Western Standard

00:00:00.560 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show.

00:00:21.520 It is Thursday, July the 17th. Last night in Edmonton, Premier Danielle Smith told about 400

00:00:27.920 people in an Alberta Next panel that Alberta has an Ottawa problem. From the response, it seems a lot

00:00:35.600 of people in the room felt the same way, but outside the UCP membership and the people who give

00:00:41.760 up a Wednesday night to go to a political meeting, how widespread is that sentiment? With me tonight

00:00:48.160 is UCP Founding President Erika Barutis. She's also Department Head of Applied Politics and Public

00:00:56.480 Affairs at Macamay College. Welcome Erika. Thanks for having me. Oh, it's always a pleasure. Erika, you

00:01:06.160 know the Premier fairly well, I think, founding president of the party. Why does the Premier

00:01:12.400 think that Alberta has an Ottawa problem? We reported last night that she said that. Well, you tell us.

00:01:20.560 I don't think many people should be surprised. Premier Jason Kenney also said we had an Ottawa

00:01:28.560 problem. He used a different term, which was standing up to Ottawa. This has been a decade-long thing. I

00:01:34.880 think Premier Smith is just maybe more direct in her communication. And from my understanding of last

00:01:40.160 night, that sentiment by the 450 individuals really resonated that even though Mark Carney may be better

00:01:48.720 for Alberta than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that you can't just flip a decade of frustration

00:01:57.600 in a month or two. And so I think that this is a position where the government and this Alberta Next

00:02:04.080 panel is looking to find pathways, have conversations, since both the Fairdale panel and just

00:02:11.600 getting a pulse check of what the sentiment by Albertans still truly is. Well, do you get the

00:02:19.440 sense that enough people care about this to actually give the Premier the kind of support that these

00:02:25.120 panels are supposed to generate? I mean, we've only had two so far. I hope that they'll do a series

00:02:32.720 over the time, especially in those urban centres. You know, it's all published. They're doing a lot of

00:02:37.920 road showing for this over the summer months, similar to what the Fair Deal panel said. But I

00:02:44.240 don't know if it's going to just be an echo chamber of validation or what will come out of it is the

00:02:50.080 bigger thing. So they can have the conversations. What are they doing to address what has been done

00:02:55.440 since the Fair Deal panel? What can be done? What will be done differently? And what does that mean

00:03:00.720 to Albertans in a landscape under Prime Minister Mark Carney than Justin Trudeau? Because the chess

00:03:10.320 board is different now. You said something a moment ago that I wasn't expecting. And when you said that

00:03:15.680 there was a thought that maybe Mr. Carney would be better for Alberta than Mr. Trudeau. Well, I mean,

00:03:22.000 obviously Mr. Trudeau was not good for Alberta, but is there a little optimism within the government?

00:03:28.080 I mean, you saw it even with how all the elected officials and leaders of our country, including

00:03:35.360 premiers and prime ministers, were playing nice during Stampede. There has been some movement

00:03:41.360 towards perhaps who I believe Mark Carney to be more so with secrets and scandals. But I will say he did

00:03:49.680 build the Building Canada Act, pushed it forward, you know, probably upset some of his base,

00:03:56.880 some of his colleagues, but held on that commitment that he ran on. And that opens up opportunities for

00:04:03.840 consultation for large infrastructure projects, including pipelines, to once again be feasible,

00:04:10.480 which were not the case under Justin Trudeau. And so I think there is optimism. However,

00:04:14.880 devils in the details with how these consultations with Indigenous peoples go,

00:04:20.880 how consultations interprovincially go. So there's still a lot of runway to see how much Carney is

00:04:29.120 willing to push. But I think the fact that he even introduced it, tabled it, and actually got it

00:04:35.200 through, is a sign that he's going to do differently than Justin Trudeau.

00:04:40.880 Okay. Well, if that's the feeling within government circles, that's great. You said the devil was in

00:04:48.960 the details. And quite frankly, down here, when we wrote about it, we were saying, well, really,

00:04:54.320 nothing has changed. He's got lots of exits if he doesn't want to go through with it. But anyway.

00:04:59.200 And that's the thing is, I'm being optimistic because we had a communist prime minister operating 0.99

00:05:04.480 under a liberal banner. Now we have a, let's say, progressive conservative, might be a stretch,

00:05:08.880 or a true liberal under a liberal government. So I think the fact that at least on the spectrum,

00:05:14.560 we've seen a shift back to the values and the beliefs that that party operated on,

00:05:19.760 is a little bit more comforting for someone like me that looks at, okay, the predictability,

00:05:25.680 the sustainability of this, and the feasibility, whereas Justin Trudeau was just on his little

00:05:31.200 climate change course. Well, I think he was on one that was largely laid out and explained to him by

00:05:39.280 by the president incumbent. You know, Mr. Carney has been pushing this for 20 years. And this is why I

00:05:44.000 think so many of us find it so difficult to think that he's, it's all changed now.

00:05:49.120 No. And I think to that point, I'm trying to be an optimist to say, I'll give the chance, but you

00:05:55.680 can't expect, and you and I are in the policy details, where an average Albertan hasn't seen

00:06:02.080 the proof in the pudding or the devil's in the detail. And so until there's a pipeline built, until

00:06:07.360 there is autonomy within the province and return to how the constitution is written, I think that the

00:06:14.720 sentiment that probably came out in that meeting last night will still resonate in large circles

00:06:21.040 across Alberta. Well, that's actually the next thing I wanted to ask you about. It's pretty clear

00:06:28.320 by the nature of the policy resolutions coming forward for the party convention in November,

00:06:34.640 there are a very large number of members of the UCP who are actively looking at a path to independence,

00:06:44.000 what it could look like, what the destination would be, how far they prepare to go.

00:06:51.040 There's an interest there. Do you have any sense of what the sentiment is

00:06:59.760 more widely in Alberta among people who aren't members of the UCP? Now, obviously, anybody who

00:07:06.640 voted NDP, I'd say they were poor market for the idea of independence. A lot of people did vote for the

00:07:12.960 NDP. On the other hand, there's probably, I would guess, a lot of UCP voters who have a sentimental,

00:07:23.760 maybe a practical attachment to the government of Canada. So, as these meetings go forward, to what

00:07:32.640 extent are they actually seeking input, and are they promotional, and where do you think people are in

00:07:38.320 Alberta on the matter of independence? I think that there's a few different circles. I think the

00:07:45.760 unfortunate thing is what the NDP is trying to do is say, and even broader circles of saying, like,

00:07:52.720 separation equals 51st state, which is very different than, I think, what a lot of people that may be

00:07:58.480 coined separatist, or separatist curious, or whatever you want to call it, that you'd want to know what that

00:08:04.560 path looks like. But that doesn't mean that you're going to go become the 51st state. There's individuals

00:08:10.000 that would want to explore separation under a dominion versus true independence, so still

00:08:17.920 respecting and working with the monarch, which has its own pathway challenges one way or the other.

00:08:24.800 The others are looking at, you know, what does independent look like with a market access? And so

00:08:31.440 there's the sentiment of separate separation, which I think there's more people than you'd think feel

00:08:37.440 that way because of the frustration that we had for the last decade. There's some people that,

00:08:42.400 like myself, would love to explore that, but at the same, well at the same time, seeing what Kearney does.

00:08:50.160 And so my hope is that not only are we looking, here was what the Fair Deal panel put forward,

00:08:56.080 here is our current environment, this is what we've learned, this is what we should be looking at,

00:09:00.720 these are the questions we missed, or the perspectives we missed. Again, I think that

00:09:06.320 there's going to be maybe, you know, less exploratory of how this is done by these conversations,

00:09:15.520 but I hope that the Alberta Next panel comes up with what that would look like to present to Albertans to

00:09:21.440 get, I want that full understanding before I would go to a ballot box to make a decision. I don't vote by

00:09:28.480 my sleeve or my heart, I vote with my gut and my brain. And so without that information,

00:09:33.760 I think it's very difficult. Similarly to, I think how a lot of people felt about leaving the CPP.

00:09:40.000 There's a sentiment there, but how you actually do it is a heck of a lot harder

00:09:43.440 in reality. And there just wasn't that roadmap that I think a lot of people that maybe have the

00:09:50.720 sentiment towards can actually tangibly understand.

00:09:54.720 I'm wondering, Erica, whether I'm right in assuming that many people think, well, we have the referendum,

00:10:01.920 and then if we vote for independence, we're on our way. I don't think it's quite that simple, is it?

00:10:07.200 Absolutely not. And like I said, there's different versions of what does independence look like?

00:10:12.480 Is it independence from all of Canada and removing the monarch? Is it independence there? Is it, like you said,

00:10:19.200 with the UCP policies? I wish they had more sessions on how to write good policy, but I digress.

00:10:26.960 But, you know, you're going to get a lot of confusion.

00:10:27.920 You need to go to your school.

00:10:29.840 Exactly. You can sign up for applied politics and public affairs and learn how to actually write

00:10:34.800 either convention floor policies or public policy. But thank you for that underhand pitch and promotion

00:10:40.960 of the program. But yeah, so I think there's going to be some confusion there, but it's not A to B. It's A to B,

00:10:47.840 C, D, E, maybe F. And so that's where I'm hoping that these conversations get the sentiment of the true

00:10:54.080 direction Albertans want to go. Again, people that are looking for separation may be more inclined to attend

00:11:03.680 these versus what the, you know, attending one of these NDP pro Canada, whatever they're running,

00:11:11.760 in contrast to what the government is proposing.

00:11:15.040 Yes. So I think the Clarity Act would be triggered, would it not? That would be the first step?

00:11:22.880 Yes. Yeah. You'd have to do that. You'd have to go through, I mean, I don't even know from how

00:11:28.720 you'd establish, once you do the Clarity Act, I mean, should it go past that?

00:11:33.120 What does it look like for decisions of constitutional change? What does it look like for

00:11:39.680 infrastructure, right? You need to establish a police force, a banking system, a pension.

00:11:45.840 And that's where I think a lot of people look and they're like, well, that's why 50 first state is

00:11:49.600 easier because that's already established. But conforming to that, I mean, I would hope if we ever

00:11:56.960 got there, we looked at what Texas has and some of their exemptions from the constitution. But I

00:12:02.240 really don't get the sentiment that people want to join the US. I think that the message is more,

00:12:07.280 we're really frustrated. We feel like we're not respected in confederation. I think Saskatchewan's

00:12:12.480 right there. It's just, they're not as loud as maybe Alberta has been or is currently. And that

00:12:19.440 regardless of Carney being in office, a parting of the clouds of Trudeau, that there is maybe

00:12:26.320 opportunity, we can't just all of a sudden lean in with false hope that, or optimism guiding us,

00:12:34.560 while there's still people that are frustrated and want to see our premier and our province push for

00:12:40.400 more equality in confederation.

00:12:43.360 You have used the word frustration a number of times in the past 10 minutes. And there are two

00:12:50.240 things that legitimately could frustrate people. One is the sheer amount of money that goes out of

00:12:58.160 Alberta and quite frankly keeps the rest of the country going. The other is the lack of interest or

00:13:06.560 respect even for the dominant values of Alberta that we don't get from the rest of Canada. I'll just

00:13:17.120 go out on a limb here and I say the money is an irritation, but it's not the main thing for me.

00:13:22.240 But I do find it deeply offensive that what seem to be social attitudes that are prevalent in Eastern

00:13:31.680 Canada are and come through parliament and then get directed to the rest of the country,

00:13:38.400 amongst whom is Alberta. Probably the PEI isn't too happy with some of the things they do either.

00:13:46.960 But anyway, we're talking about Alberta and you have this lust for control and authoritarian 1.00

00:13:56.800 dictates that comes out of Ottawa that is, you know, we don't want that. We're a freedom loving people,

00:14:03.280 I think. So where do you see the center of gravity for all that frustration that you're talking about?

00:14:10.080 I mean, if we had a case study, I'd look at the fact that Quebec seems, sees themselves as a distinct

00:14:17.040 society. When you look at Alberta, and I would extend it to Western Canada, we don't have the cleavage of 0.95

00:14:22.640 Western alienation for no reason. We are treated differently. We have, you know, less seats in the

00:14:29.280 Senate. The four provinces equal one Quebec or one Ontario. There's distribution of seat count,

00:14:36.320 seeing elections be decided before our polls close. Like there's a lot in the democratic,

00:14:41.680 like the parliamentary democratic system that isn't working right now. The way Confederation was set up

00:14:47.680 is that the dictatorship isn't like the federal government is the same value as the other

00:14:53.360 provinces that they work in collaboration. I think that when you talk, I talk about the frustration.

00:14:59.440 Listen, I'm actually, I'm quite a realist, even though I have some optimism for Carney because more

00:15:03.840 of a fingers crossed approach. But I don't think equalization formula will be reformed. I don't

00:15:11.360 think Senate's going to be reformed. Because that causes us to open up the Constitution,

00:15:16.720 which we technically really haven't done since 1867. Because we just added the charter of rights

00:15:22.560 and freedoms like it was very minor, we tried to do a bunch of stuff leading up to that. And even in

00:15:28.320 the 80s. So I don't think that if Albertans are sitting here being like, well, we just need

00:15:33.680 constitutional reform. I don't think that that's realistic. But what I think the biggest thing that

00:15:39.280 frustrates Alberta is get the hell out of our lane. And stick to what your constitutional jurisdiction is, 1.00

00:15:46.800 don't try and jump over the province to deal with the municipalities like just stay in your darn lane 0.97

00:15:53.600 and do what you're supposed to do as a federal government. Well, and let provinces do what 0.97

00:15:58.560 provinces were designed to do. And I think that that would be a big sentiment shift from what we

00:16:07.120 currently are frustrated with. So to your point, money's annoying and a grievance because we see

00:16:14.560 it in dollars and figures. But the true sentiment to feel valued and appreciated would be, get the

00:16:20.720 heck out of my house. Yes. Well, you know, we tend, and the Premier herself tends to use the traffic 1.00

00:16:27.520 analogy a lot, staying out of a lane. The other thing that we might be reminding Otto is when you see a red

00:16:32.480 light, you're supposed to stop. And that's, uh, the red light is when you are in fact poaching on the

00:16:40.640 To be clear, I mean, I think our biggest default is we always talk about pipelines, but that has to

00:16:45.760 do with property rights. That has to do with transportation, corridors, um, a lot of like

00:16:51.440 investments that we have for research, innovation, anything at the post-secondary level. Like to a lot of

00:16:58.080 people, they just think, Oh, Alberta wants you just to allow us to build pipelines from coast to coast

00:17:03.120 and, and say F you to everyone else in between Alberta, like Fort McMurray, perhaps, and the ports. Um, I,

00:17:10.720 that's not the case. We've seen Saskatchewan actually go ahead, um, with a constitutional complaint and

00:17:17.680 looking at using notwithstanding clause against the federal government on things like even property

00:17:22.080 rates or carbon tax, or these types of things that are impacting industries that thrive. So I think it goes

00:17:27.920 beyond building pipelines and it's like, let us give you money. Like we're happy to play into that

00:17:35.200 as long as if we need help or we need, um, policy that allows us to thrive, that you're not getting in

00:17:41.200 our way. Yeah. Um, pure speculation, but from an informed source, how, how many, uh, how much of the

00:17:50.080 caucus is sympathetic to separation independence and how much, uh, how many members of caucus

00:17:58.880 are what you might call fiercely federalist?

00:18:05.280 That that's probably, I'm not going to pull a number out of the air because I think that's hard.

00:18:09.040 And I think that there's sympathy to separatism because you'd have large pockets of your collective,

00:18:15.440 especially in rural Alberta that would want to explore that, especially on land rights and,

00:18:20.560 and our agriculture, um, and forestry, uh, industries that also are harmed by federal

00:18:26.720 interference. Um, so I think that there's a lot that are sympathetic to it. And again, would like to

00:18:32.480 explore and see what comes out of this Alberta next panel. I have been critical that I don't think

00:18:38.960 elected officials should be leading this because it politicizes it as opposed to working with the

00:18:43.440 industries that are impacted and make policy suggestions or a roadmap for government to

00:18:48.880 explore. And so I think it muddies the waters on the intention of this panel, unfortunately. However,

00:18:56.160 I do think that there are, um, a lot that again, you can still be interested in separation, but love

00:19:03.920 the monarch and support the monarch. So, or the federalist federalism system. So I think it's not as

00:19:11.520 black or white of, are you a separatist equaling, you want complete autonomy and leaving Canada all

00:19:17.280 together or versus I am happy with how the order goes. I think where most probably people sit is in

00:19:25.120 that gray in between. Yeah. So, well, and caucus probably reflects that. Uh, yes. And people probably

00:19:32.080 should at this stage be in the, in that gray scene because there's so many things that we,

00:19:36.880 that we don't know. Uh, I see, I see we're coming close to time, Erica. Um, but there is this one

00:19:44.400 last question that I'd love to hear your thoughts on. Whether the referendum, which I think is going

00:19:51.360 to be sometime in the first half of next year, let's see, I think that's the latest information we have.

00:19:57.760 The referendums, referendum on independence comes in the first half of next year.

00:20:02.160 If it passes, that's one set of consideration. If it fails, that is that people say, no, we're not

00:20:12.640 interested. We, or a majority of Albertans who vote say they're not interested. Does that not still

00:20:20.160 attach to the premier anyway? Like, as we've said earlier, the, her predecessors never did this.

00:20:29.280 Mr. Kenny, Mrs. Notley. And, uh, I think they wouldn't have done it. Uh, so she did. Does that

00:20:41.360 not say to people or could it not be interpreted? Well, she's actually in favor of, uh, of independence,

00:20:47.360 but doesn't want to say so. And so we have this referendum. So even after losing a referendum,

00:20:53.600 she could get up and say, Oh, that's it. The people have spoken, but it's still her issue. Do you think

00:20:58.400 she's going to carry that into the next election? Well, two interesting things. Kenny did bring

00:21:02.480 forward a referendum on equalization. So I agree that it is not the question of separation, but he

00:21:08.400 did bring forward a policy to push back on Ottawa. It failed and we're still having that conversation.

00:21:14.560 So I don't think that the issues that maybe are brought under a certain administration stick to that,

00:21:21.360 um, leader. However, hers is more open to not just let's reform the constitution, which I think many

00:21:30.240 folks realize is very, very difficult as opposed to separation. I think to me, it's what is the

00:21:36.000 question? Cause I think the equalization question was poorly written and confusing for people as well

00:21:40.400 as the time zone, um, or the daylight savings changes. So I think again, it's how the question is written.

00:21:47.840 Is there also a question that's, you know, by Thomas Lukasik brought forward on the opposite?

00:21:54.240 Is that confusing? Um, I would be very discouraged if it's brought as a standalone referendum,

00:22:00.320 because I think it's, uh, like a inappropriate use of taxpayers when you could just wait till

00:22:05.840 there's, they're already going to a ballot. Um, and so there's a lot of pieces there that I think

00:22:12.800 will be very indicative. Now let's play the hypothetical that it does pass. Um, I think the

00:22:18.960 question is by how much that you, do you truly have the support? Uh, there'll be a lot of pushback

00:22:24.000 because not every voter, you have an option to vote in the referendum. And so that might be hypercritical

00:22:30.240 that she'll have to navigate. I would say if it was held today in the form in which, um, some groups

00:22:35.920 have presented it, I don't think it's going to pass because again, like you said, we don't have

00:22:39.920 enough education that even something like me who would like to explore what that looks like,

00:22:44.960 how much would it cost to do this? Like a business case for being our own entity. Um,

00:22:52.000 I just don't know where that information is going to come to between now and potentially 2026. So

00:22:58.880 there's a lot of, um, roadblocks regardless of what happens if it goes forward. I think that it would

00:23:06.640 be political suicide for Danielle Smith to double down on something where she said, 1.00

00:23:11.040 this is up to Albertans to decide and they decided, no, but I'm still going to go forward with it.

00:23:16.160 Um, I think that that would be very career limiting move. So I don't think that she,

00:23:22.640 and she's also said that she's not a separatist. So whether people want to paint her with that brush,

00:23:26.960 because from an opposition standpoint, that sounds great. And it's an easy target or that she's like,

00:23:31.520 wants to be a Trumpite, whatever narrative they're driving. She's said it, she's giving it to Albertans.

00:23:39.120 Um, and so, but there's a lot of runway between now and then, and a lot of things that could influence

00:23:44.320 people like me. Uh, if you do it as standalone, I might just vote no, because I hate the context

00:23:51.440 in which it was presented. Last question, Erica, what would you say to people who, uh, say, yeah,

00:23:57.360 let's vote for independence and then see what sort of a better deal we can get out of Ottawa?

00:24:05.680 Um, be careful what you wish for, because it could be very detrimental. I mean, we look at Quebec,

00:24:13.200 um, and we have someone that's gone through it, been very, very close and there was no real roadmap

00:24:20.240 of how you would do that. So you're, you're charting on, or you're going through uncharted territory

00:24:26.960 and that comes with a lot of, um, unanticipated consequence. And we might just be told by all

00:24:34.080 of our colleagues, F off, get out of here. And then we're on a landlocked island, um, you know,

00:24:41.280 with, with very little to do. So this is where I think it's very important to be proactive to explain

00:24:46.320 the how to Albertans. Um, and maybe don't always just vote with your sentiment. Look at, look at the path.

00:24:54.000 Good words, Erica. Thank you very much for joining us today. Yeah. Thank you for having me. And good

00:25:00.720 luck with, uh, teaching the next generation to do politics better. For the Western Standard,

00:25:06.640 I'm Nigel Hannaford.

00:25:19.520 3 build in Littleuder.

00:25:23.120 2 action happens again.

00:25:24.560 2 action happens again.

00:25:26.560 3 action happens again.

00:25:28.240 2 action happens again.

00:25:29.840 3 action happens again.

00:25:31.920 2 action happens again.

00:25:34.080 MT Sанс It happens again.

00:25:35.920 2 action happens again.

00:25:37.920 3 action happens again.

00:25:39.200 Boy, when you take a mile, it's hit back.

00:25:43.920 3 time Max happens,

HANNAFORD： Can independence solve Alberta's 'Ottawa problem？'

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