Western Standard - HANNAFORD： As the NDP deliberates, the Liberals are waiting to pounce...

00:00:00.000 good evening western standard viewers and welcome to hannahford a weekly politics show of the

00:00:21.600 western standard it is thursday march the 19th in just nine days time the ndp is meeting in

00:00:29.680 winnipeg to choose a new leader the pointed issue is really whether anybody cares let's face it the

00:00:35.840 last leader they had didn't do so well destroyed the party some people say so whoever it is going

00:00:42.800 to be is going to have their hands full but with me today is somebody who does still care and that's

00:00:51.280 josh andrus josh is the new director of operations at the western standard welcome to the show josh

00:00:59.440 Thanks for having me, Nigel. It's awesome to be here.

00:01:01.680 Well, you know, we're interested to hear what you got to say.

00:01:06.960 Now, Josh here comes to us from the government of Alberta. He was a staffer, a policy advisor to

00:01:16.240 Dale Nally, who was the red tape reduction minister. And of course, the joke around the

00:01:22.960 officers that's probably part of why derek hired him gotta get rid of the red tape around the

00:01:30.640 western standard right i agree amen josh you were also executive you were also executive director

00:01:39.440 for project confederation what was that all about yeah so project confederation was born out of uh

00:01:46.960 what i felt were a series of frustrations towards the federal government in albert i think we've

00:01:52.720 seen the genesis of that in the recent uh the independence uh referendum uh citizen initiated

00:02:00.400 referendum uh process has been initiated by i think it's uh the what do they call themselves

00:02:04.960 the alberta first you're supposed to know this i'm just yeah that's a good point um

00:02:11.920 so yeah um it's sylvester dennis modry and a group are uh going out collecting signatures

00:02:16.800 but they're i knew you knew the concept was that uh yeah that i think there's a lot of people that

00:02:23.520 are fed up with being in this country and are going to vote to leave no matter what i think

00:02:28.320 the issue that a lot of people have is what happens if that vote doesn't go the way that

00:02:34.080 sylvester and company think it's going to go and i think when you look at the overall picture of

00:02:39.520 western alienation in this country there's there's a series of things that are happening now i don't

00:02:43.520 work on the file anymore obviously because i'm here now but that is a definite uh tone as we head

00:02:50.240 into the next year uh we'll maybe see a vote in october i don't know what exactly the date will

00:02:56.560 be but um so project confederation was kind of more geared towards the people who are frustrated

00:03:02.080 with the state of affairs that aren't quite prepared to vote to leave tomorrow all right um

00:03:06.880 so that was the idea there so it was built on the principles of the reform party which was run by

00:03:11.280 Preston Manning in the 90s, as well as the famous firewall letter signed by Stephen Harper, Ted

00:03:17.300 Morton, Ken Bozenkuhl, Andy Crooks, and I think I'm missing someone. But that was the concept.

00:03:26.320 And, you know, I eventually did move into government. So I worked there for the last year.

00:03:33.020 My last minister was Dale Nally, the Minister of Service, Alberta, and Red Tape Production. So I

00:03:37.700 a great time in there but i wanted to get back into calgary and i wanted to come down here so uh

00:03:42.260 uh derek put put an offer on the table and i said yeah if i'm coming back so it's i'm happy to be

00:03:47.460 back absolutely oh you bring i must say josh you bring with you a pretty solid resume i know you're

00:03:52.420 going to be a great addition to the office around here having that experience not only in public

00:03:57.300 policy but also in government and of course you you're very familiar with what we do here at the

00:04:03.300 the western standard so just as an aside welcome to the team now tell us about the ndp and why you

00:04:11.220 think that it matters who they choose for a leader and what happens next so i don't actually think

00:04:15.540 it matters who they choose as leader i think that the ndp are in a precarious political position

00:04:21.940 they are going to have a new leader no matter what someone without a huge public profile

00:04:28.580 they've also seen their polling numbers bleed to the liberals we saw during the election where their

00:04:34.500 uh popularity of their vote share absolutely collapsed against liberals i don't think it

00:04:40.420 matters who they put at the top whether it be avi lewis heather mcpherson or any of the other

00:04:45.140 three candidates i think that the liberals are essentially eating the ndp and i think that puts

00:04:51.460 them in an incredibly precarious position as we move into the next few months here so yeah i uh

00:04:58.580 That kind of brings me to, you know, I guess the question is what happens over the next couple of months?

00:05:04.540 Do the Liberals take advantage of these strong polls?

00:05:08.660 We've seen recent polls from Abacus Data and Liaison Strategies that show the Liberals with a commanding 11 to 14 point lead over the Conservatives.

00:05:17.680 The Liberals don't want a strong NDP leader.

00:05:20.320 So I think the question on that I'd like to really get into is do the Liberals call an early election?

00:05:27.060 do they move on uh potentially after the vote uh on these three by-elections there's one in

00:05:34.820 toronto in university of rosedale there's one in tarabon which is uh in quebec and another in

00:05:41.140 scarborough southwest if the liberals sweep the table especially in that tarabon i'm sure you

00:05:45.620 were following uh over how the results were overturned i think yeah like if the liberals

00:05:50.660 have a have a strong showing there i don't see any reason why they wouldn't call the election

00:05:55.620 why wouldn't you press your luck why wouldn't you push to to get a legitimate majority especially

00:06:01.060 with the specter of donald trump and a trade trade negotiation coming up well okay let's let's just

00:06:06.580 talk about this so uh terrible yeah um if the the other two uh by-elections are are certs for the

00:06:15.140 liberals one is the the rosedale the university of rosedale in toronto uh the other is a little

00:06:22.740 further west uh both are very solid what is it scarborough scarborough thank you yes um

00:06:31.380 and so those are those are solid they're not going anywhere if they don't capture terrible

00:06:38.980 then maybe mr carney has just more minority government because he'd have the same number

00:06:47.860 of seats but he's got to give up one for the speaker so you know you really have to make

00:06:51.860 sure everybody is well and drives carefully if you're going to be yeah yeah sort of thing so

00:06:58.500 so is it your contention that in that circumstance he would look at the polling and say look i'm ahead

00:07:04.420 56 i think was the last one i saw it i i mean i didn't know whether to believe it to be honest

00:07:09.140 you because nobody gets 56 approvals but anyway uh let's let's say it's true and let's say that

00:07:15.620 you think that he would go for it yeah i mean if i was in his position just sitting on like you said

00:07:22.680 where you're on the edge of the night right like you're not in a position where you know you can

00:07:27.640 afford to have three or four mlas all catch the flu or mps all catch the flu at the same time

00:07:32.440 especially on like a potential voter voter non-confident so we're in a position where yeah

00:07:37.600 you're on the edge of a knife you win tarabon i think that puts you in majority territory you lose

00:07:42.100 Terrebonne. Yeah, it's it's a little bit trickier. But even then, like in terms of democratic

00:07:48.220 legitimacy, having that elected majority, I mean, when you're polling at 11 to 14 percent and your

00:07:54.440 main concern in order to to maintain that majority position is the weakness of the NDP, I would if I

00:08:03.540 was in that position, I would be moving now. I would be you know, if you win Terrebonne, that's

00:08:08.240 almost to me a sign that hey we are in a stronger position than we were just a year ago let's move

00:08:14.040 on this let's run to the election but i mean i'm not a liberal advisor but if i were in that

00:08:18.920 position that's 100 what i would do just given the fact that you want that majority you want

00:08:24.360 you know four years and and also i think uh in the event that you do get that majority in election

00:08:30.880 usa you effectively put a bullet in pierre polyev's career uh political career as a leader

00:08:35.560 Yeah, that's a different discussion, but yes, that would be terminal for him.

00:08:42.420 Now, I'm going to pitch this a little differently to you.

00:08:47.760 There are five people running for the leadership of the NDP, and they have very different characteristics.

00:08:55.680 You talked about Avi Lewis.

00:08:59.340 Talk to me now about Avi Lewis, and then we'll go over the other ones.

00:09:02.740 Who is he?

00:09:03.200 and he's the one leading in terms of fundraising

00:09:07.640 and therefore presumably popularity.

00:09:10.380 So what's he like?

00:09:13.060 What does he represent?

00:09:14.380 So Avi Lewis obviously is, in a lot of people's opinion,

00:09:18.580 the front runner here.

00:09:19.660 He's a prominent activist, documentary filmmaker,

00:09:22.480 and a longtime, we'll call him a family of politicians.

00:09:27.920 His grandfather was former NDP leader David Lewis.

00:09:34.460 His fundraising puts him at about $1.2 million, and he is one of the leading climate activists in the NDP movement.

00:09:43.860 You also have, which is a name that probably will sound familiar to a lot of the viewers of this station, Edmonton Strathcona MP Heather McPherson.

00:09:54.120 She's the only sitting member of Parliament in the race.

00:09:56.560 Whether or not her election changes the calculus on that is, again, another question entirely.

00:10:03.260 Carney's popularity in Alberta has actually, I think it's gone up, at least from the polls.

00:10:10.120 I don't, again, I don't know if I believe that, but, you know, I do, I think it's hard to underestimate Carney in this sense.

00:10:17.620 You've got a union leader, Rob Ashton, national president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union of Canada.

00:10:24.220 his campaign emphasizes returning the party to its working class roots so as opposed to like now 0.97

00:10:30.900 where you have a lot of professional associations like your teachers and your doctors and your

00:10:36.020 lawyers that dominate the thought process there a return to the blue collar workers would be a 0.99

00:10:41.700 change for the NDP obviously that subsection was not well represented under the leadership of

00:10:46.940 Jagmeet Singh or his predecessors and then you have Tony McQuail as well I and Tennille Johnson

00:10:53.560 And they're both kind of, we'll see.

00:10:56.420 I mean, I think they're also rank candidates.

00:10:58.260 But again, to me, I don't necessarily think that any one of these five, if you call the election fast enough, will be able to establish themselves and reestablish the NDP to what it was under the leadership of Jack Layton, who, in a lot of people's minds, was that blue-collar kind of a leader, had that charisma.

00:11:17.160 He certainly looked like he knew how to change his own back tire, didn't he?

00:11:20.220 Yeah, exactly.

00:11:20.920 that's a very appealing characteristic of him so look on on the matter i think it does make a

00:11:26.840 difference who wins you were saying you didn't think it did but um some i i don't want to be

00:11:33.960 unkind to somebody i've never spoken to but there's one of these candidates from vancouver island who

00:11:39.560 really i i don't know what they're doing there uh it's not a point of view that's even well

00:11:45.080 represented in the party never mind nationally it's it's the hearts and flowers campaign so

00:11:52.840 that's that's too bad for uh tenille johnson and i think if she were elected it would be

00:12:01.400 oh absolutely it would be a it would be a shock yes rob ashton he he could be to the ndp what

00:12:11.800 jack jack layton was or uh he could be he you know a strong no bs kind of guy

00:12:25.240 doesn't sound like one of the elites and he isn't you mentioned heather mcpherson

00:12:35.560 maybe she is a school teacher i'm not sure but uh

00:12:38.360 I know she's been involved in international aid work and so forth,

00:12:43.980 all about Palestine in the last year.

00:12:48.200 There is a market for that,

00:12:50.620 but I'm not sure it's the market that could take the NDP over the top.

00:12:57.480 But here's what I'm thinking where Mr. Lewis could,

00:13:01.600 where it would make a difference.

00:13:03.780 He's got brand name recognition.

00:13:05.400 He's got good financing.

00:13:07.280 If he needs more financing, he'll have it.

00:13:09.680 And he can represent that part of the party that is deeply suspicious

00:13:13.380 of the conservative leanings of Mr. Carney.

00:13:16.880 Now, let me say for people who are already talking about

00:13:19.500 conservative leanings of Mr. Carney, Mr. Carney is not his predecessor.

00:13:25.780 And much as I disagree with his policies, they make sense in an orderly way.

00:13:31.980 Like you can see how the one depends on the other.

00:13:34.080 and it may not be working but at least it shows some smarts and some intelligence and he's got a

00:13:40.960 good way about him people people enjoy him but davos speech was actually uh not the speech he

00:13:46.380 should have made in davos at all but everybody says what a wonderful speech it is meanwhile he's

00:13:52.540 cutting the numbers of the civil service uh he's tightening up on trade and industry or says he

00:14:01.320 means to. And these are things that could impact the NDP voter. Above all, he doesn't look like

00:14:10.560 he's able to protect that very strong NDP voting base in the car industry. So what are they actually

00:14:20.080 going to be thanking him for? So I put it to you that there are some weak points in Mr. Carney's

00:14:27.200 overall presentation that would be exploited, opened up, and revealed to the world by a

00:14:36.420 clever NDP leader.

00:14:38.920 And I'm going to make the assumption that given his family history, Mr. Lewis would be

00:14:44.300 capable of doing that.

00:14:45.440 And then suddenly all of these safe liberal seats aren't safe anymore.

00:14:51.520 And you say?

00:14:52.460 Well, I think we've seen that before.

00:14:54.380 We saw it in Alberta.

00:14:55.140 Rachel Notley won the NDP leadership in 2014, became the premier in 2015.

00:15:00.900 I mean, there's always that, you know, threat out there.

00:15:06.100 I just, you know, with the timing, again, and this is a strategy conversation,

00:15:10.100 any one of those candidates could potentially build the NDP up to what Jack Layton had it.

00:15:15.440 They've all got, you know, characteristics they bring to the table.

00:15:19.060 But I think they all need time to do it.

00:15:20.880 I don't think you can become the leader on April the 27th and then 28 days later win an election.

00:15:27.940 I think if the Liberals move fast, they essentially take the element of time away from the NDP.

00:15:33.620 And if you do that, you effectively neuter whoever the leader is.

00:15:38.080 So in a sense, I don't mean like that the NDP is forever irrelevant.

00:15:43.020 I just mean that from a strategic standpoint, if the Liberals move on election soon,

00:15:47.660 that they could potentially secure four more years of majority rule

00:15:53.500 without having to use, we'll call it less than savory methods

00:15:57.920 of obtaining full power in Ottawa.

00:15:59.760 So you are making the assumption then that whoever the new leader of the NDP

00:16:06.460 turns out to be, they couldn't improve on Jagmeet Singh's dreadful numbers

00:16:13.900 in the 2025 election.

00:16:15.540 i don't want to say you couldn't improve because that is a pretty low bar to begin with but in

00:16:22.300 terms of enough to pull enough votes away especially i mean like if the polls stay where

00:16:26.980 they are where you're at you know a 56 approval rating i think he was up plus 20 from polyev yeah

00:16:33.800 um it's just with the windows that it is and again we'll see like maybe maybe the polls are

00:16:39.180 off maybe terabon sends a message maybe the block holds out there or maybe the liberals

00:16:44.640 somehow pull with pull away with a bigger majority i think there's a lot that's going to be told

00:16:48.820 in these three by-elections but if the ndp like and again i think the by-elections happen before

00:16:56.140 the leadership races up so i mean it's going to be tough to tell what the ndp vote but

00:17:00.480 unless you get a candidate that gives you that immediate bump i don't necessarily see a way that

00:17:06.580 if the liberals move quickly and call an early election to get that majority it's going to make

00:17:12.380 it very difficult not just for polyev especially with and this is something we haven't really

00:17:16.400 talked about it's a different conversation trump uh for better or for worse has is is a specter

00:17:22.900 over this entire conversation i noticed there's a lot of anti-american sentiment that has developed

00:17:29.340 from this and it may just be one of those things where carney as a liberal is viewed as a more of

00:17:36.300 democrat in in a lot of people's minds and it it it it will call it trump derangement syndrome

00:17:42.540 um where carney's almost in a way publicly viewed as the antidote to that and polyev can't come up

00:17:48.780 against it but you know just from a strategic standpoint if i'm if i'm if i'm the liberal

00:17:54.780 government and i want power for four years i'm looking at the monday after the ndp puts their

00:18:02.060 leadership candidate into this position to call the election no matter who that candidate is

00:18:08.620 well they're their masters are doing that they did it to stop all day 25 years ago so

00:18:13.500 and i'm sure there's a little book in the side drawer there they pull out what to do when you

00:18:18.620 you know when when you have just your opposition party has just elected a new leader go to an

00:18:23.820 election or me yeah yeah yeah yeah rule number 10 subsection two yeah we'll have to get we'll

00:18:28.940 We'll have to get Jean Chrétien to comment on that.

00:18:31.620 Yeah, and he'd be happy to tell you.

00:18:33.360 Look, I don't think they'll go for it.

00:18:37.620 I think they've got too much to risk, but you think that they will.

00:18:40.460 One of us will be proven right by the end of, what, April, you say?

00:18:45.000 I think April 27th.

00:18:47.020 March 27th, the 29th.

00:18:48.840 Yeah.

00:18:49.060 So then Mr. Carney drops the election writ on?

00:18:54.200 April 1.

00:18:55.320 April Fool's Day.

00:18:56.580 Yeah.

00:18:57.280 That's your last word on the Sunday.

00:18:58.940 that's my guess that is uh yeah that is my uh that is my prognostication i could be completely wrong

00:19:05.340 but uh i just if i'm if i'm mark carney that's what i'm doing that's 100 what i'm doing okay

00:19:11.900 well just uh tell me this we've got one minute left naheed nenshi is the ndp leader in alberta

00:19:22.300 Do you think he's wishing that he was part of the fund back there?

00:19:27.080 Yes and no.

00:19:28.340 I mean, personally, I don't think he's performed up to what the NDP were hoping when they elected him as leader.

00:19:38.580 Whether or not he wishes he wasn't the leader of the provincial NDP and is playing in the federal sandbox, which I think is the question, I can't comment.

00:19:47.580 I know that when people get into positions of authority, they have a hard time walking away from that, no matter what it is.

00:19:55.080 And that the concept of maybe not of walking away from power to become leader of the federal NDP.

00:20:02.180 I'm going to, you know, obviously I commute to work every day.

00:20:05.600 And the big thing that we're dealing with in Calgary now is the water crisis.

00:20:09.300 I don't think that's a good look for Nenshi anyways.

00:20:12.140 So maybe he is regretting not going to the federal.

00:20:15.440 but that would just make that a national story as opposed to a provincial one so uh i don't know

00:20:21.140 how he's feeling right now but uh if you're in the if i were still in the alberta government i would

00:20:29.140 say that i'm happy that naed nenshi is the leader of the official opposition in alberta

00:20:36.000 because i don't think he's doing a fantastic job and i think you may be right josh andrus

00:20:43.140 a new face here at the western standard and a welcome one at that nice to have you back

00:20:50.400 and good luck with everything you do especially in the red tape production so josh thank you

00:20:57.400 very much and for the western standard i'm nigel annafort

00:21:13.140 Thank you.

Western Standard - March 23, 2026

HANNAFORD： As the NDP deliberates, the Liberals are waiting to pounce...

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