Western Standard - March 08, 2026


HANNAFORD： Oil jumps on Iran war, Alberta deficit shrinks accordingly


Episode Stats

Length

27 minutes

Words per Minute

156.3418

Word Count

4,329

Sentence Count

187

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

2


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Good evening Western Standard viewers and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show of the
00:00:21.460 Western Standard. It is Thursday, March the 5th. With us tonight is Rob Anderson, Chief of Staff
00:00:27.580 to Premier Daniel Smith.
00:00:29.260 Welcome, Mr. Anderson.
00:00:31.300 Hey, good to be here, Nigel.
00:00:32.920 Nice to see you.
00:00:34.500 Last week, Premier Smith's government
00:00:36.960 gave us a $9 billion deficit budget.
00:00:39.860 This raises a lot of questions
00:00:42.280 for Smith loyalists.
00:00:44.600 The deficit was the last thing
00:00:45.940 anybody expected from her
00:00:47.220 when she came to office three years ago.
00:00:50.400 But there we are.
00:00:51.100 Oil prices were down
00:00:52.220 and we're $9 billion in the whole.
00:00:54.680 Two questions then.
00:00:55.560 First, what would it have meant for Albertans if the government had done what her critics are demanding and made the cuts it would have taken to balance the budget?
00:01:06.660 Well, look, deficits are obviously not good.
00:01:12.300 It stinks.
00:01:13.300 I mean, no one likes deficits as a fiscal conservative, which Premier Smith is, and obviously her team and her cabinet are as well.
00:01:20.600 It's tough.
00:01:21.420 Um, but fact of the matter is, is that, um, when we, when, when Premier Smith was first elected,
00:01:28.220 um, oil, the average price of oil is $90. And, um, this year, uh, it's budgeted to be $60.
00:01:36.540 Each dollar difference, every single dollar of difference, uh, in the price of oil is $750
00:01:43.500 million. So we're talking, we're not talking about a few hundred million. We're talking about a
00:01:48.040 difference between $90 oil and $60 oil is $10, $12 billion. It's massive. It's a massive difference
00:01:55.280 on our bottom line. And so in order to balance the budget, you would literally have to cut
00:02:04.920 essentially a third of the public service. And when we say public service, we're not talking
00:02:11.040 about bureaucrats pushing paper in some building. We're talking about nurses on the front line.
00:02:14.420 We're talking about paying a third less doctors.
00:02:17.840 We're talking about a third less teachers.
00:02:20.900 And this after 600,000 people have come here in the last few years.
00:02:25.520 So that just isn't something that the vast majority of Albertans would consider.
00:02:32.360 Now, we have to have a plan to get out of this.
00:02:36.060 We can't do this forever, obviously.
00:02:38.320 And we can't rely on $90 oil, obviously.
00:02:41.560 um you know uh but we've the the plan that the premier's put in place is is uh a short long and
00:02:50.320 medium term long term it's grow the heritage fund to 250 billion dollars we've already doubled it
00:02:54.940 in the last four years um and of course when we do that we'll be able to replace oil and gas revenue
00:03:01.320 with the interest from the fund but the key is now not to to raid that heritage fund to leave it in
00:03:06.420 place to continue to grow it as Norway and other jurisdictions have for the next 20 years or more
00:03:13.300 until it's there. Medium term, it's doubling our oil and gas capacity or egress pipelines because
00:03:19.020 of course, even at lower prices, if you're selling more oil, exporting more oil, it means
00:03:23.780 more revenues. That's the medium term 10-year plan, five, 10-year plan. And then the short-term
00:03:28.480 plan is to make sure that we hold spending well below inflation plus population growth. Obviously,
00:03:34.560 So we had some catch up to do with this 600,000 new individuals coming to Alberta in the last few years.
00:03:42.340 We need to get a hold and get under control immigration.
00:03:45.600 That means taking it over from the federal government and making sure that we don't have these absurd open border policies affecting Alberta and our budget any longer.
00:03:55.060 And it means looking at some of these programs going forward and saying, look, some of these things need to be income tested.
00:04:00.680 We have the most generous social programs, uh, you know, in the country and, um, we just
00:04:06.780 got to make sure that, uh, they are appropriate and that they are right size.
00:04:11.520 Um, and, and for those who really need them, uh, and we're not, uh, giving away taxpayer
00:04:17.320 money to those that, uh, are wealthy enough that they can, that they can do fine.
00:04:21.700 So who actually is out there who's getting money who maybe doesn't really need it?
00:04:26.080 Well, I mean, I think the piece there is that there's a lot of social supports that are intended for people that are financially not able to take care of themselves.
00:04:43.820 And that's always been, you know, conservatives agree that that social safety net is important and we need to make sure it's strong and that the money is getting to those people that do not have the financial wherewithal.
00:04:56.080 or even in some cases, the mental capabilities to take care of themselves.
00:05:02.300 That's what we should be targeting those programs for.
00:05:05.700 Those programs are not meant for individuals that are between two-income homes
00:05:14.480 that are making $300,000 or $250,000 or so forth or have net worths in the millions
00:05:21.100 as we see in some cases.
00:05:23.740 It's like we just, we can't give, we can't be all things to all people.
00:05:28.640 We've got to focus and target our social supports to those that truly need them
00:05:34.120 and make sure that we're, those that can take care of them themselves do so without taxpayer expense.
00:05:41.840 I'm just struggling to imagine who might be having an income of $300,000 a year and qualify for support.
00:05:49.960 Are there very many people in that?
00:05:52.940 I'll give you an example, a senior couple that's worth several million dollars,
00:05:58.320 net worth of several million dollars and completely able to take care of
00:06:02.020 themselves, still qualifying for certain senior benefits.
00:06:05.740 There's, there's examples of this and it's just that we've let it,
00:06:09.400 we've let it go along so far.
00:06:10.640 We've passed the hot potato so long and allowed for these things to happen.
00:06:14.260 But obviously we need to look in and at these things and right-size them
00:06:18.680 because it's, it's not, it's not good for taxpayers and there's others.
00:06:22.540 there's other examples of that so let's just talk about the situation in the middle east and how
00:06:29.100 that affects things i looked this morning oil is that this is an hour ago it may have changed
00:06:33.480 oil was up to 78 dollars west texas u.s dollars obviously that's better than 60 even if it isn't
00:06:42.020 90 how how much does this help well i mean obviously uh it's going to help um for those
00:06:51.740 who don't know, budgets are April 1st to March 31st. That's our fiscal year. And so for the
00:07:01.940 budgets that just is coming to an end, budget 2025-26, it certainly will have an impact.
00:07:09.720 If you recall, I don't have the exact budget number in front of me right now, but the deficit
00:07:14.700 was going to be about $5 billion. Well, there's a chance it will have been cut in half by the end
00:07:21.640 of the uh by the end of the year if this if these prices continue you could see it in kind of the
00:07:26.380 mid twos something like that so just which is great um now for the budget going forward starts
00:07:32.760 april 1st the one that's obviously was just announced um it will have probably some impact
00:07:39.300 because um you know we're seeing forecasts being revised for the year up um you know anywhere from
00:07:45.700 five to ten dollars uh so obviously that's going to have an effect uh obviously we could we i don't
00:07:51.800 think we can count on uh 80 oil for the entire year i mean if that happened yeah well poof we'd
00:07:58.180 have a balanced budget and large surplus but um you know i don't think we can count on that and
00:08:03.140 and we shouldn't count on that i mean the key is is that when we get these when we get when oil
00:08:07.740 becomes 80 85 90 95 a barrel for the year what we need to do is make sure that we don't
00:08:15.600 spend those large surpluses on operational that we did what we did in in 2022-23 when premier
00:08:22.000 smith was first elected uh the large 11 billion dollar or so surplus was put into debt repayment
00:08:29.120 which is a one-time cost of course the heritage fund one-time investment of course and then
00:08:34.480 obviously we were going through a massive um affordability challenge at that at that point
00:08:38.880 so some of the money was actually provided directly back to albertans but the key is
00:08:42.400 Those are all one-time investments or costs.
00:08:46.640 And when we have these big surpluses, we still need to keep operational spending below inflation plus population so that when the price of oil drops again, that we're not, you know, we're not, we're not blowing the budget.
00:08:58.700 Because obviously when it goes down to say $60, I mean, we see the, we see the results, large deficits.
00:09:04.840 One last point on the immigration, it actually leads to one of the other questions on the referenda.
00:09:09.620 but obviously we had a massive increase in population last year and the year
00:09:14.220 before. Is that still continuing?
00:09:17.640 Are people still moving in at that same rate where we've managed to put the
00:09:21.460 brakes on a little?
00:09:23.980 I would say yes, kind of. And what I mean by that is like just, you know,
00:09:30.060 last year our population still grew by 2.5% in 2025. It's huge.
00:09:35.340 That's a huge one-time growth rate.
00:09:37.540 um uh it's you know our population is now over 5 million people now 2026 we think it's slowing
00:09:44.860 down a bit uh mostly because we're having less uh temporary foreign workers coming in uh because
00:09:51.780 the federal government even the federal government has has admitted that that this has gotten out of
00:09:56.760 control so they've taken some steps however because of inter-provincial migration of people
00:10:02.900 already here alberta will still be probably the only province uh with substantial growth in 2026
00:10:09.860 just because we have these are where the jobs are this is where the opportunity is this is a
00:10:14.020 amazing place to live and so when people get you know to on you know ontario come back in other
00:10:18.900 places and then they they look west and say that's somewhere i want to be a part of and and they come
00:10:24.340 so not only that but we already had 600 000 people in the last four years they're here now so we we
00:10:31.940 have to take care of that issue. And what I mean by that is, if you look at the referendum
00:10:36.700 questions, we have to decide when we're going to have temporary workers, temporary guests
00:10:43.440 in our province pay for the social services that they use. We're not talking about citizens. We're
00:10:49.140 not talking about permanent residents that have paid taxes for years and so forth. We're talking
00:10:53.420 about people that are here as guests of our country. And I mean, I don't know about you,
00:10:59.140 nigel but when i go travel somewhere or if i wanted to live somewhere for four months or a
00:11:04.760 year or whatever it was i'm not sure any albertan doing that would think that oh that government
00:11:10.080 has a responsibility to pay for my health care my education my social supports my my this that
00:11:16.360 the other thing that would be insane to think that of course that'd be i mean i i say that's
00:11:21.720 unalbertan to think that and why then do we do that on the other side of the ledger and say yeah
00:11:27.540 come to Alberta. Uh, and the moment you get here, even though you haven't paid a lick of tax,
00:11:32.420 we're just going to give you all our social program. We'll take care of you. That's, that's
00:11:35.960 a silly, economically insane thing to do. And it needs to stop because if we keep doing it,
00:11:43.020 um, all we're, all we're doing is, is what we're bankrupting ourselves. And it means poorer,
00:11:48.640 you know, or more stressed programs, education, healthcare, social supports for those Albertans
00:11:54.140 that have, that are citizens that had been here, uh, for, you know, their entire lives or a large
00:12:00.140 portion of their lives paying taxes. And then, you know, they see not enough schools, not enough
00:12:05.080 nurses, not enough doctors. So we've got, we've got to just, you know, we'll, we'll have to ignore
00:12:09.660 the, you know, the infantile comments of, of Nenshi and others that call it racist to deal with this,
00:12:16.260 with this issue um it's not it applies to it applies to all guests uh guests uh temporary
00:12:23.820 residents in our in our uh province regardless of what their backgrounds might be and it's making
00:12:30.580 sure that we um that we attack that we attack this issue we're talking we're taking the problem
00:12:37.180 is not with immigrants the problem is with the system the immigration system and open borders
00:12:42.660 policies that Prime Minister Trudeau brought in, and it has caused massive strife across
00:12:50.740 the country, from social disorder to, you know, to stretch social services and everything.
00:13:00.060 This leads quite naturally to the question of the referendum on immigration that you
00:13:05.020 proposed for later in the year. I mean, great idea, Rob, those and the other things where the
00:13:13.180 government is actually going to the people to find out what the people want. But I'm wondering,
00:13:18.780 you're having it on the same day as the referendum on independence. If the answer on independence is
00:13:30.060 yes, there's not much point in having an opinion on all these other things.
00:13:34.460 Why don't do it on two different days?
00:13:37.580 Well, first off, there's a couple of reasons.
00:13:39.940 Uh, first off the, um, uh, stay free Alberta, uh, petitioners
00:13:46.060 have not reached their signatures yet.
00:13:48.060 So, uh, there may not be a referendum, uh, unless they reach, unless
00:13:52.200 they reach those signatures.
00:13:52.980 So that's number one.
00:13:54.380 Uh, number two, um, a referendum is extremely expensive.
00:13:58.680 a referendum is going to cost upwards of 30 million 40 million dollars uh it costs about
00:14:05.480 the same as a provincial election like we're not talking about small change here um and so especially
00:14:11.440 in this environment that we're in uh it does not make sense to have two separate standalone uh
00:14:17.180 referendums so if the state uh free alberta petitioners i think if i'm getting that right
00:14:23.740 if they get their uh signatures the premier's been very clear that'll be added to the referendum
00:14:27.960 ballot and and we'll see what albertans have to say about it all right okay a few moments ago you
00:14:36.140 made a reference to people coming to alberta from central canada uh liking what they see and staying
00:14:43.280 they should uh what about bc i mean if i wanted to get out of anywhere i would get out of there
00:14:52.020 property rights are up in the air and nobody knows if they even exist anymore.
00:14:57.140 So I want to ask you a little bit about our approach to that entire question of indigenous
00:15:02.900 ownership or not ownership of the land. Alberta is ceded land, the whole of it,
00:15:09.140 and it's held under one of several numbered treaties. However, in a judicial system that
00:15:14.980 habitually rewrites laws and agreements from the bench, how sure are you that these treaties are
00:15:20.900 are going to hold up and mean anything of all the people who could have been premier right now
00:15:26.260 danielle smith cut her political teeth on property rights how is her government preparing for this
00:15:34.320 well there's a big difference between alberta and bc right the the number one difference is we have
00:15:41.460 uh very clearly worded um clearly understood uh treaties treaties six seven and eight
00:15:49.240 uh and with with uh first nations partners and um you know there's been obviously a lot of
00:15:57.580 litigation and um constitutional discussions about those treaties and what they include and what they
00:16:06.160 don't include and so forth so it's very settled law uh in alberta and that's been very positive
00:16:11.060 for us because it allows us to negotiate with our First Nations partners on various economic
00:16:21.680 projects and so forth that have been very mutually beneficial for both Albertans and
00:16:30.400 including First Nations that are located in Alberta. So it's been positive. BC is very
00:16:37.660 different i'm not an expert in hereditary rights uh and these sorts of things so i'm not going to
00:16:44.040 comment uh too much on on that just because i'm not i don't have a lot of knowledge of the subject
00:16:48.600 matter uh but they have they don't have the same treaties that we do that are that are clearly
00:16:54.220 articulated you know obviously i look at what's going on in the lower mainland and yeah it's
00:17:00.620 shocking as someone who believes that property rights are one of the key foundations of our
00:17:07.420 democratic system of government, I look at what's happening there and it's distressing.
00:17:18.360 And all I can say is that I don't believe we have those same problems in Alberta. I don't
00:17:24.480 believe we're going to have those same problems in Alberta. And this premier and this government
00:17:28.780 have been very clear that the protection of personal property rights is sacrosanct and
00:17:33.160 will not be compromised for any reason
00:17:35.220 whatsoever. I think we should
00:17:37.280 stop offering land acknowledges.
00:17:39.400 That's what I think. What do you think?
00:17:42.580 Trying to get
00:17:43.200 me in trouble here, Nigel.
00:17:46.940 Trying to get me in trouble here.
00:17:49.620 Yeah, look.
00:17:50.480 Well, it's not a, you know, I won't push you on that,
00:17:53.340 but it's,
00:17:55.080 you know, if enough people at enough
00:17:57.100 time say, you know what?
00:17:59.080 We're actually on your land.
00:18:01.060 Thanks very much.
00:18:01.900 it does start to give people ideas about personal ownership in a way they'd never thought of
00:18:08.120 otherwise. Let me move on. I want to talk about energy security a bit. You've just talked about
00:18:14.060 how many people have moved into Alberta. So now we need more power. I seem to recall that during
00:18:22.220 Ms. Smith's first winter as premier, that would be January 2023, we had a near-miss brownouts
00:18:29.180 when we all had a lesson that interruptible power sources like sun and wind couldn't be depended on.
00:18:36.180 But we still had the Trudeau government, as it then was, demanding net zero on the grid,
00:18:42.180 and we had to discuss indemnifying power generation CEOs.
00:18:46.640 If they went ahead and produced the power it took to keep people alive in Alberta's bitter winters.
00:18:52.600 Since then, we've had another half a million people move in, you know, 16% population growth in three and a half hours. How are we doing in balancing demand for electricity with supply?
00:19:07.380 A lot better than we were. And you can tell that obviously by the power prices, which have dropped substantially since when Pringersmith took office. And, you know, obviously we had a huge issue with far too many renewables being brought on the grid.
00:19:28.540 and um and it was you know obviously when you needed the renewables most in the winters and
00:19:34.000 on uh dark nights um they weren't available and uh but yet we were um you know getting to a
00:19:40.860 situation where no one was building uh you know any uh new baseload electricity from natural gas
00:19:48.080 uh it was all renewables and of course you know renewables have their place and they can be very
00:19:52.880 unofficial if done properly and, and in the right ratio with, uh, with baseload electricity.
00:19:59.320 Um, but, uh, it had, the ratio was completely out of whack.
00:20:03.060 And so obviously we took, took many steps that were controversial to get that ratio
00:20:07.340 back to where it should be.
00:20:08.500 We were successful.
00:20:10.300 Um, obviously the, the MOU signed with, um, the federal government was a massive victory
00:20:17.140 and that we were able to get them to finally abandon the clean electricity regulations,
00:20:23.740 as they call them, the net zero power regs.
00:20:25.940 This has opened up a flood of new investment in natural gas-based power
00:20:31.440 for AI data centers, but also just for baseload.
00:20:34.900 So things are looking up.
00:20:36.480 It was a disaster ready to happen.
00:20:40.220 We had obviously, we had brownouts.
00:20:41.600 We came within a hair's breadth of grid failures several times in the first couple of winters following Premier Smith's election as Premier.
00:20:58.000 And, you know, obviously the one we'd just gone through, the winter, we're just, we're not done it yet.
00:21:03.060 Obviously, this is Alberta.
00:21:04.040 There's still probably another two left of winter.
00:21:07.000 But so far, nothing remotely close.
00:21:09.440 And that's with 600,000 more people here.
00:21:12.920 So we've done, you know, the Premier's done a remarkable job of that file as his Minister Newdorf.
00:21:17.440 And, you know, we expect things to calm down and get back to equilibrium as we move forward.
00:21:23.400 So how much baseload generation have we built in the last three years, added to the grid?
00:21:28.740 I don't have those numbers in front of me, but a lot, several thousand megawatts have come online just in the last year.
00:21:38.580 um i'd have to i'd have to get that that information for you separately all right
00:21:42.800 are the coal plants capable of being resuscitated if there was the need and the will to do it
00:21:48.260 well there's not they've already been uh retrofitted uh the ones that were you know
00:21:55.040 they've always been retrofitted to to take natural gas so i'm not sure there would be much
00:22:00.880 reason to do that especially because natural gas uh is actually you know in in uh you know in our
00:22:09.320 view is the uh is that is the fuel for electricity uh you know for the next decade two decades maybe
00:22:16.540 even more um it's very cheap in alberta as you know it's we have an ocean of it under our feet
00:22:22.440 it's clean uh it's you know it's it's it's easy to stand up relatively quickly um the technology
00:22:30.020 is very is very you know settled understood it's just it's a really good way to create
00:22:38.340 baseload power at a cheap cost for rate payers so I think our what we're focused on is making
00:22:44.560 sure that you know we have natural gas electricity coming into our province to help with our
00:22:49.540 baseload and then of course so an appropriate amount of renewables in places that make sense
00:22:56.060 and then, of course, transitioning over time, probably over decades, to nuclear,
00:23:03.740 which is probably the long, long-term solution for our electricity mix.
00:23:09.460 So last question, last thing we want to talk about with you, Rob.
00:23:13.000 We have an education system in a conservatively-minded province
00:23:17.960 in which this conservative government is paying a left-wing Alberta Teachers Association
00:23:25.980 to churn out future NDP voters.
00:23:29.400 Seriously, they are prescribing left-wing diatribes
00:23:32.920 as textbooks in the teachers' training colleges.
00:23:36.200 Now, this has been going on for all of the three years
00:23:39.740 that Ms. Smith has been in government.
00:23:42.460 What is the plan to deal with that?
00:23:46.340 Well, you should have Minister Nicolaides on your show
00:23:50.320 because he's already done and is continuing
00:23:53.300 to do, you know, make several reforms that return our classrooms to what they should be,
00:24:04.500 which is institutions where our children learn reading, math, you know, social, basic social
00:24:12.140 studies, geography, countries, science, the things that you send your school, your kids to school
00:24:20.360 for. I mean, I've got five boys. Uh, they've all been through the public system. Um, some years
00:24:26.500 were great. Uh, we had fantastic teachers, um, that followed the curriculum closely and didn't
00:24:32.080 politicize anything whatsoever that we're aware of and that the kids were aware of, uh, which is
00:24:36.940 great. Those are, those teachers are awesome. And, um, you know, I, uh, I have an extremely soft spot
00:24:42.540 in my heart for those, uh, for those teachers. Cause they, you know, I, I don't even know what
00:24:46.520 their political affiliation is. And I appreciate that. I don't want to know, especially if they're
00:24:49.920 teaching my kids uh but yeah we like probably every parent in alberta have also had the uh
00:24:55.780 the um experience of uh of a teacher uh or two or three uh that have decided to use their um
00:25:06.180 their position of authority to um push their agenda uh their personal political agenda
00:25:13.060 and that's unacceptable that's not what they're there for uh i don't know who you know when when
00:25:17.700 You get a teacher at the beginning of the year, you don't know who they are.
00:25:20.040 You don't know what their background is.
00:25:21.160 You don't know what their political beliefs are.
00:25:23.140 And you shouldn't have to.
00:25:24.560 And that's the point.
00:25:25.320 We need to get politics and, you know, social warriors out of the political, or sorry, out of the classroom.
00:25:34.760 That's not what the classroom is for.
00:25:36.880 It's for teaching basics.
00:25:39.080 100% agreed.
00:25:40.600 I think that point through to Gil McGowan as he tries to lead the working people of Alberta in striding revolt
00:25:46.380 against the fascist government
00:25:49.140 that governs the province, right?
00:25:52.900 Well, look...
00:25:53.920 Maybe the 29th all out on strike
00:25:56.140 or whatever the game is.
00:25:58.680 Hey, you know, free speech.
00:26:00.040 Fill your boots, Gil.
00:26:01.340 Yeah.
00:26:02.260 It's not...
00:26:03.300 I don't think we...
00:26:04.920 You know, Gil McGowan's kind of embarrassed himself
00:26:06.580 over the last couple of years
00:26:07.580 with his silliness and idle threats and so forth.
00:26:12.700 But if he, if he wants to have a big protest, that's certainly his right.
00:26:18.440 And it's the right of anybody who wants to join in and that's okay.
00:26:21.080 I mean, that's, that's part of free speech.
00:26:23.440 We, we, you know, you know, we can, uh, what's the, what's the term is, uh, you know, like
00:26:28.900 you, um, you may not agree with the word the other side says, but we need to be willing
00:26:33.800 to defend the right to say it.
00:26:35.440 So that's what we think.
00:26:36.900 I don't know whether they're so emphatic themselves, but, uh, look, we're out of time.
00:26:41.000 I'm sorry.
00:26:41.380 this is great stuff. I appreciate you coming on the show, Rob. I just want to thank you.
00:26:47.780 Pleasure, Nigel. Always good to see you.
00:26:50.980 You too. For the Western Standard, I'm Nigel Hannaford.
00:27:11.380 Thank you.