00:00:50.720I haven't been out to get anywhere that actually sells a poppy yet today, so you have to forgive me.
00:00:54.860Especially Corey. Corey, I'm not a member of the NDP caucus here.
00:00:59.320Okay, I'll leave you out of my photos, yeah.
00:01:03.940Okay, we're going to talk about a bit of the fallout from the BC election,
00:01:09.960particularly just some of the meltdown that's taken place.
00:01:14.440You'd think that the Reichstag fire has happened.
00:01:18.200Lauren Dirksen has seized all executive power and banned the opposition.
00:01:23.440Very serious stuff taking place on the West Coast.
00:01:26.940You wouldn't think that a relatively middle-of-the-road normie, for lack of a better term, kind of milquetoast conservative was elected.
00:01:34.780You'd think BC has just abolished the legislature, invested all powers in Lord Dirksen.
00:01:42.700um but before that we're going to start closer to home uh with the continuing fallout from
00:01:50.460the alberta series of referenda uh there's been a lot of noise about uh rebellion and a leadership
00:02:01.900review uh and i'm not quite sure yet what to make of it that's why we're going to talk it out
00:02:08.200four constituency associations in Alberta. I think it's roughly 22. If 22 of the 87
00:02:14.160constituencies for the UCP pass a special resolution at their board level,
00:02:18.900they can force a special general meeting for a leadership review. That is essentially how
00:02:23.020Jason Kenney was removed from power. They had a lot more than 22. At the latest count,
00:02:29.580there's been four. The UCP's president, Rob Smith, sent out an email last night saying that
00:02:35.300I think virtually all of the rest of them have passed resolutions saying they don't want a leadership review.
00:02:41.400We've got some reporters trying to verify that.
00:02:43.640That seems like a big and oppressive number, but I'm not sure.
00:02:50.220But there have been voices coming from at least some quarters of the independence movement
00:02:55.180really trying to rattle the cage and say, Danielle Smith is the enemy.
00:03:01.060She's the reason we lost and we can't go forward as long as she is the leader and the premier.
00:03:05.300Start with you, Corey. Is this a real thing or is this just a few malcontents and, you know, just four of the 87 constituency associations? How real is this move to oust Smith from the leadership?
00:03:20.280Well, I think it's the same voices we heard years ago, the 1905 committee, the usual chronic malcontents, though they are backed with a larger group of people after gathering so many over the course of that whole referendum campaign.
00:03:34.160So there are going to be a lot of discontented voices.
00:03:37.020They're listening to these leaders and feeling that this might be the reason that the referendum was lost and they're latching onto that message.
00:03:45.820It should be kept in mind that the prime voices on this were screaming about Premier Smith two years before the referendum was called as well.
00:03:52.180It seems more personal than realistic, but it could cause a heck of a distraction at the AGM.
00:03:58.320I mean, this is going to be a big one.
00:03:59.440This is the last AGM before the next general election, and we're seeing, I guess, the battles going on as to how to try and put this to bed or not.
00:04:06.800I think it's somewhat serious as it could cause a headache, but I don't think there's any real overwhelming move to try and replace her.
00:04:14.560It's not similar to the circumstance with Jason Kenney of a few years ago, though some people like to think it might be.
00:04:20.120One of the things is these guys tell you what they don't like, which is Daniel Smith.
00:04:24.440They don't tell you what they're for, other than they want to sort of revisit independence.
00:04:30.020Well, I mean, there may be a time for that, but I don't think the time is now.
00:04:33.500Never mind the Premier has said, I don't think, like everybody's bored with it.
00:04:37.580If it had been 45% or something where, okay, we could claim there was somebody put their thumb on the scale or things like that,
00:06:30.920He didn't really, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he actually got into saying, hey, all you independence people, get out of here, take off.
00:06:38.860But he did say, look, the leadership is just not changing.
00:06:41.920We've got enough constituency associations that are backing the Premier, so it's not worth having a fight over.
00:06:52.900Smith has been using more divisive language.
00:06:57.860You know, she did an interview with the CBC a few days ago where she said she doesn't need independents supporters in her party, which I think mathematically is highly debatable.
00:07:09.720It makes up a majority of UCP voters, not a big majority, but a majority.
00:07:14.920And I'd chance to say probably a fairly big majority of its active members.
00:07:19.360And then now this just started going around.
00:07:23.440Everybody running for the party's board at the AGM coming up in November here is expected to sign this loyalty pledge.
00:07:32.640It's actually kind of reminiscent of after the U.S. Civil War, defeated Southerners were required to swear the Pledge of Allegiance.
00:07:43.200The Pledge of Allegiance that you support the United States and the United States is indivisible.
00:07:47.400You can never fight about splitting it again.
00:07:49.480And you cannot vote or run for office unless you swear the Pledge of Allegiance.
00:07:53.740And we've got this now, this written pledge, essentially, that everybody running for the ECP board has to sign saying,
00:08:00.200we accept uh the results on the referendum the independent side of the referendum and we drop
00:08:07.120it for all time essentially it's an odd thing to do and i've and i've never seen it before
00:08:12.880uh i know party people who want to run for elected office often have to pledge to support
00:08:18.560the party's platform and values etc etc i've never seen this before however for an internal
00:08:25.120party elected position like the board of directors and party president etc um maybe i'll put it put
00:08:32.160it back to to cory then um that that that strikes me as unusual and perhaps needlessly antagonistic
00:08:40.160to the people that smith probably should be trying to win over it is unusual i mean you gotta look at
00:08:47.520the phrasing despite what some of the the again some of the people are losing it over though it
00:08:51.920It is unusual and it's asking a bit, but it's talking along of just saying you accept those and it doesn't say you can't have the views or that you may not be able to promote them down the road.
00:08:59.760But your role as a director is not to promote that particular stance while you're in there because Albertans have voted.
00:09:08.080It just shows that there's a risk still that they see, I think.
00:09:11.240I mean, I believe, and I listened to some of the language of the usual folks online, that they are failing in getting the constituencies like they wanted to.
00:09:18.000So they pivoted to try and take over the board because they think they can take over the party through the board.
00:09:23.920And they're defensively setting up to say, you know, if any of those board members go offline after they've signed that, they can eject them and say, well, you didn't listen to what you signed coming in.
00:09:44.060And even if it's just a small amount of loud people who are representing that, if you tick off the thousands underneath and that small amount of people manages to form a party with a few thousand members, they could really cause almost as much harm as getting in within the board.
00:09:59.460So there's a delicate dance, I think, going on.
00:10:02.780And Smith's been prone to overcorrecting, I think.
00:10:04.720Seems to me it's an easy way to keep the troublemakers out.
00:10:08.560You've got this faction that hates Smith with a venom.
00:10:12.020They've realized they can't do it with a leadership review,
00:10:15.000so they're going to try and take over the board.
00:10:17.880And this letter, this pledge, gives the party the right,
00:10:25.220It seems to be like a cover-your-ass thing.
00:10:26.700Hold on, before Nigel goes, I don't think it actually does that.
00:10:31.440I mean, a pledge that someone's forced to sign to be allowed to stand for election
00:10:36.060matters as much as an oath to the king made by a elected member of the party quebecois to the
00:10:42.700quebec national assembly you know if you're if you're forced to take a pledge you're forced to
00:10:47.660make an oath the oath actually doesn't really hold much moral weight i mean it's like uh being
00:10:55.200forced to sign a document with a gun to your head keep your fingers you're not actually that yeah
00:11:00.760Yeah, you're not, I don't think you're actually really morally bound to it.
00:11:05.940And so I think a lot of people be like, fine, I'll sign your pledge, and then we'll just work to do this anyway.
00:11:11.980And so it seems to me, you know, she wants to keep out the perennial malcontents, the people who are always upset, who for things are never enough.
00:11:21.840But the concern to me, Nigel, is that this kind of thing needlessly just kind of puts a little salt in the wound and needles people who are not perennial malcontents, but who might not be very happy right now.
00:11:37.020And it could push them into a more antagonistic position against her.
00:11:44.360We're dealing with a situation where there aren't any answers that pleases everybody.
00:11:49.520So what I see them doing is making sure that they don't have a run of stories leading up to the election where people in key positions or positions that are perceived to be key are revealed by antagonistic going through the Facebook and X and everything.
00:12:10.400This person is a secret separatist and they're a board member.
00:12:14.280this person is a secret and just a drip feed of stories coming out in the run-up to the election
00:12:21.240of people who are disloyal that's what they're trying to get away from so this way they've got
00:12:27.080it covered a lot of people will probably take the oath that the pledge at his face value and say
00:12:33.160well if we sign it we'll observe it those that don't come out later as as separatists the premier
00:12:40.840and the party is perfect right to say look you signed the pledge you broke your word
00:12:44.760sorry you're not a member anymore you find somebody else so this is about damage control
00:12:51.320before the before the uh the torpedo has even arrived yeah i know that's the intent of this
00:12:59.720but i'm not sure it's going to work you know it's uh you know it's the analogy of you know
00:13:05.240You know, the tender you close your fist, the more the more people will slip between your fingers.
00:13:11.360You're in a better position if you have actually told little Johnny Smith that if you're going to be on the board, this is the deal.
00:13:18.700And then Johnny Smith walks away from it three months before the election.
00:13:23.240It doesn't damage you nearly as much as just saying, look, well, that's assuming she has the authority to enforce it, though.
00:13:29.900Like a majority of UCP voters voted for independence or the process for independence.
00:13:35.240And a probably big majority of its members voted and supported the process of independence.
00:13:41.460It's not like this is a small minority, a small troublesome minority that can be pushed out.
00:13:47.980These are largely the people who put her into the leadership when she talked, when she campaigned for the leadership on the Sovereignty Act,
00:13:54.240which at the time was a much more muscular, significantly more muscular piece of legislation proposed than was actually passed.
00:14:00.880These are not people I think she can push aside.
00:14:03.160She's in a tough position where the majority of her party are supporters of independence, but the majority of Alberta is not, and she has to walk that balance, and it's very difficult.
00:14:15.700I don't think she's been walking it very well since some point in mid-July, but now, as Corey put it, she seems to be over-correcting, and that could put her leadership in jeopardy.
00:14:32.140Well, I don't fundamentally disagree with your assessment of the risk,
00:14:37.900but it's a matter of picking the risk that you think is going to hurt you least.
00:14:51.240And if she spends the next year doing things that people like,0.61
00:14:55.420like making sure that DEI is not part of the hiring process,
00:14:59.680And if you want a government job, then they'll sort of grudgingly take her anyway as being better, at least, than the NDP, which will be, of course, trying to push the wedge in on these divisions for all it's worth.
00:15:15.180And with oil prices above $100 still, we're going to be awash in money, and she's going to be able to promise to build everything in sight and give everybody raises, and by the election time, everybody's happy again, and the angry UCP separatists will go into the ballot box room and say, well, I'm not going to vote for Nenshi, and vote for Smith.
00:16:06.380But I also understand you take your losses when they come.
00:16:09.760I think a lot of the members within it are feeling the same.
00:16:11.800Just because they're independent supporters doesn't mean they're willing to burn down the house around them because they didn't get their way.
00:16:17.000They're willing to bide their time and hang on to the structure that they have right now.
00:16:21.760And at least if you really want to go to war, do it on November 2027.
00:16:26.460And you've got four years to hash it out.0.53
00:16:27.900But right now is not a brilliant time to go to war.
00:16:30.340Interestingly, she's scheduled a UCP town hall for Saturday morning for all members.
00:16:36.180So it'll be interesting to see what she says on that.
00:19:42.540You don't want to drive a car that's put together
00:19:45.180by people who are chosen as engineers for any other reason
00:19:49.160that they know their job better than anybody else.0.96
00:19:53.320I mean, it's a ridiculous wave to run a country,0.93
00:19:55.800and it will collapse on its own eventually.
00:19:58.940It's just that you don't want it to collapse
00:20:01.220because of the catastrophes that fall out of it.
00:20:05.000uh cory i mean cory there's i mean among people on the right side of things it's virtually
00:20:12.740unanimously agreed that this kind of thing is insane it's destructive uh in fact it probably
00:20:19.200provokes you know if you're going to do identity politics on the other side it inevitably provokes
00:20:26.040a reaction of identity politics on the other side which which they tend to find very scary0.99
00:20:31.780um yeah everyone agrees this is stupid you know except for people who are kind of way on the0.99
00:20:37.660other side here but the timing of this it it does you know let's not be naive enough to think that1.00
00:20:44.780the timing you know that politics never comes into things that you try to marry good policy
00:20:49.660with good politics you know before the last ucp agm um where i think there was a leadership review
00:20:58.380Smith brought forward the new transgender policy on, you know, men and boys playing in girls and women's sports and things.
00:21:06.600You know, it's kind of identity politics, but very popular with people on the right side of things and generally popular with the public at large.
00:21:13.920That probably did not hurt her support with the members before the last convention.
00:21:19.560The DEI thing similarly is kind of this anti-identity politics of the right.
00:21:25.480probably going to be very popular with people do you see this as you know we all agree it's it's
00:21:32.040good policy but it's very delayed i like this should have been kind of a day one thing i think
00:21:38.140it was literally one of the first executive orders in the first 10 minutes of donald trump
00:21:41.380in office was getting rid of dei the timing of it does seem a bit odd that it's been delayed this
00:21:47.560long oh absolutely no this is a pure political play and a smart one when you've got an 80 20
00:21:52.920issue you can keep in your pocket for a time when you need it. Now is the time they needed it. They
00:21:57.620sat on this until they got to now, and they want to turn the page. The legislature on its first day
00:22:02.360was nothing but Nenshi still trying to accuse them all of being separatists. Now he's had this
00:22:06.760dropped unexpectedly on his lap, and he's floundering to try and oppose it, and he's having a hard time
00:22:10.920with it. They've managed to turn the page on him on an issue. Again, it's an 80-20 issue. Most people
00:22:16.340are like, this is, you know, a foolish policy. It never should have been there in the first place.0.99
00:22:20.300It was a trap. And if Nancy wants to continue with an issue that isn't before the legislature while they push this through, he looks ineffective.
00:22:28.580And if he tries to oppose this, he looks ineffective.
00:22:31.380And it also gives her room to, with the independent sector that's trying to make this the heart of the debate right now,
00:22:36.860she said, look, we're busy with more important stuff like this right now.
00:22:40.260We're going to move ahead with this. It was definitely politically constructed.
00:22:44.860We understand the merit of it, but the timing of it and the way it was dropped.
00:22:47.880I mean, the legislative schedule was mostly dropped already, and then suddenly one day in, oh, by the way, we're going to do these justice bills.
00:22:54.720And the other half of that bill, too, was another one that is going to be very hard for people to oppose.
00:22:59.040So, no, it was a political decision, and, you know, I guess if you look at it from a political watcher, it was excellently played.
00:23:06.360If you look at it from the cynical, hey, if you knew this was an issue, you should have done it your first day in power, well, there's some truth to that, too.
00:23:11.440Well, there is, but then she did a lot on the first year in power.
00:23:14.720I mean, they came out with the very first thing was the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and confronting Ottawa on some of its encroachments, it took up a lot of oxygen.
00:23:26.840It's not that they couldn't have done this, but you had no need to do it at that particular point.
00:23:32.080We're four years into Smith, I mean, three years into her term here, but she's been premier for about four years.
00:23:39.520So there's kind of been time. It's one piece of legislation, but I take your point, Nigel.
00:23:44.280uh well let's talk about more timing though what one that i think is not good political timing uh0.95
00:23:51.860so you know i i've been critical of danielle smith putting all these other questions on the0.78
00:23:57.780referendum ballot at the same time uh she put four constitutional amendments on there i thought that0.88
00:24:04.100was silly that you have a separate referendum for constitutional amendments you vote on that
00:24:08.320six months or a year before you vote on something like independence instead we put she put these
00:24:12.740things on the ballot at the same time. I always warned that that one actually provides an off
00:24:18.940ramp for people who are open to independence, but they would see this as an off ramp for a lesser
00:24:23.020option. But at the same time, it would likely drive up opposition to these things, even though
00:24:29.540these things I think are actually extremely popular, things like reforming or abolishing
00:24:34.400the Senate, more power to provincial governments vis-a-vis Ottawa, that kind of thing. These are
00:24:39.800long-standing popular things in Alberta. My concern was that by putting them on the ballot
00:24:44.420at the same time as independents, hardcore federalists, and particularly hardcore federalists
00:24:49.540on the left, would vote the straight ticket pro-Ottawa, or as they would see it, pro-Canada,
00:24:54.420which means against even reforming the Constitution. And as a result, every single one
00:24:59.000of the constitutional amendments proposed failed once all the mail-in ballots were finally counted
00:25:07.260here. I have a hard time believing for one second that most Albertans think that Alberta should have
00:25:14.420half as many senators as New Brunswick and have no say whatsoever in appointing them. I'd chance
00:25:20.720to say I've never met a single Albertan who would actually agree with that, but that's technically
00:25:24.240how Albertans voted. So Smith was defeated on the constitutional amendment side, and I think that is
00:25:28.940significantly weakened Alberta's position in agitating for reform of the Federation. Where
00:25:35.040she did win uh at least was on the five immigration related questions voter id uh allowing alberta
00:25:44.160have more say over immigration allowing us to charge premiums for temporary foreign workers
00:25:49.040to actually pay for the public services that they're using while they're visiting
00:25:52.640their while their guest workers in alberta a majority of albertans voted for that but
00:25:58.280uh they announced as they as the legislature was coming back that there's not going to be
00:26:04.500any legislation on this yet. They're going to slow walk it, that they're not immediately going
00:26:09.560to be introducing this stuff. It strikes me, Dave, as bizarre that they did not have bills already
00:26:15.960written for this stuff. This stuff shouldn't have even been a referendum. They should have just done
00:26:19.700it over a year ago. And if the left doesn't like it, they could have gone and got the signatures
00:26:25.040to have force a referendum to repeal it. But instead, she put it on the ballot. It strikes me
00:26:30.020as bizarre that there's no legislation written for this yet. There's no plan for implementing
00:26:33.800these things yet, other than voter ID. I think they do actually have, they're going forward on
00:26:39.580that front. It strikes me as very strange that they're not moving forward on these things right
00:26:44.540now that are, one, approved in a referendum, two, are broadly popular with Albertans, and three,
00:26:51.700is desperately needed. I think she's taking the Prime Minister at his word. You know, she was,
00:27:00.060ended up getting a pipeline in the Major Projects office.
00:27:04.940And I think she's trusting Carney again with immigration.
00:27:09.300The day after the referendum, Carney said he's willing to work with Alberta
00:27:14.140and he was willing to work with any provinces who have complained.