Live from the Western Standard's live stream of the federal election results, we have a lineup of panelists, analysts, and guests to help you live stream the results of the election tonight. We have a great lineup of guests, and a great evening planned.
00:14:09.620Alright, now bring the camera back on me.
00:14:12.140Okay. All right. Well, introducing Welfare Wolf. Doing his best impression of Wolf Blitzer tonight in the green screen is our business. Oh, I can hear an echo back on me. That's not very good. I'll have to take my ear for a moment here. We've got Western Center business and energy reporter Sean Polzer. Let's go to Sean. Show Sean. Oh, there you are. Yeah. Say hi, Sean.
00:15:11.640She's in Ottawa, so she'll be at the headquarters of both Mark Carney and Pierre Polyev.
00:15:15.900She'll be spending some time at both of them, and she'll probably finish the night most likely at whichever one wins the election tonight.0.92
00:55:18.160um back to to incumbent for our listeners every 10 years election canada and they'll be doing it
00:55:24.480in alberta for the next election does boundary redistributions based on population are you on
00:55:29.200the boundary commission no oh i thought you okay i missed something i said alberta will okay yeah
00:55:35.120we got three seats this time yeah so we got three um a lot of changes over but yes this is one of
00:55:41.920those new boundaries that's why you will have two incumbents no one crossed the floor dual
00:55:45.680incumbents uh it turned out actually sean made sense well thank you yeah could you do you want
00:55:51.600to say the name of that constituency again no especially with the laryngitis so erica
00:55:59.200if we have three new writings in alberta is that an advantage for the conservatives uh
00:56:05.840privilege uh federally yes uh so one that i live in like edmonton center uh had some rejigging uh
00:56:13.920there was i would say from that writing a little bit more uh advantage there's the new edmonton
00:56:19.440northwest riding and then it kind of it impacted very very large rural ridings which would be very
00:56:28.240hard to either campaign or or be the mp for um and so yes in theory it did kind of wayfair even
00:56:36.400though the liberal government so what about a new one in calgary calgary mcnighters in the northeast
00:56:41.680Yeah, so it kind of split up some of where George Chahal was, Skyview, which also, or that's where he was. So it does, but I would still say the challenge for the conservatives is that they are heavier weighted in or perform better in rural settings where these are because of the concentration of population and it's about 110,000 people per riding that a lot of it would be concentrated.
00:57:09.440Like I said, the rejigging of Edmonton and then kind of a pocket of Calgary that you saw.
00:57:15.460Well, that's it. It's not just a Calgary writing. It's a no better term for it. It's an ethnic writing.
00:57:21.240It's a high, high immigrant concentration.
01:08:45.560But how worried should the bloc be tonight?
01:08:49.200You know, definitely not as worried as the NDP.
01:08:51.780You know, the NDP is not sure whether or not they're still going to have official party status.
01:08:55.100I think the bloc is not looking in a situation where we wouldn't have official party status, which is having 12 elected officials.
01:09:04.060But for the bloc, I think this is going to be a, this is rather hard election, because a lot of the more nationalist sentiment has become a more Canadian nationalist sentiment recently, simply because of the tariff threats coming from down south.
01:09:20.820So there's a lot of people that say, you know, maybe we don't want to be part of Canada, but we especially don't want to be a part of the US.
01:09:27.120So I think that's one of the things that has hurt the block quite significantly.
01:09:35.060Again, it's not nearly as bad as it is for the NDP, but the block is probably not having a good night tonight.
01:09:42.360You know, they're most likely looking at the drop.
01:09:44.680The last I saw from some polling aggregators in terms of how much they thought the bloc was going to get was 24 seats.
01:09:58.240If you compare it to last time around, they had 30, well, to when Parliament was dissolved, they had 33 seats.
01:10:04.500So it's still a significant drop for the bloc.
01:10:08.780But it is nowhere near the apocalypse that must be going on in the NDP of our room right now.
01:10:13.860Sean, whenever you, if you've got an update to make, you just flag me and we'll bring you in.
01:13:44.480Well, that's a really good segue, Derek.
01:13:47.200It's probably important we probably spend a little bit of time on the NDP because there's some numbers in here, I think, also tell a really compelling story.
01:13:54.720So if you look at the riding of Halifax, Halifax is, if you look at Atlantic Canada, it is traditionally the hotbed of support for the NDP.
01:14:14.480And they traditionally do very, very well here.
01:14:17.920They're running third in Halifax tonight in these early results.
01:14:22.300In Halifax West, another riding that they've traditionally competed well in.
01:14:28.340They're scoring about 7% of the vote in that seat.
01:14:33.460SACFIL, which was long held by an NDP MP, Peter Stouffer, very popular in Nova Scotia.
01:14:41.140Tonight, the party's getting just 5% of the vote.
01:14:44.480so these numbers if you're an ndp supporter tonight you would kind of look at those ridings
01:14:50.560um in these early results to see how you're doing and as you can tell they're not doing very good
01:14:56.640in fact they're doing abysmal they used to hold derbeth coal harbor as well right was that uh
01:15:01.680that was the lady with the glasses uh that's right that's exactly right and and this writing was also
01:15:06.720held um uh there was mayor from halifax who held this riding he lost the riding to robert chisholm
01:15:15.440a former provincial new democrat who then turned it back over to the liberals but this is again
01:15:21.520this is prime ndp territory not just in the atlantic canada but across the country because
01:15:28.320this was the area that alexa mcdonough used to hold when she was ndp leader back in the 90s so
01:15:34.080they've always done very very well here and if you look at those early results they're not just
01:15:38.960doing poor derek uh they're not even competitive um you know they're ranging somewhere between 10
01:15:44.480and 5 percent uh in those ridings and if if for all of you know for all if we were to go look at
01:15:50.320those seats i think we would assume that they're strong um ndp ridings and they're just not doing
01:15:56.080very well um a second here so presumably kevin they're going to lean more to the liberals than
01:16:05.120to the conservatives if they're starting from an ndp orientation well yes in fact the writing
01:16:11.600of halifax west which was close in the last election uh in this election the ndp vote has
01:16:17.920almost entirely gone to the liberals early on um so the lib the liberals scoring about 62 61 of the
01:16:25.040vote the ndp are scoring just seven percent of the vote and the question is is as we get into
01:16:30.240ontario um other urban seats like this one and particularly in the 905 what is that decline in
01:16:37.600ndp support going to do in ridings that conservatives would traditionally need to win
01:16:42.560in seats like the mississaugas and the bramptons and things like that that as um as you were
01:16:47.840showing in the previous graph of where the the election is really won and lost uh in those seats
01:16:55.280that's where the ndp has always played a major role it doesn't appear like they're going to
01:17:00.560tonight and if and knowing that how are those results going to look an hour or two from now
01:17:05.920okay uh i want to bring in uh sean here uh he has an update so uh yes um gasp easy
01:17:16.620however you say it why don't we just call it g-i-m-l anyway so it's flipped over to liberal
01:17:25.340here uh but going back to what we were talking about the ndp 1.5 percent i'm not even sure who
01:17:32.540rp is like is that like the rhino party it's polling they're competitive um wow uh orange0.91
01:17:42.940is the new green the or the ndp i mean based on the atlantic results so far is essentially where
01:17:49.420the the greens are when they're having a good election four to seven percent is a good green
01:17:55.580election that's where the ndp is at right now um and and you know you remember if you remember back
01:18:02.780in 2011 when there was the orange wave in quebec uh look the ndp was bowling nowhere near what it
01:18:09.020is right now uh it back in 2011 the ndp got 103 seats they got uh seats in places like uh bertie
01:18:17.340vale with true flan brosso um in quebec that party has just has gone through a complete meltdown
01:18:24.540Even with the last election, you know, last election, they had 10% in province. They only had one writing. This year, again, they're only looking at one writing. And it's not a writing where they're strong because they're the NDP. It's writing where they're strong because their local candidate is strong in that writing.
01:18:40.840If that local candidate switched conservatives tomorrow, you know, very unlikely it would happen, but that writing would switch conservatives right away.
01:18:48.860So, you know, the NDP has been collapsing in the rest of the country, but the NDP collapse in Quebec was probably the story we have from 2019 and 2021, even 2015.
01:19:38.900You know, most people should have voted. Well, I think it's because when we look at the 715, I was running a local campaign and it was quite depressing to know that you already knew how the election was going. And then you just sat there for an extra two hours. So I do think that they put a lot of the closing times a little shorter. And from everyone I hear, I don't know who you guys folks have talked to today, but polling stations are quite quiet. And I don't know if that's the case for others, but advanced polls were crazy.
01:20:10.640Now it might have been the Easter weekend, but that might also, you know, meaning that there's slower, like the quicker count and less people standing there past 730.
01:20:23.580Yeah, I think the polls were something like 1.5 million in the early polls in the last election.
01:38:35.520Kent Hare is a former liberal member of the Alberta legislature.
01:38:40.800back when those used to exist and uh he was a liberal member of parliament for calgary center
01:38:47.060and a member of uh the trudeau government's cabinet uh from 2015 to 2019 how you doing kent
01:38:54.240hey i'm doing great how's the team at western standard doing tonight it's getting a little
01:38:59.000sticky uh they tend to turn off the air conditioning after regular work hours here
01:39:02.960no matter how hard i beg them but uh well you know you you just gotta go you gotta go grease
01:39:07.980the the landlord a little more there try and be uh that guy what hey nevertheless i roll by your
01:39:14.560office all the time maybe i'll go talk to him derek okay i appreciate that you can put in a word
01:39:19.700uh so kent uh have you been watching the results as they're coming in at audi so far
01:39:24.520uh i actually just got uh back uh doing some uh last minute campaigning for the calgary uh center
01:39:31.280team here with Lindsey Lou now. So I haven't been privy to those results, but I heard that the NDP
01:39:39.160are struggling mightily, which it is not surprising to me and the like. But if you could refresh me
01:39:48.220on the other stuff, I think I can give some opinions. Yeah, here, well, let's, we'll throw
01:39:53.880the map in here. So the Conservatives are, they're winning the toss-ups in the Atlantic
01:39:59.700provinces right now the liberals stand to you know they're still leading with the most seats
01:40:05.300it's it's a strong liberal region but the conservatives are uh leading and leading are
01:40:10.340elected in three in newfoundland uh looks like three in nova scotia one two three four in new
01:40:17.700brunswick uh they're they're holding every one of their incumbents uh they're picking up some of the
01:40:24.180swings, and even picking up some that were not considered to be swings, but it's certainly far
01:40:29.860from a blue wave. But the big thing we're seeing is the utter annihilation from the NDP polling.
01:40:36.800Some ratings as low as 2%. The highest I think I saw them was 7 or 8 in the very highest. Maybe
01:40:44.900I'm wrong, but the highest I can recall seeing them in any Atlantic constituency so far was
01:40:50.580like seven or eight percent um why i mean by perception and kind of narrative mark carney
01:40:59.940is thought to be a less hard left leader than justin trudeau yet he's completely
01:41:06.140folded the ndp vote in how the hell did he do that well i i think uh for the better part of
01:41:13.540the decade the the trudeau liberals uh pushed uh jagmeet so far to the left that he was falling
01:41:19.820off a cliff. And then when Mr. Carney came in with the NDP weakened to the point they were,
01:41:28.120he was able to pivot to a more centrist or even slightly right of center campaign that I think
01:41:36.380the country sort of appreciated that approach and saw it as real change, not just window dressing.
01:41:44.540I believe also that, you know, Mr. Carney, with the issue being national unity and Donald Trump, that's an issue that plays into Mr. Carney's strengths more than it did to Pierre Polyev's.
01:41:58.780And I think with the NDP rendered nudigatory almost right from the start or right from Mr. Trudeau leaving, I think it gave them a lot of room to the right for them to pivot to.
01:42:12.900And I think that's why you're seeing them, the NDP fall off the cliff.
01:45:07.520I tend to say that there are sort of two different conservative parties, but that appeal to two different conservative demographics.
01:45:17.080And the bloc would appeal more to nationalists, whereas the conservatives would appeal a little bit more to economic and fiscal conservatives.
01:45:24.740So I think this will be an interesting one to follow, especially because the bloc has been putting a lot of effort into trying to take that writing for a long time.
01:45:33.540all right uh kent uh yeah turn this thing off here um what is it uh i saw the polls have just
01:45:45.780closed everywhere from quebec to alberta uh bc is the only place still voting at this time
01:45:51.660well maybe yukon um uh what do you what do you think how do the liberals gonna do in alberta
01:45:59.100tonight uh it's never been obviously the strongest place uh you uh you are a bit of a unicorn uh the
01:46:06.080first liberal elected in calgary uh well in my lifetime um what are you expecting to see tonight
01:46:14.060for the liberals in alberta you know i i think they've uh they've run some strong candidates
01:46:19.320you know our good friend eric uh cory hogan uh who's been a the been the uh communication
01:53:55.78080 almost 85 percent of the vote uh bow river uh back area area i used to represent uh conservatives
01:54:04.560are at 87 those numbers are not likely to change much uh this is where it just becomes the battle
01:54:11.380of conservatives of who can have the higher percentage and two of those what is it davian
01:54:15.880turex is another one that's uh up there for how high can you get of support yeah so actually
01:54:22.820Bow River here. That's David Bexley. That's the father of Kian Bexley of Counter Signal and Juno News.
01:54:29.420Yeah, there's really nothing that interesting in Alberta yet.
01:54:34.960We're really going to have to get into Calgary and Edmonton with a decent number of polls reporting in some of those either hyper urban constituencies or heavily ethnic constituencies where you could have some battle.
01:54:48.960But we're seeing lots in Quebec. We're seeing lots in Ontario.
02:11:36.340Yves Levesque from the Conservatives has tried and has been campaigning.
02:11:41.040You know, the last couple of times around, he managed to get, within only a couple of votes from winning.
02:11:47.960But now, like, the Liberals have a significant, like, a 20-point lead on both the Bloc and the Conservatives.
02:11:58.360So, you know, when we say that the liberal, the bloc vote doesn't seem like it's holding as much in Quebec as they were expected or as they were hoping, this is one of those writings that's showing that.
02:12:12.000okay uh all right uh anything else that's uh standing out in quebec for you right now
02:12:21.180um i mean i'm looking around quebec city uh that's kind of conservative territory uh montreal
02:12:27.960i mean lower montreal on the island liberal i mean like if the liberals are not getting wiped
02:12:33.660out in quebec they're gonna hold that north shore of the island uh leaning block so far uh let's
02:12:40.820look at this one. Not enough votes there to really say. It's leaning
02:12:44.720blocks so far in a couple of areas. But if you look at every single
02:12:48.740one of those writings, not a lot of them have a lot of
02:12:52.720polls reporting. So that's why it's still very early.
02:12:56.380Right now, a lot of those are advanced voting polls. They're not necessarily
02:13:00.260so they're not E-Day polls. The advanced
02:13:04.600voting seem to be going very well for the liberals. So maybe the block is going
02:13:08.680do a little bit better than what we're
02:15:49.460The 338 Canada had predicted were actually pretty solidly liberal.
02:15:53.700So that's a two-seat gain, but also drastically different than many of the polls were showing, right?
02:15:58.680So look, if that trend holds, and if the polls are wrong, well, why is that? So if that happens,
02:16:05.340it's because people are ticked off, right? Over the last 10 years, the Trudeau government doubled
02:16:10.380the debt, made the necessities of life more expensive, where people struggled to get groceries.
02:16:15.360For how many years now, people wanted to win every time they went to a gas station or saw
02:16:20.300their heating bill, right? So if the polls are off, it's because people are fed up with the cost
02:16:24.260of living like that's that's going to be what it is at the end of the day if all the mainstream
02:16:28.520polls what they're reporting which showed a liberal majority or a liberal minority if they're
02:16:32.840off at the end of the day it's just that people were fed up with a government that printed money
02:16:37.180like crazy like high taxes and ran crazy deficits so i guess we're still early in the night so to
02:16:43.280speak but uh if the polls are wrong that's why okay well the the results in um ontario you got
02:16:50.740something yeah okay we're going to quickly switch to shown here for an update well um i'm just
02:16:57.340looking at some of these border ridings in ontario so here we got essex uh which was a conservative
02:17:02.880riding incumbent who's down mind you again it's still pretty early but the endp used to be
02:17:09.100competitive there well and these would be the writings that would be affected by uh tariffs
02:17:13.080so here again here's another conservative that's down uh to the liberal uh you know in in the heart
02:17:19.400of the automaking uh territory um here's another one conservative incumbent oh okay okay uh okay
02:17:28.060we gotta actually go back to show we've got some bc as well yeah okay we're gonna get we'll get the
02:17:32.120bc soon but we have a limited time left with uh kevin lacy uh our uh atlantic albertan um uh kevin
02:17:41.440the numbers in atlantic are starting to firm up uh there's still some that are not yet called
02:17:47.540but uh we're getting a pretty good idea of things there right now look just to pick up on what
02:17:52.920franco said i think if you were tuning in tonight you're expecting to see a large liberal victory
02:17:58.700with dear oliver's numbers going significantly down the atlantic numbers really don't tell that
02:18:05.200story and in fact and i think the big story tonight is going to be about the ndp and derrick
02:18:10.520i'm going to actually steal an ontario riding to kind of illustrate this if you look at the
02:18:15.220riding of toronto danforth toronto danforth was the riding that jack layton helped it is his seat
02:18:20.700tonight the ndp are running third in that seat and that is changing the map but even despite that
02:18:28.180the conservatives are hanging on so for all the waxing on twitter by conservative pundits and
02:18:34.920others criticizing care poliver tonight he's hanging on so far and i think that's when we
02:18:40.700we look at the election and what we're a lot was discussed about what's going to happen after this
02:18:45.800election um polymer's numbers remain very very strong and uh i think we're going to see that as
02:18:52.720this election plays out that we're going to essentially hold the second thing we're going to
02:18:57.080see is we're going to go back canada is going to go back to a two-party system and when it goes
02:19:01.880back to a two-party system that will also change the political dynamics and the discussion and i
02:19:07.940think in a good way because we'll have a very clear division on issues and people will be able
02:19:14.300to easily see you know which side of the fence that they're going to sit on. All right anything
02:19:23.440else before we let you go let's just just maybe a bit more on the Atlantic itself because we're
02:19:28.140going to start to turn our attention away from there as as things settle in. Again conservatives
02:19:33.240I think it's fair to say have won all the toss ups and have even pulled off, but not confirmed yet, but are poised to to pull a few one to two upsets in Atlantic.
02:19:47.580Anything big stand out in Atlantic before we let you go?
02:19:51.300Yeah, the big one is that central Nova seat.
02:19:53.120So that's Peter McKay's former riding that he held during his time in office.
02:19:58.820It was held by Sean Frazier, largely on the cult of personality, to be fair.
02:20:03.240Peter McKay threw every hour he had into that riding to win it for the Conservatives.
02:20:10.260And if they hold on tonight, it's a bit of a retribution for Peter because he's put so much effort into holding that one for the Conservatives.
02:20:20.060And also, as you look kind of across where the Liberals are going to have their support, they need to win these seats.
02:20:26.420This is where, in order to grow their mandate, they need to win Conservative seats.
02:20:31.620and they're not doing it anywhere the only seat they've won uh that i can see on this map so far
02:20:36.820is south shore st margaret's and that's a riding that didn't have an ndp candidate um so you know
02:20:43.780when you kind of look at the the how this is playing out um these two story lines are going
02:20:48.740to be significant in how we look at the vote afterwards and how politics is going to look
02:20:53.700in this country afterwards because i think the debates are going to be significantly different
02:20:57.860um without the smaller parties involved okay uh all right well kevin lacy thank you very much for
02:21:05.220your insight uh atlantic has uh given us a few uh few surprises appreciate your time thanks so much
02:21:12.740for having me derek you guys do a great job thank you uh franco um so i want to talk ontario you you
02:21:21.220thus far refused i asked him on ontario went straight back to atlantic i'm sick of atlantic
02:21:25.140We've been talking about Atlantic all night.
02:21:28.140Not a ton of firm numbers in Ontario yet, but we're getting a good sense.
02:21:34.320It's looking, the map of Toronto I've got here, it's got the Conservatives.
02:29:40.640All right, Cochrane, for Easterners watching, is a lovely little town west of, just northwest of Calgary.
02:29:49.640Is that a part of the Yellowfoot? Which riding is that a part of now?
02:29:54.860That is the Cochrane, so Banff, it used to be Banff Airdrie. It is now Cochrane Airdrie.
02:30:01.820Okay, okay, so it narrowly missed out on being a part of the Yellowhead riding,
02:30:04.940which goes from south of Calgary, south of Banff, all the way up to Jasper.
02:30:11.100It includes part of Rocky View County west of Calgary and things like that.
02:30:16.200All right, so Nadine, I don't know if you still are,
02:30:19.260but I've generally always considered you kind of a People's Party supporter.
02:30:23.420So we wanted to bring in for your perspective tonight,
02:30:26.080it's not the greatest night for the People's Party.
02:30:30.120I'm looking at BOSE that has been called for the Conservatives.
02:30:33.240Maxime Bernier running fourth at 5.3% of the vote.
02:30:39.800I think some of us, you know, from the regular pipeline panel, we've been kind of operating under the assumption that the last election was probably the high watermark of the PPC.
02:30:52.260You had a very left-leaning conservative leader who was running on vaccine passports, who was running on a carbon tax.
02:31:01.100uh really you know then you had the outcry uh against covid restrictions those kinds of things
02:31:09.680really playing to ppc strengths and then the conservatives running on the least conservative
02:31:14.820platform in the history of the modern conservative party since its unification of 2004 uh i don't
02:31:22.300mean to sound delicate but do you think was that the high watermark of the ppc uh is it kind of
02:31:27.080looking like the party's over? Well I don't know if it was a high watermark for the PPC but I
02:31:31.740certainly know this election and I knew this going in that it would be the low watermark for the PPC
02:31:36.560because the Conservative Party is so strong in mimicking some of the policies of the PPC. I mean
02:31:42.960if you wanted to look at the PPC and you want to do a comparison on parties just on policy like
02:31:49.000take the emotion the party politics out and just look at policies um the ppc has the ideal platform
02:31:57.480for albertans but unfortunately you know for better or for worse uh people don't vote for
02:32:03.800policies uh they vote for people and they vote their party so you know i think uh i wouldn't
02:32:09.320say that necessarily the people's party is out um i do agree that this uh candidacy and this campaign
02:32:19.000all the way along is was a two pony race this is a two horse race between the liberals and
02:32:23.720the conservatives um have always been a strong advocate for the people's party of canada their
02:32:29.080their policies but they didn't stand a chance in this election it's um i i'm sympathetic with uh
02:32:37.480you know suicidal fringe party runs uh in a two-party race i'm i'm highly sympathetic to
02:32:43.080The PPC is not the only one losing in this. The block is down. NDP is gone. I mean, they're wiped
02:32:50.720out. And if you want to look at the numbers before I came on here, I did look at, I snuck over to CBC
02:32:56.900to see what they were saying. And they made up a very interesting point. The liberals only had to
02:33:02.360pick up 18 seats for a majority win. So I think tomorrow morning in the Alberta legislature,
02:33:10.540We need to be discussing Alberta pension plan, police force, collecting our own taxes, and we need to get on with it.
02:33:17.680I'm tired of the roller coaster, and I think a lot of Albertans are going to be very, very disappointed, I think, with the results of tonight's election.
02:33:27.880I have a feeling we're going to be talking about more than just pensions.
02:33:31.360i didn't know i think the uh the time would uh you know bring in home our pension plan
02:33:38.680would uh placate uh albertans i think that time has passed significantly uh i'm really hopeful
02:33:46.560it is i think albertans are going to take a very strong stance i mean mark carney is not going to
02:33:54.080be a friend of alberta mark carney is a globalist i mean you look at what he did with g fans um his
02:34:00.860net zero, UN envoy. This is going to be a disaster for Albertans. So I am truly, and I know there's
02:34:09.000some people on your panel and yourself probably included, but I think separation is going to be
02:34:14.720on the minds of an awful lot of Albertans tomorrow morning. Well, I mean, you'd put it to you
02:34:19.920directly. Is it on yours? It is. There's a reason I did not run for the PPC this time around.
02:34:56.080all right uh we're gonna bring you back uh but we're gonna oh do we still have franco
02:35:00.400yeah yeah derek i'm here but i gotta i gotta jet pretty soon on to the next thing but yeah i want
02:35:05.560to get you in before before you've got to go uh you're watching this from uh from ottawa i know
02:35:09.940you're in albertan but you've been exiled to do the uh out to mordor you're doing god's work out
02:35:15.400there but uh you're living in exile right now um maybe let's talk big picture if if we're looking
02:35:23.180at another liberal government tonight uh this would appear to be the east disproportionately
02:35:30.920the east voting to double down on what we've been doing for the last decade uh i think it's
02:35:39.680there are grave implications not just for taxpayers but for the fabric of the country
02:35:43.920itself at this point well look i mean for a long time now alburns have been you know the cash cow
02:35:50.420of confederation what is it now like probably more than 20 billion dollars every year leaving
02:35:55.280alberta not coming back right you have politicians calling alberta's economic engine dirty energy
02:36:02.080right how many like the no more pipelines law the discriminatory tanker ban right the government
02:36:06.940rejecting the northern gateway pipeline moving the regulatory goalposts on energy east you know
02:36:12.460i remember uh the winter of 2015 when people were leaving their offices in downtown calgary and
02:36:18.380droves, cardboard boxes in hand. So I remember the devastation firsthand and then add on top of
02:36:25.300that disastrous government policies that kicked out burdens while they were down. And look,
02:36:30.920we talk about all these different energy policies. Another thing you have to remember is who's going
02:36:36.040to be paying the overshare of all this government debt? Well, the Kearney government or the Kearney
02:36:41.680platform wanted to add more debt than Trudeau. Kearney's talking about $225 billion of extra
02:36:48.160debt over the next four years. Well, guess who's paying a large share of that? It's you guys. It's
02:36:53.960Albertans. It's my family. It's my friends back in Calgary. So yeah, I mean, I think it's no
02:36:59.640surprise that there's going to be many people in Alberta and the prairies that are going to
02:37:04.100feel pretty awful right now. There's a lot of work to do. And as I mentioned, $225 billion
02:37:09.920in extra debt from Carney, right? He's supposed to be the banker, but you know, the banker's budget
02:37:15.800was worse than the drama teachers right carney's gonna add almost a hundred billion dollars of more0.99
02:37:20.920debt than trudeau well you know who's gonna love this debt bankers yeah i was gonna say
02:37:26.600the bond fund the bond fund managers on bay street that's who's gonna be happy
02:37:34.680uh it's just wild to me that these could do something this stupid i just have a question
02:37:42.920for Franco. Do you have a book? I do. Yeah. You're good. You're good. Well, and you know what? It's
02:37:50.320timely now more than ever, axing the tax, the rise and fall of Canada's carbon tax. And it
02:37:56.280details the fight ahead, right? Because as everyone knows, Carney doesn't want to scrap
02:38:00.200carbon taxes, right? He wrote essentially a 500 book praising carbon taxes. He wants to change
02:38:06.260the carbon tax. He wants to hide the carbon tax and hit our businesses with it. And he hopes you
02:38:11.780won't notice when your life gets more expensive and when it pushes canadian businesses and jobs
02:38:17.160to set up shop south of the border uh so thank you so much for that plug axing the tax the rise
02:38:22.720and fall of canada's carbon tax and also folks thank you so much for having me on your show
02:38:27.460today i do have to jet but it's always fun talking to my friends back home in calgary it's a pleasure
02:38:32.620and uh i know who else has a book that might be in high demand uh tomorrow i'll be talking about
02:38:37.660my book a little bit i suspect all right all right thanks everyone thank you very much bye
02:38:43.180okay uh i can see some of our reporters uh standing by uh let's see what time is oh actually
02:38:51.400we have uh before we go to our reporter uh some of our reporters around the country i want to bring
02:38:55.860in uh yaroslav baron uh he was uh i think the senior policy advisor for stephen harper uh at
02:39:04.640least sometime of the government uh i guess you would have worked with nigel when nigel was uh0.93
02:39:09.460the prime minister's speechwriter in his day sure nigel and i go way back way back way back yeah i0.64
02:39:17.140was running comms for harper through three elections and i remember nigel's uh silver
02:39:22.920quilled speeches very well when he was back back when he was a speechwriter all right well you know
02:39:28.000what since you guys are old chums uh nigel why don't you take it with uh with uh yaroslav well0.99
02:39:33.160Jaroslav, I mean, every month or so I have you on The Hannaford Show and I say, well,
02:39:37.560how are things going in Ottawa tonight? I'm afraid to ask. CTV has apparently called it,
02:39:43.640and Apple News, not necessarily the first place I'd go to for an election prediction,
02:39:50.040but they've called it CBC. So what do you think? Are we in for another liberal minority?
02:39:56.120Well, nobody's called it a majority or minority yet, so fingers crossed. I mean,
02:40:02.040the uh we've still got a little bit of time before it comes in but you know what there's still a lot
02:40:05.720of unknowns i was just doing some checking and like you know some you know a whole bunch of
02:40:09.800cabinet ministers you think would be a shoe-in they haven't even started reporting on their
02:40:13.000writings yet so you know we may be in for uh for a bit of a long night still and there might even
02:40:18.120be some surprises like the conservatives had a pretty strong uh pretty strong start to the
02:40:22.680evening in atlantic canada at least bucking the predictions from the polls and you know
02:40:27.960You know, a whole bunch of results are still trickling in some of the writings where we're seeing declared for, you know, for the liberals or, frankly, for the conservatives, for that matter, are based on, you know, three or four polls having reported in so far, which really means nothing.
02:40:44.200So it's a little bit early. It's a little bit early to be making out of a call, any kind of a call.
02:40:49.000Well, that's certainly what I've been quietly telling people who are just texting in and saying, is it really this bad?
02:41:00.260Yeah, don't jump off the building yet.
02:41:02.720But if the numbers didn't change much and we go back with the same liberal people led by a different liberal leader, are we going to get the same policies or is Mr. Carney going to take things in a different direction?
02:41:24.480well look let's let's hope that there will be some change in policy um i'm going to be an
02:41:32.560optimist here nigel i'm going to be an optimist uh the liberals know that if they were still running0.88
02:41:39.600justin trudeau and running the same platform they would have been nose diving off of a cliff right
02:41:47.120now they know that they're not dumb they get that they change leaders they got a centrist leader
02:41:53.760somebody arguably you know a red Tory leader type and they ran a much more centrist they would argue
02:42:03.440center-right platform okay so they realized that they needed to do that to win so it's really
02:42:12.160risky to pull on a full-on bait and switch to present to present something in the lead up to
02:42:19.600the election and on election day and to go right back to the way it was before so here's me being
02:42:25.600the optimist that they recognize that the public didn't want to buy their krap anymore so they
02:42:34.720needed to change up the menu and i would like to think that they're going to continue with the menu
02:42:40.800that they now served up because they want to stay in the public's good graces right they don't want
02:42:45.760want this to be the last election that they won. So that's me being an optimist, that they recognize
02:42:50.740the public has shifted and that they're going to continue to shift with it. Well, you know,
02:42:56.460obviously we want to say, Arislaff, we hope you're right. But Mr. Carney has made his whole career,
02:43:03.700certainly the last 20 years, has been all about climate change all the time. And he's been quite,
02:43:09.820that's one of the few things that he has been forthright upon on the campaign trail.
02:43:13.920Well, as Franco said, I think, were you with us?
02:47:43.560Nadine, it's just a different political correctness.
02:47:46.340can i just come back to um yaroslav you know yaroslav a pendulum group which i think is
02:47:55.560what you you've called your your your group um your business is advising politicians now
02:48:02.260when i look at the way that the conservatives have conducted the campaign they were basically
02:48:07.360on message with the things that people care about their jobs their security their homes
02:48:12.180all the things that, and yet it didn't take, or at least it didn't take insufficient numbers.
02:48:19.280So would you advise them to do something different for the next campaign or stay the course because people will come round?
02:48:28.940Yeah, well, I mean, these are good questions.
02:48:31.840There's an ongoing debate inside the conservative camp throughout this campaign.
02:48:36.200Was it do we stick with the message that's been working for us, you know, cost of living, cost of tomatoes, cost of bread, cost of rent, availability of houses, you know, all these issues that propelled, you know, that propelled the conservatives into a strong lead over the liberals.
02:48:53.600and you know as we as we watch the liberals implode after you know finally after nine years of Trudeau
02:48:58.640um so do we stick with that because it works or do we jump on the new bandwagon which is oh my
02:49:05.920goodness Donald Trump and who's going to protect us from the big orange menace right um there it0.70
02:49:11.600was genuine debate and what we saw in the end was something of a hybrid uh for the first couple
02:49:18.320weeks, Mr. Poliev stuck to his original script. He eventually started to hybridize his message.
02:49:24.880He didn't let go of the cost of living stuff, but he started to talk about defending Canada
02:49:29.020against aggression from the South. And he kind of stuck with that hybrid right through the end.
02:49:34.380I mean, some people are going to argue in the end that he didn't pivot enough,
02:49:38.920that he should have gone full on against Trump. Others are going to say you watered down your
02:49:42.720message. You should have stuck with the stuff that really works for you. In the end, probably
02:49:47.720what happened here it's a little early and there's going to be a whole bunch of tea leaves to read
02:49:51.640over several months but what probably happened here is that we didn't have one ballot question
02:49:57.400uh supplanting uh the original ballot question we ended up with two ballot questions for some people
02:50:03.640it was still a cost of living election right through the end and for other people it was oh
02:50:07.960my goodness donald trump and who's going to protect us right and on one of those questions
02:50:13.640the Liberals had a big advantage over the Conservatives. On the other one, the Conservatives
02:50:21.760had a big advantage over the Liberals. It's a question of the relative weight of those two
02:50:27.400ballot questions. Which one of those two issues motivated what proportion of the public?
02:50:33.800So some of this is really just kind of act of God, force majeure, came out of, you know,
02:50:39.860came at you sideways and, you know, the best laid plans can't really prepare you for everything.
02:50:45.760Okay. Sorry, we'll come back to Baron, but I want to check in with Jared Yager, our
02:50:50.860BC Bureau chief. He is coming to us from Vancouver or Surrey. Jared, are you outside of
02:51:01.600J.B. Singh's headquarters there? No, I'm actually in North Burnaby right now at a campaign event
02:51:07.940for Mauro Francis of the Conservative Party.
02:51:11.520So when I got kicked out of the NDP event,
02:51:14.420they made it pretty clear that they didn't want me
02:52:05.360them that I tried to get in touch with them numerous times throughout the campaign and never
02:52:10.040got a response and then they admitted yes it's because Jagmeet Singh doesn't want to engage
02:52:15.520with the western standard and it's only the NDP that I've had this problem with you know I've
02:52:20.940covered events during this campaign the conservatives the liberals and even during the provincial
02:52:27.600election the bc NDP they were fine the bc greens the bc conservative it's only the federal NDP
02:52:35.060where i've had the the ndp uh leader in um uh saskatchewan takes our questions uh even now
02:52:42.620the alberta ndp leader takes our questions uh jegme is just a bit uh made of more sensitive
02:52:49.140stuff i guess uh well what was the mood for the brief time you're in there uh the ndp are facing
02:52:56.100very possibly their worst election in the history of that party you'd have to go back to maybe early
02:53:01.700CCCF right now. They're not declared elected in a single riding in Canada. Nada. One.
02:53:12.260From the New Democrats you were talking to when they weren't trying to escort you out,
02:53:18.340what kind of vibe were you getting from them? I mean, I was there pretty early,
02:53:22.980so there weren't too many people there yet. But the ones who I saw, they had smiles on their faces.
02:53:26.900So I think they were optimistic. And there's some writings here in BC that I think the NDP might pick up, but not nearly as many as they did last time, for sure.
02:53:38.360Yaroslav, I want to come to you on this question. We can talk in a second about the implication of the NDP collapse for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
02:53:48.000And there's a there's a ton there, obviously. But the NDP, I think it's safe to say that one call I'll make confidently right now is that they will not achieve official party status.
02:53:59.800They're going to get annihilated. I'm hesitant to put a floor on it yet because there's still some of their core constituencies like Jaymeet Singh's own writing in Burnaby that have not yet reported.
02:54:12.220but that floor uh is looking like a basement right now yeah you got it look uh 12 seats is
02:54:21.900a magic number to be uh to be officially accredited as a party as in the house of commons and you're
02:54:27.660right uh the way things are tracking for the nbp right now it does not look like they will be a
02:54:31.840recognized party in the house of commons this means a couple things first of all pretty brutal
02:54:36.160times uh ahead for the nbp they're basically going to have to live off the charity of their
02:54:40.660provincial parties just to, you know, pay the rent, keep the lights on, keep a little bit of
02:54:45.260core staff at party headquarters. So it's not going to be pretty for them. It's kind of like
02:54:49.300back in 1993 when the progressive conservatives were wiped out of the House of Commons. They
02:54:55.300basically had to live off the charity of their senators to sort of share some of their budgets
02:55:01.480to try to cobble together a little bit of a pool for head office. So that's, you know, that's the
02:55:06.400internal politics consequence of it. So it's going to be tough for them to rebound when that
02:55:10.300happened um electorally ultimately frankly you know a long-term collapse of the ndp is not great
02:55:17.040for the conservatives because like the last time that we saw an election where the both the liberals
02:55:23.420and the conservatives were coming in on ebay like around 40 or more in the polls was something like
02:55:30.1001930 so um the presence of that junior third party um gobbling up a bunch of center-left votes
02:55:40.140tends to help conservatives get elected.
02:55:42.640You know, there are a whole bunch of writings
02:55:44.260where the conservatives get elected on the splits.
02:58:07.000No, it's the whole business of what do you tell the Conservative Party to do next.
02:58:12.000But I guess there will be time enough for that discussion.
02:58:16.000Do you think that they're actually going to lose?
02:58:19.000lose like i just got the numbers here that in the in the last election they can the conservatives
02:58:24.520have 5.7 million votes yeah um the liberals had a whole 5.5 obviously the liberals are going to
02:58:32.680pick up the the ndp slack do you think that the the conservatives are going to come out a little
02:58:39.240ahead on this on the they're going to pick up votes that just will translate to seats well
02:58:45.880Well, right now, the way it's tracking, it doesn't look as though the Conservatives are going to win the popular vote as they did the last two times.
02:58:55.120Last election, 2021, the Conservatives won the popular vote narrowly, but they won the popular vote.
02:59:00.220Same thing in 2019, when Andrew Scheer was leader, they won the popular vote.
02:59:05.200Not sure we're tracking in that direction this time, but it's still pretty outstanding.
02:59:11.540in, you know, to have a conservative party finish an election at 40% in the polls, like
02:59:19.420normally conservatives are popping champagne corks and celebrating because they've just
02:59:24.160won a majority government if they pulled off 40% of the vote.
02:59:27.600It's pretty astounding to see this kind of a, by any normal standard, successful, successful
02:59:35.180outcome and still not form government.
02:59:37.940That's going to be the really frustrating thing.
02:59:39.720Yeah. What is it about the liberals and what is it about the conservatives? Because we know what it is with the conservatives. They're very strong on traditional values. What's a liberal voter think like?
02:59:57.380the the ethos of the liberal vote i don't know maybe not it's uh like i'm wondering with some
03:00:05.840of the people that i've met around here who are tell me they're voting liberal they don't think
03:00:10.800about much yeah yeah nigel there seems to be a pretty significant difference in you know in the
03:00:19.460generational spread in this election and with no disrespect to the boomers uh the baby boomers
03:00:26.000cut liberal in this election at least that's what that's what all the polling you know before today
03:00:30.520was telling us in the last in the last week or so the baby boom generation which normally is1.00
03:00:36.520pretty solidly conservative they went liberal under mark carney why you know we can we can
03:00:43.100analyze that we can speculate we don't have the data yet but i'm speculating it's because this
03:00:48.220is a generation that's already built up its assets they've already built up their nest eggs0.65
03:00:51.880They're invested in the market, whether it's their pension fund or their RRSP or their tax-free savings accounts or whatever it is, it's tied in the markets.
03:01:00.200And they see this kind of market volatility, a trillion dollars of wealth globally being wiped out because Donald Trump sneezed and whatever.
03:01:30.880This is fear. But the millennials, the millennials, the people who have not yet bought a home, the people who want to get married, but are freaked out thinking I can't afford to.
03:01:39.880The people who want to have a first kid and think, can we afford to do this?
03:01:43.880this they have tacked conservative like that that demographic the millennials the gen zedders
03:01:49.880disproportionately are voting conservative so it would appear in the according to the polls leading
03:01:54.280up to today it's a really interesting phenomenon normally you get old people voting voting0.77
03:01:59.560conservative and you have the you know the young people uh you know voting ndp and everything seems
03:02:05.560to be topsy-turvy like mr paulie have really struck a nerve with young canadians worried about the
03:02:10.760future of this country and worried about their own well-being and worried about having a standard of
03:02:14.920living that's less than than what their parents enjoyed and so those young canadians are voting
03:02:20.760blue and the older canadians are kind of out of fear again to your earlier point you know
03:02:29.160existential fear of canada may not be the right fear uh but they're they're voting for the banker
03:02:35.400guy to give them some stability so the conservatives are the part of the future as these young people
03:02:41.000move up through the true the demographic pipeline so uh all right well uh uh you know slav uh thank
03:02:48.440you very much uh i really really appreciate it um uh yeah uh thank you very much for your time
03:02:57.400i've i just got a text from my dad hey dad uh saying ctv has just called it as a liberal
03:03:04.120minority government so not a majority uh minority um i actually don't that calling it a minority
03:03:12.760is a tougher call right now because we don't know what the end the ndp we know it's gonna be terrible
03:03:18.600but yeah like it's it'd be a minority government but the third party would be so damn small so
03:03:24.040it's gonna rely on the block um watch it carney is gonna try and bring the conservatives in
03:03:30.280and coalition. I know it's my craziest thing I've
03:04:20.620Ted's just enjoying watching for now, I guess.
03:04:23.260Let's go, okay, let's check in quickly with Jared.
03:04:27.280let jared get back to work and then we're going to go to jen hodgson in ottawa
03:04:34.080all right uh what do you see are you safe have you been who's that guy is staring
03:04:38.640in our camera right behind you who's that guy oh just an attendee uh it's quite packed down
03:04:44.400there at the pub yeah at the pub that the ndb headquarters is the pub this is conservative
03:04:51.120no no this is uh oh okay oh yeah up in northern bernambi yeah yeah okay okay uh i mean i okay so
03:05:00.080the cdc site is updating less fast than the uh ctv site elections canada's down yeah i'll watch
03:05:06.480it down for a while you have one job guys one day one day your website really really just needs to
03:05:14.080work for one day every roughly four years and you couldn't do it uh do we know how james doing in
03:05:20.160his writing in i don't think there's any results no results nothing from the lower main line yet
03:05:27.680i think that's on if he keeps his writing i think he's gone gone there's a honestly i think he's
03:05:31.840done too yeah sir what's that i heard i think he's done you know he was pulling third for
03:05:37.760quite a while so do you guys we've got a couple lower main line brothers but they're like lower
03:05:43.760yeah do you guys think that he just doesn't care like he was like i got my pension like he actually
03:05:51.120wants to lose his seat so he has resigned himself to losing it like this last 10 days or even since
03:05:56.400the debate it's just now let's run the clock and do what damage i can on the way out right i mean
03:06:01.920that was not a debate performance trying to win support that was a debate before i was trying to
03:06:05.280drag somebody else down yeah that's not somebody trying to win his seat that's that's somebody
03:06:08.960is giving up like do you think he just wants because he doesn't want to sit there he's got
03:06:13.760his pension oh yeah you don't want to win it yeah is he is is he in a three running no he's
03:06:20.400no burnaby okay okay that's what i'm talking about he'll end up in the corner of a law office
03:06:25.680somewhere and you can definitely be wealthy drive his macerati and look at his rolex oh yeah he'll
03:06:32.960be fine it was nice kid uh peter julian long time ndp mp uh losing although not too many in yet
03:06:42.400pardon go back to central central jay meet singh yeah okay so there's only three polls reporting
03:06:51.040still pretty early but uh jay beat singh in second uh no tied for second and third place
03:06:58.240with the conservative uh but still way too early to tell from those numbers that's that's not very
03:07:03.440reliable he was pulling third for the last well that's based on aggregators they're they're not
03:07:08.480pulling in the actual running the ndp itself probably has internal polls that would be much
03:07:12.720more accurate to the right working liberal on something than they were now when we're talking
03:07:17.680about polling and rotting we're talking projections and it's i mean they're they're normally in the
03:07:23.280right neighborhood but they're not very accurate but you know you've lost yeah you know you have
03:07:28.640lost when you come in behind the guy who always used to be third there's no second conservative
03:07:36.080that is the judgment on the ndp i don't know how long do you think how does the party come back
03:07:42.400from that uh another cycle or two they'll be yeah they don't go away there's a natural place for the
03:07:49.360ndp like so they're they'll be back they'll be back but they're going to go through a rebound
03:07:56.880i mean they're going in may 1st here in alberta to decide what they look like as a provincial
03:08:02.560versus federal party at their convention that they're very hush hush about because they don't
03:08:07.040want to draw attention to their potential divorce with their um federal partner but so we will see
03:08:15.440that, but then they'll have to rebuild of what does a federal, I mean, Trudeau basically became
03:08:20.480a communist himself. So now that if you have Kearney, there's probably more opportunity to
03:08:25.460Corey's point in the next two election cycles to truly take up the socialist part of the spectrum.
03:08:32.500I want to actually go to the CTVs right now. I'm going to bring this in. This is Carlton.
03:08:40.560Minority. Yeah, liberal minority. So this is the writing of Carlton, Pierre Polyev's writing. Still fairly, only two, 266 polls in, but roughly just a little over a thousand votes counted. Liberals are leading in Polyev's writing. I mean, if you're going to be the leader of a party that wants to reduce the size in government, it's not good to have a lot of bureaucrats living in your writing.
03:12:54.740I mean, I haven't lived in Calgary for 12 years now, but I did live here for about eight.
03:13:02.860And the difference, I think, for when we're looking at Edmonton and Calgary is that Edmonton is very blanket Conservatives.
03:13:09.120So there's not an area that doesn't have Conservatives in the court.
03:13:12.580And so why a lot of them, even you remember door knocking, you know, years ago, where you'd have a federal NDP or a federal or a provincial, sorry, NDP or liberal, but you'd have them go conservative federally.
03:13:26.060And again, I think that's just the way that kind of the cookie crumbles with larger electoral districts that you saw in Edmonton with those no true pockets, like with the exception of Edmonton Strathcona.
03:13:40.280But even then, in the 90s, it was a conservative riding.
03:13:44.140I want to check in with, have we still got Chris Oldcorn here?
03:22:24.400Preston Manning wrote a piece in the Globe and Mail saying that, you know,
03:22:28.300if Canada votes, a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Western secession.
03:22:35.640I know you're the former premier of Saskatchewan. I think few people have a better read on the situation than you. I'm in Alberta and my idea of Saskatchewan mostly comes from Chris on a daily basis here. But what's your sense of how are people in Saskatchewan or the Prairie West, maybe more broadly, going to react to this tomorrow morning?
03:22:58.060Well, it really depends what the Kearney minority government, although if you take a look at the board now, I've been down here in your in your green room, by the way, there are no 148.
03:23:08.920I want to point that out. But I, I was watching the board just before I came down here. And it's, it was tightening at the time, I would say, and you have, you put the block in the and the conservatives together, you get a, you get a
03:23:26.600but the answer to your question i think is this it really depends what if it's carney if it's a
03:23:37.400carney minority government minority parliament what he does if he does what he said he was going
03:23:43.160to do in the campaign uh and prior to the campaign uh where he's writing books and making public
03:23:49.640comments uh that could answer your question about how intense western unrest unrest or
03:23:58.520western alienation and i say that because you know he he talked a big game uh in the campaign about
03:24:06.840canada being an energy superpower when you dig down into the comments
03:24:12.840fossil fuels because the rest of the liberal policies they were proposing
03:24:17.400where things like C-69 stays, the ban stays, the emission cap stays, the ban on fossil fuels
03:24:25.960starting with a quota next year and then completely in 2035, that stays. The clean energy,
03:24:33.140the clean electricity regulations probably stay. These will be, these will be, and they are
03:24:41.940antithetical to the Western economy, though it really will depend on what a minority Kearney
03:24:49.860government does. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith met with Kearney soon before calling the election,
03:24:58.100and she presented him with a list of, I think it was nine conditions or demands,
03:25:05.460said if they're not fulfilled, Canada will face an unprecedented unity crisis. Some in the press,
03:25:11.940said that was a threat. You could also interpret it as a warning, I think, that maybe you want to
03:25:20.900do some of these things. But, you know, her list of demands actually struck me as pretty low-hanging
03:25:26.560fruit. We're not talking anymore at all about structural reform to the Federation. We're not
03:25:31.480talking, I'm sitting beside a senator-elect right now. She's been waiting a lot longer. Yeah, who is
03:25:36.920not sitting in the senate um i mean it's a pretty low ass that you know the people we elect to go to
03:25:42.520the senate go to the senate instead they elect i don't know i don't want to get sued i'm just
03:25:46.760gonna say real weirdos real weirdos you're not gonna get sued for that derek yeah i'm not not
03:25:53.080that's because i'm using the term weirdos i'm not saying what i really think uh but um you know
03:25:58.600we're not talking about uh you know reforming the senate so that you know province like alberta with
03:26:04.280twice the population of all four Atlantic provinces, which has just barely more than half the senators
03:26:10.040of just Nova Scotia or just New Brunswick. We're not talking about fixing that. We're not talking
03:26:15.900about fixing equalization. We're not talking about big structural change anymore. These are pretty
03:26:21.960low-hanging fruit asks from Premier Smith. I don't know. Do you take it as more of a threat
03:26:28.980or more as a warning what she said? I think the Premier was doing her job. She was making0.95
03:26:33.060what she needed from the whoever the next government of canada was i think she was
03:26:39.220doing her job when she was engaged with the uh with her contacts uh and and others in the united
03:26:45.860states uh during and since the inauguration so um those structural things weren't on the list
03:26:55.220of demands because they are not possible this is the problem we have what we're witnessing tonight
03:27:03.060the challenge of this sort of this federation where the feet of the federal government in the
03:27:09.360federation is de facto a unicum rep by the house of commons because the senate sorry if you get
03:27:17.280there sorry the senate is is not a thing uh i know how you feel about it i called you when i was
03:27:22.660running currently constituted brad didn't you pass a motion when you were premier to abolish
03:27:28.720the Senate? We did. I thought so. He did. That's why I said I know how he feels.
03:27:34.580I've always thought that a functional federation requires a functional upper house to function.
03:27:41.160But I mean, if the two options are the status quo feudal Canadian Laurentian Senate versus no
03:27:47.240Senate, of course, no Senate is better. Under the current state, I think we can all agree it
03:27:50.800doesn't operate in the way it's intended. I hope we don't get distracted by the Senate
03:27:55.320because my point is this it can change it requires a constitutional amendment that's never going to
03:28:03.800happen and the constitutional amendment is is another notional rep by pop process that needs
03:28:10.360to be the queen's park or assembly and it happened so for western canadians who have a i would say a
03:28:18.600disproportionate economic interest or a contribution for the country certainly that they do a political
03:28:23.640influence what is the remedy get into the house of commons unless you just get lucky and get a
03:28:29.480government like we hope to get tonight that might even have a cold you know that's amazing
03:28:35.720that does not very happen very often in the country equalization can't change it's hardwired
03:28:40.600in the institution so the remedy the reason that 35 according to angus reed in saskatchewan more
03:28:46.760than alberta were expressing western alienation a few weeks ago 30 in alberta the reason that the
03:28:51.880number is that high without a campaign without a leader without answers to tough questions about
03:28:57.400how you know how how did this sort of end this western alienation without any of that 35 and 30.
03:29:06.360uh what do you i mean uh it's look okay the networks have generally called uh liberal
03:29:13.320minority government here uh probably but i mean leading and elected the liberals are 154.
03:29:20.600the conservatives are 151 and the popular vote the conservatives are slightly behind but that's
03:29:26.000because the west is reporting later actually do have a chance at winning the popular vote here
03:29:32.080still uh i'm i'm not sure if there's been a case you know with the last two elections there's been
03:29:37.800uh liberal minority governments with the conservatives win the popular vote i'd have
03:29:41.940to look back and see if it's ever happened that someone has won a majority government without the
03:29:46.680popular vote that's a trickier that's a trickier one to pull off uh but the the electoral math is
03:29:52.380just completely out the window since there's a weakened block and a completely devastated
03:29:56.520if not annihilated NDP um uh but I just got a text that I saw on the tablet here from my former
03:30:05.580senior advisor who made the point I was talking to him earlier tonight about the very thing you're
03:30:11.560talking about which is this call even a bit premature and his comment at the top was you
03:30:17.000know they're in the game and they're in the score at the bottom right now and um so if i didn't know
03:30:22.900it was 151 it was in the low 140s when i when i came down to jump on the show that's very close
03:30:30.040and i don't still out there so um very very very interesting numbers if it's 154 151 right now
03:30:38.760i'm guessing the block still in the low 20s and the adp are at 10. uh no the block is at like 17.
03:30:47.720oh leading and elected in 25 elected at 17 but leading and elected 25 yeah
03:30:51.880well elizabeth may won her writing our way did she yeah she's got 43 percent0.99
03:30:59.960sorry go ahead here's actually still behind in his writing so if he
03:31:03.640that went over uh i guess that we're pretty there are only two polls reporting there so
03:36:49.760uh look like you bit a lemon when i said that uh i think it was easier than that comment okay
03:36:56.240yeah uh but i i i wouldn't put it past them to try uh you know what are your thoughts
03:37:05.520i i don't see it jonathan i'm probably eating the same way jonathan i don't i don't see him
03:37:11.680doing that i don't know how the conservatives can do that if the if these policies are going
03:37:17.840to remain unchanged if they're going to continue as as i expect to continue i just i don't see that
03:37:24.400happening and then i'll go back to what i said earlier remember i mean that angus reed poll
03:37:30.000was stark and to me and should be for everybody uh i think albertus a western uh western alienation
03:37:41.600or more something more intense than that at 35 percent in fast and 30 percent in alberta
03:37:48.880if a carney government proceeds as he says he'll proceed that number's going to grow uh and and
03:37:54.960it will grow with the support of a more organized campaign with more organized leadership uh with
03:38:02.800some of the objections you hear to uh to what the west really could do if it was on its own
03:38:08.720and that number will that number will grow it will absolutely grow because if that is the highest
03:38:15.680base i i can remember it in in contemporary history in our two provinces and again that's
03:38:22.080without any organization that's without a spokesperson that's without a campaign
03:38:25.600or spoke spokespeople or any kind of a process uh that maybe consults uh with albertans and
03:38:31.200saskatchewan people but it'll depend on policy but it's not i don't think that none of this happens
03:38:37.360if Carney has some sort of Damascus Road conversion about fossil fuels and modern age and mining.
03:38:47.440If he doesn't, then I think all bets are off. There's one other thing that I would want to
03:38:52.000point out from a Saskatchewan perspective, the hidden carbon tax that he wants to,
03:38:57.520that he's going to basically continue with, even as he's at least temporarily paused the
03:39:02.480the public-facing carbon tax, is potentially the greatest risk to our economy,
03:39:10.900much greater than just a tax on fuel, a direct tax on basically a tax on fuel,
03:39:19.520because of what it would do to our resource sector.
03:39:23.560Think of the potash mines in Saskatchewan, uranium mines in Saskatchewan,
03:39:27.240of the the large-scale industrial products that are going to pay this hidden carbon tax and it
03:39:33.240sounds like i mean there's hints that his his view is that that can that can be ratcheted up uh and
03:39:40.440that's another thing to add to the list of potential carny actions that will result
03:39:46.520in some sort of reaction i believe in uh in the west
03:39:51.320and one thing one thing uh further to brad's point the hidden carbon tax guess who pays that
03:40:00.040it's all passed on to the consumer anyways so it's just a shell game it gets passed on to the
03:40:07.000consumer and if it's high enough those jobs are at a lot absolutely so uh i'm gonna break in just
03:40:14.200note here, in Jagmeet Singh's writing, the Conservatives have now taken the lead. Jagmeet
03:40:22.440Singh's share of the vote continues to fall. Now it's still 15 out of 200 polls, a lot of room to
03:40:29.000grow, but Singh is down to 22.5% in his own writing, trailing the Liberals at 37, the Conservatives at 39.
03:40:35.480Yeah, Pierre Polyev actually falling behind a little in his riding. 59% for liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Polyev at 38.3. I think it's only 10 polls reporting there. So again, a lot of room to grow. But that's, there's a decent sampling size now looks like for a bit over 6000 votes. That gets to be a pretty good sampling. But again, yeah, it depends what part of the riding is it from.
03:41:05.180i don't really know i haven't seen the breakdown yet um there's a really good rural portion to
03:41:10.300that riding the thing is uh it said earlier quite correct there are a lot of civil servants in that
03:41:15.660area so that is just by way of self-interest is going to be a bit of a drag it's a weird riding
03:41:21.900it's got bureaucrats working in downtown ottawa and it's got farmers and gun nuts it's a weird weird
03:41:29.980uh kind of l-shaped riding uh the closest that he's come he's held that riding since 2004
03:41:37.340the closest that he's come before is in 2015 it was about 3 000 votes there
03:41:41.820and that again was uh when uh when the uh when the ndp were a little we're a little bit lower
03:41:47.180so it'll be interesting to see what happens here now you're also pulling up calgary
03:41:51.100calgary actually has really only elected a couple of liberal mps in the last 50 years
03:41:56.300uh we're seeing the northeast could flip but also the calgary confederation and calgary center uh
03:42:02.780greg mclean has been a very good mp unfortunately in some of these cases the local candidate doesn't
03:42:07.660really factor much into it more than plus or minus five points yeah yeah actually uh right now the
03:42:13.420conservatives are leading in uh both of the northeast calgary writings uh one of those uh
03:42:19.340calgary mcknight you know there was a big redraw there uh it's kind of funny because most of it's
03:42:23.660former skyview yeah george george yeah so george jehal the incumbent is uh trailing that that
03:42:30.460surprises me honestly yeah the conservatives are really looking around the nominations there that
03:42:36.300that actually matters up in those in those writings um i uh of course i'm hoping for a
03:42:41.180conservative victory there i was kind of expecting the other that you would have conservatives
03:42:45.980leading in the center writings and maybe the northeast uh the opposite with the liberals
03:42:50.780it uh looking looking down into calgary center for example uh there's a 300 vote margin between
03:42:56.780greg mcclain to the liberal challenger in calgary confederation there's about a 500
03:43:00.700vote margin you may very well see some recounts here yeah um that's a good point yeah those are
03:43:07.580those margins are tight and how many 75 out of 230 polls and the conservatives are looking to
03:43:15.820make major gains in edmonton uh liberal wipeout possibly there is still still still votes to come
03:43:22.060in uh heather mcpherson uh leading uh the sole ndpc oh no no no yeah uh the ndp have lost edmonton
03:43:32.860griesbach uh down i called that it was a very close race between carrie the odd who ran again0.98
03:43:39.180this time and uh the ndp challenger there reality reality is with the ndp dropping off
03:43:44.940we were going to take that ride in interestingly interestingly enough that it's doesn't seem that
03:43:49.180political because in carried out's nomination there was maybe only 400 500 total membership
03:43:53.580votes cast it's uh it was a late nomination too and care karen principe uh counselor was running0.73
03:43:59.740against him but they the conservatives held that one for quite some time i'm not surprised on that
03:44:04.460one like either the interesting one selfishly is coming back to edmonton center where i live
03:44:10.540And it's looking like a vote split. Yeah, but the vote split is looking stronger than anywhere else in the province for Tricia Estabrook. She's probably going to be the reason that Syed Ahmed can pull it off as actually being the highest percentage we might have seen of NDP.
03:44:26.340100 votes between between Syed Ahmed and uh and the Liberal challenger there like that
03:44:35.540that isn't over yet that writing has flipped quite a bit because uh Anne McClelland always
03:44:39.700would win that 20-30 years ago by very small moments and Laurie Hahn ran twice and took her1.00
03:44:45.620out in 2006. So I'm going to bring the conversation back to Saskatchewan for a moment here uh
03:44:50.740conservatives are declared elected in all the rural ridings except for uh churchill river
03:44:58.260i was gonna call that for ease uh for ease those are really cool total numbers there
03:45:04.020yeah i mean this is a really low population riding uh it it's like three and a half uh
03:45:10.6604 000 people voting there really low uh uh 62 of 88 percent uh is that part of the redistribution
03:45:21.780has that affected it i'm not sure uh but maybe uh brad ball has something to say uh the
03:45:28.020conservatives have taken all the rural ridings except for churchill river they've swept saskatoon
03:45:33.860entirely and uh looking down at regina uh the two urban regina seats are yet to be called but
03:45:41.060the conservatives have got a very strong lead in regina louvan and a pretty decent lead in uh
03:45:49.940wascana uh maybe uh thoughts from rebel well and in the northern riding where the liberals are
03:45:55.620are going to win. As I said, he was a cabinet minister with the NDP, used to be a liberal
03:46:03.960MLA when he was first elected. And he's got a good, you know, he's like, and he's got
03:46:10.420a history. And I know, you know, we would tell our candidates back in the day, you know,
03:46:16.040we, a good, a really good local candidate might count as high. A really good one. Buckley's
03:46:23.540higher than that i think plus that riding that that northern riding wouldn't be would wouldn't
03:46:29.540be predisposed to voting conservative uh so it's not a surprising result up there yeah yeah the
03:46:35.860provincial ndp does well up there uh you know saskatchewan jeremy harrison held that riding
03:46:41.060he was part of your cabinet uh brad uh he held that riding 2004 to 2006 and then and then it
03:46:46.660flipped over there was all sorts of allegations then but uh for the most part i i do think that
03:46:51.540the local candidate matters in that area particularly when you see such low numbers
03:46:55.060voting well well it's it's the least populated uh riding in all of canada i believe and i think it's
03:47:01.540also the third largest outside of uh the northwest like the northern territories okay okay i i gotta
03:47:07.620ask you guys about this weird riding i actually have not nerded out enough i guess on the
03:47:12.580redistricting but this looks to be uh selkirk interlake uh eastman is that's a non-contiguous
03:47:21.540contiguous constituency are they allowed to do that apparently look at that that is a non-contiguous
03:47:28.080constituency that is incredibly rare I've actually have never seen that before uh Brad wall have you
03:47:34.200ever seen a non-contiguous constituency I've seen some funny ones in America where they
03:47:39.840really gerrymander it but I have never seen that we uh we used to joke about how it might be nice
03:47:45.840have that happen if some of those want some of our small part way but no i don't think i've ever
03:47:54.960seen that that is some very advanced gerrymandering there uh derek uh like that's next level but not
03:48:02.320going the way of those that probably gerrymandered it well they've got a contiguous writing from
03:48:07.920all right okay uh let's see uh do we have james standing by is james uh james here james james
03:48:15.360james is here okay we're gonna bring james in um where uh james is coming to us from edmonton james
03:48:21.520where are you in edmonton derek how's it going good uh word is namarjeet so he uh just did it
03:48:29.760yeah that's uh i'm actually quite surprised obviously he's a high profile candidate uh
03:48:37.680being the mayor of edmonton so a significant disappointment to him slaughtered you know
03:48:43.840what's the more disappointing part is he's going back to be mayor for his last five months and i
03:48:49.280gotta deal with him still so that's the more disappointing service in that public service
03:48:55.120announcement yeah absolutely and you know there's uh there are other surprises too at
03:49:01.760at uh edmonton greensbach there is uh edmonton center um with the former riding of randy bossano
03:49:15.440no the randy split the vote there was two randy that's right good randy and bad randy yeah
03:54:49.920that area of ottawa didn't use john baird used to represent represent ottawa west european
03:54:54.800uh in a slightly different configuration it's now a super liberal majority writing what the
03:55:01.440hell happened they all worked for the government that's what happened yeah or was it the like
03:55:07.120the hundreds of thousands of increase in public servants in the under the last nine years i can't
03:55:13.440hurt a little bit erica on that one they they literally bought that writing by just throwing
03:55:19.280out government jobs like they were candy on halloween jeremy nixon and greg mcclain both
03:55:24.640pulling ahead here guys oh let's go back to alberta oh let's bring in uh peter coleman for some fun
03:55:32.480here uh actually hold on uh first yeah okay peter coleman's next up that's let's throw them in the
03:55:38.080mix i'm very happy with this peter spin of events yeah uh peter we are seeing an absolutely crazy
03:55:47.200night here gonna come to you in a second we're just gonna talk about calgary this is the map
03:55:51.760of calgary right now now it doesn't mean it's gonna stay that way but northeast uh that looks
03:55:58.320to be a conservative hold i i think skyview is going conservative but that's a redistributed
03:56:03.360calgary skyview that's that's essentially a new riding calgary mcknight uh still close uh 75 of
03:56:12.160196 polls reported conservatives uh with about four point lead they could do it calgary center
03:56:20.160uh greg mcclain incumbent conservative pulled ahead again narrow lead calgary confederation
03:56:26.160jeremy nixon former alberta ucp mla uh represented part represented part of that riding but lost it
03:56:32.640in the last provincial election uh very slight 0.9 lead uh so that would be a that would be a
03:56:39.440calgary recounts guys i'm telling right now okay but when do we call oh no go away edmonton center
03:56:48.240is back to a liberal lead uh but still less than half there's a lot of champagne socialists in
03:56:52.960there so yeah uh peter uh so peter coleman is the uh president of the national citizens coalition
03:57:01.040for those paying attention at home that uh that was the organization that stephen harper led during
03:57:06.320his interregnum away from parliament between 97 and 2001 ish uh uh peter uh i have no idea what
03:57:14.880to make of tonight uh your thoughts a crazy night i mean at uh atlantic county it went well we're
03:57:21.680not really sure i mean um like mixing uh pretty expensive for the country when he stayed to get
03:57:28.000his pension and uh the party the bed for lack of better terms i mean uh like i think paulia's
03:57:34.480percentage of votes the highest for conservatives since uh brian moroni you know uh yeah he might
03:57:42.080uh where are we at with popular where's popular vote right popular vote 42 so he's beat stephen
03:57:48.640harper he has beats like it has been a insanely long time in canada where a party has won 40
03:57:55.920of the voter more and not won a majority government that just doesn't happen anymore so okay just to
03:58:00.000that point, Derek, Stephen Hartford did win 5,600,000 votes in 2015. It was Andrew Scheer who
03:58:09.280took him over 6 million in 2019. But lower percentage of the vote.
03:58:15.440And then Aaron O'Toole lost a half a million votes. So it's going to be interesting to see
03:58:22.560where the Conservatives end up this evening against those competitors. But for what you're saying,
03:58:30.000And it would be the ultimate irony for Pierre Polyev to lift the party back up, lose his own seat, and see another conservative, another liberal minority.
03:58:41.200Peter, let's talk about Pierre Polyev tonight.
03:58:45.760It's not a given he's going to lose his seat, but it does seem to be in the cards.
04:01:14.780uh it's the drop off of the ndp look at pierre's writing one and a half percent one and a half
04:01:21.260wow like wow i don't know if i've ever seen bottom of the barrel of support like that for the ndp
04:01:27.020ever no no uh look in here yeah uh yeah they're they're barely double the green party in that
04:01:34.780riding um then there's a million independents there was some kind of uh 95 or something
04:01:39.740candidates yeah there's uh that was some it's like a protest against the first past post system or
04:01:44.620something uh yeah the ballot was four pages long yeah but they didn't do it against mark carney
04:01:50.620in nepean where there are one two three four or five candidates no independence at all they
04:01:57.340they seem to be very selective about who they do this with uh guys i've i've just been called by
04:02:01.820uh a uh a candidate's uh official agent uh in a very close riding here i've got a i've got to
04:02:07.740sign off here thanks very much for the opportunity and uh i'm looking forward to some interesting
04:02:13.020times thank you for joining us that's uh donathan dennis uh lawyer here in calgary and former uh
04:02:19.660pc cabinet minister and minister of justice all the best guys thank you all right um
04:02:29.100all right uh how many do we know how many the uh ndp are elected in uh okay ndp are elected in two
04:02:35.340seats leading and elected in eight so their ceiling right now is probably around eight seats
04:02:46.540yeah that's best case scenario that's the best case scenario like we're talking best case here
04:02:51.980is eight yeah yeah hey uh sean do you want to pull up the math find out the last time
04:02:57.260the ndp have had eight seats or less please okay uh you just find it let me know when you've got
04:03:02.620that yeah um but if you had eight seats in say 1993 that's more like having uh 10 or 11 today
04:03:09.900because it was a small parliament so your proportion of parliament with eight seats you
04:03:14.460know 20 40 years ago is more uh i mean we even have five more from lasco yeah yeah uh do we
04:03:21.420remember anyone recall like how many seats the ndp get in 1993 because they got pretty wiped
04:03:26.300I think 1993 was the previous low point of the NDP, and then they kind of slowly crawled back up.
04:03:42.680But then they had their long march that began under Jack Layton, pulling them up into political relevance all the way to a huge official opposition.
04:03:49.980pretty big bump in the road with Thomas Mulcair
04:07:00.040Yeah. Shea was elected as NDP member of the Alberta legislature in 2015, the time I came in, and he worked his way on up to become minister. He might be a New Democrat, but he's among the least crazy ones I know. You can at least understand what he's saying. And I always got along with him. Thanks so much for joining us, Shea.
04:28:56.520Where did our messaging not resonate with people?
04:29:00.380Like I said before, like we traditionally have been, you know,
04:29:03.460a party of working people, union workers and things like that,
04:29:07.040and social workers, teachers, and health care.
04:29:10.040And we've done some really good things there,
04:29:12.440and we've pushed the Liberals to do some really good things that help people.
04:29:15.260um that even a lot of conservatives agreed with which was great but yeah we got to figure this
04:29:20.900out we got to sit down and um we got to dissect what happened here and see if our like where our
04:29:28.080messaging didn't honestly where it didn't resonate like it's i think it comes down to that and um
04:29:33.580what we thought were the priorities and going in and and what ended up being the priorities i mean
04:29:39.160affordability kind of is over everything right and and housing and and all these types of things and
04:29:45.560how how didn't we frame things properly i think um yeah i don't i don't have the answers to be
04:29:53.240honest i i mean i've been talking with people about it and and trying to figure it out and and i
04:29:58.200i just think there's some good things there and we have some really good people in the party but
04:30:02.040um maybe maybe some of the inner circle we all need to take a look at
04:30:06.920that and everybody take a look at themselves and just be straight up and honest right like
04:30:12.000you know we can't obviously it didn't work so we have to sit down and and be honest with ourselves
04:30:18.120and be truthful and it's gonna hurt it's gonna really hurt but yeah you don't get better if you
04:30:23.960don't if you're not truthful with yourself right like we didn't do well in this election we got
04:30:29.140beat very bad you can't you get you know you can't say that we didn't and so did we do some
04:30:36.140great things? Sure. Awesome. But now we're missing a lot of really good MPs in the house and
04:30:41.800we got to fix that quick. Yeah. Shay, I want to pick your brain0.97
04:30:45.620about like what that means for the federal party versus all of the provincial counterparts. I mean,
04:30:51.520you were part of a pretty, probably the most centrist of all NDP parties. Like what does
04:30:58.340this mean? I mean, even Alberta, the NDP are talking about the federal relationship on May
04:31:03.700first i think what does this look like from ndp across the board and do you think some of those
04:31:09.380provincial um that have been successful ndp parties um do they distance themselves now too
04:31:17.220or is there a big kumbaya moment that's coming that we just don't know about
04:31:22.580um i don't think i don't think either one of those i don't think there's a kumbaya moment i
04:31:27.940really don't uh i don't think we should just throw the baby out with the bath water on this one either
04:31:32.820but i do think that we have to look at the successes of different provincial parties
04:31:39.460like manitoba and wav canoe right like what they did there and how well they're doing and
04:31:44.340how well people are taking what they're implementing um you know you look at doug
04:31:48.980ford for the conservatives he's when he first got in i didn't give him a chance and quite honestly
04:31:56.020he's done some pretty good things over the last couple of years and that's why we don't like him
04:32:00.100yeah no but he's learned but he's learned he's yeah he's a little different than right than
04:32:08.420paulia is and and we can have those debates on the levels of of conservatism and nd peers and
04:32:13.540all that kind of stuff but like he he learned in his province what he needed to do to be successful
04:32:20.660and and he's done a pretty good job of it and so for us as any peers i think our federal party
04:32:26.100and and the provincial and territorial parties need to really look at each other and go okay
04:32:30.160what works and what doesn't like don't just throw it all out because there's obviously things that
04:32:34.400do work and that don't but it's it's going to be tough like honestly it's going to be really rough
04:32:39.820after this and um i mean i'm looking forward to it because i think i've always been honest about
04:32:46.280that derek and i've had many conversations about what we did in alberta that worked and didn't
04:32:50.960you know you have to do that or else you're never gonna come on the other team and both of you at
04:32:56.700that time yeah and it didn't involve it for me either um all right i want to bring uh peter uh
04:33:05.000peter coleman uh president of the national citizens coalition into this conversation
04:33:08.180um uh shay just mentioned a name that i have a feeling we're going to hear more of
04:33:14.580Wob Canoe. He's a likable guy. And he's gotten over some history that most politicians can't.
04:33:23.960You know, he's he's had some stuff. And but he's a likable guy. He comes across as genuine.
04:33:30.560You know, he's yeah, I'm probably not the target voter for for him. But, you know, that
04:33:36.500but geez, does he want to take that on at this point? Like he's he's a pretty successful now,
04:33:42.980i think two-term premier of uh of manitoba i think he's just one just one just oh yeah yeah
04:33:49.060oh sorry yeah yeah but uh people like him uh i you know i i talk to uh like liberal strategist
04:33:58.500campaigners they really like the guy uh that they thought maybe he would be a good liberal
04:34:04.260federal leader um but yeah you know i can actually i think she makes a point uh peter that
04:34:11.300But he's kind of a Doug Ford of the left. He's a little less hardcore. He's not a little less ideological. He's still on the left. He's probably more of a new Democrat than Doug Ford as a conservative. But he's got that people's touch. People like him as a kind of normal guy.
04:34:30.700But is this the guy we're going to see replace Jagmeet Singh?
04:34:35.880Or who do you think would be the most likely candidate?
04:35:52.280And I don't think the party can bring back seeing again because I think there's too many skeletons in the closet for him.
04:35:59.120So the Premier of Manitoba would be somebody that he may not want that.
04:36:04.160I mean, he'd say, I'm going to sit this out for a bit because you have to believe there's going to be an election within two years because they can't get to 172, the Liberals and NDP.
04:36:13.020And there's no way Carney can behave like Trudeau did and just ignore the Conservatives or the Bloc anymore.
04:36:19.300so that dynamic in house of commons is going to be fascinating uh do we still have chris old corn
04:36:25.100old corn still there we're not sure um no no okay i wanted to touch on manitoba
04:36:34.080let's touch on manitoba really quickly uh hey shay i just i just got to point this out to you
04:36:40.160i didn't geek out on the um oh all right well we're gonna oh yeah we're gonna bring that in a
04:36:46.080moment here um you gotta look at this on the map here i'm gonna bring up my fun map here again
04:36:51.720i did not notice this oh uh where's my map why is my map not showing put my map in
04:37:01.460i want map okay well that's happening okay okay anyway there's a seizure here okay uh well let's
04:37:10.540bring in uh oh here we are okay uh we'll talk manitoba really quickly and i'm gonna bring in
04:37:15.680ted morton look at this a non-contiguous constituency in manitoba towards the north
04:37:21.160selkirk interlake eastman has this little gerrymandered piece of jigsaw you ever seen
04:37:28.720anything like that jay no i saw that earlier when you brought it up and i i saw that i was like
04:37:33.500what i didn't i never noticed that before i don't think i've i don't think i've ever seen
04:37:37.760national park or reserve or something it must be must be but like why not connect it why not
04:37:44.720connected yeah i've never seen that before even with the american ones where there's so many weird
04:37:49.780ones oh yeah you can want to just go down the highway linking yeah uh this neighborhood with
04:37:54.220that neighborhood to you know make strong red or blue pull uh i've never seen it where it's
04:37:58.780non-contiguous that is that's a good point that erica makes a good point though that i it's got
04:38:04.280to be something weird like like a park or something but even if it was a park wouldn't it
04:38:09.260just be joined up but it maybe it's just like or a big gap of yeah like a reserve because you get
04:38:14.660new settlements on claims and then they'll give individual land outside of there and they're not
04:38:18.920going to split a reserve on two different ridings so they would jump in yeah yeah it's got to be
04:38:24.600something weird like that that could be that could be very well okay uh okay so before uh we're gonna
04:38:29.340bring in ted morton in a minute but before i let you go uh i don't know uh kind of you're just your
04:38:34.740high-level thoughts for tonight um you say the ndp has got to do a big rethink uh maybe let me just
04:38:42.660put it this way do you think new democrats broadly jake meet singh in particular regrets
04:38:50.660not working down the government the fall
04:38:54.660no i don't think so because of what i pointed out before about the pharma care and dental care
04:38:59.300i think the biggest worry was that those programs that we were trying to get pushed through
04:39:04.740in that minority government we're not going to be going through to help people and for us as
04:39:09.980new democrats um that's a big deal right we don't do this we talked you know as mentioned a couple
04:39:16.260minutes ago we don't do this for power we don't do this for getting our name in the in the media
04:39:20.680or anything like that it's it's to help people right and if you're not gonna if you're not gonna
04:39:24.280help people what are you here for so i don't think we're gonna um we're gonna regret it in that
04:39:31.660sense um more just the sense of like maybe communicating things a little bit better but uh
04:39:37.500no man good things got done and and i'll always appreciate that part and
04:39:41.900now i'm gonna do some soul searching and move forward so all right that's shay anderson former
04:39:47.340uh alberta ndp captain minister and uh carl mark's beard affectionato thanks for having me guys i
04:39:54.780appreciate it you guys have a good night all right all right thank you shay yeah be well
04:39:58.300All right. And maybe just a last word to you, Peter, we're going to bring in more Ted Martin in a moment.
04:40:05.620But your your thoughts on just where it's looking tonight with a liberal minority government.
04:40:12.520I don't think they have the mandate they think they have.
04:40:15.280And I think it's going to be a much more interesting part of it because it's going to have to be a lot more give and take.
04:40:19.520And the NDP aren't going to have the balance of power.
04:40:21.740So I think it's fascinating that dynamics are going to play through.
04:40:24.740And I bet we're back in the polls in 18 months.
04:40:27.980And the Trump factor won't be a factor then.
04:40:32.040It won't be a factor because it definitely hurt the conservatives this time through.
04:40:35.360And I thought Paul Yev was much stronger as the campaign got longer.
04:40:39.120But he was behind the eight ball a bit with the media and the Trump factor.
04:40:43.400And it waned as people got to know Carney because I thought Carney actually ran a terrible campaign.
04:41:20.200Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the dynamic change in Ontario, a lot more writings went to the to the Conservatives this time and the Liberal vote is obviously in and around Ontario is very efficient. And I think that that's always been a problem for people. And I just, you know, I think it's, I think Paulie came on late.
04:41:41.840if the campaign lasts another week or two
04:41:44.880I think it would have been to his benefit
04:43:07.740You've been listening for the last hour.
04:43:09.560You see the angst that we're all going in here is, how did this happen?
04:43:16.480That's one question, and the other question is, what does it mean for Western Canada?
04:43:23.560I answer the first question first. Like all of you, I'm happy to see that support for socialism appears to be declining across Canada. Like all of you, I think I'm happy to see that the liberals did worse than we feared. We feared a majority government.
04:43:45.100but i'm concerned and i'm concerned about what the collapse of the ndp means going forward
04:43:54.720as jonathan pointed out about an hour ago the harper majorities the two harper majority
04:44:01.700governments depended and were built upon vote splitting on the left between the nds and the
04:44:06.760liberals and uh if if what's happening today is the new normal and there's no more ndp then there's
04:44:13.840no more vote splitting on the left and you know pierre whoever comes next gets 40 42 percent of
04:44:21.480the vote but uh with no vote splitting the liberals could win in ontario and quebec
04:44:27.360uh majorities and what's worse the liberals they want to rescue the economy they obviously have to0.96
04:44:37.500embrace oil oil and gas and coal and make all the promises that he talked about but none of us
04:44:43.060But if he just wants to win elections, which the liberals are pretty good at, he could tell Alberta and Saskatchewan to screw off, do what he's always done, and that would then divide the federal conservative party.
04:44:57.420You've got a separatist, a block west, and then the liberals, you get vote splitting on the right instead of vote splitting on the left, and things get pretty crazy.
04:45:10.760okay sorry uh we're gonna come back one second uh jb singh is uh taking the stage are we ready
04:45:16.780for him yet production okay we're gonna go to jake meet singh uh just as soon as we're ready here
04:45:23.500uh but oh you just started to get real interesting ted
04:45:26.940you see the you see the risk not only without vote splitting on the left 42 of the vote what
04:45:34.880pierre did was really really good but he still doesn't have a majority and and what's worse is
04:45:39.840the uh the liberals and certainly carney uh it would be in his instinct to use anti-energy anti-oil
04:45:47.580and gas policies to divide geographically divide the conservative vote and then you have vote
04:45:53.100splitting on the right and uh well then you have a very active separatist movement in the west but
04:46:00.280you still have liberal governments in ottawa and and what's the bad news for all of canada is
04:46:07.000is that all the uh all the capital all the investment that's sitting on the sidelines
04:46:11.080right now and has been sitting on the sidelines both in the u.s and across the world about
04:46:16.360uncertainty about investing in oil and gas and uh in canada it's not sitting on the sidelines
04:46:22.600it's going to just go elsewhere and uh the whole country will suffer i got a feeling that uh oh
04:46:28.840are we ready oh okay uh geez why did this have to happen when ted comes on he's getting all right
04:46:34.920that's good that's fine all right i hope you'll stick with us uh we're gonna go to
04:46:38.600jagmeet singh addressing his supporters right now uh hopefully we've still got ted when we come back
04:46:48.680in the honor of my life to represent the people of burnaby central
04:46:53.080tonight they chose a new member of parliament and i wish them well
04:47:08.360obviously i know this night is a disappointing night for new democrats we had really good
04:47:13.160candidates that lost tonight i i know how hard you worked i spent time with you you're amazing
04:47:18.840um i'm so sorry you're not gonna be able to represent your communities i know you're gonna
04:47:22.440to continue to fight for them i know on how many doors you knocked how many family dinners you
04:47:27.160missed how many nights your kids went to bed without you there to tuck him in i know it was
04:47:31.640a tough sacrifice and i just want to thank and we can give round applause to every single candidate
04:47:46.360thank all those incredible candidates and their incredible teams because no candidate can do
04:47:51.400without a team the volunteers the staff you know thank you to all those candidates and
04:47:56.040their incredible staffs one time one more time
04:48:07.720choosing to commit your life to politics obviously comes with some sacrifice
04:48:11.880but we choose this life because of the chance to change the country you love for the better
04:48:17.320we may lose sometimes and those losses hurt you know it's tough but we are only defeated
04:48:23.220if we stop fighting we're only defeated when we believe that those that tell us that we can never
04:48:29.540dream of a better canada a fairer canada a more compassionate canada i have met new democrats
04:48:36.260from coast to coast to coast who will never back down even when they're told that there's no room
04:48:42.780at the table. We make room for everyone because we believe that there is enough wealth in Canada
04:49:01.660for all of us to live the life that we deserve.
04:49:12.780Honestly, I've got to avoid making eye contact with certain people, because then it's going
04:49:17.920to get too emotional up here, so I just made the mistake of doing that, so I'm going to
05:14:43.060Thank you, everyone. Welcome. I'm Rick Perkins, the Conservative candidate in South Shore St. Margaret's and the Member of Parliament for that writing.
05:14:54.640I'm not sure what we are listening to. Come on, production. Turn that off.
05:15:00.860Okay. Well, we're back to Dr. Ted Morton. I hope to God we have a little more time before Mark Carney comes to interrupt us again.
05:15:38.540I'd like to know how many are from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and how many are Alberta, Saskatchewan, and BC, and how many are from the rest of Canada.
05:15:47.220Do you want the, do you say Manitoba, too, or no?
05:27:05.360regardless of kind of the options that Mark Kearney has here to try and survive.
05:27:11.120I mean, of course, he'll be given the opportunity to form and govern.
05:27:15.900But if he wants to govern with any kind of stability, you're absolutely right.
05:27:19.080is going to need to to work with one of the opposition parties and it certainly won't be
05:27:23.080the conservatives so um no i i don't know if there is a great uh scenario here for alberta and for
05:27:29.720the west um but i think the most likely scenario here uh well if if the the trend continues here
05:27:37.400will be to work with the new democrats um and form a very very tenuous parliament uh here um i i
05:27:44.680I think regardless of kind of what shakes out the next couple of weeks in terms of kind of deal making, we're probably headed back to the polls here in as few as 12 months and probably closer to 18.
05:28:28.500There's going to be a lot of complications from this election.
05:28:32.160And we're going to see it provincially, too.
05:28:33.660Premier Smith is going to have her hands full because there's going to be a lot of people calling now for a heck of a lot more provincial, federal battling.
05:28:42.740And that puts, again, Polyev on the spot.
05:28:44.680because are you going to be supporting smith as she's making more demands of the federal government
05:28:49.040or distancing alberta from it which again would just it's just an ugly scenario all around it
05:28:54.480that there's going to be a heck of a lot of thought to have to go into the next couple of weeks
05:28:57.660for sure we're definitely we're definitely seeing a fractured country uh and and the you know and
05:29:05.700you know what i'm going to be doing in the next few weeks oh yeah sorry uh how did i get the only
05:50:28.920United we have to build the strongest economy in the G7, an economy that works for everyone.
05:50:36.060We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal for Canada.
05:51:06.060We will protect our workers and businesses.
05:51:10.420And above all, we will build an independent future for our great country.
05:51:16.460A future that makes the greatest country on the earth even better.
05:51:21.460Together, we will build a Canada worthy of our values.
05:51:24.860We will build Canada strong, Canada free, Canada forever.
05:51:30.340Vive le Canada. Thank you very much. Merci beaucoup.
05:51:36.060we call him he's prime minister uh did mention the word pipeline once he didn't say things like uh
05:51:59.820energy corridors uh he did he did say con clean and conventional energy that's the closest he
05:52:06.220came to which no one applauded yeah yeah a lot of applause for everything he was saying isn't that
05:52:12.940yeah uh just couldn't say it like it was voldemort um uh nigel your uh your impression0.93
05:52:22.140of carney speech you mean the ai uh generated uh collection of the bot whatever bot was just
05:52:31.660i mean there's a when you're making a victory speech there's a certain time you have to take
05:52:36.140and you say nice things and things that are going to please your supporters but that was a bit heavy
05:52:40.860that was that was hard to take um you know i was just looking at um just looking at truth social
05:52:48.140president trump's thing right as carney was uh mr carney oh mr carney right as he was talking
05:52:55.260about all the good things that uh they were going to do i don't know how they're going to do them
05:53:00.700uh trump was saying it just got five trillion dollars worth of investment
05:53:05.420announced in the united states 465 000 jobs we don't have the ability to do that kind of thing
05:53:12.380but i'm not too sure that we have the ability to do even a tenth of that and then he moved on to
05:53:18.460talk about the sacrifices and then i thought about the butter that's ten dollars a pound that's going
05:53:26.780to be eleven dollars a pound and the gasoline they won't call it carbon tax but they'll make
05:53:31.980it more expensive yeah there'll be sacrifices and all this uh purple prose is going to seem very
05:53:39.980get adequate just give it a month so uh very soon we're gonna go to jen hodgson uh a reporter who
05:53:47.420we have at uh i think what looks like probably pier polio's headquarters as soon as she gets0.95
05:53:53.420her camera right there i've seen her fiddling with it for hours i'm not sure when it will
05:53:58.060work yeah yeah we're getting some blair witch vibes uh from there okay uh jen are you already
05:54:03.980there uh hi yes i'm ready here and in fact i've been moving my camera around so that i can access
05:54:12.140your texts and things like that i have been here the whole night i i'm aware but every time i look
05:54:18.540down at your feet it looks like you're setting up your camera so that makes sense all right uh so
05:54:24.060you're at uh polyevs headquarters yes i'm at polyevs headquarters we now have the cleaners coming
05:54:30.060around and people picking up the chairs so we have nothing left to show you here tonight
05:54:36.220we have been rather booked yeah yeah you're the last there uh yeah uh well we've had a lot of
05:54:43.100guests we haven't had a lot of time to get our reporters in uh what was it like in the room
05:54:46.780there tonight as paulia gave his concession yeah it was quite emotional near the end uh you could
05:54:52.380see uh his wife anna on the stage she was visibly emotional uh proud uh his family paulia's family
05:54:59.820was in the front row uh his mother was weeping um it was quite an emotional moment just because
05:55:07.020of all the hard work that you could see that he put in uh over this past election campaign and
05:55:13.020much longer than that too since he became the conservative leader in 2022 so a lot of mixed
05:55:19.180emotions uh holly f put on a brave face got on the stage and uh and said you know we're not this
05:55:25.420this isn't the end. We're not done working. We're going to keep going with all of the values that
05:55:30.040we've put forward throughout this campaign. I mean, I guess, did you get a chance to talk
05:55:39.500to many people in there? I know it's a real difficult time. It's a little premature. We
05:55:44.800don't know if he's going to maintain his seat or if he isn't. But do you think there might be a
05:55:50.920mood I mean for change I know they made gains they did well I mean when you crack down all those
05:55:55.640numbers but really when you look at what people expected two months ago this was not what they
05:55:59.820anticipated this this is not a victory for them tonight by any means yeah Corey you're right there
05:56:05.160is definitely that sense of disappointment um as you mentioned the Carleton riding seat is still
05:56:12.280up in the air so I think the last time I checked um it was maybe close to half the polls have been
05:56:19.660submitted and poliev trailed by about five and a half percent so it's not looking great but also
05:56:27.820there could be a lot of factors for that he very well still could pick up his riding he didn't
05:56:32.460mention that in his speech but that is definitely something significant to look forward to hearing
05:56:38.140about probably tomorrow now it's already tomorrow here in toronto in the toronto time zone here in
05:56:44.460ottawa but uh we'll be able to get um a clear picture of what is happening in that carlton
05:56:51.100writing i guess in the hours to come yeah did anyone mention something that we kind of flagged
05:56:57.740earlier was that 44 000 votes were cast in that advanced poll and it's about 40 percent of the
05:57:06.300total voter uh count for carlton so was there any talk on the ground that there was no sense of
05:57:12.620worrying because of maybe some geo tv they had done around easter weekend yeah his supporters
05:57:19.900still seemed confident that the seat belongs to him that he has that support in that riding so
05:57:25.180among the supporters yes erica however among the other media there was a lot more skepticism
05:57:32.940especially i spoke to one journalist who has focused specifically on the carlton riding and
05:57:39.740she she was rather doubtful about how things are playing out we speculated about on those
05:57:46.060advanced polls and it's not really known that uh liberal voters go out to vote in advance and
05:57:52.700that's why those results are coming out already uh so it is it is a bit of uh it's a bit confounding
05:58:01.180um and it's a bit of an upset really that he doesn't he hasn't secured his own writing the
05:58:07.500the election night has come and is now gone there's you know chairs being set up taken
05:58:12.940down behind me and the cleaners are going around and the journalists are unplugging all their
05:58:17.100computers so it's really winding down here tonight and there's still that unknown factor
05:58:23.980so i did not see that coming uh oh you know i just got a message from a buddy of mine he's
05:58:29.980actually not very political but i guess somehow he ended up working as a poll counter for elections
05:58:35.100canada uh he just said the they just finally finished the advanced bull counting that's
05:58:40.460somewhere in calgary i want to find out what riding that was but uh because we've still got
05:58:45.420calgary confederation is uh as a toss-up um and then um i meant it's under a stun oh what was
05:58:52.460the other one you were thinking uh the other calgary one in the northeast uh portugal mcknight
05:58:58.140yeah okay yeah uh conservatives are pulling up a bit there uh jen
05:59:05.500i mean uh you're you're in carlton you're in polyam's riding he's gonna have a lot of fans
05:59:10.940there um was did you get a sense of you know how genuine or not support was for him to continue on
05:59:18.860as conservative leader yeah for sure actually derek it was very genuine when i was last night
05:59:25.660at the carlton rally his last rally of his campaign it was held out at a farm in a rural
05:59:31.500area in the carlton riding and i went around and spoke with many people in the crowd who
05:59:38.700who said that they vehemently support polyev and you know many of them actually said that
05:59:43.740they've watched him grow up that they've known him personally they've interacted at some level
05:59:50.620and he's actually had widespread support um i've never really seen anything like it at the rally
05:59:56.380last night uh the enthusiasm and just uh the heart the heart for what polyev is trying to accomplish
06:00:03.980a lot of people said they were eager for that change that he's promising and young people i
06:00:09.260spoke with several young people and some of them even still not old enough to vote but they're
06:00:14.460already so involved i think uh we're getting our video compiled there so we can release it to our
06:00:20.300viewers to see what the people of that writing actually are saying uh because there's a lot of
06:00:26.220faith in what polyev is going for so that is actually another reason why i'm a bit confounded
06:00:33.740that he hasn't secured his seat in his own writing now notable notably about that is that there were
06:00:40.14091 candidates on that ballot which is just absurd well yes that is that is exactly
06:00:52.460that's right that that is why it's taking so long and so you can ask oh is it just a coincidence
06:00:58.220that there's that many names on the ballot or is there some kind of agenda or angle happening there
06:01:04.940but yes that is why it's taking such an absurd amount of time and i've been told that the carlton
06:01:11.660riding they started counting that in advance for that they got special permission for that
06:01:16.860specific reason is because there are so many on the ballot yeah you can by rules i think it's an
06:01:23.180hour two hours you can start two hours of advanced polls counting before that but even that i can't
06:01:31.020imagine it's going to be an easy like task for anyone it's a lot to go through staffers are
06:01:38.860earning their money tonight that's right or maybe they're the volunteers i don't know
06:01:43.900but whoever is doing that hard work yeah it definitely wouldn't be an easy task
06:01:51.900um all right uh anything else you've got for us from uh poly upset quarters there
06:01:57.180Yeah, just the mood in the room when Paliyev was giving his speech, it did tug on the heartstrings a little bit just because you saw all the hard work that went into it.
06:02:07.680But there is still a hope for what's next, which is difficult given the fact that the riding is still up in question.
06:02:15.340So there's just a lot of factors that went into the mood in this room.
06:02:20.800At the beginning, it was very energetic.
06:02:24.240uh there were cheers that went out whenever um a candidate uh won the seat and they got that
06:02:32.360check mark right because uh you see as the votes are being counted um it's projected winners of
06:02:38.960the ridings but then when they got the check mark like jamil javani uh in the durham riding he got
06:02:44.960his check mark i got a quick story up about that because he really just ripped into ontario premier
06:02:50.820doug ford for supporting liberals basically three minutes of him crapping on doug ford
06:02:57.620i think it was brilliant it was yeah it really got a lot of attention in the room especially
06:03:02.660among the reporters over at the media desk yeah so definitely a notable evening right
06:03:09.140that's right yeah and the cbc and the cbc pundit said oh well you worked with him as though like
06:03:14.420why should you be criticizing him yeah and jivani said yeah i know i have first-hand experience
06:03:21.700okay all right uh that's jen hodgson the western standard reporter that we have exiled to ontario
06:03:26.980for the duration of the campaign thank you for your good work uh thank you let me go get some
06:03:31.620oh you gotta file a story maybe but then you gotta get some sleep it's two o'clock in the morning
06:03:35.140where you are already filed my story then sleep sleep it is all right all right thanks for having
06:03:42.820me on everyone all right uh just a little update so my friend who was counting advanced uh advanced
06:03:49.620polls that was calgary center uh so that's just been counted so those will probably start to show
06:03:55.220up in the database pretty soon congress center uh conservative greg mclean still got a
06:04:00.660five point lead so looking good for him could go sideways but looking good calgary mcknight uh
06:07:05.960nikki ashton is long time ndp mp for the area likely going down she won't be missed yeah uh
06:07:16.040so let's uh take out the map for a minute actually no the map back in i'm just going to show you all
06:07:22.120toronto and ontario so uh conservatives picking up some ndp seats in uh in the northern ontario
06:07:30.760like timmons area that is like ndp was religion up there that was blue collar union workers uh ndp
06:07:40.360have fallen to 10 in timmons no no i'm okay with it like those are steel workers but weren't those
06:07:54.200the ones that all endorsed yeah i was gonna say with the unions that endorse pierre i'm pretty
06:07:59.480sure that that changes sudbury look at sudbury it's another one uh oh my god sudbury used to be
06:08:07.160ndp northern ontario heartland ndp are eight percent that's the end of the ndp as a major
06:08:15.480force in canadian politics when the ndp changed i mean those are labor writings those are union guys
06:08:20.520these are lunchbox people who don't want to hear about a guy pretending to be a woman they're sick0.74
06:08:26.280of the woke crap too they want to wear they're worried about their jobs they're worried about
06:08:29.720their mortgages feeding their family and for years the ndp that was their labor represented0.95
06:08:35.560representation was too busy off on these stupid social justice uh ndp uh jesus the ndp got a0.64
06:08:42.200single seat in ontario uh i'm not seeing it uh london they used to win seats around there gone
06:08:51.800uh windsor all conservative uh london liberal and conservative hamilton center ndp in hamilton
06:09:06.680center 28.8 percent that's steel town that's goddard dameron of the ndp that's the end
06:09:14.840holy hell not a single ndp seat in toronto it's almost all liberal conservatives
06:09:21.280pushed in on the margins you can see them uh kind of poking in but not obviously not getting there
06:09:29.700not touching the water um they're gone i don't see single ndp where are the ndpc they're all in bc
06:09:38.100Oh, oh my God. They kept that one in Montreal. That's okay. Well, I don't, I don't know Montreal politics. I can't, I can't explain that. Is that might be the only seat the NDP has in the East. All the other seats. There's one, one in Winnipeg Center, Winnipeg Center, Edmonton, Edmonton, Stratkona, and Island. Oh, there's one in.
06:20:43.660But thank you all, Nigel, Corey, Erica, Sean, John, Dave is gone, and our reporters, Jen, Jared, James, Oldcorn, and all the guests who joined us.
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