Western Standard - Is the UCP rigging the review？

00:00:00.000 Hi, Danielle. Hey, Corey. We're going to share our collective trauma over mail-in ballots from

00:00:05.620 2009. I can hardly wait to talk it through with you. I mean, that experience single-handedly

00:00:12.240 made me opposed to mail-in ballots. And so I was a bit surprised to see the party,

00:00:18.280 the UCP party embracing them because my goodness, do you ever end up with a lot of problems there?

00:00:23.960 Yeah. And I'll give a quick background on that. So this is going all the way back to when Danielle

00:00:27.820 won the leadership of the Wildrose party. At that time, I think I was VP policy with the party on

00:00:33.080 the executive. And my wife, Jane, was the executive director. And we had, I think, about 11,000 members

00:00:39.140 perhaps. I can't remember who were eligible. So we did a mail-in balloting system and 8,000 of those

00:00:44.760 voted. And the amount of work, and we had months to get ready for this. And still, the logistics of

00:00:51.120 getting that many ballots out, uniquely numbered, ensuring that there wasn't fraud, getting them

00:00:56.320 all back, getting them counted. It was a nightmare. And a lot of people raised a lot of questions about

00:01:02.260 the whole thing. It was on the up and up, but boy, what a mess. And that's a fraction of what

00:01:06.820 the UCP is looking to pull off right now. You're totally right. And I'll just elaborate on that a

00:01:11.620 little bit. And you can probably tell me from your perspective what you remember. But one of the things

00:01:15.880 that I remember being a real problem is that a lot of, especially rural addresses, your actual

00:01:23.000 physical address is different than your mailing address. Most folks in rural have a PO box within

00:01:29.540 one of the towns or close by in the city. And so you can end up with a problem of getting the ballot

00:01:36.800 out to a person who wants to vote. That's number one. The second part of the problem is getting that

00:01:43.680 turnaround. And so you get the ballot, then you have to turn around and put it in the mail

00:01:47.720 and hope that it actually gets there. And we'll talk about that in a minute. But the third one is

00:01:54.040 that if you don't receive it in time, how do you make sure that you get it returned in time? And I

00:01:59.320 recall a couple of my supporters, because we allowed for there to be a single ballot box in Edmonton

00:02:05.700 because we wanted members to be there to either vote on site or have their ballot sent in. So I

00:02:10.500 remember I had supporters who were driving around picking up ballots so they could drive them up to

00:02:15.020 Edmonton to get there in time. And then finally, you'll recall this, too, when we talk about the

00:02:20.640 PTSD afterwards, there's always a trickle that come in after the voting date because they get lost in

00:02:27.520 the mail. They turn up all crumpled because clearly they got shoved in behind some storage center in a

00:02:33.820 mail room. And then you're constantly worried that is the follow up ballots coming in? Are they going to

00:02:40.300 change the outcome? And you always have people questioning, did my vote get counted? And so

00:02:45.460 people feel disenfranchised. The other candidates who are in the race feel like they're suspicious or

00:02:52.600 they raise suspicions about the outcome and whether you can trust it. It seems to me like all of those

00:02:57.920 experiences, that just affirmed for me that the only way that you can have integrity in a voting

00:03:04.040 process that is fair to the candidates, that's fair to the members that make that everyone feels like

00:03:09.700 it's on the up and up is for it to be in person. And that that that to me is it should have been the

00:03:16.600 conclusion when they when they started seeing all the SDM registrations, the special general meeting

00:03:21.600 registrations, they have well over a million dollars, you can very easily decide that you're going to have

00:03:28.240 in person ballot stations, if maybe not at every all 87 constituencies. But at all of them, the major

00:03:34.880 centers, you could have one in Fort McMurray, Grand Prairie, Edmonton, Red Deer, Calgary, Lethbridge

00:03:41.040 Medicine Hat, probably need one in Lloydminster as well. I just was in Lloydminster. It's about a six hour

00:03:45.600 round trip to get to where I live. So you could put a polling station in the major centers, you have the

00:03:52.000 money to be able to man it and rent the room. And then you can do an in person ballot. And that would and

00:03:57.520 that would address the issue of the number of people who who need to be accommodated. But I just

00:04:03.360 cannot I'm trying to wrap my head around how they're going to get the the ballots printed, mailed out

00:04:12.480 and turned around by May 18, I think is the date that they're talking about having not had the

00:04:18.240 experience of doing this before. Like maybe they'll need to second Jane and you to give them some advice,

00:04:22.960 Corey, because you guys went through it. I don't know what the problems are.

00:04:26.640 Well, it's at all. So I don't think they want to hear from us. I mean, we did see that I mean,

00:04:34.400 everything has backfired on them. They truly underestimated how many people were going to

00:04:38.080 sign up. They thought if we're going to make it $100 a crack and make everybody come out in person,

00:04:42.000 we'll have maybe a couple thousand participants and we can really control that. And we can see that

00:04:46.800 absolutely it was going to be a catastrophe if they tried to get 15,000 people to vote in Red Deer at a

00:04:51.760 hotel over a six hour period. So they had to do something. But now to defer it, I mean,

00:04:57.040 the other part in deferring it to me, he keeps kicking that can down the road. And I'm sure what

00:05:01.040 they're going to say is, well, this is too late now to change leaders because we got an election

00:05:04.640 less than a year from now. We, you know, we need to go into a leadership race and bring somebody else

00:05:08.800 in. Like we're seeing a lot of ugly political play. And I really think the party is losing a lot

00:05:13.520 of credibility right now. Well, and that's the real problem is that if you want to go through,

00:05:18.560 if the whole purpose of this is to have the members cast a say on whether they want,

00:05:24.640 whether they, this, the actual question on a leadership review ballot is, do you approve of

00:05:30.400 the current leader? Yes or no. And the reason why you do that is you want to have a lot of enthusiasm

00:05:36.080 and support demonstrated for your current leader, because that then helps to build the momentum,

00:05:40.240 especially if you're going into an election year. If, if there's nothing but concern and, and it's

00:05:45.440 fraught and there's worry and there's people casting doubt on whether the outcome is, what,

00:05:49.680 what, what, what they, what they announced, then that's going to have the exact opposite effect.

00:05:53.920 It's going to backfire. And so there is a, a potential of losing the war after you've won the

00:06:00.320 battle. And I think that that's the, the, the concern that the party should have is that sure,

00:06:04.800 I suppose you could end up doing whatever it is you want to get, get the outcome, but the integrity of

00:06:10.240 the process is important to get the buy-in. The whole reason you want to do this is because

00:06:15.840 election planning for a political party has to begin very shortly after this. The, the premier

00:06:20.720 has set March, May of 2023 as the fixed election date. We used to have a fixed election window a few

00:06:26.880 weeks ago. He announced that it was going to be a fixed election date in, in May. So everybody knows

00:06:32.000 what date they're working towards. But if you end up with a party questioning the outcome, feeling like they

00:06:38.480 haven't had a proper say, feeling like they can't trust the executive, that's not going to bring

00:06:42.080 people together to elect their candidates, to start volunteering, to do the door knocking,

00:06:46.800 to make the phone calls. And that's the army that you need. If you're going to go into an election

00:06:51.840 united, that's my, my greatest fear is that if you don't handle this process badly, you can create

00:06:57.600 a bunch of unnecessary bad feelings. So you're, you're better off just trying to find a process that

00:07:03.040 everybody feels has integrity. And then you accept the result. If the, the premier gets a resounding

00:07:08.720 yes, then that is accepted. Everybody can come together and move on. If it's a resounding no,

00:07:13.200 then there's a, a leadership race that other people can jump into, but to create this uncertainty,

00:07:20.000 I think they're going to get the worst of all worlds out of it. Well, yeah. And unfortunately,

00:07:24.320 I mean, uh, premier Kenny was asked about it. What level would be, you know, where he would feel

00:07:27.760 comfortable staying in. I mean, in a leadership review, usually it's kind of open and shut. There'd be 80%,

00:07:32.400 90%. He said 50% plus one would be enough, but you know, if it comes in at 60%, I fear that party

00:07:38.880 is going to rip itself to shreds. We already have members of the legislature. Jason Stephan came out

00:07:42.880 today and has outright demanded Kenny's resignation. A number of them are getting more and more bold and

00:07:47.440 showing their discontent. And I don't think they're going to feel settled after a race, unless it was an 1.00

00:07:52.560 incredible blowout of support for the premier. Well, and the premier could have the confidence that

00:07:57.840 even in a race that he would be able to win it. I mean, he's a formidable campaigner,

00:08:02.720 and his, his record hasn't been all bad. When you look at the, at the economy and the amount of

00:08:07.760 investment coming into the province, this is all very positive. I think where he got into trouble,

00:08:12.480 obviously was the back and forth on his COVID policy saying, we're definitely not going to

00:08:18.480 have vaccine passports and then turning around and having vaccine mandates, as well as this

00:08:23.200 restriction exemption program that alienated a lot of people. But I think he was facing trouble before that,

00:08:29.280 because the, because of the Alberta agenda, a series of events that took place around the province,

00:08:36.800 Drew Barnes, obviously was one of the most vocal voices there. And there was a pretty strong mandate

00:08:41.440 to start moving and getting tougher with Ottawa. There's a very strong mandate from the people on

00:08:46.560 the equalization referendum as well, to start the process of ending equalization in the constitution.

00:08:51.760 And I think the fact that he has not challenged Ottawa and not stepped forward on those, that's a

00:08:56.160 bigger problem for him. But you know what, he could have said, you know, the, the amount of

00:09:02.160 outpouring of, of, of membership support, shouldn't maybe put it that way, membership purchases,

00:09:09.120 and the amount, number of people who want to participate in that process, that shows me that

00:09:13.840 there's a question that people want answered. Therefore, we're going to go automatically into

00:09:18.560 a leadership review, or leadership vote, I'm going to be on the ballot, I'll take any comers, I'm going

00:09:23.840 to stand up for my record, and I'm going to win, he could very easily do that. I think that would

00:09:28.400 actually be a bit more reflective of what it is that members want to see, they want to have a robust

00:09:34.480 race, he still has a, certainly a large share of support from his existing members, is it enough

00:09:41.440 to defeat Rachel Notley in the next election? That's the question. That's why anybody, that's

00:09:45.520 why everybody's having that discussion. And if you keep on pushing things down the road,

00:09:51.040 and you don't get started on what's what looks to me, almost an inevitability that there should be

00:09:59.280 some kind of leadership contest, then do you really want to go into the election saying,

00:10:03.760 well, we got to stay with who we've got, because we've now run out of time to have that question.

00:10:08.400 Now you've alienated riding presidents who've been asking for this

00:10:11.280 early, you put questions into the judgment of the of the executive committee of the party,

00:10:17.120 and people are going to be questioning whether or not they have the interest of members at heart,

00:10:21.200 it's a really messy situation for everyone. And so I think the premier really could resolve all of this.

00:10:27.120 He obviously has a kick in his step again, he's feeling very upbeat, he's very feeling very happy

00:10:33.680 about the turnaround. And he may well be able to make the argument that he should, he does deserve to

00:10:40.720 have another mandate to go into the next election. But you're not going to have Brian Jean just decide

00:10:46.240 to stand down, he has to deal with the reality that Brian Jean wants to have another chance to

00:10:53.360 take another stab at this. And so if that doesn't get accommodated somehow, now you're looking at once

00:10:58.560 again, seeing the party split apart, the movement split apart. And if you end up with a with two

00:11:03.680 parties, you end up with a Brian Jean, who also has proven electoral success, he won 21 seats in 2015,

00:11:11.200 up against Jason Kenney. Now you've split the vote at least two ways, you've got Paul Hinman as well,

00:11:16.880 who's polling at least with 10 to 15% of the support for his Wild Rose Party, Wild Rose Independence Party.

00:11:23.840 When you start seeing that amount of vote divide, because this is an unanswered question, and people

00:11:29.760 see the process to be unfair, I don't know how you can keep all of that together as a cohesive movement

00:11:36.000 to be able to defeat Rachel Notley in 2023. So I think the ball's now really in the Premier's court

00:11:42.960 to try to suggest a different pathway forward. And my suggestion would be that he should just say,

00:11:49.360 look, I've heard this is, this is what people want, they want my, my leadership to be contested. And

00:11:56.240 I'm quite happy to, to enter into a race, because I think I'm the best candidate. I don't know why he

00:12:00.720 doesn't do that. And then it would just, just affirm his leadership so that he has the strength going

00:12:04.960 into the next election, or if he's wrong, then people will have an opportunity to put that forward,

00:12:09.920 too. Yeah, that would be a way to go, because he seems to be quite backed into a corner. I mean,

00:12:14.320 a lot of speculation was moving to this system of delegated leadership was to favour the Premier,

00:12:21.760 and it turns out, obviously, clearly, they didn't feel comfortable feeling it was going to favour

00:12:25.760 him as well. So they've moved to mail-in, even though they said recently that that was a terrible

00:12:29.200 way to go. But that's no guarantee that he's going to do well out of this either, then. I mean,

00:12:34.640 the same number of people are going to be, you know, discontent, potentially. So this may end really

00:12:40.320 poorly. But I almost fear the worst outcome would be a slim win for the for Premier Kenney.

00:12:45.200 I think you're right. Because here's the here's the unfortunate part of it is that you you already

00:12:50.160 have people questioning it. Well, is March 19th going to be the real cutoff? Or are they are they

00:12:56.640 still selling memberships and not telling anyone when you have people talking that way and creating

00:13:01.600 that kind of distrust in the process? It's really, really hard to come back from that. There is also

00:13:07.680 another concern. And I don't know the answer to this. But I heard Zane Novak on Rob Breckenridge's

00:13:14.720 show yesterday, and he was saying, What if they allow for membership sales after April the 1st?

00:13:21.440 Because that's when the new legislation comes through that allows for people to buy 400 memberships

00:13:27.600 without the knowledge of an individual. So you could have an organization sign up 400 of their members

00:13:33.520 and presumably order mail in ballots and vote on their behalf. That's what another that's sort of

00:13:38.560 the other rumor mill that's that's out there is is there going to be some some kind of shenanigans

00:13:43.680 around the ordering and signing up of members without their knowledge? We also saw the CBC report

00:13:49.440 yesterday that shows that you've got a testimony that that that Premier Kenney was involved in the

00:13:56.960 discussion of running Jeff Calloway as a so called kamikaze candidate for the sole purpose of of

00:14:02.880 ruining Brian Jean's chances. So all of this is swirling about and the best way to to sweep away

00:14:09.760 some of these kinds of concerns is to have an open, fair, robust process. Make sure that you bring in the

00:14:16.320 auditors so that there is integrity to the process that no one can question the outcome have in person

00:14:21.920 votes so people put their paper ballot into a box with their own eyes and their own hands and

00:14:26.720 feel confident that it's going to be counted that that to me at this stage with all of the pushback

00:14:33.200 anxiety rumors distrust if this is supposed to be about bringing a party together they've got to

00:14:39.120 take a different approach. Absolutely well it's it's it's going to be something to watch with interest

00:14:44.240 i've never been more happy not to have a party membership any longer than i have been this last

00:14:48.800 couple of months i'm glad i'm not on their executive trying to figure out how they're going to deal with

00:14:52.560 this uh as you said we've been through it on a smaller scale before and that's challenging enough.

00:14:57.360 No kidding because i think this one as i understand it this is what the difference is is it's not just

00:15:01.920 the people who signed out for that 99 special general meeting registration now i think it's all

00:15:07.600 members so last i heard there was some suggestion that it would be 43 000 votes and so wow like just wrap

00:15:16.640 your head around that for a minute about all of the the printing and the labeling and putting it in the mail

00:15:21.680 and having it turned around 43 and then the counting when it comes back in all through the course of

00:15:26.320 the the six weeks to follow boy it's i don't know if they realize what they what they've signed

00:15:30.880 themselves up for with the mail-in ballot it's it's not it's not an easy process to do especially for a

00:15:36.640 party that often operates on a bit of a skeleton crew so i think we're all watching it with interest

00:15:42.320 and and seeing whether they're they're going to shift gears there there's a lot of pushback i gather

00:15:47.920 there's some mlas as well as some riding presidents who are uh holding a a press conference this

00:15:54.480 afternoon i don't know if they're going to be asking for a change in process or if they're going

00:15:59.120 to be asking for for some for the same thing that uh that jason stefan is but there's just no point

00:16:04.800 in creating this kind of angst on something that is supposed to be a united a uniting effort for a

00:16:10.400 political party that's the thing that we forget is that political parties are supposed to be

00:16:16.560 in during at this stage trying to come together around the leader so that they can choose their

00:16:22.320 candidates and the team that's going to get them into the next election having this unsettled issue

00:16:27.440 just gives his opponents in the in the ndp party the advantage they're totally unified around their

00:16:34.400 leader in fact i don't even know if i've ever heard of a leadership challenge to rachel notley even

00:16:38.880 though she went from being premier to being opposition leader again they are steadily going along

00:16:44.320 and lining up their candidates some high profile ones like drew farrell in calgary as well so um

00:16:50.880 the the the more the longer this remains unsettled and the more infighting that there is it just ends

00:16:56.640 up impairing the party's ability to get ready for for may of 2023 and that's what they need to get

00:17:02.160 resolved they need to get the leadership issue behind them quickly and then they need to move on

00:17:06.960 to to doing the the uh the candidate selection so that they're ready for what happens a year from

00:17:12.000 now otherwise that that's going to be a bigger problem for everyone yeah the only one smiling

00:17:16.320 right now from ear to ear has got to be rachel notley at this point i mean you know just kick back 0.98

00:17:20.320 and let them deal with themselves and then she can uh you know show stability uh you know to voters 1.00

00:17:26.240 versus a a party racked with infighting well can i just say one more thing on that corey it's so funny

00:17:31.520 because i remember when i was sitting in the legislature with uh rob anderson and and uh and heather

00:17:37.040 supports i think and and the others when we saw that uh allison redford was really on the ropes it

00:17:43.840 was oh no we want to actually face her in the next election we better cool it point of fact it was

00:17:50.960 already too late for her and and we ended up facing a more formidable challenger in in jim prentis and we 0.95

00:17:57.120 all know how that one ended up but that's got to be what's happening with rachel notley as well as

00:18:01.360 she's probably because she hasn't said too much when you think about it she's probably in that frame of

00:18:06.720 mind that when she looks at who um she would rather be facing in the debates and who should be rather

00:18:12.800 facing in the election knowing that the premier's is is fighting off his own party she's probably

00:18:18.560 thinking this is the the perfect contender that she she probably wants to keep jason kenney there which 0.99

00:18:23.520 is why she's just biding her time well um well the infighting does her work so you're right talking

00:18:29.920 we're talking about grinning ear to ear this this does nothing but help her in her reelection bid 1.00

00:18:35.520 yeah well we'll be watching with morbid interest as the party tries to figure out what rules they're

00:18:40.960 going to release and they better get on it soon because now everybody's speculating which makes it

00:18:44.800 even worse and adds to the mistrust so thank you very much for for coming on to to join me today and

Western Standard - March 24, 2022

Is the UCP rigging the review？

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