00:03:56.700And joining me in the studio in our downtown Calgary offices today is Western Standard podcast editor and columnist extraordinaire, Corey Morgan.
00:05:03.860I'll just kind of give an overview really quickly of the different topics we've polled on,
00:05:08.060and then we're going to dive into each one.
00:05:11.560You have polled on where people intend to vote in Alberta right now, a snapshot.
00:05:18.500It's incredible numbers. UCP supports completely collapsed. We'll get into that. You've pulled on what Albertans think needs to happen in the wake of the great Snowbird scandal. What do people think Jason Kenney needs to resign? Does he need to fire the Snowbird MLAs? Has he done enough? Or did he do too much? We've got numbers on that.
00:05:38.500We've got numbers on what Albertans think about the lockdown.
00:05:42.500Numbers showing that a rising, growing minority of Albertans are opposed to the lockdown, some of them very much so.
00:05:50.500We also did some new polling numbers on support in Alberta for an independent Alberta by itself,
00:05:58.500and as well as support in Alberta for broader Western independence.
00:06:03.500And we've got some very interesting numbers there.
00:06:06.500But we're going to go straight to Quito now for some.
00:06:11.380Actually, we're going to go to Dave first, just for an overview on the numbers.
00:06:14.900Shocking new polling numbers on support for the different political parties in Alberta, Dave.
00:06:25.300Yeah, those numbers are, as Quito himself said, horrific for Jason Kenney and the ruling UCP.
00:06:32.700If an election was held today, we'd be saying Premier Rachel Notley again.
00:06:37.800Only 26% support for the UCP under Jason Keddie, compared to 41% of support for Albertans for the NDP.
00:06:49.440Wild Rose Independence Party takes just 9% along with that.
00:06:54.860This is a very, very recent poll, Derek, as you know.
00:06:58.440Main Street was out in the field on January 6th to 7th.
00:07:02.700So it was just last week, and it's just a total collapse of support for the UCP, and I think the quote from Quito was, it's absolutely terrible for Jason Kenney.
00:07:21.040Quito, were the numbers as staggering to you as they were to me?
00:07:23.920yeah i mean you know before i start i guess you know i've gotten in trouble for some of the stuff
00:07:30.820in the past in terms of not making the the the correct caveats here remember that a poll is a
00:07:39.320snapshot in time remember when we did this poll sort of right on top of this scandal um obviously
00:07:46.500numbers change we've seen numbers change dramatically in in alberta before so but
00:07:52.520Certainly at this time right now, and certainly from when we did this latest snapshot, I mean,
00:08:00.280to put in context here, this is the highest, including just before the 2015 election,
00:08:07.480the highest that the NDP has ever pulled. You were talking about all voters, 26.
00:08:14.280uh you know when you look at decided and leaning vote it's 48 31 um yeah ucp doing uh um just a
00:08:24.360little bit better than they did at the uh uh at the end of the 2015 election uh where i believe
00:08:32.520they got around 27 percent uh but remember that was with uh a divided uh right um so this is
00:08:41.800actually slightly better than the PCs did in 2015 but this is the highest the NDP has ever pulled so
00:08:48.040uh you know that that is the shocking part to be quite honest is that um that the NDP is enjoying
00:08:54.520that level of support higher than just before the 2018 uh the 2015 election I think the highest we
00:09:01.080ever pulled them before was around 44 percent I've never seen any poll ours or others that has had
00:09:07.240the MVP support this high before. Corey? Yeah, well, this is not even me. I mean,
00:09:15.320we kind of expected, you know, you can see the backlash, you can see the discontent on left and
00:09:19.480right. Kenny and the UCP just can't seem to grab traction no matter what they try to do.
00:09:25.400But still, this was shocking. And the caucus is rattled. I talked to a member off the record and
00:09:33.400And, you know, internals, I'm sure, are probably saying the same thing.
00:09:37.020And Kenny has really got to fear internal discord at this time, because if there's anything that motivates an MLA, it's if they think their own job's on the line.
00:09:48.060And then party loyalty or loyalty to a particular leader suddenly doesn't seem to be the top priority.
00:09:52.800Not saying every member is considering these things, but when they start looking at numbers and thinking, boy, I'm going to be unemployed in two years, they start reconsidering where they're going.
00:10:00.480And with an up-and-coming party coming up on the right flank, particularly in rural areas, I think we might see some very interesting things happening in the near future here.
00:10:09.940Comment from Sandy McLennan. Sandy, I think you're confusing federal and provincial.
00:10:16.500The Liberals provincially, I think, are 2% in this poll.
00:10:20.540Justin Trudeau is a federal politician.
00:10:22.200So any divide between Kenny's UCP and the Wild Rose Independence Party has very little to do with Justin Trudeau.
00:10:29.760uh they're entirely different levels of government uh so i just think a little bit of uh a little bit
00:10:36.080of uh confusion between the levels of government there uh keto what do you think is obviously
00:10:42.000there's much at play here and this poll was taken uh fresh off the heels uh of the of the great
00:10:48.640snowbird scandal but uh what do you think are the primary factors uh driving the collapse in support
00:10:57.120both to the NDP and to the Wild Rose Independence Party? What are the issues and factors that are
00:11:03.360driving that exodus of supporters at this time? Yeah, I mean, you know, it's sort of an impossible
00:11:12.560step between a rock and a hard place for Jason Kenney right now, in terms of what are the two
00:11:18.400main driving factors behind these numbers, being both, you know, what's going on with the pandemic
00:11:24.480and the lockdowns and this current scandal, it's very difficult to navigate. And then when we
00:11:36.240throw on top of that the issue of Alberta or Western independence, again, it's very difficult
00:11:44.400to see how Jason Kenney and the UCP navigate this ahead of the next election. I mean, sure,
00:11:51.760this anger over this particular scandal will dissipate. I mean, the most interesting number
00:11:56.000to me was when we look at, because we did also ask how people intended to vote federally,
00:12:02.720how they voted in the last federal election, how they voted in the last provincial election.
00:12:07.200When I look at that breakout for the past provincial vote, and it says the 21% of UCP
00:12:14.640vote says that Jason Kenney should resign and the six MLA should all resign as a result of
00:12:22.000that's bringing us into our next poll here I guess we can transition now so when we come back
00:12:30.520to you in a second Quito Dave can run us through these numbers here what do Albertans think needs
00:12:37.840to happen in the wake of the snowbird scandal what do they want to see happen for accountability
00:12:42.020And then we'll come back to you, Kido.
00:12:45.700I didn't mean to interrupt you, but I guess we want to introduce these numbers first before we dive into them.
00:13:02.020The Snowbird scandal seems to have hit the UCP party hard, and particularly Jason Kenney.
00:13:08.420And kind of a stunning number to me that 41% of the people that were polled by Quito's staff says that Kenny should resign himself.
00:13:19.52041% of all Alberta voters said that, and they want the six backbenchers out too.
00:13:26.660So the six snowboard MLAs who flew to Arizona and Vegas and Hawaii.
00:13:32.500And that figure includes 21% of the people that voted for UCP in the last election.
00:13:40.34027% of people said Kenny's actions to date don't go far enough.
00:13:45.700All he's done, he's fired his chief of staff and he's reduced Tracy Allard from Minister of Municipal Affairs back to just being regular old Grand Prairie MLA.
00:13:57.220That's a hit that's going to cost her $60,000 in salary.
00:14:01.380his chief of staff Jamie Huckabee he was on a quarter million dollars a year so those are the
00:14:08.140only two that are going to take a big financial hit because of it all the other MLAs were demoted
00:14:14.640from their cabinet responsibilities in terms of legislature committees that I'm sure nobody cares
00:14:21.940about not even them so most of our most of the people you talk to keto not happy with Kenny and
00:14:30.340not happy with the actions that he's taken so far yeah correct and you know going back to what i was
00:14:36.180saying earlier you can you can actually measure the extent of the damage from this particular
00:14:42.580scandal on its own by looking at that breakout number of them the number of people who said they
00:14:48.580would vote ucp in the book sorry who indicated to us uh self-disclosed that they voted ucp in the
00:14:56.100last election in 2019 election and how they would vote today just six percent of those people said
00:15:04.260that Jason Kenney and the six MLA should resign I mean that's a 15 point gap there's your damage
00:15:10.980does it mean he should resign does it mean he will in fact it probably would be worse if he did
00:15:16.100no but this number tells us the the exact damage that this particular scandal has had
00:15:23.300on on the ucp and and on jason kenny's popularity it's it's uh it's astonishing haven't seen
00:15:29.540something like this since i would say you know gomri days for on on paul martin's uh vote intentions
00:15:37.220and approval numbers um yeah the way the high level numbers are what get people to read an
00:15:46.180article but it's it's the cross tabulations it's the digging into the data that's really interesting
00:15:50.660and I think you're capturing it here, Keto. You said it's 20 or 21% of people who voted UCP in
00:15:57.700the last election say that Jason Kenney should resign, which is the most nuclear option that we
00:16:02.820had in this poll. But then still, I think 30-odd said that Kenney needs to fire the minister and
00:16:11.860the other six Snowbird MLAs from the UCP caucus, something that's significantly more harsh than
00:16:19.780kenny has done to date so that that would be a majority of people who voted ucp in the last
00:16:25.540election who are saying um that he should do more that he should do a lot more uh ranging from uh
00:16:33.860resign to fire seven mlas from the caucus and i've never heard of seven mlas being fired
00:16:38.900collectively that would be that would be a red wedding of a political night um uh keto uh as you
00:16:45.460said we can actually measure quite significantly how much this is bitten out of them because so
00:16:49.460and any of them came from people who say they voted UCP in the last election.
00:16:54.020Is there really a way out of this for Kenny?
00:16:58.980I think I got a bridge to sell you if you think he will.
00:17:02.020But is there really a way out of this other than just keep his head down and hope people forget about it?
00:17:08.960Yeah, I mean, I think time, you know, I always use the example, not just in when polling Alberta,
00:17:16.180but I always use the example nationally about what we saw leading up to the 2015 election in Alberta.
00:17:24.54060 days before the election was called, you know, at the time Jim Prentice and the PCs were polling
00:17:31.240in the mid-50s with the Wildrose in the low 20s and the NDP a distant third, not even,
00:17:40.060And then to see what happened on election day, to see that shift in numbers, you know, 30-point shift for the PCs downward, more than 15 points upwards for the wild rows.
00:17:59.100and like the reverse of the PCs for the NDP at that time going from mid-teens up to what they
00:18:08.180got on election day, 41%. You know, we had them polling as high as 44, about three or four days
00:18:13.480out, and then they came back down to 41%. You know, of course, there's always a way out. It's
00:18:18.760two years to the election uh this anger will dissipate um you know and you know but it's
00:18:29.960as you said a majority of his own base uh is hoping that the premier does something else
00:18:35.640so there should be more consequences i you know i i certainly don't envy him his position on having
00:18:42.920to navigate this for the next couple of months and then even leading up until the next election when
00:18:48.120we look at some of the other numbers around how the pandemic and lockdowns is handling
00:18:55.560of the pandemic and lockdowns and some of the sentiment around Western alienation and
00:19:02.200independence for Alberta or Western Canada, all of these things point to a very difficult
00:19:09.160political navigation for the premier between now and the next election.
00:19:13.720Okay. Corey, obviously, you've been watching this as it happens. You've written some columns on it.
00:19:23.880This has clearly infuriated people on both sides. The scandal on the left seems to have died as
00:19:28.700soon as this caught up Nahid Nenshi. You've written on that. But you're a guy who's pretty
00:19:35.780in touch with kind of the conservative UCP base. Do you think this is going to have a significant
00:19:41.800lasting repercussion or is this going to be more or less forgotten in two years when people go to
00:19:45.860vote? No, it's going to be lasting because it's a matter of trust. Even if people forget the issue
00:19:50.780specifically, they've got a feeling of mistrust, you know, that there's nothing hurts more than
00:19:56.200hypocrisy. And that's what this was. I mean, we're all suffering. The whole world is suffering
00:20:00.260under this pandemic. We're doing sacrifices. We're staying in. And then we got that feeling
00:20:05.440that those who are telling us to stay in aren't doing the same thing. This is a horrific
00:20:11.540demonstration to people and i mean it's not to say it's impossible to gain that trust back but
00:20:16.260it's going to take work like just leaving it alone is not going to recover what was lost he's got to
00:20:20.980reach out and somehow get those people back and i'm not sure how he's going to do it all right
00:20:26.580well uh we're going to move on to the next one here uh that is very closely related to it uh
00:20:33.940We've got more polling from Quito and Main Street here on what Albertans are thinking
00:31:58.060Yeah, he's walking a razor's edge, though.
00:32:01.300And as you said, it's sort of, as Kido said, too, very no-win.
00:32:05.900I mean, people sometimes wonder why conservative leaders will lean a little bit too much
00:32:10.340towards, say, a socially conservative minority or things like that. Well, that's because the
00:32:15.180conservative base is integral to the party. Those are your door knockers. Those are your donors.
00:32:19.140These are the people that get you elected, even though they might not represent the majority who
00:32:23.760are the voters who in the much bigger picture get you elected. He can't afford to alienate too many
00:32:29.720of either side right now. But it seems a lot of his efforts in trying not to, he's just ticking
00:32:36.080them off on both sides. So how he's going to find that balance, I honestly don't know, but he's
00:32:40.820going to have to get on it. As Kido said too, things can change really fast in politics,
00:32:44.800but he's really got to find a magic bullet here somewhere.
00:32:48.560All right, well, we're going to move on to the last part here. We've got two polls in this last
00:32:53.760segment here on the independence question. It's obviously been burning in Alberta for some time.
00:32:59.600It came into particular prominence after the 2019 election. Since then, there's been a lot of
00:33:05.280movement mergers of parties different organizations uh fair deal panels a lot of different things
00:33:11.680going on uh we pulled on it before with northwest research we had different results but we were
00:33:16.480asking different questions uh when we pulled on with northwest research we had higher support
00:33:21.120for independence but it was worded that worded as uh you know if alberta first it failed to obtain
00:33:26.640a fair deal from ottawa and then held a referendum how would you vote and support for independence
00:33:31.200there for just Alberta independence was, I think, close to 45%. But that was in the scenario where
00:33:38.020we've tried to get a deal first and failed, which I think is probably a more realistic scenario. I
00:33:42.600can't see the province holding a referendum without first presenting some kind of counter
00:33:47.800proposal to Ottawa before cutting the cord. But in other case, we asked a more black and white,
00:33:52.660or Quito asked a more black and white question this time. We asked how people would vote on
00:33:58.080referendum on alberta independence and then we asked uh how people would vote on a referendum
00:34:03.280if all four pro western provinces together were all having a referendum at the same time on western
00:34:08.880independence so dave why don't you run us first through the alberta independence numbers and then
00:34:12.800the western independence numbers before we kick back to keto yeah two polls in one derrick what
00:34:17.920uh what a deal uh the first poll uh asking whether albertans should uh what they would vote in a
00:34:24.400referendum 71 percent said that they would vote to stay within canada 25 said they would vote to
00:34:32.640leave and have a go on it themselves four percent said they didn't know or didn't care so we'll
00:34:38.880ignore those guys uh keto says uh when i was talking to him that you know they've been polling
00:34:45.200before and that 25 figure is rising steadily when they first started doing polls on it it was in
00:34:51.920the teens and and then the 20s and you know now we're up to uh 25 and the poll significantly
00:34:58.480changes when you ask whether you would support a referendum on independence if all four western
00:35:04.400provinces uh came along for the ride the voting people voting for it then have shot up to 36
00:35:12.640of the total who said they'd be willing to give it all and uh 59 of people said they
00:35:19.120would prefer to remain in Canada those same five percent said they didn't know
00:35:24.760they didn't care so I think you know you explained it to me that the figure goes
00:35:30.120up because they people that are voting feel more comfortable economically when
00:35:36.200there's four Western people for Western provinces doing it all by themselves or
00:35:41.020as opposed to Alberta doing it all by themselves so keto maybe obviously run
00:35:49.000us down through these numbers, but also maybe, as I said, this differs from a previous poll we did
00:35:57.040on Alberta independence. We just did Alberta by itself, not the broader Western question,
00:36:01.900but maybe speak to, you know, is the Western question a proxy for openness to independence,
00:36:07.840but cautiousness or shyness about the viability of it without other partners?
00:36:14.560uh what is it that stands out in these numbers for you and uh maybe elaborate on how they've
00:36:20.200changed from what you've seen previously yeah i mean to me these were the most shocking numbers
00:36:25.960as dave said you know we've asked this question before going back the 10 years that mainstream
00:36:31.420research has been in in existence um you know publishing polls for the last seven uh publicly
00:36:40.120you know, we've asked this question at least a dozen times, never have had a number this high,
00:36:47.980I think by a factor of two at least. You know, and I think you're right about the difference
00:36:56.320between the Alberta independence number versus the Western Canada number. I would almost say
00:37:07.420that this is probably like chalk it up to like confirmed support and kind of soft support for
00:37:15.180alberta independence um that that may be with some other reassurances and under other conditions
00:37:22.300uh up to 36 of albertans might be able to uh support alberta independence but again there's
00:37:28.700something holding people back on on that number um still you know regardless both these numbers
00:37:36.060the 25% extremely significant, the highest we've ever seen it, 36%. I don't believe we've ever
00:37:42.060asked this particular question before, so I don't have a baseline to work from. Still,
00:37:49.500both these numbers are significant and the highest that we've ever measured.
00:37:55.740um well let's put it to uh cory um you know it's it's different from we asked as i said i've said
00:38:06.060before it's a different question than we asked back in june um that was should alberta be you
00:38:12.560know if we try to obtain a fair deal and it failed uh should alberta be an independent country and
00:38:18.280then we had different degrees we had strongly degree somewhat agree and then same on the
00:38:23.260disagree side. So it would be down from that. But compared to other comparable polls from, say,
00:38:28.460Main Street, Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid, it is up significantly. What do you think is driving this
00:38:35.680uptick? Because it's higher right now. You would think it would not be this high. You would think
00:38:40.140it'd be lower right now than it was immediately after the 2019 federal election when Trudeau
00:38:45.040came to power. What do you think has changed to actually drive it up from that high point of rage
00:38:50.120when Wexit, you know, became a big thing all of a sudden. Why do you think it's higher now than it
00:38:54.420was at that point of white hot rage? Yeah, it's sustained and this is different. I mean, we see
00:38:59.180that after an election because there's a partisan element or a philosophical element. When the
00:39:02.640liberals get in, we get crabby and we start looking at those options. But usually after a couple of
00:39:07.360months, a few months, it'll sort of fade down. In this case, it's growing. But I think it's a sense
00:39:12.960of futility because nothing is changing. We're not seeing any better treatment from Ottawa. We are
00:39:17.840all feeling beaten down. We're feeling hurt. We feel there's industries that could help us get
00:39:23.520out of this horrific hole we're digging over the pandemic, but we've got a central government that
00:39:28.640is working its darndest to shut in our prime industries. So that's making people think we've
00:39:34.560got nothing to lose. We really don't. And you know, when we look at these numbers right now,
00:39:39.440the other differential was when you look at the whole West versus Alberta, because that changes
00:39:43.280a lot of the questions. I mean, the favorite people say, well, you'd be lab locked. I say,
00:39:46.320yeah, it would be like Switzerland with oil. But, you know, beyond that, if it's all four provinces,
00:39:51.680then you've got a more diverse economic base, you do have coastline access, there's a lot of
00:39:56.080questions get answered that way. So it holds more appeal for people. But with a looming potential
00:40:01.520federal election coming, when we're going into it with this much discontent,
00:40:05.680if we see the Liberals get back in, I expect we're gonna see these numbers grow a heck of a lot more
00:40:10.800Yeah, I think another reason driving these is the movement's never been broadly organized to sustain support for independence between elections.
00:40:20.360You know, when Gretchen was reelected in 2001, there was an uptick and then it quickly went away and it completely disappeared, essentially, when Stephen Harper came to power.
00:40:31.160You know, it's been ticking along for some time and it really upticked when Trudeau was reelected in October 2019.
00:40:38.000uh well you know it it did go up after he got elected in 2015 but it went away there was no
00:40:44.100sustainable organized independence movement or or party with any kind of mainstream recognition at
00:40:49.960all that seems to be a bit different now and so that maybe that's what's driving support
00:40:53.940after the kind of these these flashpoint catalysts that get people engaged and maybe that's what
00:40:59.600my my guess is that's probably one thing that's helping to drive it and perhaps the
00:41:04.240so far impotence of these fair deal panels that they've, you know, that was supposed to be the,
00:41:10.060you know, to make us all feel good without going all the way. Nothing's really come of those.
00:41:14.560Nothing. At all so far. I expect a few things will eventually come to happen, but still nothing so
00:41:21.440far. Keto, again, we always like to dive beneath the headline numbers here, you know, 25% for
00:41:29.780Alberta independence, 36% for Western independence within Alberta. In addition, we've kind of talked
00:41:37.960about maybe what's driving this, but maybe talk about, again, how this is cutting across party
00:41:44.120lines provincially, how people intend to vote, how it's maybe changing how people intend to vote
00:41:48.740and how it breaks down regionally. But maybe you can also talk about what are the potential
00:41:57.820opportunities or threats for the ucp in these numbers yeah again it's one of those things where
00:42:05.260you know and you know i i worked in politics for a long time before i before i was a pollster and
00:42:12.380if i was out you know i've been an advisor to many many people over the years and if i was asked to
00:42:19.020give jason kenny advice on how to handle you know all of this uh again i'd have to shrug my shoulders
00:42:25.820it's going to be very difficult to navigate if these numbers stay where they are. In addition
00:42:32.540to the issue of the scandal that's very partisan divide, in addition to the lockdowns and the rest
00:42:42.300of the pandemic, even when you get beyond that, you know, these numbers point to again that
00:42:49.260partisan divide among you know it's a pretty huge majority that don't support independence for
00:42:56.380alberta among all votes it's a you know virtually universal and say edmonton it's a it's a it's
00:43:06.540almost three quarters majority in calgary um you know i i forget i don't have the table
00:43:12.620sitting in front of me derek if you have it there in the rest of alberta i believe it's just over
00:43:17.50050 is it does it touch 50 uh western independence itself i think was 48 or 49 uh it was within
00:43:27.820the margin of error for a statistical tie so outside of the two big cities so rural including
00:43:33.180the small smaller cities red deer lethbridge medicine had grand prairie fort mac uh all of
00:43:39.100those combined it was a statistical dead heat um as you said edmonton it was low double digits it
00:43:49.740And then, as usual, Calgary is always kind of in the middle, a significant majority against it, but a not insignificant minority in favor of it.
00:43:58.620But, you know, we sliced and diced how this went by party affiliation.
00:44:04.260It was, you know, NDP supporters were almost unanimously against Alberta independence and close to unanimously against broader Western independence.
00:44:15.320Unsurprisingly, Wildrose Independence Party voters were overwhelmingly in favor, although not as close to unanimous as I would have thought.
00:44:23.180Maybe we'll get your thoughts on that, why like 20%, I think, of Wildrose Independence Party voters don't support independence, which is in the name of that party.
00:44:32.340Be interested in your thoughts on that.
00:44:33.800But among UCP supporters, if I remember correctly, it was almost 50-50 support and opposition for independence for Alberta.
00:44:43.220but when you make it western independence which seems to be have a broader appeal it was something
00:44:48.960like 60 something percent of ucp uh voters uh i forget if it's past or current intended but
00:44:56.580something around 60 something percent of ucp voters backed western independence uh love your
00:45:03.040thoughts keto yeah so when you look at those breakouts and you kind of you know you ask
00:45:08.540yourself the same question about, you know, how does Jason Kenney and the UCP handle this
00:45:15.140moving forward? You know, assuming these numbers sort of stay relatively the same or grow,
00:45:23.900and it's hard to believe they would come down at least until the pandemic is over and people
00:45:29.420are vaccinated and life can return to normal and maybe then the economy starts doing better.
00:45:36.900know with these numbers that's the challenge is you know again a majority
00:45:43.020want to stay very significant majority want one Alberta to continue being part
00:45:48.960of Canada and yet your own bait political base so how do you how do you
00:45:53.640stick handle that that's near no win as near no win as you know as some of the
00:46:01.300lockdown measures, uh, numbers indicate. Um, so, you know, I, I guess I have to give credit to,
00:46:09.220to Jason Kenny on, on, on the fact that, um, you know, if, if, if it wasn't for him, you know,
00:46:16.520I, I would almost bet that, that this number that he wouldn't be able to hold onto that UCP base
00:46:24.060if it wasn't for Jason Kenny. Uh, you know, I know that I've seen some comments on social media
00:46:28.480saying, oh, well, then you have to get rid of Kenny and bring in a new leader. I think that
00:46:32.720would be disastrous for the United Conservative Party. I don't think another leader could hold
00:46:38.000that coalition. I think it would instantly crumble. Again, no judgment on that. If you want it to
00:46:46.240crumble, maybe that's a good thing for you. But I think just to point out the fact that given
00:46:54.400these numbers and where other numbers are that jason can it's to his credit of his of the strength
00:46:59.520of his leadership that that he's even able to hold that number uh as far down as they are
00:47:05.440today in the polls um got to give him credit for that uh so i'm gonna ask uh both uh corey and
00:47:13.680uh keto the same question here about uh we're gonna kind of preempt um our next poll coming
00:47:20.080out it's actually not going to come for a few days but we kind of we've been releasing a poll
00:47:24.560a day ever since uh friday uh friday afternoon or friday evening um we've got another poll coming
00:47:30.560out with federal vote intentions um it's essentially correct me if i'm wrong keto but
00:47:37.920it's essentially uh what we've seen for quite a while conservatives in a commanding lead but
00:47:43.200you know maybe soft a little bit but not not that soft liberals in a distant second uh followed by
00:47:48.720the NDP, nothing that crazy, but it's the first time I've ever seen, I've seen any polling done
00:47:54.880with the Maverick party put into the mix. I remember they were the Wexit party, they're