Western Standard - HANNAFORD： Carney has until Christmas to deliver the goods

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford.

00:00:19.920 Parliament returned on Monday, and after a month of announcements before that,

00:00:24.880 Prime Minister Carney used the occasion in the House of Commons to add more promises

00:00:29.680 to those he's made over the last 18 months. Since he was elected Prime Minister, it's also worth

00:00:36.480 our attention that on Mr Carney's watch, Canada's outstanding federal debt has grown by a not

00:00:43.520 insignificant $106 billion. So a lot of money borrowed, and from what we can see, not much

00:00:52.480 happening to put people to work and generate wealth no pipelines yet that's for sure we're

00:00:58.480 very aware of that in alberta and as taxpayers struggling with inflation and with our kids

00:01:03.280 trying to find meaningful work what are we supposed to make of it with us today is political

00:01:09.440 advisor yaroslav peran he's principal at pendulum strategies he's advised prime ministers welcome

00:01:16.720 back to the show, Yaroslav. It's always good to be here, Nigel. That's the stuff. Well, Yaroslav,

00:01:22.160 what do you make of it in the Prime Minister's Monday announcement? Are they going to make a

00:01:26.800 difference? Tell us what they were. I mean, the big recent developments have been tiddling of

00:01:32.700 legislation of very big, fat, omnibus bill. We could call it a big, beautiful bill, Mr. Carney's

00:01:38.560 point of view, that does a couple of things. It rewrites some of the machinery, some of the

00:01:44.480 some of the enabling legal infrastructure to grease the skids of the operations of his major

00:01:53.740 project office. He's been trying to expedite major projects, especially trade enabling

00:02:00.140 and economic development projects to make them move faster, get them through approvals much

00:02:07.600 more quickly. So this bill really helps to make that happen. At least that's the intention.

00:02:12.640 I was going to say, let me just ask you about that before we leave that behind.

00:02:20.880 This major projects office has actually not created anything that didn't exist before it.

00:02:27.640 But this bill that you're talking about actually establishes it as a permanent fixture.

00:02:33.140 It removes the sunset clause.

00:02:35.720 So something that has yet to prove its worth is now being established as a permanent operating procedure.

00:02:41.320 Is there anything a little cynical about that?

00:02:44.580 Well, one of the most amusing things that I think about this is the very concept of the Major Project Office, which has been one of the key pillars of Mr. Carney's governing agenda, was really modeled directly after the late and lamented Major Project Management Office that was created under the Harper government,

00:03:08.060 uh specifically for resource projects to expedite them get you know get them moving much more

00:03:13.020 quickly and that's something that the liberals at the time roundly and thoroughly criticized

00:03:18.320 uh as being anti-environmental and anti-indigenous and far too capitalist friendly but they've now

00:03:27.660 taken that same model and and and built their uh their new major projects office uh you know

00:03:33.760 according to the same basic principles so that's a little bit of cute irony i think but you know

00:03:38.960 hey this is politics uh governments change and political parties need to change circumstances

00:03:45.440 and right now we need to build they're trying to do that that's what this bill is trying to enable

00:03:49.760 there's also uh a controversial labor component to this bill as well that gives the labor minister

00:03:57.920 a stronger ability to impose an order ending a labor disruption, forcing a striking union back

00:04:11.180 to work, or ending a lockout. So this is something that's going to be facing a lot of criticism

00:04:16.280 from some of the major unions. I have to wonder even how effective that is. I mean,

00:04:22.400 when you've got two sides locked in conflict and they both want it to end,

00:04:25.420 the labor minister can go in and say all right everybody back to work and it's okay you know

00:04:30.740 and then they grumble about the government being heavy-handed but they're deeply grateful that

00:04:35.380 they they're able to go back to work and the burden of blame has been lifted from them

00:04:39.840 what happens when you get labor unions that really don't want to go back to work and they

00:04:45.040 control the federal government or they control some vital industry and you know the labor unions

00:04:51.740 can still do a lot through even just taking a work-to-rule posture rather than striking

00:04:57.260 outright. But this is intended to, on the face of it, and I believe that the government is genuine

00:05:05.280 in its desires here, they want to stop the ability of labor disruptions completely demobilizing a

00:05:15.300 port. Think of the Port of Vancouver, for example, Canada's largest port. It's got bigger capacity

00:05:20.660 than all other Canadian ports put together.

00:05:23.700 So labor disruption, say, by the longshoremen at the Port of Vancouver

00:05:28.100 should not be able to shut down most of Canada's exports

00:05:31.680 through Canada's primary port.

00:05:33.220 Or, for example, Canada posts a stoppage due to a labor disruption

00:05:39.660 that can severely impact the operations and viability

00:05:44.820 of many small businesses that use it as their shipping vehicle

00:05:49.220 or an Air Canada strike or whatever.

00:05:51.180 So anything with major economic consequences.

00:05:53.620 Now, the government has said that it's putting parameters

00:05:58.180 or guardrails, as their favorite term,

00:06:00.840 that this would only apply to labor disruptions

00:06:04.760 with an economic impact.

00:06:06.020 Well, I've never met a labor disruption

00:06:08.680 that didn't have an economic impact.

00:06:11.420 That's the whole point of a strike to create economic pressure.

00:06:15.680 um but the government has also there's a quite a bit of political spin around this as well the

00:06:21.320 government has claimed that this legislation will actually curtail their ability to impose

00:06:27.280 back-to-work legislation by putting strict parameters around it i frankly don't buy that

00:06:32.880 for a second because for a government that has had to impose um you know back-to-work orders

00:06:41.760 during economic disruptions,

00:06:45.580 why on earth would they want to limit their ability to do that?

00:06:50.240 It just simply doesn't make sense.

00:06:52.120 They want to create a new set of rules that make it easier to justify.

00:06:56.220 They certainly do not want to limit their ability to impose back-to-work orders.

00:07:00.300 I also think that this is a gift for Abby Lewis,

00:07:04.320 the new leader of the New Democratic Party,

00:07:06.900 because it gives him a tangible, specific, concrete issue

00:07:11.060 that he can that he can climb on to really focus on to help to rebuild his brand and build more

00:07:17.540 support get attention for the ndp which has really been floundering for a number of years all right

00:07:23.620 well we'll return to the person of mr lewis a little later but right now so we've what we've

00:07:29.220 got at the moment with mr connie is that we've got the his own version of a big beautiful bill

00:07:35.540 500 million dollars which mostly seems to come from institutional sources not private industry

00:07:42.020 it's banks it's it's pension funds and a couple of other things but it's not really like the major

00:07:50.240 oil company has stepped up and said we were going to invest in Canada and here's our 40 billion

00:07:55.820 dollars this is institutional money so he's got but he's got that and he's got his plans for the

00:08:03.460 of the major projects office which hasn't produced anything but he's obviously still committed to

00:08:09.540 that idea it's also the major investment summit he just held yes well and that's where i think

00:08:17.060 the 500 billion dollar fund was rolled out so so he has these things and over the past 18 months

00:08:24.180 we've seen quite a number of memorandums of understanding here in alberta we're hanging

00:08:30.180 our hat on an MOU that says there'll be a pipeline, brackets, as long as we don't encounter

00:08:36.000 any resistance from indigenous interests.

00:08:39.420 So those things that we've already seen, now in the very recent weeks, we've seen him approach

00:08:45.580 Europe.

00:08:47.860 And I failed to understand what Europe can do for Canada.

00:08:55.260 Back in Mr. Harper's time, we established the Comprehensive Trade Agreement with Europe.

00:09:00.620 It depended upon individual countries ratifying the agreement.

00:09:09.020 Not all did, but there certainly has been a significant uptick in trade with Europe.

00:09:14.220 But a significant uptake takes you sort of like from 4% to 10%, and it's not anywhere

00:09:20.200 close to the trade we have in the United States.

00:09:23.120 So if that isn't likely to change, what is the point of cozying up to Europe?

00:09:29.220 They're in worse shape than we are.

00:09:31.120 Well, some of this is symbolic.

00:09:33.440 A big part of this is symbolic broadcasting and attitude reset.

00:09:40.240 The message is really, hey, folks, we can no longer depend on the United States to be a reliable partner

00:09:48.260 because they're talking about potentially annexing us

00:09:54.720 or absorbing us into the union, they're imposing tariffs.

00:09:58.160 These are not the actions of a trusted partner,

00:10:01.880 so we need to find others.

00:10:03.180 And hey, we've got a lot in common with Europe.

00:10:07.480 Canadians like Europe.

00:10:09.580 Why don't we do more business with Europe?

00:10:11.320 So it's really a symbolic pivot,

00:10:14.300 one that can make some difference in terms of our trade statistics. But as you note,

00:10:22.460 we so overwhelmingly depend on the United States as our current export market that is going to take

00:10:28.680 a really long time to move those markers meaningfully. Now, they have moved already.

00:10:34.660 When this trade war started with the United States about a year and a half ago, 76% of

00:10:39.440 Canada's exports went to the U.S., that figure is down now to about 66% or 67%.

00:10:45.100 So it's already dropped about 10%.

00:10:48.800 I'm actually quite surprised that the Canadian economy, that our export industries have been

00:10:55.740 able to move the markers that significantly in such a short period of time.

00:11:01.180 But bear in mind, the first move is always going to be the lower hanging fruit.

00:11:04.980 the next 10% is going to be much harder and going to take much longer than the first 10%

00:11:10.700 of trade diversification. So that's something to bear in mind. Diversifying from the US is going to

00:11:15.920 be a long, hard slog. Moreover, it's a lot cheaper and a lot easier to export to the US. So yeah,

00:11:24.820 great. Let's look at other markets. Let's not put all of our eggs or too many of our eggs into the

00:11:30.040 same basket but shipping a basket of widgets from uh from canada to france is always going to be

00:11:40.140 more expensive than dropping it on the train sending it down uh two or three hundred kilometers

00:11:46.380 across the canada u.s border so we've got to keep that in mind diversified trade is going to be less

00:11:51.680 less efficient less expensive so it's it's really a necessary evil uh rather than an optimally uh

00:11:58.920 kind of an ideal scenario. Now, Europe, you asked what a new association agreement can do for

00:12:06.620 Canada. It's a good question. The best thing that we can do for Canada was already done. It's the

00:12:13.020 Canada-EU trade agreement that was concluded under the Stephen Harper government. That's the big

00:12:21.000 opening of the floodgates for greater trade between the two countries. Now, I would note

00:12:25.860 that there are 10 European countries

00:12:28.180 that still have not ratified it.

00:12:30.560 I would say let's focus on getting those countries

00:12:33.040 to ratify it.

00:12:34.160 Let's get this thing into full implementation.

00:12:36.960 That's going to have the biggest impact

00:12:39.100 on Canada's economy and Canada's exports.

00:12:42.100 What they're talking about now is unrelated

00:12:44.540 to allowing that currently signed free trade agreement

00:12:49.100 to come into effect more fully.

00:12:52.200 They seem to be talking about things

00:12:55.720 like student exchanges allowing canadian students to study in europe and vice versa

00:13:02.840 integrating supply chains better for things like defense procurement a good thing but again the

00:13:09.960 kind of things that really really get juiced by a fully implemented free trade agreement so i would

00:13:16.040 say that should probably be the focus so i think this is more of a symbolic move than anything else

00:13:22.600 because the real heavy lifting was already done by the harper government in concluding

00:13:26.840 that free trade agreement to begin with now we're uh we're watching our international trade minister

00:13:33.080 trying to sign assign free trade agreements left right and center good probably makes sense when

00:13:37.880 you're trying to diversify trade but free trade agreements alone do not diversify trade they

00:13:45.960 enable trade to be diversified but then you need trade missions you actually need signed contracts

00:13:52.200 between canadian companies and uh importers abroad to really really move the needle

00:14:00.440 when you said that canadian companies had been successful in diversifying

00:14:05.400 and you said that their sales to the us were down by i think it was ten percent yeah around

00:14:11.640 there are they actually selling their product elsewhere or are they just kind of businesses

00:14:16.920 down 10% because we've sold less to the US? Oh, actually, that's a more detailed question. I'd

00:14:23.960 probably have to defer that to the people who really analyze our trade stats more thoroughly,

00:14:29.640 but on the face of it, about 66% of our exports are now going to the US rather than 76%.

00:14:38.280 percent so it is it is more to china sorry are we selling more to china um marginally yes because

00:14:46.280 we were in a pretty in the depths of a deep freeze when the carny government took over

00:14:51.480 but that's something we want to be really really careful about and i hope that the government is 1.00

00:14:55.480 is taking uh chinese threats seriously they are certainly not a reliable trading partner

00:15:02.120 i would argue they are less reliable and and at least as arbitrary as a trump administration has

00:15:11.000 been they the chinese wake up in a bad mood this morning they declare by fiat that canadian pork

00:15:17.640 is dangerous no more canadian pork or there are rebels and canadian canola products so no more 0.83

00:15:22.840 canadian canola they do this all the time on a whim that's no more predictable no more reliable

00:15:29.400 than the kind of stuff we've been seeing uh from the trump administration where he wakes

00:15:33.640 up one morning and decides he doesn't like canada so more tariffs on our automobiles

00:15:38.760 well you see if you knock off if you knock off canadian trade in canola and then you can give

00:15:44.040 it back but the prices you've got to buy our motor cars or electric cars that's actually

00:15:50.600 beyond arbitrary that's smart business um but they're in a position to do it and we're not

00:15:56.280 how much how dependent do you think mr carney is on his relationship with china oh boy um you know

00:16:05.160 the the the signals that his um primary cabinet ministers involved in this in this relationship

00:16:17.080 are sending is that our chinese trade is going to be cautious and where necessary and it's going

00:16:22.440 to be as low value or at least not low value in dollar value but as uh and unstrategic as possible

00:16:31.560 so things like food commodities you know things like canela or you know things like that rather

00:16:37.880 than more strategic um trade relationships impacting things like semiconductors critical

00:16:44.520 minerals etc the kinds of things that if they decide to turn it off are not going to have uh

00:16:50.120 an impact on Canadian national security. Canadian economy, maybe, but not necessarily

00:16:55.000 national security. So they're sending the signals that they're taking this strategic approach.

00:17:00.920 But the fact is, the more you become reliant on any new trading partner, the more exposed

00:17:09.560 you potentially are. That, by the way, is what theoretically makes the European Union

00:17:15.240 such an attractive new trade partners because there's a greater expectation by the government

00:17:20.680 of canada that they will be reliable and predictable and less arbitrary um so if we can

00:17:27.320 deepen those trade links between canada and and european union states uh the expectation is that

00:17:34.680 they will be honest fair uh brokers rather than you know the same kinds of uh you know belligerent

00:17:42.440 maneuverings that we've seen from from both uh beijing and from washington but it really begs

00:17:49.080 the question what is in this new arrangement or so far there's been very little information about

00:17:55.320 what an associate membership in the eu uh meets uh mr paulia has certainly uh laid down some

00:18:03.000 important markers so has is canada u.s um shadow minister shuv majundar they said look um open to

00:18:13.080 having discussions table something in parliament let's have debates in parliament because canada

00:18:18.680 is not going to accept eu regulations on canadian products canada is not going to accept eu

00:18:27.720 immigration and refugee standards and we're certainly not going to accept a taxpayer burden

00:18:33.160 to help fund the massive EU bureaucracy. Those are red lines that the Conservatives have drawn.

00:18:39.640 I think they've got their finger on the pulse. I do not think that such measures would fly with

00:18:44.920 the Canadian public. Whereas if it's more kind of nice to have stuff like allowing students to

00:18:52.200 travel and uh and study for longer periods of time sure you know what's there to oppose there but

00:18:58.760 let's have some clarity let's have some transparency and let's have those debates

00:19:03.400 okay so just uh just to bring this together a little bit because i want to go back to the

00:19:08.280 status of the ndp before we conclude this conversation but uh so so we have a string

00:19:14.600 of province promises we have a some apparently new money there's a hundred billion dollars more

00:19:21.160 in debt than there was 18 months ago. In fact, it's more than that, but let's not split hairs

00:19:26.440 over $10 billion. We have the possibility of a pleasant trading relationship with Europe,

00:19:37.480 not so much with China, but at least if we can keep it in a box, so to speak, then that might

00:19:43.960 have some benefit. So these things that Mr. Carney has going for him, he says, this is the big

00:19:51.080 picture we have the special projects office but so far after 18 months we don't have anything

00:19:58.280 how long do you think yaroslav that he has got to actually pull a bunny out of the hat and say

00:20:06.280 here it is this is the first of many things that our approach to government is going to yield and

00:20:11.960 it's going to be great for everybody hello oh boy look it probably depends on what uh on which

00:20:18.600 element we're talking about uh he's talked about attracting a trillion dollars yes one trillion

00:20:25.240 dollars in foreign direct investment that was the intent behind his big investment summit in toronto

00:20:32.040 uh the other week um it's it's a positive thing to broadcast to the world to major investors that

00:20:40.440 were open for business sure that's good but there's still some significant roadblocks

00:20:46.920 for international investors to see canada as a safe place to invest specifically

00:20:52.840 we do not have an integrated single market we solve inter-provincial trade barriers here so

00:20:58.520 there's no such thing right now as investing in the canadian economy because there isn't one

00:21:03.320 we've got sort of an uh a somewhat inter you know intertwined about the teleco of separate

00:21:09.800 economy not attractive if if nothing is happening in the new year i mean even canadians of goodwill

00:21:16.200 i think would be saying well okay you promised a lot yeah show me something well and that's that's

00:21:22.440 where i'm going with this there are there are barriers for that for that investment to happen

00:21:26.600 we don't have a single economy we have two separatist movements also toxic for yeah for

00:21:33.240 attractiveness for investment. And we haven't settled our relationship issues, our economic

00:21:40.920 relationship issues with our single biggest economic partner. That does not make us look

00:21:45.240 attractive. So, so far, we're seeing a whole lot of big aspirations, but not much happening behind

00:21:51.880 it. The biggest test is going to be how quickly and how well the Prime Minister can sign a trade

00:21:59.800 a deal with the United States. He's going to have to sign one. We're going to have, this has to come

00:22:04.380 to a conclusion. We will not survive a long-term economic or great war of attrition with the U.S.

00:22:10.860 We simply can't. And I would say the window, the ideal window is probably between the U.S. midterms

00:22:18.640 and January 1st. Once January 1st hits, Canada is going to face even fresh new tariffs on already

00:22:28.100 beleaguered sectors, specifically automobiles, auto parts, and steel. If new tariffs hit those

00:22:35.120 sectors, those sectors will not survive. So right now, Mr. Carney is Captain Canada, elbows up,

00:22:42.100 yeah, I'm going to fight for Canadians, and Canadians like that. They're buying it. The

00:22:45.640 polling shows they're into that. But once this tangibly starts to turn into job losses, mill

00:22:53.300 closures, auto plant closures, then that public mood is certainly going to sour. So I would say

00:23:03.320 on the Canada-US front, it's really a double-edged sword. Mr. Carney is benefiting in the immediate

00:23:11.060 term politically, but that can flip on a dime, particularly in the new year if new tariffs come

00:23:17.700 into effect. So what would you say? You were in the business of giving strategic advice.

00:23:25.280 Would you suggest to Mr. Carney that he have a snap election and grab a solid majority while

00:23:29.700 it's there to be taken? Look, there aren't really any signs that he's planning a snap election.

00:23:38.240 These things always create ripples out there. If somebody starts to make a phone call to inquire

00:23:44.800 about um bus wraps you know they always have a logo and a big space of your leader you know

00:23:51.760 that can those kinds of phone calls create buzz or you start to make inquiries about

00:23:56.320 releasing phone bank spaces or about uh you know local campaign office you know rentals

00:24:03.120 it creates waves out there there are no waves out there suggesting that this planning is underway

00:24:09.100 But I would posit that strategically, it would be negligent of Mr. Carney's advisors not to be having these conversations because their polling is through the roof right now.

00:24:25.960 Structurally, that probably will not last much, much longer.

00:24:31.200 Again, January 1st could be a pivot point or a hinge moment in Carney speak.

00:24:35.220 um so the window is the sort of guaranteed the safe window of buoyant polling is finite it's

00:24:44.520 short so it would be it would be foolish for them not to be seriously considering a snap election

00:24:50.880 the the seat projections show that they would definitely pick up seats they would almost

00:24:55.640 certainly pick up a lot of seats the conservatives would drop seats like we're talking you know 20 or

00:25:01.920 more so why would they not be thinking about doing this now that's why i asked the question last

00:25:08.480 question because we're out of time the ndp under mr lewis abby lewis former journalist excellent

00:25:14.480 ndp leadership credentials inherited from his grandfather are they going to make a difference

00:25:21.840 anybody going to vote for them the ndp has got deep roots in this country it has not been big

00:25:28.720 and powerful in the last last decade last two decades at least at the federal level

00:25:36.800 it's got significant presence in the organizational ability at the provincial level and it's a pretty

00:25:41.360 fairly provincially federally integrated party so they've got on the ground strength its biggest

00:25:47.440 handicap i would say with the greatest respect to jagmeet singh who i'm sure is a super swell

00:25:52.560 and nice guy he was not a strong leader and he was not a very strategic leader so the removal

00:25:58.240 of mr singh um probably removes their biggest uh their biggest impediment of recent years

00:26:05.440 ivy lewis so far has kept a pretty low profile and despite that ndp support has already started

00:26:13.440 to rise if an election were held today most of the seat projections most of the polling suggests

00:26:18.480 they would uh potentially triple the number of seats that they currently hold and that's basically

00:26:23.920 doing nothing that's basically just having anybody else at the expense of the liberals wouldn't they

00:26:32.880 by and large yes uh i i don't think that in any of those seats they'd be uh they'd be taken away

00:26:39.600 from uh from the conservatives so so just by replacing sorry what is is there anything that

00:26:45.600 mr polio should be doing in your view that he's not doing that to restore his fortunes because

00:26:50.160 Because right now, I just don't see it as a particularly good time to have much to say.

00:26:53.940 Nobody's listening.

00:26:56.000 Yeah, right now, people are focused on Carney.

00:26:58.720 They're focused on Carney.

00:26:59.980 They're focused on Trump.

00:27:00.880 As long as the Canada-U.S. relationship remains top of mind, that's going to give an advantage,

00:27:06.660 or it seems to be giving an advantage to Trump.

00:27:08.940 What Mr. Kualiev should be doing, and frankly is doing, is focusing on his dominant issue,

00:27:15.060 which is cost of living, which is affordability.

00:27:17.140 The polling all suggests that when Trump is more in the headlines, when he is more in our faces, that's an advantage to Carney. The Liberals go up relatively at the expense of the Conservatives.

00:27:31.140 When Trump recedes from the headlines, Liberals start to dip and the Conservatives start to go up because then the dominant issue becomes cost of living.

00:27:40.140 and the pollsters are saying that Paulyov still leads

00:27:43.540 and has the most cost on cost of living.

00:27:46.560 Conservatives who's had a caucus retreat in Penticton,

00:27:49.660 he made it clear the cost of living, that affordability,

00:27:53.940 that saving people money is going to be his singular priority.

00:27:58.900 That's a smart move.

00:28:00.040 It's the right move, given what the pollsters are saying

00:28:03.800 are the relative strengths of the Liberals versus their Conservatives.

00:28:07.880 Jaroslav, we're right bang up against the clock.

00:28:10.380 Thank you for this.

00:28:11.100 It's been most helpful.

00:28:13.620 We'll have you back again soon.

00:28:15.140 There's so much to talk about.

00:28:16.640 Great.

00:28:17.080 Always a pleasure, Nigel.

00:28:18.780 For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

00:28:37.160 You

Western Standard - September 27, 2026

HANNAFORD： Carney has until Christmas to deliver the goods

Episode Stats

Transcript