00:04:03.100When you read the Clarity Act, it sounds like it's describing a process that if you kind of follow the process and do all of the things you're supposed to do, it will naturally lead through independence.
00:04:16.820But when you get right down to it and you look at, there are sort of four gates, I would say, that you have to get through.
00:04:23.320One is you have to have a clear question.
00:04:25.500The second one is you have to get a clear majority.
00:04:28.000The third one is you have to complete negotiations on appropriate constitutional amendment, and then you have to get the constitutional amendment passed.
00:04:38.380And in three of those four gates, the federal government has the key, so it decides if the question in its mind is clear, whether the majority in its mind is clear, and it's in charge of the negotiations.
00:04:51.080and then it's over to the rest of the provinces and the way it's written up it looks like
00:04:56.540to get the amendment seven out of the other 10 provinces have to approve it so it really is
00:05:02.460on the surface of it maybe a well-defined process but in the details it's a real problem to
00:05:09.840execute successfully i see now just to clear one point before we go any further
00:05:18.360Stephen Harper had a go at drafting legislation to prevent separation.
00:05:23.880Is that the legislation that we're dealing with now?
00:05:27.560Well, not really. They're about the same as night and day. Mr. Harper's version
00:05:36.440of the Clarity Act was in fact pretty clear. He wanted it well understood by the people in Quebec.
00:05:43.320This was all originally targeted at Quebec.
00:05:46.500We wanted the people to understand that they weren't voting for something wish-to-washy like Sovereignty Association or some kind of revised federalism.
00:06:40.620Still very difficult to achieve, mind you, but it was clear what you had to do.
00:06:46.700The current one is just the opposite. While it appears clear all of the requirements to get
00:06:54.140past the gates, there are no objective criteria for deciding whether you've met them,
00:06:59.260either the question or the majority. Well, I think that's kind of an important
00:07:03.900thing for people in Alberta to know. So, look, you've really studied this,
00:07:09.500in addition to the first article there's two more coming uh let's just say that the the efforts of
00:07:17.020those people who are seeking independence for alberta were very successful and we have an
00:07:23.500undeniably strong vote in favor of separation walk us through a realistic day after you just
00:07:35.740have this strong vote in alberta one of the most likely federal or provincial responses that could
00:07:41.820derail the process and how much might aboriginal treaty rights or other provinces factor into
00:07:48.540blocking or complicating these negotiations what's it going to be like well i think probably the very
00:07:55.820first me at the provincial level is that the people who are we're seeking independence if we
00:08:00.860if they got a really clear majority, would be ecstatic.
00:08:04.240There'd be parties all over the place.
00:08:06.400How the provincial government would respond is another question.
00:08:10.280I mean, at the present, Premier Smith is kind of walking on a tightrope a bit.
00:08:15.820She's sort of advocating for a sovereign Alberta with the United Canada.
00:08:20.840And so in that case, with the people voting for the independence route,
00:08:27.200she would potentially be in an awkward position although having gotten her marching orders if
00:08:36.480you like from the people you probably would have a pretty clear mandate what the federal government
00:08:42.460would do i suspect is is first point out that they have to consult with a large number of people
00:08:50.280a large number of different bodies or parties as to whether or not the result really is a tier
00:08:59.460majority. And for kind of all sorts of nuances that might come into play in that, for example,
00:09:05.600in Quebec, before the Quebec government had its referendum, the First Nations had their own
00:09:12.220referendum and they voted in excess of 90%, I think it was like 96%, to stay as part of Canada.
00:09:18.780So the federal government might want to examine how that vote was split up between polling locations that were clearly First Nations and others that weren't.
00:09:31.780Also in the Quebec referendum, there was a very presided split between urban and rural.
00:09:39.780The rural ridings voted overwhelmingly for independence, and several of the urban ridings, particularly the ones with large English language content, they voted overwhelmingly to remain part of Canada.
00:09:57.000And it was that vote, in fact, that vote in Los Alipos, like a handful of ridings, that that vote was enough to make the difference between independence and remitting in Canada.
00:10:09.180I think probably the federal government will try to reserve judgment for a little while
00:10:15.260until they've had the opportunity to examine all of the potential things that we could
00:10:20.940use that they could take into consideration.
00:10:24.860So now you have a vote and you have a pretty clear indication of how Albertans feel
00:10:33.660and it was in favor of separation and the federal government because obviously it can't afford to
00:10:41.580agree to it alberta is the powerhouse of the entire confederation we leave take our money
00:10:47.780there's not much left uh so they have to stop this somehow um once they've run out of arguments
00:10:55.780and they say no because no is what we think.
00:12:44.700But the Supreme Court acknowledged that in its decision. It said the other option, of course, is that legal or not legal, if the province would declare, unilaterally declare independence, what followed next would depend on the international response.
00:13:00.540what, if any, countries would recognize this new country
00:13:05.020and what, if anything, those countries might do about it
00:13:09.160in the event that the federal government wanted to institute
00:13:12.360some sort of policing action, if you like, given that the UDI is a fee.
00:13:16.920And they acknowledged that that was a possibility
00:13:19.080and it would all depend on the response from the international community.
00:13:25.300Well, of course, the only international community that really matters
00:14:39.120Well, it does sort of, except we both have lived through the previous session with
00:14:45.240Quebec so we know it's can indeed happen that the way you've described it
00:14:51.900yeah that's that's unusual I just like to elaborate on one thing perhaps in
00:14:59.480terms of what the federal government might do one option that it has is to
00:15:11.080simply kind of go through the process because the very last step in the process is the passing of
00:15:19.960the constitutional amendment by seven out of ten provinces and so they could let everything go
00:15:25.480through that on the assumption that that's not going to happen but it won't be their fault right
00:15:32.200it would be the people of canada through their elected representatives in the other province
00:15:37.560provinces who are high bashing the whole thing that's another option as well and that but then
00:15:43.160we're around to the same outcome what then for albert what do they do so i i've looked ahead
00:15:50.600skipped ahead into your uh second article here and the one that we haven't published yet uh you
00:15:57.320probably you suggest a possible way out of the mess that's your uh that's your quote um so what
00:16:04.600high-level alternatives or reforms to the Clarity Act and the constitutional presences or Alberta's
00:16:11.720approach do you see as more constructive for addressing Western alienation while preserving
00:16:19.080stability? You don't just get the provinces to say no and cause a problem. Is there something
00:16:24.680more positive that we can be looking at here? Well, this is maybe going to sound like a bit
00:16:30.680of a hedge but it seems to me that the situation that is currently involved offers a pretty good
00:16:37.320opportunity in the sense that there's there's an opportunity now for albertans to send a very
00:16:43.880clear message that changes to the federation are needed and and there are fundamental changes that
00:16:52.200need to be made to the federation not only for alberta's medical but for everybody's been
00:16:57.080But they have an opportunity now with a question that is put forward by Premier Smith that is not going to actually lead to separation unless that those changes cannot be put in place.
00:17:14.460So Albertans have an opportunity to send everybody else in Canada a very clear message that they want to see some changes or they will have another think about whether or not they really want to be part of the Federation.
00:17:28.740And I think there's a very measured and incremental way to go about that.
00:17:37.660One is you can think Albertans can propose a number of changes that the federal government is entirely in control of, such as repealing the nine bad laws.
00:17:48.580Then they can propose a change which maybe is a little bit more awkward.
00:17:53.120You guys had a referendum a while ago on the re-equalization program that said, we'd like to see that out of the Constitution.
00:18:02.060Well, that's a constitutional amendment, which everybody recognizes is a little bit difficult.
00:18:06.360But you can change the formula, which is just an agreement of most parties.
00:18:11.460And in fact, there was an essay that I wrote for the C2C Journal some while ago that explored an alternative formula for the equalization program,
00:18:21.280which was perfectly straightforward and would solve many of the problems that the current one
00:18:26.440has. So that's the second step is to do that. And then the third step is to say, and here are a
00:18:32.360bunch of constitutional amendments that need to be made to preserve the federation. And those could
00:18:39.700be whatever, you know, better representation by population, a triple E Senate, which we pursued
00:18:46.560before those sorts of things they're getting a little bit more difficult but you've got the
00:18:52.000first two steps is in the indicative of whether or not people are actually even interested in
00:18:57.040pursuing the third one well that would be a possible outlook could be taken so it sounds
00:19:03.440actually quite a lot what uh opposition leader pierre poilier was saying in calvary on monday
00:19:08.560i don't know whether you managed to catch that address uh but the idea was somehow that we need
00:19:16.640to make alliances on matters of specific interest with other provinces which sounds great but you
00:19:24.880know we've been this route before with the reform party the west wants in we were sincere about that
00:19:34.160the rest of the country thought it apparently a little laughable because it never actually took
00:19:40.400east of the ontario border with manitoba so i guess people in alberta are very skeptical about
00:19:50.240anything to do with the federal government and their intentions and how they would use the
00:19:56.560clarity act against us so i you know i'm going to give you the last word because we're almost out of
00:20:02.320time but can you send us off on any kind of an optimistic footing here that alberta can find
00:20:10.480some kind of stability within confederation or are we really going to have to look abroad to see who
00:20:18.080our friends are well i i'd like to think that if if the approach that i just discussed that sort
00:20:25.200of three-step approach was perceived you'd get a pretty quick indication as to whether or not
00:20:31.360the rest of the Federation is interested in making some accommodations and I'd like to think they
00:20:37.920would be. I sort of disagree with Pierre that you need to make alliances with provinces on
00:20:44.480individual things. The issue is not so much policies and to my mind it's not so much policies
00:20:51.520and legislation because you can get those changed but if there's not some fundamental changes made
00:20:57.520they can all be reinstituted again with some future government what in my mind would be much
00:21:02.720better is some fundamental change to the structure of our governors although those things aren't
00:21:07.760possible in the crystals well i think jim we we all want fundamental changes in the structure
00:21:15.600of government except people who live outside alberta that's the problem isn't it that would
00:21:20.800be me and i want it good do you think there are many people like you back there in ontario
00:21:26.480uh that's a very good question all my family
00:21:31.520okay i hope it's a big one because we're going to need their votes so jim let me ask you one
00:21:36.160more thing here in alberta we have a referendum on whether to have a referendum coming up
00:21:42.000obviously this is a pretty big deal if that referendum on whether to have a referendum
00:21:52.080fails does that settle the issue i think what it settles is that alberta is now that they're
00:22:02.720happy with or albertans have now said they're happy with the status quo so in the future if
00:22:08.720they have any complaints about the situation in canada such as the equalization program or things
00:22:15.120like that the uh the powers that be will simply point to that uh referendum and say look you
00:22:21.520already voted that we're happy with the situation in canada so let's just quiet and get on with it
00:22:27.520and i think that's a real a real uh risk exactly the current the coming referendum not being
00:22:35.360resoundingly voted in favor so speak now or forever hold thy peace pretty much pretty much
00:22:43.680so that's actually an important consideration when trying to explain the actions of the premier
00:22:50.800as she as she pushes this forward if she gets a no vote then her actions are more or less endorsed
00:22:59.200she gets a strong yes vote i'm sure she'll take that into account is that how you see it well yes
00:23:04.880i think i think a no vote is we just carry on carrying on and a yes vote is maybe maybe there
00:23:11.280can be some changes made you know and and here are the changes we'd like to see made and let's
00:23:15.200see if we can make this work all right look jim mason nuclear scientist and engineer bringing the
00:23:24.320logic of science to the intensely emotional matter of alberta independence and the rest of canada's
00:23:32.080attitude to it thank you so much for joining us jim we'll be running the second article as soon as
00:23:36.960we have it and with that I'm Nigel Hannaford for the Western Standard