FILDEBRANDT Facing defeat, Kenney rigs the vote
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
167.54196
Summary
Jason Kenney is facing defeat in his leadership vote on April 9th, but the party brass is already making changes to make voting easier and more convenient for all party members. Will he lose the leadership vote? Or will he prevail?
Transcript
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The people who count the votes decide everything, the old saying goes.
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In Alberta, it's not necessarily the counting that has to be rigged,
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but how the ballots are cast and who is allowed to cast them.
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Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, facing probable defeat in his April 9th leadership vote,
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has had his party brass change the rules to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.
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Late last year, 22 constituency associations in that party
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effectively recalled Kenney by passing a resolution that would trigger a special general meeting.
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This resolution's demands included that the vote be as open to as many party members as possible
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But at the party's annual general meeting in Calgary last November,
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Kenney's allies pushed for a change to the UCP constitution
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that would have raised the bar for recalling the leader from 22 to 29 associations.
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That attempt to change the rules failed, and the resolution went forward.
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But faced with a hard demand for a leadership review vote,
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the UCP brass agreed to a vote in principle, but decided to set their own rules.
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Instead of multiple voting locations across Alberta, accessible to all the party's members,
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the party decided upon a single vote at a location in Red Deer on April 9th,
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with a registration fee that ranges from $99 to $150.
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He's a legendary organizer and a strong fundraiser.
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He would have had a decided advantage in a contest that hinges more on the ability to raise money,
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sign up people, register them, and drive them to and from a distant voting location.
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This advantage, however, hinged upon Kenney's opponents not being funded or organized.
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Unfortunately for Kenney, they appear very much to be both of those things.
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Take Back Alberta, an organization working to recall Kenney,
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has proven to be very efficient at holding hundreds of gatherings across the province
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with angry Albertans turning out in significant numbers.
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Those angry voters are then encouraged to become angry UCP members
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and then angry Kenney Leadership Review voters.
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From the numbers that I've seen, and it is now likely that Kenney has seen,
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those angry Leadership Review voters are poised to decisively send Kenney into early retirement on April 9th.
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By the March 19th cutoff for new members to sign up in time to vote,
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more than $13,500 had paid their $99 to register.
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Take Back Alberta's internal data showed them with a minimum of 60% of the registrations
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With as many as 20,000 people who could potentially vote by the time April 9th came along,
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it was logistically impossible for the vote to be conducted in a single afternoon
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The party had good cause to add more capacity to prevent a chaotic meltdown on voting day.
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Senior sources in the UCP told the Western Standard that they intended to add
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Voting in those two cities and Red Deer would be conducted over three days.
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There was already worry that these new voting locations were designed to make it easier for Kenney
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to mobilize voters in ethnic and religious minority communities that he's courting with a message
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that his opponents are fueled by, quote, racism, hatred, and intolerance.
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Kenney's assumption that in-person voting, with a price tag of $99 to $150,
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plus a long drive with expensive gas, would be to his advantage, has proven to be wrong indeed.
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Kenney's UCP supporters are fewer in number than his opponents,
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This steep barrier to voting, which was intended to help the Premier,
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turned out to be to his disadvantage once the campaign got underway.
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Both sides saw their internal data and know where they stand right now.
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Based on the rules originally set by Kenney's board,
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It's not necessarily the counting that has to be rigged,
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but how the ballots are cast and who is allowed to cast them.
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On March 23rd, the party announced it was radically overhauling the rules.
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Not with adding new voting locations and a few days in other cities,
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but with doing away with in-person voting altogether.
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Instead of members needing to be motivated enough to pay $99 to $150
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and drive to Red Deer and back, members can vote by mail.
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UCP members need only fill out a paper ballot and submit it in the mail.
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Firstly, the enthusiasm gap between Kenney's supporters and opponents
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Instead of giving up money in an entire Saturday,
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Kenney's supporters may not have been willing to do that much
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but they will be more likely to stuff an envelope in the mail.
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Secondly, the potential for shenanigans is much greater with a mail-in vote
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There is still an active and ongoing RCMP investigation
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into alleged voter fraud over Kennedy's 2017 UCP leadership campaign
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None of those allegations have been proven in court,
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but the matter seems to be very far from closed.
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Even this late in the game would have been in order
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if it didn't fundamentally alter the rules and objective of the game.
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Adding additional polling stations in Red Deer or even Calgary and Edmonton
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This is altering the objective of the game altogether.
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but they're now playing an entirely different sport
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Maybe this rules change will be enough for Kennedy
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this not-so-subtle attempt to rig the rules in favor of Kennedy
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his opponents will rightly be able to point to this moment
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when he had the game changed for his political benefit.
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two independent conservative MLAs already in exile,
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and a large number of rebel MLAs still in the UCP caucus,
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it's very easy to see how a Kennedy win under these circumstances
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which enjoys 10 to 15 percent in the polls already
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and some considerable constituency-level organization,
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it would very likely spell the end of the United Conservative Project
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and see the return of a major insurgency on his right.