Western Standard - HANNAFORD： After Danielle Smith's excellent month, what's her year look like？

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show.

00:00:21.820 It's Monday, January the 6th, 2025, and a Happy New Year to you all.

00:00:28.080 There's a lot happening in Alberta right now,

00:00:30.180 and with us to talk about it is the Western Standards man in Edmonton, James Snell.

00:00:35.860 James, welcome to the show.

00:00:37.840 Nigel, good to see you.

00:00:39.740 James, you're a bit unusual among political reporters

00:00:43.340 in that before you started reporting on politics, you actually worked in politics.

00:00:48.380 I want you to tell us about that.

00:00:49.640 In fact, I think you ran for office once.

00:00:52.300 Is that not right?

00:00:53.720 So, Nigel, in my early 20s, I became frustrated with the economy of British Columbia,

00:01:00.780 specifically in the Kamloops area, so I thought maybe I should run for office.

00:01:05.200 Nobody else was challenging the mayor at the time, so I ran for mayor of Kamloops, B.C.

00:01:09.940 I came in second as a very young person and just had a wonderful education and a good time running for mayor.

00:01:19.740 so what about your time at the uh at the war room and i think you were staffing brilliant

00:01:25.900 brian gene as well weren't you right so i i i was uh the content producer at the canadian energy

00:01:31.820 center and then i was a political staffer for brian gene but what predates that is actually

00:01:39.260 my work in earth science so i started my working life as a mining exploration field technician so

00:01:46.620 So taking soil samples, rock samples, looking for gold and base metals up in the Yukon, central BC, Vancouver Island.

00:01:56.660 And so really I started my work life in very remote areas, jumping in and out of helicopters, sleeping in tents, working with wonderful people.

00:02:03.740 And then after that, in the late 90s, I came to Alberta looking for a better life and better work.

00:02:13.600 And I heard that well site geologists or geological consultants at well site supervising drilling were making $700 to $900 a day.

00:02:23.080 So I thought, wouldn't that be great? So at the time, I had about six geology courses.

00:02:27.980 I was a college dropout and I found favor actually in the oil patch and began a career as a geological consultant at well site.

00:02:38.960 And so I did that for a long time, going to many small towns or remote areas and really taking care of the geological supervision of drilling for oil and gas wells.

00:02:51.600 And so you've got credibility. There's no question about that.

00:02:55.500 There are things I particularly want to ask you about the Alberta pension plan.

00:03:00.840 How are the provinces doing? Are we going to end up with a deficit?

00:03:03.680 And what do you see as Danielle Smith's biggest problems, or perhaps we should call them solution opportunities, in the year to come?

00:03:13.940 So let's start with the premier. I say she's had a good month doing the prime minister's job on the border.

00:03:20.180 They love her on Fox News. And you say?

00:03:23.540 I think she's carrying herself like a head of state.

00:03:27.060 She sounds great. She looks great. She's doing her job.

00:03:32.640 And so, yeah, I think she's doing a good job.

00:03:35.520 As far as the Alberta pension plan goes, you know, this is really still a dream that could happen in the distant future.

00:03:43.200 It certainly has provoked the NDP as being quite unpopular.

00:03:48.300 But I think in the grand scheme, the reason for an Alberta pension plan is that Canadian finances have been managed very poorly.

00:03:56.380 And that poor management of Canadian finances has created a lot of worry in Alberta about the future existence of the Canadian pension plan, as I understand.

00:04:11.820 Well, just in the week before Christmas, Canada's chief actuary gave an opinion and said that Alberta was not entitled to half of the assets of the Canada pension plan.

00:04:24.680 And of course, the whole scheme was originally based upon receiving what we had overpaid over the decades into the CPP.

00:04:35.820 But the actuary did say that we might be entitled to half of what we had been asking for, which I think is in the area of $200 billion was her number.

00:04:49.160 That seems like it might be the basis for an Alberta pension plan.

00:04:55.860 Do you think people here in Alberta want it?

00:05:00.200 Some do and some don't.

00:05:03.020 I think that the truth is, in the grand scheme,

00:05:09.020 that Alberta, to a large extent, has been picking up the tab for Confederation for a long time.

00:05:15.640 We've been pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the rest of Canada.

00:05:20.780 And I think there's a growing frustration among the electorate that Alberta has been pulling more than its weight for a long, long time.

00:05:29.460 And so I think that frustration has really given rise to the idea of an Alberta pension.

00:05:36.060 As far as the chief actuary is concerned, I don't really know.

00:05:39.180 This person is a bureaucrat, you know, taking a paycheck from the government of Canada.

00:05:45.200 So has this individual being weaponized like ECCC has been weaponized against Alberta?

00:05:50.880 I don't know.

00:05:52.200 Actually, James, I thought that it was so surprising that they conceded that Alberta even had a case

00:05:59.000 and that as much as $200 billion might be due us.

00:06:02.820 For a federal civil servant to say that struck me as remarkable.

00:06:08.880 But the thing is, this is something that is going to be a very hard sell across the rest of the country.

00:06:14.360 One province would be perceived as getting what it wanted at the expense of all the others.

00:06:22.440 A very difficult political decision for the national government,

00:06:27.500 whether it's the liberal government, which obviously would reflexively react

00:06:33.300 to anything that was proposed by Premier Smith,

00:06:37.860 but difficult as well for a conservative government, don't you think?

00:06:42.760 Well, sure. Nigel, this is still a dream that could or might happen sometime in the distant future. I think the Premier has bigger fish to fry. Right now, we have thousands of people pouring into Alberta every month from left-wing jurisdictions like Toronto and BC.

00:07:09.620 These folks are settling in Calgary. They're settling in Edmonton. So if I were the premier,

00:07:14.660 I would get busy winning over voters and making sure those seats are better off going into the

00:07:21.260 next election. Yes. Well, you know, it's a weird thing that if you're so sick of the left-wing

00:07:28.360 government in Ontario that you would move to Alberta and bring your left-wing point of view

00:07:32.740 with you to kind of recreate what you just left behind here in the province of works. So it's hard

00:07:39.460 to understand what what people are thinking but let's talk about a very

00:07:44.440 important conservative value that the government of Alberta espouses it talks

00:07:50.620 a good game about fiscal responsibility sure but even their friends at the

00:07:55.380 Fraser Institute say they're spending too much money and if energy prices they

00:08:00.640 don't have to collapse they just have to go down and the government will suddenly

00:08:05.560 find itself in deficit. So you've been looking at the numbers. Are we heading for the rocks?

00:08:12.860 Maybe. The Premier doesn't have a choice, though, Nigel. We've had upwards of half a million people

00:08:20.540 come to Alberta over the last several years. That's more than the city of Red Deer.

00:08:27.700 Or pardon me, that's like four or five equivalent red deers coming to to Alberta. 1.00

00:08:37.220 So, you know, that's a that's a problem and a blessing.

00:08:43.840 So the premier government of Alberta, they've got to spend money on health care for these people.

00:08:50.680 They've got to spend money on education for these folks. 1.00

00:08:55.160 So the province has no choice but to spend billions to support these newcomers. 0.68

00:09:04.520 Is this a good thing in the long term?

00:09:06.700 I would argue yes, because a lot of these people are looking for the same things I was looking for when I came to Alberta.

00:09:12.620 They're looking for a better life.

00:09:14.180 They're interested in working.

00:09:15.280 They're interested in starting businesses for the most part.

00:09:17.340 So right now there's some short-term pain in terms of what Smith and her colleagues are going to have to spend.

00:09:26.780 But there is, I think, a long-term gain potentially.

00:09:30.280 But again, there's a real trick, right?

00:09:31.880 Because a lot of these people are coming from Ontario.

00:09:34.420 They're coming from BC.

00:09:36.260 And how are they going to vote, Nigel, in the next provincial election?

00:09:40.800 I think that's a great question.

00:09:43.160 So Alberta prosperity, it's good, but it's a double-edged sword.

00:09:48.600 As I say, I know when I came from B.C., as I crossed the border, I stopped the car, got out, looked at the sign, got down on my knees, kissed the ground, and carried on into Alberta.

00:10:00.060 Let's just hope that people are glad to be here.

00:10:03.880 Of course, they're going to be working, too, so they're going to be paying taxes.

00:10:07.080 Now, doesn't this fund itself?

00:10:13.160 Does growth pay for itself? Does population growth pay for itself? In the long term, potentially.

00:10:22.000 In the short term, you've got to build classrooms. You've got to build schools. You need a way of finding primary care doctors and nurses for hundreds of thousands of new people.

00:10:35.440 so is our health care system in trouble yes it is can you write a check to solve that problem

00:10:47.940 no you cannot there are there are broader issues so yeah yes so i mean broader issues like just

00:10:58.440 finding people who can provide the service the doctors the nurses and everybody associated so

00:11:05.560 there's a as people pour in there are there are some bills to be paid it's okay over the long run

00:11:12.520 i think you're saying but in the immediate future there needs to be an investment and i think just

00:11:19.000 about three months ago did she not make a an investment in new schools i believe it was

00:11:25.080 billions yes yes okay but of course there's no satisfying the ndp right i mean we could turn

00:11:33.560 alberta into a giant hospital and uh and a giant school and it still wouldn't be enough for the ndp

00:11:42.520 that is that certainly so look all of these things if people are moving in they want to come in for

00:11:47.320 work uh they want jobs they will pay taxes that's how it's financed and so we need to be strong on

00:11:54.280 economic development let's uh we don't have unlimited time i want to ask you overall how

00:12:00.680 you think this government is doing um premier smith obviously is uh what is it now two and a

00:12:07.880 half years in office um seems very popular but are they meeting their goals and are people

00:12:14.840 getting what they voted for well i think the situation in alberta is dynamic and constantly

00:12:22.360 changing uh you know particularly as we see uh thousands of people coming to the province every

00:12:28.120 month so uh as far as the the dynamic changes that are happening uh alberta government's doing

00:12:35.560 a great job i think um you know as far as the the overall economy i think they're doing a good job

00:12:47.400 well let's be a little bit more specific here there are some issues which are very important

00:12:54.200 they're ideological issues that uh very important to premier smith and the people closest to her for

00:13:00.820 example uh the reconstruction of the health system the sovereignty act the amendments to

00:13:09.380 the alberta human rights act um but when you you talk to people on the street yeah that's great

00:13:15.980 Good. I'm glad we got more rights.

00:13:18.500 Yeah, Sovereignty Act.

00:13:19.820 Yes, let's stand up to Ottawa.

00:13:22.740 When are you going to drop the taxes on gasoline?

00:13:26.100 And so there are government issues and there are people issues.

00:13:32.500 So are they getting to the people issues that they need to get to?

00:13:38.140 As best they can, I think, Nigel.

00:13:39.820 There's a lot of money going out the door right now to finance Alberta and to finance our operations.

00:13:47.720 And I will say again, there are, as I've been told, at least two Saudi Arabias in this province.

00:13:57.500 There should be no government debt in Alberta.

00:14:02.160 We are wealthy beyond imagination.

00:14:06.640 And so even having a conversation about finances and whether or not we have enough money to bankroll health care, education, programs for immigration, even having that conversation is a little bit depressing, given the fact of the wealth that we are sitting on.

00:14:29.220 And I hope that Albertans wake up, and I hope that the Premier and her staff wake up to the fact that we are an extraordinarily wealthy jurisdiction.

00:14:45.960 We should be at the top of the stack, not just in Canada, but we should be at the top of the stack globally.

00:14:52.920 So why aren't we?

00:14:55.040 We're getting there.

00:14:56.120 Right now, Alberta is a beacon of hope, once again, for people from all over Canada.

00:15:01.480 There's a reason people are coming here, Nigel.

00:15:03.840 They're coming to Alberta because it's a land of opportunity, as it has been over the decades.

00:15:09.220 And so, it's, you know, people are coming here for hope.

00:15:14.440 And so, if the Premier can get re-elected, this is all.

00:15:19.820 I'm not going to get the rise of that, why people do come here.

00:15:22.260 It's why you came here, it's why I came here.

00:15:23.980 But it doesn't alter the fact that in a resource-based economy, which we are, when prices are up, we have money, and then we start to pay more for things.

00:15:36.680 And then when prices drop, we still have those bills, but we no longer have the revenue, and we start slipping into deficit.

00:15:47.160 I mean, I remember the great day when Rolf Klein held up that big piece of plywood debt paid.

00:15:52.720 do you know that was only 20 years ago and of course you've seen the fluctuations in the economy

00:15:58.820 since then it left us where we are what's the current provincial debt 80 billion 70 billion

00:16:04.960 something like that yeah we shouldn't be in debt no i agree but so obviously that we we haven't

00:16:12.580 learned to put the money away when we're doing well for when we are not doing well you know

00:16:21.540 Nigel, I think there will all we all know there's going to be ups and downs in the economy. There will be ups and downs and commodity prices. And so we're going to have to, as they say, make hay while the sun shines. But we are, it seems that Alberta is doing a fairly good job of economic diversification.

00:16:40.680 We have booming tech center in in Calgary. We've got AI data centers potentially being built that are absolutely enormous that could generate an untold employment and tax revenue.

00:16:54.360 So I think we're doing a good job. But here's here's the fact is that the world is going to need oil and gas for decades and decades and decades to come.

00:17:07.260 Alberta has some of the largest oil and largest natural gas reserves on the planet.

00:17:17.700 So what we need to do is we need to get more of this product, not just to our American neighbors, but we need to get this to international markets.

00:17:26.220 And that means playing ball with whoever they elect in British Columbia.

00:17:31.800 God knows who it will be next time.

00:17:33.480 But we've got one natural LNG project coming online on the West Coast of BC, while the rest of the world has entered this market, which is critical.

00:17:47.520 And I might add, Nigel, that natural gas is a lot cleaner burning than coal.

00:17:52.360 And there are hundreds of coal fired power sites being built all over the world right now.

00:17:56.580 So we need to get much cleaner Canadian natural gas out to international markets.

00:18:02.480 And we need to have six, seven, eight, nine, 10 LNG sites out on the West Coast, because we have a lot to offer the world. And so in some ways, and it frustrates me to say this, we have this Montany play, and we have the analogs of the Montany, but we really have more than we need.

00:18:25.560 And this product needs to go to the rest of the world. 0.57

00:18:30.840 And if we can figure out a way to do that, if we can get our shit together in confederation, then Alberta and Canada will be a lot better off financially. 0.75

00:18:41.940 So this wealth isn't just for Alberta.

00:18:44.680 It's for the rest of Canada as well.

00:18:46.640 And the fact that we are sitting on at least two Saudi Arabias and running a trillion dollar plus national debt is a joke and it is a travesty. 1.00

00:19:01.060 Canada is a wealthy country. Alberta is a wealthy jurisdiction and people need to realize that.

00:19:08.920 And getting that product out to international markets is not a sin. It's a good thing.

00:19:13.720 Well, I think you have just lifted us out of the area of provincial jurisdiction and into the area of how are we going to get rid of a federal government that prevents us from doing all the good things that you have just described.

00:19:33.600 So not a bad note to go out on.

00:19:37.840 James, welcome to the Western Standard.

00:19:41.400 We're very much looking forward to seeing your work over the weeks and months to come.

00:19:48.820 And this conversation has been a great start.

00:19:53.860 Thank you, Nigel. It's a pleasure to sit down and chat with you.

00:19:57.840 Well, and I think we'll be doing this more as the weeks and months go by,

00:20:03.200 because our focus is certainly in Western Canada and in what the governments here are doing.

00:20:08.840 All right. Thanks for all that. For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

Western Standard - January 07, 2025

HANNAFORD： After Danielle Smith's excellent month, what's her year look like？

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