00:02:14.380What does Jerusalem, what does D.C., what do they want to achieve over the long term?
00:02:20.940And what does victory look like at the end of this war?
00:02:23.900I think you're actually probably quite a ways off in terms of this being over anytime soon.
00:02:31.300My sense is that this is going to take many, many weeks, probably months, and the goalposts of victory could move incrementally as time goes by and as certain geopolitical and military realities become clearer.
00:02:50.580You mentioned massive hits to the regime's military forces, their navy, their ballistic missile program, their abilities to launch drones, and so on and so forth. That's all great.
00:03:06.100But does that do a lot for the people of Iran over the long term who want to be liberated from the Islamic Republic? Probably not.
00:03:14.560Has it done anything in terms of getting the actual enriched uranium out of Iran? Not yet. Are we on the brink of a regime change? It doesn't seem so.
00:03:30.880so as i said the goalposts uh could move the the metric of success could change
00:03:39.620but right now it still feels like there's a lot of work to do and i think this is going to drag
00:03:45.540out for quite a while now in the straits of hormuz we have a number of ships stranded
00:03:51.440uh the iranians have still got some way of controlling that waterway the fact that
00:04:00.880a number of small mine layers were blown up yesterday suggests that there may be others
00:04:07.900because i don't think we knew about them earlier in the week um also drones how many drones do you
00:04:14.940need to retain to still pose a credible threat how is that what are your predictions for that
00:04:22.740in the next week well my sense is that the iranians of the regime that they're going to
00:04:29.980really start ticking a lot of people off by these attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
00:04:38.860That message has been clear that they are not to do that and that they are not to disrupt
00:04:44.060the flow of energy out of that part of the world. And that's exactly what they're doing.
00:04:49.660And I think that there are a lot of people who are going to become
00:04:53.420increasingly irritated with this unless the regime stops.
00:04:59.980And this is an administration that you don't want to irritate because, as they've said, they'll find you and they'll kill you.
00:05:09.320And, you know, the Americans are now signaling that there could be some strikes in those port areas of Iran.
00:05:20.120And that's what I would expect to see soon. And I think we're going to continue to see very, very heavy airstrikes.
00:05:26.700And I should also note that the Israelis have mentioned at the highest levels that there could be something quite spectacular around the corner.
00:05:38.480We don't know what that is, what that looks like.
00:05:42.140But I'll say this, the beeper operation that is now quite well known, that's not the end of it.
00:05:51.700the israelis the americans they have other tricks um up their sleeve and um when you start
00:05:59.240disrupting global energy markets and things of that nature um you might nudge those parties
00:06:06.300towards using you know other tools in their toolkit so to speak
00:06:11.480all right well we'll watch the scanners for that in israel i presume people are sleeping a little
00:06:19.420easier knowing that the the iranian regime has been set back so far in its weapons program
00:06:27.580what could you speculate on what this means in beijing the chinese got a lot of their oil from
00:06:36.140iran i think it was something like 13 of their supply right now they're not getting that they've
00:06:41.980also just lost venezuela so that's got to hurt is this actually more about china than it is about iran
00:06:55.820that's a great question and i think you're you're really on to something there that people need to
00:06:59.500be playing paying closer attention to and that of course is the china angle um but for now
00:07:06.620Nigel, I would say that the China element is more of a downstream situation that people should
00:07:18.520probably park for now because there's just so much to do and so much that could happen between
00:07:25.020Iran, the US, Israel, and other parties in the region, Gulf states. Obviously, you mentioned
00:07:31.840China's imports and what this is doing for them.
00:07:36.240China's watching this, and this is obviously sending a number of signals to Beijing
00:07:40.760and to the Communist Party there, but it's also not all bad for China.
00:07:50.600There could be other states in the region or across the world that are saying,
00:07:56.340well, look at the US, look at Israel, look at some of these Gulf states that are tied up in
00:08:03.560this mess, governments could potentially pivot towards Beijing. And we're seeing some of this,
00:08:10.200right? So that anti-American sentiment could be sort of accelerated by this war, which could
00:08:16.240actually be to the benefit of China and other unsavory regimes. So it's a lot to unpack.
00:08:24.980i would say yeah keep an eye on the china element here um but right now there's just so much that
00:08:32.080needs to be done in iran and i like i said earlier i think um jerusalem and dc are so far away from
00:08:39.220achieving um what what could be you know long-term success that the the priority should be watching
00:08:46.540what they do right now um as opposed to to following bej okay well i just asked the question
00:08:53.940because China has bailed out Iran before. In fact, they have made them a very significant
00:09:01.700player in the region. They probably think they were before, but after China had armed them and
00:09:07.860developed an ongoing relationship with them, even helping them get back on their feet after
00:09:13.780the Israelis attacked in 2025 or 2024. Memory fails me, but the Israelis had a go at the
00:09:26.180Iranians a few years ago. I think the Chinese played quite a large part in putting Iran back
00:09:34.580on its feet. Now, of course, they had this. You could make the argument that in pushing back on
00:09:42.660Iran, which of course was used to destabilize the whole area, the United States has actually
00:09:49.300dealt China a blow. I don't know what you think of the Hudson's Institute. They're certainly a
00:09:56.340conservative institution, and they go all the way back to Herman Kahn, who I had to study
00:10:01.060when I was at university, so I have given them some credibility. They make the point that
00:10:06.580described as an extraordinary assault on the world's leading state sponsor of terror, which is
00:10:14.500true, but it misses this critical dimension. For years, Beijing has spent billions of dollars
00:10:20.500building Iran into a structural asset. By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is
00:10:27.460dismantling, whether by design or by consequence, a pillar of China's regional architecture.
00:10:34.660And of course, they dismantled some more when they lifted Maduro out of Venezuela. Grand strategy, playing risk, but for real. What do you think?
00:10:46.480yeah i think there's a lot to be said about that and i think uh folks at hudson they know what
00:10:51.980they're talking about um and uh i would agree with all of that um look over the last uh number
00:10:58.980of years the last couple of decades there's really been a decoupling of um global powers
00:11:04.760global economies um and and allies um you know those that are with america and those that are
00:11:10.560with China or Russia. And we're seeing these sort of these clicks proliferate and these siloed
00:11:19.960dynamics take hold. And China and Iran are very much aligned and they've supported each other.
00:11:26.140China, as you noted, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Iran. They have really
00:11:33.220enabled Iran to build out that oppressive infrastructure that they've used so savagely
00:11:41.360and barbarically to subjugate the great people of Iran and to control freedom of movement,
00:11:51.420freedom of thought, access to information and surveillance. And so, yeah, this is the U.S.
00:11:58.140uh this they're going in there and they're they're they're hitting the iranian regime but of course
00:12:03.180yeah they are sending a message to beijing they're punching beijing right in the mouth
00:12:06.700and they're saying look you've wasted um hundreds of millions of dollars in in this part of the world
00:12:13.500um we're not going to allow this um to go on for much longer um and you don't have uh this isn't
00:12:21.900your sandbox to play in and make sort of a vassal state for Beijing. So yeah, Nigel, there's no doubt
00:12:30.140about it that this sends a message to China and that it weakens their grip in a country that
00:12:37.740they've probably seen as a very important part of their chessboard for years now. But like I said,
00:12:48.060that I think it's still too early to tell what this will mean for China or Iran over the long term.
00:12:55.060I mean, if indeed in a few weeks or a few months,
00:12:58.760this war sort of fizzles off or comes to some sort of strange conclusion,
00:13:05.000and Khamenei's son is all of a sudden the new hardline supreme leader,
00:13:09.920and he's in power, and the regime is back up and operating,
00:13:14.500and you still have enriched uranium on the ground,
00:13:17.260And the regime would now be more emboldened than ever. They would take this as a as a victory, as a as a almost a holy victory in many ways, a divine victory. That's not going to hurt Beijing at all. If anything, it's going to open up the greater opportunities for China.
00:13:38.560So I think China could be hurt through this.
00:13:42.740And they're probably looking at the situation now going, well, this isn't great for us.
00:13:46.680But over the long term, it might not be as significant as we think right now.
00:13:50.720Well, they certainly have a reputation for taking the long term view of things.
00:13:55.140In the short term, does this make a Chinese intervention in Taiwan more or less likely?
00:14:02.820I don't think it makes it more likely or less likely.
00:14:05.940I think China is probably in a bit of a holding pattern right now.
00:14:10.660They probably want to see what happens like everybody else over the coming weeks and months.
00:14:17.480Although, you know, the case could be made, and I'm sure there are analysts out there saying this,
00:14:22.360that with America so heavily tied up in Iran, you know,
00:14:28.120This could be an opportune time to go in and achieve what they've said that they wanted to do for many, many decades now in Taiwan because the Americans are distracted and they have infrastructure and assets that are in theater right now that would be difficult for them to pull out and to pivot.
00:14:48.960So that argument could be made as well. But I don't think Beijing wants to do that. And they're seeing what's happening in Iran. Iran, the regime is getting absolutely annihilated. The Chinese don't want that.
00:15:06.900I think that they're probably seeing some of these historic operations, these precision strikes, these really devastating blows to Iran's military infrastructure. As strong as China is, no leader in their right mind is going to watch these videos and look at these developments and think, yeah, I could go up against that.
00:15:27.180America has the strongest military by far in the history of the world, and China's probably taking notes right now, and if anything, I would imagine it's probably making them pause a little bit more than anything else.
00:15:42.800Okay, let's talk about Israel and the Middle East.
00:15:47.440How does Israel exploit this situation to their own benefit, and what does success look like for them?
00:15:55.120yeah it's really tough nigel um you know i think in the early days of this campaign
00:16:02.620there was real shock and awe um there was some you know sense of jubilation and excitement not
00:16:09.720just in israel but beyond i mean you're seeing key leaders just get removed uh like immediately
00:16:15.880you're seeing key military installations being turned into dust uh you're seeing essentially
00:16:22.520whole elements of their military, such as their Navy, which you've talked about, just gone in the
00:16:28.280blink of an eye. And so those early days, a lot of people, myself included, were watching this
00:16:35.240going, wow, I mean, this is really unfolding more dramatically and faster than we expected.
00:16:42.180Victory is around the corner. Victory is probably a regime change. Victory is probably a no ballistic
00:16:48.780missile program any longer. Victory is probably a nuclear program that is not just punted down
00:16:55.700the road, but that's been vaporized. I think a lot of those illusions have now disappeared
00:17:04.420because it's coming into clear focus now that to actually do a lot of that, you can't just bomb
00:17:11.340your way into all of those objectives or into all of those successes. You can bomb your way
00:17:17.760very, very far and very close to achieving those things. Don't get me wrong.
00:17:23.120People often underestimate the power of military campaigns. Don't do that.
00:17:30.880If you're listening to this, I wouldn't want this to be taken the wrong way.
00:17:34.660Trust me, the U.S. military and the Israeli military can do a lot just by carrying out
00:17:42.440devastating airstrikes. But if you look at the enriched uranium that's buried under
00:17:51.100mountains of concrete and steel and rubble, well, how do you get that out of there? That's not just
00:17:57.180a simple task. Do you arm militias on the ground there? What's happening there? Again, that's just
00:18:04.400not going to be done overnight. How do you replace a regime? Well, you can't really. That has to sort
00:18:11.780have come from within? Are the people in a position now to do that? These are things that
00:18:18.380we don't know. And so I think victory, not only is victory, regardless of what that looks like,
00:18:24.940probably quite a ways off. I think victory really looks different to a lot of people.
00:18:32.000I would imagine if you're in Israel, and I know some of my colleagues at the Institute for National
00:18:37.040security studies would echo this. This is a, this is a lot to go through. The Israelis have
00:18:44.000gone through a lot. This didn't start 14 days ago, started like closer to three years ago
00:18:49.640with October 7th. And so you have a population that's exhausted. You have a population that's
00:18:55.200traumatized. And for them at the end of all of this, when it's all said and done and the sirens
00:19:01.840stop whaling. Is it going to be enough when analysts stand up there and go, yeah, we've
00:19:08.180bought ourselves three years? I don't think so. I think they want something a heck of a lot more
00:19:13.680substantive than that. So I think victory to them looks like a complete removal of the nuclear
00:19:20.620program, an end to the ballistic threat, and maybe a regime change. And when you ask the Iranian
00:19:27.020diaspora, what does victory look like to you? It doesn't look like the supreme leader being
00:19:34.800eliminated and his son just replacing him and becoming a hardline, tyrannical religious fanatic
00:19:42.520for the next 50 years. That's not what they want. So victory to them, I think, is a long way
00:19:48.480off as well. So Nigel, this has to go on, I think, like I said, for weeks and months.
00:19:56.280and some more things need to be put in motion.
00:19:59.920One thing that I would tell people to keep an eye on is
00:20:02.260if there are reports of pretty large-scale defections,
00:20:07.660that would be a good sign that maybe the regime is weaker