Western Standard - HANNAFORD： Beyond the bombs... why airstrikes may not topple Iranian junta

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show

00:00:21.840 of the Western Standard. It is Thursday, March the 12th. President Trump says it's almost all

00:00:27.960 over in Iran. The next day, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says they've just had their most intense

00:00:34.560 day of attacks. Whatever is going on in Iran, there can't be much left worth blowing up. But 0.99

00:00:41.480 maybe this wasn't just about Iran. With us tonight is Casey Babb. He is the director of

00:00:48.220 the Promised Land Project with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa. A fellow with the Royal

00:00:56.700 United Services Institution in London as well, and a widely consulted expert on security at home

00:01:03.020 and abroad. Welcome to the show, Dr. Babb. Thanks very much for having me.

00:01:09.180 Oh, you're very welcome. So what do you make of it? When President Trump says the U.S. is nearly

00:01:15.020 done in Iran and Secretary of War Pete Hexeth says the next day that they've just had their

00:01:19.820 most intensive day of attacks, the default reaction from people who don't like Trump is that

00:01:25.580 confusion reigns. On the other hand, the U.S. has just essentially disarmed Iran, sunk its navy,

00:01:31.740 destroyed its air force, blown up most of its missile launchers, eliminated the senior

00:01:37.100 cadre of leadership. So what do you think was the goal and has Trump achieved it?

00:01:45.020 Well, my sense is that that statement in terms of the war being possibly near the finish line

00:01:54.700 was possibly the president's way of trying to stabilize the markets to a certain extent.

00:02:01.400 And I believe that that may have worked, at least temporarily.

00:02:06.800 However, if we zoom out a little bit and we ask ourselves,

00:02:10.420 well, what's been achieved thus far?

00:02:14.380 What does Jerusalem, what does D.C., what do they want to achieve over the long term?

00:02:20.940 And what does victory look like at the end of this war?

00:02:23.900 I think you're actually probably quite a ways off in terms of this being over anytime soon.

00:02:31.300 My sense is that this is going to take many, many weeks, probably months, and the goalposts of victory could move incrementally as time goes by and as certain geopolitical and military realities become clearer.

00:02:50.580 You mentioned massive hits to the regime's military forces, their navy, their ballistic missile program, their abilities to launch drones, and so on and so forth. That's all great.

00:03:06.100 But does that do a lot for the people of Iran over the long term who want to be liberated from the Islamic Republic? Probably not. 0.97

00:03:14.560 Has it done anything in terms of getting the actual enriched uranium out of Iran? Not yet. Are we on the brink of a regime change? It doesn't seem so.

00:03:30.880 so as i said the goalposts uh could move the the metric of success could change

00:03:39.620 but right now it still feels like there's a lot of work to do and i think this is going to drag

00:03:45.540 out for quite a while now in the straits of hormuz we have a number of ships stranded

00:03:51.440 uh the iranians have still got some way of controlling that waterway the fact that

00:04:00.880 a number of small mine layers were blown up yesterday suggests that there may be others

00:04:07.900 because i don't think we knew about them earlier in the week um also drones how many drones do you

00:04:14.940 need to retain to still pose a credible threat how is that what are your predictions for that

00:04:22.740 in the next week well my sense is that the iranians of the regime that they're going to

00:04:29.980 really start ticking a lot of people off by these attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:04:38.860 That message has been clear that they are not to do that and that they are not to disrupt

00:04:44.060 the flow of energy out of that part of the world. And that's exactly what they're doing.

00:04:49.660 And I think that there are a lot of people who are going to become

00:04:53.420 increasingly irritated with this unless the regime stops. 0.82

00:04:59.980 And this is an administration that you don't want to irritate because, as they've said, they'll find you and they'll kill you.

00:05:09.320 And, you know, the Americans are now signaling that there could be some strikes in those port areas of Iran.

00:05:20.120 And that's what I would expect to see soon. And I think we're going to continue to see very, very heavy airstrikes.

00:05:26.700 And I should also note that the Israelis have mentioned at the highest levels that there could be something quite spectacular around the corner.

00:05:38.480 We don't know what that is, what that looks like.

00:05:42.140 But I'll say this, the beeper operation that is now quite well known, that's not the end of it.

00:05:51.700 the israelis the americans they have other tricks um up their sleeve and um when you start

00:05:59.240 disrupting global energy markets and things of that nature um you might nudge those parties

00:06:06.300 towards using you know other tools in their toolkit so to speak

00:06:11.480 all right well we'll watch the scanners for that in israel i presume people are sleeping a little

00:06:19.420 easier knowing that the the iranian regime has been set back so far in its weapons program

00:06:27.580 what could you speculate on what this means in beijing the chinese got a lot of their oil from

00:06:36.140 iran i think it was something like 13 of their supply right now they're not getting that they've

00:06:41.980 also just lost venezuela so that's got to hurt is this actually more about china than it is about iran

00:06:55.820 that's a great question and i think you're you're really on to something there that people need to

00:06:59.500 be playing paying closer attention to and that of course is the china angle um but for now

00:07:06.620 Nigel, I would say that the China element is more of a downstream situation that people should

00:07:18.520 probably park for now because there's just so much to do and so much that could happen between

00:07:25.020 Iran, the US, Israel, and other parties in the region, Gulf states. Obviously, you mentioned

00:07:31.840 China's imports and what this is doing for them.

00:07:36.240 China's watching this, and this is obviously sending a number of signals to Beijing

00:07:40.760 and to the Communist Party there, but it's also not all bad for China.

00:07:48.860 There could be opportunity here.

00:07:50.600 There could be other states in the region or across the world that are saying,

00:07:56.340 well, look at the US, look at Israel, look at some of these Gulf states that are tied up in 0.64

00:08:03.560 this mess, governments could potentially pivot towards Beijing. And we're seeing some of this,

00:08:10.200 right? So that anti-American sentiment could be sort of accelerated by this war, which could

00:08:16.240 actually be to the benefit of China and other unsavory regimes. So it's a lot to unpack.

00:08:24.980 i would say yeah keep an eye on the china element here um but right now there's just so much that

00:08:32.080 needs to be done in iran and i like i said earlier i think um jerusalem and dc are so far away from

00:08:39.220 achieving um what what could be you know long-term success that the the priority should be watching

00:08:46.540 what they do right now um as opposed to to following bej okay well i just asked the question

00:08:53.940 because China has bailed out Iran before. In fact, they have made them a very significant 0.99

00:09:01.700 player in the region. They probably think they were before, but after China had armed them and

00:09:07.860 developed an ongoing relationship with them, even helping them get back on their feet after

00:09:13.780 the Israelis attacked in 2025 or 2024. Memory fails me, but the Israelis had a go at the 0.57

00:09:26.180 Iranians a few years ago. I think the Chinese played quite a large part in putting Iran back 1.00

00:09:34.580 on its feet. Now, of course, they had this. You could make the argument that in pushing back on

00:09:42.660 Iran, which of course was used to destabilize the whole area, the United States has actually 0.99

00:09:49.300 dealt China a blow. I don't know what you think of the Hudson's Institute. They're certainly a 1.00

00:09:56.340 conservative institution, and they go all the way back to Herman Kahn, who I had to study

00:10:01.060 when I was at university, so I have given them some credibility. They make the point that

00:10:06.580 described as an extraordinary assault on the world's leading state sponsor of terror, which is

00:10:14.500 true, but it misses this critical dimension. For years, Beijing has spent billions of dollars

00:10:20.500 building Iran into a structural asset. By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is

00:10:27.460 dismantling, whether by design or by consequence, a pillar of China's regional architecture.

00:10:34.660 And of course, they dismantled some more when they lifted Maduro out of Venezuela. Grand strategy, playing risk, but for real. What do you think?

00:10:46.480 yeah i think there's a lot to be said about that and i think uh folks at hudson they know what

00:10:51.980 they're talking about um and uh i would agree with all of that um look over the last uh number

00:10:58.980 of years the last couple of decades there's really been a decoupling of um global powers

00:11:04.760 global economies um and and allies um you know those that are with america and those that are

00:11:10.560 with China or Russia. And we're seeing these sort of these clicks proliferate and these siloed

00:11:19.960 dynamics take hold. And China and Iran are very much aligned and they've supported each other.

00:11:26.140 China, as you noted, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Iran. They have really

00:11:33.220 enabled Iran to build out that oppressive infrastructure that they've used so savagely 0.99

00:11:41.360 and barbarically to subjugate the great people of Iran and to control freedom of movement, 0.81

00:11:51.420 freedom of thought, access to information and surveillance. And so, yeah, this is the U.S.

00:11:58.140 uh this they're going in there and they're they're they're hitting the iranian regime but of course 0.74

00:12:03.180 yeah they are sending a message to beijing they're punching beijing right in the mouth

00:12:06.700 and they're saying look you've wasted um hundreds of millions of dollars in in this part of the world

00:12:13.500 um we're not going to allow this um to go on for much longer um and you don't have uh this isn't

00:12:21.900 your sandbox to play in and make sort of a vassal state for Beijing. So yeah, Nigel, there's no doubt 0.88

00:12:30.140 about it that this sends a message to China and that it weakens their grip in a country that

00:12:37.740 they've probably seen as a very important part of their chessboard for years now. But like I said,

00:12:48.060 that I think it's still too early to tell what this will mean for China or Iran over the long term.

00:12:55.060 I mean, if indeed in a few weeks or a few months,

00:12:58.760 this war sort of fizzles off or comes to some sort of strange conclusion,

00:13:05.000 and Khamenei's son is all of a sudden the new hardline supreme leader,

00:13:09.920 and he's in power, and the regime is back up and operating,

00:13:14.500 and you still have enriched uranium on the ground,

00:13:17.260 And the regime would now be more emboldened than ever. They would take this as a as a victory, as a as a almost a holy victory in many ways, a divine victory. That's not going to hurt Beijing at all. If anything, it's going to open up the greater opportunities for China.

00:13:38.560 So I think China could be hurt through this.

00:13:42.040 Yes, of course.

00:13:42.740 And they're probably looking at the situation now going, well, this isn't great for us.

00:13:46.680 But over the long term, it might not be as significant as we think right now.

00:13:50.720 Well, they certainly have a reputation for taking the long term view of things.

00:13:55.140 In the short term, does this make a Chinese intervention in Taiwan more or less likely?

00:14:02.820 I don't think it makes it more likely or less likely.

00:14:05.940 I think China is probably in a bit of a holding pattern right now.

00:14:10.660 They probably want to see what happens like everybody else over the coming weeks and months.

00:14:17.480 Although, you know, the case could be made, and I'm sure there are analysts out there saying this,

00:14:22.360 that with America so heavily tied up in Iran, you know,

00:14:28.120 This could be an opportune time to go in and achieve what they've said that they wanted to do for many, many decades now in Taiwan because the Americans are distracted and they have infrastructure and assets that are in theater right now that would be difficult for them to pull out and to pivot.

00:14:48.960 So that argument could be made as well. But I don't think Beijing wants to do that. And they're seeing what's happening in Iran. Iran, the regime is getting absolutely annihilated. The Chinese don't want that.

00:15:06.900 I think that they're probably seeing some of these historic operations, these precision strikes, these really devastating blows to Iran's military infrastructure. As strong as China is, no leader in their right mind is going to watch these videos and look at these developments and think, yeah, I could go up against that.

00:15:27.180 America has the strongest military by far in the history of the world, and China's probably taking notes right now, and if anything, I would imagine it's probably making them pause a little bit more than anything else.

00:15:42.800 Okay, let's talk about Israel and the Middle East.

00:15:47.440 How does Israel exploit this situation to their own benefit, and what does success look like for them?

00:15:55.120 yeah it's really tough nigel um you know i think in the early days of this campaign 0.99

00:16:02.620 there was real shock and awe um there was some you know sense of jubilation and excitement not

00:16:09.720 just in israel but beyond i mean you're seeing key leaders just get removed uh like immediately

00:16:15.880 you're seeing key military installations being turned into dust uh you're seeing essentially

00:16:22.520 whole elements of their military, such as their Navy, which you've talked about, just gone in the

00:16:28.280 blink of an eye. And so those early days, a lot of people, myself included, were watching this

00:16:35.240 going, wow, I mean, this is really unfolding more dramatically and faster than we expected.

00:16:42.180 Victory is around the corner. Victory is probably a regime change. Victory is probably a no ballistic

00:16:48.780 missile program any longer. Victory is probably a nuclear program that is not just punted down

00:16:55.700 the road, but that's been vaporized. I think a lot of those illusions have now disappeared

00:17:04.420 because it's coming into clear focus now that to actually do a lot of that, you can't just bomb

00:17:11.340 your way into all of those objectives or into all of those successes. You can bomb your way

00:17:17.760 very, very far and very close to achieving those things. Don't get me wrong.

00:17:23.120 People often underestimate the power of military campaigns. Don't do that.

00:17:30.880 If you're listening to this, I wouldn't want this to be taken the wrong way.

00:17:34.660 Trust me, the U.S. military and the Israeli military can do a lot just by carrying out

00:17:42.440 devastating airstrikes. But if you look at the enriched uranium that's buried under

00:17:51.100 mountains of concrete and steel and rubble, well, how do you get that out of there? That's not just

00:17:57.180 a simple task. Do you arm militias on the ground there? What's happening there? Again, that's just

00:18:04.400 not going to be done overnight. How do you replace a regime? Well, you can't really. That has to sort

00:18:11.780 have come from within? Are the people in a position now to do that? These are things that

00:18:18.380 we don't know. And so I think victory, not only is victory, regardless of what that looks like,

00:18:24.940 probably quite a ways off. I think victory really looks different to a lot of people.

00:18:32.000 I would imagine if you're in Israel, and I know some of my colleagues at the Institute for National

00:18:37.040 security studies would echo this. This is a, this is a lot to go through. The Israelis have 1.00

00:18:44.000 gone through a lot. This didn't start 14 days ago, started like closer to three years ago

00:18:49.640 with October 7th. And so you have a population that's exhausted. You have a population that's

00:18:55.200 traumatized. And for them at the end of all of this, when it's all said and done and the sirens

00:19:01.840 stop whaling. Is it going to be enough when analysts stand up there and go, yeah, we've

00:19:08.180 bought ourselves three years? I don't think so. I think they want something a heck of a lot more

00:19:13.680 substantive than that. So I think victory to them looks like a complete removal of the nuclear

00:19:20.620 program, an end to the ballistic threat, and maybe a regime change. And when you ask the Iranian

00:19:27.020 diaspora, what does victory look like to you? It doesn't look like the supreme leader being 0.95

00:19:34.800 eliminated and his son just replacing him and becoming a hardline, tyrannical religious fanatic 0.84

00:19:42.520 for the next 50 years. That's not what they want. So victory to them, I think, is a long way

00:19:48.480 off as well. So Nigel, this has to go on, I think, like I said, for weeks and months.

00:19:56.280 and some more things need to be put in motion.

00:19:59.920 One thing that I would tell people to keep an eye on is

00:20:02.260 if there are reports of pretty large-scale defections,

00:20:07.660 that would be a good sign that maybe the regime is weaker

00:20:11.120 than it appears to be right now.

00:20:13.280 So those are the sorts of things that you might want to watch for.

00:20:17.320 Internal clashes would be another one.

00:20:19.900 So there's a lot of dynamics here at play,

00:20:22.960 But it's not a simple, we went in, bombed them, and we won sort of situation. 0.96

00:20:30.160 Well, I guess we should leave it there.

00:20:32.820 There is no certainty.

00:20:34.320 But something has certainly changed.

00:20:37.080 And I have to think that the ability of Tehran to place markers around the region,

00:20:47.280 fund Hezbollah, fund Hamas, fund the Houthis, 0.77

00:20:50.040 It's going to take a, I use three years, it's going to take some time before, if ever, they can do that again.

00:20:57.980 They're out of ammo.

00:20:59.240 So, we'll take that as a good sign and hope for the best, I guess.

00:21:05.860 Any last words on it before we go?

00:21:10.020 Well, I would just say this, you know, right now, of course, and for obvious reasons, people are focused on the military,

00:21:16.180 the military situation right now, the strikes, what assets are being removed, what military

00:21:22.380 leaders are being removed from the battlefield. And that's all fine. And I understand that.

00:21:27.700 But the Iranian people right now are in a terrible situation. Both inside Iran, there's a lot of 1.00

00:21:35.560 anguish and anxiety and turmoil and outside Iran too. So if you're watching this and you're part

00:21:42.140 of the Iranian community, please know that a lot of us are with you, and we support you.

00:21:48.620 And while all eyes seem to be on the military campaign, there are a lot of us, myself included,

00:21:54.200 who are paying attention to your situation in particular, and I just hope that there

00:22:00.240 are brighter days for the great people of Iran around the corner.

00:22:03.440 And I think we all echo that aspiration. Good people.

00:22:08.680 thank you Dr. Babb

00:22:11.140 for the Western Standard

00:22:13.500 I'm Nigel Hannaford

Western Standard - March 15, 2026

HANNAFORD： Beyond the bombs... why airstrikes may not topple Iranian junta

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