Western Standard

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show.

00:00:20.720 I'm Nigel Hannaford, and it is Thursday, June 19th. I'm joined today by Vivian Berkovich,

00:00:25.920 who was appointed Canadian ambassador to Israel in 2014 by Stephen Harper. She served for two and a

00:00:32.400 half years in that position. These days she lives on a kibbutz in Israel, and for the last six days

00:00:38.200 her life has been all about the war that began last week. Good evening, Vivian. First, are you in a safe

00:00:44.800 place? I am. I'm not in my safe room, but I am in a safe place. Thank you for asking. Six days ago,

00:00:53.160 Israel launched a massive air attack on Iran with the declared intention of ensuring that

00:00:57.880 the extremist leadership there never has access to nuclear weapons. It's probably fair to say that

00:01:04.200 as a result of Israel's attacks, the Iranian nuclear weapons program has already been set back many

00:01:10.440 years, but the big question remains is whether to finish the job, which entails bringing in the United

00:01:16.280 States. But now, Israelis are living in air raid shelters and seeing their homeschools and hospitals

00:01:23.160 destroyed by Iranian counter-attacks. In fact, Vivian, you were just at the hospital in Beersheba

00:01:30.120 this morning that was hit. So, in the next 20 minutes I'd like to talk to you about two things.

00:01:36.520 One, in your tweets you've been extremely critical of the Iranians, but you've had some choice words for

00:01:42.520 the Netanyahu government. So, where is this going and where should it go?

00:01:48.040 Well, that's a lot, Nigel. So, I do have choice words, appropriate criticism of the current coalition

00:01:59.480 government in Israel led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. I've not been critical since this war began,

00:02:06.680 but on many issues I disagree quite sharply with their policies and their approaches to things.

00:02:13.000 With respect to what's going on and where it's going, I think that everyone in Israel is united.

00:02:22.840 There is no daylight. You will just find no daylight between... This is not a right-left issue in this

00:02:31.000 country. This is a truly existential issue. This is an extremist, Islamist, fundamentalist, fanatic

00:02:41.400 government that for almost 50 years has been saying over and over that it's raison d'etre. It exists

00:02:49.640 not only to promote radical Shiite Islam, but to destroy Israel. Israel is little Satan.

00:02:58.200 America, of course, is big Satan. But Israel, in the eyes of the Iranian leadership, is beyond demonic.

00:03:10.280 And they've been working very hard now for decades on developing a nuclear military capability. And

00:03:20.040 they've made very clear repeatedly that they intend to deploy that to use it against Israel.

00:03:28.200 So there is no doubt in your mind that the Israeli government should push this as far as it needs

00:03:37.400 to push it. And that could include persuading the United States to use its particular technology to

00:03:45.240 get the... I guess it's a production plant for nuclear material that's buried under a mountain.

00:03:52.280 And the Americans have got a bomb that would get there. They're the only people in the world who do.

00:03:58.760 And that is what the Israeli people are hoping for. Is that correct?

00:04:03.480 I wouldn't disagree with that. I think that there have been years and years of attempts to negotiate

00:04:11.720 with the Iranian regime. And they have not been successful. Israel has obviously an extraordinary,

00:04:21.800 not just military and air force capability, but also on the ground intelligence. And

00:04:30.520 Israel has the knowledge and America has the knowledge. And the Western allies also have the knowledge and

00:04:36.920 understanding that Iran is really metaphorically moments from breakout. And breakout when you're talking

00:04:45.000 about nuclear weapons means able to deploy nuclear weapons against an enemy. There's no doubt about that.

00:04:53.960 And the site that you're talking about is Fordow. It's buried about a kilometer underneath a mountain. It is the

00:05:05.960 main kind of... it's kind of like the Los Alamos, I guess. It's where all of the enriched uranium is

00:05:14.680 brought from various sites around Iran where components of the nuclear

00:05:22.440 nuclear bomb are being made. Everything in the end is taken to Fordow. And that is

00:05:32.600 the finishing place where the icing is being put on the cake. As you mentioned, Israel lacks the capability.

00:05:40.040 We think. We're not sure. I've done a lot of work on that this week. But Israel lacks the capability

00:05:47.000 to do it as easily as America. I mean, one expert I was speaking with the other day made the point that

00:05:53.560 there's no way that Israel embarked on this operation without a plan for Fordow in the event that America

00:06:02.360 doesn't come in. And there are ways that they believe militarily they could destroy Fordow. It would just be

00:06:09.720 much riskier and take longer. As you mentioned, America has what's known in the vernacular here as

00:06:16.040 the mother of all bombs, Moab, you know, biblical reference, all that stuff. And they have that really,

00:06:23.480 really cool fighter jet, which is the only jet in the world that has the ability to carry this extremely

00:06:34.600 heavy bomb called a bunker buster also in the vernacular. And the belief is that one to two bunker

00:06:44.840 busters dropped on Fordow would do the job. Now they possibly would do four. And that's exactly what

00:06:52.840 President Trump is weighing now. And I just heard him speaking as I was driving home from the hospital in

00:07:01.000 Beresheva that was hit, saying he likes to take things to the last minute, he likes to really sit with

00:07:06.440 things and make a decision. But I'm not a betting woman and predicting things in the Middle East is a

00:07:13.560 really, really extreme sport. But if I had to speculate with respect to the outcome here, I do think the

00:07:22.360 Americans are going to come in and finish the job.

00:07:24.760 There are people who say that a lot of things, but one of the critiques of that outcome is that this

00:07:35.960 would just mean there'd be a wider war in the Middle East. Do you attach any credibility to that point of view?

00:07:46.760 Look, I mean, war is a high risk endeavor. And there's always doesn't matter in every thing you

00:07:55.160 do in life, including war and combat, there's a risk assessment. So absolutely, that's a possibility. But

00:08:05.880 there are also many other possibilities that are good. And let me just briefly sort of sketch out what's going

00:08:12.360 on right now. Don't take my word for it. I've, again, spoken with many experts, experts on Iran, military

00:08:21.240 experts, not just in Israel, all over the world. The view that I've only heard consensus on, maybe not

00:08:30.920 from the Ayatollah, but from everyone else who knows what's going on on the ground in Iran, is that the

00:08:36.520 population is wildly opposed to this regime. They hate it. They want it gone. So let's just assume that

00:08:45.000 that's correct, that part and take that on faith. And then there is the politics of diaspora politics of

00:08:56.680 Iran, the Persian people, and that can get messy. But it looks like there is a very large contingent that

00:09:03.960 wants to install the son of the Shah of Iran, who was basically thrown out of the country in 1979

00:09:12.360 as leader. There's, of course, potential for mess in terms of pulling things together domestically.

00:09:20.040 There's also a very real possibility that the Iranian people get behind the opposition, that it

00:09:27.240 structures itself responsibly, and this once incredible, magnificent, prosperous, highly cultured

00:09:36.440 country gets itself back again. You also have to look at the military situation. The Israeli government

00:09:46.920 since, or the Israeli Air Force since Saturday, really within a day and a half,

00:09:52.760 had effectively neutralized all of Iran's air defense systems. And we see and hear over and over,

00:09:59.720 Israel owns the skies over Iran. Fact. President Putin withdrew all of his people on the ground,

00:10:08.040 his military personnel. They went home to Moscow, tail between their legs, and they were told,

00:10:13.560 get out of here. He took them out. What else does Israel control? We have the run of the skies in the

00:10:22.760 Middle East. The Israeli Air Force was given permission by Syria to use its airspace to attack Iran. Saudi Arabia,

00:10:33.480 Saudi Arabia, every single country in the Middle East, has opened its skies so that Israel can get rid of this

00:10:43.480 horrible regime. And you know why? Because Iran threatens everyone. Iran threatens everyone except for

00:10:53.080 what I call the terror axis that spent decades and billions of dollars building in the Middle East.

00:10:58.920 And who's in the terror axis? Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in the West Bank,

00:11:06.440 and Qatar. And Qatar, you may have noticed in the last week, has been nowhere.

00:11:13.240 The Emir of Qatar? Quiet. No one's heard a peep. Not said anything against Israel or the United States,

00:11:22.760 nor has Qatar spoken out in support of its ally, Iran. Qatar reportedly requested that Hezbollah

00:11:33.720 step up and support Iran. And Hezbollah kind of said, yeah, sorry, we're not doing it. I mean,

00:11:44.280 Hezbollah was created in the late 80s. It has been financed by Qatar and Iran for decades.

00:11:52.760 This powerful proxy army was built and supported for decades by the Iranian military. Top Iranian

00:12:05.000 generals were stationed in Syria and Lebanon in order to train Hezbollah, get them weapons. They exist

00:12:16.040 because of Iran. And they're just, they're nowhere to be seen. So when you think of it in those terms and

00:12:23.560 what's going on in the map of the Middle East, it's pretty clear which side most countries are on.

00:12:32.680 And that's not an accident. Iran is a destabilizing threat to the region. The Saudis hate Iran.

00:12:41.880 And everyone in this region wants them gone, as does most of the civilized world.

00:12:50.600 So this actually could be one of those pivotal moments in Middle East history when things

00:12:56.440 actually do change. And the change you're anticipating is the end of the regime of the Mullahs

00:13:04.200 in Iran. So this is, I think everybody would call that a good outcome.

00:13:09.160 I'm sorry. I just want to add quickly before we move on. I actually think that this moment

00:13:19.640 may be one of the most significant times in geopolitics since World War II.

00:13:28.200 Really?

00:13:29.080 The reordering of the map and the power balance extends far beyond the Middle East.

00:13:36.440 And it's possibly at least as significant and impactful as when we saw the wall come down

00:13:46.840 and communism fall.

00:13:49.560 Very interesting that it should be happening at the same time as the G series of international

00:13:54.680 meetings seems to be running out of steam. We've just had the G7 here in Calgary or in

00:14:01.720 Kananaskis, to be precise, and it really didn't go very well. The fact that the United States is now

00:14:10.280 focused on its own economic interests before anybody else's really undercuts the intentions of

00:14:16.120 the G7. I think we're on an epochal restructuring of the international order in that department.

00:14:25.880 Now you are saying that we have an equally important, possibly more important,

00:14:30.520 restructuring of the power balance in the Middle East. Times are indeed changing for us all, are they not?

00:14:38.840 Absolutely. And just so dramatically. And, you know, believe me, Iran, Israel,

00:14:45.960 and the other countries in the region are watching very carefully who's saying what and who's supporting

00:14:53.000 whom. I think that, I know that, look, I'm Canadian. I follow Canada very carefully.

00:14:59.640 I have lots of family and friends there. And I think the G7 was big news in Kananaskis and maybe

00:15:07.320 elsewhere in Canada. It was not big news in Europe. And it certainly was not news in the Middle East.

00:15:15.080 I think that in many ways, frankly, it's irrelevant. And when President Trump left and President Macron of

00:15:20.680 France said, oh, he's leaving to work on a ceasefire. And then Trump just slammed him publicly on that.

00:15:28.280 And he said, no, I'm actually leaving to deal with some really significant matters that you have no clue

00:15:33.400 about this kind of, you know, reflexive. Macron thinks that he is the person to stand up and opine and

00:15:42.680 declare and comment on what is going on in the region. He's shut out. No leader of any importance

00:15:52.280 in this region pays attention to the President of France. And frankly, I would say the same for the

00:15:58.920 Prime Minister of Canada as well. And the Prime Minister of the UK, Keir Starmer, to his credit,

00:16:05.960 has played this kind of emerging New World Order much clever, much more cleverly than has Prime Minister

00:16:15.800 Carney, in my view. But I think that the issues that Prime Minister Carney is choosing to focus on

00:16:25.240 issue all of these statements that no one reads that will not be relevant, you know, five minutes from now.

00:16:32.440 Like, he's irrelevant in the Middle East. And that's a problem. Because if you think of what the map and

00:16:40.280 the power balance in this region could look like, with a modern, democratic, liberal, open for business

00:16:49.720 Iran, that is very strongly allied with Israel, with the UAE, with Saudi Arabia, we also have Syria,

00:16:59.960 astonishing everyone, and kind of, you know, slowly coming into the fold, and engaging on a much more

00:17:09.400 statesman-like, or in much more of a state's, professional, diplomatic way, with its neighbors

00:17:16.520 in the region, on and on and on. This is a new world. In the 1970s, when Iran was what it was,

00:17:24.280 it was a very, very different environment and balance of power. And then it was the Saudis,

00:17:29.240 of course, that were very kind of sort of backwards and aggressive and leading OPEC and challenging the

00:17:35.720 West. That's over. The OPEC era is over. And Canada is just not even in the room.

00:17:45.400 We're not in the room. There are reasons for that. Look, viewers should realize that you are

00:17:55.480 speaking in between air raids. There's a tension there. Give us a quick report on what you saw at

00:18:04.440 the hospital this morning. Sure. So I actually went in the afternoon. The hospital was hit

00:18:13.240 at, I think, around 730 this morning. It's in Beersheba, which is about a half hour from where

00:18:18.200 I live. I was very prescient. And about a year ago, I left central Tel Aviv for a whole bunch of

00:18:23.560 reasons and moved to beautiful kibbutz in southern Israel. And now the whole country wants to come and

00:18:28.200 live here because, you know, there's just not the population density. So we're not as much of a target

00:18:34.040 for for missiles, all kinds of things. And so I heard that the idea of us opening up the site for

00:18:43.560 the media to come in and have a look. And I got in my car and drove down there. You know, when you're

00:18:50.840 doing things like that in these times, the kind of the more hair raising part is also being on the road.

00:18:58.120 When a missile alert comes because when you're on the road in the middle of nowhere,

00:19:04.200 you're really vulnerable. So when one of my kids wrote to me and said, you know, hey,

00:19:09.800 mommy, tell me you're not in Beersheba. So of course, I said, No, I wouldn't be in Beersheba.

00:19:16.120 But I let her know after so you get there, you get to the hospital. And it was a very direct hit.

00:19:22.760 So it was clearly guided with intelligence. And of course, the question will be was the

00:19:27.320 intelligence inside the hospital. When I say direct hit, I mean, like, there's this big,

00:19:33.720 huge, like in many grand hospitals in the West, there's a big, huge lobby, entryway, atrium,

00:19:39.640 and the missile just slammed into it. They were just, I mean, I posted photos on my Twitter account,

00:19:47.080 you know, tiles hanging and all kinds of, you know, steel wreckage and water and shrapnel and

00:19:55.400 very, very tightly controlled. I couldn't really go in because I wasn't wearing protective equipment.

00:20:01.320 I didn't have a helmet. And frankly, I didn't need to go in. I saw enough. So I can't,

00:20:08.840 unfortunately, I'm going to ask you to verify that after because I have too many different numbers

00:20:13.160 swimming in my head. And I don't want to say anything inaccurate. I saw 48 injured.

00:20:17.800 Yeah, it was a miracle. Okay, but you have to understand a few things that I think are really

00:20:24.440 important. Firstly, I was astonished by how calm, like we're used to that kind of stuff here,

00:20:32.600 unfortunately. And business was carrying on, you know, the media was kind of put over there.

00:20:40.200 There were tons of police, first aid, civil defense, all those types.

00:20:44.360 There were doctors wheeling patients around and stretchers. I mean,

00:20:49.000 we don't miss a beat here because we can't. But in 2014, when I was ambassador to Israel,

00:20:56.280 and there was the war with Hamas, Gaza Strip, and Soroka Hospital was really the central destination

00:21:03.000 for all wounded soldiers, civilians, everyone. I went there and visited a few times during the war,

00:21:10.040 but more interestingly, I went after the war, because I wanted to see this incredible facility.

00:21:15.800 I'm pretty sure Soroka was the first hospital to do this. And now most large hospitals in Israel

00:21:21.960 have this capability. What they did was turned the underground parking lot, multi-level parking lot,

00:21:29.160 which is super fortified, like against every kind of weapon, you know, known to man today. Within 24 to 48

00:21:37.160 hours, these hospitals sterilize, clean the parking lot, and it is turned into a fully functioning

00:21:45.320 hospital with an NICU, with, you know, operating theaters, everything. The whole thing moves

00:21:54.520 underground. And it's extraordinary. I mean, that hospital, Soroka, serves 20% of the Israeli population.

00:22:01.880 There are 10 million people in Israel. It's a really important hospital. And many of its patients in

00:22:09.240 its catchment area, they live in, you know, kind of, they're Bedouin, living in Bedouin towns and

00:22:16.040 people on small communities, Kibbutzim, Moshevin, smaller towns. So they're quite a dispersed and very

00:22:22.520 diverse population. It's incredible. Look, we're running out of time, but I do want to ask you about

00:22:30.440 a statement put out this morning by Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, who says,

00:22:34.760 Ottawa is helping Canadians leave the Middle East if they can just get out of Israel and Iran.

00:22:41.640 But I would have thought that efficient consular services was no more than you should expect.

00:22:45.960 So why this is even worth announcing, I'm not sure. But tell me, if you're stuck in Israel,

00:22:52.360 as somebody we both know of currently is, do they look after you all right at our embassy?

00:22:59.240 No.

00:23:00.360 Tell me about that. You're the escape route. People come to you.

00:23:06.520 I was an escape route after October 7th, and I am an escape route now. Everybody has my phone number.

00:23:17.000 People had my number for many years. They tried the embassy first and the frustration and the outcome is

00:23:22.920 always the same. If you're lucky, you get a call tree and get put through to Ottawa to their emergency

00:23:29.320 hotline. And usually the people there are uninformed and just say, well, check, you know, stay shelter in

00:23:36.120 in a safe place and and check our website for future announcements and go on the list and we'll send you

00:23:41.400 emails. I mean, I've seen the emails they've been sending out for the last five, six days. They're useless.

00:23:47.240 They give no information. They are so beyond slow. I mean, I can tell you this time, many other Western

00:23:56.920 embassies, the day the attack started, they have consular services, they answer their phones,

00:24:04.440 they advise their citizens, they begin working on evacuation flights. Sometimes they get their citizens

00:24:12.120 out overland through the West Bank into Amman, which is a very viable route. I've helped a few people

00:24:21.240 leave Israel that way as well. And they stop off at my place for a good beer and burger before they

00:24:27.720 carry on. I think you actually put some up overnight, do you not? Yes, I do.

00:24:34.280 So you're like a one woman underground railway. It is a bit of an underground railway, yes. But there are lots of

00:24:41.400 people too who, you know, I tell them, look, here's what's involved. Um, here's the kind of the risk. Um,

00:24:48.200 most people I think should stay put, uh, told a few people that today for various reasons. Um,

00:24:55.960 but you know, the statement issued by, um, foreign affairs today, and I just want to make this very clear.

00:25:01.480 They told people today, today, it's what, what is today? Wednesday, Thursday, this began on early on

00:25:11.080 Friday morning. Um, well, if you want consular services, you know, come to the embassy, um,

00:25:17.080 on Monday to Thursday, business hours. Do you understand how crazy that is? This country's at war.

00:25:23.000 We're getting constant alerts. People have to run to shelters. Our embassy and consulate is located in

00:25:30.600 one of the worst and least accessible parts of Israel. It's in Tel Aviv. I remember from when I

00:25:36.760 was in office, I think about 85, 90% of our clientele. See, I come from the private sector,

00:25:41.720 so I actually have a service oriented mentality. About 85, 90% of Canadian clientele

00:25:47.640 are located in the Jerusalem area, not in the Tel Aviv area. Public transit isn't running. And if it is,

00:25:53.960 it's not reliable and it's not regular right now. So what you're telling people, if they want to speak to a

00:25:58.600 human being, come between business hours, we're operating, you know, half the week.

00:26:03.000 And what do you do with your, it gets crazy. Every other embassy operates properly. People answer the

00:26:10.280 phones. They give advice and they help their citizens in real time. And we seem to be incapable

00:26:18.280 of delivering the most basic service. And I know because I did it in 2014.

00:26:23.320 Now, okay, you're in Israel. Our embassy probably has local hires. So you've got other Israelis trying

00:26:32.120 to help other Israelis who either want to get into the country or get out of the country.

00:26:38.600 Everything else you have described shows a country that's overdosed on efficiency. I mean,

00:26:45.480 your account of how the hospital is restored to operating capacity so quickly. Clearly,

00:26:50.680 Israel knows how to get things done. How the heck can the Canadian embassy staffed by Israelis be so

00:27:00.040 unable to provide basic services? Okay. So it's not quite that simple. I mean,

00:27:05.720 the numbers are probably different now because, you know, we have many more

00:27:08.920 public service employees, but there is a mix. Okay. So there was 65-ish when I was ambassador. I think

00:27:16.360 there were about 15-16 what we call Canadian-based staff, which are people, diplomatic staff, and

00:27:22.760 also people from, you know, the Defense Department and other Ottawa departments, immigration. So

00:27:29.560 Canadian-based staff, they call them. And they are based in the embassy. And then there are what they

00:27:34.600 call locally engaged staff. And they will be Israeli. They will be a mix of Arab and Jewish and Christian and

00:27:42.200 all kinds of Israelis. They don't have the authority to initiate programming. I mean,

00:27:46.840 they can do whatever they want in their private life, but they can't, you know, go out and say,

00:27:50.840 hey, you know, I'm starting up this program and I'm going to organize. They take their direction

00:27:56.200 from the ambassador who takes her direction from Ottawa. And that's how it works. Having said that,

00:28:04.440 this is not rocket science, you know. So if our embassy in Tel Aviv is not providing service,

00:28:12.440 it goes back to the instructions that received from Ottawa. Is that what you're saying?

00:28:18.040 Well, unless the system's changed dramatically, but yeah, I mean, Ottawa is, you know, kind of like

00:28:23.560 the nucleus, right? Yes. And so, for example, if you want to speak apparently to a human being

00:28:32.040 about consular matters during this very extreme period, you're put through to Ottawa.

00:28:39.800 They have this emergency hotline. I've experienced that emergency hotline many times before. I have

00:28:44.440 recordings from that emergency hotline with the kinds of things they say to people, that the kinds

00:28:48.920 of things they said to people in the immediate aftermath of October 7th, as the slaughter was

00:28:54.440 ongoing here, they didn't even know there was a problem. They didn't even know there was a conflict or

00:28:58.040 an issue. So yes, it is very centralized in Ottawa. Much of the media kind of interaction as well

00:29:05.880 is controlled out of Ottawa. And the locally engaged staff are just the wrong place to put

00:29:14.120 the attention. The focus and attention should be on the ambassador, the ambassador's staff,

00:29:21.160 on the deputy minister, on the minister. There are many moving parts. But again,

00:29:28.520 this really isn't complicated. Let me give you another quick example. October 7th, I organized

00:29:35.720 civilian evacuation flights with a few other people because there was so much panic. My phone was

00:29:40.840 blowing up. It's a long story. But what I know for a fact is that our key diplomatic staff in Tel Aviv

00:29:49.160 were not here. They were out of country for the Thanksgiving holiday. No one was answering phones.

00:29:55.560 No one was doing anything. We, when I say we, me and my small, very ad hoc team in Israel and in

00:30:01.800 Toronto and Germany put together these civilian evacuation flights. But I also know that the airport

00:30:09.880 in near Tel Aviv was chaotic. Everyone wanted to get out and people just went to the airport to see

00:30:17.240 if they could get themselves on a flight. The other embassies had staff on the ground at the airport

00:30:26.600 helping their citizens from the first moments. Canada? Nothing. This is my point. We're not thinking.

00:30:37.800 We're not acting. This is not rocket science. We are not available to our citizens. You know,

00:30:45.000 to say to somebody in this environment, you want to talk to a human being, get yourself into the consulate

00:30:51.320 in Tel Aviv. Really? Do we do that? And I'd love to know the answer. Do we do that in Ukraine? Do we

00:30:58.760 tell people in Kharkiv if they want to meet with or speak with consular officials that they better get

00:31:05.880 themselves to Kyiv? I don't think so. Yeah. We are out of time, Vivian, but I really want to thank you

00:31:13.480 for this, for talking to us. And I think it would probably be okay if I said thank you on behalf of

00:31:20.680 a number of people who probably aren't in a position to convey their own appreciation of what you're doing

00:31:26.280 personally. So, look, stay safe and keep up the good work. And I really appreciate you briefing us

00:31:35.880 like this at the Western Standard. God bless. Happy to do that. I hope, Nigel, that you

00:31:42.840 come in quieter times and enjoy a beer and a burger on my magnificent porch with my Muskoka chairs.

00:31:50.440 Would love to do that. For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.

HANNAFORD： Israelis agreed on finishing the job in Iran

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