jared uh before we let you go

03:10:10.480 we have some calgary results

03:10:15.280 jared anything before we let you go nope that's it for now okay uh we're gonna go uh to uh

03:10:22.640 welfare wolf blitzer here welfare will uh for some uh some updates

03:10:28.320 okay i'm uh just looking at some calgary numbers we've got some calgary numbers coming in

03:10:34.800 so uh calgary mcknight uh george to hall still pretty early only six and 196 polls but uh he's

03:10:40.880 hanging in with about 48 percent uh calgary confederation which is the one that kent had

03:10:47.120 mentioned uh cory hogan i'm kind of surprised because this is my writing i've never heard this

03:10:52.320 guy did you vote i did vote i'm not going to say who i voted for but i did vote but uh jeremy

03:11:00.000 nixon um provincial stalwart under uh ed stomach or not at stomach well i guess he was no he just

03:11:08.400 lost in his last election yeah but he's uh he's down and let's see we got one more calgary center

03:11:16.880 uh lindsay do you know her lindsay let's just call her lindsay

03:11:28.000 um edmonton's looking i'm kind of surprised here at edmonton because edmonton's looking

03:11:32.000 fairly solidly blue edmonton griesbach uh like you're saying uh edmonton center surprise surprise

03:11:39.680 uh this is kind of a big surprise heather mcpherson well maybe not she's been in before

03:11:45.760 You think she's going to win? 0.96

03:11:46.660 Yeah.

03:11:47.000 I mean, she's pretty close right now, but there's only 13 of 217.

03:11:49.840 He's not leading.

03:11:50.680 I think the only one that would would be Blake up in Griesbach to unseat them.

03:11:54.620 I think the one that everybody was looking at, though, was Amarjeet Sohee.

03:11:59.100 How many calls?

03:12:00.900 This doesn't – I mean, we're only five of 159.

03:12:04.660 He's in second, but he's trailing pretty much.

03:12:07.500 Amarjeet Sohee is –

03:12:09.560 Former mayor of Edmonton or the current mayor of Edmonton who's running.

03:12:13.780 Yeah.

03:12:14.040 So he will still have a job after tonight.

03:12:16.600 Well, this is odd if...

03:12:18.460 He will until October, which is a shame for democracy.

03:12:20.420 Yeah.

03:12:20.840 I win for democracy, yeah.

03:12:23.200 Depending on how you look.

03:12:24.140 Yeah.

03:12:24.500 Okay, so we're looking at Alberta here. 0.61

03:12:28.120 It is a bit odd.

03:12:29.000 I mean, it's still...

03:12:30.720 The Edmonton and Calgary numbers are still up for grabs.

03:12:33.200 Everything outside of that, painted blue.

03:12:36.620 That's no surprise.

03:12:37.840 Of course, yeah.

03:12:38.940 Three hoop...

03:12:39.880 Oh, no.

03:12:40.460 Now we're down to only two Liberals.

03:12:42.840 Two Liberals.

03:12:43.640 Okay.

03:12:44.040 Well, yeah, it's looking pretty good for the Conservatives in Edmonton.

03:12:47.300 It would be odd for there to be more leftist MPs in Edmonton than in Calgary, though.

03:12:52.220 That doesn't make a lot of sense.

03:12:54.740 I mean, I haven't lived in Calgary for 12 years now, but I did live here for about eight.

03:13:02.860 And the difference, I think, for when we're looking at Edmonton and Calgary is that Edmonton is very blanket Conservatives.

03:13:09.120 So there's not an area that doesn't have Conservatives in the court.

03:13:12.580 And so why a lot of them, even you remember door knocking, you know, years ago, where you'd have a federal NDP or a federal or a provincial, sorry, NDP or liberal, but you'd have them go conservative federally.

03:13:26.060 And again, I think that's just the way that kind of the cookie crumbles with larger electoral districts that you saw in Edmonton with those no true pockets, like with the exception of Edmonton Strathcona.

03:13:40.280 But even then, in the 90s, it was a conservative riding.

03:13:44.140 I want to check in with, have we still got Chris Oldcorn here?

03:13:47.820 He's been waiting patiently here.

03:13:49.460 Where is Chris?

03:13:50.260 We got Coldcorn.

03:13:51.360 Okay, let's bring in Coldcorn.

03:13:52.640 um i want to talk about uh oh where's the green candidate so yeah do we have uh

03:14:00.160 jonathan dennis is on jonathan dennis is on okay you know what we're gonna talk to both

03:14:04.340 jonathan dennis and cold corn because uh one is a former saskatchewanian who's an alberton

03:14:11.360 and the other is a former ontarian who became a saskatchewanian um so we're gonna talk about

03:14:17.260 saskatchewan we just haven't yeah you guys are just so awesome in your voting that you're just

03:14:21.620 not interesting you're the new alberta uh where it's just not that interesting it didn't always

03:14:27.260 be it wasn't always like that derek it wasn't always like that i'm aware okay so right now

03:14:32.040 the conservatives are leading or elected in every single riding in saskatchewan with the exception

03:14:37.580 of desnethy missinipi churchill river that must be a new name on that riding they keep on making

03:14:46.040 the names weirder um let's just call it churchill river because that's what everybody calls it

03:14:50.460 because they can't pronounce the other words.

03:14:52.480 Yeah, yeah.

03:14:53.340 Okay, that's an agreed policy for tonight.

03:14:56.340 Okay, so for that riding, I mean, 48 of 88 polls.

03:15:00.380 Good for Liberals, but it's still pretty low.

03:15:02.360 What's actually interesting there,

03:15:03.480 Buckley Belanger is a longtime political figure in Saskatchewan.

03:15:06.640 He was elected in 1995 as a Liberal, then went to the NDP.

03:15:11.020 He served with the NDP until a few years ago.

03:15:13.420 That's the second time that he has run there.

03:15:15.440 I think he has quite a personal following.

03:15:17.680 I think he's probably carrying that more than the party grant.

03:15:22.000 Yeah, and Jim was a South Party MLA up until the fall election when he lost the seat there.

03:15:28.760 So, Saskatchewan, there's really no surprises.

03:15:32.460 Let's take a look at the more urban ridings.

03:15:36.460 We've got Regina.

03:15:37.600 That's where I grew up with, Derek, right?

03:15:39.140 You're resuming it right at my old home.

03:15:41.320 Yeah, we're going to win that riding.

03:15:43.780 That's my riding.

03:15:45.640 Okay, good.

03:15:46.100 Okay, so yeah, Regina was up. So that was, what's his nuts? The liberal. Ralph Goodell was a very,

03:16:02.260 very long time liberal who held that. He held it until 2019. And then Michael Cram, who I grew up

03:16:12.820 with you took him out and he's still there yeah so uh he's in the lead still uh still quite a few

03:16:19.380 polls to come in uh are any of are any of these regina or saskatoon writings looking interesting

03:16:27.380 to you guys could the liberals pick any up not university i thought saskatoon university i

03:16:32.340 thought liberals were only said to be there but they're close close there it's close um the the

03:16:40.340 The more interesting one is the Regina Wiscana due to the fact that Jeff Walters is very well known.

03:16:47.180 And him and Cram have actually been as close as three votes apart at one point.

03:16:51.940 They were 44.1% to 44% about 10 minutes ago.

03:16:56.340 And that one's flipping around, but it does look like it's going to stay with Cram.

03:17:01.660 But all the big names in Saskatchewan have held their seats.

03:17:04.660 Andrew Scheer, Kelly Block, Kathy Wagenthal, all the big ones have firmly won their seats.

03:17:10.340 We're going to bring in another Saskatchewan boy, John Thompson, Western Standard columnist extraordinaire.

03:17:18.040 Thank you for joining us, John.

03:17:19.840 Yeah, my pleasure. Thanks for having me on.

03:17:22.120 All right. Well, right now, we're talking Saskatchewan, which has become a very uninteresting political place in a good way, I think.

03:17:30.000 um right now all the rural ridings except for churchill river uh plus uh are trending conservative

03:17:39.520 uh or have been called hard conservative yeah um so that one in the far north um i mean that's a

03:17:46.420 that's a different kind of beast as a far north riding it's huge it's bigger than

03:17:51.540 many countries in the world it might be part of its own soon um then we've got uh three saskatoon

03:17:58.620 and two Regina urban seats, all leaning conservative, but not yet called.

03:18:05.700 Your thoughts, the conservative is going to take all of Regina and Saskatoon,

03:18:09.800 and your thoughts on Churchill River, trending liberal, at least at this moment.

03:18:15.280 Yeah, I guess I think with Churchill River, that's probably a shoe-in for the liberals at this point.

03:18:21.240 Like it was previously mentioned, you know, Bucky Belanger is super popular up there,

03:18:26.340 and he is carrying that win based on his reputation, I think, more than the party brand.

03:18:32.780 And Jeffrey Walters, same thing, a super well-known individual here in Saskatchewan

03:18:37.420 who, you know, did yeoman service for the Saskia Liberal Party before it changed names.

03:18:43.960 And I wouldn't be surprised to see him carry that riding as well.

03:18:48.120 And I think, you know, it'll be interesting to see what Mark Carney and the government does

03:18:53.300 with those two ridings if they get them both.

03:18:56.340 in terms of allocating cabinet positions to one of the two

03:19:00.780 and having more representation in Saskatchewan

03:19:03.800 to offset what's likely going to be a surge in, you know,

03:19:08.420 independence movements.

03:19:12.600 So I want to note here,

03:19:15.120 there are still zero New Democrats declared elected in all of Canada,

03:19:20.740 anywhere.

03:19:21.620 They are leading in 10 constituencies.

03:19:24.580 um and yeah we're starting to get more reliable numbers at this point they're leading in 10 but

03:19:30.620 they have not been declared elected in a single constituency uh so this is embarrassing for the

03:19:38.140 ndp uh embarrassing is losing a few seats uh like i don't know i don't know what how to describe

03:19:46.840 losing nearly all of your seats when you've been in a de facto coalition government well the one

03:19:53.400 thing i would add to that is traditionally in canada the junior partner in a coalition loses

03:19:59.000 their identity but there's a caveat here as much as we don't like the ndp on this podcast me included

03:20:04.760 i will say that the last two conservative majorities 1988 there were 43 ndp seats 2011

03:20:11.080 103 ndp seats it would seem that as much as we don't like them that without them we don't form

03:20:19.080 a majority government as a conservative yeah uh you know i want the i i i need one of you three

03:20:27.720 can jump in on this um we also maybe bring in the former premier of this lovely oh my god we're

03:20:35.560 talking about saskatchewan and we've got sitting in the green room uh former saskatchewan premier

03:20:41.720 brad wall and we have not uh we're just kind of uh talking over him uh let's make brad a big head

03:20:49.080 big head for brad uh not just one of the little ones here talk about a successful conservative

03:20:53.160 he's right here all right uh former premier uh wall thank you very much for joining us

03:20:59.640 uh we're we're just going through saskatchewan right now and uh it's looking pretty solid uh

03:21:07.560 your initial reactions on it looks like it's all going conservative except for uh churchill river

03:21:12.360 in the far north yeah i think but three belanges leading liberals in that that was uh that was my

03:21:18.840 last bit of information uh of course i said the legislature would probably he was a i think he

03:21:23.720 first ran mla and then uh former premier romano got him to cross the floor and he became part of

03:21:29.240 that uh 2000 or that 1990 government that's when i was first elected anyway so yeah west was for a

03:21:38.840 while but it is that was with this barrier maybe one or two poles and i think it's okay now

03:21:44.280 so uh pretty interesting evening i heard you got what you guys were talking about

03:21:47.720 uh with respect to the ndt and what a remarkable collapse uh and pretty much entirely self-inflicted

03:21:56.040 uh i'm gonna ask maybe a bigger picture question across the west um the uh primarily the east

03:22:05.640 has doubled down on, I guess, the last decade of Liberal rule.

03:22:12.640 They've voted for more of this, backed in large measure by NDP voters

03:22:17.880 flocking to the Liberals.

03:22:20.240 But the East has doubled down here.

03:22:24.400 Preston Manning wrote a piece in the Globe and Mail saying that, you know,

03:22:28.300 if Canada votes, a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Western secession.

03:22:35.640 I know you're the former premier of Saskatchewan. I think few people have a better read on the situation than you. I'm in Alberta and my idea of Saskatchewan mostly comes from Chris on a daily basis here. But what's your sense of how are people in Saskatchewan or the Prairie West, maybe more broadly, going to react to this tomorrow morning?

03:22:58.060 Well, it really depends what the Kearney minority government, although if you take a look at the board now, I've been down here in your in your green room, by the way, there are no 148.

03:23:08.920 I want to point that out. But I, I was watching the board just before I came down here. And it's, it was tightening at the time, I would say, and you have, you put the block in the and the conservatives together, you get a, you get a

03:23:26.600 but the answer to your question i think is this it really depends what if it's carney if it's a

03:23:37.400 carney minority government minority parliament what he does if he does what he said he was going

03:23:43.160 to do in the campaign uh and prior to the campaign uh where he's writing books and making public

03:23:49.640 comments uh that could answer your question about how intense western unrest unrest or

03:23:58.520 western alienation and i say that because you know he he talked a big game uh in the campaign about

03:24:06.840 canada being an energy superpower when you dig down into the comments

03:24:12.840 fossil fuels because the rest of the liberal policies they were proposing

03:24:17.400 where things like C-69 stays, the ban stays, the emission cap stays, the ban on fossil fuels

03:24:25.960 starting with a quota next year and then completely in 2035, that stays. The clean energy,

03:24:33.140 the clean electricity regulations probably stay. These will be, these will be, and they are

03:24:41.940 antithetical to the Western economy, though it really will depend on what a minority Kearney

03:24:49.860 government does. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith met with Kearney soon before calling the election,

03:24:58.100 and she presented him with a list of, I think it was nine conditions or demands,

03:25:05.460 said if they're not fulfilled, Canada will face an unprecedented unity crisis. Some in the press,

03:25:11.940 said that was a threat. You could also interpret it as a warning, I think, that maybe you want to

03:25:20.900 do some of these things. But, you know, her list of demands actually struck me as pretty low-hanging

03:25:26.560 fruit. We're not talking anymore at all about structural reform to the Federation. We're not

03:25:31.480 talking, I'm sitting beside a senator-elect right now. She's been waiting a lot longer. Yeah, who is

03:25:36.920 not sitting in the senate um i mean it's a pretty low ass that you know the people we elect to go to

03:25:42.520 the senate go to the senate instead they elect i don't know i don't want to get sued i'm just

03:25:46.760 gonna say real weirdos real weirdos you're not gonna get sued for that derek yeah i'm not not

03:25:53.080 that's because i'm using the term weirdos i'm not saying what i really think uh but um you know

03:25:58.600 we're not talking about uh you know reforming the senate so that you know province like alberta with

03:26:04.280 twice the population of all four Atlantic provinces, which has just barely more than half the senators

03:26:10.040 of just Nova Scotia or just New Brunswick. We're not talking about fixing that. We're not talking

03:26:15.900 about fixing equalization. We're not talking about big structural change anymore. These are pretty

03:26:21.960 low-hanging fruit asks from Premier Smith. I don't know. Do you take it as more of a threat

03:26:28.980 or more as a warning what she said? I think the Premier was doing her job. She was making 0.95

03:26:33.060 what she needed from the whoever the next government of canada was i think she was

03:26:39.220 doing her job when she was engaged with the uh with her contacts uh and and others in the united

03:26:45.860 states uh during and since the inauguration so um those structural things weren't on the list

03:26:55.220 of demands because they are not possible this is the problem we have what we're witnessing tonight

03:27:03.060 the challenge of this sort of this federation where the feet of the federal government in the

03:27:09.360 federation is de facto a unicum rep by the house of commons because the senate sorry if you get

03:27:17.280 there sorry the senate is is not a thing uh i know how you feel about it i called you when i was

03:27:22.660 running currently constituted brad didn't you pass a motion when you were premier to abolish

03:27:28.720 the Senate? We did. I thought so. He did. That's why I said I know how he feels.

03:27:34.580 I've always thought that a functional federation requires a functional upper house to function.

03:27:41.160 But I mean, if the two options are the status quo feudal Canadian Laurentian Senate versus no

03:27:47.240 Senate, of course, no Senate is better. Under the current state, I think we can all agree it

03:27:50.800 doesn't operate in the way it's intended. I hope we don't get distracted by the Senate

03:27:55.320 because my point is this it can change it requires a constitutional amendment that's never going to

03:28:03.800 happen and the constitutional amendment is is another notional rep by pop process that needs

03:28:10.360 to be the queen's park or assembly and it happened so for western canadians who have a i would say a

03:28:18.600 disproportionate economic interest or a contribution for the country certainly that they do a political

03:28:23.640 influence what is the remedy get into the house of commons unless you just get lucky and get a

03:28:29.480 government like we hope to get tonight that might even have a cold you know that's amazing

03:28:35.720 that does not very happen very often in the country equalization can't change it's hardwired

03:28:40.600 in the institution so the remedy the reason that 35 according to angus reed in saskatchewan more

03:28:46.760 than alberta were expressing western alienation a few weeks ago 30 in alberta the reason that the

03:28:51.880 number is that high without a campaign without a leader without answers to tough questions about

03:28:57.400 how you know how how did this sort of end this western alienation without any of that 35 and 30.

03:29:06.360 uh what do you i mean uh it's look okay the networks have generally called uh liberal

03:29:13.320 minority government here uh probably but i mean leading and elected the liberals are 154.

03:29:20.600 the conservatives are 151 and the popular vote the conservatives are slightly behind but that's

03:29:26.000 because the west is reporting later actually do have a chance at winning the popular vote here

03:29:32.080 still uh i'm i'm not sure if there's been a case you know with the last two elections there's been

03:29:37.800 uh liberal minority governments with the conservatives win the popular vote i'd have

03:29:41.940 to look back and see if it's ever happened that someone has won a majority government without the

03:29:46.680 popular vote that's a trickier that's a trickier one to pull off uh but the the electoral math is

03:29:52.380 just completely out the window since there's a weakened block and a completely devastated

03:29:56.520 if not annihilated NDP um uh but I just got a text that I saw on the tablet here from my former

03:30:05.580 senior advisor who made the point I was talking to him earlier tonight about the very thing you're

03:30:11.560 talking about which is this call even a bit premature and his comment at the top was you

03:30:17.000 know they're in the game and they're in the score at the bottom right now and um so if i didn't know

03:30:22.900 it was 151 it was in the low 140s when i when i came down to jump on the show that's very close

03:30:30.040 and i don't still out there so um very very very interesting numbers if it's 154 151 right now

03:30:38.760 i'm guessing the block still in the low 20s and the adp are at 10. uh no the block is at like 17.

03:30:47.720 oh leading and elected in 25 elected at 17 but leading and elected 25 yeah

03:30:51.880 well elizabeth may won her writing our way did she yeah she's got 43 percent 0.99

03:30:59.960 sorry go ahead here's actually still behind in his writing so if he

03:31:03.640 that went over uh i guess that we're pretty there are only two polls reporting there so

03:31:07.800 So there's a long way to get that.

03:31:09.300 China has five polls, and Pierre's writing right now, 72 to 657.

03:31:15.060 Now, that's still very early days.

03:31:17.700 Yeah.

03:31:18.640 But if that flips, because it's in their numbers right now, that shows us a liberal lead.

03:31:23.960 It does show us a liberal lead.

03:31:25.420 Yeah.

03:31:26.280 So that's going to take the liberals down one and the conserves up one, and then all of a sudden we're basically tied now.

03:31:32.200 I mean, this is the closest election we've had in a long time.

03:31:34.960 Sorry.

03:31:35.800 Which Syria? 0.60

03:31:36.520 uh oh no i was looking at the burnaby is what you're looking at thank you sir can i ask you

03:31:42.200 this if um if we end up with something that close what are the alliance possibilities to form a

03:31:48.520 government that's a great great that's a real question uh launch it is going to have a lot to

03:31:55.880 say about that obviously and and then the conservatives would have a debate uh let's say

03:32:02.840 for instance the conservatives move into maybe it ends in a tie and so then it's an open question as

03:32:08.760 to make the best case to the governor general about forming a parliament that has the confidence of

03:32:13.560 the house but conservatives and the block uh because there's no way the ndp are going to

03:32:19.960 support the conservatives in the new parliament so the party would be the block and what would

03:32:24.760 they demand what would they want from from the conservatives what what concession no pipeline

03:32:32.920 might be better with the liberals then yeah if it if it is a tie number of seats uh the

03:32:37.080 constitutional convention is that the party that was the governing party before will have the first

03:32:42.680 chance of forming a government uh the last time i believe that happened was in nova scotia the late

03:32:47.560 1990s uh no it's not even if it's a tie you can govern from second or even theoretically third

03:32:53.160 place as long as you can format an independent could technically technically be the prime minister

03:32:57.720 that independent can hold the confidence of the house uh so technically it doesn't matter where

03:33:01.320 you're where you rank uh formation i think what he's saying is they would give it to the party in

03:33:06.920 power they would have the first chance yeah they perform it the chance goes to the party that won

03:33:13.080 the most yeah i i want to note here uh nine out of 200 polls reporting burnaby central so we're

03:33:20.200 we're getting a we're getting a sense of where it's going but still a long ways to go jay beat

03:33:24.280 singh is running in a fairly distant third place right now uh liberal bye it's a 38 conservative 0.76

03:33:31.420 james yan at uh about 35 jay beat singh is at 25 that is tough shit you know but like i said in 0.82

03:33:43.400 the chat that you know nikki acton is the bellwether for the ndp uh she's been an mp for 0.90

03:33:48.860 you know the northern manitoba for 15 years and she's trailing the liberal candidate by 0.64

03:33:55.540 1500 2000 votes at this point with 50 polls reporting so i mean if she can't hold her seat 0.96

03:34:02.680 no no chance that thing can no uh mr mr wall uh so i mean i'm not 100 sure the liberals actually

03:34:13.000 get a minority here i think they i lean that way but i i'm not 100 sure i'm not ready to

03:34:19.700 completely call it but i i think that's where things are leaning if that's where we're headed

03:34:24.500 though another uh liberal government primarily propped up by the east and then lower mainland bc

03:34:31.480 what does saskatchewan and alberta do are we are we uh let me just hunker down again or what do we

03:34:40.460 do? Well, really, as I said, off the top, it really depends on what the county government

03:34:44.760 does or doesn't do. I see moves on all those things I said off of the top of. Then we've

03:34:52.760 got some tough choices to make, because these things are really material to our ability

03:34:57.980 to make a living, to have a kind of economy that we want to have for the families here

03:35:04.980 saskatchewan of the families that live in the province of elsa so i it's a it's a hypothetical

03:35:11.540 question that begs an answer after we know better what government did to do all right yeah i think

03:35:20.740 what we could best hope for in a scenario with a liberal minority in order to hold the confidence

03:35:26.420 of the house is that like quebec gets you know he changes some of these policies because he's

03:35:30.980 talk from both sides of his mouth on, I want to be an energy sector. He gives us a corridor,

03:35:35.900 but that corridor goes to BC and doesn't go, and what is it, the port of Churchill up in Manitoba

03:35:43.940 that we're, but we're not getting a pipeline to Quebec. And I think that's the only way that he

03:35:48.440 can try and appease this Western alienation by getting our product to market, but while not

03:35:56.300 pissing off Quebec and the block through a pipeline out east. I think that's the only

03:36:03.260 scenario where he can actually dance between keeping the block on side and giving Alberta

03:36:09.500 and Saskatchewan and those prairies and not a reason to leave. I want to put a wilder

03:36:20.220 potential governing scenario

03:36:22.940 following up on Erica

03:36:24.320 than Nigel's question to you earlier,

03:36:26.400 Mr. Wall.

03:36:29.380 It's going to sound

03:36:30.380 crazier, but

03:36:31.800 the temperament of Carney

03:36:33.940 leads me to think that if he's got a minority

03:36:36.380 here, he might

03:36:38.040 try to form a so-called

03:36:40.380 national unity government

03:36:41.700 with the

03:36:44.360 Conservatives.

03:36:46.800 I mean,

03:36:47.840 I saw Jonathan Dennis

03:36:49.760 uh look like you bit a lemon when i said that uh i think it was easier than that comment okay

03:36:56.240 yeah uh but i i i wouldn't put it past them to try uh you know what are your thoughts

03:37:05.520 i i don't see it jonathan i'm probably eating the same way jonathan i don't i don't see him

03:37:11.680 doing that i don't know how the conservatives can do that if the if these policies are going

03:37:17.840 to remain unchanged if they're going to continue as as i expect to continue i just i don't see that

03:37:24.400 happening and then i'll go back to what i said earlier remember i mean that angus reed poll

03:37:30.000 was stark and to me and should be for everybody uh i think albertus a western uh western alienation

03:37:41.600 or more something more intense than that at 35 percent in fast and 30 percent in alberta

03:37:48.880 if a carney government proceeds as he says he'll proceed that number's going to grow uh and and

03:37:54.960 it will grow with the support of a more organized campaign with more organized leadership uh with

03:38:02.800 some of the objections you hear to uh to what the west really could do if it was on its own

03:38:08.720 and that number will that number will grow it will absolutely grow because if that is the highest

03:38:15.680 base i i can remember it in in contemporary history in our two provinces and again that's

03:38:22.080 without any organization that's without a spokesperson that's without a campaign

03:38:25.600 or spoke spokespeople or any kind of a process uh that maybe consults uh with albertans and

03:38:31.200 saskatchewan people but it'll depend on policy but it's not i don't think that none of this happens

03:38:37.360 if Carney has some sort of Damascus Road conversion about fossil fuels and modern age and mining.

03:38:47.440 If he doesn't, then I think all bets are off. There's one other thing that I would want to

03:38:52.000 point out from a Saskatchewan perspective, the hidden carbon tax that he wants to,

03:38:57.520 that he's going to basically continue with, even as he's at least temporarily paused the

03:39:02.480 the public-facing carbon tax, is potentially the greatest risk to our economy,

03:39:10.900 much greater than just a tax on fuel, a direct tax on basically a tax on fuel,

03:39:19.520 because of what it would do to our resource sector.

03:39:23.560 Think of the potash mines in Saskatchewan, uranium mines in Saskatchewan,

03:39:27.240 of the the large-scale industrial products that are going to pay this hidden carbon tax and it

03:39:33.240 sounds like i mean there's hints that his his view is that that can that can be ratcheted up uh and

03:39:40.440 that's another thing to add to the list of potential carny actions that will result

03:39:46.520 in some sort of reaction i believe in uh in the west

03:39:51.320 and one thing one thing uh further to brad's point the hidden carbon tax guess who pays that

03:40:00.040 it's all passed on to the consumer anyways so it's just a shell game it gets passed on to the

03:40:07.000 consumer and if it's high enough those jobs are at a lot absolutely so uh i'm gonna break in just

03:40:14.200 note here, in Jagmeet Singh's writing, the Conservatives have now taken the lead. Jagmeet

03:40:22.440 Singh's share of the vote continues to fall. Now it's still 15 out of 200 polls, a lot of room to

03:40:29.000 grow, but Singh is down to 22.5% in his own writing, trailing the Liberals at 37, the Conservatives at 39.

03:40:35.480 Yeah, Pierre Polyev actually falling behind a little in his riding. 59% for liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Polyev at 38.3. I think it's only 10 polls reporting there. So again, a lot of room to grow. But that's, there's a decent sampling size now looks like for a bit over 6000 votes. That gets to be a pretty good sampling. But again, yeah, it depends what part of the riding is it from.

03:41:05.180 i don't really know i haven't seen the breakdown yet um there's a really good rural portion to

03:41:10.300 that riding the thing is uh it said earlier quite correct there are a lot of civil servants in that

03:41:15.660 area so that is just by way of self-interest is going to be a bit of a drag it's a weird riding

03:41:21.900 it's got bureaucrats working in downtown ottawa and it's got farmers and gun nuts it's a weird weird

03:41:29.980 uh kind of l-shaped riding uh the closest that he's come he's held that riding since 2004

03:41:37.340 the closest that he's come before is in 2015 it was about 3 000 votes there

03:41:41.820 and that again was uh when uh when the uh when the ndp were a little we're a little bit lower

03:41:47.180 so it'll be interesting to see what happens here now you're also pulling up calgary

03:41:51.100 calgary actually has really only elected a couple of liberal mps in the last 50 years

03:41:56.300 uh we're seeing the northeast could flip but also the calgary confederation and calgary center uh

03:42:02.780 greg mclean has been a very good mp unfortunately in some of these cases the local candidate doesn't

03:42:07.660 really factor much into it more than plus or minus five points yeah yeah actually uh right now the

03:42:13.420 conservatives are leading in uh both of the northeast calgary writings uh one of those uh

03:42:19.340 calgary mcknight you know there was a big redraw there uh it's kind of funny because most of it's

03:42:23.660 former skyview yeah george george yeah so george jehal the incumbent is uh trailing that that

03:42:30.460 surprises me honestly yeah the conservatives are really looking around the nominations there that

03:42:36.300 that actually matters up in those in those writings um i uh of course i'm hoping for a

03:42:41.180 conservative victory there i was kind of expecting the other that you would have conservatives

03:42:45.980 leading in the center writings and maybe the northeast uh the opposite with the liberals

03:42:50.780 it uh looking looking down into calgary center for example uh there's a 300 vote margin between

03:42:56.780 greg mcclain to the liberal challenger in calgary confederation there's about a 500

03:43:00.700 vote margin you may very well see some recounts here yeah um that's a good point yeah those are

03:43:07.580 those margins are tight and how many 75 out of 230 polls and the conservatives are looking to

03:43:15.820 make major gains in edmonton uh liberal wipeout possibly there is still still still votes to come

03:43:22.060 in uh heather mcpherson uh leading uh the sole ndpc oh no no no yeah uh the ndp have lost edmonton

03:43:32.860 griesbach uh down i called that it was a very close race between carrie the odd who ran again 0.98

03:43:39.180 this time and uh the ndp challenger there reality reality is with the ndp dropping off

03:43:44.940 we were going to take that ride in interestingly interestingly enough that it's doesn't seem that

03:43:49.180 political because in carried out's nomination there was maybe only 400 500 total membership

03:43:53.580 votes cast it's uh it was a late nomination too and care karen principe uh counselor was running 0.73

03:43:59.740 against him but they the conservatives held that one for quite some time i'm not surprised on that

03:44:04.460 one like either the interesting one selfishly is coming back to edmonton center where i live

03:44:10.540 And it's looking like a vote split. Yeah, but the vote split is looking stronger than anywhere else in the province for Tricia Estabrook. She's probably going to be the reason that Syed Ahmed can pull it off as actually being the highest percentage we might have seen of NDP.

03:44:26.340 100 votes between between Syed Ahmed and uh and the Liberal challenger there like that

03:44:35.540 that isn't over yet that writing has flipped quite a bit because uh Anne McClelland always

03:44:39.700 would win that 20-30 years ago by very small moments and Laurie Hahn ran twice and took her 1.00

03:44:45.620 out in 2006. So I'm going to bring the conversation back to Saskatchewan for a moment here uh

03:44:50.740 conservatives are declared elected in all the rural ridings except for uh churchill river

03:44:58.260 i was gonna call that for ease uh for ease those are really cool total numbers there

03:45:04.020 yeah i mean this is a really low population riding uh it it's like three and a half uh

03:45:10.660 4 000 people voting there really low uh uh 62 of 88 percent uh is that part of the redistribution

03:45:21.780 has that affected it i'm not sure uh but maybe uh brad ball has something to say uh the

03:45:28.020 conservatives have taken all the rural ridings except for churchill river they've swept saskatoon

03:45:33.860 entirely and uh looking down at regina uh the two urban regina seats are yet to be called but

03:45:41.060 the conservatives have got a very strong lead in regina louvan and a pretty decent lead in uh

03:45:49.940 wascana uh maybe uh thoughts from rebel well and in the northern riding where the liberals are

03:45:55.620 are going to win. As I said, he was a cabinet minister with the NDP, used to be a liberal

03:46:03.960 MLA when he was first elected. And he's got a good, you know, he's like, and he's got

03:46:10.420 a history. And I know, you know, we would tell our candidates back in the day, you know,

03:46:16.040 we, a good, a really good local candidate might count as high. A really good one. Buckley's

03:46:23.540 higher than that i think plus that riding that that northern riding wouldn't be would wouldn't

03:46:29.540 be predisposed to voting conservative uh so it's not a surprising result up there yeah yeah the

03:46:35.860 provincial ndp does well up there uh you know saskatchewan jeremy harrison held that riding

03:46:41.060 he was part of your cabinet uh brad uh he held that riding 2004 to 2006 and then and then it

03:46:46.660 flipped over there was all sorts of allegations then but uh for the most part i i do think that

03:46:51.540 the local candidate matters in that area particularly when you see such low numbers

03:46:55.060 voting well well it's it's the least populated uh riding in all of canada i believe and i think it's

03:47:01.540 also the third largest outside of uh the northwest like the northern territories okay okay i i gotta

03:47:07.620 ask you guys about this weird riding i actually have not nerded out enough i guess on the

03:47:12.580 redistricting but this looks to be uh selkirk interlake uh eastman is that's a non-contiguous

03:47:21.540 contiguous constituency are they allowed to do that apparently look at that that is a non-contiguous

03:47:28.080 constituency that is incredibly rare I've actually have never seen that before uh Brad wall have you

03:47:34.200 ever seen a non-contiguous constituency I've seen some funny ones in America where they

03:47:39.840 really gerrymander it but I have never seen that we uh we used to joke about how it might be nice

03:47:45.840 have that happen if some of those want some of our small part way but no i don't think i've ever

03:47:54.960 seen that that is some very advanced gerrymandering there uh derek uh like that's next level but not

03:48:02.320 going the way of those that probably gerrymandered it well they've got a contiguous writing from

03:48:07.920 all right okay uh let's see uh do we have james standing by is james uh james here james james

03:48:15.360 james is here okay we're gonna bring james in um where uh james is coming to us from edmonton james

03:48:21.520 where are you in edmonton derek how's it going good uh word is namarjeet so he uh just did it

03:48:29.760 yeah that's uh i'm actually quite surprised obviously he's a high profile candidate uh

03:48:37.680 being the mayor of edmonton so a significant disappointment to him slaughtered you know

03:48:43.840 what's the more disappointing part is he's going back to be mayor for his last five months and i

03:48:49.280 gotta deal with him still so that's the more disappointing service in that public service

03:48:55.120 announcement yeah absolutely and you know there's uh there are other surprises too at

03:49:01.760 at uh edmonton greensbach there is uh edmonton center um with the former riding of randy bossano

03:49:15.440 no the randy split the vote there was two randy that's right good randy and bad randy yeah

03:49:22.800 I'm going to bow out here.

03:49:24.260 Thanks for having me on tonight.

03:49:25.660 Thanks.

03:49:27.040 Bye.

03:49:28.820 Oh, who did we just lose?

03:49:31.560 You got me?

03:49:33.600 Premier Wallsley.

03:49:34.840 Oh, okay.

03:49:36.140 Eric, go and check out Carlton.

03:49:38.460 I'm on Election Canada's website.

03:49:40.020 I know there's only 12 polls reporting, but Bruce Fangio is pulling ahead with a 1,700-vote lead.

03:49:47.360 Yeah, yeah, I'm looking here.

03:49:48.920 um and there's going to be nail biters in calgary confederation and calgary center there's uh

03:49:54.520 less than 200 votes either one of them that's going to pop up and down all night yeah here

03:49:59.400 let's look at okay calgary center uh effectively tied the liberals have the slight uh the slightest

03:50:09.720 of slight leads no was it 20 it was 2015 when cantera won right yeah yeah he held it for one

03:50:15.480 term uh during yeah that's when randy bosno run won his first go and i ran that campaign and it

03:50:21.480 we lost by 1200 votes so i think these are going to be those repeats jonathan that you're talking

03:50:26.840 about confederation very close in 2015 that can't hear one by and uh ray mclean has held very very

03:50:34.280 strong margins 2019 2021 again the collapse of the ndp is the biggest factor there yeah uh let's go

03:50:42.440 over into the ottawa area there's only one riding in the entire ottawa area not yet called the

03:50:51.000 leading liberal uh bruce fanjoy uh leading over pierre pauliev let me tell you east if you guys

03:51:01.480 don't even elect him in his constituency you're saying something take him out here

03:51:06.680 yeah we'll take him back he can be prime minister or something else

03:51:11.320 this is crazy can we just talk about how crazy these election results i feel like i've gone

03:51:18.380 through with so many emotions tonight i was like atlantic canada surprised us and quebec was

03:51:23.640 obviously like where we thought it'd be but yeah and even i think to many of the discussions that

03:51:30.380 we'll have this evening but like the western vote like the western alienation vote i think is

03:51:38.420 showing the ndp have won a single seat oh where uh uh no it says two they've elected two oh i'm

03:51:45.740 seeing one where are they so like we had early calls on declaration of who's gonna win and now

03:51:52.440 we're yeah it's pretty crazy i mean there are some crazy governing coalition scenarios that

03:51:59.540 take place here i think yours is not gonna happen no no i i don't think so that would kill the

03:52:04.180 conservative party oh it would be the end that would be the end of the conservatives the end of

03:52:09.060 it all yeah i don't think probably revitalization of the reform party i could see an erin o'toole

03:52:14.500 doing that you know this circumstance trump boogeyman national unity i could see an erin 0.99

03:52:19.140 o'toole trying to lead the conservatives into a national unity government uh you try and pick

03:52:25.220 off block people and have them we tried that in alberta 2014 how did that work out it swept even

03:52:31.620 me out uh yeah yeah don't don't don't do that it's not good um no erica you're working with me in the

03:52:41.380 building come on no no i was gone by then the conservatives have now take uh taken all the

03:52:48.340 seats in saskatoon all three are now all solidly conservative so there's just the two uh left in

03:52:53.620 in Regina that are up for grabs.

03:52:55.860 But both are being led by the service.

03:52:58.420 They're looking pretty conservative.

03:52:59.080 Oh, there's no way my riding's going liberal.

03:53:01.840 I mean, I literally saw...

03:53:02.760 What are you, Oskar or Lubin?

03:53:04.480 I'm Lubin.

03:53:05.420 And I've literally seen three liberal signs.

03:53:09.100 Three liberal signs.

03:53:09.940 We're both like a few kids, Jonathan and Dennis and I.

03:53:12.040 Three liberal signs is all I've seen in the entire election.

03:53:14.660 Come on, Erica, don't sell me out. 1.00

03:53:17.620 Now, look at these idiots. 1.00

03:53:19.700 Look at these idiots. 1.00

03:53:20.640 Toronto. 1.00

03:53:22.220 Toronto.

03:53:22.660 Why does it say the genre on the website?

03:53:24.500 Some conservative pickups.

03:53:26.960 Vaughn Woodbridge, conservative pickup.

03:53:29.840 Thorne Hill, conservative hold.

03:53:32.380 That's Melissa Lastman.

03:53:35.440 Conservatives leading.

03:53:37.000 Pretty decently-ish.

03:53:38.820 And Roman Babber.

03:53:41.460 That's an interesting guy to get in.

03:53:44.420 He's just an interesting guy.

03:53:47.540 He's an interesting guy.

03:53:48.700 We're competitive in that area.

03:53:51.760 i wasn't picking that up just looking at elections canada 164 to 146 is the seat count

03:53:57.200 so uh these are beating pundits they're beating the 338 website in terms of seats liberals eight

03:54:03.520 short of a majority the question is is what happens in pierre's riding like i'm looking

03:54:07.900 here at 6800 to 4900 to get here like that's the real enigma here the guy has increased their seats

03:54:13.640 from 129 to 146 but unfortunately maybe carlton's not one of them like that's that's bonkers that

03:54:21.300 His writing is actually in play.

03:54:26.100 Check Carney's.

03:54:27.520 Just for fun.

03:54:28.460 Okay, well, he's next door.

03:54:30.640 Oh, that's kind of there.

03:54:31.460 There's Nepean.

03:54:32.460 Carney got it pretty hard.

03:54:34.940 60, elected with 63.3%.

03:54:37.560 Conservative Barbara Ball at 33.7%.

03:54:41.960 You know, the west end of Ottawa, Nepean. 0.97

03:54:45.840 I've got a lot of family from that area.

03:54:48.520 Ottawa West, Nepean, 62%.

03:54:49.920 that area of ottawa didn't use john baird used to represent represent ottawa west european

03:54:54.800 uh in a slightly different configuration it's now a super liberal majority writing what the

03:55:01.440 hell happened they all worked for the government that's what happened yeah or was it the like

03:55:07.120 the hundreds of thousands of increase in public servants in the under the last nine years i can't

03:55:13.440 hurt a little bit erica on that one they they literally bought that writing by just throwing

03:55:19.280 out government jobs like they were candy on halloween jeremy nixon and greg mcclain both

03:55:24.640 pulling ahead here guys oh let's go back to alberta oh let's bring in uh peter coleman for some fun

03:55:32.480 here uh actually hold on uh first yeah okay peter coleman's next up that's let's throw them in the

03:55:38.080 mix i'm very happy with this peter spin of events yeah uh peter we are seeing an absolutely crazy

03:55:47.200 night here gonna come to you in a second we're just gonna talk about calgary this is the map

03:55:51.760 of calgary right now now it doesn't mean it's gonna stay that way but northeast uh that looks

03:55:58.320 to be a conservative hold i i think skyview is going conservative but that's a redistributed

03:56:03.360 calgary skyview that's that's essentially a new riding calgary mcknight uh still close uh 75 of

03:56:12.160 196 polls reported conservatives uh with about four point lead they could do it calgary center

03:56:20.160 uh greg mcclain incumbent conservative pulled ahead again narrow lead calgary confederation

03:56:26.160 jeremy nixon former alberta ucp mla uh represented part represented part of that riding but lost it

03:56:32.640 in the last provincial election uh very slight 0.9 lead uh so that would be a that would be a

03:56:39.440 calgary recounts guys i'm telling right now okay but when do we call oh no go away edmonton center

03:56:48.240 is back to a liberal lead uh but still less than half there's a lot of champagne socialists in

03:56:52.960 there so yeah uh peter uh so peter coleman is the uh president of the national citizens coalition

03:57:01.040 for those paying attention at home that uh that was the organization that stephen harper led during

03:57:06.320 his interregnum away from parliament between 97 and 2001 ish uh uh peter uh i have no idea what

03:57:14.880 to make of tonight uh your thoughts a crazy night i mean at uh atlantic county it went well we're

03:57:21.680 not really sure i mean um like mixing uh pretty expensive for the country when he stayed to get

03:57:28.000 his pension and uh the party the bed for lack of better terms i mean uh like i think paulia's

03:57:34.480 percentage of votes the highest for conservatives since uh brian moroni you know uh yeah he might

03:57:42.080 uh where are we at with popular where's popular vote right popular vote 42 so he's beat stephen

03:57:48.640 harper he has beats like it has been a insanely long time in canada where a party has won 40

03:57:55.920 of the voter more and not won a majority government that just doesn't happen anymore so okay just to

03:58:00.000 that point, Derek, Stephen Hartford did win 5,600,000 votes in 2015. It was Andrew Scheer who

03:58:09.280 took him over 6 million in 2019. But lower percentage of the vote.

03:58:15.440 And then Aaron O'Toole lost a half a million votes. So it's going to be interesting to see

03:58:22.560 where the Conservatives end up this evening against those competitors. But for what you're saying,

03:58:30.000 And it would be the ultimate irony for Pierre Polyev to lift the party back up, lose his own seat, and see another conservative, another liberal minority.

03:58:41.200 Peter, let's talk about Pierre Polyev tonight.

03:58:45.760 It's not a given he's going to lose his seat, but it does seem to be in the cards.

03:58:49.980 Oh, we've got Mike Silber.

03:58:51.060 That's not Mike Silber.

03:58:51.960 That's still just James.

03:58:52.860 Okay.

03:58:53.260 Sorry.

03:58:53.560 You look like Mike.

03:58:54.780 Does he look like Mike Silber a bit there?

03:58:56.240 I honestly thought that for a second.

03:58:57.920 Mike doesn't dress that well

03:59:00.540 No, and Mike doesn't comb his hair

03:59:03.240 But he is going to be on the program

03:59:05.060 So I thought that was it

03:59:06.120 Peter

03:59:07.320 Alright, well, it's a bit of a hypothetical

03:59:11.180 Here, if Polyev 0.95

03:59:13.020 Loses his seat

03:59:14.700 Does he stay on as leader, do you think?

03:59:18.440 Yeah

03:59:18.640 That would be crazy if he loses his seat

03:59:21.240 With all that's going on, because I know the people

03:59:23.060 At West are always frustrated with what happened

03:59:24.640 In and around Toronto, but

03:59:26.060 But, you know, downtown Toronto is not going to vote any other than a liberal NDP.

03:59:29.780 But there's a bunch of ridings in and around Toronto that went conservative this time.

03:59:34.420 And their share of the vote is much higher percentage-wise than it has been in a long time.

03:59:37.940 So it'll be fascinating to see what happens because if he loses his seat, then I think that's trouble for him for sure.

03:59:43.920 But, I mean, you know, I don't think anybody would have predicted the NDP would have fallen this far if he'd asked me a couple months ago.

03:59:51.580 You knew they were going to be, you know, they were broke, so they couldn't call a campaign.

03:59:55.700 but it's going to be really interesting too because the conservatives try and work with

04:00:00.500 the bloc and some things too that carney has not got carte blanche to um to do what he wants and

04:00:05.940 behave what he wants and you know i've been on your show your show your folk shows a few times

04:00:10.980 i don't think carney's the brilliant economist that people think he is i don't think his record's

04:00:15.780 all that great i think his hold is going to be tenuous in power i mean you know they're trying

04:00:20.820 to the media's trying to say there's a big sweeping victory for the liberals it's not really

04:00:25.300 it's not really it's it's disappointing if you're a conservative for sure but um

04:00:30.420 a liberal majority government would have been absolute unmitigated disaster so um jade meet

04:00:37.780 singh still trailing very badly in his writing in a definite third place uh he deserves to lose badly

04:00:46.980 Sorry, what?

04:00:48.000 He deserves to lose badly.

04:00:50.840 Yeah.

04:00:52.640 Oh, there we go.

04:00:54.880 Yeah, I mean, still

04:00:56.060 35 of 200 polls there.

04:00:58.540 Maybe he pulls something out of the hat,

04:01:00.200 but that's a big, big gap

04:01:02.160 to close.

04:01:03.800 He's toast. Elizabeth May,

04:01:06.320 I actually thought

04:01:08.060 that writing could go elsewhere.

04:01:11.240 Liberals are non-

04:01:12.060 NDP are non-existent, 3.8%.

04:01:14.200 Right.

04:01:14.780 uh it's the drop off of the ndp look at pierre's writing one and a half percent one and a half

04:01:21.260 wow like wow i don't know if i've ever seen bottom of the barrel of support like that for the ndp

04:01:27.020 ever no no uh look in here yeah uh yeah they're they're barely double the green party in that

04:01:34.780 riding um then there's a million independents there was some kind of uh 95 or something

04:01:39.740 candidates yeah there's uh that was some it's like a protest against the first past post system or

04:01:44.620 something uh yeah the ballot was four pages long yeah but they didn't do it against mark carney

04:01:50.620 in nepean where there are one two three four or five candidates no independence at all they

04:01:57.340 they seem to be very selective about who they do this with uh guys i've i've just been called by

04:02:01.820 uh a uh a candidate's uh official agent uh in a very close riding here i've got a i've got to

04:02:07.740 sign off here thanks very much for the opportunity and uh i'm looking forward to some interesting

04:02:13.020 times thank you for joining us that's uh donathan dennis uh lawyer here in calgary and former uh

04:02:19.660 pc cabinet minister and minister of justice all the best guys thank you all right um

04:02:29.100 all right uh how many do we know how many the uh ndp are elected in uh okay ndp are elected in two

04:02:35.340 seats leading and elected in eight so their ceiling right now is probably around eight seats

04:02:46.540 yeah that's best case scenario that's the best case scenario like we're talking best case here

04:02:51.980 is eight yeah yeah hey uh sean do you want to pull up the math find out the last time

04:02:57.260 the ndp have had eight seats or less please okay uh you just find it let me know when you've got

04:03:02.620 that yeah um but if you had eight seats in say 1993 that's more like having uh 10 or 11 today

04:03:09.900 because it was a small parliament so your proportion of parliament with eight seats you

04:03:14.460 know 20 40 years ago is more uh i mean we even have five more from lasco yeah yeah uh do we

04:03:21.420 remember anyone recall like how many seats the ndp get in 1993 because they got pretty wiped

04:03:26.300 I think 1993 was the previous low point of the NDP, and then they kind of slowly crawled back up.

04:03:42.680 But then they had their long march that began under Jack Layton, pulling them up into political relevance all the way to a huge official opposition.

04:03:49.980 pretty big bump in the road with Thomas Mulcair

04:03:54.900 but then wow they really

04:03:56.900 were lucky with Thomas Mulcair

04:03:58.920 they didn't know

04:04:01.060 how good they had it

04:04:01.760 yeah their record

04:04:04.740 was nine in 1993

04:04:06.980 nine in 1993

04:04:08.780 nine in 1993

04:04:10.180 okay so that was a

04:04:12.920 smaller parliament

04:04:13.900 so nine then is more

04:04:16.640 an equivalent of nine out of 295

04:04:18.900 under Audrey McLaughlin.

04:04:21.040 Okay, so if you want

04:04:23.040 to also just maybe do the math

04:04:24.920 on that, and then let's keep going

04:04:26.920 further back. We may have to go back to the

04:04:28.960 CCF. I'm not positive. We may

04:04:30.940 have to go back to the CCF.

04:04:32.880 How many seats are there? 299?

04:04:35.380 CCF, 19, 265.

04:04:37.640 17, 265.

04:04:39.020 21, 265. This is

04:04:40.900 Tommy Douglas. Are we going to have to go back

04:04:42.940 to the Socialist Labor Party?

04:04:44.780 31, 264.

04:04:46.500 16, 264, David Lewis.

04:04:49.860 that broadband never had lower than 226 out of 282 audrey mclaughlin 9 295 so alexa mcdonough

04:04:58.980 21 301 13 301 that might be close alexa mcdonough in 2000 okay so please go back in history you may

04:05:06.500 have to go into the ccf canadian commonwealth federation predating the ndp as a predecessor

04:05:10.820 party let's go back uh once the last time they had eight seats and then calculate as percentage

04:05:16.340 uh and that i'm doing like long division here yeah and we're at about 10 c long division required

04:05:22.580 the lowest seat camp the ccf ever had was 1958 and they had eight seats out of a much much smaller

04:05:30.500 much much smaller yeah 1958 things tonight is likely to go down as the least successful

04:05:39.780 socialist leader in the country's history yeah well they did it sounds like they did

04:05:45.220 he's going worse than trudeau did yeah i guess he could have been the leader of the opposition

04:05:54.020 right now wouldn't be the first time they're getting allied too closely with justin trudeau

04:05:58.900 is bad for your political career normally that's a woman but yeah it's bad for most people after 1.00

04:06:06.020 the 1958 election oh all right so give us your number here and then we're going to bring in

04:06:11.300 shay anderson in a moment okay after the 1958 election they got eight seats they picked up one

04:06:15.940 in a by-election sorry eight seats in 1958 right and then they won a by-election in 1960 to give

04:06:22.340 it nine but they changed the party they changed it to the new party but there there's one big

04:06:29.140 thing tonight though it's it's the doubles and ndp aren't 172 the conservators and block have more

04:06:34.980 it's gonna be a fast right yeah so it's not necessarily a given i mean it'd be a weird

04:06:38.980 We should bring in Shea because as much as we as conservatives might be upset by the loss, his party is decimated.

04:06:45.340 Okay, let's bring in Shea. Make Shea a big head. We'll be small heads. Make Shea a big head because he's got a big beard.

04:06:54.320 I've always been jealous of the size of Shea's beard.

04:06:59.160 You're working on it.

04:07:00.040 Yeah. Shea was elected as NDP member of the Alberta legislature in 2015, the time I came in, and he worked his way on up to become minister. He might be a New Democrat, but he's among the least crazy ones I know. You can at least understand what he's saying. And I always got along with him. Thanks so much for joining us, Shea.

04:07:24.940 Derek

04:07:26.480 Never mind

04:07:32.900 it looks like Karl Marx with

04:07:34.480 a shaved head

04:07:35.460 Thanks for having me

04:07:45.140 Can you hear me?

04:07:46.020 Yeah we hear you just fine

04:07:47.060 You didn't need to make it a big head

04:07:50.600 My head's big enough

04:07:51.460 Alright

04:07:53.460 All right. Shay, you're a long-time new Democrat. Tonight, it might not be a great night for

04:08:02.760 the conservatives, but it is a devastating night for the NDP.

04:08:11.700 It would appear that the high watermark, based on the results we're seeing right now,

04:08:18.520 the best case scenario for the NDP is probably eight seats and uh we're trying to run the math

04:08:24.020 on here and that is that would probably be the worst record result for the NDP uh slash Canadian

04:08:31.540 Commonwealth Federation since possibly the second world war maybe even earlier um I don't know uh

04:08:39.440 how does that make you feel how does that make you how do you feel about that

04:08:43.840 oh we can't we can't hear you anymore okay no oh there we are i'm getting like double

04:08:52.080 i'm getting a repeat of your you talking so it's kind of hard to

04:08:56.320 pick it up here just a second okay

04:08:59.760 well i mean obviously it's not great geez i mean that's that's another statement oh

04:09:09.440 uh where did the party go wrong or or singh uh i mean uh if if singh had you know he said he's

04:09:19.200 ripping up the agreement with justin trudeau but then didn't move did we just lose uh shay yeah

04:09:23.980 we just lost him yeah no he just got it he just got it okay let's bring it back in in a moment

04:09:30.900 um okay so that one elected seat is in uh edmonton strathconer yeah that's yeah oh is that

04:09:39.080 declared elected now that's declared elected yes okay uh which was i think a given yeah i mean

04:09:45.860 that's i mean that was rachel notley's seat like it let's try yes they will vote for carl

04:09:50.980 and heather has been there forever she's been there a long time yeah uh stalin could win that

04:09:55.580 riding uh perhaps good liberal edmonton center edmonton center uh it's not called though yet

04:10:03.440 not called uh a little fair bit to go could go okay we've got shay anderson back hey sorry i had

04:10:08.680 uh i had another tab open so i was hearing double it was my fault okay i hear double all the time

04:10:13.320 it's okay um all right so the the ap uh its best case scenario based on the numbers we're seeing

04:10:20.080 right now is eight seats probably going to be lower uh we've got sean running some numbers here

04:10:25.960 we're going to get a better sense soon but that if so that would be the worst result for the ndp or

04:10:32.880 its predecessor the canadian commonwealth federation since the second world war

04:10:37.380 maybe going back even earlier getting close to the first world war this wasn't around i mean like i

04:10:43.800 don't know how does that make you feel like uh what are your thoughts like where did it go wrong

04:10:49.760 yeah well i mean obviously it's not great it's not what anybody wants ever um you know

04:10:56.340 it's it's when you look at it and you look at the polling beforehand you look at some of the

04:11:02.060 things were going on with center let's say center-left voters and and what their thoughts

04:11:07.180 on poly of were you understood we were going to lose some seats because you know people believe

04:11:13.340 in strategic voting and so you saw a lot of that out east and say um right around edmonton maybe

04:11:19.080 where we thought we might have like Blake's seat, which is unfortunate.

04:11:22.580 I think he's a good MP.

04:11:25.040 But I think we lost a lot of that vote to the Liberals, unfortunately.

04:11:31.080 People were worried.

04:11:32.000 You look at some people down here on the south of the island right now,

04:11:36.220 and we got a couple of Liberals I think they're going to be winning seats,

04:11:39.660 which is, I think it's been 17 years since the Liberals won a seat on the island.

04:11:44.240 We're usually staunchly NDP.

04:11:47.420 And so, yeah, it's not great.

04:11:49.080 uh i think you know people count us out all the time they've counted us out over the years you

04:11:54.920 guys were crunching the numbers there and seeing what was going on um in the past and how we've

04:11:59.560 come back and gone up and down and i think that we'll come back from it uh we have to we we don't

04:12:05.160 give up we're stubborn you know what i'm like eric so uh you know most of us staunch ndpers

04:12:11.800 are pretty stubborn that way and but it is hard to take obviously i mean who who wants to lose

04:12:16.840 seats and especially there's some good mps of lawsuits regardless of your political affiliation

04:12:20.760 there's going to be good people that are losing seats that bring a good strong voice to the

04:12:25.320 legislature to the parliament sorry and so yeah it's it's it's not great however i slice it so

04:12:30.840 so where do you think the ndp went wrong here um i mean if if sing uh so before we got cut off i was

04:12:38.840 uh i was saying you know if back in the fall around october saying said i'm ripping up the

04:12:44.520 deal it's over but that didn't seem to do to change anything continued to vote confidence in

04:12:50.920 the liberal government if he had voted to bring down trudeau at that time uh he would have stood

04:12:56.600 at a very good chance of becoming the leader of the opposition at least uh and then now he is on

04:13:04.280 track to come in third place in his own seat uh and bring the ndp down to its worst result by far

04:13:10.840 the party's history including its predecessor parties uh from before um is it is this all on

04:13:18.760 is this mostly on singh uh well you know who should wear the blame tomorrow morning in the

04:13:24.760 ndp i mean what's happened like like obviously i'm not going to talk on behalf of the part of

04:13:29.320 the federal party or our provincial counterparts but you you make a good point like in the fall

04:13:34.360 when the agreement was there and and he had said about um possibly ripping it up and then and you

04:13:41.640 know you see what he said in the campaign the reason why he didn't is because the fears were

04:13:46.760 that pauliav was going to get rid of pharmacare and dental care which has helped millions of

04:13:50.360 people across canada and traditionally the ndp is the one like i was listening earlier and you guys

04:13:55.320 were talking about or somebody was talking about about the social voice and they have traditionally

04:13:59.640 been the voice of working people and the social voice um and he didn't want those programs to go

04:14:05.640 away because people like like us that you know for example out of benefits and can afford benefits

04:14:10.200 and things like that we we don't notice these things but people that don't have benefits uh

04:14:15.560 value those types of things that the ndp fights for on a day-to-day basis in a in a big way and so

04:14:21.320 he didn't want to he didn't want to lose that but your point is is valid as well and i think that

04:14:27.160 you're not wrong that in the fall if he had to rip that up and they pulled you know they pulled the

04:14:31.800 rug out and there was a vote i think paulia probably would have had a majority and i think

04:14:37.160 the ndp probably would have had more seats by doing what he did and maybe some people not

04:14:42.600 understanding it in the party maybe they pulled their vote to the liberals as well you know what

04:14:47.320 i mean like hard to say but i think probably that's probably part of the case okay we're

04:14:52.200 gonna go to nigel just a moment i just want to check with production are we standing by to bring

04:14:56.040 on Pierre Polyev, Mark Carney, and Jagmeet Singh when they take the stage?

04:15:02.280 We're set up for that? Okay, when they come, make sure you interrupt me.

04:15:06.600 It's going to be a while. Yeah, Shay, we haven't met, but anyway, hi.

04:15:12.120 The expectation is that the NDP will not do well on Vancouver Island.

04:15:16.440 now to what extent is david eby responsible for the fortunes of the ndp in british columbia

04:15:27.500 generally rather than jagmeet singh well that's a tough question i mean i think that

04:15:34.400 you know the the provincial ndb ndp did very well here um we have had a lot of change in population

04:15:41.200 people come from different provinces and things like that over the last few years so

04:15:45.200 i think that's partly to play with it when i moved home five years ago to duncan i was working up

04:15:50.220 island and there was a lot of mainlanders a lot of people from alberta uh northern bc that were

04:15:55.540 probably traditionally conservative so i think part of the vote has changed as well we've been

04:16:01.200 pretty staunchly ndp for a long time for the most part um but it's getting a little more more diverse

04:16:06.980 now so i i don't think there's i don't think you can say oh it's david evey to blame or it's

04:16:13.040 Jagmeet Singh to blame I think that um I think things have changed and I think that in my my

04:16:19.320 opinion but this is just me and Derek and I have talked about these things before is is you know

04:16:24.860 sometimes for example the conservatives I find take uh the voters for granted in Alberta because

04:16:31.200 they mostly just vote blue well the NDP has done that sometimes with working people as well

04:16:35.900 and union workers uh and taking that for granted and i guess not spoken to them and and you know

04:16:43.820 laid their fears and laid out um a plan you know a logical plan for them sometimes and i think

04:16:49.700 maybe that's part of it as well because i have union workers here that i know that were voting

04:16:54.580 conservative and that used to be unheard of right like yeah well uh like i i've got a i got a buddy

04:17:03.340 who is a union leader and he's voting conservative uh he voted conservative uh because he hunts uh

04:17:10.680 he works with his hands and you know all parties are are coalitions and you have to stitch them

04:17:16.700 together but now you come from the more union labor background uh wing of the NDP there are

04:17:24.980 other wings there's kind of the environmentalist uh kind of hardcore environmentalist wing and then

04:17:31.420 there's, you know, kind of the downtown, you have to forgive my probably pejorative terms,

04:17:36.640 I don't know how else to describe it, kind of the woke, urban, yuppie. And that seems to have

04:17:43.920 captured kind of progressivist parties across the West, but the NDP has not been immune from that.

04:17:50.720 The NDP, you know, it's still got that union wing, but at least to me, it seems to have become

04:17:57.820 overshadowed by uh you know the environmentalist wing uh the kind of social uh social progressivist

04:18:08.140 wing that kind of thing um i don't know do you how would you respond to that analysis no no i i

04:18:15.100 yeah i totally understand what you're saying and i could i could understand why it looks like that

04:18:19.980 obviously and and you know it's part of what i was saying is i think that the ndp has a lot of value

04:18:25.100 for working people and union people but we have to make sure that we lay that plan out there a

04:18:30.300 little more coherently to be honest i think that sometimes we just even we did this when we were

04:18:35.580 in government we were doing a lot of good things we thought and we're working hard and we had some

04:18:39.340 good things for working people but you sometimes think oh we're doing all these things so they must

04:18:44.540 realize it or they must read it or they they see what we're doing well everybody's busy they have

04:18:49.180 families they're they're paying their mortgage and their bills and and and they don't have time for

04:18:53.180 that so you have to keep things pretty simple uh and straight to the point and that's where

04:18:57.500 conservatives actually do a very good job of of you know you can make fun of slogans and all these

04:19:02.060 things and acts attacks and whatever but people hear it and they remember it right and so i think 0.78

04:19:06.700 that we need to do a better job of um outlining what we're doing for people and how it actually

04:19:11.740 affects everybody on a day-to-day basis because like really when it comes down to it i think

04:19:16.620 you know you you're looking at what's going to be better for you and your family and how you

04:19:21.980 uh take care of your of your kids and and the people around you right and so you know if somebody's

04:19:27.740 speaking to you and empathizing with you and showing you a way even if you're not sure if

04:19:32.860 it's actually going to happen or it's just a promise that you don't think is going to get there

04:19:37.260 you know it it speaks to you sometimes right and so i think we need to do as ndp is a lot better

04:19:42.860 job of that i we have some very good leaders and some very good speakers and i think that people

04:19:47.500 can do that um you know but i think we just need to do more of it okay um i want to talk about uh

04:19:55.500 pauliev and singh right now so we're i'm going to bring in peter coleman as well uh we're going to

04:20:00.380 start with singh so we'll just we'll stay with shay for a second uh jb singh it's not called

04:20:07.100 yet it's only 55 of 200 polls in but he seems to be dropping further and further behind 19.4

04:20:14.140 percent trailing both the conservative and the liberal in that constituency. I would imagine,

04:20:22.320 even if he were to miraculously come back and win that riding, I think the only reason it's not

04:20:28.160 been called is because it's between the conservatives and the liberals. I think

04:20:30.700 Jagmeet Singh's out of the race at this point. But even if he were to win his seat,

04:20:34.800 do you think he's toast his leader tonight? You know, like I've heard a bunch of people

04:20:40.040 asked me that before this um and it's not really my place to say yes or no i mean it's up to him

04:20:46.680 i'm asking for your opinion yeah there's different ways there's different ways to go about this and

04:20:53.080 the way the way i look at it is um there's something he said the other day and i heard

04:20:57.760 one of our another ndp talk about too about um about he was talking about some of the things

04:21:05.340 we were working on and he was okay with losing some seats or power i'm just paraphrasing here

04:21:12.220 um if there was going to be good things and good wins for canadians right and

04:21:17.340 and so i look at it that way and he is principled and he stood by that and i appreciate that and

04:21:24.860 he's done some really good things as party leader um now the membership is going to make this

04:21:30.940 decision i'm not going to do it on here and i'm not going to speculate because i don't like to do

04:21:34.460 that um but yeah they're gonna have to you know we as a party and and and jug meat are gonna have to

04:21:41.580 have a long look and at the results and and obviously go over them and and see where we

04:21:46.460 went wrong and figure that out and it's i mean it's a tough it's gonna be a tough conversation

04:21:51.580 no matter which way you slice it so i uh i don't know uh erica i even if you want to see and i

04:21:58.300 don't think he's winning a seat i think he's he's on track for third even if you want to see i think

04:22:03.020 he's toast. He has led the NDP

04:22:04.880 to the worst result

04:22:06.520 in its history.

04:22:08.820 And even the CCF's history.

04:22:11.060 We've probably got to go back to

04:22:12.340 possibly between the First and Second World Wars

04:22:14.960 to find... 1932.

04:22:17.840 Okay.

04:22:18.500 Let's go to welfare

04:22:20.740 wolf here for a second.

04:22:23.900 Is our wolf

04:22:24.860 blitzer on a budget?

04:22:26.880 Welfare wolf.

04:22:29.300 Okay.

04:22:30.680 Alright. So when is the last

04:22:32.780 comparable election for the ndp or its predecessors well the party was founded in 1932 we're talking

04:22:38.300 the ccf yeah ccf and uh even back then it looks like they had about a dozen you have to go back

04:22:43.820 to 1958 58 yeah so yeah i mean that's okay no 58 they won how many seats eight seats eight seats

04:22:51.660 okay and that's one ccf won a seat in 1960 to give it nine yeah okay but hold on which would

04:22:58.540 surpassed what they're on track for tonight eight seats is their best case scenario tonight it would

04:23:04.540 it would seem uh so even if they won eight as i'm saying earlier that's out of a much smaller

04:23:09.980 parliament 299 right yeah yeah so not even so that is proportionately a lot less that's a lot more

04:23:17.740 higher so it's proportionately yeah it's proportionally higher so and in 1962 they

04:23:21.980 became the ndp okay so i want you to keep going back through history because eight seats out of

04:23:26.460 a small parliament i want you to try and find it where it's proportionate as a percentage of

04:23:30.940 seats in parliament oh my god you're gonna ask me to do some math yeah okay we're gonna come

04:23:34.540 back in a moment i'm gonna let keep scrolling keep scrolling and uh get us an answer here

04:23:40.140 oh we're trying to manifesto 1933. yeah uh yeah i we're gonna so now can we come back to another

04:23:46.540 hypothetical that i just had in a texting conversation was the advanced polls so those

04:23:52.540 haven't been counted no don't they well you're likely not yet not yet they're usually among

04:23:59.020 the last to come in yeah so like and this is so pierre apparently is like 43 000 in his writing

04:24:05.340 uh yeah okay yeah so so let's if we're looking at the numbers like i mean in alberta i don't know

04:24:10.940 what they are everywhere about 110 000 votes per eda in alberta give or take 100 to 110 000. so

04:24:21.580 So right now in his running of Carleton, Polyev is trailing about six points, but only 64 of 266

04:24:30.440 polls reporting at this time. Yeah. And it apparently- Let's say you got 20,000 votes.

04:24:36.040 Well, there's a long way to go. Yeah. And it had a record for all of Canadian history for

04:24:43.020 advanced voter turnout. Yeah. Now that could be- So advanced also counts for special ballot,

04:24:49.180 all of that we last election in edmonton center had to go two days after two or three days after

04:24:55.820 to count all those and that confirmed randy now like advancements typically actually do favor the

04:25:02.460 liberals over conservatives however there's also a significant what did we say seven million and a

04:25:09.340 half million compared to a million and a half that is a huge increase also remember like 40

04:25:15.660 it's a total vote. I remember last time it favored leftist parties because leftist progressivist

04:25:21.860 party voters tended to be more worried about COVID. You know, you want to vote in the mail,

04:25:27.820 all those things. They were more worried about it than conservative-leaning voters.

04:25:31.700 Same with the United States for the 2020 presidential election favored Biden.

04:25:37.160 So that's why I think it's so interesting that a lot of these places are being called early.

04:25:41.320 like some of them i think are early without this caveat but now we're looking at even early with

04:25:48.760 a bunch of advanced special ballots all of that being uh oh you mean so the advanced ballots are

04:25:55.560 basically i'm saying that i think a lot of this is bs across the country there were seven and a

04:26:00.520 half million a bunch of ndp votes in the early ballots but there could be a bunch of conservative

04:26:05.960 round level votes change so in 1958 we're gonna get you want me to get up here get wolf okay now

04:26:17.160 now i got my uh oh and uh stephen gilbeau and sean frazier have both been re-elected sean frazier

04:26:24.600 too yeah okay well that's i'll tell you what carney's going to be doing uh in terms of

04:26:29.960 environment um okay so doing my scrolling uh 1958 uh ccf uh which was founded at the

04:26:42.120 oh i can't get it it's on two separate pages okay um because the ndp started in 1962 but they got

04:26:47.480 three percent of the seats and then um today they're on track for about two percent so they've

04:26:53.480 lost about a third relatively speaking compared to what year uh 1958. okay so but they went down

04:27:00.200 a percentage yeah so they're down so i want you to keep going backwards until you find

04:27:05.160 a worse result than the ndp is like beating a dead horse i want to know

04:27:10.680 you know this is something you talk about a week after the election i don't know it's a it's a

04:27:15.480 wipeout we're going back to probably conservatives really and what was it 1988. 1993 is when they

04:27:23.080 got two seats. Under Kim Campbell.

04:27:25.420 Yeah. I mean, that would probably

04:27:27.160 go down in history as the worst electoral

04:27:28.920 Well, that was the worst electoral defeat

04:27:31.240 for a governing party in the

04:27:33.160 history of the world. Well, it's

04:27:35.080 got to be one of the worst in Canadian

04:27:36.960 history for any party.

04:27:38.620 It was the worst in world democratic history

04:27:40.960 in 1993 for the PCs.

04:27:42.580 Yeah.

04:27:44.180 Alright, Shay, I'm going to operate on the assumption that

04:27:47.220 tomorrow morning,

04:27:48.840 Jay Meatsingh has resigned

04:27:50.920 or announced his intention to be gone.

04:27:53.080 ago from Toronto Star. What? Uncertainty and questions ahead for Jagmeet Singh.

04:27:58.440 Oh, yeah, that's been his whole election. I haven't subscribed, unfortunately.

04:28:01.640 All right, so I'm going to go to the paywall. He'll be the first to do it.

04:28:04.520 I want to go to Shay here. Shay, I'm going to operate on the assumption Jagmeet Singh is not

04:28:09.480 going to be here, so let's operate in this hypothetical. What's next for the NDP? They're

04:28:15.400 They're looking at between, I don't know, four and eight seats right now.

04:28:21.960 They're going to lose official party status under any of these circumstances.

04:28:27.460 The long march began under Jack Layden has finally come to an end, it seems.

04:28:35.460 What's next for the NDP?

04:28:36.860 What does it need to do to get back in the game?

04:28:40.360 Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's come to an end.

04:28:42.100 Like I said, we've gone up and down before.

04:28:44.140 I didn't say the party's come to an end.

04:28:45.260 And I'm saying the long march began under Jack Layton.

04:28:47.580 Yeah, so, yeah, you know, it's going to be a hard look in the mirror, to be honest,

04:28:53.480 like to say, like, where did we go wrong?

04:28:55.700 Where did we slip up?

04:28:56.520 Where did our messaging not resonate with people?

04:29:00.380 Like I said before, like we traditionally have been, you know,

04:29:03.460 a party of working people, union workers and things like that,

04:29:07.040 and social workers, teachers, and health care.

04:29:10.040 And we've done some really good things there,

04:29:12.440 and we've pushed the Liberals to do some really good things that help people.

04:29:15.260 um that even a lot of conservatives agreed with which was great but yeah we got to figure this

04:29:20.900 out we got to sit down and um we got to dissect what happened here and see if our like where our

04:29:28.080 messaging didn't honestly where it didn't resonate like it's i think it comes down to that and um

04:29:33.580 what we thought were the priorities and going in and and what ended up being the priorities i mean

04:29:39.160 affordability kind of is over everything right and and housing and and all these types of things and

04:29:45.560 how how didn't we frame things properly i think um yeah i don't i don't have the answers to be

04:29:53.240 honest i i mean i've been talking with people about it and and trying to figure it out and and i

04:29:58.200 i just think there's some good things there and we have some really good people in the party but

04:30:02.040 um maybe maybe some of the inner circle we all need to take a look at

04:30:06.920 that and everybody take a look at themselves and just be straight up and honest right like

04:30:12.000 you know we can't obviously it didn't work so we have to sit down and and be honest with ourselves

04:30:18.120 and be truthful and it's gonna hurt it's gonna really hurt but yeah you don't get better if you

04:30:23.960 don't if you're not truthful with yourself right like we didn't do well in this election we got

04:30:29.140 beat very bad you can't you get you know you can't say that we didn't and so did we do some

04:30:36.140 great things? Sure. Awesome. But now we're missing a lot of really good MPs in the house and

04:30:41.800 we got to fix that quick. Yeah. Shay, I want to pick your brain 0.97

04:30:45.620 about like what that means for the federal party versus all of the provincial counterparts. I mean,

04:30:51.520 you were part of a pretty, probably the most centrist of all NDP parties. Like what does

04:30:58.340 this mean? I mean, even Alberta, the NDP are talking about the federal relationship on May

04:31:03.700 first i think what does this look like from ndp across the board and do you think some of those

04:31:09.380 provincial um that have been successful ndp parties um do they distance themselves now too

04:31:17.220 or is there a big kumbaya moment that's coming that we just don't know about

04:31:22.580 um i don't think i don't think either one of those i don't think there's a kumbaya moment i

04:31:27.940 really don't uh i don't think we should just throw the baby out with the bath water on this one either

04:31:32.820 but i do think that we have to look at the successes of different provincial parties

04:31:39.460 like manitoba and wav canoe right like what they did there and how well they're doing and

04:31:44.340 how well people are taking what they're implementing um you know you look at doug

04:31:48.980 ford for the conservatives he's when he first got in i didn't give him a chance and quite honestly

04:31:56.020 he's done some pretty good things over the last couple of years and that's why we don't like him

04:32:00.100 yeah no but he's learned but he's learned he's yeah he's a little different than right than

04:32:08.420 paulia is and and we can have those debates on the levels of of conservatism and nd peers and

04:32:13.540 all that kind of stuff but like he he learned in his province what he needed to do to be successful

04:32:20.660 and and he's done a pretty good job of it and so for us as any peers i think our federal party

04:32:26.100 and and the provincial and territorial parties need to really look at each other and go okay

04:32:30.160 what works and what doesn't like don't just throw it all out because there's obviously things that

04:32:34.400 do work and that don't but it's it's going to be tough like honestly it's going to be really rough

04:32:39.820 after this and um i mean i'm looking forward to it because i think i've always been honest about

04:32:46.280 that derek and i've had many conversations about what we did in alberta that worked and didn't

04:32:50.960 you know you have to do that or else you're never gonna come on the other team and both of you at

04:32:56.700 that time yeah and it didn't involve it for me either um all right i want to bring uh peter uh

04:33:05.000 peter coleman uh president of the national citizens coalition into this conversation

04:33:08.180 um uh shay just mentioned a name that i have a feeling we're going to hear more of

04:33:14.580 Wob Canoe. He's a likable guy. And he's gotten over some history that most politicians can't.

04:33:23.960 You know, he's he's had some stuff. And but he's a likable guy. He comes across as genuine.

04:33:30.560 You know, he's yeah, I'm probably not the target voter for for him. But, you know, that

04:33:36.500 but geez, does he want to take that on at this point? Like he's he's a pretty successful now,

04:33:42.980 i think two-term premier of uh of manitoba i think he's just one just one just oh yeah yeah

04:33:49.060 oh sorry yeah yeah but uh people like him uh i you know i i talk to uh like liberal strategist

04:33:58.500 campaigners they really like the guy uh that they thought maybe he would be a good liberal

04:34:04.260 federal leader um but yeah you know i can actually i think she makes a point uh peter that

04:34:11.300 But he's kind of a Doug Ford of the left. He's a little less hardcore. He's not a little less ideological. He's still on the left. He's probably more of a new Democrat than Doug Ford as a conservative. But he's got that people's touch. People like him as a kind of normal guy.

04:34:30.700 But is this the guy we're going to see replace Jagmeet Singh?

04:34:35.880 Or who do you think would be the most likely candidate?

04:34:40.940 Maybe Rachel Notley.

04:34:42.900 I think he – no, heaven forbid her.

04:34:44.880 I think he's a very likable guy.

04:34:47.020 I think he presents well.

04:34:49.000 And, you know, when you're in politics long enough,

04:34:51.540 you realize you just want good, competent people running.

04:34:54.620 I mean, you want them to be there and be empowered.

04:34:57.520 I think Singh's done like dinner.

04:34:59.560 I mean, I think that he should have called when he didn't.

04:35:03.560 Everybody that has gotten too close to Trudeau, too close to the fire, has been burned.

04:35:09.440 All those cabin ministers and doing what he wanted to do got too close.

04:35:15.300 And his dislike of Paulie have cost the party because they would have had a lot more seats.

04:35:20.100 And I do know if I'm spending a lot of time with Harper over the years,

04:35:24.080 he always would rather work with the NDP than the Liberals.

04:35:27.480 He had no problem.

04:35:28.240 And he and Leighton were pretty good friends and could do some things together.

04:35:31.000 And you wish you had that back because, you know, we all know that all the liberals care about getting elected.

04:35:40.060 You know, they don't care about anything else.

04:35:41.880 And I think that the NDP have an opportunity to just look and do some soul searching and say, we've got to raise a lot of money now.

04:35:48.240 How are we going to do that? We don't have official party status.

04:35:51.320 Where are we going to go?

04:35:52.280 And I don't think the party can bring back seeing again because I think there's too many skeletons in the closet for him.

04:35:59.120 So the Premier of Manitoba would be somebody that he may not want that.

04:36:04.160 I mean, he'd say, I'm going to sit this out for a bit because you have to believe there's going to be an election within two years because they can't get to 172, the Liberals and NDP.

04:36:13.020 And there's no way Carney can behave like Trudeau did and just ignore the Conservatives or the Bloc anymore.

04:36:19.300 so that dynamic in house of commons is going to be fascinating uh do we still have chris old corn

04:36:25.100 old corn still there we're not sure um no no okay i wanted to touch on manitoba

04:36:34.080 let's touch on manitoba really quickly uh hey shay i just i just got to point this out to you

04:36:40.160 i didn't geek out on the um oh all right well we're gonna oh yeah we're gonna bring that in a

04:36:46.080 moment here um you gotta look at this on the map here i'm gonna bring up my fun map here again

04:36:51.720 i did not notice this oh uh where's my map why is my map not showing put my map in

04:37:01.460 i want map okay well that's happening okay okay anyway there's a seizure here okay uh well let's

04:37:10.540 bring in uh oh here we are okay uh we'll talk manitoba really quickly and i'm gonna bring in

04:37:15.680 ted morton look at this a non-contiguous constituency in manitoba towards the north

04:37:21.160 selkirk interlake eastman has this little gerrymandered piece of jigsaw you ever seen

04:37:28.720 anything like that jay no i saw that earlier when you brought it up and i i saw that i was like

04:37:33.500 what i didn't i never noticed that before i don't think i've i don't think i've ever seen

04:37:37.760 national park or reserve or something it must be must be but like why not connect it why not

04:37:44.720 connected yeah i've never seen that before even with the american ones where there's so many weird

04:37:49.780 ones oh yeah you can want to just go down the highway linking yeah uh this neighborhood with

04:37:54.220 that neighborhood to you know make strong red or blue pull uh i've never seen it where it's

04:37:58.780 non-contiguous that is that's a good point that erica makes a good point though that i it's got

04:38:04.280 to be something weird like like a park or something but even if it was a park wouldn't it

04:38:09.260 just be joined up but it maybe it's just like or a big gap of yeah like a reserve because you get

04:38:14.660 new settlements on claims and then they'll give individual land outside of there and they're not

04:38:18.920 going to split a reserve on two different ridings so they would jump in yeah yeah it's got to be

04:38:24.600 something weird like that that could be that could be very well okay uh okay so before uh we're gonna

04:38:29.340 bring in ted morton in a minute but before i let you go uh i don't know uh kind of you're just your

04:38:34.740 high-level thoughts for tonight um you say the ndp has got to do a big rethink uh maybe let me just

04:38:42.660 put it this way do you think new democrats broadly jake meet singh in particular regrets

04:38:50.660 not working down the government the fall

04:38:54.660 no i don't think so because of what i pointed out before about the pharma care and dental care

04:38:59.300 i think the biggest worry was that those programs that we were trying to get pushed through

04:39:04.740 in that minority government we're not going to be going through to help people and for us as

04:39:09.980 new democrats um that's a big deal right we don't do this we talked you know as mentioned a couple

04:39:16.260 minutes ago we don't do this for power we don't do this for getting our name in the in the media

04:39:20.680 or anything like that it's it's to help people right and if you're not gonna if you're not gonna

04:39:24.280 help people what are you here for so i don't think we're gonna um we're gonna regret it in that

04:39:31.660 sense um more just the sense of like maybe communicating things a little bit better but uh

04:39:37.500 no man good things got done and and i'll always appreciate that part and

04:39:41.900 now i'm gonna do some soul searching and move forward so all right that's shay anderson former

04:39:47.340 uh alberta ndp captain minister and uh carl mark's beard affectionato thanks for having me guys i

04:39:54.780 appreciate it you guys have a good night all right all right thank you shay yeah be well

04:39:58.300 All right. And maybe just a last word to you, Peter, we're going to bring in more Ted Martin in a moment.

04:40:05.620 But your your thoughts on just where it's looking tonight with a liberal minority government.

04:40:12.520 I don't think they have the mandate they think they have.

04:40:15.280 And I think it's going to be a much more interesting part of it because it's going to have to be a lot more give and take.

04:40:19.520 And the NDP aren't going to have the balance of power.

04:40:21.740 So I think it's fascinating that dynamics are going to play through.

04:40:24.740 And I bet we're back in the polls in 18 months.

04:40:27.980 And the Trump factor won't be a factor then.

04:40:32.040 It won't be a factor because it definitely hurt the conservatives this time through.

04:40:35.360 And I thought Paul Yev was much stronger as the campaign got longer.

04:40:39.120 But he was behind the eight ball a bit with the media and the Trump factor.

04:40:43.400 And it waned as people got to know Carney because I thought Carney actually ran a terrible campaign.

04:40:49.980 Very few ideas.

04:40:51.300 And we'll see that, you know, he thinks he's going to stand up to Trump, but nobody can do that.

04:40:56.160 We've had that conversation, even people's own party.

04:40:59.180 So when the Trump factor leaves, I think the conservatives will be in better shape than they are now.

04:41:03.880 Oh, all right.

04:41:06.100 How do you square the massive rallies that Polyampton was able to pull off compared to the little gatherings that Mr. Carney did?

04:41:14.520 And Mr. Carney still seems to have the higher vote.

04:41:18.980 How did that work out?

04:41:20.200 Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the dynamic change in Ontario, a lot more writings went to the to the Conservatives this time and the Liberal vote is obviously in and around Ontario is very efficient. And I think that that's always been a problem for people. And I just, you know, I think it's, I think Paulie came on late.

04:41:41.840 if the campaign lasts another week or two

04:41:44.880 I think it would have been to his benefit

04:41:46.020 more than Kearney

04:41:47.860 but sometimes it's a funny game

04:41:50.560 as you know now it's hard to score those two things

04:41:52.900 yeah

04:41:54.120 okay

04:41:54.700 oh okay

04:41:57.840 all right thank you very much for joining us

04:42:00.720 tonight Peter you take care good night

04:42:02.500 all right

04:42:03.500 one last delay of getting before getting to Ted Morton

04:42:06.680 we're going to go to Western Standards

04:42:08.840 Wolf Blitzer

04:42:09.920 Oh, he's just standing in front of a green screen.

04:42:12.000 Now he's naked. 0.90

04:42:12.820 He's naked.

04:42:13.660 Production.

04:42:15.040 Fail.

04:42:16.480 Okay, here we are.

04:42:17.240 Now it's frozen.

04:42:21.360 Okay.

04:42:22.200 Anyway.

04:42:22.660 Okay, you know what?

04:42:23.180 Why don't we come back to Wolf Blitzer after?

04:42:26.240 Let's at long last bring in Ted Morton.

04:42:30.180 Ted Morton's former finance minister of Alberta,

04:42:33.440 professor at the University of Calgary,

04:42:35.320 and

04:42:36.340 one of the men who's really helped

04:42:39.060 chart the Alberta

04:42:41.200 agenda forward here

04:42:42.240 coming to us from an undisclosed

04:42:45.400 caves compound

04:42:46.880 somewhere

04:42:47.700 light on half of your face

04:42:51.100 thanks for joining us Ted

04:42:52.980 Derek

04:42:54.260 I've enjoyed listening for the last hour

04:42:57.060 Thanks for joining us.

04:43:07.740 You've been listening for the last hour.

04:43:09.560 You see the angst that we're all going in here is, how did this happen?

04:43:16.480 That's one question, and the other question is, what does it mean for Western Canada?

04:43:23.560 I answer the first question first. Like all of you, I'm happy to see that support for socialism appears to be declining across Canada. Like all of you, I think I'm happy to see that the liberals did worse than we feared. We feared a majority government.

04:43:45.100 but i'm concerned and i'm concerned about what the collapse of the ndp means going forward

04:43:54.720 as jonathan pointed out about an hour ago the harper majorities the two harper majority

04:44:01.700 governments depended and were built upon vote splitting on the left between the nds and the

04:44:06.760 liberals and uh if if what's happening today is the new normal and there's no more ndp then there's

04:44:13.840 no more vote splitting on the left and you know pierre whoever comes next gets 40 42 percent of

04:44:21.480 the vote but uh with no vote splitting the liberals could win in ontario and quebec

04:44:27.360 uh majorities and what's worse the liberals they want to rescue the economy they obviously have to 0.96

04:44:37.500 embrace oil oil and gas and coal and make all the promises that he talked about but none of us

04:44:43.060 But if he just wants to win elections, which the liberals are pretty good at, he could tell Alberta and Saskatchewan to screw off, do what he's always done, and that would then divide the federal conservative party.

04:44:57.420 You've got a separatist, a block west, and then the liberals, you get vote splitting on the right instead of vote splitting on the left, and things get pretty crazy.

04:45:10.760 okay sorry uh we're gonna come back one second uh jb singh is uh taking the stage are we ready

04:45:16.780 for him yet production okay we're gonna go to jake meet singh uh just as soon as we're ready here

04:45:23.500 uh but oh you just started to get real interesting ted

04:45:26.940 you see the you see the risk not only without vote splitting on the left 42 of the vote what

04:45:34.880 pierre did was really really good but he still doesn't have a majority and and what's worse is

04:45:39.840 the uh the liberals and certainly carney uh it would be in his instinct to use anti-energy anti-oil

04:45:47.580 and gas policies to divide geographically divide the conservative vote and then you have vote

04:45:53.100 splitting on the right and uh well then you have a very active separatist movement in the west but

04:46:00.280 you still have liberal governments in ottawa and and what's the bad news for all of canada is

04:46:07.000 is that all the uh all the capital all the investment that's sitting on the sidelines

04:46:11.080 right now and has been sitting on the sidelines both in the u.s and across the world about

04:46:16.360 uncertainty about investing in oil and gas and uh in canada it's not sitting on the sidelines

04:46:22.600 it's going to just go elsewhere and uh the whole country will suffer i got a feeling that uh oh

04:46:28.840 are we ready oh okay uh geez why did this have to happen when ted comes on he's getting all right

04:46:34.920 that's good that's fine all right i hope you'll stick with us uh we're gonna go to

04:46:38.600 jagmeet singh addressing his supporters right now uh hopefully we've still got ted when we come back

04:46:48.680 in the honor of my life to represent the people of burnaby central

04:46:53.080 tonight they chose a new member of parliament and i wish them well

04:47:08.360 obviously i know this night is a disappointing night for new democrats we had really good

04:47:13.160 candidates that lost tonight i i know how hard you worked i spent time with you you're amazing

04:47:18.840 um i'm so sorry you're not gonna be able to represent your communities i know you're gonna

04:47:22.440 to continue to fight for them i know on how many doors you knocked how many family dinners you

04:47:27.160 missed how many nights your kids went to bed without you there to tuck him in i know it was

04:47:31.640 a tough sacrifice and i just want to thank and we can give round applause to every single candidate

04:47:46.360 thank all those incredible candidates and their incredible teams because no candidate can do

04:47:51.400 without a team the volunteers the staff you know thank you to all those candidates and

04:47:56.040 their incredible staffs one time one more time

04:48:07.720 choosing to commit your life to politics obviously comes with some sacrifice

04:48:11.880 but we choose this life because of the chance to change the country you love for the better

04:48:17.320 we may lose sometimes and those losses hurt you know it's tough but we are only defeated

04:48:23.220 if we stop fighting we're only defeated when we believe that those that tell us that we can never

04:48:29.540 dream of a better canada a fairer canada a more compassionate canada i have met new democrats

04:48:36.260 from coast to coast to coast who will never back down even when they're told that there's no room

04:48:42.780 at the table. We make room for everyone because we believe that there is enough wealth in Canada

04:49:01.660 for all of us to live the life that we deserve.

04:49:12.780 Honestly, I've got to avoid making eye contact with certain people, because then it's going

04:49:17.920 to get too emotional up here, so I just made the mistake of doing that, so I'm going to

04:49:21.340 look away now.

04:49:22.220 You know who you are.

04:49:23.580 Don't look at me again.

04:49:28.940 Almost eight years ago, I was elected the leader of this incredible party, this incredible

04:49:34.040 movement.

04:49:42.780 I've worked really hard to be worthy of this trust, to live up to the legacy of our movement.

04:49:49.780 Hold on a sec, I guess.

04:49:54.780 One more sec, one more sec.

04:49:59.780 Tonight, I've been forward to a party leader that I'll be stepping down as party leader

04:50:11.780 soon as an interim leader can be appointed now i could not have done this incredible job without

04:50:18.740 here's a point i'll give me a second to break down a bit i couldn't have done it without the

04:50:22.980 incredible support of my wife could get in 0.99

04:50:26.980 she has been my rock she's been my foundation uh for the past couple years i've been regretting

04:50:43.180 that i didn't thank her on the night of the last election so this is my opportunity to make up for

04:50:49.320 it uh she has literally been my rock i couldn't have done this without her she's backed me up

04:50:56.980 she has made she has made so many sacrifices she convinced me that she's

04:51:09.060 enjoyed them all but I don't know but she's amazing I'm just so so thankful

04:51:15.220 Thanks for being on this journey.

04:51:16.320 I'm gonna give you a hug.

04:51:17.160 Hold on.

04:51:31.220 Also, I might break down this part because,

04:51:34.720 and Anhad and Dhani, my daughters,

04:51:36.600 remind me of the future. 0.96

04:51:38.880 God damn it, that we are fighting for. 0.96

04:51:45.220 That's just because I get emotional any time I talk about my kids. 0.99

04:51:51.380 I'm very sappy when it comes to my daughter, so I get a little emotional.

04:51:56.580 I've also been supported by my family, and I've got to thank my parents who are here

04:52:00.220 today.

04:52:01.220 They're amazing.

04:52:02.220 Love you both.

04:52:07.220 My brother, I wouldn't have been on this journey without my brother, so big shout out to my

04:52:13.940 brother and honestly this may sound funny but my in-laws I literally could

04:52:25.940 have done this without my in-laws they're amazing where are my in-laws

04:52:29.500 they're somewhere here wherever they are they're here I wanted to like look at

04:52:37.400 them and point at them to you oh there they are yeah I couldn't have done it

04:52:39.460 without them literally if you if you're a parent you know how important your

04:52:43.940 parents are and your in-laws too, it turns out. So huge thank you. They've supported us. They've

04:52:49.980 kept me grounded, given us great advice. I'm just so thankful to my family. You can't do this work

04:52:54.840 without great people and you can't do this without a great family supporting you. So thank you to my

04:52:59.140 family. I'm spilling my water and everything. It's getting a little bit trying to be graceful

04:53:11.960 first um i also want to thank my ndp caucus this is this is a team that together we brought

04:53:17.880 historic change for people we brought real change the lives of canadians i know that people are

04:53:22.680 concretely better off because of our work over the last eight years and no election results will

04:53:27.560 ever diminished that. So thank you so much.

04:53:41.400 My caucus, honestly, I'm

04:53:43.360 so thankful to

04:53:45.500 them all. We did some incredible work together.

04:53:47.600 Seriously, every one of you, thank you from the bottom of my

04:53:49.520 heart. And I might break down this part

04:53:51.560 too, forgive me if I do.

04:53:53.300 I can only do this,

04:53:54.760 and we can only do this work because of a great staff and you all just poured

04:53:59.180 your heart into me into the work that we did

04:54:24.760 It's a good thing that there's water here.

04:54:30.140 This water is very strategically placed for me, so it's very lucky that I have.

04:54:34.560 I might need a couple more glasses, so if anyone can help me out on that, that'd be great.

04:54:39.840 Y'all brought your talent, your heart to the fight every day.

04:54:43.600 We treat each other with respect and dignity and kindness, and I love y'all.

04:54:54.760 all right we're almost there folks we got a couple other things i really want to get off

04:55:08.800 my chest here one other thing is uh nothing's too spicy it's just good stuff i i often speak

04:55:14.900 about something my mom taught me it's a sick teaching of jardikala and this is something

04:55:19.640 fundamental to who i am uh and it means the words break down means rising and kalah means spirits

04:55:26.840 and it's something that is it it captures a big part of who i am and it's the idea that

04:55:31.800 in the fight for justice in the fight for for fairness in the fight that we that we fight

04:55:37.480 we want to have optimism in the face of struggle we want to have a defiant optimism it's like this

04:55:43.320 eternal resilience and this is the spirit that i carry tonight obviously i'm disappointed that

04:55:48.520 we could not win more seats but i'm not disappointed in our movement i'm hopeful for our party i know

04:55:54.120 that we will always choose hope over fear and optimism over despair and unity over hate new

04:56:02.120 Democrats literally built this country you Democrats built this country we have

04:56:22.940 built the best of Canada and we aren't going anywhere thank you thank you so

04:56:29.220 much love you all you're amazing merci infiniment appreciate it so much appreciate you all so much

04:56:34.940 thank you you're amazing love you all every one of you you're amazing thank you thank you

04:56:39.980 thank you

04:56:59.220 NTT! NTT! NTT! NTT!

04:57:29.220 Thank you.

04:57:59.220 c-pack thing off there get c-pack out of here close out okay so uh that was ndp leader jagmeet

04:58:12.400 singh came in third a distant third place in his constituency um on track for the absolute worst

04:58:21.740 result in the history of the ndp and the history of any socialist party in canadian history

04:58:27.060 at least back till roughly around the first world war uh that's the this is the trivia you learned

04:58:34.700 tonight that you're so excited for i was plenty actually i've been talking about this for a long

04:58:38.940 time thinking this is the way it's gonna go um i okay uh dr morton i guess you've heard what

04:58:44.900 jagmeet singh had to say um i mean you have to put lipstick on a pig but wow it's relevant to

04:58:51.980 what I said before, the NDP's problems go deeper than Jagmeet Singh. The NDP is a party based on

04:58:59.880 unions. And today that means public sector and private sector. But there's a big gap between

04:59:07.640 private sector unions and public sector unions. The public sector unions are the teachers and

04:59:12.300 civil servants who all have university degrees and are pretty heavy into the DEI woke green

04:59:18.820 revolution policies uh and they feel they can feel pretty comfortable moving over to the liberals

04:59:25.000 and the uh the blue collar wing the blue collar unions of the ndp uh who work uh in either small

04:59:33.940 small uh companies or in the in resource industries uh are want want economic growth

04:59:41.580 they want investment they want they want the economy to come back and they can see uh and

04:59:46.740 And that's how, in fact, that's one of the areas it appears that Pierre made inroads tonight to get to that 42%.

04:59:54.740 There's some unprecedented union support for a federal conservative party tonight.

04:59:59.700 So I think the NDP is kind of coming apart right in the middle, which in one sense makes me happy.

05:00:07.780 But on the other hand, it creates, I think, a pretty serious risk to the federal PCs going forward.

05:00:16.740 Can I ask you the same question I asked Shea Anderson just now?

05:00:23.880 In British Columbia, they've had a provincial NDP government for years now, and it is interesting

05:00:32.380 the divide in the party that you just mentioned between the, you know, the people, the woke

05:00:38.060 people who work for the government and are teachers and the public sector.

05:00:42.300 Public sector versus private sector unions, yeah.

05:00:45.300 It just seems to me, and I'm asking you if I'm on the right track here, I guess, is that

05:00:50.120 a lot of the problems that they're having in BC with the NDP vote right now, probably

05:00:56.020 to do with the administration of the provincial government, which has tended to favor the

05:01:02.420 woke end of the spectrum.

05:01:04.080 So you're talking about BC in particular now?

05:01:08.180 David Eby.

05:01:09.180 David Eby in particular, I believe, it was just the last...

05:01:12.180 Okay.

05:01:13.180 follow B.C. politics carefully enough, other than their wine and their nice beer.

05:01:19.960 They just had an election and they lost their majority, basically.

05:01:22.500 I know. I know. I know. I saw that. That made me happy, too.

05:01:27.220 So, yeah, maybe the same forces are at work there.

05:01:32.000 But I think for the federal NDP, it's potentially kind of an existential threat.

05:01:37.720 if if if they're a union based party and the unions are going into public sector and private

05:01:42.520 sector unions are going in two different directions that plus they don't even like each other right

05:01:47.720 teachers and civil servants don't like their beer drinking cigarette smoking uh hockey yelling fans

05:01:54.680 from the uh from the blue collar unions so uh i think the i think the ndp problem is deeper than

05:02:01.960 in Jagmeet's thing. But then

05:02:03.800 that creates a

05:02:05.980 potential problem for the Conservatives

05:02:07.780 going forward.

05:02:10.360 Yeah, some interesting

05:02:13.240 just a little bit on BC. Aaron

05:02:15.700 Gunn has picked up

05:02:17.940 North Island Powell River

05:02:19.640 from New Democrat

05:02:21.960 Tennille Johnson.

05:02:24.000 That was a three-way race.

05:02:25.740 The NDP was still in second there.

05:02:27.840 But Aaron Gunn, that's

05:02:29.800 It's a path to a pipeline.

05:02:34.580 But Skeena, Bulkley Valley, not yet called.

05:02:38.800 Still a ton of polls to come in.

05:02:41.700 But unfortunately, it looks like Alice Ross, former BC Liberal cabinet minister, really, really solid guy.

05:02:48.140 Running for the Conservatives.

05:02:49.420 He's behind by eight points there.

05:02:52.360 Okay, I want to pick up, Dr. Martin, on where we were before we were so rudely interrupted by Jagmeet Singh.

05:02:59.800 He had something to say about buy.

05:03:02.400 Last time.

05:03:03.480 Yeah.

05:03:03.960 Yeah, we're not going to have to hear that anymore.

05:03:07.480 Tomorrow morning, I mean, there's Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan have always had nascent independence movements.

05:03:16.540 But it's normally been disorganized, lacking credible leadership, lacking money, that kind of thing.

05:03:25.180 Does that change tomorrow morning?

05:03:27.640 I think it definitely does. 0.99

05:03:29.400 and i think uh both uh the premiers of both provinces are well well ted i'm an asshole uh 0.88

05:03:37.720 pierre paulieva speaking uh i'm more than happy to give space to pierre you know that as we bring

05:03:44.760 that i'm sorry yeah okay are we got it going because i was gonna say as we load it i think

05:03:49.960 it's super important to say like 44 000 votes were cast in his advanced poll that doesn't usually get

05:03:56.120 count until after that's 40 of his vote is not in yet so yeah all right here we go

05:04:10.200 spoke in their voice and exercise their democratic

05:04:16.600 all right uh it was there have we got beer here

05:04:20.040 I had to interrupt

05:04:25.300 we don't have that screen on we need a video

05:04:33.740 and cherish you and our little ones more than you'll ever know

05:04:43.080 and I could not have done any of this without you thank you so much

05:04:46.520 cut the mics

05:04:49.300 now my message to canadians

05:04:54.780 the promise that was made to me and to all of you

05:04:58.820 is that anybody from anywhere could achieve anything

05:05:01.660 that through hard work you could get a great life

05:05:04.360 you have a nice affordable home on a safe street

05:05:07.240 my purpose in politics is

05:05:10.480 and will continue to be to restore that promise

05:05:14.060 Thank you.

05:05:35.920 To the candidates who ran under our banner as Conservatives,

05:05:39.960 to the volunteers who knocked on the doors,

05:05:41.980 made phone calls, put up lawn signs, rallied at our events, donated their hard-earned money to

05:05:47.780 our cause. I thank you from the bottom of my heart. To the millions of people who voted for

05:05:53.220 the Conservative Party and put their hopes and dreams in our vision, thank you. It will be an

05:06:00.300 honour to continue to fight for you and to be a champion of your cause as we go forward.

05:06:11.980 It would be a great honor to continue to fight for you, because it is an honor to be your

05:06:33.740 voice.

05:06:34.740 It is an honor to fight for the conservative values for which you voted.

05:06:40.420 And especially, it will be an honor to continue to advance the promise of Canada that everyone

05:06:46.820 here in Canada who works hard can have a beautiful life, a beautiful home in a safe

05:06:52.660 community. That's our vision and we will bring it home. Thank you very much.

05:07:01.540 To my fellow Conservatives, we have much to celebrate tonight. We've gained well over

05:07:08.380 20 seats. We got the highest share of vote our party has received since 1988. We denied

05:07:20.880 the NDP and Liberals enough seats to form a coalition government meeting.

05:07:30.200 And we did all this in a very difficult environment. That said, we are cognizant of the fact

05:07:38.340 that we didn't quite get over the finish line yet we know that change is needed but change

05:07:46.000 is hard to come by it takes time it takes work and that's why we have to learn the lessons of

05:07:52.920 tonight so that we can have an even better result the next time the canadians decide the future for

05:07:57.900 the country. Canadians have opted for a razor-thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote

05:08:19.900 count. So I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority 1.00

05:08:25.760 government no no we'll have plenty of opportunity to to debate and disagree but tonight we come

05:08:33.580 together as canadians we will do our job yes we will do our job to hold the government to account

05:08:39.000 but first we congratulate people from all political backgrounds on participating in

05:08:48.820 the democratic process and as i said while we will do our constitutional duty of holding

05:08:54.500 government to account and proposing better alternatives, we will always put Canada first

05:08:59.760 as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump. Conservatives will

05:09:06.000 work with the Prime Minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada's interests

05:09:11.280 and getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty

05:09:17.280 and the Canadian people.

05:09:24.500 I want to thank my Conservative team, my caucus, my members of the Conservative staff and others

05:09:32.580 who've helped reshape the entire political landscape in this country.

05:09:37.740 Conservatives have achieved major breakthroughs tonight.

05:09:40.380 We brought in record support from blue-collar and unionized workers, youth, new Canadians.

05:09:46.880 we gave voices to countless people across this country who've been left out and left behind for

05:09:54.320 far too long we won the big debates of our time on the carbon tax on inflation on housing on the

05:10:00.820 drug crisis on crime conservatives have been leading the debate and we will continue to put

05:10:06.760 forward the best arguments to improve the lives of our people right across this country but we

05:10:11.840 will not stop there. Every single day, our Conservative caucus and I will be holding the

05:10:17.420 government to account on behalf of the millions of Canadians who believed in the message of change.

05:10:23.020 En tant que parti, on a grandement élargi notre soutien et chaque jour, le caucus conservateur

05:10:31.220 et moi allons travailler à Ottawa pour rendre des comptes du gouvernement au nom des millions

05:10:38.180 of Canadians who have decided to vote for a real change.

05:10:42.180 I have had the honour to talk to thousands of people who have

05:10:47.180 shared their preoccupations, their pain, their espoirs.

05:10:52.180 Everywhere I went, hard-working people took precious time out of

05:10:55.180 their day to tell me about their struggles, their pain, their fears,

05:11:01.180 but also their hopes and dreams.

05:11:04.180 Elders and waitresses, farmers and factory workers, seniors, small business owners, and single mothers.

05:11:12.220 Young Canadians and young families pleading for the chance to own a home.

05:11:16.960 Parents who worried that their kids would never be able to move out of their home.

05:11:21.240 Grandparents who saw their grandchildren suffering from the shortfalls of our economy.

05:11:27.360 And countless others who were afraid to go outside because of the rising wave of crime.

05:11:32.780 All of these stories touched my heart and gave me inspiration to work towards something better.

05:11:41.400 These people continue to need voices, and I will continue to fight for them every day and every day.

05:11:48.880 We will never give up on fighting for the Canadian people.

05:11:57.980 Thank you.

05:11:58.940 we hear your stories we will carry those stories with us into parliament

05:12:05.320 you will not forget the people for whom we work and for whom we fight every day

05:12:10.660 now i know that some of you might be disappointed that change did not get over the finish line

05:12:16.040 tonight change takes time most of all it requires that we never give up because our people and our

05:12:24.880 country are worth fighting for.

05:12:34.880 I heard you and brought your stories with me throughout this campaign.

05:12:40.880 And your stories will remain with me when I fight with my conservative team

05:12:46.880 to defend you and to advance your interests.

05:12:51.880 I will never give up on fighting for everyone who stood with us today and the millions of

05:13:17.000 people who voted for other parties.

05:13:19.700 So my message tonight for the single mother working two jobs but still has an empty fridge 0.96

05:13:28.740 and an empty bank account, for the young people who despair at never being able to afford a home,

05:13:34.980 for the seniors on fixed incomes whose savings are eroded by inflation and no longer feel safe

05:13:41.300 in their local neighbourhood parks, for those who are now living in fear and terror because of crime,

05:13:48.180 for those worried about losing their jobs because of unacceptable tariffs from the United States of

05:13:53.300 America, for all of those who feel left behind and forgotten, my message is one of hope. Change will

05:14:00.420 take time, but we will fight for that change and we will deliver that change and we will never

05:14:06.340 give up on fighting for the great Canadian promise that anyone from anywhere can achieve anything.

05:14:13.060 This hard work gets you a great life in a beautiful house on a safe street protected by our brave troops under our proud flag.

05:14:24.060 Canada first. Canada always. Let's bring it home. Thank you very much, Canada.

05:14:29.320 Merci beaucoup, Canada.

05:14:43.060 Thank you, everyone. Welcome. I'm Rick Perkins, the Conservative candidate in South Shore St. Margaret's and the Member of Parliament for that writing.

05:14:54.640 I'm not sure what we are listening to. Come on, production. Turn that off.

05:15:00.860 Okay. Well, we're back to Dr. Ted Morton. I hope to God we have a little more time before Mark Carney comes to interrupt us again.

05:15:12.320 When he comes, I'm leaving.

05:15:15.000 Okay.

05:15:17.380 God's sign that you're just not meant to get to complete a full thought on the program.

05:15:22.000 I have a question for you.

05:15:24.120 Can your numbers guy break down the – how many conservative MPs are elected, 146?

05:15:33.760 The number we're seeing is 148.

05:15:36.020 148, right.

05:15:36.940 Leading or elected at 148.

05:15:38.540 I'd like to know how many are from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and how many are Alberta, Saskatchewan, and BC, and how many are from the rest of Canada.

05:15:47.220 Do you want the, do you say Manitoba, too, or no?

05:15:50.500 No.

05:15:51.380 Okay.

05:15:52.680 The West ends at Selkirk to attend.

05:15:58.840 All right.

05:16:00.480 So, sorry, I want you to maybe just complete the thought that got interrupted that I asked you right before Polyev came on.

05:16:08.540 does the independence movement move uh from the fringe to the mainstream as a as a real thing

05:16:15.980 tomorrow morning yeah it's going to definitely move a few more degrees and then how how fast

05:16:21.180 and how far it moves depends on a number of things the big one will be uh whether or not

05:16:26.180 carney delivers on his on his commitments to uh to undo a lot of the uh trudeau liberal uh damage

05:16:37.140 on the energy sector.

05:16:40.980 I think Daniel Premier-Smith has done a good job

05:16:44.460 of laying out her 11 conditions or so

05:16:47.180 that she's demanding that be addressed.

05:16:50.560 We'll see what he does on that.

05:16:52.440 She has the Sovereignty Act already enacted,

05:16:56.440 and she has already started motion

05:16:59.840 or movement on a number of the Alberta agenda items,

05:17:04.280 policing tax collection uh pension those should move forward too and uh i think i think you give

05:17:14.600 carney or i think she should give carney albertans should give carney western canadians should give

05:17:19.580 carney uh the rest of the year what is that eight more months to see is he gonna is he gonna work

05:17:27.200 for all of canada or is he gonna continue what he's done for the last decade and a half and try

05:17:31.780 shut down the oil and gas industry if he does that it might help him win an election because

05:17:36.740 it'll break the federal conservative party in half but it'll send uh western separatism

05:17:44.420 western disillusionment through the uh through the ceiling so uh i think to begin with uh smith

05:17:51.940 mo uh people should say you've made these commitments here's what the premier of alberta

05:17:57.780 has asked uh let's see you do it let's we want to see action not talk personally i'm sort of

05:18:03.780 skeptical that he'll do that and i also worry that he won't do it because by not doing it if

05:18:08.740 he continues down his uh green dream path uh it electorally politically that might be the winning

05:18:16.100 path because then it would sure as hell you're going to get a a block a block west and many get

05:18:22.020 a block west and the liberals win yeah so we're looking if we look at the map now there's actually

05:18:29.220 kind of a path to get our product to market if uh the polls end up playing out how we see

05:18:36.260 so i didn't think that that was going to be possible i thought we were going to get more

05:18:40.740 just the interiors oh yeah look at that um and so maybe break this down because there's we were

05:18:47.460 talking earlier on the show about the demands and he has said to premier smith that he was going to

05:18:54.420 repeal c69 then he said that he wasn't going to so i think it's like what are you expecting him

05:19:01.940 to actually say and come out and commit to that would maybe diffuse some independence

05:19:10.740 versus giving us the you know all the nine demands

05:19:13.380 well i think he better give us more than just one or two uh because if he doesn't uh there's

05:19:21.060 going to be no investment in western canadian oil and gas repercussions uh in the potash and

05:19:27.860 the agricultural sector everything and uh that will push that will push alienation and uh

05:19:36.340 dissatisfaction with the status quo higher and the minute it gets to a certain point so i think

05:19:43.840 we should strongly resist a supporting a new western separatist party now but i i i i'm i'm

05:19:52.860 i guess i've been in politics long enough and i i see the dark side and i'm very concerned that

05:19:59.120 he'll purposely try to push western canada out with uh with the policies he spent his whole life

05:20:04.820 uh supporting and if that happens then uh the issue of western western separation will be just

05:20:13.940 as well frankly everybody in your room western canada could do a lot better as an independent

05:20:20.100 nation than quebec could because we have we have what the world needs but i mean if this is going

05:20:27.140 to happen don't we need to begin an artist while the spark is lit i mean if if if we just wait eight

05:20:33.620 months so you know i mean we kind of lose them the spark that lights the fire i i i think uh

05:20:42.100 eight months goes by real fast and if he doesn't deliver it and plus uh if he wants to get

05:20:48.340 investment coming back into canada uh he has to start moving at eight months in politics is eight

05:20:56.020 days uh yeah but i i would challenge you on the fact that i have received texts i'm a saskatchewan

05:21:03.860 girl i have friends that live in bc i don't know if anyone else's phones are starting to go off of

05:21:09.700 like do we need to move to alberta what does this look like and if i'm getting those types of things

05:21:15.700 i think there's probably a lot of frustration out there and a lot of people looking for a solution

05:21:23.460 now now i you and i have been in poly like we all have and for a long time that you don't want to

05:21:28.500 just act on sentiment or emotion but i think that carney can make a pretty quick like he's going to

05:21:37.220 have to make a decision in which lane he's going to play in uh pretty quick that i think you know

05:21:43.700 the discussions are going to happen how do they take the right narrative about what even could

05:21:48.660 this look like and then also play out his scenarios like i just i i want to challenge the

05:21:55.860 eight months because he's gonna have to i think alberta saskatchewan or western canada is going

05:22:01.380 to be like okay look at this map like something's wrong here what are you gonna do that's why that's

05:22:08.020 why i asked for the breakdown between the federal mps yeah that's what we've got him now sean's got

05:22:15.620 these numbers let's bring him on but there's a lot of blue on that map you know i say happily

05:22:24.580 all right you can't bring him in you took that one out

05:22:35.380 okay well basically what happened was in bc service went from 17 to 26 so that's just

05:22:41.140 Just give us the high level.

05:22:43.340 9, Alberta 34-34, SAS 13-13, Manicova 7 versus 7, Ontario 72 versus 45, net gain of almost 27 seats.

05:22:56.680 Okay.

05:22:57.240 Even in Quebec, 11 versus 10.

05:22:59.380 So how many seats are in the West versus the East?

05:23:01.580 That's the question.

05:23:03.120 West versus the East. 0.73

05:23:04.100 That's what we want to know.

05:23:04.900 Conservative seats in the West, conservative seats in the East.

05:23:07.100 Yeah, that's what I'm giving you, conservative seats. 0.61

05:23:08.720 Yeah, but you're...

05:23:09.260 So he's seen 26 seats versus 17 last time.

05:23:13.100 Okay.

05:23:13.400 I don't want the breakdown.

05:23:14.460 It's just total.

05:23:15.540 The East versus the West. 0.95

05:23:17.380 Yeah.

05:23:17.880 Okay.

05:23:18.440 All right.

05:23:18.880 He'll be back soon.

05:23:21.580 All right.

05:23:24.160 Okay.

05:23:24.660 Before we bring in Mike Solberg here,

05:23:29.220 did you guys have anything else for Dr. Morton before we bring in Mike

05:23:32.440 Solberg?

05:23:33.380 Not yet.

05:23:34.840 Good to see you.

05:23:35.760 All right.

05:23:37.040 Dr. Morton,

05:23:37.700 I think we're going to have a lot to talk about.

05:23:42.340 There's going to be a lot to talk about and a lot to do in the next eight months.

05:23:47.520 And in the next eight hours, in the next eight days, in the next eight weeks.

05:23:52.340 Yeah.

05:23:52.840 I'm just warming up.

05:23:53.780 I think that the budding new coalition between the Liberals and the Bloc de Vecroix

05:23:58.740 is only going to grist the mail.

05:24:02.480 Thank you very much, Dr. Morton, for joining us tonight and sharing your insights.

05:24:06.260 Good night.

05:24:06.880 You're welcome.

05:24:07.700 all right we're gonna bring in uh mike solberg now mike solberg is a uh political uh well he

05:24:16.280 works in public relations uh government relations partner in a company you're very bad at that

05:24:21.220 partner in uf public affairs sorry i'm just not good at plugging here and they also they also

05:24:26.180 actually just launched a communication branch that mike i think you should tell people about

05:24:30.480 yeah well thank you erica yeah i i also had a creative and digital agency

05:24:37.460 called shift media strategies which i run with a couple of partners as well but no happy to be on

05:24:42.020 guys thank you for having me um okay so i want to actually pick up where we were just finishing

05:24:47.940 there with dr morton uh the ndp is gone they're finished uh they'll be back someday but it could

05:24:55.300 be a while uh there are only three uh there are technically three configurations parliament could

05:25:03.620 take the liberals with the conservatives unlikely but technically it could happen yeah the liberals

05:25:10.240 with the bloc or i guess the conservatives technically with the bloc would also form a

05:25:15.180 majority as well uh the most likely configuration i think we're going to see is the liberals governing

05:25:19.980 uh maybe not with a formal agreement supplying confidence agreement the way they had with the

05:25:26.020 ndp but probably on a case-by-case basis with the bloc québécois that seems to be the most likely

05:25:31.260 scenario um well i don't know so the liberals go ahead well i don't know if i agree with that

05:25:37.900 necessarily phil the uh you know the we still have advanced polls to count here uh a leading elected

05:25:45.020 with the ndp the liberals have a workable majority as well so the do they can be part of it just

05:25:50.540 jump to the point the liberals gain more seats so actually as long as everybody stays on the

05:25:55.420 same page they could pull off 172 exactly yeah okay very shaky i mean it's like we said

05:26:04.140 then they got one seat buffer yeah the price the price to pay with working with the ndp would be a

05:26:09.580 lot lower than the deal that mark carney would have to strike with the block i think yeah uh

05:26:15.420 so if they can work with the ndp uh leading in a lot they're leading in looking seven i don't know

05:26:21.500 Maybe, maybe a bare, bare agreement.

05:26:24.680 Top seven, maybe a hard four.

05:26:26.820 Yeah.

05:26:27.320 And then you probably need to throw in the Greens on top of that.

05:26:30.520 That comes with an enormously high price there,

05:26:34.800 where the Greens literally kind of hold a balance of power in the House of Commons.

05:26:38.280 That would be absolutely mad.

05:26:40.720 So, I mean, there are two, okay, maybe two scenarios.

05:26:43.860 The NDP plus the Greens, to give yourself a one-seat margin.

05:26:48.300 Oh, sorry, the Liberals plus the NDP and Greens.

05:26:50.080 or Liberals with the Bloc Québécois.

05:26:53.140 Which of these scenarios does not result in revolution in Alberta?

05:26:58.000 No, I think we're headed for some significant Western angst, 0.84

05:27:03.060 significant malcontent, I think,

05:27:05.360 regardless of kind of the options that Mark Kearney has here to try and survive.

05:27:11.120 I mean, of course, he'll be given the opportunity to form and govern.

05:27:15.900 But if he wants to govern with any kind of stability, you're absolutely right.

05:27:19.080 is going to need to to work with one of the opposition parties and it certainly won't be

05:27:23.080 the conservatives so um no i i don't know if there is a great uh scenario here for alberta and for

05:27:29.720 the west um but i think the most likely scenario here uh well if if the the trend continues here

05:27:37.400 will be to work with the new democrats um and form a very very tenuous parliament uh here um i i

05:27:44.680 I think regardless of kind of what shakes out the next couple of weeks in terms of kind of deal making, we're probably headed back to the polls here in as few as 12 months and probably closer to 18.

05:27:55.920 But this war is not over.

05:27:57.880 I think that this was a major battle in that war.

05:28:01.540 But I think the war will continue. 0.55

05:28:03.920 Well, I mean, this is the color of the map across Canada.

05:28:10.220 There's going to be people who have given up on the federal war and they're going to introvert.

05:28:14.680 The strength that Polyev drew from on the prairies, it's going to be hard to motivate them again.

05:28:21.140 And I understand that that's not the ones that they need to make a difference in the election.

05:28:24.480 And that's the problem.

05:28:28.500 There's going to be a lot of complications from this election.

05:28:32.160 And we're going to see it provincially, too.

05:28:33.660 Premier Smith is going to have her hands full because there's going to be a lot of people calling now for a heck of a lot more provincial, federal battling.

05:28:42.740 And that puts, again, Polyev on the spot.

05:28:44.680 because are you going to be supporting smith as she's making more demands of the federal government

05:28:49.040 or distancing alberta from it which again would just it's just an ugly scenario all around it

05:28:54.480 that there's going to be a heck of a lot of thought to have to go into the next couple of weeks

05:28:57.660 for sure we're definitely we're definitely seeing a fractured country uh and and the you know and

05:29:05.700 you know what i'm going to be doing in the next few weeks oh yeah sorry uh how did i get the only

05:29:10.640 frickin' liberal seat. 0.93

05:29:13.060 Yeah, that's your fault. 0.95

05:29:15.540 Okay, actually, Mike,

05:29:16.740 hopefully you can stay with us. Mark Carney is coming on

05:29:18.700 right now. We're going to go to him.

05:29:20.960 Hopefully you're still here when we get

05:29:22.700 back. You bet.

05:29:23.640 Let's do this again.

05:29:32.400 Have we got Mark Carney?

05:29:37.460 Is Mark Carney ready to go?

05:29:38.840 He's working on it.

05:29:40.640 I hope that you now have come to appreciate that alongside his capacity for dealing with

05:30:03.640 the most serious of matters, there's a great line for trivia, a wicked glance of humor,

05:30:08.640 and a wonderful smile he's been that that way since our very first date that when we were

05:30:17.920 young grad students when we went to that dinner and he said to me he stopped the conversation

05:30:25.280 and he said to me i want you to know i'm committed to move back to canada and to work in the public

05:30:31.920 service so here we as his partner I could not be more proud of him and as a

05:30:44.340 Canadian I'm so thankful that the man I met more than 30 years ago has held

05:30:50.280 tight to that strong commitment the service I'm lucky to have him we're

05:30:55.260 lucky to have him now more than ever without further ado it's my great

05:31:00.600 pleasure to introduce my husband, the Prime Minister who will make Canada strong, and

05:31:30.600 That is Nepean, that is the spirit of Nepean behind me right there.

05:31:50.600 I have a question, who's ready, who's ready to stand up for Canada with me?

05:32:18.040 who's ready? Who's ready to build Canada strong? Okay, we got that settled. That's good.

05:32:28.040 Before we start, I would like to congratulate the other members of the party, of their campaign,

05:32:36.040 and all the work they have done. I would like to thank them for their service to Canada

05:32:43.040 I want to thank the leaders of the other parties.

05:32:52.200 I want to salute the contribution of Jagmeet Singh, leading on progressive values.

05:33:03.240 Elizabeth May, who will be returning, and Francois Blanchet.

05:33:09.580 And I want to congratulate him on a hard-fought, fair, good campaign, his commitment to the

05:33:14.040 country that we both love.

05:33:21.340 They all have many, many more contributions to our land.

05:33:25.620 Thank you, Diana.

05:33:26.900 Thank you, Diana, for your work on this campaign.

05:33:33.240 Thank you, Diana, for the commitment and compassion you bring to everything that you do.

05:33:40.340 Tonight simply would not have been possible without you and without the support of our

05:33:47.240 four children who inspire me to service every single day.

05:33:56.940 I also want to salute the women and men who put their name on the ballot from all parties.

05:34:04.400 Thank you for standing up to serve our country at this critical time.

05:34:10.020 And for those who were elected, particularly those Liberals who were elected, I am looking

05:34:18.000 forward to working together to deliver for Canadians.

05:34:22.380 Bruce, I'm Bruce, yes, Bruce Vandreau.

05:34:27.380 I'm looking forward to working with Bruce Vandreau.

05:34:34.380 Fantastic.

05:34:35.380 He is a great, he will be a great MP.

05:34:38.380 We're going to have fun tonight.

05:34:40.380 Yes, we're going to have fun.

05:34:42.380 Bien sûr, je tiens à remercier les milliers de bénévoles

05:34:47.380 here tonight and across the country who have given their time to fight for the port, to

05:34:54.380 make calls, to exchange with their neighbors and members of their community, to give us

05:35:04.380 a strong government.

05:35:08.380 You know, I chose to enter politics because I felt we needed big changes in this country,

05:35:19.740 but big changes guided by strong Canadian values.

05:35:25.380 Values that I learned at the dinner table from my parents, Bob and Burleigh, and from

05:35:29.740 my siblings.

05:35:30.740 I appreciate this more in retrospect from my siblings, Brenda, Sean, and Brian.

05:35:38.100 Values that I learned on the ice from my coaches.

05:35:41.780 Values that have been reinforced as I've met with Canadians across this great country.

05:35:49.120 And those include three values that I want to highlight this evening.

05:35:52.860 Humility.

05:35:53.860 It's Canada after all.

05:35:56.020 Ambition.

05:35:57.020 It's Canada after all.

05:35:58.800 And unity.

05:35:59.800 It's Canada.

05:36:00.800 I love you.

05:36:01.800 Right back.

05:36:02.800 Right back.

05:36:03.800 I love you. Right back. Right back. These are good values. These are Canadian values.

05:36:14.380 Values that I will do my best. I'm just getting worked up here. These are values that I will

05:36:19.360 do my best to uphold every day as your prime minister. You betcha.

05:36:27.720 Okay, well, you have to judge after this next section, because I am going to begin.

05:36:33.840 I am going to begin with the value of humility, and by admitting that I have much to be humble

05:36:40.280 about.

05:36:41.280 That's true.

05:36:42.760 Over my long—that's not an applause line, it's just a statement of fact.

05:36:48.020 Over my long career, I have made many mistakes, and I will make more.

05:36:55.920 I commit to admitting them openly, to correcting them quickly, and always learning from them.

05:37:07.920 Humility underscores the importance of governing as a team in Cabinet and in caucus,

05:37:15.920 and working constructively with all parties across Parliament.

05:37:20.560 of working in partnership with the provinces and the territories and with Indigenous peoples.

05:37:31.040 And at this time, it underscores the value of bringing together labour, business, civil society

05:37:36.640 to advance the nation-building investments we need to transform our economy.

05:37:43.120 Humility is also about recognizing that one of the responsibilities of government

05:37:50.560 is to prepare for the worst not hope for the best

05:37:55.440 as i've been warned america wants our land our resources

05:38:01.680 our water our country

05:38:06.000 never but these are not these are not idle threats

05:38:11.600 president trump is trying to break us so that america

05:38:16.240 can own us that will never that will never ever happen but we

05:38:26.640 but we also must recognize the reality that our world has fundamentally changed

05:38:35.600 there is also for me as i stand before you this evening humility in recognizing that well many

05:38:43.440 Many have chosen to place your trust in me, trust in the Liberal Party.

05:38:50.480 Millions of our fellow citizens preferred a different outcome.

05:38:55.500 And my message to every Canadian is this, no matter where you live, no matter what language

05:39:01.040 you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who

05:39:07.240 who calls Canada home.

05:39:15.000 You know, during this short campaign, I went to Saskatchewan and Alberta a couple of times.

05:39:23.420 Even though, you know, we're Liberals, it's tough out there, I grew up there.

05:39:29.140 But I went because I intend to govern for all Canadians.

05:39:34.740 And at the core of this campaign, the Québécois and Québécoises have opened their doors,

05:39:42.500 have given me their confidence.

05:39:45.220 I am deeply touched on it, and I thank you very much.

05:39:50.500 The French language, the French culture, is at the core of the Canadian identity.

05:40:03.220 They define the country that I don't like, and I will defend them without a relief.

05:40:17.820 With the strong team of Quebec candidates that you have just sent to Ottawa, we will

05:40:25.460 We want to make sure Quebec will continue to prosper within Canada.

05:40:37.460 And that you are a worker of the sable bitumineux at Fort Mac, an infirmary of Joliet, or a comptable

05:40:46.460 to Toronto.

05:40:47.880 You have to do your contact at Toronto.

05:40:50.980 Mon gouvernement

05:40:51.640 va travailler pour vous tous.

05:40:55.420 So,

05:40:56.540 as we come here

05:40:57.820 after this consequential,

05:41:00.860 most consequential election,

05:41:02.940 let's put an end.

05:41:04.300 Let's put an end to the division

05:41:06.260 and anger of the past.

05:41:11.000 We are all

05:41:12.440 Canadian, and my government will work

05:41:14.400 for and with everyone.

05:41:16.460 I began with humility, but Canadians are ambitious.

05:41:29.440 And now, more than ever, it is a time for ambition.

05:41:32.980 It is a time to be bold, to meet this crisis with overwhelming positive force of a united

05:41:39.800 Canada. Because we, we are going to build. Build, baby, build.

05:41:53.240 Exactly. Throughout, well, no, we're building now. We've gotten over that bit.

05:42:04.600 Throughout, throughout our history, there have been turning points. Throughout our

05:42:09.000 history there have been turning points when the world's fortunes were in the

05:42:11.940 balance. That was at this that was the case at the start of the Second World

05:42:16.680 War just as it was at the end of the Cold War. And each time Canada chose to

05:42:23.340 step up to assert ourselves as a free sovereign and ambitious nation to lead

05:42:29.860 the path of democracy and freedom and because we are Canadian to do so with

05:42:37.000 compassion and generosity we are we are once again we are once again at one of

05:42:47.080 those hinge moments of history our old relationship with the United States a

05:42:52.000 relationship based on steadily increasing integration is over the

05:42:58.780 system of open global trade anchored by the United States a system that Canada

05:43:05.380 has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped

05:43:11.600 deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over.

05:43:19.500 But it's also our new reality.

05:43:22.940 We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons.

05:43:33.280 We have to look out for ourselves, and above all, we have to take care of each other.

05:43:49.800 When I sit down with President Trump, it will be to discuss the future economic and security

05:43:56.320 relationship between two sovereign nations.

05:44:04.420 And it will be with our full knowledge that we have many, many other options than the

05:44:12.220 United States to build prosperity for all Canadians.

05:44:16.700 Nous allons renforcer nos relations avec des partenaires fiables en Europe, en Asie

05:44:27.140 et ailleurs.

05:44:28.140 Et si les États-Unis ne veulent plus jouer un rôle de premier plan dans l'économie

05:44:34.860 mondiale, le Canada le fera.

05:44:38.560 We will leave North America.

05:44:42.100 Nous sommes mètre chez nous.

05:44:44.600 Nous allons bâtir des millions de logements, une superpuissance énergétique, de bonnes

05:44:50.920 carrières dans les emplois spécialisés, et une seule économie canadienne patrèce.

05:44:57.620 We will chart a new path forward.

05:45:00.760 Because this is Canada, and we decide what happens here.

05:45:13.440 We will need to think big and act bigger.

05:45:18.440 Your phone's ringing.

05:45:23.440 All right.

05:45:24.440 Just hang on.

05:45:25.440 It's okay?

05:45:26.440 Yeah, okay.

05:45:28.440 It might be important.

05:45:34.440 We will need to do things previously thought impossible

05:45:38.440 at speeds we haven't seen in generations.

05:45:42.440 It's time to build twice as many homes every year with an entirely new housing industry

05:45:48.200 using Canadian technology, Canadian skilled workers, Canadian lumber.

05:45:58.140 It's time to build new trade and energy corridors working in partnership with the provinces,

05:46:03.680 territories and Indigenous peoples.

05:46:09.560 It's time to build hundreds of thousands of, not just good jobs, but good careers in the

05:46:15.960 skilled trades.

05:46:19.360 It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional

05:46:23.680 energy.

05:46:26.320 And it's time to build an industrial strategy that makes Canada more competitive while fighting

05:46:32.240 climate change.

05:46:38.360 We will build a Canadian economy, not 13, with a government committed to free trade

05:46:43.260 in Canada by Canada Day.

05:46:47.840 The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away.

05:46:58.000 But even given that, I want to be clear.

05:47:00.640 The coming days and months will be challenging, and they will call for some sacrifices.

05:47:07.460 But we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses.

05:47:13.800 The challenges in front of us are intimidating, and it's normal.

05:47:20.140 The big changes, like those that we live in, are always worrying.

05:47:27.140 We have a lot of paths to do, but I have confidence.

05:47:31.220 I have confidence in you.

05:47:33.060 I have confidence in Canada.

05:47:37.460 Because Canada is more than a nation.

05:47:43.860 We are and we always will be a confederation.

05:47:47.600 A sacred set of ideas and ideals built on practical foundations.

05:47:53.360 That we know we're not always perfect, but we always strive to be good.

05:47:59.780 We do things because they're right, not because they're easy.

05:48:06.300 we see kindness as a virtue not as a weakness most importantly we know that our strength lies

05:48:13.980 in our resolve to work together as a country it relies on our unity you know on the second day of

05:48:21.660 this campaign i went to gander we're nine where on 9 11 they welcomed thousands of passengers

05:48:29.180 into their homes without question or hesitation i sat down with two of the many heroes of the time

05:48:36.300 Diane Davis and Beulah Cooper.

05:48:39.140 And during our conversation, they showed me a thank you card

05:48:42.300 that they'd received from a young girl called Ellie,

05:48:45.260 who wrote,

05:48:46.600 your kindness motivates me to use my kindness.

05:48:52.440 That touching phrase captures

05:48:55.500 what Canadians instinctively know,

05:48:58.600 that virtue is like a muscle that grows with its exercise.

05:49:03.900 We become just by doing just acts,

05:49:06.300 brave by doing brave acts when we are kind kindness grows when we seek unity unity grows

05:49:14.620 when we are canadian canada grows

05:49:24.300 and united united our history we have done hard seemingly impossible things

05:49:31.900 united we have built one nation in harsh conditions

05:49:36.300 despite a sometimes hostile neighbor.

05:49:39.640 Yes, they have forum on this, the Americans.

05:49:42.440 United, we have confronted our own past

05:49:45.740 with indigenous peoples.

05:49:47.940 Uni, nous avons bâti un pays qui rassemble des langues,

05:49:51.840 des cultures et des croyances différentes.

05:49:55.660 Uni, nous avons bâti des institutions culturelles essentielles

05:50:00.700 comme CBC Radio-Canada.

05:50:06.300 United, United we have created universal public health care and now, and now in the face of

05:50:15.500 this crisis, United we are buying Canadian.

05:50:18.340 We are exploring everything this country has to offer.

05:50:20.860 We are supporting our friends and neighbours in the crosshairs of President Trump through

05:50:25.780 a crisis that we did not create.

05:50:28.920 United we have to build the strongest economy in the G7, an economy that works for everyone.

05:50:36.060 We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal for Canada.

05:51:06.060 We will protect our workers and businesses.

05:51:10.420 And above all, we will build an independent future for our great country.

05:51:16.460 A future that makes the greatest country on the earth even better.

05:51:21.460 Together, we will build a Canada worthy of our values.

05:51:24.860 We will build Canada strong, Canada free, Canada forever.

05:51:30.340 Vive le Canada. Thank you very much. Merci beaucoup.

05:51:36.060 we call him he's prime minister uh did mention the word pipeline once he didn't say things like uh

05:51:59.820 energy corridors uh he did he did say con clean and conventional energy that's the closest he

05:52:06.220 came to which no one applauded yeah yeah a lot of applause for everything he was saying isn't that

05:52:12.940 yeah uh just couldn't say it like it was voldemort um uh nigel your uh your impression 0.93

05:52:22.140 of carney speech you mean the ai uh generated uh collection of the bot whatever bot was just

05:52:31.660 i mean there's a when you're making a victory speech there's a certain time you have to take

05:52:36.140 and you say nice things and things that are going to please your supporters but that was a bit heavy

05:52:40.860 that was that was hard to take um you know i was just looking at um just looking at truth social

05:52:48.140 president trump's thing right as carney was uh mr carney oh mr carney right as he was talking

05:52:55.260 about all the good things that uh they were going to do i don't know how they're going to do them

05:53:00.700 uh trump was saying it just got five trillion dollars worth of investment

05:53:05.420 announced in the united states 465 000 jobs we don't have the ability to do that kind of thing

05:53:12.380 but i'm not too sure that we have the ability to do even a tenth of that and then he moved on to

05:53:18.460 talk about the sacrifices and then i thought about the butter that's ten dollars a pound that's going

05:53:26.780 to be eleven dollars a pound and the gasoline they won't call it carbon tax but they'll make

05:53:31.980 it more expensive yeah there'll be sacrifices and all this uh purple prose is going to seem very

05:53:39.980 get adequate just give it a month so uh very soon we're gonna go to jen hodgson uh a reporter who

05:53:47.420 we have at uh i think what looks like probably pier polio's headquarters as soon as she gets 0.95

05:53:53.420 her camera right there i've seen her fiddling with it for hours i'm not sure when it will

05:53:58.060 work yeah yeah we're getting some blair witch vibes uh from there okay uh jen are you already

05:54:03.980 there uh hi yes i'm ready here and in fact i've been moving my camera around so that i can access

05:54:12.140 your texts and things like that i have been here the whole night i i'm aware but every time i look

05:54:18.540 down at your feet it looks like you're setting up your camera so that makes sense all right uh so

05:54:24.060 you're at uh polyevs headquarters yes i'm at polyevs headquarters we now have the cleaners coming

05:54:30.060 around and people picking up the chairs so we have nothing left to show you here tonight

05:54:36.220 we have been rather booked yeah yeah you're the last there uh yeah uh well we've had a lot of

05:54:43.100 guests we haven't had a lot of time to get our reporters in uh what was it like in the room

05:54:46.780 there tonight as paulia gave his concession yeah it was quite emotional near the end uh you could

05:54:52.380 see uh his wife anna on the stage she was visibly emotional uh proud uh his family paulia's family

05:54:59.820 was in the front row uh his mother was weeping um it was quite an emotional moment just because

05:55:07.020 of all the hard work that you could see that he put in uh over this past election campaign and

05:55:13.020 much longer than that too since he became the conservative leader in 2022 so a lot of mixed

05:55:19.180 emotions uh holly f put on a brave face got on the stage and uh and said you know we're not this

05:55:25.420 this isn't the end. We're not done working. We're going to keep going with all of the values that

05:55:30.040 we've put forward throughout this campaign. I mean, I guess, did you get a chance to talk

05:55:39.500 to many people in there? I know it's a real difficult time. It's a little premature. We

05:55:44.800 don't know if he's going to maintain his seat or if he isn't. But do you think there might be a

05:55:50.920 mood I mean for change I know they made gains they did well I mean when you crack down all those

05:55:55.640 numbers but really when you look at what people expected two months ago this was not what they

05:55:59.820 anticipated this this is not a victory for them tonight by any means yeah Corey you're right there

05:56:05.160 is definitely that sense of disappointment um as you mentioned the Carleton riding seat is still

05:56:12.280 up in the air so I think the last time I checked um it was maybe close to half the polls have been

05:56:19.660 submitted and poliev trailed by about five and a half percent so it's not looking great but also

05:56:27.820 there could be a lot of factors for that he very well still could pick up his riding he didn't

05:56:32.460 mention that in his speech but that is definitely something significant to look forward to hearing

05:56:38.140 about probably tomorrow now it's already tomorrow here in toronto in the toronto time zone here in

05:56:44.460 ottawa but uh we'll be able to get um a clear picture of what is happening in that carlton

05:56:51.100 writing i guess in the hours to come yeah did anyone mention something that we kind of flagged

05:56:57.740 earlier was that 44 000 votes were cast in that advanced poll and it's about 40 percent of the

05:57:06.300 total voter uh count for carlton so was there any talk on the ground that there was no sense of

05:57:12.620 worrying because of maybe some geo tv they had done around easter weekend yeah his supporters

05:57:19.900 still seemed confident that the seat belongs to him that he has that support in that riding so

05:57:25.180 among the supporters yes erica however among the other media there was a lot more skepticism

05:57:32.940 especially i spoke to one journalist who has focused specifically on the carlton riding and

05:57:39.740 she she was rather doubtful about how things are playing out we speculated about on those

05:57:46.060 advanced polls and it's not really known that uh liberal voters go out to vote in advance and

05:57:52.700 that's why those results are coming out already uh so it is it is a bit of uh it's a bit confounding

05:58:01.180 um and it's a bit of an upset really that he doesn't he hasn't secured his own writing the

05:58:07.500 the election night has come and is now gone there's you know chairs being set up taken

05:58:12.940 down behind me and the cleaners are going around and the journalists are unplugging all their

05:58:17.100 computers so it's really winding down here tonight and there's still that unknown factor

05:58:23.980 so i did not see that coming uh oh you know i just got a message from a buddy of mine he's

05:58:29.980 actually not very political but i guess somehow he ended up working as a poll counter for elections

05:58:35.100 canada uh he just said the they just finally finished the advanced bull counting that's

05:58:40.460 somewhere in calgary i want to find out what riding that was but uh because we've still got

05:58:45.420 calgary confederation is uh as a toss-up um and then um i meant it's under a stun oh what was

05:58:52.460 the other one you were thinking uh the other calgary one in the northeast uh portugal mcknight

05:58:58.140 yeah okay yeah uh conservatives are pulling up a bit there uh jen

05:59:05.500 i mean uh you're you're in carlton you're in polyam's riding he's gonna have a lot of fans

05:59:10.940 there um was did you get a sense of you know how genuine or not support was for him to continue on

05:59:18.860 as conservative leader yeah for sure actually derek it was very genuine when i was last night

05:59:25.660 at the carlton rally his last rally of his campaign it was held out at a farm in a rural

05:59:31.500 area in the carlton riding and i went around and spoke with many people in the crowd who

05:59:38.700 who said that they vehemently support polyev and you know many of them actually said that

05:59:43.740 they've watched him grow up that they've known him personally they've interacted at some level

05:59:50.620 and he's actually had widespread support um i've never really seen anything like it at the rally

05:59:56.380 last night uh the enthusiasm and just uh the heart the heart for what polyev is trying to accomplish

06:00:03.980 a lot of people said they were eager for that change that he's promising and young people i

06:00:09.260 spoke with several young people and some of them even still not old enough to vote but they're

06:00:14.460 already so involved i think uh we're getting our video compiled there so we can release it to our

06:00:20.300 viewers to see what the people of that writing actually are saying uh because there's a lot of

06:00:26.220 faith in what polyev is going for so that is actually another reason why i'm a bit confounded

06:00:33.740 that he hasn't secured his seat in his own writing now notable notably about that is that there were

06:00:40.140 91 candidates on that ballot which is just absurd well yes that is that is exactly

06:00:52.460 that's right that that is why it's taking so long and so you can ask oh is it just a coincidence

06:00:58.220 that there's that many names on the ballot or is there some kind of agenda or angle happening there

06:01:04.940 but yes that is why it's taking such an absurd amount of time and i've been told that the carlton

06:01:11.660 riding they started counting that in advance for that they got special permission for that

06:01:16.860 specific reason is because there are so many on the ballot yeah you can by rules i think it's an

06:01:23.180 hour two hours you can start two hours of advanced polls counting before that but even that i can't

06:01:31.020 imagine it's going to be an easy like task for anyone it's a lot to go through staffers are

06:01:38.860 earning their money tonight that's right or maybe they're the volunteers i don't know

06:01:43.900 but whoever is doing that hard work yeah it definitely wouldn't be an easy task

06:01:51.900 um all right uh anything else you've got for us from uh poly upset quarters there

06:01:57.180 Yeah, just the mood in the room when Paliyev was giving his speech, it did tug on the heartstrings a little bit just because you saw all the hard work that went into it.

06:02:07.680 But there is still a hope for what's next, which is difficult given the fact that the riding is still up in question.

06:02:15.340 So there's just a lot of factors that went into the mood in this room.

06:02:20.800 At the beginning, it was very energetic.

06:02:24.240 uh there were cheers that went out whenever um a candidate uh won the seat and they got that

06:02:32.360 check mark right because uh you see as the votes are being counted um it's projected winners of

06:02:38.960 the ridings but then when they got the check mark like jamil javani uh in the durham riding he got

06:02:44.960 his check mark i got a quick story up about that because he really just ripped into ontario premier

06:02:50.820 doug ford for supporting liberals basically three minutes of him crapping on doug ford

06:02:57.620 i think it was brilliant it was yeah it really got a lot of attention in the room especially

06:03:02.660 among the reporters over at the media desk yeah so definitely a notable evening right

06:03:09.140 that's right yeah and the cbc and the cbc pundit said oh well you worked with him as though like

06:03:14.420 why should you be criticizing him yeah and jivani said yeah i know i have first-hand experience

06:03:21.700 okay all right uh that's jen hodgson the western standard reporter that we have exiled to ontario

06:03:26.980 for the duration of the campaign thank you for your good work uh thank you let me go get some

06:03:31.620 oh you gotta file a story maybe but then you gotta get some sleep it's two o'clock in the morning

06:03:35.140 where you are already filed my story then sleep sleep it is all right all right thanks for having

06:03:42.820 me on everyone all right uh just a little update so my friend who was counting advanced uh advanced

06:03:49.620 polls that was calgary center uh so that's just been counted so those will probably start to show

06:03:55.220 up in the database pretty soon congress center uh conservative greg mclean still got a

06:04:00.660 five point lead so looking good for him could go sideways but looking good calgary mcknight uh

06:04:07.300 with George

06:04:09.520 Javall. That's a good spread.

06:04:11.320 It's a pretty good spread. For nine

06:04:13.240 polls, or 11 polls left.

06:04:15.040 Yeah, that one's not a lock for the Conservatives yet.

06:04:17.560 Looking good. It's probably advanced.

06:04:19.420 Yeah. Calgary Confederation,

06:04:22.160 1.9%

06:04:24.860 1.1%

06:04:27.900 separates Conservative

06:04:29.140 Jerry Monix and from Liberal

06:04:30.960 Corey Holcomb. So who's got the upper hand?

06:04:33.460 Corey Holcomb. Yeah.

06:04:35.100 Yeah, they tend to do better than the advanced polls

06:04:37.060 too. So it doesn't look good. And special ballots. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll see. We'll see the way that

06:04:43.780 goes. Do they even live in Confederation? I do. Okay. So you have another liberal like we can

06:04:49.780 complain to each other. Yeah. And Pierre Polyev is closing the gap. Three percentage points behind

06:04:56.980 liberal Bruce Fanjoy now. There's not been new polls coming in for a while now though.

06:05:03.580 like that's well in that writing that did those clowns did that long ballot crap so i mean yeah 1.00

06:05:08.940 counting votes when you got 90 names on yeah because of those idiots it's it's gonna make 1.00

06:05:13.980 it grandma's putting her glasses on going through them all and the confederation uh 1.00

06:05:18.220 the liberal leader was actually running against you know all the literature was against uh

06:05:26.860 i hope she's right sovereignty sovereignty yeah independence okay well uh we don't know

06:05:37.100 pauliev's uh we don't know paulio's writing but we have a pretty good idea of pretty much everything

06:05:44.620 uh the liberals will at most likely take two seats in alberta uh they had much much higher hopes for

06:05:53.420 alberta and what were they deeming six seven yeah uh some love that guy though they were talking up

06:05:59.340 to eight uh some liberals were saying uh publicly they're they were saying uh they had a real

06:06:04.700 realistic chance at eight they have one for sure possibly two that's it and one ndp and one ndp uh

06:06:13.580 NDP was at two.

06:06:15.320 In Edmonton, they're down to one.

06:06:19.560 Saskatchewan, total conservative sweep, except for the Churchill.

06:06:23.500 It's like such a big red thing, though.

06:06:25.220 Yeah.

06:06:25.500 Yeah.

06:06:26.180 Yeah, really.

06:06:26.820 Here, I'll show the map.

06:06:28.460 Thanks, Northern Saskatchewan, for, like, messing with the map.

06:06:31.100 Yeah.

06:06:31.360 I like nice, clean maps.

06:06:33.020 Yeah.

06:06:33.440 And you really mucked that one up.

06:06:35.540 Thanks a lot, Northern Saskatchewan.

06:06:37.960 That's a weird writing.

06:06:38.880 Like, so few voters actually there.

06:06:41.660 But, you know, writings of that massive geography, you give some a lot of that.

06:06:47.720 Yeah.

06:06:48.160 And then I guess Churchill here, that's always been a Nikki Ashton, long time NDP MP.

06:06:57.780 It hasn't been called yet.

06:06:59.000 I don't know how that's not called.

06:07:00.040 No, I don't know.

06:07:00.580 140 of 181 polls and the liberals.

06:07:03.400 So that's a liberal seat.

06:07:04.780 That's probably going liberal.

06:07:05.960 nikki ashton is long time ndp mp for the area likely going down she won't be missed yeah uh

06:07:16.040 so let's uh take out the map for a minute actually no the map back in i'm just going to show you all

06:07:22.120 toronto and ontario so uh conservatives picking up some ndp seats in uh in the northern ontario

06:07:30.760 like timmons area that is like ndp was religion up there that was blue collar union workers uh ndp

06:07:40.360 have fallen to 10 in timmons no no i'm okay with it like those are steel workers but weren't those

06:07:54.200 the ones that all endorsed yeah i was gonna say with the unions that endorse pierre i'm pretty

06:07:59.480 sure that that changes sudbury look at sudbury it's another one uh oh my god sudbury used to be

06:08:07.160 ndp northern ontario heartland ndp are eight percent that's the end of the ndp as a major

06:08:15.480 force in canadian politics when the ndp changed i mean those are labor writings those are union guys

06:08:20.520 these are lunchbox people who don't want to hear about a guy pretending to be a woman they're sick 0.96

06:08:26.280 of the woke crap too they want to wear they're worried about their jobs they're worried about 0.99

06:08:29.720 their mortgages feeding their family and for years the ndp that was their labor represented 1.00

06:08:35.560 representation was too busy off on these stupid social justice uh ndp uh jesus the ndp got a 0.97

06:08:42.200 single seat in ontario uh i'm not seeing it uh london they used to win seats around there gone 0.99

06:08:51.800 uh windsor all conservative uh london liberal and conservative hamilton center ndp in hamilton

06:09:06.680 center 28.8 percent that's steel town that's goddard dameron of the ndp that's the end

06:09:14.840 holy hell not a single ndp seat in toronto it's almost all liberal conservatives

06:09:21.280 pushed in on the margins you can see them uh kind of poking in but not obviously not getting there

06:09:29.700 not touching the water um they're gone i don't see single ndp where are the ndpc they're all in bc

06:09:38.100 Oh, oh my God. They kept that one in Montreal. That's okay. Well, I don't, I don't know Montreal politics. I can't, I can't explain that. Is that might be the only seat the NDP has in the East. All the other seats. There's one, one in Winnipeg Center, Winnipeg Center, Edmonton, Edmonton, Stratkona, and Island. Oh, there's one in.

06:10:08.100 Courtney Alberni

06:10:12.000 that one's still not secure though

06:10:14.840 they probably

06:10:16.940 hold it but I'd be not

06:10:17.780 and then one Vancouver East

06:10:19.920 whoever is Jenny Kwan

06:10:21.920 never heard of her

06:10:23.480 okay 1.00

06:10:25.320 she's a drug lover 1.00

06:10:28.580 okay

06:10:29.820 they're just all gone

06:10:33.400 but they came to us

06:10:37.420 mm-hmm well okay so uh let's talk about the governing scenarios here oh my god i thought

06:10:50.120 you're gonna say it's bedtime uh real soon but just um technically yeah they could work the

06:10:57.540 liberals could work with the conservatives that'd be a mega majority together of 312 seats

06:11:01.540 for about five minutes until the Alberta

06:11:03.720 and Saskatchewan MPs defect and

06:11:05.520 form an awesome block.

06:11:08.320 We would encourage them to do.

06:11:10.220 Yeah. They can work

06:11:11.420 and form a comfortable majority with the block.

06:11:14.080 That's 100. So you need 172

06:11:15.920 tweets. Based on his speech, that is

06:11:17.920 his play. Like, so

06:11:19.680 hard.

06:11:23.160 Oh, I thought

06:11:23.820 his speech about, like, if you were listening

06:11:25.780 to what he was saying in French.

06:11:28.520 Yeah.

06:11:28.800 then he has two realistic options block or ndp or ndp with elizabeth may uh because you need

06:11:42.080 it there's a third option he goes it alone and just does it on a case-by-case basis which is

06:11:48.400 pretty much how harper did it in 2006. i i think it's unlikely he does a formal deal the way trudeau

06:11:53.920 and sing did i don't think that's happening but you need a general dance partner uh harper

06:11:58.080 was able to mostly govern with the NDP, sometimes with the Bloc, and rarely once in a while

06:12:03.760 with the Liberals.

06:12:04.760 Well, that's what you do in minority government.

06:12:08.500 Every day you're thinking that it's, this could be the time when we go to a staff election.

06:12:13.520 We're going to lose confidence and we'll be off.

06:12:15.840 But he has two real dance partners here.

06:12:18.400 The Bloc, which is a clear majority, or the NDP, which would give him only 173, if these

06:12:26.060 numbers fold.

06:12:27.060 don't forget he's going to provide a speaker as well a speaker so now you want yeah he needs

06:12:32.260 a green now he needs the green he needs elizabeth may oh she can't be a speaker she's no no no no

06:12:38.340 but you need her vote so you need to buy her off sorry i just

06:12:44.500 that's a huge fu to alberta if those are your coalition neither like both of these are

06:12:51.060 uh recipe for gravity uh any thoughts on which of these kind of generally two options uh working

06:12:58.980 with the block or working with the ndp and the greens uh any thoughts on which of those is more

06:13:04.660 incendiary the blocks more incendiary to the west but i mean the ndp is not exactly appreciated either

06:13:12.100 i mean they're a rump now there's nothing to them i think we've just said what we think of the ndp

06:13:17.220 to actually then run the government with their help, especially after all that Jagmeet Singh

06:13:22.660 did for us in the last two years, that'd be pretty unpopular. I still think the way...

06:13:28.180 The NDP would be hesitant to work with the Liberals, like they were just punished terribly

06:13:32.260 for it. Did he not come out and whether he's the leader or not anymore, he said,

06:13:36.420 don't trust a Liberal, and that resonated in lots of NDP, you know, the bleeding orange groups.

06:13:44.500 who do you even do a deal with they don't have a leader anymore yeah yeah who gets to make these

06:13:49.700 decisions for them like who's in this negotiating room i think well they're going to elect an

06:13:54.180 interim leader probably yeah thanks but like i just mean don't get too sassy with me come on

06:14:01.060 i i think if i was doing this like and hearing what he said in his speech in the french components

06:14:07.380 about a distinct society and some of the cultural things and the official language like it spoke to

06:14:13.540 me that he had basically done what he did in the english french debate and said two different things

06:14:17.860 when he was talking in english and french and that his play is the block it's the only safe

06:14:22.020 thing for him do you think this do you think he can govern for 12 months regardless of who he makes

06:14:28.180 an alliance with you know what i actually think the conservatives won't push for it because we

06:14:32.340 need to re-strategize and reposition pierre or whatever that looks like um i think that there's

06:14:39.780 you know three months of either probation for what happens within the caucus um but also he his the

06:14:47.780 criticisms of pierre i think were just in the fact that he didn't show that he could be prime

06:14:52.380 minister-esque and in 12 months you probably dealt with the trump stuff so so uh we're gonna

06:14:58.360 work towards wrapping up here i think it's it's getting pretty late um i'll just uh let people

06:15:04.060 know in the comments we want to hear from you i'm seeing a lot of it already uh in the comment

06:15:08.760 section all night uh but we want to hear from you guys in the comments section does the west

06:15:13.240 want out is that the answer or uh you continue to slag it on and heather mcpherson will be the 0.98

06:15:21.960 interim leader it's actually not the worst night uh she's probably the only one whose name i can

06:15:27.640 remember i don't i don't know the name of a single other ndtmp no um okay but anyway let

06:15:32.840 let us know in the uh let us know in the comment section does the west want out uh so okay let's

06:15:39.400 kind of go around to final uh maybe kind of final thoughts uh no we don't even have your camera

06:15:45.400 working sorry i would go to uh welfare uh welfare uh wolf but just say watch who he puts in the

06:15:53.080 cabinet what's jibble what's real and what champagne and what portfolios they get because

06:15:58.680 that's going to determine what the judgment is all right nigel final thoughts for the evening

06:16:05.400 yeah all right i mean this is not a new thought we've written this several times but here's the

06:16:11.160 proof it's a very different mindset back in uh in eastern canada i don't think that pierre should

06:16:19.880 slink away feeling like he's failed we've gone from 99 seats in 2015 to 121 in 2019 to 119 in

06:16:29.400 2021 to 147 and that is that is building it shows growth there's a direction there next election

06:16:39.720 it goes over the edge but we gotta wait and see what mr carney actually decides to do

06:16:45.960 with the victory that he's got and he has the choice between doing things that satisfy western

06:16:54.200 aspirations or just talking about it and doing the complete opposite i fear that and if that's what

06:17:02.280 happens um like ted morton said we've got some really interesting times ahead of us

06:17:10.040 corey your final thoughts on the election tonight i don't give a what happens in ottawa anymore

06:17:14.520 i i've been through this i'm 54 now it's been the same story it's been the same story for my parents

06:17:21.800 central canada buggering the west this is a scandal-plagued government that doubled the debt

06:17:28.680 that uh has been an international embarrassment that somehow they cut the head off and stick

06:17:36.200 somebody else on and toronto said oh cool we'll give you another crack at it no you know what i'm

06:17:40.600 done i'm done we got to look out for ourselves out here because they're not going to look out

06:17:45.000 for us out there uh they're playing that game but you're playing us on this with a stacked deck

06:17:50.840 and uh you know i i wish the best i know paulia means well and there's a lot of good conservatives

06:17:55.720 in ontario but we're not going anywhere this way we're just running on ice and and sliding so i

06:18:01.800 know i'm i'm looking at what we can do in the west ourselves i'm i there's no sense wasting

06:18:06.040 more energy and money trying to win the east erica i think carney's gonna have to pivot one

06:18:13.000 he's got to pick his team in the next 30 days so i i think he's gonna try and play nice and play

06:18:22.120 very stalwart um-esque but i i don't think we should look kindly or expect anything from him

06:18:31.720 so onward and upward

06:18:34.760 yeah all right um

06:18:40.820 we tried uh but honestly i don't think a conservative government actually fixes the

06:18:52.220 critical problems i think the problems in canada are so deep so structural they're baked into the

06:18:58.360 constitution that the west is just never going to get a fair shake no matter who's elected

06:19:03.300 the conservatives would screw us less than anyone else and they would at least say thank you for the

06:19:10.920 money they take they're at least appreciative of it um they don't want to stop us from developing

06:19:17.780 our resources they want to be able to milk the west and they say thank you for it now that's

06:19:23.280 appreciated, I guess. But, you know, Polyev promised no change to equalization. Harper could

06:19:31.520 make changes to equalization substantially, because it's required to build a national

06:19:38.580 winning conservative coalition. Still not enough. The East just doesn't get it. And they've just

06:19:45.660 voted to keep doing

06:19:47.620 what we've been doing. And I feel

06:19:49.620 like Alberta, Saskatchewan,

06:19:53.120 a bunch of

06:19:53.480 B.C., I feel like

06:19:55.500 we're tied to a drowning man

06:19:57.560 who's intent on diving

06:19:59.500 deeper. And at some point

06:20:01.620 you just got to cut them loose.

06:20:03.800 Let them, they've made their choice and that's fine.

06:20:05.720 Wish them the best. Interesting way

06:20:07.500 you put that, Derek.

06:20:09.420 I'm still trying to understand how a dying

06:20:11.600 man dies deeper.

06:20:12.920 They are thinking about us. Dying, not

06:20:14.900 there. Sorry, what?

06:20:16.680 It's as if you think that they

06:20:19.040 are even thinking

06:20:20.600 about us.

06:20:23.860 Yeah, I just

06:20:25.000 don't think they thought that there's

06:20:26.600 a country west of

06:20:29.040 Mississauga.

06:20:32.640 All right. Well, it's been a

06:20:34.960 slice. We've had some really stellar

06:20:36.960 guests. We've been booked really solid.

06:20:39.000 I've actually felt a bit bad sometimes

06:20:40.900 getting everybody on airtime.

06:20:43.440 But

06:20:43.660 But thank you all, Nigel, Corey, Erica, Sean, John, Dave is gone, and our reporters, Jen, Jared, James, Oldcorn, and all the guests who joined us.

06:20:59.040 I think all of you. I'm humbled by just the huge number of people we've had watching us following along tonight.

06:21:07.720 and you could have selected the big state-supported networks you've chosen to spend

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06:21:42.380 You're going to have a lot more to hear from what we have to say in the coming days, weeks,

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Western Standard - April 29, 2025

Election Night Coverage

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