Western Standard - Liberals waiting to pounce？

00:00:00.000 good evening western standard viewers and welcome to hannahford a weekly politics show of the

00:00:21.600 western standard it is thursday march the 19th in just nine days time the ndp is meeting in

00:00:29.600 winnipeg to choose a new leader the pointed issue is really whether anybody cares let's face it the

00:00:35.760 last leader they had didn't do so well destroyed the party some people say so whoever it is going

00:00:42.800 to be is going to have their hands full but with me today is somebody who does still care and that's

00:00:51.200 josh andrus josh is the new director of operations at the western standard welcome to the show josh

00:00:59.440 Thanks for having me, Nigel. It's awesome to be here.

00:01:01.680 Well, you know, we're interested to hear what you got to say.

00:01:06.880 Now, Josh here comes to us from the government of Alberta. He was a staffer, a policy advisor to

00:01:16.240 Dale Nally, who was the red tape reduction minister. And of course, the joke around the

00:01:22.960 officers that's probably part of why derek hired him gotta get rid of the red tape around the

00:01:30.560 western standard right i agree amen josh you were also executive you were also executive director

00:01:39.440 for project confederation what was that all about yeah so project confederation was born out of uh

00:01:46.960 what i felt were a series of frustrations towards the federal government in albert i think we've

00:01:52.720 seen the genesis of that in the recent uh the independence uh referendum uh citizen initiated

00:02:00.320 referendum uh process has been initiated by i think it's uh the what do they call themselves

00:02:04.960 the alberta first you're supposed to know this i'm just yeah that's a good point um

00:02:11.920 so yeah um it's sylvester dennis modry and a group are uh going out collecting signatures but

00:02:16.960 i knew you knew the concept was that uh yeah that i think there's a lot of people that are

00:02:23.920 fed up with being in this country and are going to vote to leave no matter what i think the issue

00:02:29.000 that a lot of people have is what happens if that vote doesn't go the way that sylvester and company

00:02:35.600 think it's going to go and i think when you look at the overall picture of western alienation in

00:02:40.700 this country there's there's a series of things that are happening now i don't work on the file

00:02:44.220 anymore obviously because i'm here now but that is a definite uh tone as we head into the next year

00:02:52.220 uh we'll maybe see a vote in october i don't know what exactly the date will be but um so

00:02:58.060 project confederation was kind of more geared towards the people who are frustrated with the

00:03:02.300 state of affairs that aren't quite prepared to vote to leave tomorrow all right um so that was

00:03:07.740 the idea there so it was built on the principles of the reform party which was run by preston

00:03:11.660 Manning in the 90s, as well as the famous firewall letter signed by Steven Harper, Ted

00:03:17.260 Morton, Ken Bozenkuhl, Andy Crooks, and I think I'm missing someone.

00:03:23.780 But that was the concept and, you know, I eventually did move into government.

00:03:30.180 So I worked there for the last year.

00:03:33.420 My last minister was Dale Nally, the Minister of Service, Alberta and Red Tape Production.

00:03:37.500 So I had a great time in there, but I wanted to get back into Calgary and I wanted to come

00:03:41.140 down here so uh derek put put an offer on the table and i said yeah i'm coming back so it's

00:03:46.740 i'm happy to be back absolutely oh you bring i must say josh you bring with you a pretty solid

00:03:51.380 resume i know you're going to be a great addition to the office around here having that experience

00:03:56.180 not only in public policy but also in government and of course you you're very familiar with what

00:04:02.740 we do here at the western standard so just as an aside welcome to the team thank you now tell us

00:04:08.420 about the ndp and why you think that it matters who they choose for a leader and what happens next

00:04:14.500 so i don't actually think it matters who they choose as leader i think that the ndp are in a

00:04:19.540 precarious political position they are going to have a new leader no matter what someone without

00:04:26.820 a huge public profile they've also seen their polling numbers bleed to the liberals we saw

00:04:32.660 during the election where their uh popularity of their vote share absolutely collapsed against

00:04:39.220 liberals i don't think it matters who they put at the top whether it be avi lewis heather mcpherson

00:04:44.340 or any of the other three candidates i think that the liberals are essentially eating the

00:04:49.700 ndp and i think that puts them in an incredibly precarious position as we move into the next few

00:04:55.620 months here so yeah i uh that kind of brings me to you know i guess the question is what happens

00:05:02.900 over the next couple of months do the liberals uh take advantage of these uh strong polls we've seen

00:05:09.460 recent polls from abacus data and liaison strategies that show the liberals with a

00:05:13.620 commanding 11 to 14 point lead over the conservatives the liberals don't want a strong

00:05:19.380 ndp leader so i think the question on that i'd like to really get into is do the liberals call

00:05:26.260 an early election do they move on uh potentially after the vote uh on these three by-elections

00:05:34.260 there's one in toronto in university of rosedale there's one in terrabonne which is uh in quebec

00:05:40.420 and another in scarborough southwest if the liberals sweep the table especially in that

00:05:44.660 terabon i'm sure you were following uh over how the results were overturned i think yeah like if

00:05:50.100 the liberals have a have a strong showing there i don't see any reason why they wouldn't call the

00:05:55.220 election why wouldn't you press your luck why wouldn't you push to to get a legitimate majority

00:06:00.660 especially with the specter of donald trump and a trade trade negotiation coming up well okay let's

00:06:06.100 let's just talk about this so uh terrible yeah um if the the other two uh by-elections are are

00:06:14.500 certs for the liberals one is the the rosedale the university of rosedale yep in toronto and

00:06:21.460 the other is a little further west uh both are very solid what is it scarborough scarborough

00:06:28.740 thank you yes um and so those are those are solid they're not going anywhere

00:06:35.540 if they don't capture terrible then maybe mr carney has just more minority government

00:06:46.820 because he'd have the same number of seats but he's got to give up one for the speaker so

00:06:50.900 you know you really have to make sure everybody is well and drives carefully if you're going to

00:06:55.300 yeah yeah sort of thing so so is it your contention that in that circumstance he would look at the

00:07:02.660 polling and say look i'm ahead 56 i think was the last one i saw i i mean i didn't know whether

00:07:08.340 to believe it to be honest you because nobody gets 56 approvals but anyway uh let's let's say

00:07:14.500 it's true and let's say that you think that he would go for it yeah i mean if i was in his

00:07:20.260 position just sitting on like you said where you're on the edge of the night right like you're not in

00:07:25.140 a position where you know you can afford to have three or four mlas all catch the fluid or mps all

00:07:31.140 catch the flu at the same time especially on like a potential voter voter non-confidence so we're in

00:07:36.020 a position where yeah you're on the edge of a knife you win terabon i think that puts you in

00:07:40.500 majority territory you lose terabon uh yeah it's it's a little bit trickier but even then like

00:07:46.980 in terms of democratic legitimacy having that elected majority i mean when you're polling at 11

00:07:52.980 to 14 percent and your main uh concern in order to to maintain that majority position is the

00:08:00.580 weakness of the ndp i would in if i was in that position i would be moving now i would be you know

00:08:06.900 if you win terabon that's almost to me a sign that hey we are in a stronger position than we

00:08:11.940 were just a year ago let's move on this let's run to the election but i mean i'm not a liberal

00:08:17.300 advisor but if i were in that position that's 100 what i would do just given the fact that

00:08:22.340 you want that majority you want you know four years and and also i think uh in the event that

00:08:28.900 you do get that majority in election usa you effectively put a bullet in pierre polio's career

00:08:33.940 uh political career as a leader yeah that that would that's a different discussion but yes

00:08:39.620 that was that would be terminal for him now uh i don't like to pitch this a little differently to

00:08:47.060 you there are five people running for the leadership of the ndp and they have very

00:08:52.900 different characteristics you talked about avi lewis talk to me now about avi lewis and then

00:09:01.540 we'll go over the other ones who is he and uh he's the one leading in terms of fundraising

00:09:07.700 and therefore presumably popularity so what's he like care does he represent so avi lewis obviously

00:09:16.020 is uh in a lot of people's opinion the front runner here he's a prominent activist documentary

00:09:21.940 filmmaker and a a long time we'll call him a family uh of politicians um his grandfather

00:09:30.100 grant father was uh former ndp leader david lewis um his fundraising puts him at about 1.2 million

00:09:37.700 and he is one of the leading climate activists in the ndp movement you also have which you know

00:09:45.860 is a name that probably will sound familiar to a lot of the viewers of this station

00:09:50.900 edmonton strathcona mp heather mcpherson she's the only sitting member of parliament in the race 0.84

00:09:56.820 whether or not her election changes the calculus on that is is an again another question entirely

00:10:02.740 uh carney's popularity in alberta has uh actually in i think it's gone up at least from the polls i

00:10:10.020 don't again i don't know if i believe that but you know i i do i think it's hard to underestimate

00:10:15.940 carney in this sense you've got a union leader rob ashton national president of the international

00:10:21.700 longshore and warehouse union of canada um his campaign emphasizes returning the party to its

00:10:27.700 working class roots so as opposed to like now where you have a lot of professional associations

00:10:33.860 like your teachers and your doctors and your lawyers that dominate the thought process there

00:10:38.580 a return to the blue collar workers uh would be a change for the ndp obviously that subsection was

00:10:44.660 not well represented under the leadership of jagmeet singh or his predecessors and then you

00:10:49.380 have tony mcquail as well um i and teniel johnson uh they're both kind of uh we'll see i mean i i

00:10:56.900 think they're also ran candidates but again to me i don't necessarily think that any one of these

00:11:01.540 five uh if you if you call the election fast enough will be able to establish themselves

00:11:06.900 and re-establish the ndp to to what it was under the leadership of jack layton who in a lot of

00:11:12.180 people's minds was that blue collar kind of a leader had that charisma so he looked like he

00:11:18.100 knew how to change his own back tire didn't he yeah exactly yeah that's a very appealing

00:11:22.340 characteristic of him so look on on the matter i think it does make a difference who wins you were

00:11:28.020 saying you didn't think it did but um some i i don't want to be unkind to somebody i've never

00:11:35.460 spoken to but there's one of these candidates from vancouver island who really i i don't know

00:11:40.980 what they're doing there uh it's not a point of view that's even well represented in the party

00:11:46.420 never mind nationally it's it's the hearts and flowers campaign so uh that's uh that's too bad

00:11:54.660 for uh tenille johnson and i think if she were elected it would be oh absolutely it would be a

00:12:02.980 it would be a shock yes rob ashton he he could be to the ndp what jack jack layton was or uh

00:12:18.340 he could be he you know a strong no bs kind of guy doesn't sound like one of the elites

00:12:28.660 and he isn't you mentioned heather mcpherson

00:12:35.540 maybe she is a school teacher i'm not sure but uh i know she's been involved in international

00:12:42.180 aid work and so forth all about palestine in in the last year

00:12:48.500 there is a market for that but i'm not sure it's the market that could take the

00:12:54.740 ndp over the top but here's what i'm thinking where mr lewis could where it would make a

00:13:02.420 difference it's got brand name recognition he's got good financing if he needs more financing

00:13:08.660 you'll have it and he can represent that part of the party that is deeply suspicious

00:13:14.020 of the conservative leanings of mr carney now let me say for people who are already talking

00:13:19.220 by conservative leadings of mr carney mr carney is not his predecessor and much as i disagree

00:13:27.700 with his policies they make sense in an orderly way like you can see how the one depends on the

00:13:33.780 other and it may not be working but at least it shows some smarts and some intelligence and he's

00:13:40.580 got a good way about him people people enjoy him that davos speech was actually uh not the speech

00:13:46.180 he should have made in davos at all but everybody says what a wonderful speech it is meanwhile he's

00:13:52.420 cutting the numbers of the civil service uh he's tightening up on trade and industry or says he

00:14:01.220 means to and these are things that could impact the ndp voter above all he doesn't look like he's

00:14:10.740 able to protect that very strong ndp voting base in in the car industry so what are they actually

00:14:20.020 going to be thanking him for so i put it to you that there are some weak points in mr carney's

00:14:29.460 overall presentation that would be exploited opened up and revealed to the world by a clever

00:14:36.740 NDP leader, and I'm going to make the assumption that given his family history, Mr. Lewis would

00:14:44.120 be capable of doing that, and then suddenly all of these safe liberal seats aren't safe

00:14:50.560 anymore.

00:14:51.520 And you say?

00:14:52.420 Well, I think we've seen that before.

00:14:54.380 We saw it in Alberta.

00:14:55.280 Rachel Notley won the NDP leadership in 2014, became the premier in 2015.

00:15:00.600 I mean, there's always that, you know, threat out there.

00:15:05.960 I just, you know, with the timing again, and this is a strategy conversation, any one of those candidates could potentially build the NDP up to what Jack Layton had it.

00:15:15.440 They've all got, you know, characteristics they bring to the table, but I think they all need time to do it.

00:15:20.920 I don't think you can become the leader on April the 27th and then 28 days later win an election.

00:15:28.180 I think if the Liberals move fast, they essentially take the element of time away from the NDP.

00:15:33.420 And if you do that, you effectively neuter whoever the leader is.

00:15:38.220 So in a sense, I don't mean like that the NDP is forever irrelevant.

00:15:43.040 I just mean that from a strategic standpoint, if the Liberals move on election soon, that they could potentially secure four more years of majority rule without having to use, we'll call it less than savory methods of obtaining full power in Ottawa.

00:15:59.740 So you are making the assumption, then, that whoever the new leader of the NDP turns out to be, they couldn't improve on Jagmeet Singh's dreadful numbers in the 2025 election.

00:16:16.520 I don't want to say you couldn't improve because that is a pretty low bar to begin with.

00:16:21.120 but in terms of enough to pull enough votes away especially i mean like if the polls stay where

00:16:26.960 they are where you're at you know a 56 approval rating i think he was a plus 20 from pauliev yeah

00:16:34.000 um it's just with the windows that it is and again we'll see like maybe maybe the polls are

00:16:39.120 off maybe tarabon sends a message maybe the block holds out there or maybe the liberals somehow pull

00:16:45.440 with pull away with a bigger majority i think there's a lot that's going to be told in these

00:16:49.520 three by-elections but if the ndp like and again i think the by-elections happen before the

00:16:56.560 leadership race is up so i mean it's going to be tough to tell what the ndp go but unless you get

00:17:01.600 a candidate that gives you that immediate bump i don't necessarily see a way that if the liberals

00:17:07.680 move quickly and call an early election to get that majority it's going to make it very difficult

00:17:12.960 not just for polyev especially with and this is something we haven't really talked about it's a

00:17:16.880 a different conversation trump uh for better or for worse has is is a specter over this entire

00:17:23.840 conversation i noticed there's a lot of anti-american sentiment that has developed from this

00:17:30.000 and it may just be one of those things where carney as a liberal is viewed as a more of a

00:17:36.320 democrat in in a lot of people's minds and it it it it will call it trump derangement syndrome

00:17:42.560 um where carney's almost in a way publicly viewed as the antidote to that and poly have can't come

00:17:48.640 up against it but you know just from a strategic standpoint if i'm if i'm if i'm the liberal

00:17:54.800 government and i want power for four years i'm looking at the monday after the ndp puts their

00:18:02.080 leadership candidate in into this position to call the election no matter who that candidate is

00:18:08.640 well they they're their masters are doing that they did it to stock all day 25 years ago so

00:18:13.520 and i'm sure there's a little book in the side drawer there they pull out what to do when you

00:18:18.640 you know when when you have just your opposition party has just elected a new leader go to an

00:18:23.760 election or meeting yeah you know yeah yeah yeah rule number 10 subsection two yeah we'll have to

00:18:28.480 get we'll have to get uh jean cretchen to comment on that yeah and he'd be happy to tell you look i

00:18:33.680 i i i think that um i don't think they'll go for it i think they've got too much to risk but you

00:18:39.040 think that they will one of us will be proven right by the end of what mark april you saying

00:18:44.960 i think uh april 27th march 27th the 29th yeah so then mr connie drops the election uh written

00:18:54.160 april one april fool's day or yeah that's your last word on the sunday that's my guess that is uh

00:19:00.640 yeah that is my uh that is my prognostication i could be completely wrong but uh i just if i'm

00:19:07.120 if i'm mark carney that's what i'm doing that's 100 what i'm doing okay well that just uh tell me

00:19:14.240 this we we've got one minute left naheed nenshi is the ndp leader in alberta do you think he's

00:19:23.760 wishing that he was part of the fund back there ah yes and no i mean

00:19:30.480 personally i i don't think he's performed uh up to what the ndp were hoping when they elected him

00:19:37.200 as leader um whether or not he wishes he wasn't the leader of the provincial ndp and is playing

00:19:43.360 in the federal sandbox which i think is the question i i can't comment um i know that when

00:19:48.880 people get into positions of authority they have a hard time walking away from that no matter what

00:19:54.320 it is and that the concept of maybe not of walking away from power to become leader of the federal

00:20:00.880 ndp um i'm gonna you know obviously i commute to work every day and the big thing that we're

00:20:07.200 dealing with in calgary now is the water crisis i don't think that's a good look for nancy anyways 1.00

00:20:12.080 so maybe uh he is regretting not going to the federal but that would just make that a national

00:20:17.600 story as opposed to a provincial one so uh i don't know how he's feeling right now but uh

00:20:23.920 if you're in the if i were still in the alberta government i would say that

00:20:30.880 i'm happy that nahed nenshi is the leader of the official opposition in alberta

00:20:36.560 because i don't think he's doing a fantastic job and i think you may be right josh andrus

00:20:43.120 a new face here at the western standard and a welcome one at that nice to have you back

00:20:50.400 and good luck with everything you do especially in the red tape production so josh thank you

00:20:57.380 very much and for the western standard i'm nigel hannaford

00:21:13.120 Thank you.

Western Standard - March 20, 2026

Liberals waiting to pounce？

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