Western Standard - Jan 13, 2021

00:00:00.000 Thank you.

00:00:30.000 Thank you.

00:01:00.000 Thank you.

00:01:30.000 Thank you.

00:02:00.000 Thank you.

00:02:30.000 Thank you.

00:03:00.000 G'day, I'm Derek Philibrandt, publisher of the Western Standard.

00:03:17.160 Today is January 13th, 2021.

00:03:21.520 We've got a really special episode for you today.

00:03:24.320 We're going to be discussing shocking new polls conducted for the Western Standard by

00:03:29.880 street research we're joined with a special guest today uh keto maggie coming to us from the center

00:03:35.560 of the universe toronto how you doing keto actually i'm in ottawa you're in ottawa i am

00:03:42.120 at least i like even more the center of the universe indeed uh we're also joined uh from

00:03:49.080 beautiful british columbia by western standard news editor dave naylor how you doing dave i'm

00:03:53.640 I'm good, Derek. Afternoon, gentlemen.

00:03:56.700 And joining me in the studio in our downtown Calgary offices today is Western Standard podcast editor and columnist extraordinaire, Corey Morgan.

00:04:07.540 Hey, Corey.

00:04:07.900 Good afternoon.

00:04:09.180 Even though, I don't know, it's kind of weird to greet each other when we've been in the office all day together.

00:04:12.400 So we've got some really, really interesting numbers.

00:04:17.540 But before we do, I just want to remind everyone, the Western Standard is funded by members like you.

00:04:23.240 If you support the Western Standard, please go to westernstandardonline.com, go to membership.

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00:04:33.260 We refuse to take any of the federal government's media bailout.

00:04:37.400 We're funded completely by advertisers and by members like you.

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00:04:45.160 And if you're not a member, but you like what we're doing, please consider becoming one today.

00:04:49.840 But let's dive right into it.

00:04:52.100 Kido, very appreciate you working with us on these polls.

00:04:57.020 There's some really fascinating stuff.

00:05:01.720 We've gone through quite a bit here.

00:05:03.860 I'll just kind of give an overview really quickly of the different topics we've polled on,

00:05:08.060 and then we're going to dive into each one.

00:05:11.560 You have polled on where people intend to vote in Alberta right now, a snapshot.

00:05:18.500 It's incredible numbers. UCP supports completely collapsed. We'll get into that. You've pulled on what Albertans think needs to happen in the wake of the great Snowbird scandal. What do people think Jason Kenney needs to resign? Does he need to fire the Snowbird MLAs? Has he done enough? Or did he do too much? We've got numbers on that.

00:05:38.500 We've got numbers on what Albertans think about the lockdown.

00:05:42.500 Numbers showing that a rising, growing minority of Albertans are opposed to the lockdown, some of them very much so.

00:05:50.500 We also did some new polling numbers on support in Alberta for an independent Alberta by itself,

00:05:58.500 and as well as support in Alberta for broader Western independence.

00:06:03.500 And we've got some very interesting numbers there.

00:06:06.500 But we're going to go straight to Quito now for some.

00:06:11.380 Actually, we're going to go to Dave first, just for an overview on the numbers.

00:06:14.900 Shocking new polling numbers on support for the different political parties in Alberta, Dave.

00:06:20.340 Dave, run us through the numbers.

00:06:25.300 Yeah, those numbers are, as Quito himself said, horrific for Jason Kenney and the ruling UCP.

00:06:32.700 If an election was held today, we'd be saying Premier Rachel Notley again.

00:06:37.800 Only 26% support for the UCP under Jason Keddie, compared to 41% of support for Albertans for the NDP.

00:06:49.440 Wild Rose Independence Party takes just 9% along with that.

00:06:54.860 This is a very, very recent poll, Derek, as you know.

00:06:58.440 Main Street was out in the field on January 6th to 7th.

00:07:02.700 So it was just last week, and it's just a total collapse of support for the UCP, and I think the quote from Quito was, it's absolutely terrible for Jason Kenney.

00:07:21.040 Quito, were the numbers as staggering to you as they were to me?

00:07:23.920 yeah i mean you know before i start i guess you know i've gotten in trouble for some of the stuff

00:07:30.820 in the past in terms of not making the the the correct caveats here remember that a poll is a

00:07:39.320 snapshot in time remember when we did this poll sort of right on top of this scandal um obviously

00:07:46.500 numbers change we've seen numbers change dramatically in in alberta before so but

00:07:52.520 Certainly at this time right now, and certainly from when we did this latest snapshot, I mean,

00:08:00.280 to put in context here, this is the highest, including just before the 2015 election,

00:08:07.480 the highest that the NDP has ever pulled. You were talking about all voters, 26.

00:08:14.280 uh you know when you look at decided and leaning vote it's 48 31 um yeah ucp doing uh um just a

00:08:24.360 little bit better than they did at the uh uh at the end of the 2015 election uh where i believe

00:08:32.520 they got around 27 percent uh but remember that was with uh a divided uh right um so this is

00:08:41.800 actually slightly better than the PCs did in 2015 but this is the highest the NDP has ever pulled so

00:08:48.040 uh you know that that is the shocking part to be quite honest is that um that the NDP is enjoying

00:08:54.520 that level of support higher than just before the 2018 uh the 2015 election I think the highest we

00:09:01.080 ever pulled them before was around 44 percent I've never seen any poll ours or others that has had

00:09:07.240 the MVP support this high before. Corey? Yeah, well, this is not even me. I mean,

00:09:15.320 we kind of expected, you know, you can see the backlash, you can see the discontent on left and

00:09:19.480 right. Kenny and the UCP just can't seem to grab traction no matter what they try to do.

00:09:25.400 But still, this was shocking. And the caucus is rattled. I talked to a member off the record and

00:09:33.400 And, you know, internals, I'm sure, are probably saying the same thing.

00:09:37.020 And Kenny has really got to fear internal discord at this time, because if there's anything that motivates an MLA, it's if they think their own job's on the line.

00:09:48.060 And then party loyalty or loyalty to a particular leader suddenly doesn't seem to be the top priority.

00:09:52.800 Not saying every member is considering these things, but when they start looking at numbers and thinking, boy, I'm going to be unemployed in two years, they start reconsidering where they're going.

00:10:00.480 And with an up-and-coming party coming up on the right flank, particularly in rural areas, I think we might see some very interesting things happening in the near future here.

00:10:09.940 Comment from Sandy McLennan. Sandy, I think you're confusing federal and provincial.

00:10:16.500 The Liberals provincially, I think, are 2% in this poll.

00:10:20.540 Justin Trudeau is a federal politician.

00:10:22.200 So any divide between Kenny's UCP and the Wild Rose Independence Party has very little to do with Justin Trudeau.

00:10:29.760 uh they're entirely different levels of government uh so i just think a little bit of uh a little bit

00:10:36.080 of uh confusion between the levels of government there uh keto what do you think is obviously

00:10:42.000 there's much at play here and this poll was taken uh fresh off the heels uh of the of the great

00:10:48.640 snowbird scandal but uh what do you think are the primary factors uh driving the collapse in support

00:10:57.120 both to the NDP and to the Wild Rose Independence Party? What are the issues and factors that are

00:11:03.360 driving that exodus of supporters at this time? Yeah, I mean, you know, it's sort of an impossible

00:11:12.560 step between a rock and a hard place for Jason Kenney right now, in terms of what are the two

00:11:18.400 main driving factors behind these numbers, being both, you know, what's going on with the pandemic

00:11:24.480 and the lockdowns and this current scandal, it's very difficult to navigate. And then when we

00:11:36.240 throw on top of that the issue of Alberta or Western independence, again, it's very difficult

00:11:44.400 to see how Jason Kenney and the UCP navigate this ahead of the next election. I mean, sure,

00:11:51.760 this anger over this particular scandal will dissipate. I mean, the most interesting number

00:11:56.000 to me was when we look at, because we did also ask how people intended to vote federally,

00:12:02.720 how they voted in the last federal election, how they voted in the last provincial election.

00:12:07.200 When I look at that breakout for the past provincial vote, and it says the 21% of UCP

00:12:14.640 vote says that Jason Kenney should resign and the six MLA should all resign as a result of

00:12:22.000 that's bringing us into our next poll here I guess we can transition now so when we come back

00:12:30.520 to you in a second Quito Dave can run us through these numbers here what do Albertans think needs

00:12:37.840 to happen in the wake of the snowbird scandal what do they want to see happen for accountability

00:12:42.020 And then we'll come back to you, Kido.

00:12:45.700 I didn't mean to interrupt you, but I guess we want to introduce these numbers first before we dive into them.

00:12:50.540 Dave, why don't you take it away?

00:12:55.340 Dave, you are muted.

00:12:57.940 Dave is muted again.

00:13:00.480 Sorry about that, guys.

00:13:02.020 The Snowbird scandal seems to have hit the UCP party hard, and particularly Jason Kenney.

00:13:08.420 And kind of a stunning number to me that 41% of the people that were polled by Quito's staff says that Kenny should resign himself.

00:13:19.520 41% of all Alberta voters said that, and they want the six backbenchers out too.

00:13:26.660 So the six snowboard MLAs who flew to Arizona and Vegas and Hawaii.

00:13:32.500 And that figure includes 21% of the people that voted for UCP in the last election.

00:13:40.340 27% of people said Kenny's actions to date don't go far enough.

00:13:45.700 All he's done, he's fired his chief of staff and he's reduced Tracy Allard from Minister of Municipal Affairs back to just being regular old Grand Prairie MLA.

00:13:57.220 That's a hit that's going to cost her $60,000 in salary.

00:14:01.380 his chief of staff Jamie Huckabee he was on a quarter million dollars a year so those are the

00:14:08.140 only two that are going to take a big financial hit because of it all the other MLAs were demoted

00:14:14.640 from their cabinet responsibilities in terms of legislature committees that I'm sure nobody cares

00:14:21.940 about not even them so most of our most of the people you talk to keto not happy with Kenny and

00:14:30.340 not happy with the actions that he's taken so far yeah correct and you know going back to what i was

00:14:36.180 saying earlier you can you can actually measure the extent of the damage from this particular

00:14:42.580 scandal on its own by looking at that breakout number of them the number of people who said they

00:14:48.580 would vote ucp in the book sorry who indicated to us uh self-disclosed that they voted ucp in the

00:14:56.100 last election in 2019 election and how they would vote today just six percent of those people said

00:15:04.260 that Jason Kenney and the six MLA should resign I mean that's a 15 point gap there's your damage

00:15:10.980 does it mean he should resign does it mean he will in fact it probably would be worse if he did

00:15:16.100 no but this number tells us the the exact damage that this particular scandal has had

00:15:23.300 on on the ucp and and on jason kenny's popularity it's it's uh it's astonishing haven't seen

00:15:29.540 something like this since i would say you know gomri days for on on paul martin's uh vote intentions

00:15:37.220 and approval numbers um yeah the way the high level numbers are what get people to read an

00:15:46.180 article but it's it's the cross tabulations it's the digging into the data that's really interesting

00:15:50.660 and I think you're capturing it here, Keto. You said it's 20 or 21% of people who voted UCP in

00:15:57.700 the last election say that Jason Kenney should resign, which is the most nuclear option that we

00:16:02.820 had in this poll. But then still, I think 30-odd said that Kenney needs to fire the minister and

00:16:11.860 the other six Snowbird MLAs from the UCP caucus, something that's significantly more harsh than

00:16:19.780 kenny has done to date so that that would be a majority of people who voted ucp in the last

00:16:25.540 election who are saying um that he should do more that he should do a lot more uh ranging from uh

00:16:33.860 resign to fire seven mlas from the caucus and i've never heard of seven mlas being fired

00:16:38.900 collectively that would be that would be a red wedding of a political night um uh keto uh as you

00:16:45.460 said we can actually measure quite significantly how much this is bitten out of them because so

00:16:49.460 and any of them came from people who say they voted UCP in the last election.

00:16:54.020 Is there really a way out of this for Kenny?

00:16:57.280 Obviously, he won't resign.

00:16:58.980 I think I got a bridge to sell you if you think he will.

00:17:02.020 But is there really a way out of this other than just keep his head down and hope people forget about it?

00:17:08.960 Yeah, I mean, I think time, you know, I always use the example, not just in when polling Alberta,

00:17:16.180 but I always use the example nationally about what we saw leading up to the 2015 election in Alberta.

00:17:24.540 60 days before the election was called, you know, at the time Jim Prentice and the PCs were polling

00:17:31.240 in the mid-50s with the Wildrose in the low 20s and the NDP a distant third, not even,

00:17:40.060 And then to see what happened on election day, to see that shift in numbers, you know, 30-point shift for the PCs downward, more than 15 points upwards for the wild rows.

00:17:59.100 and like the reverse of the PCs for the NDP at that time going from mid-teens up to what they

00:18:08.180 got on election day, 41%. You know, we had them polling as high as 44, about three or four days

00:18:13.480 out, and then they came back down to 41%. You know, of course, there's always a way out. It's

00:18:18.760 two years to the election uh this anger will dissipate um you know and you know but it's

00:18:29.960 as you said a majority of his own base uh is hoping that the premier does something else

00:18:35.640 so there should be more consequences i you know i i certainly don't envy him his position on having

00:18:42.920 to navigate this for the next couple of months and then even leading up until the next election when

00:18:48.120 we look at some of the other numbers around how the pandemic and lockdowns is handling

00:18:55.560 of the pandemic and lockdowns and some of the sentiment around Western alienation and

00:19:02.200 independence for Alberta or Western Canada, all of these things point to a very difficult

00:19:09.160 political navigation for the premier between now and the next election.

00:19:13.720 Okay. Corey, obviously, you've been watching this as it happens. You've written some columns on it.

00:19:23.880 This has clearly infuriated people on both sides. The scandal on the left seems to have died as

00:19:28.700 soon as this caught up Nahid Nenshi. You've written on that. But you're a guy who's pretty

00:19:35.780 in touch with kind of the conservative UCP base. Do you think this is going to have a significant

00:19:41.800 lasting repercussion or is this going to be more or less forgotten in two years when people go to

00:19:45.860 vote? No, it's going to be lasting because it's a matter of trust. Even if people forget the issue

00:19:50.780 specifically, they've got a feeling of mistrust, you know, that there's nothing hurts more than

00:19:56.200 hypocrisy. And that's what this was. I mean, we're all suffering. The whole world is suffering

00:20:00.260 under this pandemic. We're doing sacrifices. We're staying in. And then we got that feeling

00:20:05.440 that those who are telling us to stay in aren't doing the same thing. This is a horrific

00:20:11.540 demonstration to people and i mean it's not to say it's impossible to gain that trust back but

00:20:16.260 it's going to take work like just leaving it alone is not going to recover what was lost he's got to

00:20:20.980 reach out and somehow get those people back and i'm not sure how he's going to do it all right

00:20:26.580 well uh we're going to move on to the next one here uh that is very closely related to it uh

00:20:33.940 We've got more polling from Quito and Main Street here on what Albertans are thinking

00:20:40.680 of the lockdown.

00:20:41.680 Now, before any of you say fake news, fake news, remember, almost everyone I know is

00:20:46.940 against the lockdown, but we tend to self-segment.

00:20:50.200 We hang out with people who think like us, people around us shape what we think.

00:20:55.300 I really don't know very many people who think that we should continue to be locked down,

00:20:59.000 but I don't doubt that I'm in my own bubble.

00:21:01.920 We're all in bubbles right now.

00:21:03.500 illegal to go do anything if you go try to talk to somebody at a coffee shop you'll get arrested

00:21:07.900 so of course everyone you know if you if you support lockdown chances are everyone around

00:21:13.380 you also supports lockdowns if you're against lockdowns chances are everyone around you also

00:21:18.080 is against lockdowns so before anyone says fake news uh just know that we self-segment but uh we

00:21:24.760 do have new polling numbers on this uh on the second lockdown we asked people which statement

00:21:30.820 most agree they agree with uh dave why don't you uh run us through the numbers on the lockdown

00:21:37.380 poll before we kick it to keto for some insight yeah sure derek again some interesting numbers

00:21:44.820 here i'll just give you the overall numbers and uh and then uh sure keto can break them down

00:21:51.060 from there but 48 of people in the poll it's nearly half said that they're happy with the

00:21:57.140 lockdowns and that health officials should keep the lockdowns in place another nine percent

00:22:04.500 went even further and said that the lockdown should stay in place until the entire population

00:22:09.860 is vaccinated and you know god knows when uh when that'll be uh 27 so almost a third of the

00:22:18.100 people polled said the full lockdown should end immediately but they want some restrictions uh

00:22:23.620 left in place and 12 percent said all that the lockdown should be ended immediately no matter

00:22:29.860 what and when when keto and i were talking and this goes back to what you were saying derek

00:22:35.140 about we're all in our own little bubble uh i think he agreed with me that a lot of the anger

00:22:41.140 is on social social media driven and that's what you see you get the the vocal minority

00:22:47.860 who are against the lockdowns uh and that's all you see in your social media stream is that the

00:22:55.300 lockdown must be ended the lockdown must be ended and i think you know you uh you aptly put it right

00:23:00.500 when you called that segment of the population quote noisy unquote yeah exactly i mean you know

00:23:08.420 lots have been talked about sort of how social media and the decline of of a diversity of media

00:23:15.700 in general has created uh these echo chambers where essentially you go on a platform and all

00:23:23.220 you're seeing and remember the algorithms as well the algorithms learn uh what our own views and

00:23:31.140 attitudes are and it just feeds us that content and you know in polling we call it confirmation

00:23:36.660 bias it just reinforces our own views because that's all we see around us um you know it's

00:23:43.300 pretty dangerous um for society when when that happens when you have this polarization i mean

00:23:50.660 these views are definitely uh split in alberta here i you know sure you have sort of the two

00:23:56.740 extremes the people who want to lock down until everyone is vaccinated that's a small percentage

00:24:02.180 of population uh and the 12 that say end all lockdowns and all restrictions 100 immediately

00:24:09.460 and never bring them back I mean most reasonable people are somewhere in the middle there where

00:24:14.580 you know we we know that you know some restrictions have to exist perhaps even lockdowns to some

00:24:20.020 limited extent um and that's where the vast majority of those opinions exist the 27 percent

00:24:26.580 uh who want the lockdowns ended but with some restriction and the 40 uh 40 and change percent

00:24:33.540 that wants uh lockdowns extended until public health officials say it's safe i mean

00:24:40.660 you know and and i think that that's up to interpretation i think that's where the majority

00:24:46.420 of you know all of us want for our serving parents and our children uh to have that safety

00:24:55.860 um and make sure that we remain safe uh and and and our neighbors um it's just where you draw the

00:25:02.660 line on what is reasonable in terms of how we act so uh yeah i i thought it was interesting

00:25:10.660 uh keto uh we haven't pulled on this uh well we haven't asked anyone to pull on it previously

00:25:15.460 but i i do recall i've seen polling i'm not sure if it was from you or from others but i have seen

00:25:20.740 polling on support or opposition to lockdowns uh it may have been worded differently um but

00:25:26.500 how does this compare with you know these numbers uh it's still a majority in support of lockdowns

00:25:31.940 but let's see, 39% to one degree or another who believe the lockdown needs to end now.

00:25:39.680 The differences being how much restriction stays in place. 39%, you want to talk about how much

00:25:45.900 that has changed? We won't even compare to March when it was almost unanimity. For all we knew,

00:25:52.500 this was the bubonic plague and it was going to kill everybody. So there was almost unanimity

00:25:56.100 for lockdowns when this started even if we don't admit admit that but at the time people were

00:26:02.020 broadly supportive but uh maybe we if we can go back to uh somewhere you know beginning in the

00:26:09.300 earlier fall into the winter how have these numbers changed in terms of support or opposition

00:26:15.060 uh to lockdowns yeah we've asked this question you know not just in alberta but nationally and

00:26:22.500 in different provinces. I can't speak to others, but I have seen others. I think usually still has

00:26:32.100 a majority of people in other provinces that I've seen in Eastern Canada, certainly in Ontario and

00:26:40.980 Quebec that is in support of lockdowns. You know, and I mean, you know, ask Doug Ford what a lockdown

00:26:51.700 means uh you know it's there's still some uh freedoms of of mobility uh even here in ontario

00:27:00.260 under emergency stay-at-home orders um i think it's more uh you know sort of the word is scary

00:27:09.700 lockdown i think at the beginning as you said derek everyone it would have been 90 percent um

00:27:17.220 we've still seen it as the majority the last time we asked this question we asked this question three

00:27:21.380 or four times throughout the pandemic the last time being in November and even in Alberta there

00:27:26.660 was still a majority that were again this is back in November I think remember that all of these

00:27:33.780 factors are compounding we're in the winter it's it's the coldest month January we're going into

00:27:40.420 at least two more months of winter and and people are just they're fed up of being on

00:27:45.940 lockdown. But again, I think it's important for people to remember that this is just a word.

00:27:53.780 What it actually means means different things across the country and it means different things

00:27:59.300 in different regions as well. I mean, there are safer regions in Alberta and in different

00:28:06.020 parts of Canada as well. I mean, the most famous being the Atlantic bubble where we've had very,

00:28:12.020 very few cases people people have a lot more freedom uh to do what they want yeah uh well uh

00:28:20.420 cor i'm gonna come back to you actually maybe i will go to keto again right here before i put it

00:28:25.140 back to corey uh how again we're always interested in what's below the headline number here what are

00:28:31.620 the cross tabs uh why don't you tell us uh you know what what stands out to you about how this

00:28:36.740 breaks out along support for uh different political parties you know so what is the partisan cutting

00:28:43.460 lines here and some of the regional or demographic lines in terms of who is more likely to support

00:28:50.020 lockdowns and who is more likely to oppose lockdowns based on party region and demographics

00:28:56.980 yeah you know and and this is why i going back to what i said earlier in terms of how

00:29:01.380 jason kenney uh navigates this is really really

00:29:08.260 oh you know kind of shrug your shoulders like how do you how do you manage this because you know we

00:29:12.660 know a majority supports a lockdown to some extent or another uh until it's until public health

00:29:18.820 officials say it's safe that's an overall you know that's all 48 another nine percent until

00:29:24.260 everybody's vaccinated i think that one's unrealistic anyway but that'd be until next

00:29:28.340 September at best yeah and depending on the province and is it a hundred percent we're never

00:29:35.460 going to get to a hundred percent I think you know 60 70 percent is probably likely before the end of

00:29:42.260 the year um but but that's a majority remember that's 57 of the population and then but when

00:29:48.260 you look at whether it's the current UCP vote or past UCB vote um it's it's a majority of those

00:29:56.020 supporters who hold the absolute opposing view. So how do you navigate that as a political leader,

00:30:03.380 as the premier of a province? You know that this is what your best public health advisors are

00:30:10.580 telling you to do. You know that this is what the majority of the province wants you to do.

00:30:18.340 um but on the other hand your voting base opposes it it it's i can't it's a no-win situation for

00:30:26.420 jason kenney um at least right now it looks that way you know lots of things there are no events

00:30:34.740 i don't want to disagree with corey on it you know on this uh but we don't know what the future

00:30:41.540 brings we don't know what events will transpire in 2022 that might completely reverse the political

00:30:47.220 landscape in Alberta. It's, you know, they say a week is an eternity in politics. So two years is

00:30:56.180 like a long, long time. We don't know what's going to happen. Indeed. So I want to follow

00:31:02.660 right off of that, Corey. I think the summary of this poll, I think, can be summed up as

00:31:07.700 a shrinking majority of Albertans still support lockdowns, but the opposition to it is growing

00:31:15.320 fast. It's now a very sizable minority. But as Quito said, the people who Kenny needs to actually

00:31:22.820 vote for him are the people who oppose lockdowns. How do you think this is going to play out

00:31:29.240 politically? Is Kenny going to earn any support from the people who want lockdowns? Or does he

00:31:39.180 risk losing the support from people who are opposed to them? How does he thread the needle

00:31:42.780 when a majority of his voters are opposed to them,

00:31:47.320 but a significant minority of UCP voters still support lockdowns.

00:31:51.280 How do you think he threads this?

00:31:52.700 Yeah, if I had a direct answer, I'd probably have a great job in his office right now.

00:31:57.000 Pays a quarter million a year.

00:31:58.060 Yeah, he's walking a razor's edge, though.

00:32:01.300 And as you said, it's sort of, as Kido said, too, very no-win.

00:32:05.900 I mean, people sometimes wonder why conservative leaders will lean a little bit too much

00:32:10.340 towards, say, a socially conservative minority or things like that. Well, that's because the

00:32:15.180 conservative base is integral to the party. Those are your door knockers. Those are your donors.

00:32:19.140 These are the people that get you elected, even though they might not represent the majority who

00:32:23.760 are the voters who in the much bigger picture get you elected. He can't afford to alienate too many

00:32:29.720 of either side right now. But it seems a lot of his efforts in trying not to, he's just ticking

00:32:36.080 them off on both sides. So how he's going to find that balance, I honestly don't know, but he's

00:32:40.820 going to have to get on it. As Kido said too, things can change really fast in politics,

00:32:44.800 but he's really got to find a magic bullet here somewhere.

00:32:48.560 All right, well, we're going to move on to the last part here. We've got two polls in this last

00:32:53.760 segment here on the independence question. It's obviously been burning in Alberta for some time.

00:32:59.600 It came into particular prominence after the 2019 election. Since then, there's been a lot of

00:33:05.280 movement mergers of parties different organizations uh fair deal panels a lot of different things

00:33:11.680 going on uh we pulled on it before with northwest research we had different results but we were

00:33:16.480 asking different questions uh when we pulled on with northwest research we had higher support

00:33:21.120 for independence but it was worded that worded as uh you know if alberta first it failed to obtain

00:33:26.640 a fair deal from ottawa and then held a referendum how would you vote and support for independence

00:33:31.200 there for just Alberta independence was, I think, close to 45%. But that was in the scenario where

00:33:38.020 we've tried to get a deal first and failed, which I think is probably a more realistic scenario. I

00:33:42.600 can't see the province holding a referendum without first presenting some kind of counter

00:33:47.800 proposal to Ottawa before cutting the cord. But in other case, we asked a more black and white,

00:33:52.660 or Quito asked a more black and white question this time. We asked how people would vote on

00:33:58.080 referendum on alberta independence and then we asked uh how people would vote on a referendum

00:34:03.280 if all four pro western provinces together were all having a referendum at the same time on western

00:34:08.880 independence so dave why don't you run us first through the alberta independence numbers and then

00:34:12.800 the western independence numbers before we kick back to keto yeah two polls in one derrick what

00:34:17.920 uh what a deal uh the first poll uh asking whether albertans should uh what they would vote in a

00:34:24.400 referendum 71 percent said that they would vote to stay within canada 25 said they would vote to

00:34:32.640 leave and have a go on it themselves four percent said they didn't know or didn't care so we'll

00:34:38.880 ignore those guys uh keto says uh when i was talking to him that you know they've been polling

00:34:45.200 before and that 25 figure is rising steadily when they first started doing polls on it it was in

00:34:51.920 the teens and and then the 20s and you know now we're up to uh 25 and the poll significantly

00:34:58.480 changes when you ask whether you would support a referendum on independence if all four western

00:35:04.400 provinces uh came along for the ride the voting people voting for it then have shot up to 36

00:35:12.640 of the total who said they'd be willing to give it all and uh 59 of people said they

00:35:19.120 would prefer to remain in Canada those same five percent said they didn't know

00:35:24.760 they didn't care so I think you know you explained it to me that the figure goes

00:35:30.120 up because they people that are voting feel more comfortable economically when

00:35:36.200 there's four Western people for Western provinces doing it all by themselves or

00:35:41.020 as opposed to Alberta doing it all by themselves so keto maybe obviously run

00:35:49.000 us down through these numbers, but also maybe, as I said, this differs from a previous poll we did

00:35:57.040 on Alberta independence. We just did Alberta by itself, not the broader Western question,

00:36:01.900 but maybe speak to, you know, is the Western question a proxy for openness to independence,

00:36:07.840 but cautiousness or shyness about the viability of it without other partners?

00:36:14.560 uh what is it that stands out in these numbers for you and uh maybe elaborate on how they've

00:36:20.200 changed from what you've seen previously yeah i mean to me these were the most shocking numbers

00:36:25.960 as dave said you know we've asked this question before going back the 10 years that mainstream

00:36:31.420 research has been in in existence um you know publishing polls for the last seven uh publicly

00:36:40.120 you know, we've asked this question at least a dozen times, never have had a number this high,

00:36:47.980 I think by a factor of two at least. You know, and I think you're right about the difference

00:36:56.320 between the Alberta independence number versus the Western Canada number. I would almost say

00:37:07.420 that this is probably like chalk it up to like confirmed support and kind of soft support for

00:37:15.180 alberta independence um that that may be with some other reassurances and under other conditions

00:37:22.300 uh up to 36 of albertans might be able to uh support alberta independence but again there's

00:37:28.700 something holding people back on on that number um still you know regardless both these numbers

00:37:36.060 the 25% extremely significant, the highest we've ever seen it, 36%. I don't believe we've ever

00:37:42.060 asked this particular question before, so I don't have a baseline to work from. Still,

00:37:49.500 both these numbers are significant and the highest that we've ever measured.

00:37:55.740 um well let's put it to uh cory um you know it's it's different from we asked as i said i've said

00:38:06.060 before it's a different question than we asked back in june um that was should alberta be you

00:38:12.560 know if we try to obtain a fair deal and it failed uh should alberta be an independent country and

00:38:18.280 then we had different degrees we had strongly degree somewhat agree and then same on the

00:38:23.260 disagree side. So it would be down from that. But compared to other comparable polls from, say,

00:38:28.460 Main Street, Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid, it is up significantly. What do you think is driving this

00:38:35.680 uptick? Because it's higher right now. You would think it would not be this high. You would think

00:38:40.140 it'd be lower right now than it was immediately after the 2019 federal election when Trudeau

00:38:45.040 came to power. What do you think has changed to actually drive it up from that high point of rage

00:38:50.120 when Wexit, you know, became a big thing all of a sudden. Why do you think it's higher now than it

00:38:54.420 was at that point of white hot rage? Yeah, it's sustained and this is different. I mean, we see

00:38:59.180 that after an election because there's a partisan element or a philosophical element. When the

00:39:02.640 liberals get in, we get crabby and we start looking at those options. But usually after a couple of

00:39:07.360 months, a few months, it'll sort of fade down. In this case, it's growing. But I think it's a sense

00:39:12.960 of futility because nothing is changing. We're not seeing any better treatment from Ottawa. We are

00:39:17.840 all feeling beaten down. We're feeling hurt. We feel there's industries that could help us get

00:39:23.520 out of this horrific hole we're digging over the pandemic, but we've got a central government that

00:39:28.640 is working its darndest to shut in our prime industries. So that's making people think we've

00:39:34.560 got nothing to lose. We really don't. And you know, when we look at these numbers right now,

00:39:39.440 the other differential was when you look at the whole West versus Alberta, because that changes

00:39:43.280 a lot of the questions. I mean, the favorite people say, well, you'd be lab locked. I say,

00:39:46.320 yeah, it would be like Switzerland with oil. But, you know, beyond that, if it's all four provinces,

00:39:51.680 then you've got a more diverse economic base, you do have coastline access, there's a lot of

00:39:56.080 questions get answered that way. So it holds more appeal for people. But with a looming potential

00:40:01.520 federal election coming, when we're going into it with this much discontent,

00:40:05.680 if we see the Liberals get back in, I expect we're gonna see these numbers grow a heck of a lot more

00:40:10.800 Yeah, I think another reason driving these is the movement's never been broadly organized to sustain support for independence between elections.

00:40:20.360 You know, when Gretchen was reelected in 2001, there was an uptick and then it quickly went away and it completely disappeared, essentially, when Stephen Harper came to power.

00:40:31.160 You know, it's been ticking along for some time and it really upticked when Trudeau was reelected in October 2019.

00:40:38.000 uh well you know it it did go up after he got elected in 2015 but it went away there was no

00:40:44.100 sustainable organized independence movement or or party with any kind of mainstream recognition at

00:40:49.960 all that seems to be a bit different now and so that maybe that's what's driving support

00:40:53.940 after the kind of these these flashpoint catalysts that get people engaged and maybe that's what

00:40:59.600 my my guess is that's probably one thing that's helping to drive it and perhaps the

00:41:04.240 so far impotence of these fair deal panels that they've, you know, that was supposed to be the,

00:41:10.060 you know, to make us all feel good without going all the way. Nothing's really come of those.

00:41:14.560 Nothing. At all so far. I expect a few things will eventually come to happen, but still nothing so

00:41:21.440 far. Keto, again, we always like to dive beneath the headline numbers here, you know, 25% for

00:41:29.780 Alberta independence, 36% for Western independence within Alberta. In addition, we've kind of talked

00:41:37.960 about maybe what's driving this, but maybe talk about, again, how this is cutting across party

00:41:44.120 lines provincially, how people intend to vote, how it's maybe changing how people intend to vote

00:41:48.740 and how it breaks down regionally. But maybe you can also talk about what are the potential

00:41:57.820 opportunities or threats for the ucp in these numbers yeah again it's one of those things where

00:42:05.260 you know and you know i i worked in politics for a long time before i before i was a pollster and

00:42:12.380 if i was out you know i've been an advisor to many many people over the years and if i was asked to

00:42:19.020 give jason kenny advice on how to handle you know all of this uh again i'd have to shrug my shoulders

00:42:25.820 it's going to be very difficult to navigate if these numbers stay where they are. In addition

00:42:32.540 to the issue of the scandal that's very partisan divide, in addition to the lockdowns and the rest

00:42:42.300 of the pandemic, even when you get beyond that, you know, these numbers point to again that

00:42:49.260 partisan divide among you know it's a pretty huge majority that don't support independence for

00:42:56.380 alberta among all votes it's a you know virtually universal and say edmonton it's a it's a it's

00:43:06.540 almost three quarters majority in calgary um you know i i forget i don't have the table

00:43:12.620 sitting in front of me derek if you have it there in the rest of alberta i believe it's just over

00:43:17.500 50 is it does it touch 50 uh western independence itself i think was 48 or 49 uh it was within

00:43:27.820 the margin of error for a statistical tie so outside of the two big cities so rural including

00:43:33.180 the small smaller cities red deer lethbridge medicine had grand prairie fort mac uh all of

00:43:39.100 those combined it was a statistical dead heat um as you said edmonton it was low double digits it

00:43:47.260 It was in the teens, lower teens.

00:43:49.740 And then, as usual, Calgary is always kind of in the middle, a significant majority against it, but a not insignificant minority in favor of it.

00:43:58.620 But, you know, we sliced and diced how this went by party affiliation.

00:44:04.260 It was, you know, NDP supporters were almost unanimously against Alberta independence and close to unanimously against broader Western independence.

00:44:15.320 Unsurprisingly, Wildrose Independence Party voters were overwhelmingly in favor, although not as close to unanimous as I would have thought.

00:44:23.180 Maybe we'll get your thoughts on that, why like 20%, I think, of Wildrose Independence Party voters don't support independence, which is in the name of that party.

00:44:32.340 Be interested in your thoughts on that.

00:44:33.800 But among UCP supporters, if I remember correctly, it was almost 50-50 support and opposition for independence for Alberta.

00:44:43.220 but when you make it western independence which seems to be have a broader appeal it was something

00:44:48.960 like 60 something percent of ucp uh voters uh i forget if it's past or current intended but

00:44:56.580 something around 60 something percent of ucp voters backed western independence uh love your

00:45:03.040 thoughts keto yeah so when you look at those breakouts and you kind of you know you ask

00:45:08.540 yourself the same question about, you know, how does Jason Kenney and the UCP handle this

00:45:15.140 moving forward? You know, assuming these numbers sort of stay relatively the same or grow,

00:45:23.900 and it's hard to believe they would come down at least until the pandemic is over and people

00:45:29.420 are vaccinated and life can return to normal and maybe then the economy starts doing better.

00:45:36.900 know with these numbers that's the challenge is you know again a majority

00:45:43.020 want to stay very significant majority want one Alberta to continue being part

00:45:48.960 of Canada and yet your own bait political base so how do you how do you

00:45:53.640 stick handle that that's near no win as near no win as you know as some of the

00:46:01.300 lockdown measures, uh, numbers indicate. Um, so, you know, I, I guess I have to give credit to,

00:46:09.220 to Jason Kenny on, on, on the fact that, um, you know, if, if, if it wasn't for him, you know,

00:46:16.520 I, I would almost bet that, that this number that he wouldn't be able to hold onto that UCP base

00:46:24.060 if it wasn't for Jason Kenny. Uh, you know, I know that I've seen some comments on social media

00:46:28.480 saying, oh, well, then you have to get rid of Kenny and bring in a new leader. I think that

00:46:32.720 would be disastrous for the United Conservative Party. I don't think another leader could hold

00:46:38.000 that coalition. I think it would instantly crumble. Again, no judgment on that. If you want it to

00:46:46.240 crumble, maybe that's a good thing for you. But I think just to point out the fact that given

00:46:54.400 these numbers and where other numbers are that jason can it's to his credit of his of the strength

00:46:59.520 of his leadership that that he's even able to hold that number uh as far down as they are

00:47:05.440 today in the polls um got to give him credit for that uh so i'm gonna ask uh both uh corey and

00:47:13.680 uh keto the same question here about uh we're gonna kind of preempt um our next poll coming

00:47:20.080 out it's actually not going to come for a few days but we kind of we've been releasing a poll

00:47:24.560 a day ever since uh friday uh friday afternoon or friday evening um we've got another poll coming

00:47:30.560 out with federal vote intentions um it's essentially correct me if i'm wrong keto but

00:47:37.920 it's essentially uh what we've seen for quite a while conservatives in a commanding lead but

00:47:43.200 you know maybe soft a little bit but not not that soft liberals in a distant second uh followed by

00:47:48.720 the NDP, nothing that crazy, but it's the first time I've ever seen, I've seen any polling done

00:47:54.880 with the Maverick party put into the mix. I remember they were the Wexit party, they're

00:47:58.880 kind of like the federal Bloc Québécois of the right, sorry, of the west, no pun intended, that

00:48:05.680 that's kind of how they build themselves, they're kind of like the western bloc,

00:48:08.880 what they call, they rename themselves Maverick. They were polling at three percent, so in a

00:48:15.280 statistical tie with the green party uh if you're not beating the green party in alberta uh it's a

00:48:21.200 it's gonna be a tough way up uh they were at three percent but wild rose was at uh nine percent um

00:48:28.400 but alberta independence is at 25 and western independence is at 36. um so kito you've talked

00:48:36.160 about you know the job that kenny has done in keeping most people who support independence

00:48:42.640 aren't actually currently voting for independent parties a lot of them have left but a majority of

00:48:46.720 people who would vote for independence are still not voting for parties that support independence

00:48:51.760 uh you've you've talked about that maybe talk about the other side about why um and and i guess

00:48:58.160 they're different maybe you have to break them down federally provincially because their support

00:49:02.080 levels are quite different but why is it that if 36 percent of albertans support independence

00:49:07.680 broadly speaking western um why do only nine percent back the wild rose provincially and only

00:49:13.600 three percent support the maverick federally uh i'll put it first uh maybe to corey and then

00:49:19.680 we'll uh then we'll put it to keto well sure i mean part of it to be blunt your average person

00:49:25.040 on the ground hasn't heard of the maverick party uh you know they came out j hill is a competent

00:49:30.320 guy and experienced but it hasn't been rumbling across the prairies we haven't seen a lot of

00:49:36.560 ground organization or press covering it so they don't realize it's there as an option uh they're

00:49:42.960 they're really in their infant stage as far as a party goes at this point but i mean if it's

00:49:49.040 polling is indicating anything there is a large area of voters they can target as a federal entity

00:49:55.360 uh if if they can position themselves that way but they've obviously just got a long battle to

00:50:00.080 to go before they get there uh so yeah back to you keto uh why is it that you know if you've got

00:50:05.800 25 for alberta and 36 for the west in terms of independent support um you know why is wild rose

00:50:14.560 and uh provincially only at nine and maverick federally only at three yeah you know i guess

00:50:21.980 the you know my taking my pollster hat off and putting my political guy hat on um you know i

00:50:30.460 would say easy answer jason kenny jason kenny's the reason he's you know been around in politics

00:50:36.300 for a long time very well known uh brand political brand um you know he's he's been essentially

00:50:45.260 campaigning for what five years close to five years in between seeking the leadership of the

00:50:51.340 PC party, then the United Conservative Party, then running in the last election, you know,

00:50:58.540 certainly well known by now. And again, it comes down to leadership. And remember, you know, that

00:51:04.780 all the other parties have, except with the exception of the NDP, all the other parties have

00:51:09.340 interim leaders currently, no one's, no one's really, you know, we're in the middle of a pandemic,

00:51:14.540 there's no platform out there for anyone else to really say or do anything uh it's very very

00:51:21.660 difficult to get any kind of oxygen at this point um you know and and the last thing i would say is

00:51:27.980 remember people aren't really that simple not not everybody votes on on on a particular on just one

00:51:36.220 issue very few people in fact vote on just one issue there's 27 other things that you consider

00:51:41.580 before you vote um so i i guess it's more matter of as this issue grows with importance does it

00:51:50.140 become one of those single issue vote intent the ballot question is western independence

00:51:57.020 or alberta independence if that's the case then yeah that's your ceiling somewhere between 25 and

00:52:01.580 36 but it's very rarely ever that simple uh people's voting decisions um it's much more

00:52:09.820 complex so then you know that's that's the full explanation there as to why but but it's an

00:52:15.740 interesting question to understand why uh why independence parties wouldn't be doing better

00:52:21.740 with these numbers yeah well actually and i i should point out again uh even among wild rose

00:52:27.660 independence party supporters it's uh there's 20 odd percent who still wouldn't vote for it my my

00:52:32.380 guess is those are people who probably voted for the original wild rose party they kind of like

00:52:37.020 the populism and the anti-establishment feel of it, but they're not, they're not

00:52:42.860 sovereignists. Well, there's disenchanted UCP supporters who still want a conservative refuge,

00:52:47.820 and that's where they're landing right now. Or, you know, in Quebec, the Parti Quebecois,

00:52:52.700 until recent history, always pulled higher than support for independence. Independence normally,

00:53:00.140 you know, it maxed out at 49.9%. It did get pretty high at one point. But generally, you know,

00:53:05.900 the Parti Québécois could form governments, but they couldn't win the independence referendums.

00:53:09.980 But that's in a province where the politics were not as much along a left-right spectrum,

00:53:15.420 but on a federalist, sovereigntist spectrum. And I think there's signs of that developing in

00:53:21.820 Alberta, but it's not anywhere near what it was until recent history in Quebec. Before we wrap up,

00:53:29.980 uh i'll just put it out to uh to any of our guests on the show keto dave and corey uh final thoughts

00:53:38.220 on on what we're seeing in these polls and what it means uh what what do you think the trends are

00:53:42.220 going forward i think it's going to be an interesting time to be a political watcher in

00:53:49.820 alberta gentlemen it's uh you know we've discussed how kenny's a bit in between a rock and a hard

00:53:55.980 place uh with uh with the decisions that he's going to uh have to be making how does he turn

00:54:01.500 it around from uh the sunbird uh sorry the snowbird scandal uh he's got a lot on of his

00:54:08.620 a lot on his plate so uh fun uh fun days ahead that's for sure i i do like this comment here

00:54:17.660 they call it uh the firewall protocol uh there was a firewall letter written with some ideas but uh

00:54:24.220 The firewall protocol sounds like there's, you know, a glass case somewhere in the premier's office.

00:54:30.060 You can break it and hit a button and walls pop up and everyone from Ottawa is gone and the money stays.

00:54:38.280 It's a button. I love the press, but I'm not sure there is a firewall protocol.

00:54:41.640 But I like the term. I like, you know what? That sounds like a good Jack Bauer movie.

00:54:49.440 The firewall protocol.

00:54:51.560 No, no, it's more of a, what was his name?

00:54:53.940 The big guy who couldn't talk.

00:54:55.980 Martial arts, 90s.

00:55:00.180 It's missing me.

00:55:01.600 Oh, Steven Seagal.

00:55:03.140 Sounds like a Steven Seagal movie.

00:55:05.700 Yeah.

00:55:06.860 Kito, let's go to you for your final thoughts,

00:55:09.800 kind of overall impressions on where we are from this poll,

00:55:13.120 and what do you think is going to happen going forward?

00:55:14.980 Yeah, you know, I just have to echo Dave's thoughts there in that, you know, to me this

00:55:23.940 is just, you know, if you're a political observer, like myself, or a pollster, or any kind of,

00:55:33.300 it's really interesting times. I think Jason Kenney has basically three challenges between

00:55:38.980 now and and and the next election or at least i guess going into 2022 um you know first he's got

00:55:46.100 to overcome the the instant uh and ongoing and prolonged uh anger at the current scandal that

00:55:55.220 will dissipate that's just don't let you know obviously this poll points to you know some

00:56:00.260 further actions you could take that maybe would make people happy i think time does that on its

00:56:05.620 own um but then he's got the second challenge which is how to have how to handle restrictions

00:56:13.060 and and and and lockdowns for the remainder of this pandemic i think that's going to last a lot

00:56:18.900 longer probably you know at least until the fall maybe to the end of the year uh and then going

00:56:24.340 into 2022 if all these things keep doing the same damage and these poll numbers stay the same around

00:56:30.900 independence western independence western alienation in general being at an all-time high

00:56:36.580 um that that will that will mean that even getting into 2022 it's not like he's going to be skating

00:56:42.580 free he's still got a stick handle the independence question um and by that time all the other

00:56:48.660 parties likely are going to have permanent leaders um and uh and maybe that becomes uh

00:56:55.780 uh, you know, maybe that gives them a boost as well. So interesting times, looking forward to

00:57:02.260 continuing to measure this as, as it goes along. And, uh, yeah, just happy to be back in on,

00:57:08.180 on TV in Calgary where I know I'm so popular. Thanks for having me. Well, you know, we normally

00:57:13.980 have about a hundred people watching at any time. We're building our audience slowly but surely.

00:57:17.740 It's not that big, but I'm pretty sure it's more than watch CBC Calgary at any time. So,

00:57:21.560 So welcome to the second biggest show.

00:57:25.460 Corey, I'd like your thoughts as we wrap up.

00:57:29.820 Just much similar.

00:57:30.960 You know, we're seeing a very volatile electorate, very volatile times.

00:57:36.080 It's just going to be some interesting watching and maneuvering.

00:57:39.080 So from a political watcher, it's gold.

00:57:41.220 From people having to live through it, it's misery.

00:57:43.100 Time will tell.

00:57:44.320 Yeah, I think it was, I don't remember the exact quote, but Ralph Klein said,

00:57:49.640 look, sometimes the media have an ideological agenda, but more than anything else, they're

00:57:53.400 just fight promoters. We like fights. We like controversy. We want something to happen.

00:57:59.400 You know, I can tell you, Dave and I were dreading the time in the news cycle between Christmas

00:58:03.960 and about a week or two after New Year's because nothing happens. The media are always praying for

00:58:08.240 an earthquake or war or something, so they have something to talk about. That was not the case.

00:58:12.640 We had record readership.

00:58:15.280 You know, we actually had 1.3 million readers in December.

00:58:19.220 We have, I think in the next day or two,

00:58:22.280 we'll probably hit a million readers already in January

00:58:25.420 before we even finish the month.

00:58:26.840 We're currently on track for another record month here.

00:58:30.160 It has not been slow.

00:58:32.060 But before we go, I want to thank you all,

00:58:34.200 all our viewers for their time.

00:58:36.320 I want to thank our members for their support.

00:58:38.460 We greatly appreciate it.

00:58:40.180 We cannot do the Western Standard without you

00:58:42.180 because we do not accept government media bailouts uh we're not funded by the unions or special

00:58:46.500 interest groups so if you enjoy what you're seeing today and you appreciate the work that we're doing

00:58:51.860 please uh go to westernstandardonline.com and become a member for a few bucks a month

00:58:57.220 you can support uh real independent western journalism uh owned and operated here from the

00:59:02.660 west and bailout free uh but gentlemen uh keto dave uh corey uh thank you all very much for your

00:59:10.180 time i've greatly appreciated it uh have a great rest of your week thank you

Western Standard - January 14, 2021

Jan 13, 2021

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