HANNAFORD： Can Canada be defended at all？
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Summary
Roy Rempel served as a policy adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper for several years, and is now the senior policy advisor to the Prime Minister, John R. Carney. In this episode, he talks about the challenges facing the Canadian Armed Forces, and what the government should do to address them.
Transcript
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Good evening, Western Standards viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show
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of the Western Standard. It is Thursday, February the 12th. My guest this week is Roy Rempel,
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and our subject is National Defense, as Mr. Carney sees it. Full disclosure, Roy and I served
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together in the Harper Prime Minister's office for several years, where he was Policy Advisor
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on Defense. Speechwriting was the better for his advice, I should tell you. Roy, welcome to the
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show. Thanks, very nice to be here. Well, good to have you. Over the last six months, Roy, Prime
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Minister Carney has said a lot of things that I think we could both agree with about national
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defense, which may be a bit of a surprise to those watching this show. But we would think
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that. He has made several references to strengthening Canada's capabilities, our ongoing commitments
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to NATO and raising spending significantly, looking at the numbers here, doubling it by 2030, in fact.
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But is any of this credible? Or is this just talk? The Canadian Armed Forces is way under strength,
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so he is starting from behind. People are actually leaving because they don't like the feminization and
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the disrespect for the warrior culture that's been handed down as government policy for the last few
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years. And as you found in your tenure under Mr. Harper, even with a prime minister who is highly
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sympathetic to the military corps, it's hard to buy equipment. Now, assuming Mr. Carney is sincere,
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Well, I think some of it, you know, you're talking about sort of credibility, I think some of it is
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credible, particularly some of the immediate measures to stop the bleeding within
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the Canadian defense establishment. You know, of the $9 billion that Mr. Carney announced in
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last year, about $2.6 billion of that is for pay. And that's particularly vital, because
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you know, we've had a situation particularly well, for the last 10 years, the Department of National
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Defense has not met its recruiting targets. One of the factors is pay. So there are measures to
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to increase pay significantly in order to address particularly the retention and the ability,
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the attention retention issue and the ability to attract people. You know, there's things money for
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health for improved health benefits. There's money for repair and maintenance of equipment, which is
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particularly important because some of our equipment is very old. The the Halifax class frigates are in
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the range of 30 years old. The Victoria class submarines are in the range of 35 years old. And the CFA teens are
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as much as 40 to 45 years old. So you're going to need money in order to just maintain a certain level of
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capability and to stop the bleeding. You may recall, former Defense Minister Bill Blair talked about the
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Canadian Armed Forces being in a death spiral. And that's very much the case. Even this year, the
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the commander of the Pacific Fleet, Admiral Patchell said that the Navy is about one quarter under its
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authorized strength level, and it's about it's short about 1000 marine technicians. The Auditor General
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talked about serious shortages of pilots and aircraft technicians. So pay is one way to address that. And
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it's probably been long overdue. Well, it has been long overdue. And so those elements in what Mr.
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Carney is talking about, and in a different approach by the current Liberal government over the previous
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Liberal government, that that is credible. I would say, you know, in the long term, if what Mr. Carney said at
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Davos is what he actually believes, is that, you know, we are now in a world of predatory great powers,
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great powers that don't believe in the current international order. And I think there's
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considerable evidence for that. Well, then it's going to require an enormous effort. And it's going
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to have to start with a clear defense strategy, a clear identification of threats, and a clear
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identification of what we can count on our allies for, and what we can't count our allies for. And
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filling that gap of what we can't count our allies for, could be well, is likely to be an extremely
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Well, certainly, pay is is vital. I don't think anybody begrudges the troops getting a pay raise.
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I understand that comparatively speaking, it's pretty low, what they've been receiving. So that that is
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good. But do you think that men and women actually join the armed forces for the sake of the money,
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in any case, isn't there something more driving them, a sense of national obligation, maybe a lust
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for adventure, maybe a number of things like that, but everything that's sort of subsumed in the two
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words warrior culture. The warrior culture has been under considerable pressure in the last few years,
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symbolized, I think, in everybody's minds by the tampons in the men's washroom, because Lord knows,
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well, who knows. Do you think that that's actually what drives people to serve, is a sense of duty and
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honor? And if so, do you think Mr. Carney has any real sense of that, that he would emphasize that?
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How is DEI going to do with Mr. Carney at the helm?
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Well, I think that is part of the challenge in the sense that what what the prime minister has said
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so far is very high level. He's talked about a new world order. And he's talked about the need to
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adjust to that new world order. But if you look at the details of what is actually occurring,
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you know, I've sort of looked at some of the equipment purchases over the past,
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over the past year or so. And we bought HIMARS multiple launch rockets from the United States,
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we bought new army tactical vehicles from the United States just yesterday. The government quietly
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indicated that it was buying long lead items for another 14 F-35 aircraft in addition to the 16
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we're already contracted for. So that's obviously notwithstanding the review of the F-35 purchase.
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So it seems like if you look at what they're actually doing, the prime minister is talking
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about this diversification. But what they actually seem to be doing is continuing with a lot of the
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same old same patterns of equipment purchases. And I think that's really where the details are going
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to have to start to match the rhetoric. Otherwise, the rhetoric is going to look particularly empty.
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And when you're talking about personnel policies, like, you know, you've mentioned, we've had very
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little about, you know, the, if you're going to buy all this equipment, we're talking about buying 12
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submarines, we're talking about buying new Corvettes in the future, well, you actually have people have
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to have people to crew them. So your personnel policy has to match your procurement policy. And so far,
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I've seen very little political attention being paid to that sort of level of detail. And what we do
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know, if you look at recruitment policy over the past 10 years, is that it hasn't worked. It's been
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very focused on diversity, equity and inclusion. But it hasn't actually worked, we haven't met a single
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recruitment target in the past 10 years. Now last year, they're saying that things have started to
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pick up. But the hole that we've dug for ourselves, the death spiral that former minister Bill Blair talked
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about is still there. So the DND, DND, I'll put it to you, the DND needs to drop the DEI. Agreed? Disagree?
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Well, I think that, you know, there should be only two priorities, if we're really living in the world,
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the Prime Minister is talking about, there should be two priorities in terms of recruitment, the
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operational needs of the Canadian Armed Forces and merit, who can make the operational needs. If you look at
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all the various other recruitment objectives, 25.1% females, I'm not sure why it's 0.1%, why it requires
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that level of precision, we're nowhere close to meeting those kinds of targets that have been set,
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and they were set a decade ago, we're at about 18%. So despite strenuous efforts, I think you can say the
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current policy is not working. If you want an armed forces that's going to be effective, you have to focus
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on two things, the operational needs of the armed forces, and the people required to fill those
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needs. That should be pretty much about it, but it's going to be cycle, it's going to be very difficult
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for them to abandon policies that they are so highly committed to. I don't see any indication that
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there's any willingness to do that at all, quite frankly. Well, maybe they should have a chat with
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Pete Hexeth. I want to take you back to what you said about the F-35 purchase. That first tranche of 16 jets,
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I believe deliveries are supposed to start in the next few years, but in the next year or two, really,
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but if you're talking about, you know, first aircraft being delivered, that doesn't necessarily
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translate into a capability. And if you're talking about real capabilities, then you're talking
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a few more years down the road. I think they're sort of setting the objective of the early 2030s to
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stand up a real capability and finally phase out the CFA teams. But again, you're going to need to
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address what the Auditor General talked about in terms of pilot shortages and technician shortages. So
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again, your personnel policy has to match your procurement objectives.
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Yes. There's been much discussion, Roy, about the possibility of the Swedish griffon fighter being
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considered as a main replacement, but it strikes me that they're not going to want to run a mixed
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fleet. So once we start receiving F-35s at all, it's not like we're going to get 16 F-35s and then
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fill out the inventory with something else. So am I right to say that if they take delivery of the
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first one, they're going to take delivery of all of them?
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Well, that's not clear yet from the review. It's supposed to be a review, you know, are we going
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to have a mixed fleet? Are we going to have all F-35s or are we going to switch to something else like
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the griffon fighter? I think what's been indicated yesterday is really the RCAF and the DND really do
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want the F-35, which is why they're putting money into the long lead items. So that's clear the
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direction that DND wants to go. Whether, you know, the government is going to be prepared to do that,
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I suspect there may be holding it as part of a broader negotiation with the United States on trade
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issues and so on. You know, we'll move forward with some of these defense acquisition, with the defense
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acquisition like the F-35. If we get some movement on trade issues, I don't know. But I suspect, I think it's
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mostly a bargaining chip that Mr. Carney is using and we're almost certainly going to
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stick with the F-35. I'd be very surprised if we didn't because that would be a major change
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in our defense relationship with the United States. So why is it so hard to buy equipment?
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I want to just insert an anecdote that will undoubtedly be familiar to you. And that is that when we had
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forces deployed in Afghanistan, they were getting blown up as they drove the roads because they,
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you know, the other side would plant an explosive device in the culvert or a LAV would drive over and
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they press the button, people would be killed, the vehicle damaged. So we really needed helicopters to
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get around, but we couldn't get any somehow. And it was only when we worked out a deal with the Americans
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to pick up six of their hard-worked helicopters in theater. And then the RCAF technicians made a heroic
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attempt, a successful attempt, to get these things flying and reliable. Only when we did that did we
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actually have helicopter in capability in Afghanistan. And that's when there was a war on. In peacetime,
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it seems to be incredibly difficult to buy equipment. Why is that?
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Well, you have a very cumbersome procurement process, as the previous government, our government
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found. You have a military which is focused on getting the best equipment. You have a finance
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department that's interested in keeping costs down. You have Industry Canada, whatever the current
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iteration of that, what is now, but Industry Canada in our day, who are interested in getting the
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maximum industrial benefits. That process can become extremely laborious and very, very long-term.
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And I think in Afghanistan, we just didn't have the time to go through those procurement process. So we
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just started buying equipment very much off the shelf as rapidly as possible, not just for the mission
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in Afghanistan, but also address pressing needs in Canada, such as procurement of tactical transport
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aircraft and so on. So we just simply went to buying off the shelf and buying very quickly,
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because in Afghanistan, it was an urgent need where we had slipped far behind the capability that was
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required to sustain that mission. And I think it is something that the current government's going to
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have to look at now, you know, if you're really talking about the buildup that they're talking
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about, you know, you're going to have to move very quickly and at a speed level that we're not
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accustomed to at all. For instance, in acquiring the submarines, for instance, which are, you know,
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you talk about acquiring the submarines, but they're probably a decade, maybe even a decade and a half down
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the road in terms of actually seeing them delivered, simply because foreign yards, you know, are also
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there's a lot of orders for foreign yards. So it's not easy to get in the procurement pipeline.
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So you're gonna have to move very fast at a speed that we're not used to. So here again,
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you know, there we have these big aspirations, but you need to actually have policies in place
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that are going to, A, get the stuff bought quickly, and then B, have the personnel there to actually run
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the equipment when it's being delivered. And we have massive shortages in personnel right now.
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Now, I seem to recall reading that Mr. Carney has established a fast-track office for the purpose
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of defense procurement. If he was prepared to take a question from the Western Standard, I would want
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to ask him, what difference is this going to make? Whose toes are you prepared to step on in Industry Canada
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or in finance, for that matter, in the armed forces themselves, in order to get this done? Do you have
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any reservations about a fast-track office for military procurement?
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No, but I think, you know, I think here again, here defense, the sort of dilemma confronting defense
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is the dilemma we're facing across the board with respect to, for instance, getting energy corridors
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built. We're gonna have to move at a pace that we're not accustomed to. And so far, I see very little
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evidence that we are prepared to move at that pace. You know, there are all sorts of challenges that are
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going to emerge that the current government isn't even fully aware of yet. So, you know, and we found
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that when we launched the national shipbuilding strategy back in 2010. Pardon me?
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So, what kind of unforeseen challenges might emerge? Well, they're talking about, you know,
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building up Canadian industry to deliver the types of capabilities that Canada requires. A very Canada,
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Canadian industry focused strategy. That's very important. But we can't underestimate the complexities
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of actually doing that. And I think, you know, our government found that out when we launched the
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national shipbuilding strategy, which is rolling out ships today. But that national shipbuilding
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strategy was launched in 2010. We found it was incredibly complex to modernize our existing shipbuilding
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and Canada to get the infrastructure in place in Halifax in British Columbia. And the timelines that we had
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initially set proved very difficult to meet. So, if you're now talking about doing that sort of across the board in
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terms of defense procurement, you're looking at a massive undertaking that is really going to have to
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to have a government with will to cut through red tape, to have a very hands on detailed management of
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day to day procurement challenges, and to simply override obstacles when they when they emerge. And,
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you know, I think a defense is defense industrial strategy, I understand is going to be launched today,
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as we're talking, and that's what I'd be looking for in there. What to what extent are they looking at,
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you know, the management challenges, and the measures that are in place to actually speed up the
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process, in a marked way. And we'll have to look for that in today's announcement, I think.
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Okay, so, yeah, Roy, I'd like you now to take you to what Mr. Carney said about defense in Davos.
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I think it's generally acknowledged that Mr. Harper, our guy was the only Prime Minister to spend much
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time in the Arctic. Since 2016, when the Liberals came to power, they've not gone there very much at
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all. So, not north of the Arctic Circle. But Mr. Carney had this to say at Davos. He says,
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So, we're working with our NATO allies, including the Nordic Baltic Eight, to further secure the
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Alliance's northern and western flanks, including through Canada's unprecedented investments in
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over-the-horizon radar and submarines and aircraft and boots on the ground. Now, we've just said,
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or you've just said, that the submarines and the aircraft are a long way off in the distance,
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and that they've got a serious issue with recruitment. So, I have to ask you, without being
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partisan, was Mr. Carney really making any sense? Like, we don't even shoot down Chinese weather
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balloons, but he is talking about securing the northern flank. What do you say? Is he knowing us?
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Well, I think some of the things that have been announced are important, like over-the-horizon
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radars. But again, you look at the delivery timeline, you're looking at the early 2030s,
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and that was announced a few years ago already. So, and that's very much short and medium term in a lot
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of ways, because that's about the same time that we would have the F-35s coming online if we switched to
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the Gryphon. Well, or the Gryphon, that's going to be another delay, probably, as we switch to a new
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fighter aircraft. If you're talking about the submarines, well, the submarines are not going
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to be Arctic-capable, really, because they're not going to be nuclear-powered. And to operate in the
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Arctic, you really need a nuclear capability. So, it's maybe going to be more on the fringes of the
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ice. And there you're talking about, as I mentioned, I think at least 10 to 15 years down the road.
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In what sense do you think Mr. Carney means to secure the northern flank?
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Well, again, I'm not sure that they've gotten into that level of detail, to be quite honest.
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I think there are a lot of aspirational statements that have been made, but the actual policy and hard
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procurement and personnel, improvement of the personnel situation, that's all going to have to
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catch up with the aspirations. And I think they're going to find that the challenges are
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far more monumental than they have anticipated. The capabilities that we have in the Arctic now
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are basically capabilities that the Harper government initiated back in the period prior to 2015. That's how
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long it takes to bring systems online. I mean, we launched the NanoCivic naval refueling port.
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That's still not fully operational. The Arctic offshore patrol ships, that's really a peacetime
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sovereignty protection capability. Again, launched in the Harper years. Those are just sort of coming
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online right now. And if we can find the people to crew them, then you could say we will have sort of a
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peacetime sovereignty protection capability. But in terms of actual hard defense capability, that's
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going to be that's a much longer timeframe. And quite frankly, it's why the Americans are very frustrated
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with us. Because, you know, we are flying 40 to 45 year old CF-18 fighter aircraft. And it's going to be a while
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before we have capabilities that are, you know, sort of fit the 21st century. So there's a lot of work to
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do that the government simply hasn't really got to yet. And we'll see what the defense industrial
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strategy says today, in terms of, you know, are they actually getting into these detailed challenges?
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Well, Roy, I so wanted to believe, obviously, I'm not a liberal, but on when it comes to national
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defense, I was hoping that the prime minister actually had something substantive to offer here.
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Kind of doesn't really look like it, does it? Look, thank you for coming on the program. I really
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appreciate it. It's great to see you again there at the the Harper events last week. And we'll have
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you back again when there's more to talk about, Roy, if you're willing to come.
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I'd be very, very honored to be back on the show.